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COMPUTER SCIENTIST and now you can either anticipate in the resolution of all human cannot see into

the resolution of all human cannot see into the future to predict prediction that individual human and gaseous states of matter: the world (initially under the direction of
science-fiction writer Vernor or scoff at many different kinds problems, including illness and anything. “Machine intelligence” brains (and most probably their state becomes fundamentally different but humans) design the next generation of

Who’s Who In Vinge sketched out a seminal

modern singularity hypothesis
of singularities. Perhaps the
most inclusive variant is the one
limited life span. The “event
horizon” idea corresponds most
represents the prediction that
computers will achieve human-level
of consciousness) will be replicable in
computerized form, leading to (among
in ways that may not be immediately
perceptible to individuals immersed
machines, eventually superintelligent
levels will be reached. The effect is

The Singularity
15 years ago in his essay “The we label “technotopia,” the closely to Vinge’s original: a con- intelligence and either consciousness other things) virtual immortality. Kevin in it at the time. The “intelligence similar to the accelerating rate of
Coming Technological Singularity.” scenario in which computers fluence of technological changes, or something indistinguishable from it. Kelly’s “phase change” hypothesis explosion” hypothesis, initially technological change anticipated by
Since then lots of other people reach and exceed human levels of most likely including machine “Uploading,” which is also part of likens the singularity to the changes developed by Turing associate I.J. technotopians, but the path for getting
have taken up the cause, so intelligence, essentially resulting intelligence, beyond which we the technotopian vision, refers to the between the solid and liquid or liquid Goode, postulates that as machines there is different. —Paul Wallich

