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PERENCANAAN &

PENGENDALIAN PRODUKSI
TIN 4113

Short Quiz
Berikan jawaban singkat:
Review materi 1:
Jelaskan ruang lingkup PPIC!
Mengapa PPIC diperlukan?
Apa yang membedakan posisi PPIC dalam struktur
organisasi perusahaan?

Persiapan materi 2:
Apa kegunaan dari peramalan?
Sebutkan 5 metode peramalan yang anda ketahui:
Jelaskan karakteristik masing-masing metode tersebut.
Sebutkan situasi yang tepat untuk menggunakan
masing-masing metode tersebut yang membedakan
metode satu dengan yang lain.

Pertemuan 2
Outline:

Karakteristik Peramalan
Cakupan Peramalan
Klasifikasi Peramalan
Metode Forecast: Time Series
Simple Time Series Models:
Moving Average (Simple & Weighted)
Exponential Smoothing (Single)

Referensi:
Smith, Spencer B., Computer Based Production and Inventory
Control, Prentice-Hall, 1989.
Tersine, Richard J., Principles of Inventory and Materials
Management, Prentice-Hall, 1994.
Vollmann, Berry, Whyback., Manufacturing Planning and Control
System 4th ed, Mc Graw-Hill, 1997.
Pujawan, Demand Forecasting Lecture Note, IE-ITS, 2011.

Memprediksi masa depan...


Hal yang sangat sulit!!!!!
Every woman is frightened of a mouse.
MGM head Louts B. Mayer in 1926, to young cartoonist
named Walt Disney
640k ought to be enough for anybody.
Bill Gates, Microsoft founder, 1981
The Internet will collapse within a year.
Bob Metcalf, founder of 3Com Corporation, in December 1995
Sumber: Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry (Cook, 2006)

Cakupan Peramalan
Berdasarkan Kategori Tingkat Keputusan
Tingkat Kebijakan
Tingkat Produk
Tingkat Proses
Tingkat Desain Pabrik
Tingkat Operasional

Cakupan Peramalan
Berdasarkan Unit Bisnis
Perencanaan Keuangan
Perencanaan Pemasaran
Perencanaan Produksi
Perencanaan Penjadwalan

Characteristic of Forecasts
Forecast involves error >>> they are usually
wrong
Family forecast are more accurate than item
forecast. Aggregate forecasts are more
accurate.
Short-range forecasts are more accurate than
long-range forecasts
A good forecast is more than a single number.

Demand Management
Where possible, calculate demand rather than forecast.
If not possible...
Independent Demand
(finished goods and spare parts)

Dependent Demand

(components)

B(4)

D(2)

C(2)

E(1)

D(3)

F(2)

Demand
Estimates

Sales
Forecast

Production
Resource
Forecast

Examples of Production Resource Forecasts


Forecast
Horizon

Long-Range

MediumRange

Short-Range

Time Span

Item Being Forecast

Units of
Measure

Product lines
Factory capacities
Planning for new products
Capital expenditures
Facility location or expansion
R&D

Dollars, tons,
etc.

Months

Product groups
Department capacities
Sales planning
Production planning and
budgeting

Dollars, tons,
etc.

Weeks

Specific product quantities


Machine capacities
Planning
Purchasing
Scheduling
Workforce levels
Production levels
Job assignments

Physical units
of products

Years

Klasifikasi Peramalan
Kualitatif
Sales force composite
Survey Pasar
Keputusan Manajemen (Jury of executive opinion)
The Delphi Method

Kuantitatif
Time series

Time Series
Selalu menggunakan data historis (Nave
methods)
Komponen time series:
Trend
Seasonality
Cycles
Randomness

Simple Time Series Models

Moving Average (Simple & Weighted)


Exponential Smoothing (Single)
Double Exponential Smoothing (Holts)
Winters Method for Seasonal Problems

Simple Moving Average

Forecast Ft is average of n previous observations or actuals Dt :

Ft 1
Ft 1

1
( Dt Dt 1 Dt 1n )
n
1 t

Di

n i t 1n

Note that the n past observations are equally weighted.


Issues with moving average forecasts:

All n past observations treated equally;


Observations older than n are not included at all;
Requires that n past observations be retained;
Problem when 1000's of items are being forecast.

Example of Simple Moving Average


Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Demand 3-Week 6-Week


650
678
720
785
682.67
859
727.67
920
788.00
850
854.67
768.67
758
876.33
802.00
892
842.67
815.33
920
833.33
844.00
789
856.67
866.50
844
867.00
854.83

Weighted Moving Average


Forecast is based on n past demand data, each
given a certain weight. The total weight must equal
to 1.

Ft 1 ( wt Dt wt 1Dt 1 wt 1n Dt 1n )

Re-do the above example, using 3 past data, each given


a weight of 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2 (larger for more recent data)

Exponential Smoothing
New Forecast = (current observation of demand) +
(1-) (last forecast)
Or
Ft = (Dt) + (1-)Ft-1
And

Ft-1 = (Dt-1) + (1-)Ft-2, dst


Sehingga pada model ini, semua data historis terwakili
pada forecast terakhir dengan bobot yang semakin
kecil (untuk data yang semakin lama)

Exponential Smoothing
Include all past observations
Weight recent observations much more heavily than
very old observations:

0 1

weight

(1 )

Decreasing weight given


to older observations

(1 ) 2
(1 )
today

Exponential Smoothing
Notes:
Only 2 values (Dt and Ft-1 ) are required, compared with n for moving
average
Parameter determined empirically (whatever works best)
Rule of thumb: < 0.5
= 0.1 to = 0.3

Forecast for k periods into future is:

Ft k Ft

Exponential Smoothing
Example:
Exponential smoothing and a constant model are
being used for forecasting. The smoothed average
at the end of period zero was 80. The actual
demand in period 1 was 104. The smoothing
constant is 0,1. What is the forecast for period 2
made at the end of period 1?

Persamaan MA dan ES
Sama-sama mengasumsikan demand bersifat
stationary
Keduanya tergantung pada 1 nilai parameter,
N pada MA dan pada ES.
Kalau ada trend, kedua-duanya terlambat
dalam merespon
Keduanya akan menghasilkan distribusi error
yang sama apabila = 2 / (N+1)

Perbedaan MA dan ES
MA mengakomodasikan lebih banyak data
ES hanya menyimpan dua data: forecast
terakhir dan actual demand terakhir, sedang
MA menyimpan N data demand terakhir

Pertemuan 3 - Persiapan
Tugas Baca:
Metode Peramalan:
Simple Time Series Model:
Double Exponential Smoothing (Holts)
Winters Method for Seasonal Problems

Error Forecast

MAD
MSE
MAPE
MFE atau Bias