CAPITOL WEEKLY/PROBOLSKY RESEARCH
CALIFORNIA POLL
JUNE 2010 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTION
REPORT ON RESULTS
June 2, 2010
Prepared for Anthony York

PUBLIC POLL WITH DISTRIBUTION CONTROLLED BY CAPITOL WEEKLY

 
 

 
 

TABLE OF CONTENTS
I.

Interview Schedule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1

II.

Executive Summary and Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3

III.

Cross Tabulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6

-Gender
-Party
-Age
-Gender/Age

-Party/Gender
-Party/Age
-Vote Propensity

-Voter Type
-Registration Date
-Ethnicity
-Geography

 
 

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

0

 
 

CAPITOL WEEKLY/PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CA POLL

JUNE, 2010 PRIMARY ELECTION SURVEY INTERVIEW SCHEDULE
Field Dates: May 30 – June 1, 2010
N = 750
Margin of Error = +/- 3.7%
Universe: Likely June 2010 Republican Primary Election voters: 10NPC - Voted in at least 3 of 11-06, 2-08, 6-08, 11-08, 509 OR (Reg. after 6-08 & voted both 11-08 & 5-09) OR (Reg. after 11-08 & voted 5-09) OR Reg. after 5-09. (Represents
47.2%)
Language: English
Due to rounding, some figures may be higher or lower by less than one-half of one percent

  Hello, may I speak with __________?

[IF NOT AVAILABLE—SCHEDULE CALLBACK]

This is __________ with the Western States Policy Research Center a regional opinion research organization. We are
conducting a survey about issues facing your community. Your opinion is important.

[Q1: DECLINE TO STATE VOTERS ONLY]
1.

As someone who has registered to vote as DECLINE TO STATE, you have the ability to choose a Republican or
Democratic ballot in the 2010 Primary Election. If the Primary Election were held today, would you choose to vote
in the Republican or Democratic Primary Election or not in either?
[ROTATE] [PRESS FOR LEAN IF UNSURE]

Republican

86.2%

Lean Republican [DO NOT READ]

13.8%

[REMAINDER OF SURVEY: REGISTERED REPUBLICANS AND THOSE WHO RESPONDED “REPUBLICAN” IN Q1]
2.

June 8th is Election Day for California Governor. If the Republican Primary Election for Governor were held today,
for whom would you vote?
[PRESS FOR LEAN IF UNSURE]

 
 

Meg Whitman, Businesswoman

48.4%

Lean Meg Whitman [DO NOT READ]

6.0%

Steve Poizner, Businessman

19.9%

Lean Steve Poizner [DO NOT READ]

4.1%

Someone else [DO NOT READ]

3.9%

Unsure [DO NOT READ] [PRESS FOR LEAN]

16.4%

Refused [DO NOT READ]

1.3%

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

1

 
 

3.

June 8th is Election Day for U.S Senate. If the Republican Primary Election for U.S. Senate were held today, for
whom would you vote?
[PRESS FOR LEAN IF UNSURE]

5.

Carly Fiorina, Business Executive

36.5%

Lean Carly Fiorina [DO NOT READ]

3.5%

Chuck DeVore, Assemblyman/Military Reservist

12.0%

Lean Chuck DeVore [DO NOT READ]

0.9%

Tom Campbell, Economist/Business Educator

22.0%

Lean Tom Campbell [DO NOT READ]

2.5%

Someone else [DO NOT READ]

0.7%

Unsure [DO NOT READ] [PRESS FOR LEAN]

20.3%

Refused [DO NOT READ]

1.6%

And finally for demographic purposes only, which of the following best describes your ethnic background?

Latino/Hispanic

5.5%

White/Caucasian

82.1%

Black/African American

0.1%

Asian

3.9%

Other

4.3%

Refused [DO NOT READ]

4.1%

Thank you for your time. Have a great (day/evening).

 
 

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

2

 
 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS

CAPITOL WEEKLY/PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL
From Sunday, May 30 through Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Probolsky Research conducted a telephone survey of
likely June, 2010 Republican Primary Election voters
throughout California.
Our research revealed that Meg Whitman continues to
widen her strong lead in the Republican Primary Election
race for Governor, capturing over one-half (54.4%) of
respondents.
In a dramatic improvement for the Fiorina Campaign
since our last California survey, Carly Fiorina enjoys a
sizable lead in the Republican Primary Election for U.S.
Senate, capturing 40.0% of the vote.
Charts indicate aggregate responses to each question.
We have provided additional commentary to illustrate
those instances where certain demographics differ
significantly from the aggregate response.
A total of 751 voters were surveyed. A survey of this
size yields a margin of error of +/- 3.7% with a 95%
degree of confidence. Appropriate ratios were obtained
such as for gender, age group, ethnicity and geographic
area.
Interviews were conducted in English.
Probolsky Research LLC specializes in opinion
research on behalf of government, corporate,
political and media clients.

 
 

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

3

 
 

Meg Whitman holds a strong lead in the Republican Primary Election race for California Governor with over
one-half (54.4%) of the vote.

Steve Poizner

24.0%

Meg Whitman

54.4%

Unsure/refused/someone else

21.6%

 
Reflecting a continuous increase since we began tracking in January ‘09
90%
80%

Tom Campbell, Law Professor

70%
Meg Whitman, Businesswoman

60%
50%

Steve Poizner, Entrepreneur/Educator

40%
Someone else

30%
20%

Unsure/Refused

10%
0%
Jan-09

May-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

Jun-10

Whitman performs particularly well among women aged 55+ (59.6%), though that proportion slips to 46.7% of women
aged 18-54.
More DTS men support Whitman (55.0%) than DTS women, who are evenly divided in their support (40.0% Whitman;
40.0% Poizner).
More Republicans aged 55+ support Whitman (58.3%) than those aged 18-54 (49.4%, a plurality). Similarly, more DTS
voters aged 55+ support Whitman (62.5%) than those aged 18-54 (41.5%, a plurality).
23.5% of Latino/Hispanic voters are unsure.
65.6% of Central Coast voters support Whitman. Poizner exhibits slightly greater support within the San Francisco Bay area
(30.6%) than other regions, though he still trails Whitman who captures 48.8% of the vote.

 
 

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

4

 
 

Carly Fiorina enjoys a sizable lead in the Republican Primary Election for U.S. Senate.

Carly Fiorina

40.0%

Chuck DeVore

12.9%

Tom Campbell
Someone else

24.5%
0.7%

Unsure/refused

21.9%

Reflecting a dramatic gain since April 2010

45%
40%
35%

40.0%

Carly Fiorina

37.8%
30.6%

30%

Chuck DeVore

25%
20%
15%
10%

24.5%

22.5%

Tom Campell

17.1%
12.9%

14.5%

Unsure/Refused/someone else

5%
0%
Apr-10

Jun-10

 
A plurality of DTS voters (35.5%) support Campbell.
51.1% of those aged 65+ support Fiorina, while this proportion slips to 31.5% (a plurality) among those aged 35-54 and
27.0% (a plurality) of those aged 18-34.
More men aged 55+ support Fiorina (44.3%) than men aged 18-34 (28.2%, the same proportion that supports Campbell).
Similarly, more women aged 55+ support Fiorina (48.9%) than do women aged 18-54 (32.7%, a plurality).
More Republicans aged 55+ support Fiorina (47.1%) than Republicans aged 18-54 (31.3%).
Latino/Hispanic support is split evenly among the candidates (29.4% for each candidate).
Campbell enjoys a plurality of support (39.7%) in the San Francisco Bay Area.

