Stat 104 Section 4 - Problem Solutions

© All Rights Reserved

9 views

Stat 104 Section 4 - Problem Solutions

© All Rights Reserved

- testcoordinate geometrymarksscheme
- Statistics & Probability
- F.Y.B.Sc-CS Stas-1 & 2 Syllabus
- Direct Material Variance Example
- a-ap247e
- EfficientFrontier Excel
- PEDAGOGICAL CONTENT KNOWLEDGE (PCK) AND TEACHER EFFECTIVENESS IN GEOGRAPHY TEACHING IN RESPECT OF EXPERIENCE AND QUALIFICATION; A COMPARATIVE STUDY.
- Factor Analysis
- Polet, Katzenberg
- PROBABILITY
- Test 2
- Pastor Stambaugh
- Mutations of Bacteria From Virus Sensitivity to Virus Resistance
- 10 Portfolio Returns
- Desision Making Tools
- ch04
- Interpreting PRE Measures as Percentage of Variation Explained - Kviz 1981
- Tractors in Spain- A Dynamiv=c Reanalysis
- 1564137877312_0_MA ECONOMICS DSE STRATEGY.pdf
- Lec08

You are on page 1of 10

Problem Solutions

1) In a 7 game playoff series like the World Series, the first team to win

4 games wins the series.

a) Assuming there is equal probability that each team wins each game,

what is the probability that the series ends in 4, 5, 6, or 7 games?

Let X = number of games the World Series will go this year.

Let there be two teams in the series: the Phillies (P) and the

Red Sox (R). Then, for the series to end in four games with the

Phillies as champions, the only way this can happen is if the

Phillies win the first four games, so the sequence of game-bygame winners would be: P P P P. In each of those four games,

the Phillies have 0.5 chance of winning each game, so the

probability that the Phillies win in 4 games is (0.5)4. The same

argument could be made for the Red Sox winning in 4 games

(and thus we just multiply the (0.5)4 times two):

.

For the series to end in five games with the Phillies as

champions, there are 4 ways (game-by-game sequences) this

can happen: 1) R P P P P, 2) P R P P P, 3) P P R P P, 4) P P P R

P [Note, the Phillies have to win the 5th game]. This is

equivalent to choosing which 3 of the first 4 games the Phillies

must win, thus there are

ways to do this. Also in each of

those five games, the Phillies have 0.5 chance of winning or

losing each game, so the probability that the Phillies win in 5

games is 4*(0.5)4. The same argument could be made for the

Red Sox winning in 5 games (and thus we just multiply the

4*(0.5)4 times two):

.

Similar arguments can be made to calculate the remaining two

possibilities as such:

or

be too challenging for a midterm question (though you would

be expected to do them in a HW problem since you would have

more time to think).

b) Let X be the random variable for the number of games the World

Series will go this year. What is the mean and variance of X?

Since X is a discrete random variable, we can use the following

formulas:

Mean:

Variance:

Since the World Series went to 7 games (in 1923), the number of

games played has been:

Frequenc

y

4 games

5 games

6 games

7 games

17

18

18

33

Yes, we see that there are proportionally more 4-game and 7game series than would be expected if the winner of each

game was based on a coin flip. If you know something about

baseball, this can be explained by the facts:

i) Some years there is a dominant team. If one team has

probability of winning of p = 0.75, then the series is more

likely to end in just 4 games (not to mention momentum).

ii) There is home-field advantage. If team A is more likely to

win at home (say with probability 0.75) and less likely to win

away (with probability 0.25), and since about half of the

games are home and away, then would lead to an increased

likelihood of the series going the full 7 games.

Stat 104 problem since it requires you to know something

about baseball.

2) A jewel thief and his partner planned to steal 2 identical diamonds from a

jewelry store. They had 2 similar, but fake diamonds prepared. The plan was

for the thiefs accomplice to faint and, while the stores staff were distracted,

for the thief to grab the two real diamonds from the viewing pad and replace

them with the two fake diamonds. On the day of the robbery all was going

according to plan up to the point when the thiefs accomplice fainted and the

staff rushed to her assistance. The thief grabbed the two real diamonds from

the viewing pad and put them in his pocket, but then to his horror realized

that the two fake diamonds were already in that same pocket. The thief had

to quickly grab two stones at random from the four (two real and two fake) in

his pocket and leave them on the viewing pad after which he left the store

with his accomplice.

a) Give the sample space S that corresponds to the two stones in the

thiefs pocket as he leaves the

store [(D1,F1), etc.] and assign probabilities to the elements of that

sample space.

