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NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Tuesday, September 20, 2016 at 6:00AM ET
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout
the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM. Results released prior to September 20 were among
registered voters. Starting on the week of September 12 through September 18, 2016, results are among likely voters and are
denoted with an asterisk below.
Results for the week of September 12, 2016 through September 18, 2016 are among a national sample of 13,230 likely voters (+/1.2%), 3,816 likely Republican voters (+/-2.1%) and 4,568 likely Democratic voters (+/-1.9%). Complete error estimates can be found
in the methodology section below.

TOPLINE RESULTS
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

9/12—9/18*
9/5—9/11
8/29—9/4
8/22—8/28
8/15—8/21
8/8—8/14
8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/18--7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10

Foreign
Policy

The
environment

Terrorism

Immigration

Health
care

Jobs and the
Economy

Education

Other

No
answer

5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
5
5
4
5
5
4
5
5

9
9
9
9
8
7
8
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
8
8
8

15
14
14
16
17
18
20
23
26
23
22
21
21
23
12
12
13
13
12
12
14
14
16
17
19
18
12
13
13
14
16
16
15
17
19
21
23

8
10
7
7
8
7
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
7
7
7
7
6
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
8
8

17
16
17
16
16
15
14
13
13
12
13
13
15
14
17
17
15
16
16
15
16
15
15
14
15
13
15
16
16
16
15
14
16
13
15
13
13

32
32
32
33
32
33
32
30
28
29
29
31
28
29
37
35
36
36
35
36
33
32
32
31
32
32
36
35
35
34
33
34
32
32
33
29
28

9
10
10
10
9
10
9
8
8
8
9
8
9
9
10
11
10
12
11
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
11
10
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
8

5
5
6
5
6
5
6
6
7
8
7
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
5
6
5
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

12/28-1/3

6

8

23

8

14

27

9

5

1

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
9/12—9/18*
9/5—9/11
8/29—9/4
8/22—8/28
8/15—8/21
8/8—8/14
8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/18—7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2—5/8
4/25—5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Strongly approve
32
29
29
30
31
30
32
32
28
27
27
28
30
30
29
27
27
27
28
28
27
26
28
27
28
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
27
25
26
26
23
23

Somewhat approve
20
22
22
21
21
22
21
20
21
22
22
22
22
21
22
24
23
23
23
23
24
24
24
23
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
24
23
22
24
22
22
25

Somewhat disapprove
11
11
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
12
12
11
12
12
12
12
12
13
13
12
13
13
12
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
14
12
12
12

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
9/12—9/18*
9/5—9/11
8/29—9/4
8/22—8/28
8/15—8/21
8/8—8/14
8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/18---7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10

Republican
29
30
30
29
29
28
30
30
31
29
27

Democrat
36
34
34
34
35
34
36
36
32
33
33

Independent
34
34
35
36
34
37
32
33
36
36
38

No answer
1
2
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
2

Strongly disapprove
36
38
36
36
36
37
35
36
39
38
38
38
35
37
36
37
37
36
35
36
36
37
37
37
35
35
35
36
37
37
39
38
38
40
36
40
42
40

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16—5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 - 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

28
28
28
28
29
28
29
28
32
28
28
29
30
29
30
30
31
32
31
31
30
30
31
28
31
33
30

34
35
34
35
35
33
34
35
35
36
35
34
34
35
33
36
35
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
32
34

37
36
36
36
36
37
35
35
31
35
36
35
35
35
36
32
33
31
33
33
33
33
33
36
33
34
34

1
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2

As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DON’T KNOW FOR
PARTY]
9/12—9/18*
9/5—9/11
8/29—9/4
8/22—8/28
8/15—8/21
8/8—8/14
8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/18—7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4 – 4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27

Republican
Party
35
34
31
31
29
31
29
33
32
37
32
33
32
32
33
33
32
31
33
32
32
35
33
33
31
31

Democratic
Party
29
26
26
28
26
27
29
27
26
26
26
26
29
28
28
26
28
29
28
32
27
27
30
28
29
28

Neither
33
39
41
40
43
39
40
38
39
34
39
37
36
36
36
37
37
37
36
35
38
35
34
35
38
37

No answer
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
3
4
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
1
3
3
3
4
2
4

3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

31
31
32
34
38
34
35
34
33
36
36
37

28
27
29
28
28
28
30
26
27
26
26
24

39
41
36
36
33
35
33
37
39
37
36
37

2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
1
1

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?