 
 

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

5

 
 
CAPITOL WEEKLY - PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010
Table 1-1
Q1. As someone who has registered to vote as DECLINE TO STATE, you have the ability to choose a Republican or Democratic ballot in the 2010 Primary Election. If the Primary
Election were held today, would you choose to vote in the Republican or Democratic Primary Election or not in either?
BASE: TOTAL SAMPLE
GENDER
PARTY
AGE GROUP
GENDER/AGE
============= ============= =========================== ===========================
MEN
WOMEN
------------- ------------TOTAL
Male Female Rep
DTS
18-34 35-54 55-64
65+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -----TOTAL

65
100.0

40
100.0

25
100.0

0

65
100.0

17
100.0

24
100.0

14
100.0

10
100.0

26
100.0

14
100.0

15
100.0

10
100.0

REPUBLICAN
----------

65
100.0

40
100.0

25
100.0

0

65
100.0

17
100.0

24
100.0

14
100.0

10
100.0

26
100.0

14
100.0

15
100.0

10
100.0

REPUBLICAN

56
86.2

35
87.5

21
84.0

0

56
86.2

13
76.5

22
91.7

11
78.6

10
100.0

23
88.5

12
85.7

12
80.0

9
90.0

LEAN REPUBLICAN

9
13.8

5
12.5

4
16.0

0

9
13.8

4
23.5

2
8.3

3
21.4

0

3
11.5

2
14.3

3
20.0

1
10.0

 

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

6

 
 
CAPITOL WEEKLY - PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010
Table 1-2
Q1. As someone who has registered to vote as DECLINE TO STATE, you have the ability to choose a Republican or Democratic ballot in the 2010 Primary Election. If the Primary
Election were held today, would you choose to vote in the Republican or Democratic Primary Election or not in either?
BASE: TOTAL SAMPLE
PARTY/GENDER
PARTY/AGE
VOTE PROPENSITY
=========================== ========================================= =======================================================
GOP
DTS
GOP
DTS
DEM
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------100%
not
New
having RegisTOTAL
Men
Women
Men
Women 18-54
55+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
5/5
4/5
3/5
2/5
1/5
0/5
chance trant
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -----TOTAL

65
100.0

0

0

40
100.0

25
100.0

0

0

41
100.0

24
100.0

0

0

16
100.0

20
100.0

23
100.0

0

1
100.0

0

5
100.0

0

REPUBLICAN
----------

65
100.0

0

0

40
100.0

25
100.0

0

0

41
100.0

24
100.0

0

0

16
100.0

20
100.0

23
100.0

0

1
100.0

0

5
100.0

0

REPUBLICAN

56
86.2

0

0

35
87.5

21
84.0

0

0

35
85.4

21
87.5

0

0

15
93.8

16
80.0

20
87.0

0

0

0

5
100.0

0

LEAN REPUBLICAN

9
13.8

0

0

5
12.5

4
16.0

0

0

6
14.6

3
12.5

0

0

1
6.3

4
20.0

3
13.0

0

1
100.0

0

0

0

 

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

7

 
 
CAPITOL WEEKLY - PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010
Table 1-3
Q1. As someone who has registered to vote as DECLINE TO STATE, you have the ability to choose a Republican or Democratic ballot in the 2010 Primary Election. If the Primary
Election were held today, would you choose to vote in the Republican or Democratic Primary Election or not in either?
BASE: TOTAL SAMPLE
TYPE OF
REGISTRATION
VOTER
DATE
ETHNICITY
GEOGRAPHY
============== ============================= ======================================= ===================================================
San
Other
PerNorth- FranSouthmanent
Up To Up To Up To
Black/
ern
cisco
ern
Central
Absen<1
5
10
20
>20 Latino/
White/
African
CaliBay Central
Los
CaliMoun- Central
TOTAL
tee
Other Year Years Years Years Years Hispanic Caucasian American Asian Other fornia Area
Coast Angeles fornia tain
Valley
------ ------- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -------- --------- -------- ----- ----- ------ ----- ------- ------- ------ ------- ------TOTAL

65
100.0

25
100.0

40
1
21
21
15
7
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

4
100.0

54
100.0

0

7
100.0

0

1
19
100.0 100.0

6
100.0

4
100.0

22
100.0

0

13
100.0

REPUBLICAN
----------

65
100.0

25
100.0

40
1
21
21
15
7
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

4
100.0

54
100.0

0

7
100.0

0

1
19
100.0 100.0

6
100.0

4
100.0

22
100.0

0

13
100.0

REPUBLICAN

56
86.2

21
84.0

35
1
87.5 100.0

4
100.0

49
90.7

0

3
42.9

0

1
100.0

16
84.2

6
100.0

2
50.0

19
86.4

0

12
92.3

LEAN REPUBLICAN

9
13.8

4
16.0

5
12.5

0

5
9.3

0

4
57.1

0

0

3
15.8

0

2
50.0

3
13.6

0

1
7.7

 

0

19
90.5
2
9.5

14
15
7
66.7 100.0 100.0
7
33.3

0

0

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

8

 
 
CAPITOL WEEKLY - PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010
Table 2-1
Q2. June 8th is Election Day for California Governor. If the Republican Primary Election for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote?
BASE: TOTAL SAMPLE
GENDER
PARTY
AGE GROUP
GENDER/AGE
============= ============= =========================== ===========================
MEN
WOMEN
------------- ------------TOTAL
Male Female Rep
DTS
18-34 35-54 55-64
65+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -----TOTAL
MEG WHITMAN
----------MEG WHITMAN,
BUSINESSWOMAN
LEAN MEG WHITMAN
STEVE POIZNER
------------STEVE POIZNER,
BUSINESSMAN
LEAN STEVE POIZNER
SOMEONE ELSE
UNSURE
REFUSED

 

750
100.0

375
100.0

375
100.0

685
100.0

65
100.0

74
100.0

232
100.0

215
100.0

229
100.0

156
100.0

219
100.0

150
100.0

225
100.0

408
54.4

204
54.4

204
54.4

376
54.9

32
49.2

34
45.9

114
49.1

117
54.4

143
62.4

78
50.0

126
57.5

70
46.7

134
59.6

363
48.4

184
49.1

179
47.7

336
49.1

27
41.5

30
40.5

96
41.4

106
49.3

131
57.2

65
41.7

119
54.3

61
40.7

118
52.4

45
6.0

20
5.3

25
6.7

40
5.8

5
7.7

4
5.4

18
7.8

11
5.1

12
5.2

13
8.3

7
3.2

9
6.0

16
7.1

180
24.0

89
23.7

91
24.3

158
23.1

22
33.8

18
24.3

64
27.6

55
25.6

43
18.8

43
27.6

46
21.0

39
26.0

52
23.1

149
19.9

80
21.3

69
18.4

130
19.0

19
29.2

15
20.3

53
22.8

49
22.8

32
14.0

39
25.0

41
18.7

29
19.3

40
17.8

31
4.1

9
2.4

22
5.9

28
4.1

3
4.6

3
4.1

11
4.7

6
2.8

11
4.8

4
2.6

5
2.3

10
6.7

12
5.3

29
3.9

16
4.3

13
3.5

26
3.8

3
4.6

1
1.4

7
3.0

13
6.0

8
3.5

3
1.9

13
5.9

5
3.3

8
3.6

123
16.4

61
16.3

62
16.5

115
16.8

8
12.3

20
27.0

46
19.8

27
12.6

30
13.1

30
19.2

31
14.2

36
24.0

26
11.6

10
1.3

5
1.3

5
1.3

10
1.5

0

1
1.4

1
0.4

3
1.4

5
2.2

2
1.3

3
1.4

0

5
2.2

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

9

 
 
CAPITOL WEEKLY - PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010
Table 2-2
Q2. June 8th is Election Day for California Governor. If the Republican Primary Election for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote?
BASE: TOTAL SAMPLE
PARTY/GENDER
PARTY/AGE
VOTE PROPENSITY
=========================== ========================================= =======================================================
GOP
DTS
GOP
DTS
DEM
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------100%
not
New
having RegisTOTAL
Men
Women
Men
Women 18-54
55+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
5/5
4/5
3/5
2/5
1/5
0/5
chance trant
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -----TOTAL
MEG WHITMAN
----------MEG WHITMAN,
BUSINESSWOMAN
LEAN MEG WHITMAN
STEVE POIZNER
------------STEVE POIZNER,
BUSINESSMAN
LEAN STEVE POIZNER
SOMEONE ELSE
UNSURE
REFUSED

 

750
100.0

335
100.0

350
100.0

40
100.0

25
100.0

265
100.0

420
100.0

41
100.0

24
100.0

0

0

336
100.0

206
100.0

171
100.0

0

2
100.0

0

30
100.0

5
100.0

408
54.4

182
54.3

194
55.4

22
55.0

10
40.0

131
49.4

245
58.3

17
41.5

15
62.5

0

0

189
56.3

119
57.8

85
49.7

0

1
50.0

0

11
36.7

3
60.0

363
48.4

165
49.3

171
48.9

19
47.5

8
32.0

112
42.3

224
53.3

14
34.1

13
54.2

0

0

170
50.6

111
53.9

69
40.4

0

1
50.0

0

9
30.0

3
60.0

45
6.0

17
5.1

23
6.6

3
7.5

2
8.0

19
7.2

21
5.0

3
7.3

2
8.3

0

0

19
5.7

8
3.9

16
9.4

0

0

0

2
6.7

0

180
24.0

77
23.0

81
23.1

12
30.0

10
40.0

65
24.5

93
22.1

17
41.5

5
20.8

0

0

75
22.3

49
23.8

43
25.1

0

1
50.0

0

12
40.0

0

149
19.9

69
20.6

61
17.4

11
27.5

8
32.0

53
20.0

77
18.3

15
36.6

4
16.7

0

0

64
19.0

43
20.9

31
18.1

0

1
50.0

0

10
33.3

0

31
4.1

8
2.4

20
5.7

1
2.5

2
8.0

12
4.5

16
3.8

2
4.9

1
4.2

0

0

11
3.3

6
2.9

12
7.0

0

0

0

2
6.7

0

29
3.9

14
4.2

12
3.4

2
5.0

1
4.0

6
2.3

20
4.8

2
4.9

1
4.2

0

0

11
3.3

8
3.9

9
5.3

0

0

0

0

1
20.0

123
16.4

57
17.0

58
16.6

4
10.0

4
16.0

61
23.0

54
12.9

5
12.2

3
12.5

0

0

55
16.4

29
14.1

32
18.7

0

0

0

6
20.0

1
20.0

10
1.3

5
1.5

5
1.4

0

0

2
0.8

8
1.9

0

0

0

0

6
1.8

1
0.5

2
1.2

0

0

0

1
3.3

0

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

10

 
 