Created several Technotopia The basic paradigm of Moore’s Law— “I regard the freeing of the human mind Plans to release a movie Built the first neural Machine Our increasing knowledge of the brain “I asked the audience how many people Thinks that belief in
enormously successful —accelerating exponentially increasing improvement— from its severe physical limitations of later this year based on Marvin network simulator intelligence/ and increasing computing power will wanted to live for 200 years, and no one a singularity could
Raymond inventions, including change will not only hold true indefinitely for logic scope and duration as the necessary his book The Singularity Minsky in 1951. Received the uploading eventually intersect. raised their hand.” inspire people in the
Kurzweil ones for pattern, circuits but will also apply to countless next step in evolution.” Is Near. To maximize his Professor of Turing Award in 1969. Currently, however, way that World War II
character, and speech other technologies. It will lead to a chances of living until media arts and Developed a theory of the resources being —“It’s 2001: Where Is HAL?” inspired his generation.
Entrepreneur, recognition; electronic singularity that will enable us to upload —“The Law of Accelerating his consciousness mind involving small devoted to such Information Week podcast, 1 March 2007
sciences and of
inventor, author musical instruments; and our consciousness into machines and, in Returns” (http://www. can be downloaded, subunits of expertise. work are negligible (;
of popular books medical education. effect, live indefinitely. This singularity will he reportedly takes compared with search on “minsky podcast”)
engineering and
on the singularity occur in about 15 years. art0134.html?printable=1) upward of 200 the amount of
computer science, MIT
vitamin pills a day. work to be done.
Wrote Mind Children and Machine The processes of the brain that give “The 1500-cubic-centimeter Now works full-time at Has written many Machine Human-level AI may be inevitable, “The best reason for believing that robots Leading
other books on artificial intelligence rise to consciousness arise inevitably human brain is about 100 000 times a small machine-vision
Daniel books about the nature intelligence but don’t expect it anytime soon. “I might someday become conscious is member
Hans intelligence and robotics. and uniquely from chains of physical as large as the retina, suggesting that start-up. Dennett of consciousness and don’t deny the possibility a priori; I just that we human beings are conscious, of the
Moravec events and in accordance with matching overall human behavior Codirector of intelligence, including think it is vanishingly unlikely in the and we are a sort of robot ourselves.” Brights,
Adjunct physical principles. They are therefore will take about 100 million MIPS of the Center Brainstorms: Philosophical foreseeable future.” (From Dennett’s book Cognition, a group
professor, reproducible with a sufficiently computer power.” for Cognitive Essays on Mind and Computation, and Consciousness, 1994) dedicated to promoting
Carnegie- powerful computer. Studies and Psychology (1978), The “the civic understanding
—“When Will Computer Hardware
Mellon Robotics professor of Intentional Stance (1989), and acknowledgment
Match the Human Brain?” Journal of
Institute philosophy, Consciousness Explained of the naturalistic
Evolution and Technology, 1998 (http://
Tufts University (1991), and Brainchildren— worldview, which is free
Essays on Designing Minds of supernatural and
Cofounded World Technotopia Assuming that we don’t render ourselves “I would…assign less than a 50% Had a short career as (1998). mystical elements.”
Transhumanist extinct, technological progress should probability to superintelligence being a stand-up comic. Has built many robots Technotopia Any extrapolation of technological trends, “I am a machine. Was featured in the
Nick Association; writes lead to superintelligence and indefinitely developed by 2033.” that emulate the behavior particularly exponential ones, decades So are you.” 1997 movie Fast, Cheap,
Bostrom extensively on machine extended life spans; once the singularity Rodney of simple animals. One into the future isn’t likely to be accurate. (p. 71 in this issue) and Out of Control.
intelligence, life extension, comes near, we will all be kicking ourselves —“How Long Before Superintelligence?” crucial aspect of his
Director, Future of and philosophical for not having brought it about sooner. ( Brooks
work is demonstrating
Humanity Institute, issues surrounding the superintelligence.html) Professor of how little cognition,
Oxford University singularity. robotics, MIT understanding, or memory
is required for apparently
Wrote the critically Event horizon— In a seminal 1993 essay, he wrote of “In my 1993 essay, ‘The Coming A chapter of his recent complex behaviors.
Vernor acclaimed novels A Fire fundamentally the period following the development Technological Singularity,’ I said I’d novel, Rainbows End, Coined the term virtual Machine There’s no real evidence that computer “If computers are to become smart Wrote an entertaining
Upon the Deep (Hugo unpredictable of machine intelligence: “From the be surprised if the singularity had not grew out of a story
Vinge Award, 1993) and A human point of view this change will happened by 2030. I’ll stand by that he published in the Jaron Lanier
reality; was CEO of VPL intelligence representation of a brain will actually enough to design their own successors, 1995 essay in the Journal
Research, a pioneering produce a mind. Furthermore, true AI initiating a process that will lead to God- of Consciousness Studies
Science-fiction Deepness in the Sky be a throwing away of all the previous claim.” (p. 77 in this issue) July 2004 issue of Interdisciplinary virtual-reality start-up. can’t arise from current patterns of like omniscience after a number of ever titled “You Can’t Argue
author; professor (1993); tackled issues rules, perhaps in the blink of an eye, an IEEE Spectrum. scholar-in- software development because those swifter passages from one generation With a Zombie.” It
of computer that included human exponential runaway beyond any hope of residence at patterns are fatally flawed. Meanwhile, of computers to the next, someone is zinged Daniel Dennett,
