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Emerging Trends in Transportation Planning

Copyright Momentum Press, LLC, 2017.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored
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First published in 2017
by Momentum Press, LLC
222 East 46th Street, New York, NY 10017
ISBN-13: 978-1-60650-887-9 (print)
ISBN-13: 978-1-60650-888-6 (e-book)
Momentum Press Transportation Engineering Collection
Cover and interior design by S4Carlisle Publishing Services Private Ltd.,
Chennai, India
First edition: 2017
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Printed in the United States of America

To Dad, my No.1 fan long before I realized it.
To modernist transportation experts, for giving me endless material to
And to Al Gore, for inventing the internet. Im forever grateful.

Walking and bicycling are the basic forms of travel. But modern methodologies for predicting future travel patterns, traffic congestion, parking
demand, and funding priorities are based on assumptions that are incompatible with walking and bicycling.
Transportation professionals face a critical dilemma: either go with
the flow by prioritizing car traffic or protect human life even if it means
inconveniencing car traffic.
This book explores emerging trends, some of which cause vigorous
debate because of the fundamental shift in transportation philosophy. The
book will inspire transportation professionals to challenge the status quo
for the sake of the publics well-being.
Communities are eager for experts to embrace strategies that protect
human life, and experts are often framed as out-of-touch for being slow
to adapt to a communitys needs. There is hope. We transportation professionals have the tools and resources to improve public health and safety,
restore the freedom to choose travel modes, and revitalize towns and cities. Our work has a profound impact on everyday American life.
Read this book down and then take action. Be the 21st-century transportation planner known for an unfaltering drive to restore life, liberty, and
the pursuit of happiness.

active travel, bicycle urbanism, level of service, livability, placemaking,
traffic engineering, transit, transportation planning, travel forecasting, Vision Zero, walkability




Chapter 1 Streets Are for People


Chapter 2 Imagined Infrastructure


Chapter 3 Forecasting


Chapter 4 Efficiency


Chapter 5 Intersections


Chapter 6 Reimagined Infrastructure


Chapter 7 Open-Source Planning


Chapter 8 Induced Demand


Chapter 9 Mobility Options


Chapter 10 Complete Networks


Chapter 11 Traps to Avoid


Chapter 12 Goals to Pursue


Chapter 13 Tools to Use


Chapter 14 Understand Politics


Chapter 15 Embrace Codes of Ethics


Author Biography




Bryan Katz is a professor at Virginia Tech, a consultant, and a busy family
man. And hes the reason this book was published. (See how I deflected
blame?) Bryan saw a need for unconventional textbooks that cross into
manifesto territory. I hope this is only the beginning of a long and beautiful conspiracy.
Seth Godin pushes me to be a stronger advocate for walk-friendly,
bike-friendly infrastructure. He has nothing to do with our industry, but
you should read all of his books anyway.
Austin Kleon is a writer who draws. Ive never nodded and smiled so
much while reading nonfiction. His ideas about stealing art and showing
work have become part of my DNA.


Streets Are for People

Streets are for people. If you needed to summarize ancient transportation
planning and predict future transportation planning, this phrase will do
just fine. Streets are for people of all ages, of all cultures, of all physical
abilities, and of all income levels. Modes of travel have changed and will
continue to change, but people must be accommodated.

Children playing tag.

Teens throwing a football.
Florist setting up a curbside display.
Commuter walking across the street to a bus stop.
Parent pushing a stroller to the grocery store.
Artist driving car to pick up supplies.
Grandparent bicycling to the library.
Delivery truck unloading packages.

These are just a few ways people can be accommodated. So, why begin
a book about emerging trends with a proclamation demanding freedom?
Because the general public has allowed the transportation industry to encroach on personal liberty to the point that streets are for people is a
radical statement in the early 21st century.
Authority figures of an established order protect their own interests.
That is obvious to anyone who even casually observes politics. But it is
just as true in the planning and design of transportation infrastructure.
Street networks are not always planned with freedom and safety in mind.
The established order follows its own rules and structure. The status quo
must sustain itself.


