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- http://bg.panlv.

net

2011 10 10

2-3 2011
283 200%
2011 2012


86212025 2602
qiushiliang@chinastock.com.cn
S0130511080004

86212025 2629
zourunfang@chinastock.com.cn
S0130511080003

86106656 8946
juhoulin@chinastock.com.cn
S0130511010007

86106656 8477
wanghuajun@chinastock.com.cn

5000
2

5000
250-300
43%

23

11-09-06

11-08-19

11-06-21

11-05-25

11-04-27

11-03-21
11-02-24

EPS()

PEX

11-13EPS

2011E

2012E

2013E

2011E

2012E

2013E

CAGR

002564.SZ

17.11

0.63

0.90

1.25

27.16

19.01

13.69

41%

22-27

002430.SZ

23.20

0.81

1.05

1.40

28.64

22.10

16.57

33%

29-34

www.chinastock.com.cn

11-04-

- http://bg.panlv.net


GDP

50% 1
2
2-3
2011
283 200%

2011 2012
3
5000
2 50%
50% 5000
25-30%

1250-1500 250-300
43%

2011 2012

- http://bg.panlv.net


....................................................................................................... 1
.................................................................................................. 1
............................................................................................................... 1
................................................................................................................... 2

2 ........................................................................................................... 4
GDP ....................................................................................... 4
GDP ............................................................................................... 8
......................................................................................................... 11
.................................................................................................. 12

......................................................................................................................................... 16
....................................................................................................................................... 16
......................................................................... 17
.................................................................................................. 20
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5000 ................................................................................................. 25
5000 ................................................................................................ 25

43% ............................................................................ 25
........................................................................... 29
............................................................................... 30

............................................................................................................................................................. 33
............................................................................................................................ 33
.................................................................................................. 34

...................................................................................................................................................................... 37
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- http://bg.panlv.net

2011 209%
2-3

6-18
3-5
5

2011 2012
1

2 EPC


GDP

50%
1

- http://bg.panlv.net

2011 590 2010


209% 283 200% 2011
56.62

- http://bg.panlv.net

100
300,000m3/h 1,000 /
240,000m3/h

524

524

GEA SPX

Flowserve

ITT Flowserve KSB

- http://bg.panlv.net

2015 260
80 600 360 100 100
800

2
2

8000
870

5557 27
4

4000 200 200


320 87 2020 2000

1000 300 200 2010 140


100 106

2015 260
80 600 360 100 100
800

GDP
1

- http://bg.panlv.net

70%
2010 32.5 2000 2.23
8.36% 2010 2.27 2000
2.25 8.48%
5
()

40

6 70%

28.1

30

29.1

20%
30.7

100%

32.5
15%

25.9

80%

23.6
21.3

60%

18.4

20
14.6

15.0

10%

15.9

40%

10

69.2

68.3

68.0

69.8

69.5

70.8

71.1

71.1

70.3

70.4

70.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

5%
20%

0%
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0%

50%

GDP

- http://bg.panlv.net

1
2 8
GDP

3
GDP

60

48

50

60

60

60

60

60

60

10

60

11

60

12

120

13

60

14

60

15

60

16

20

17

67

18

60

19

140

20

100

21

122

22

120

23

20

2000

- http://bg.panlv.net

2009 8

40

2010 3

40

2009 12

16

55

40

80

40

40

40

10

40

11

40

12

40

13

100

14

40

15

40

16

30

17

40

18

20

19

40

1500

120

20

20

20

20

20

50

40

40

10

60

11

40

12

20

400

- http://bg.panlv.net

GDP
1 6000

108 16 50
60 20
100 10
40
16

876.25 1~7 488.03


1000 60

2011

3000 / 30 /

157 146

100 /

88 58
6014.95

16
16 20

142 108 /18

2015
1000
780
100
140
300
100

16 2011 716
() 430 60
100 20 2011
350 300 150 60
3 16
20 20 2011
20 20 40
40 80
80 6 280

2011 7 8

4
45 533 86
620

4
30 52
40 60
135 240
500
1100
200 200

6000

- http://bg.panlv.net

2015 1000 780


100 140 300
100

2011 7 13 8

2009 9

(
[2010]617 )