CAPITOL WEEKLY - PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010
Table 2-3
Q2. June 8th is Election Day for California Governor. If the Republican Primary Election for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote?
BASE: TOTAL SAMPLE
TYPE OF
REGISTRATION
VOTER
DATE
ETHNICITY
GEOGRAPHY
============== ============================= ======================================= ===================================================
San
Other
PerNorth- FranSouthmanent
Up To Up To Up To
Black/
ern
cisco
ern
Central
Absen<1
5
10
20
>20 Latino/
White/
African
CaliBay Central
Los
CaliMoun- Central
TOTAL
tee
Other Year Years Years Years Years Hispanic Caucasian American Asian Other fornia Area
Coast Angeles fornia tain
Valley
------ ------- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -------- --------- -------- ----- ----- ------ ----- ------- ------- ------ ------- ------TOTAL
MEG WHITMAN
----------MEG WHITMAN,
BUSINESSWOMAN
LEAN MEG WHITMAN
STEVE POIZNER
------------STEVE POIZNER,
BUSINESSMAN
LEAN STEVE POIZNER
SOMEONE ELSE
UNSURE
REFUSED

 

750
100.0

371
100.0

379
7
130
212
209
192
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

51
100.0

669
100.0

0

408
54.4

212
57.1

196
51.7

3
42.9

60
46.2

110
51.9

123
58.9

363
48.4

195
52.6

168
44.3

3
42.9

48
36.9

101
47.6

45
6.0

17
4.6

28
7.4

0

12
9.2

180
24.0

88
23.7

92
24.3

2
28.6

149
19.9

74
19.9

75
19.8

31
4.1

14
3.8

29
3.9

24
6
100.0 100.0

19
121
100.0 100.0

61
100.0

132
100.0

248
100.0

9
100.0

160
100.0

112
58.3

20
39.2

371
55.5

0

13
54.2

4
66.7

11
57.9

59
48.8

40
65.6

71
53.8

138
55.6

7
77.8

82
51.3

106
50.7

105
54.7

19
37.3

331
49.5

0

10
41.7

3
50.0

10
52.6

55
45.5

35
57.4

61
46.2

121
48.8

7
77.8

74
46.3

9
4.2

17
8.1

7
3.6

1
2.0

40
6.0

0

3
12.5

1
16.7

1
5.3

4
3.3

5
8.2

10
7.6

17
6.9

0

8
5.0

45
34.6

47
22.2

47
22.5

39
20.3

16
31.4

158
23.6

0

5
20.8

1
16.7

4
21.1

37
30.6

11
18.0

31
23.5

55
22.2

1
11.1

41
25.6

2
28.6

37
28.5

40
18.9

37
17.7

33
17.2

11
21.6

132
19.7

0

5
20.8

1
16.7

4
21.1

30
24.8

10
16.4

25
18.9

45
18.1

0

35
21.9

17
4.5

0

8
6.2

7
3.3

10
4.8

6
3.1

5
9.8

26
3.9

0

0

0

0

7
5.8

1
1.6

6
4.5

10
4.0

1
11.1

6
3.8

15
4.0

14
3.7

1
14.3

3
2.3

10
4.7

9
4.3

6
3.1

3
5.9

25
3.7

0

1
4.2

0

2
10.5

8
6.6

0

6
4.5

8
3.2

0

5
3.1

123
16.4

51
13.7

72
19.0

1
14.3

19
14.6

41
19.3

29
13.9

33
17.2

12
23.5

105
15.7

0

5
20.8

1
16.7

2
10.5

16
13.2

10
16.4

19
14.4

45
18.1

1
11.1

30
18.8

10
1.3

5
1.3

5
1.3

0

3
2.3

4
1.9

1
0.5

2
1.0

0

10
1.5

0

0

0

0

1
0.8

0

5
3.8

2
0.8

0

2
1.3

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

11

 
 
CAPITOL WEEKLY - PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010
Table 3-1
Q3. June 8th is Election Day for U.S Senate. If the Republican Primary Election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote?
BASE: TOTAL SAMPLE
GENDER
PARTY
AGE GROUP
GENDER/AGE
============= ============= =========================== ===========================
MEN
WOMEN
------------- ------------TOTAL
Male Female Rep
DTS
18-34 35-54 55-64
65+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -----TOTAL
CARLY FIORINA
------------CARLY FIORINA, BUSINESS
EXECUTIVE
LEAN CARLY FIORINA
CHUCK DEVORE
-----------CHUCK DEVORE,
ASSEMBLYMAN/MILITARY
RESERVIST
LEAN CHUCK DEVORE
TOM CAMPBELL
-----------TOM CAMPBELL, ECONOMIST/
BUSINESS EDUCATOR
LEAN TOM CAMPBELL
SOMEONE ELSE
UNSURE
REFUSED

 

750
100.0

375
100.0

375
100.0

685
100.0

65
100.0

74
100.0

232
100.0

215
100.0

229
100.0

156
100.0

219
100.0

150
100.0

225
100.0

300
40.0

141
37.6

159
42.4

281
41.0

19
29.2

20
27.0

73
31.5

90
41.9

117
51.1

44
28.2

97
44.3

49
32.7

110
48.9

274
36.5

134
35.7

140
37.3

256
37.4

18
27.7

18
24.3

65
28.0

82
38.1

109
47.6

40
25.6

94
42.9

43
28.7

97
43.1

26
3.5

7
1.9

19
5.1

25
3.6

1
1.5

2
2.7

8
3.4

8
3.7

8
3.5

4
2.6

3
1.4

6
4.0

13
5.8

97
12.9

61
16.3

36
9.6

88
12.8

9
13.8

5
6.8

38
16.4

34
15.8

20
8.7

30
19.2

31
14.2

13
8.7

23
10.2

90
12.0

55
14.7

35
9.3

83
12.1

7
10.8

4
5.4

34
14.7

33
15.3

19
8.3

26
16.7

29
13.2

12
8.0

23
10.2

7
0.9

6
1.6

1
0.3

5
0.7

2
3.1

1
1.4

4
1.7

1
0.5

1
0.4

4
2.6

2
0.9

1
0.7

0

184
24.5

103
27.5

81
21.6

161
23.5

23
35.4

17
23.0

61
26.3

47
21.9

59
25.8

45
28.8

58
26.5

33
22.0

48
21.3

165
22.0

92
24.5

73
19.5

145
21.2

20
30.8

14
18.9

59
25.4

41
19.1

51
22.3

42
26.9

50
22.8

31
20.7

42
18.7

19
2.5

11
2.9

8
2.1

16
2.3

3
4.6

3
4.1

2
0.9

6
2.8

8
3.5

3
1.9

8
3.7

2
1.3

6
2.7

5
0.7

5
1.3

0

5
0.7

0

0

2
0.9

1
0.5

2
0.9

2
1.3

3
1.4

0

0

152
20.3

59
15.7

93
24.8

138
20.1

14
21.5

30
40.5

57
24.6

40
18.6

25
10.9

32
20.5

27
12.3

55
36.7

38
16.9

12
1.6

6
1.6

6
1.6

12
1.8

0

2
2.7

1
0.4

3
1.4

6
2.6

3
1.9

3
1.4

0

6
2.7

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

12

 
 
CAPITOL WEEKLY - PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010
Table 3-2
Q3. June 8th is Election Day for U.S Senate. If the Republican Primary Election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote?
BASE: TOTAL SAMPLE
PARTY/GENDER
PARTY/AGE
VOTE PROPENSITY
=========================== ========================================= =======================================================
GOP
DTS
GOP
DTS
DEM
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------100%
not
New
having RegisTOTAL
Men
Women
Men
Women 18-54
55+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
5/5
4/5
3/5
2/5
1/5
0/5
chance trant
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -----TOTAL
CARLY FIORINA
------------CARLY FIORINA, BUSINESS
EXECUTIVE
LEAN CARLY FIORINA
CHUCK DEVORE
-----------CHUCK DEVORE,
ASSEMBLYMAN/MILITARY
RESERVIST
LEAN CHUCK DEVORE
TOM CAMPBELL
-----------TOM CAMPBELL, ECONOMIST/
BUSINESS EDUCATOR
LEAN TOM CAMPBELL
SOMEONE ELSE
UNSURE
REFUSED