9/12—9/18*
9/5—9/11
8/29—9/4
8/22—8/28
8/15—8/21
8/8—8/14
8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/18—7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16– 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8

Hillary
Clinton, the
Democrat
50
48
48
48
50
50
51
50
46
46
47
48
49
48
49
48
47
47
48
49

Donald Trump,
the Republican
45
44
42
42
42
41
41
42
45
45
44
43
41
42
42
44
45
43
45
44

No
answer
6
8
10
10
8
8
8
8
9
9
10
9
10
10
9
9
8
9
7
7

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates for whom would you vote?

9/12—9/18*
9/5—9/11
8/29—9/4
8/22—8/28
8/15—8/21
8/8—8/14
8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/18—7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10

Donald
Trump, the
Republican
40
40
37
37
38
37
38
38
41
40
38

Hillary
Clinton, the
Democrat
45
42
41
41
43
43
44
43
39
39
40

Gary
Johnson,
the
Libertarian
10
11
12
11
11
11
10
9
10
10
11

Jill Stein,
the
Green
Party
4
4
4
5
5
4
4
4
5
5
6

No
answer
2
3
6
6
4
5
4
5
6
7
6

6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
6/2—6/5

38
36
38
38
40

41
42
42
42
39

9
9
9
9
9

5
5
5
5
4

6
7
7
6
8

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Hillary Clinton?

9/12—9/18*
9/5—9/11
8/8—8/14
8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/4—7/10
5/9 – 5/15

Strongly
favorable
19
15
15
20
20
15
17

Somewhat
favorable
24
24
25
23
21
23
23

Somewhat
unfavorable
12
13
13
12
13
14
14

Strongly
unfavorable
45
46
46
44
44
46
45

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
2
1

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Donald Trump?

9/12—9/18*
9/5—9/11
8/8—8/14
8/1—8/7
7/18—7/24
7/4—7/10
6/6—6/12
5/9—5/15

Strongly
favorable
15
16
12
15
17
14
15
14

Somewhat
favorable
23
22
22
21
23
22
22
23

Somewhat
unfavorable
11
11
13
12
13
13
12
13

Strongly
unfavorable
50
49
51
52
46
49
49
49

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1

What are the chances that you will vote in the general election for President in November?

9/12—9/18

Absolutely
certain I
will vote
81

Large chance
I will vote
10

50-50
chance I will
vote
5

Small chance I
will vote
2

I will not
vote
2

No
answer
1

Are you or is anyone in your household currently serving in the military or a military veteran?

9/12—9/18*
8/29—9/4
8/8—8/14

Yes, I am
9
8
8

Yes, I am and someone else
in my household is as well
1
2
1

Yes, someone else
in my household is
10
11
10

No
78
78
80

No answer
1
1
1

Do you consider yourself to be:

9/12—9/18*

Heterosexual
or straight
87

Homosexual
3

Do you consider yourself to be transgender?

9/12—9/18*

Yes
1

No
98

No answer
1

Bisexual
2

Prefer not to
answer
7

No answer
1

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of September 12, 2016 through September 18, 2016 was conducted
online among a national sample of 13,230 adults aged 18 and over who are likely to vote. Respondents for this survey were selected from
the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age, race,
sex, education, region, and voter registration status using the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Current Population Survey to reflect
the demographic composition of the United States. An additional smoothing parameter for ideology based on previous Election Tracking interviews
is included. The smoothing parameter was derived from aggregated data on ideology by region collected from previous weeks (May 1-June 26) of
the Weekly Election Tracking poll.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error
can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and
measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate.
The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.2 percentage point for likely voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence
intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in
much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group
Total LVs

Unweighted N
13,230

Plus or minus
1.2

Republican LVs
Democrat LVs
Independent LVs

3,816
4,568
4,734

2.1
1.9
1.9

Male LVs
Female LVs

6,595
6,635

1.5
1.6

18-24 LVs
25-34 LVs
35-44 LVs
45-54 LVs
55-64 LVs
65+ LVs

726
1,283
1,784
2,870
3,508
3,059

4.6
3.7
3.1
2.5
2.2
2.3

White LVs
Black LVs
Hispanic LVs
Other LVs

10,570
1,048
634
978

1.3
4.3
5.1
4.0