2.19
40%

6250
167 20.3% 4
36.81 / 14.72 / 4
706.2 18.5%
9

10

2015 200 360 240


500 170 100 50 PVC
1

- http://bg.panlv.net

55 13.75 2011 10
2013 55 2013 2015
110 2011 55.5
60 2011 22 31 2014

100 20 2011 25 2013


40
100 40 40 180
40 40 40
540 2011 360 25

2013

600 200 180 60 60

180 60 60 140 46
2011 2~3
100 30

20 30

PVC

3052 95 4070 7
2150 90 95
12 PVC
50 PVC 98

55
2011 10 60
100 60

2011 10 540
636 540
180 2011 5 20
180 60 211 2011 6
2011 4-5
2011 1 20
36 82.87

10

- http://bg.panlv.net

100 20 100

2009

320
2

270

2010

263.4 320

2010

277 55 13.75

2010

636 540 180

2011 5

180 60 211

2011 6

600 200 60 180


7

60 60 140 46
100 40 40 180

40 40 40

2011 1~2

100 30

10

20 30

1 4000

4000
2020
3000 1
52
60
9

108 /

123

2008-12-30

18 /

18 /

15

2009-12-18

60 /

170

2010-8-8

550

52 18.48
4.12 1.38

11

- http://bg.panlv.net

2 1000

46 /
40 / 40 /
20 / 14 /
50 / 28 /

1000

3 2000

2.27 5

2000 21.76
16

636 540 180


2011 5 540

12011 590 209%

1953 9
6

12

- http://bg.panlv.net

10 9 6

30 / 60 /

120 /

5000 /50 /

30 / 60 /

2011 590 2010


209%2011
48%
2011 9 16 2011 8
2011 805.58 82.87 20

13

- http://bg.panlv.net

112011

DUYEN HAI3

150 /

50

2011-8-26

83.98

2011-8-5

50

48.51

2011-7-11

68.3

2011-6-25

20.8

2011-6-16

53.2

2011-6-15

27.3

2011-5-31

10.3

2011-5-14

24.2

2011-4-13

4.76

2011-3-17

14.7

2011-3-2

18

10.6

2011-2-22

18

13.8

2011-2-22

33

11

2011-2-22

33

82.87

2011-1-20

36

2011-1-13

48

200 / 350 /
/

200 / 350 /

15 /
10 1,4-

72 /
4X5 KW

15 /

250MW

50 / PVC

250MW

AT88

LNG

1.5 /

40 /30 /

100 100 120

20

LNG

4.05

2011-1-13

24

3000 /

4.5

2011-1-13

10

540.87

22011

14

- http://bg.panlv.net

2011

2011 56.62
54.16 ; 2.46

122011

EPC

Nm3/a

120 / 60 /

104224

2011-9-13

21

3315

2011-7-26

36

3000

2011-6-28

15

90600

2011-6-7

25

2700

2011-5-24

13

6200

2011-5-19

16

141482

2011-1-27

29

304710

2011-1-14

26

320 Nm3/a 20

60 80

200 /350 /

10 /

30 /
20

30 /

656231

15

- http://bg.panlv.net

2009

13

2006 12

2006 2020 1
50% 2020 3000

2000 800

6600
1

2009 5

2009 9

2010 6

2010 12

2011 3

2011


100 /

2011 4

2 50 100

100

16

- http://bg.panlv.net

2006 12
2006 2020 1
50% 10% 2020 3000
2000 800
6600
2009

2010 12

2011 7 40 60

2009 9
2011 4
50 100
100
50
100

()

1923 40 500
1924 45

1937 1943
1945
1959 70 4.7 1967

1973 13 1000
1620 1740 8 5

17

- http://bg.panlv.net

13

13
80

14

1924

1937 1943
1923-1967

1967
1973 13

80
1968-2005

11

18

- http://bg.panlv.net

10
15

()

()
2008 12 30 2010 8 24

()

()

5578 52.36
108

123
2008-12-30

90.94% 56%~57%
2011 3700 46.7
8
2011 5 1 509 12236

(
)