It is important to begin a forward-looking book with some historical perspective. Otherwise, some of the industrys emerging trends may not appear
significant. For purposes of this book, modernism is the post automobile
era. In the past 100 years, transportation planning grew quickly as a profession as households across America added personal vehicles to their list of
possessions. Long-distance travel became attainable for people of average
means. More than a rich mans hobby, car ownership became possible for
the average working man.
Almost immediately after personal automobiles began appearing on
city streets, crashes started taking the lives of innocent users of the streets.
Pedestrian fatalities were met with immediate outrage, including public
condemnation for senseless acts of street violence. But instead of protecting victims, the automobile industry and city planners blamed people
who used streets without riding in a vehicle. Read Fighting Traffic by Peter Norton for a detailed account of the very intentional social engineering campaigns that changed the way street networks were planned and
Some of the most vocal critics of autocentric planning base their arguments on simple observation and common sense. Prestigious degrees
and decades of professional experience are not required to see what is
needed to improve transportation systems. In fact, degrees and experience
are part of the problem. Modernists raise up generations of more modernists. It takes disruptors with a fresh perspective to point out obvious

Modern transportation planning idolizes the personal automobile and holds its needs above all else, even its user. Modernism has been a social, economic, and public health disaster, but
it is coming to an end.

Futurism is not a flippant reference to technology and automation. If modernism represents the past 100 years, then futurism is the path forward.
I do not want to limit futurism to 100 years because I believe modernism will go down in history as a blip in the timeline of human existence.

Streets Are for People 3

Planners now see the tragic consequences of the car-oriented transportation infrastructure and are making change.
Jane Jacobs is required reading for future planners. Its ironic because
she so famously ridiculed professional planners for much of her life. If
you are not familiar with her work, start with The Death and Life Great of
American Cities. Future transportation planners are seeking wayssimple
or technologically complexto protect human life and give people the
freedom to travel safely by more than a single mode. As Jacobs plainly
pointed out: design is people.

Future transportation planning will prioritize the person walking.

Transportation infrastructure will be safer for walking, bicycling,
and motorized vehicles. The future is characterized by safe and
peaceful streets.

Formal, professional planning grew as a field of practice after automobiles were mass-produced. The culture of the planning industry is still
car-centric, but this is changing in subtle and dramatic fashion. The
emerging transportation planning trends described in this book are sorted
by philosophies that are being discarded (modernism), philosophies that
are being adopted (futurism), and tactics to incorporate emerging trends
in your work routine.
Lets clear up the term emerging trends. I am not suggesting that
the entire transportation planning agency is shifting from a car-oriented to
a people-oriented perspective. The emerging trends in this book are from
people like youpeople who understand that streets are for people. The
modernist status quo is alive and well. If you begin your career and are not
meeting any resistance, then you are not pushing hard enough against the
establishment. We have a lot of work to do.
The material in this book will not teach you to blend in. My hope is
that you will stand out, make a ruckus, and provoke change.

There is no multimodal balance. You either prioritize streets for

people or you dont.

Accidents, 28
Altucher, James, 66
American Association of Retired
Persons, 30
American infrastructure, 17
American Institute of Certified
Planners (AICP), 43
code of ethics, 8388
American jobs and strong
economy, 77
Arden, Elizabeth, 89
Aurbach, Laurence, 63
Autocentric marketers, 7
Autocentric planning, vocal critics
of, 2
Automobiles, 7, 9
Baby Boomers, 13
Bel Geddes, Norman, 8
Bicycle, 52
bicycling, benefits of, 3031
infrastructure, 4849
protected lanes, 58
Bicycling, benefits of, 3031
Big data, 3738
Bike sharing, 5153
class and equity, 5253
Block, Walter, 80
Blogs, 4142, 73
Bump-outs, 60
Business, improving, 8990

Bus lanes, dedicated, 5859

Bus service, 33
lanes, 7
parking, 55
sharing, 54
Career pursuits for creatives, 70
Center for Disease Control and
Prevention, 30
Chokers. See Bump-outs
City street life, complexity of, 12
Codes of ethics, 8390
ACIP certification, 8388
PE licence, 8388
planners opinions, 88
planners reputation, 8990
professional obligations, 8889
events, 71
streets, 19
strengthening, 90
Complete networks
bicycle lanes, protected, 58
bus lanes, dedicated, 5859
design speed, 60
local economy, 6162
pedestrian realm, 5758
rethinking hierarchy, 6263
vehicle lane widths, 5960
vehicles, designing, 59
vehicular delay, 6061