 

750
100.0

335
100.0

350
100.0

40
100.0

25
100.0

265
100.0

420
100.0

41
100.0

24
100.0

0

0

336
100.0

206
100.0

171
100.0

0

2
100.0

0

30
100.0

5
100.0

300
40.0

130
38.8

151
43.1

11
27.5

8
32.0

83
31.3

198
47.1

10
24.4

9
37.5

0

0

148
44.0

80
38.8

59
34.5

0

0

0

11
36.7

2
40.0

274
36.5

123
36.7

133
38.0

11
27.5

7
28.0

73
27.5

183
43.6

10
24.4

8
33.3

0

0

133
39.6

73
35.4

55
32.2

0

0

0

11
36.7

2
40.0

26
3.5

7
2.1

18
5.1

0

1
4.0

10
3.8

15
3.6

0

1
4.2

0

0

15
4.5

7
3.4

4
2.3

0

0

0

0

0

97
12.9

53
15.8

35
10.0

8
20.0

1
4.0

40
15.1

48
11.4

3
7.3

6
25.0

0

0

43
12.8

33
16.0

18
10.5

0

1
50.0

0

2
6.7

0

90
12.0

49
14.6

34
9.7

6
15.0

1
4.0

36
13.6

47
11.2

2
4.9

5
20.8

0

0

42
12.5

32
15.5

14
8.2

0

1
50.0

0

1
3.3

0

7
0.9

4
1.2

1
0.3

2
5.0

0

4
1.5

1
0.2

1
2.4

1
4.2

0

0

1
0.3

1
0.5

4
2.3

0

0

0

1
3.3

0

184
24.5

90
26.9

71
20.3

13
32.5

10
40.0

62
23.4

99
23.6

16
39.0

7
29.2

0

0

84
25.0

50
24.3

40
23.4

0

1
50.0

0

8
26.7

1
20.0

165
22.0

80
23.9

65
18.6

12
30.0

8
32.0

58
21.9

87
20.7

15
36.6

5
20.8

0

0

76
22.6

43
20.9

37
21.6

0

1
50.0

0

7
23.3

1
20.0

19
2.5

10
3.0

6
1.7

1
2.5

2
8.0

4
1.5

12
2.9

1
2.4

2
8.3

0

0

8
2.4

7
3.4

3
1.8

0

0

0

1
3.3

0

5
0.7

5
1.5

0

0

0

2
0.8

3
0.7

0

0

0

0

1
0.3

1
0.5

3
1.8

0

0

0

0

0

152
20.3

51
15.2

87
24.9

8
20.0

6
24.0

75
28.3

63
15.0

12
29.3

2
8.3

0

0

54
16.1

39
18.9

48
28.1

0

0

0

9
30.0

2
40.0

12
1.6

6
1.8

6
1.7

0

0

3
1.1

9
2.1

0

0

0

0

6
1.8

3
1.5

3
1.8

0

0

0

0

0

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

13

 
 
CAPITOL WEEKLY - PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010
Table 3-3
Q3. June 8th is Election Day for U.S Senate. If the Republican Primary Election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote?
BASE: TOTAL SAMPLE
TYPE OF
REGISTRATION
VOTER
DATE
ETHNICITY
GEOGRAPHY
============== ============================= ======================================= ===================================================
San
Other
PerNorth- FranSouthmanent
Up To Up To Up To
Black/
ern
cisco
ern
Central
Absen<1
5
10
20
>20 Latino/
White/
African
CaliBay Central
Los
CaliMoun- Central
TOTAL
tee
Other Year Years Years Years Years Hispanic Caucasian American Asian Other fornia Area
Coast Angeles fornia tain
Valley
------ ------- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -------- --------- -------- ----- ----- ------ ----- ------- ------- ------ ------- ------TOTAL
CARLY FIORINA
------------CARLY FIORINA, BUSINESS
EXECUTIVE
LEAN CARLY FIORINA
CHUCK DEVORE
-----------CHUCK DEVORE,
ASSEMBLYMAN/MILITARY
RESERVIST
LEAN CHUCK DEVORE
TOM CAMPBELL
-----------TOM CAMPBELL, ECONOMIST/
BUSINESS EDUCATOR
LEAN TOM CAMPBELL
SOMEONE ELSE
UNSURE
REFUSED

 

750
100.0

371
100.0

379
7
130
212
209
192
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

51
100.0

669
100.0

0

300
40.0

157
42.3

143
37.7

3
42.9

53
40.8

69
32.5

82
39.2

274
36.5

149
40.2

125
33.0

3
42.9

50
38.5

59
27.8

26
3.5

8
2.2

18
4.7

0

3
2.3

97
12.9

47
12.7

50
13.2

0

90
12.0

46
12.4

44
11.6

7
0.9

1
0.3

184
24.5

24
6
100.0 100.0

19
121
100.0 100.0

61
100.0

132
100.0

248
100.0

9
100.0

160
100.0

93
48.4

15
29.4

274
41.0

0

8
33.3

3
50.0

11
57.9

33
27.3

28
45.9

45
34.1

108
43.5

7
77.8

68
42.5

71
34.0

91
47.4

15
29.4

249
37.2

0

7
29.2

3
50.0

9
47.4

30
24.8

25
41.0

38
28.8

104
41.9

7
77.8

61
38.1

10
4.7

11
5.3

2
1.0

0

25
3.7

0

1
4.2

0

2
10.5

3
2.5

3
4.9

7
5.3

4
1.6

0

7
4.4

14
10.8

30
14.2

30
14.4

23
12.0

5
9.8

89
13.3

0

1
4.2

2
33.3

1
5.3

17
14.0

6
9.8

14
10.6

39
15.7

0

20
12.5

0

13
10.0

27
12.7

28
13.4

22
11.5

3
5.9

84
12.6

0

1
4.2

2
33.3

1
5.3

17
14.0

5
8.2

14
10.6

34
13.7

0

19
11.9

6
1.6

0

1
0.8

3
1.4

2
1.0

1
0.5

2
3.9

5
0.7

0

0

0

0

0

1
1.6

0

5
2.0

0

1
0.6

95
25.6

89
23.5

1
14.3

33
25.4

43
20.3

63
30.1

44
22.9

15
29.4

162
24.2

0

7
29.2

0

1
5.3

48
39.7

13
21.3

36
27.3

48
19.4

1
11.1

37
23.1

165
22.0

88
23.7

77
20.3

1
14.3

28
21.5

37
17.5

59
28.2

40
20.8

15
29.4

144
21.5

0

6
25.0

0

1
5.3

44
36.4

12
19.7

30
22.7

45
18.1

1
11.1

32
20.0

19
2.5

7
1.9

12
3.2

0

5
3.8

6
2.8

4
1.9

4
2.1

0

18
2.7

0

1
4.2

0

0

4
3.3

1
1.6

6
4.5

3
1.2

0

5
3.1

5
0.7

1
0.3

4
1.1

0

0

2
0.9

2
1.0

1
0.5

1
2.0

3
0.4

0

1
4.2

0

0

1
0.8

0

0

2
0.8

0

2
1.3

152
20.3

64
17.3

88
23.2

3
42.9

28
21.5

62
29.2

31
14.8

28
14.6

14
27.5

130
19.4

0

7
29.2

1
16.7

6
31.6

22
18.2

13
21.3

32
24.2

48
19.4

1
11.1

30
18.8

12
1.6

7
1.9

5
1.3

0

2
1.5

6
2.8

1
0.5

3
1.6

1
2.0

11
1.6

0

0

0

0

0

1
1.6

5
3.8

3
1.2

0

3
1.9

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

14

 
 
CAPITOL WEEKLY - PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010
Table 5-1
Q5. And finally for demographic purposes only, which of the following best describes your ethnic background?
BASE: TOTAL SAMPLE
GENDER
PARTY
AGE GROUP
GENDER/AGE
============= ============= =========================== ===========================
MEN
WOMEN
------------- ------------TOTAL
Male Female Rep
DTS
18-34 35-54 55-64
65+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -----TOTAL