science at San confrontation with control. Developments that before were the Center for accelerating technological change going to have to write the software that Daniel Dennett’s critics,
Diego State superintelligent thought might only happen in ‘a million Entrepreneurship could still make the world as we know it gets the process going, and humans have Dartmouth students,
University for beings. years’ (if ever) will likely happen in the & Technology, nearly unrecognizable. given absolutely no evidence of being and philosopher David
28 years (retired) next century.” University of able to write such software.” Chalmers, among others.
California, Sample line: “Arrogance
Has developed a theory Intelligence Each generation of intelligent human- “Deep Blue’s engineers Working on the Berkeley —“One-Half of a Manifesto,” Wired, is always a bad strategy
for building “friendly” explosion machine collaborations uses its might say, ‘We have development of December 2000 ( in science. In philosophy
artificial intelligences increased intelligence to design the next no idea what chess machine wired/archive/8.12/lanier.html) I suppose it’s fine.”
Eliezer whose goals will generation. The more intelligence, the moves the machine metaethics so that
Yudkowsky not change as they faster the cycle goes, until intelligences will make, but we superintelligences John Invented genetic Machine In order to combine building blocks and Uncritical believers in the singularity Believes that the more
Research fellow, Holland programming, one of intelligence selectively “breed” them to form ever “think evolution is like monkeys at people know about the
themselves evolve. appear with capacities far beyond know they’ll be great can develop moral
Singularity Institute the key technologies the more intelligent programs, you have to the typewriter, and if you just type technologies that will
those of unaided humans. Eventually, moves.’ ” (Interview reasoning beyond the Professor of
for Artificial singularitarians have have the building blocks fast enough you’ll get somewhere.” supposedly bring about
essentially all the work will be done on with author) current level while still computer science
Intelligence claimed will lead to in the first place. (Interview with author) the singularity, the
the machine side. retaining predictable and engineering superintelligent machines. more aware they will
characteristics. and professor of be of the limitations of
psychology, those technologies.
University of
Studies the neural basis of Machine To create thinking machines, we have to “Consciousness does not seem to require Runs up a 1700-meter- Michigan
Christof consciousness. intelligence understand what it is—both biologically many of the things we associate most high mountain “every
Has written many — His “Chinese Room” thought “I believe that there is no objection Was a member of
Koch and philosophically—that makes humans deeply with being human.” couple of weeks.”
books on the brain and experiment explains why a bare in principle to constructing an the UC Berkeley Free
conscious beings. (p. 56 in this issue)
Professor of consciousness, including CPU cannot understand the intent of artificial hardware system that Speech movement in
cognitive and John Minds, Brains, and Science the program it executes. Only organisms would duplicate the powers of the early 1960s.
behavioral Searle (1985) and The Mystery of embodied in the real world, with real the brain to cause consciousness
biology, Caltech Professor of Consciousness (1997). experiences to draw on, can become using some chemistry different
philosophy, truly conscious and intelligent. All else from neurons. But to produce
University of is merely symbol manipulation. consciousness any such system would
California, have to duplicate the actual causal
Wrote Out of Control: The Phase change Singularities are pervasive changes in “The word technology was only coined Popularized the
Berkeley powers of the brain.”
New Biology of Machines, the state of the world that are often in 1829, but they’d been doing it for “Maes-Garreau point,”
Social Systems, and the recognizable only in retrospect. As a centuries by then.” (Interview with which observes that —“I Married a Computer,” review of
Kevin Economic World (1995) result, the singularity is always near, but author) most predictions of Kurzweil’s The Age of Spiritual Machines,
Kelly and other works on whether the current wave of technological positive technological The New York Review of Books,
Senior maverick, technology and society. progress constitutes a singularity is revolution fall just 8 April 1999
Wired magazine impossible to tell. within the life span of
the person doing the
Expounded on Albert — Consciousness cannot be duplicated “I’m not saying that consciousness is Invented Penrose tiles,
Einstein’s general theory in computational machines, because beyond physics…although I’m saying that a shape capable of
predicting. Roger of relativity. Wrote The it depends on “noncomputational it’s beyond the physics we know now.” covering an infinite
Cofounded Sun Event horizon As computer science, biotech, and “The future doesn’t need us.” Has called for voluntary Penrose Nature of Space and Time physical processes.” Does not know (From Penrose’s book The Third Culture: plane in a nonperiodic
Microsystems. nanotechnology advance, it will become renunciation or at least Physicist and with Stephen Hawking what these might be but suggests it Beyond the Scientific Revolution, 1995) fashion.
easier and easier for small groups or even —“Why the Future Doesn’t Need Us,” a delay of research into professor of and The Emperor’s New emerges from “large-scale” quantum-
Bill Joy individuals to create incredibly destructive Wired, April 2000 (http://www.wired. fields that offer easy mathematics, Mind, about computation mechanical phenomena in microtubules
Venture things. Unless measures are taken, com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html) extinction of humanity. Oxford and consciousness. in the brain’s neurons.
capitalist eventually this will happen. University

Singularity color code: ■ True believer: thinks it will happen within 30 years ■ Yes, but... ■ Maybe someday ■ No way