Complete streets, 57
Conferences, 71
Congestion, 2224, 4647
fatal flaw, 2324
future, 46
grid lock fear mongering, 2223
main street destroying, 23
management, 34
Conservatives, 7779
Context-sensitive design, 60
Convenience, 9, 53
Copenhagen, 49
Courthouse, construction of, 14
Crashes, 28
reduction, 2829
Curating, sources for, 7374
Curb extensions. See Bump-outs
Cusick, William J., 7
Dangerous by design, streets, 17
Danish, 49
Death, 8
Death and Life Great of American
Cities, The, 3
Decisions, alteration of, 8586
Declaration of Independence, 27
Defensive posture, 65
Demand, induced, 4549, 78
congestion, 4647
future planning, 4749
Democrats, 67
Department of Transportation, 45
Design, intersection, 2426
innovative intersection, 25
traffic lights, 2526
traffic model, 2425
Development plans, 61
Digital marketing research, 75
Duarte, Nancy, 70
Economy, local, 6162
Efficiency, maximum, 17
Emerging trends, 3

Facebook, 38, 75
Fatal flaw, 2324
Federal Highway Administration
(FHWA), 34, 57
Fighting Traffic, 2
Firms, consulting, 89
Fiscal responsibility, 47
promoting, 7779
Flipboard, 73
Ford, Henry, 90
40-20 Rule, The, 1516
Freedom, 67
allure of, 67
to purchase, 7
Freedom of choice, 51
Freeflow vehicle traffic, 2324
Functional classification systems,
6263, 88
Functional transportation, 3334
Futurama, 8
Futurism, 23
Generation middle child, 13
Gentrification, 52
Gen Xer, 13
Goals, to pursue, 6972
persuasive storytelling, 7071
racial leadership, 7172
streets, walkable, 6970
Godin, Seth, 68, 72
Goethe, Johann Wolfgang von, 70
Google, 42, 74
Government agencies, 81, 89
Government, local, 1213, 32
Grading system, 20
Great American Arterial, 15
Gridlock, 11, 77
fear mongering, 2223
Growth areas, designating, 34
Happiness, pursuit of, 3235
Hashtags, 39


Healthy living, 2931

Held public agencies, 81
Hesse, Hermann, 9
High-speed corridors, 7
Highway Capacity Manual, 19, 24
Highways, 8
Human activity, signs of, 4647
Human behavior, 1113
Human errors, avoiding, 5455
Human life, 2731
healthy living, 2931
zero traffic deaths, 2829
Information gathering, 7374
Information sharing, 7475
Infrastructure, 59, 2735, 81
Injury, insult to, 16
Instagram, 4041
Institute of Transportation
Engineers (ITE), 13
Trip Generation Manual, 61
Institutions, alteration of, 8586
Internet, 47, 57, 73
Internet-based platforms, 38
Internet of Things, 37
congestion, 2224
design of, 2426
innovative, 25
level of service (LOS), 1922
performance, 19
Interstates, 34
Jacobs, Jane, 3, 12, 25
Kennedy, John F., 87
Khera, Shiv, 5
Layperson, definition of, 37
Leadership, 5
radical, 7172
Learning, 7374

Level of service (LOS), 1922, 23,

24, 35, 46, 61, 78
babies and bathwater, 1920
design guides of, 21
multimodal, 2122
objectivity, illusion of, 20
speeding up rush hour, 2021
Liberals, 7980
Libertarian philosophy, 8081
Liberty, 3132
social equity, 32
LinkedIn, 41, 74
Lists, 39
Live streaming, 40
Lobbying, 5
Loving transparency, 4344
Main street
common traits of, 23
destroying, 23
Marketing campaigns, 5
Mass transit, 5354, 58, 80
convenience, 53, 41
Mental health, 30
Millard-Ball, Adam, 14
Millennials, 13
bike sharing, 5153
car sharing, 54
driverless vehicles, 5455
freedom of choice, 51
mass transit, 5354
options, 5155
Modern congestion, 46
Modernism, 2, 48
Modernist, 2, 7, 9, 1112, 16, 17,
23, 58, 8788
democrats, 77
efficiency, 15
planner, 53, 83
professionals, 60
transportation planner, 19, 21,
24, 45


Modern planning, 8
Modern professionals, 14
Montgomery, Charles, 31
Motor vehicles, 8
Multimodal level of service, 2122
National Complete Streets
Coalition, 57
National Society of Professional
Engineers (NSPE), 83, 86
New York Worlds Fair, 8
Nonaggression, meaning of, 80
Norton, Peter, 2
Obesity, 30
Objectivity, illusion of, 20
Offenders, punishing, 29
Online training, 71
Open-source planning, 3744
big data, 3738
social media, 3844
Order, automobiles, 89
Overall responsibility, to public,
Paid marketing, 5
Paul, Ron, 88
Peak-hour operation analysis, 21,
Peak-hour traffic analysis, 88
Pedestrian fatality, 2
Pedestrian realm, 5758
Pedestrians, 8
Penalosa, Enrique, 32
Personal-trip data, 61
culture of, 3
industry, 2930
open-source, 3744
Podcasting, 42
Podcasts, 74
Polarization, 77