750
100.0

375
100.0

375
100.0

685
100.0

65
100.0

74
100.0

232
100.0

215
100.0

229
100.0

156
100.0

219
100.0

150
100.0

225
100.0

LATINO/HISPANIC

41
5.5

24
6.4

17
4.5

37
5.4

4
6.2

11
14.9

16
6.9

9
4.2

5
2.2

17
10.9

7
3.2

10
6.7

7
3.1

WHITE/CAUCASIAN

616
82.1

297
79.2

319
85.1

571
83.4

45
69.2

48
64.9

194
83.6

174
80.9

200
87.3

114
73.1

183
83.6

128
85.3

191
84.9

BLACK/AFRICAN AMERICAN

1
0.1

0

1
0.3

1
0.1

0

0

0

0

1
0.4

0

0

0

1
0.4

ASIAN

29
3.9

14
3.7

15
4.0

19
2.8

10
15.4

8
10.8

9
3.9

9
4.2

3
1.3

10
6.4

4
1.8

7
4.7

8
3.6

OTHER

32
4.3

23
6.1

9
2.4

27
3.9

5
7.7

4
5.4

8
3.4

13
6.0

7
3.1

10
6.4

13
5.9

2
1.3

7
3.1

REFUSED

31
4.1

17
4.5

14
3.7

30
4.4

1
1.5

3
4.1

5
2.2

10
4.7

13
5.7

5
3.2

12
5.5

3
2.0

11
4.9

 

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

15

 
 
CAPITOL WEEKLY - PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010
Table 5-2
Q5. And finally for demographic purposes only, which of the following best describes your ethnic background?
BASE: TOTAL SAMPLE
PARTY/GENDER
PARTY/AGE
VOTE PROPENSITY
=========================== ========================================= =======================================================
GOP
DTS
GOP
DTS
DEM
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------100%
not
New
having RegisTOTAL
Men
Women
Men
Women 18-54
55+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
5/5
4/5
3/5
2/5
1/5
0/5
chance trant
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -----TOTAL

750
100.0

335
100.0

350
100.0

40
100.0

25
100.0

265
100.0

420
100.0

41
100.0

24
100.0

0

0

336
100.0

206
100.0

171
100.0

0

2
100.0

0

30
100.0

5
100.0

LATINO/HISPANIC

41
5.5

21
6.3

16
4.6

3
7.5

1
4.0

23
8.7

14
3.3

4
9.8

0

0

0

10
3.0

10
4.9

19
11.1

0

0

0

1
3.3

1
20.0

WHITE/CAUCASIAN

616
82.1

271
80.9

300
85.7

26
65.0

19
76.0

216
81.5

355
84.5

26
63.4

19
79.2

0

0

283
84.2

173
84.0

130
76.0

0

2
100.0

0

24
80.0

4
80.0

BLACK/AFRICAN AMERICAN

1
0.1

0

1
0.3

0

0

0

1
0.2

0

0

0

0

0

0

1
0.6

0

0

0

0

0

ASIAN

29
3.9

9
2.7

10
2.9

5
12.5

5
20.0

9
3.4

10
2.4

8
19.5

2
8.3

0

0

10
3.0

6
2.9

11
6.4

0

0

0

2
6.7

0

OTHER

32
4.3

18
5.4

9
2.6

5
12.5

0

10
3.8

17
4.0

2
4.9

3
12.5

0

0

16
4.8

9
4.4

6
3.5

0

0

0

1
3.3

0

REFUSED

31
4.1

16
4.8

14
4.0

1
2.5

0

7
2.6

23
5.5

1
2.4

0

0

0

17
5.1

8
3.9

4
2.3

0

0

0

2
6.7

0

 

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

16

 
 
CAPITOL WEEKLY - PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010
Table 5-3
Q5. And finally for demographic purposes only, which of the following best describes your ethnic background?
BASE: TOTAL SAMPLE
TYPE OF
REGISTRATION
VOTER
DATE
ETHNICITY
GEOGRAPHY
============== ============================= ======================================= ===================================================
San
Other
PerNorth- FranSouthmanent
Up To Up To Up To
Black/
ern
cisco
ern
Central
Absen<1
5
10
20
>20 Latino/
White/
African
CaliBay Central
Los
CaliMoun- Central
TOTAL
tee
Other Year Years Years Years Years Hispanic Caucasian American Asian Other fornia Area
Coast Angeles fornia tain
Valley
------ ------- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -------- --------- -------- ----- ----- ------ ----- ------- ------- ------ ------- ------TOTAL

750
100.0

371
100.0

LATINO/HISPANIC

41
5.5

9
2.4

32
8.4

2
28.6

9
6.9

16
7.5

13
6.2

WHITE/CAUCASIAN

616
82.1

312
84.1

304
80.2

5
71.4

103
79.2

171
80.7

BLACK/AFRICAN AMERICAN

1
0.1

1
0.3

0

0

0

ASIAN

29
3.9

18
4.9

11
2.9

0

OTHER

32
4.3

16
4.3

16
4.2

REFUSED

31
4.1

15
4.0

16
4.2

 

379
7
130
212
209
192
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

51
100.0

669
100.0

0

24
6
100.0 100.0

1
0.5

29
56.9

12
1.8

0

169
80.9

168
87.5

16
31.4

591
88.3

0

0

0

1
0.5

0

1
0.1

0

0

5
3.8

13
6.1

5
2.4

6
3.1

0

9
1.3

0

0

6
4.6

6
2.8

14
6.7

6
3.1

4
7.8

27
4.0

0

7
5.4

6
2.8

8
3.8

10
5.2

2
3.9

29
4.3

0

19
121
100.0 100.0

61
100.0

132
100.0

248
100.0

9
100.0

160
100.0

0

1
5.3

4
3.3

2
3.3

12
9.1

16
6.5

0

6
3.8

3
6
12.5 100.0

14
73.7

93
76.9

47
77.0

107
81.1

210
84.7

8
88.9

137
85.6

0

0

1
0.8

0

0

0

0

0

20
83.3

0

0

10
8.3

2
3.3

6
4.5

10
4.0

0

1
0.6

0

1
4.2

0

0

5
4.1

6
9.8

2
1.5

9
3.6

0

10
6.3

0

0

0

4
21.1

8
6.6

4
6.6

5
3.8

3
1.2

1
11.1

6
3.8

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

17

 
 
Table 6-1
GENDER
Base: Total Sample

Total

CAPITOL WEEKLY

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

GENDER
PARTY
AGE GROUP
GENDER/AGE
============= ============= =========================== ===========================
MEN
WOMEN
------------- ------------TOTAL
Male Female Rep
DTS
18-34 35-54 55-64
65+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -----750
100.0

375
100.0

375
100.0

685
100.0

65
100.0

74
100.0

232
100.0

215
100.0

229
100.0

156
100.0

219
100.0

150
100.0

225
100.0

Male

375
50.0

375
100.0

0

335
48.9

40
61.5

37
50.0

119
51.3

107
49.8

112
48.9

156
100.0

219
100.0

0

0

Female

375
50.0

0

375
100.0

350
51.1

25
38.5

37
50.0

113
48.7

108
50.2

117
51.1

0

0

150
100.0

225
100.0

 

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

18

 
 
Table 6-2
GENDER
Base: Total Sample

Total

CAPITOL WEEKLY

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

PARTY/GENDER
PARTY/AGE
VOTE PROPENSITY
=========================== ========================================= =======================================================
GOP
DTS
GOP
DTS
DEM
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------100%
not
New
having RegisTOTAL
Men
Women
Men
Women 18-54
55+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
5/5
4/5
3/5
2/5
1/5
0/5
chance trant
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -----750
100.0

335
100.0

350
100.0

40
100.0

25
100.0

265
100.0

420
100.0

41
100.0

24
100.0

0

0

336
100.0

206
100.0

171
100.0

0

2
100.0

0

30
100.0

5
100.0

Male

375
50.0

335
100.0

0

40
100.0

0

130
49.1

205
48.8

26
63.4

14
58.3

0

0

178
53.0

99
48.1

78
45.6

0

1
50.0

0

16
53.3

3
60.0

Female

375
50.0

0

350
100.0

0

25
100.0

135
50.9

215
51.2

15
36.6

10
41.7

0

0

158
47.0

107
51.9

93
54.4

0

1
50.0

0

14
46.7

2
40.0

 

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

19

 
 
Table 6-3
GENDER
Base: Total Sample

Total

CAPITOL WEEKLY

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

TYPE OF
REGISTRATION
VOTER
DATE
ETHNICITY
GEOGRAPHY
============== ============================= ======================================= ===================================================
San
Other
PerNorth- FranSouthmanent
Up To Up To Up To
Black/
ern
cisco
ern
Central
Absen<1
5
10
20
>20 Latino/
White/
African
CaliBay Central
Los
CaliMoun- Central
TOTAL
tee
Other Year Years Years Years Years Hispanic Caucasian American Asian Other fornia Area
Coast Angeles fornia tain
Valley
------ ------- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -------- --------- -------- ----- ----- ------ ----- ------- ------- ------ ------- ------750
100.0

371
100.0

Male

375
50.0

171
46.1

204
53.8

5
71.4

66
50.8

105
49.5

103
49.3

Female

375
50.0

200
53.9

175
46.2

2
28.6

64
49.2

107
50.5

106
50.7

 