16

80.52 16.16 10.34

22
2009-3-20

()

4.8 0.89 8.75

40

25

2009-9

2009 9 70%

20

18

2009-12

2009 12 100 20

60

170

2010-8-8

2010 8 MTO 39

31%2009 8

40

77

()

8.1

2012

40

66

4%2010 2013

16

88.7

2009 12

300

210

7
()

8

()

55

10

13.75

278

2011

55 2011

19

- http://bg.panlv.net

16

Shell 29

12

13 Shell

1
400 / 20 7%
60 / 600 /
74 /
35 40-50
70

2011 9 30
5500 670 / 5000
625 / 5600 500 /
5000 360 / 5500 500 /6200
640 / 4000 435 / 5000
600 / 5200 754 / 6300-6900
983 / 6300 188 /
5800 880-890 /5500 835-845
/5000 745-755 /
2011 100 / 9 30

20

- http://bg.panlv.net

188 / 360 /

142011 100 /

15
2011930
1000
880
800
670
600

500
360

400
200

188

2
2011 5 2011
21.6
2008 12 30
1
2011
3700 46.7 8
16 2009 3 2010
7 2011
5 1 509 12236 80.52 16.16
10.34 4.8 0.89 8.75

21

- http://bg.panlv.net

16

17

16

2.04

6.4

4~4.5

4.11

6.06

10~12

8~9

12~14

18

22

- http://bg.panlv.net

17

MTO,MTP

77.8

77.5

F-T

71.9

70.1

67.6

67.3

65.1

59.9

70%

2010 1.5 960 Nm3 398

18

9001300

4204801020Mpa

23

- http://bg.panlv.net

19

()

LPG ()

1.3-1.4

()

1.0-1.1

(MTO)

3.0-3.2

(MTP)

3.0-3.2

()