Policies, alteration of, 8586

Political platforms, 77
Politics, understanding, 7781
fiscal responsibility, promoting,
liberals, 7980
libertarian philosophy, 8081
Pragmatist, 14
Priority, 8
Privately Owned Self-Driving
Vehicle, 55
Private property, 80
Professional Engineer (PE)
licence, 8388
Professional obligations, 8889
Professional organizations, 71
Professional planner, 29, 69, 71
Professional planning, 3
Project meetings, 71
Public health, and safety, 89
Public infrastructure, 31, 32
Public interest, 8385
Publicly Shared Self-Driving
Vehicle, 55
Public matters, more than
part 1, 8386
part 2, 8688
Public needs, 84, 87
Public sector, 52
Public works, 8
Publishing tool, 74
Race to graveyard, 1516
40-20 rule, 1516
dangerous by design, 17
insult to injury, 16
Rethinking hierarchy, 6263
Roundabouts, 33, 86
Safety, 8
Search engines, 41
Share updates, 41


Shell Oil Company, 8

Site plans, 33
SlideShare, 41, 74
Smith, Noah, 77
Snapchat, 75
Social equity, 32
Social media, 3844, 71, 8990
learn to love transparency, 4344
long life, 4143
short life, 3941
Speed, design, 60
Speeding up rush hour, 2021
Speeding vehicles, 15
Speed reduction, 15
Stereotypes, 6667
Steve Jobs, 88
defensive, 6566
persuasive, 7071
Street networks, 1, 17, 51, 58, 69,
prioritizing, 54
Streets, 7
design speed, 29, 60
for people, 13
violence, 2
walkable, 6970
Suburban infrastructure, 5354
Suburban zoning, 61
Taxpayers, 47, 78
Teaching, 7475
Technology, 38
Thought process, 7
Tools, to use, 7375
information gathering, 7374
information sharing, 7475
Traffic calming, 60
Traffic crashes, 8, 15, 55
Traffic deaths, 8
eliminating, 33
Traffic engineering, 24
Traffic forecasting, 1114, 34
art of, 11

beginning with end in mind, 13

modern, 12
trip generation, 13
unpredictable humans, 1113
Traffic model, 2425
Traffic safety, 28, 62
Traffic signals, 7, 2526, 53
Traffic studies, 61
Transit agencies, 80
Transit planning, 33
Transit ridership, 79
Transit subsidies, 78
engineers, 57
equity, 32
fundamental modes of, 62
industry, 1
networks, 29, 81
planners, 12, 13, 4647, 52, 54,
5758, 61, 62, 8486
planning, 24, 28, 51
professionals, 45, 46
Transportation department, 8, 62,
Transportation infrastructure, 3,
5, 66
convenience, 9
freedom, 67
lobbyists, 7
order, 89
safety, 8
Transportation planning
emerging, 3
emerging trends in, 37
future, 23
modern, 2, 7
Transportation system, 17
in Sweden, 28
Traps, to avoid, 6568
defensive storytelling, 6566
political stereotypes, 6667
waiting for permission, 68
Travel lanes, 59
Travel, modes of, 1, 7
Travel time, 6061


Trip generation, 1314

manual, 13
Trip-generation methodology, 88
Twitter, 38, 39, 75
Urbanism, 47
Users, accommodation of, 29
Vaynerchuk, Gary, 71
Vehicle mile travelled (VMT), 62,
Vehicles, 53, 5455
design, 59
human error, avoiding, 5455
lane width, 5960
parking, 55
Vehicle traffic pumping, 9
Vehicular delay, 6061

Victims, blaming, 29
Video sharing, 75
Vimeo, 75
Vision Zero, 2829, 81
Votes, 77
Walker, Jarrett, 80
Walking, 61, 69
benefits of, 3031
prohibition, 16
Webinars, 74, 41
YouTube, 4243, 7374, 75
Zero traffic deaths, 2829
Zip code planning, 12


Bryan Katz, Editor
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Obstacles and Solutions by Terry L. Koglin
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by Brian E. Chandler
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