EVALUATING

OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS

- THREE KEY QUESTIONS

NIGEL A.L. BROOKS

THE BUSINESS LEADERSHIP DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

Article reprint
 EVALUATING OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS
- THREE KEY QUESTIONS

The enterpriship model describes the four activities that guide

entrepreneurship, leadership, and management: establishing the mindset,
enabling action, building relationships, and establishing order. Inherent
within this model are three questions that must be considered when
evaluating opportunities or responding to threats that affect either the
current or future state. These questions address possibilities, assumptions,
and probabilities.

Enterpriship is the process of building enterprises by transforming

innovative ideas into value, influencing others, and managing resources.
Every successful idea starts as a vision in an individual's mind, and is
transformed in value through hard work (and maybe luck too).

Mindsets can become fixed and difficult to change. Even the most
innovative and action-oriented people can become comfortable in their
current state, and may not want or perceive a need to change. Without an
incentive, they justify prior behaviors and decisions, even if they suffer
some pain or inconvenience as a consequence.

However, the only certainty is uncertainty, and business conditions can

change rapidly. When presented with an opportunity or threat,
entrepreneurs, leaders, and managers must consider options and then
challenge them in the context of three questions from which decisions can
be made:

● What are the possibilities?

● What are the assumptions?

● What are the probabilities?

These questions are addressed during the planning and policy

development process, where alternative scenarios are considered, and
decisions to commit are made based upon thorough analysis. In this
process, facts and information may be widely available from which
conclusions are drawn, and recommended courses of action are
formulated. However, sometimes it is necessary to make a quick decision
in a short period of time with only limited facts and information.

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Whether time is available or is of the essence, and whether facts and
information are widely available or not, answers to questions regarding
possibilities, assumptions, and probabilities establish the mindset and
intended actions going forward to address opportunities and threats.

What are the possibilities?

Possibilities define what can be achieved within the capabilities of

resources that are available or can be acquired. Capability defines the
capacity and ability of people, processes and functions, and products
and/services to realize potential quality and value within certain time and
cost parameters. Possibilities lead to options from which decisions can be
made.

What are the assumptions?

Assumptions define assertions and propositions about the past, present,

future. An assertion is a declaration about an event or condition; a
proposition is a statement for consideration and acceptance.

Assumptions support options and are fundamental to decisions. Decisions

to invest in research and development, build infrastructure, enter markets,
offer products and/or services, and build relationships with constituencies
are all based upon assumptions, whether right or wrong.

It is not so much the decision itself, but the assumptions behind it that
matter. Assumptions are often justified, not challenged, leading to wrong
decisions regarding ideas, time, or place. It is hard to earn back destroyed
value if a wrong assumption is made. Typical quotes resulting from wrong
assumptions include:

"Location, location, location!!!"

"An idea that was ahead of its time."

"That idea's moment has passed."

"The value proposition offered too many features and not enough
benefits."

"Actual revenue was about half of expectation, and expenses were about
double."

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What are the probabilities?

There is an adage that suggests that "one should never assume." However,
business cannot be conducted without assumptions. Options and
assumptions lead to potential outcomes. It important to know what to do
when certain outcomes arise, whether expected or not.

Probability is the likelihood of outcome - that an event can occur or a

condition can arise. Therefore, every option and assumption should be
challenged in terms of potential outcomes, even if on a simple "high,
medium, and low" scale. Outcomes can then be framed in terms of "what
if" scenarios that describe the best and worst cases, and those somewhere
in between, with alternative courses of action. Hence decisions can be
made based upon intended actions, with known contingencies in place,
just in case an actual outcome differs from expected.

***

The cost of no decision may be higher than the wrong one. Therefore,
opportunities and threats should be evaluated in terms of possibilities,
assumptions, and probabilities, and then decisions to proceed should be
made with anticipation, deliberation, and contingency.

Considering possibilities, assumptions, and probabilities is an enterpriship

(entrepreneurship, leadership, and management) competency.

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For more information...

For information about audiobooks, books, earticles, ebooks, and eseminars

offered by The Business Leadership Development Corporation visit
www.etailia.com

For more information about the discipline of enterpriship visit

www.enterpriship.com

For more information about understanding personal styles visit

www.understandingpersonalstyles.com/demo

To assess your individual competencies in thirty minutes or less, claim

your opportunity for instant access when you go to
www.individualcompetencies.com

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About Nigel A.L Brooks...

Nigel A.L Brooks is a management consultant to entrepreneurs, business

enterprise owners, executives, and managers, and the enterprises they
serve. He specializes in developing the entrepreneurial, leadership, and
managerial competencies that build sustainable advantage from vision to
value. He is an author and a frequent speaker.

He obtained his professional experience as a partner at Andersen

Consulting (now Accenture, Ltd.), as a vice president at Booz Allen
Hamilton, Inc. (now Booz and Company), as a senior vice president at the
American Express Company, as president of Javazona Cafes, Inc., and as
president of The Business Leadership Development Corporation. He has
been a contributing editor for the Bank Administration Institute magazine,
and has served on boards of entrepreneurial networks. He was educated at
the University of Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom.

His clients are in the financial services, food services, high-tech,

manufacturing and distribution, pharmaceuticals, oil and gas, professional
services, retail and wholesale, transportation, and government industries.

He has experience in North and Latin America, Europe and Asia-Pacific.

www.nigelalbrooks.com

About The Business Leadership Development Corporation (BLD)...

The Business Leadership Development Corporation is a professional

services firm that works with entrepreneurs, lifestyle business enterprise
owners, executives, and managers, and the enterprises they serve.

BLD develops entrepreneurial, leadership, and managerial competencies

that achieve performance excellence by building sustainable advantage
from vision to value through:

 Strategic Management Consulting

 Executive Coaching and Mentoring
 Professional Training via The Center For Business Leadership
Development (CBLD)
 Motivational Speaking

www.bldsolutions.com

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 THE BUSINESS LEADERSHIP DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION
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PHOENIX, ARIZONA 85032 USA
www.bldsolutions.com
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