S = {(D1,D2), (D1, F1), (D1,F2), (D2, F1), (D2, F2), (F1, F2)}

b) Let X be the number of real diamonds the thief had in his pocket as he

left the store. Give the

probability distribution of X.

x

P(X=x)

0

1//6

1

2/3

2

1/6

c) What is the probability that at least one of the two stones in the thiefs

pocket is real?

(show your work).

currently enrolled in Stat 104, 115 of the 275 students are women. Use this

information for the following problem.

a) What is the expected number of women in a simple random sample of 275

students from Harvard College? What is the standard deviation?

Binomial Distribution:

E(X) = np = .52 * 275 = 143

students from Harvard College?

where

sample of 275 students from Harvard College [use software]?

above, can be done using an online calculator like this one (or

just do a google search for binomial distribution calculator):

http://dostat.stat.sc.edu/prototype/calculators/index.php3?

dist=Binomial

4) In January & February in Cambridge, MA, each day has a 30% chance of

being snowy/rainy (consider snowy/rainy to be any type of precipitation

throughout this problem). Also, if it precips one day, it has no effect on

whether it will precip any other day. Use this information to answer the

following questions:

a) Last week it rained 1 out of the 7 days. What is the probability of 1 or

fewer rainy days over the course of one week (7 days) in February in

Cambridge?

n=7

p=.30

b) Let X be the random variable for the count of the number of days with

precipitation in January in Cambridge (treat this as a random sample of 31

days). What are the mean and standard deviation of X?

E(X)=np = 7*.30 = 2.1

c) There were 14 days with precipitation in the month of January this year.

Calculate the probability of there being exactly 14 rainy days in the 31 days

in January in Cambridge (a random sample of 31 days...go ahead and use

software).

in the month of January in Cambridge (a random sample of 31 days...go

ahead and use software).

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBOS/2011/1/1/CustomHistory.

html?

dayend=31&monthend=1&yearend=2011&req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_

statename=NA

5) You and your roommate are discussing how many classes you plan

on taking next semester (either 3, 4 or 5). Let X be the number of

classes you will decide to take and Y be the number of classes your

roommate will decide to take. The joint probability distribution for the

random variables X and Y is shown below:

# Classes Taken

You

Your

Roommate

3

4

5

3

0.04

0.05

0.01

0.10

4

0.05

0.55

0.10

0.70

5

0.01

0.10

0.09

0.20

0.10

0.70

0.20

1.00

We see that each entry (each entry is a probability of the

intersection of events for X and Y) is between 0 and 1

inclusive, and that they sum to one:

0.04 + 0.05 + 0.01 + 0.05 + 0.55 + 0.10 + 0.01 + 0.10 + 0.09 =

1

b) Find the marginal distribution of X. What are the mean and standard

deviation of X?

Essentially, this just means what is the distribution of X if we

ignore Y. Thus, we can just sum each column and find that:

P(X = 3) = 0.04 + 0.05 + 0.01 = 0.10

P(X = 4) = 0.05 + 0.55 + 0.10 = 0.70

P(X = 5) = 0.01 + 0.10 + 0.09 = 0.20

Mean:

Variance:

c) Find the marginal distribution of Y. What are the mean and standard

deviation of Y?

Note, we just need to find the row sums for the marginal

distribution of Y, and they are exactly equal to that for X. So Y

has the same marginal distribution as X, and has the same

mean and standard deviation.

d) Are the number of classes you and your roommate take

independent? How do you know?

us no info on if they are related. In fact, they are not

independent. To determine independence, we would have to

check each cell entry such that the equality:

holds. In this case, we know:

, therefore they

are dependent.

between # classes you and your roommate take?

By looking at the table, we see that when you take more

classes, your roommate tends to take more classes with you,

thus covariance and correlation should be positive. Here is the

calculation:

roommate takes, given you take 5 classes?

This is saying that knowing that you are in the column

referring to X = 5, what is the probability for each of Y = 3, 4,

or 5. So we need to take the cell entries in that column and

divide by the column total to get:

roommate takes, given you take 5 classes?

Mean:

Variance:

independent? Justify your answer numerically.

distribution of Y on X calculated in part (f) is not equal to the

marginal distribution of Y. [P(Y=3|X=5) = 0.05 0.10 =

P(Y=3)]

Let V be the random variable for the difference in number of

classes that you take compared to your roommate (i.e. V = X

Y).

i) What is the distribution of V? What are the mean and variance of V?