6.1

24

- http://bg.panlv.net

5000
5000

2 50%
1
50%
40% 10%
50% 5000
20

19 50%

40%

20%

25%

5%

10%

50%

30%

20%

43%
25-30%

1250-1500 250-300
2009 2007
20082009 385465
40%

25

- http://bg.panlv.net

21 40%

600

60%

500

50%

400

40%

43%

300

30%

200

20%

100

10%

0%
2007

2008

2009

2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

H2S

22 16 1

23 16 2

26

- http://bg.panlv.net

24 16 3

25

40 /
2040 /

3800Mark-IV

48

3200/3800

18

46

46

46

45000 /

46

500t/h

46

10

11

12

27

- http://bg.panlv.net

524

21

PTA

C3

PVC


524

PTA

28

- http://bg.panlv.net

TexacoShellGSP
LurgiHT-L GSP
GSP
Texaco
Shell
23 GSP
GSP
26

HT-L SHELL GSP


TEXACO

22

20 /

2006 10

2008 10

2007 1

2008 10

29

- http://bg.panlv.net

23

30 /

2800/3200 2

30 /

2800/3200 2

30 /

3200/3800 1

120 /

3200/3800 4

30 /

2800/3200 2

18 /

2800/3200 1

30 /

2800/3200 2

60 /

3200/3800 2

30 /52

2800/3200 2

10

45 /

2800/3200 3

40 /60

2800/3200 2

11

23

20 / 9
1500 75*9=675
1500
100
24

20 /

3200/3800 9

- 20 /

3200/3800 9

20

2800/3200 2

20

, Texaco
LurgiShell

300,000m3/h
120,000m3/h
1,000 /
240,000m3/h
100,000m3/h

30

- http://bg.panlv.net

1,200,000m3/h

27 6

28 4

25

1
2
3
4
5
6

100

100

1000 /

100

300000m /h
120000m /h
240000m /h
100000m /h
3

30

30

30000m /h
40000m /h

31

- http://bg.panlv.net

26
3

m /h

600004

2007

480006

2007

580003

2006

60000

2004

60000

2004

52000

2005

52000

2004

52000

2004

51800

2004

10

50000 2

2004

11

48000

2005

12

48000

2003

13

48000

2003

14

48000

2003

15

48000

2003

16

48000

2005

17

40000

2004

18

40000

2002

19

40000

1993

20

30000

2005

21

30000 2

2005

22

28000

1998

23

18000

2002

24

14000

1998

25

11000 3

1993

26

10000

1994

27

7500

1999

28

6000

1993

29

6000

1991

30

2000

2000

32

- http://bg.panlv.net

2011 3
40% 20112013 0.63 0.90 1.25

27

5
6

10

PTA

1.
50%

,
2011 636 540

33

- http://bg.panlv.net

30

2.
2011 5 20 25 2.5
40180 4180

EPC

3.
6
3

30

2013 30%
2011 35 2012 30 22-27

1
2
3

2010
23.88 2.58 15

2011-2013 2011-2013

34

- http://bg.panlv.net

0.81 1.05 1.40


27-32 29-34
282008
3

(m /h)

m /h
20,000

20,000 40,000

40,000

1,000,155

99,155

339,200

561,800

546,580

205,580

251,000

90,000

530,000

530,000

184,000

257,400

77,400

98,000

82,000

429,900

380,900

49,000

2,948,035

763,035

737,200

1,447,800

184,000

1.

COREX IGCC

10%
2.
5
8% 2015 520
5 5% 2015 5300
11 12
3.

35

- http://bg.panlv.net

2\
60

10% 30%~40%
3

2011-2013 0.81 1.05 1.40


27-32 29-34

36

- http://bg.panlv.net


1 ................................................................................................. 1
2 EPC ......................................................................................................................................... 1
3 .............................................................................................................................................. 2
4 .................................................................................................................................................. 2
5 ............................................................................................................................... 5
6 70% ....................................................................................................................... 5
7.................................................................................................................... 5
8 ................................................................................................. 5
9..................................................................................................... 9
10 ......................................................................................................................... 9
11............................. 18
12.................................................................................................................... 20
13 Shell .................................................................................................. 20
142011 100 / ....................................................................................... 21
15 ......................................................................................... 21
16 ............................................................................................................................... 22
17................................................................................................. 22
18 ...................................................................................................................................... 22
19 50% ................................................................................................................... 25
20.................................................................................................................... 25
21
40% ............................................................................... 26
22 16 1 ............................................................................................................ 26
23 16 2 ............................................................................................................ 26
24 16 3 ............................................................................................................ 27
25 ..................................................................................... 27
26 ..................................................................................... 29
27 6 ..................................................................................... 31
28 4 ..................................................................................... 31

37

- http://bg.panlv.net


1 ................................................................................................. 3
2
2 ................................................................................ 4
3 ......................................................................................... 6
4 ..................................................................................... 7
5 ..................................................................................... 7
6 ....................................................................................................................... 8
7 ........................................................................................... 10
8 ...................................................................................................... 11
9 .............................................................................................................. 11
10 9 6 ........................................................................................................ 13
112011 .............................................................. 14
122011 ..................................................................... 15
13................................................................................................................................... 16
14.............................................. 18
15
....................................................................................... 19
16 .................................................................................................... 22
17 ........................................................................................................................... 23
18................................................................................................. 23
19 .................................................................................................... 24
2040 / ....................................................................................... 27
21................................................................................................................................... 28
22................................................................................................................................... 29
23.................................................................................................................... 30
24 ........................................................................................................................... 30
25 ........................................................................................................................... 31
26................................................................................................................................... 32
27 ............................................... 33
282008 ........................................................................................ 35

38

- http://bg.panlv.net

612
20%

10%

612
20%
612
10%20%
612

612
10%

01157.HK0317.HK
01766.SH
A 600031.SH000157.SZ
601766.SH

601989.SH
600835.SH000887.SZ
600118.SH
300024.SZ
300064.SZ
002430.SZ
002111.SZ
601798.SH002564.SZ300126.SZ

- http://bg.panlv.net

35 C

010-83574171

fuchuxiong@chinastock.com.cn

99 26

021-20257811

yumiao_jg@chinastock.com.cn

26

www.chinastock.com.cn

0755-83453719 zhanlu@chinastock.com.cn