379
7
130
212
209
192
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

51
100.0

669
100.0

0

24
6
100.0 100.0

19
121
100.0 100.0

96
50.0

26
51.0

332
49.6

0

13
54.2

4
66.7

9
47.4

96
50.0

25
49.0

337
50.4

0

11
45.8

2
33.3

10
52.6

61
100.0

132
100.0

248
100.0

9
100.0

160
100.0

63
52.1

33
54.1

60
45.5

122
49.2

5
55.6

83
51.9

58
47.9

28
45.9

72
54.5

126
50.8

4
44.4

77
48.1

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

20

 
 
Table 7-1
PARTY
Base: Total Sample

Total
Republican
Decline To State (DTS)
Other

 

CAPITOL WEEKLY

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

GENDER
PARTY
AGE GROUP
GENDER/AGE
============= ============= =========================== ===========================
MEN
WOMEN
------------- ------------TOTAL
Male Female Rep
DTS
18-34 35-54 55-64
65+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -----750
100.0

375
100.0

375
100.0

685
100.0

65
100.0

74
100.0

232
100.0

215
100.0

229
100.0

156
100.0

219
100.0

150
100.0

225
100.0

685
91.3

335
89.3

350
93.3

685
100.0

0

57
77.0

208
89.7

201
93.5

219
95.6

130
83.3

205
93.6

135
90.0

215
95.6

65
8.7

40
10.7

25
6.7

0

65
100.0

17
23.0

24
10.3

14
6.5

10
4.4

26
16.7

14
6.4

15
10.0

10
4.4

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

21

 
 
Table 7-2
PARTY
Base: Total Sample

Total
Republican
Decline To State (DTS)
Other

 

CAPITOL WEEKLY

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

PARTY/GENDER
PARTY/AGE
VOTE PROPENSITY
=========================== ========================================= =======================================================
GOP
DTS
GOP
DTS
DEM
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------100%
not
New
having RegisTOTAL
Men
Women
Men
Women 18-54
55+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
5/5
4/5
3/5
2/5
1/5
0/5
chance trant
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -----750
100.0

335
100.0

350
100.0

40
100.0

25
100.0

265
100.0

420
100.0

41
100.0

24
100.0

0

0

336
100.0

206
100.0

171
100.0

0

2
100.0

0

30
100.0

5
100.0

685
91.3

335
100.0

350
100.0

0

0

265
100.0

420
100.0

0

0

0

0

320
95.2

186
90.3

148
86.5

0

1
50.0

0

25
83.3

5
100.0

65
8.7

0

0

40
100.0

25
100.0

0

0

41
100.0

24
100.0

0

0

16
4.8

20
9.7

23
13.5

0

1
50.0

0

5
16.7

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

22

 
 
Table 7-3
PARTY
Base: Total Sample

Total
Republican
Decline To State (DTS)
Other

 

CAPITOL WEEKLY

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

TYPE OF
REGISTRATION
VOTER
DATE
ETHNICITY
GEOGRAPHY
============== ============================= ======================================= ===================================================
San
Other
PerNorth- FranSouthmanent
Up To Up To Up To
Black/
ern
cisco
ern
Central
Absen<1
5
10
20
>20 Latino/
White/
African
CaliBay Central
Los
CaliMoun- Central
TOTAL
tee
Other Year Years Years Years Years Hispanic Caucasian American Asian Other fornia Area
Coast Angeles fornia tain
Valley
------ ------- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -------- --------- -------- ----- ----- ------ ----- ------- ------- ------ ------- ------750
100.0

371
100.0

379
7
130
212
209
192
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

51
100.0

669
100.0

0

24
6
100.0 100.0

685
91.3

346
93.3

339
89.4

6
85.7

109
83.8

191
90.1

194
92.8

185
96.4

47
92.2

615
91.9

0

17
6
70.8 100.0

65
8.7

25
6.7

40
10.6

1
14.3

21
16.2

21
9.9

15
7.2

7
3.6

4
7.8

54
8.1

0

7
29.2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

19
121
100.0 100.0

61
100.0

132
100.0

248
100.0

9
100.0

160
100.0

18
94.7

102
84.3

55
90.2

128
97.0

226
91.1

9
100.0

147
91.9

0

1
5.3

19
15.7

6
9.8

4
3.0

22
8.9

0

13
8.1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

23

 
 
Table 8-1
AGE GROUP
Base: Total Sample

CAPITOL WEEKLY

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

GENDER
PARTY
AGE GROUP
GENDER/AGE
============= ============= =========================== ===========================
MEN
WOMEN
------------- ------------TOTAL
Male Female Rep
DTS
18-34 35-54 55-64
65+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

Total

750
100.0

375
100.0

375
100.0

685
100.0

65
100.0

74
100.0

232
100.0

215
100.0

229
100.0

156
100.0

219
100.0

150
100.0

225
100.0

18-34

74
9.9

37
9.9

37
9.9

57
8.3

17
26.2

74
100.0

0

0

0

37
23.7

0

37
24.7

0

35-54

232
30.9

119
31.7

113
30.1

208
30.4

24
36.9

0

232
100.0

0

0

119
76.3

0

113
75.3

0

55-64

215
28.7

107
28.5

108
28.8

201
29.3

14
21.5

0

0

215
100.0

0

0

107
48.9

0

108
48.0

65 AND OLDER

229
30.5

112
29.9

117
31.2

219
32.0

10
15.4

0

0

0

229
100.0

0

112
51.1

0

117
52.0

 

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

24

 
 
Table 8-2
AGE GROUP
Base: Total Sample

CAPITOL WEEKLY

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

PARTY/GENDER
PARTY/AGE
VOTE PROPENSITY
=========================== ========================================= =======================================================
GOP
DTS
GOP
DTS
DEM
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------100%
not
New
having RegisTOTAL
Men
Women
Men
Women 18-54
55+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
5/5
4/5
3/5
2/5
1/5
0/5
chance trant
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

Total

750
100.0

335
100.0

350
100.0

40
100.0

25
100.0

265
100.0

420
100.0

41
100.0

24
100.0

0

0

336
100.0

206
100.0

171
100.0

0

2
100.0

0

30
100.0

5
100.0

18-34

74
9.9

26
7.8

31
8.9

11
27.5

6
24.0

57
21.5

0

17
41.5

0

0

0

12
3.6

19
9.2

27
15.8

0

0

0

12
40.0

4
80.0

35-54

232
30.9

104
31.0

104
29.7

15
37.5

9
36.0

208
78.5

0

24
58.5

0

0

0

84
25.0

69
33.5

71
41.5

0

2
100.0

0

6
20.0

0

55-64

215
28.7

97
29.0

104
29.7

10
25.0

4
16.0

0

201
47.9

0

14
58.3

0

0

99
29.5

63
30.6

45
26.3

0

0

0

7
23.3

1
20.0

65 AND OLDER

229
30.5

108
32.2

111
31.7

4
10.0

6
24.0

0

219
52.1

0

10
41.7

0

0

141
42.0

55
26.7

28
16.4

0

0

0

5
16.7

0

 

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

25

 
 
Table 8-3
AGE GROUP
Base: Total Sample

CAPITOL WEEKLY

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

TYPE OF
REGISTRATION
VOTER
DATE
ETHNICITY
GEOGRAPHY
============== ============================= ======================================= ===================================================
San
Other
PerNorth- FranSouthmanent
Up To Up To Up To
Black/
ern
cisco
ern
Central
Absen<1
5
10
20
>20 Latino/
White/
African
CaliBay Central
Los
CaliMoun- Central
TOTAL
tee
Other Year Years Years Years Years Hispanic Caucasian American Asian Other fornia Area
Coast Angeles fornia tain
Valley
------ ------- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -------- --------- -------- ----- ----- ------ ----- ------- ------- ------ ------- -------

Total

750
100.0

371
100.0

18-34

74
9.9

32
8.6

42
11.1

5
71.4

36
27.7

24
11.3

7
3.3

35-54

232
30.9

90
24.3

142
37.5

0

36
27.7

85
40.1

55-64

215
28.7

100
27.0

115
30.3

1
14.3

28
21.5

65 AND OLDER

229
30.5

149
40.2

80
21.1

1
14.3

30
23.1

 

379
7
130
212
209
192
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

51
100.0

669
100.0

0

24
6
100.0 100.0

19
121
100.0 100.0

61
100.0

132
100.0

248
100.0

9
100.0

160
100.0

2
1.0

9
17.6

56
8.4

0

8
33.3

1
16.7

0

12
9.9

8
13.1

14
10.6

26
10.5

1
11.1

13
8.1

81
38.8

30
15.6

24
47.1

200
29.9

0

6
25.0

2
33.3

6
31.6

40
33.1

17
27.9

31
23.5

85
34.3

3
33.3

50
31.3

57
26.9

67
32.1

62
32.3

10
19.6

194
29.0

0

9
37.5

2
33.3

5
26.3

39
32.2

17
27.9

50
37.9

60
24.2

1
11.1

43
26.9

46
21.7

54
25.8

98
51.0

8
15.7

219
32.7

0

1
4.2

1
16.7

8
42.1

30
24.8

19
31.1

37
28.0

77
31.0

4
44.4

54
33.8

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

26

 
 
