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A rare disease exists in which only 1 in 500 are affected. A test for the disease exists

but of course it is not infallible. A correct positive result (patient actually has the disease)

occurs 95% of the time while a false positive result (patient does not have the disease)

occurs 1% of the time.

Let A is the event that a randomly selected person affected by the disease.

Let is the event that the test result is positive for the disease.

The above information can be translated in terms of probabilities as shown below:

1

1

499

P A 1

500

500 500

P | A 95% 0.95

P A

P | A 1% 0.01

If a randomly selected individual is tested and the result is positive, then the probability

that the individual has the disease is,

P A |

P A P | A

P A P | A P A P | A

0.95

500

1

499

0.95

0.01

500

500

0.1599

Problem 2:

Bev can either take a course in computers or in chemistry. If Bev takes the computer

course, then she will receive an A grade with probability 1/2; if she takes the chemistry

course then she will receive an A grade with probability 1/3. Bev decides to base her

decision on the flip of a fair coin.

Let B1 is the event that Bev can take the course in computers.

Let B1 is the event that Bev can take the course in chemistry.

Let E is the event that a Bev will receive an A grade in the course taken.

The above information can be translated in terms of probabilities as shown below:

1

2

1

P B2

2

P B1

1

2

1

P E | B2

3

The probability that Bev will get an A in chemistry is,

P E | B1

P B2 | E

P B2 P E | B2

P B1 P E | B1 P B2 P E | B2

1 1

2 3

1 1 1 1

2 2 2 3

0.4

Problem 3:

A laboratory blood test is 95 percent effective in detecting a certain disease when it is, in

fact, present. However, the test also yields a false positive result for 1 percent of the

healthy persons tested. (That is, if a healthy person is tested, then, with probability 0.01,

the test result will imply he has the disease.) If 0.5 percent of the population actually has

the disease, find the probability a person has the disease given that his test result is positive.

Let A is the event that a randomly selected person has the disease.

Let is the event that the test result is positive for the disease.

The above information can be translated in terms of probabilities as shown below:

P A 0.5% 0.005 P A 1 0.005 0.995

P | A 95% 0.95

P | A 1% 0.01

The the probability a person has the disease given that his test result is positive is,

P A |

P A P | A

P A P | A P A P | A

0.005 0.95

0.005 0.95 0.995 0.01

0.3231

Problem 4:

A construction company employs two sales engineers. Engineer 1 does the work of

estimating cost for 70% of jobs bid by the company. Engineer 2 does the work for

30% of jobs bid by the company. It is known that the error rate for engineer 1 is such

that 0.02 is the probability of an error when he does the work, whereas the probability

of an error in the work of engineer 2 is 0.04. Suppose a bid arrives and a serious error

occurs in estimating cost. Which engineer would you guess did the work.

Let B1 is the event that the estimating cost of a randomly selected bid worked out by

Engineer 1.

Let B2 is the event that the estimating cost of a randomly selected bid worked out by

Engineer 2.

Let E is the event that a serious error occurs in estimating cost.

The above information can be translated in terms of probabilities as shown below:

P B1 70% 0.7

P B2 30% 0.3

P E | B1 0.02

P E | B2 0.02

Suppose a bid arrives and a serious error occurs in estimating cost.

Then the probability that the bid was estimated by Engineer 1:

P B1 P E | B1

P B1 | E

P B1 P E | B1 P B2 P E | B2

0.70 0.02

0.70 0.02 0.30 0.04

0.5385

P B2 | E

P B2 P E | B2

P B1 P E | B1 P B2 P E | B2

0.30 0.04

0.70 0.02 0.30 0.04

0.4615

Since P B1 | E is slightly higher than P B2 | E , Engineer 1 would have more chance

to did the work.

Problem 5:

Of three cards, one is painted red on both sides, one is painted black on both sides and one

is painted red on one side and black on the other. A card is randomly chosen and placed

on a table.

Let E1 , E2 , and E3 are the three events that randomly selecting the card with red on both sides,

the card with black on both sides, and the card with red on one side and black on other side

respectively.

Let R is the event that the side facing up is red.

1

1

, also P R | E1 1, P R | E2 0, P R | E3 .

3

2

If the side facing up is red, the probability the other side is also red:

P E1 P E2 P E3

P E1 | R

P E1 P R | E1

P E1 P R | E1 P E2 P R | E2 P E3 P R | E3

By Baye's theorem

1

1

3

1

1

1 1

1 0

3

3

3 2

2

3

Problem 6:

Burger City is a large chain of fast-food restaurants specializing in gourmet hamburgers.

A mathematical model is now used to predict the success of new restaurants based on

location and demographic information for that area. In the past, 70% of all restaurants

that were opened were successful. The mathematical model has been tested in the existing

restaurants to determine how effective it is. For the restaurants that were successful, 90%

of the time the model predicted they would be, while 10% of the time the model predicted

a failure. For the restaurants that were not successful, when the mathematical model was

applied, 20% of the time it incorrectly predicted a successful restaurant while 80% of the

time it was accurate and predicted an unsuccessful restaurant.

Let S is the event that a randomly selected restaurant was successful.

Let A be the event that the model predicts the restaurent as successful.

P S 70% 0.70

P S 1 0.70 0.30

P A | S 90% 0.90

P A | S 10% 0.10

P A | S 20% 0.20

P A | S 80% 0.80

If the model is used on a new location and predicts the restaurant will be successful, the

probability that it actually is successful:

P S | A

PS P A | S

P S P A | S P S P A | S

By Baye's theorem

0.70 0.90

0.70 0.90 0.30 0.20

0.91

Problem 7:

The American Council of Education reported that 47% of college freshmen earn a degree

and graduate within five years (Associated Press, May 6, 2002). Assume that graduation

records show women make up 50% of the students who graduated within five years, but

only 45% of the students who did not graduate within five years. The students who had

not graduated within five years either dropped out or were still working on their degrees.

a. Let A1 the student graduated within five years A2 the student did not graduate within

five years W the student is a female student Using the given information, the values for

P A1 , P A2 , P W | A1 , and P W | A2 are:

P A1 47%

0.47

P A2 1 47%

1 0.47

0.53

P W | A1 50%

0.50

P W | A2 45%

0.45

By total probability rule the probability that a the student is a female student:

P W P A1 P W | A1 P A2 P W | A2

0.47 0.50 0.53 0.45

0.4735

By complementary probability rule the probability that a the student is a male student:

P W 1 P W 1 0.4735 0.5265

b. The probability that a female student will graduate within five years:

P A1 | W

P A1 W

P W

P A1 P W | A1

P W

0.47 0.50

0.4735

0.4963

c. The probability that a male student will graduate within five years:

P A1 | W

P A1 W

P W

P A1 P W | A1

P W

P A1 1 P W | A1

P W

0.47 1 0.50

0.5265

0.47 0.50

0.5265

0.4463

d. Given the preceding results, the percentage of women and the percentage

of men in the entering freshman class are:

The percentage that a the student is a female student,

P W 0.4735 The required percentage 47.35% .

The percentage that a the student is a male student,

P W 0.5265 The required percentage 52.65% .

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