Vs sample space is SV = {-2, -1, 0, 1, 2}. The related

probabilities are:

Mean:

Variance:

Simlarly, since V is a linear combination of X and Y:

- testcoordinate geometrymarksschemeUploaded byShahul Hameed
- Statistics & ProbabilityUploaded byAlfredo Barrientos Padilla
- F.Y.B.Sc-CS Stas-1 & 2 SyllabusUploaded byRahul Bhanushali
- Direct Material Variance ExampleUploaded byImperoCo LLC
- a-ap247eUploaded byCésar López
- EfficientFrontier ExcelUploaded byNikhil Gupta
- PEDAGOGICAL CONTENT KNOWLEDGE (PCK) AND TEACHER EFFECTIVENESS IN GEOGRAPHY TEACHING IN RESPECT OF EXPERIENCE AND QUALIFICATION; A COMPARATIVE STUDY.Uploaded byIJAR Journal
- Factor AnalysisUploaded bywaldemarclaus
- Polet, KatzenbergUploaded bymartu_k
- PROBABILITYUploaded bygiloralabora
- Test 2Uploaded byAmir Husaini
- Pastor StambaughUploaded bymirando93
- Mutations of Bacteria From Virus Sensitivity to Virus ResistanceUploaded byBruno Marçal Repolês
- 10 Portfolio ReturnsUploaded byManali Padale
- Desision Making ToolsUploaded byJen Lindugan
- ch04Uploaded bySarjeel Ahsan Niloy
- Interpreting PRE Measures as Percentage of Variation Explained - Kviz 1981Uploaded byMadalena Goncalves
- Tractors in Spain- A Dynamiv=c ReanalysisUploaded byBrainy12345
- 1564137877312_0_MA ECONOMICS DSE STRATEGY.pdfUploaded byparas hasija
- Lec08Uploaded bydani_sag
- 0304 QS026_2Uploaded byIain Choong WK
- 101 ExaminationSSUploaded byaryan4ever05
- b45.docUploaded byAsia Butt
- Chapter 11Uploaded byAhsan Sayeed Nabeel Depro
- PSYCH_2013032815383079.pdfUploaded byAnonymous WqTKsKP3S
- CIA SPSSUploaded byMilind Manoj
- App13 Col LoadsUploaded byJade Atkinson Phellaine
- v102n08p481Uploaded byvanpato
- Tutorial 5Uploaded byToMem
- lecture4.pdfUploaded bySerkan Sezin

- Non Minimum Phase ZeroUploaded byvargil
- Generative Shape DesignUploaded bySérgio Martins
- test1_09FUploaded byEmile Daou
- Pre-Cal to AP CalcUploaded byArnold Kadiu
- color tile fraction lessonUploaded byapi-365493417
- January 2017 (IAL) QP - C34 EdexcelUploaded byMok Jeconiah
- 6559733-Note-Chapter1-SF017Uploaded byAnonymous Kx8TAybnXQ
- Managing Diversification SSRN-id1358533Uploaded bymshuffma971518
- Inequality PDF by Governmentadda.comUploaded byJOHN
- Def. of Linier Equation With 1 VariablesUploaded byYurizkaMeliaSari
- MUFY Student GuideUploaded bySunway University
- Civil RightsUploaded byStijn Winkeler
- Vector CalculusUploaded byncharala
- Chapter No 5Uploaded byPiyush Agnihotri
- +++++Aristotle's - Metaphysics - Introduction & Notes - RossUploaded byAlfonso Flórez
- cogreeeUploaded byjonyjonyjony
- ORUploaded byMoumita Bhattacharjee
- LimiteUploaded bylogusmao
- Asymptotic Analysis NotesUploaded bymihuang
- Pseudocode Guide For Teachers (IGCSE Computer ScienceUploaded byHelloThere
- Intro to MatlabUploaded byHesham Fadl-Allah Mohamad
- 1-s2.0-S1365160913000142-mainUploaded byAbdelali Sol
- Chapter 06 newUploaded byGokulapunnagai
- Further Maths Textbook 2016Uploaded bypeter smith
- Kinematics With GraphsUploaded byOksana Mandryk
- Vehicle Stability - Dean Karnopp.pdfUploaded byAnonymous ePcnZoBE
- Transformation of Stresses and StrainsUploaded byHüseyin Hızlı
- MathematicsUploaded byengrmairy
- Elements of Information Theory.2nd Ex 2.4Uploaded byRicardo Fonseca
- Hess SmithUploaded byhakimkaskus