Table 9-1
VOTE PROPENSITY
Base: Total Sample

Total

CAPITOL WEEKLY

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

GENDER
PARTY
AGE GROUP
GENDER/AGE
============= ============= =========================== ===========================
MEN
WOMEN
------------- ------------TOTAL
Male Female Rep
DTS
18-34 35-54 55-64
65+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -----750
100.0

375
100.0

375
100.0

685
100.0

65
100.0

74
100.0

232
100.0

215
100.0

229
100.0

156
100.0

219
100.0

150
100.0

225
100.0

5/5 past elections

336
44.8

178
47.5

158
42.1

320
46.7

16
24.6

12
16.2

84
36.2

99
46.0

141
61.6

53
34.0

125
57.1

43
28.7

115
51.1

4/5 past elections

206
27.5

99
26.4

107
28.5

186
27.2

20
30.8

19
25.7

69
29.7

63
29.3

55
24.0

47
30.1

52
23.7

41
27.3

66
29.3

3/5 past elections

171
22.8

78
20.8

93
24.8

148
21.6

23
35.4

27
36.5

71
30.6

45
20.9

28
12.2

43
27.6

35
16.0

55
36.7

38
16.9

1/5 past elections

2
0.3

1
0.3

1
0.3

1
0.1

1
1.5

0

2
0.9

0

0

1
0.6

0

1
0.7

0

100% Not Having Had The
Chance

30
4.0

16
4.3

14
3.7

25
3.6

5
7.7

12
16.2

6
2.6

7
3.3

5
2.2

9
5.8

7
3.2

9
6.0

5
2.2

New Registrant

5
0.7

3
0.8

2
0.5

5
0.7

0

4
5.4

0

1
0.5

0

3
1.9

0

1
0.7

1
0.4

 

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

27

 
 
Table 9-2
VOTE PROPENSITY
Base: Total Sample

Total

CAPITOL WEEKLY

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

PARTY/GENDER
PARTY/AGE
VOTE PROPENSITY
=========================== ========================================= =======================================================
GOP
DTS
GOP
DTS
DEM
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------100%
not
New
having RegisTOTAL
Men
Women
Men
Women 18-54
55+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
5/5
4/5
3/5
2/5
1/5
0/5
chance trant
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -----750
100.0

335
100.0

350
100.0

40
100.0

25
100.0

265
100.0

420
100.0

41
100.0

24
100.0

0

0

336
100.0

206
100.0

171
100.0

0

2
100.0

0

30
100.0

5
100.0

5/5 past elections

336
44.8

167
49.9

153
43.7

11
27.5

5
20.0

89
33.6

231
55.0

7
17.1

9
37.5

0

0

336
100.0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

4/5 past elections

206
27.5

87
26.0

99
28.3

12
30.0

8
32.0

76
28.7

110
26.2

12
29.3

8
33.3

0

0

0

206
100.0

0

0

0

0

0

0

3/5 past elections

171
22.8

64
19.1

84
24.0

14
35.0

9
36.0

81
30.6

67
16.0

17
41.5

6
25.0

0

0

0

0

171
100.0

0

0

0

0

0

1/5 past elections

2
0.3

1
0.3

0

0

1
4.0

1
0.4

0

1
2.4

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2
100.0

0

0

0

100% Not Having Had The
Chance

30
4.0

13
3.9

12
3.4

3
7.5

2
8.0

14
5.3

11
2.6

4
9.8

1
4.2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

30
100.0

0

New Registrant

5
0.7

3
0.9

2
0.6

0

0

4
1.5

1
0.2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

5
100.0

 

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

28

 
 
Table 9-3
VOTE PROPENSITY
Base: Total Sample

Total

CAPITOL WEEKLY

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

TYPE OF
REGISTRATION
VOTER
DATE
ETHNICITY
GEOGRAPHY
============== ============================= ======================================= ===================================================
San
Other
PerNorth- FranSouthmanent
Up To Up To Up To
Black/
ern
cisco
ern
Central
Absen<1
5
10
20
>20 Latino/
White/
African
CaliBay Central
Los
CaliMoun- Central
TOTAL
tee
Other Year Years Years Years Years Hispanic Caucasian American Asian Other fornia Area
Coast Angeles fornia tain
Valley
------ ------- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -------- --------- -------- ----- ----- ------ ----- ------- ------- ------ ------- ------750
100.0

371
100.0

5/5 past elections

336
44.8

194
52.3

142
37.5

0

37
28.5

78
36.8

113
54.1

4/5 past elections

206
27.5

101
27.2

105
27.7

1
14.3

25
19.2

74
34.9

3/5 past elections

171
22.8

57
15.4

114
30.1

1
14.3

36
27.7

1/5 past elections

2
0.3

1
0.3

1
0.3

0

100% Not Having Had The
Chance

30
4.0

16
4.3

14
3.7

New Registrant

5
0.7

2
0.5

3
0.8

 

379
7
130
212
209
192
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

51
100.0

669
100.0

0

24
6
100.0 100.0

19
121
100.0 100.0

61
100.0

132
100.0

248
100.0

9
100.0

160
100.0

108
56.3

18
35.3

308
46.0

0

6
25.0

4
66.7

11
57.9

56
46.3

34
55.7

51
38.6

113
45.6

2
22.2

69
43.1

53
25.4

53
27.6

13
25.5

189
28.3

0

4
16.7

0

7
36.8

34
28.1

12
19.7

45
34.1

62
25.0

4
44.4

42
26.3

60
28.3

43
20.6

31
16.1

16
31.4

142
21.2

0

12
50.0

1
16.7

1
5.3

26
21.5

13
21.3

32
24.2

61
24.6

1
11.1

37
23.1

2
1.5

0

0

0

0

2
0.3

0

0

0

0

0

0

1
0.8

0

0

1
0.6

0

30
23.1

0

0

0

3
5.9

25
3.7

0

2
8.3

0

0

5
4.1

2
3.3

2
1.5

10
4.0

2
22.2

9
5.6

5
71.4

0

0

0

0

1
2.0

3
0.4

0

0

1
16.7

0

0

0

1
0.8

2
0.8

0

2
1.3

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

29

 
 
Table 10-1
TYPE OF VOTER
Base: Total Sample

Total

CAPITOL WEEKLY

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

GENDER
PARTY
AGE GROUP
GENDER/AGE
============= ============= =========================== ===========================
MEN
WOMEN
------------- ------------TOTAL
Male Female Rep
DTS
18-34 35-54 55-64
65+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -----750
100.0

375
100.0

375
100.0

685
100.0

65
100.0

74
100.0

232
100.0

215
100.0

229
100.0

156
100.0

219
100.0

150
100.0

225
100.0

Vote-By-Mail Voter

371
49.5

171
45.6

200
53.3

346
50.5

25
38.5

32
43.2

90
38.8

100
46.5

149
65.1

55
35.3

116
53.0

67
44.7

133
59.1

Election Day Voter

379
50.5

204
54.4

175
46.7

339
49.5

40
61.5

42
56.8

142
61.2

115
53.5

80
34.9

101
64.7

103
47.0

83
55.3

92
40.9

 

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

30

 
 
Table 10-2
TYPE OF VOTER
Base: Total Sample

Total

CAPITOL WEEKLY

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

PARTY/GENDER
PARTY/AGE
VOTE PROPENSITY
=========================== ========================================= =======================================================
GOP
DTS
GOP
DTS
DEM
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------100%
not
New
having RegisTOTAL
Men
Women
Men
Women 18-54
55+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
5/5
4/5
3/5
2/5
1/5
0/5
chance trant
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -----750
100.0

335
100.0

350
100.0

40
100.0

25
100.0

265
100.0

420
100.0

41
100.0

24
100.0

0

0

336
100.0

206
100.0

171
100.0

0

2
100.0

0

30
100.0

5
100.0

Vote-By-Mail Voter

371
49.5

158
47.2

188
53.7

13
32.5

12
48.0

107
40.4

239
56.9

15
36.6

10
41.7

0

0

194
57.7

101
49.0

57
33.3

0

1
50.0

0

16
53.3

2
40.0

Election Day Voter

379
50.5

177
52.8

162
46.3

27
67.5

13
52.0

158
59.6

181
43.1

26
63.4

14
58.3

0

0

142
42.3

105
51.0

114
66.7

0

1
50.0

0

14
46.7

3
60.0

 

