Ajuste de los datos a una recta

Para realizar las regresiones se utiliz el paquete estadstico EVIEWS y los

resultados de acuerdo con los datos investigados segn su naturaleza son los
siguientes.

Anlisis de la demanda con fuentes secundarias.

Para el clculo de demanda se obtuvieron los siguientes datos:
Dependent Variable: DEMANDA
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/10/15 Time: 09:12
Sample: 2006 2012
Included observations: 7
DEMANDA=C(1)+C(2)*YR-C(3)*INFLACION
Coefficient
Std. Error
C(1)
51343.38
2754.329
C(2)
5486.619
219.0186
C(3)
-1160.504
583.9554
R-squared
Ajusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.993669
0.990503
1153.350
5320864
-57.32690
2.663146

Mean dependent var

S.D.dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statstic)

Dependent Variable: DEMANDA

Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/10/15 Time: 09:22
Sample: 2006 2012
Included observations: 7
DEMANDA=C(1)+C(2)*YR+C(3)*PIB
Coefficient
C(1)
56895.99
C(2)
5455.654
C(3)
-193.1179
R-squared
Ajusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.990469
0.985703
1415.087
8009882.
-58.75854
2.807561

t-Statistic
18.64097
25.05092
-1.987316

Std. Error
1255.716
267.6269
170.6468

Prob.
0.0000
0.0000
0.1178

78238.57
11838.92
17.23626
17.21307
313.8857
0.000040

t-Statistic
45.30959
20.38530
-1.131682

Mean dependent var

S.D.dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statstic)

Prob.
0.0000
0.0000
0.3210
78238.57
11834.92
17.64530
17.62211
207.8389
0.000091

Dependent Variable: DEMANDA

Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/10/15 Time: 09:22
Sample: 2006 2012
Included observations: 7
DEMANDA=C(1)+C(2)*YR+C(3)*PARIDAD
Coefficient
Std. Error
C(1)
47332.20
9519.593
C(2)
5093.945
455.4257
C(3)
870.2970
899.6749
R-squared
Ajusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.989803
0.984704
1463.700
8569668.
-58.99497
2.848787

t-Statistic
4.972082
11.18502
0.967346

Mean dependent var

S.D.dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statstic)

Prob.
0.0076
0.0004
0.3881
78238.57
11834.92
17.71285
17.68967
194.1319
0.000104

Proyeccin optimista y pesimista de la oferta nacional de mermelada

Para el clculo de oferta se obtuvieron los siguientes datos:
Dependent Variable: OFERTA
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/10/15 Time: 09:32
Sample: 2006 2012
Included observations: 7
OFERTA=C(1)+C(2)*YR-C(3)*PIB
Coefficient
C(1)
58487.53
C(2)
3700.590
C(3)
5.013322
R-squared
Ajusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.966789
0.950184
1814.503
13169683
-60.49888
1.692247

Dependent Variable: OFERTA

Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/10/15 Time: 09:42
Sample: 2006 2012
Included observations: 7

Std. Error
1610.149
343.1661
218.8128

t-Statistic
36.32429
10.78367
0.022911

Mean dependent var

S.D.dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statstic)

Prob.
0.0000
0.0004
0.9828
73277.43
8129.684
18.14254
18.11936
58.22174
0.001103

DEMANDA=C(1)+C(2)*YR-C(3)*INFLACION
Coefficient
Std. Error
C(1)
60196.27
4234.846
C(2)
3685.943
336.7463
C(3)
-389.8935
897.8452
R-squared
Ajusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.968280
0.952421
1773.303
12578411
-60.33811
1.802457

t-Statistic
14.21451
10.94576
0.434255

Mean dependent var

S.D.dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statstic)

Prob.
0.0001
0.0004
0.6865
73277.43
8129.684
18.09660
18.07342
61.05258
0.001006

Proyeccin optimista y pesimista de las importaciones.

Para el clculo de importacin:
Dependent Variable: IMPORTACION
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/10/15 Time: 09:52
Sample: 2006 2012
Included observations
:7
IMPORTACION=-C(1)+C(2)*YR-C(3)*PIB
Coefficient
Std. Error
C(1)
122.9358
197.3230
C(2)
230.2613
42.50484
C(3)
-50.99048
26.81541
R-squared
Ajusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.895974
0.843962
222.3665
197787.4
-45.80420
1.822571

Mean dependent var

S.D.dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statstic)

Dependent Variable: IMPORTACION

Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/10/15 Time: 10:02
Sample: 2006 2012
Included observations: 7
IMPORTACION=-C(1)+C(2)*YR-C(3)*PARIDAD
Coefficient
Std. Error
C(1)
-308.5869
1986.740
C(2)
246.7755
101.4218
C(3)
-30.52114
189.5652
R-squared

0.803215

t-Statistic
0.623018
5.475263
-1.901537

t-Statistic
-0.155323
2.433160
0.161006

Mean dependent var

Prob.
0.5670
0.0054
0.1300
924.8571
562.9291
13.94406
13.92088
17.22605
0.010821

Prob.
0.8841
0.0717
0.8799
924.8571

Ajusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.704822
305.8408
374154.5
-48.03537
1.561363

S.D.dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statstic)

562.9291
14.58153
14.55835
8.163368
0.038724