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

31

 
 
Table 10-3
TYPE OF VOTER
Base: Total Sample

Total

CAPITOL WEEKLY

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

TYPE OF
REGISTRATION
VOTER
DATE
ETHNICITY
GEOGRAPHY
============== ============================= ======================================= ===================================================
San
Other
PerNorth- FranSouthmanent
Up To Up To Up To
Black/
ern
cisco
ern
Central
Absen<1
5
10
20
>20 Latino/
White/
African
CaliBay Central
Los
CaliMoun- Central
TOTAL
tee
Other Year Years Years Years Years Hispanic Caucasian American Asian Other fornia Area
Coast Angeles fornia tain
Valley
------ ------- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -------- --------- -------- ----- ----- ------ ----- ------- ------- ------ ------- ------750
100.0

371
100.0

Vote-By-Mail Voter

371
49.5

371
100.0

0

3
42.9

62
47.7

112
52.8

98
46.9

Election Day Voter

379
50.5

0

379
100.0

4
57.1

68
52.3

100
47.2

111
53.1

 

379
7
130
212
209
192
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

51
100.0

669
100.0

0

24
6
100.0 100.0

19
121
100.0 100.0

96
50.0

18
35.3

334
49.9

0

17
70.8

2
33.3

10
52.6

96
50.0

33
64.7

335
50.1

0

7
29.2

4
66.7

9
47.4

61
100.0

132
100.0

248
100.0

9
100.0

160
100.0

76
62.8

29
47.5

36
27.3

132
53.2

6
66.7

82
51.3

45
37.2

32
52.5

96
72.7

116
46.8

3
33.3

78
48.8

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

32

 
 
Table 11-1
REGISTRATION DATE
Base: Total Sample

Total

CAPITOL WEEKLY

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

GENDER
PARTY
AGE GROUP
GENDER/AGE
============= ============= =========================== ===========================
MEN
WOMEN
------------- ------------TOTAL
Male Female Rep
DTS
18-34 35-54 55-64
65+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -----750
100.0

375
100.0

375
100.0

685
100.0

65
100.0

74
100.0

232
100.0

215
100.0

229
100.0

156
100.0

219
100.0

150
100.0

225
100.0

7
0.9

5
1.3

2
0.5

6
0.9

1
1.5

5
6.8

0

1
0.5

1
0.4

4
2.6

1
0.5

1
0.7

1
0.4

Up To 5 Years

130
17.3

66
17.6

64
17.1

109
15.9

21
32.3

36
48.6

36
15.5

28
13.0

30
13.1

37
23.7

29
13.2

35
23.3

29
12.9

Up To 10 Years

212
28.3

105
28.0

107
28.5

191
27.9

21
32.3

24
32.4

85
36.6

57
26.5

46
20.1

58
37.2

47
21.5

51
34.0

56
24.9

Up To 20 Years

209
27.9

103
27.5

106
28.3

194
28.3

15
23.1

7
9.5

81
34.9

67
31.2

54
23.6

43
27.6

60
27.4

45
30.0

61
27.1

More Than 20 Years

192
25.6

96
25.6

96
25.6

185
27.0

7
10.8

2
2.7

30
12.9

62
28.8

98
42.8

14
9.0

82
37.4

18
12.0

78
34.7

Less Than A Year

 

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

33

 
 
Table 11-2
REGISTRATION DATE
Base: Total Sample

Total

CAPITOL WEEKLY

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

PARTY/GENDER
PARTY/AGE
VOTE PROPENSITY
=========================== ========================================= =======================================================
GOP
DTS
GOP
DTS
DEM
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------100%
not
New
having RegisTOTAL
Men
Women
Men
Women 18-54
55+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
5/5
4/5
3/5
2/5
1/5
0/5
chance trant
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -----750
100.0

335
100.0

350
100.0

40
100.0

25
100.0

265
100.0

420
100.0

41
100.0

24
100.0

0

0

336
100.0

206
100.0

171
100.0

0

2
100.0

0

30
100.0

5
100.0

7
0.9

4
1.2

2
0.6

1
2.5

0

4
1.5

2
0.5

1
2.4

0

0

0

0

1
0.5

1
0.6

0

0

0

0

5
100.0

Up To 5 Years

130
17.3

56
16.7

53
15.1

10
25.0

11
44.0

57
21.5

52
12.4

15
36.6

6
25.0

0

0

37
11.0

25
12.1

36
21.1

0

2
100.0

0

30
100.0

0

Up To 10 Years

212
28.3

89
26.6

102
29.1

16
40.0

5
20.0

94
35.5

97
23.1

15
36.6

6
25.0

0

0

78
23.2

74
35.9

60
35.1

0

0

0

0

0

Up To 20 Years

209
27.9

94
28.1

100
28.6

9
22.5

6
24.0

81
30.6

113
26.9

7
17.1

8
33.3

0

0

113
33.6

53
25.7

43
25.1

0

0

0

0

0

More Than 20 Years

192
25.6

92
27.5

93
26.6

4
10.0

3
12.0

29
10.9

156
37.1

3
7.3

4
16.7

0

0

108
32.1

53
25.7

31
18.1

0

0

0

0

0

Less Than A Year

 

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

34

 
 
Table 11-3
REGISTRATION DATE
Base: Total Sample

Total

CAPITOL WEEKLY

TYPE OF
REGISTRATION
VOTER
DATE
ETHNICITY
GEOGRAPHY
============== ============================= ======================================= ===================================================
San
Other
PerNorth- FranSouthmanent
Up To Up To Up To
Black/
ern
cisco
ern
Central
Absen<1
5
10
20
>20 Latino/
White/
African
CaliBay Central
Los
CaliMoun- Central
TOTAL
tee
Other Year Years Years Years Years Hispanic Caucasian American Asian Other fornia Area
Coast Angeles fornia tain
Valley
------ ------- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -------- --------- -------- ----- ----- ------ ----- ------- ------- ------ ------- ------750
100.0

371
100.0

7
0.9

3
0.8

Up To 5 Years

130
17.3

62
16.7

68
17.9

Up To 10 Years

212
28.3

112
30.2

Up To 20 Years

209
27.9

More Than 20 Years

192
25.6

Less Than A Year

 

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

379
7
130
212
209
192
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
4
7
1.1 100.0

51
100.0

669
100.0

0

24
6
100.0 100.0

19
121
100.0 100.0

61
100.0

132
100.0

248
100.0

9
100.0

160
100.0

0

0

0

0

2
3.9

4
0.6

0

0

1
16.7

0

0

0

1
0.8

3
1.2

0

3
1.9

0

130
100.0

0

0

0

10
19.6

115
17.2

0

5
20.8

0

0

15
12.4

11
18.0

19
14.4

46
18.5

3
33.3

36
22.5

100
26.4

0

0

212
100.0

0

0

17
33.3

184
27.5

0

9
37.5

2
33.3

4
21.1

31
25.6

14
23.0

39
29.5

72
29.0

2
22.2

50
31.3

98
26.4

111
29.3

0

0

0

209
100.0

0

18
35.3

183
27.4

0

7
29.2

1
16.7

9
47.4

39
32.2

16
26.2

30
22.7

70
28.2

3
33.3

42
26.3

96
25.9

96
25.3

0

0

0

0

192
100.0

4
7.8

183
27.4

0

3
12.5

2
33.3

6
31.6

36
29.8

20
32.8

43
32.6

57
23.0

1
11.1

29
18.1

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

35

 
 
Table 12-1
ETHNICITY
Base: Total Sample

Total

CAPITOL WEEKLY

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

GENDER
PARTY
AGE GROUP
GENDER/AGE
============= ============= =========================== ===========================
MEN
WOMEN
------------- ------------TOTAL
Male Female Rep
DTS
18-34 35-54 55-64
65+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -----750
100.0

375
100.0

375
100.0

685
100.0

65
100.0

74
100.0

232
100.0

215
100.0

229
100.0

156
100.0

219
100.0

150
100.0

225
100.0

Latino/Hispanic

51
6.8

26
6.9

25
6.7

47
6.9

4
6.2

9
12.2

24
10.3

10
4.7

8
3.5

17
10.9

9
4.1

16
10.7

9
4.0

White/Caucasian

669
89.2

332
88.5

337
89.9

615
89.8

54
83.1

56
75.7

200
86.2

194
90.2

219
95.6

129
82.7

203
92.7

127
84.7

210
93.3

Asian

24
3.2

13
3.5

11
2.9

17
2.5

7
10.8

8
10.8

6
2.6

9
4.2

1
0.4

8
5.1

5
2.3

6
4.0

5
2.2

Other

6
0.8

4
1.1

2
0.5

6
0.9

0

1
1.4

2
0.9

2
0.9

1
0.4

2
1.3

2
0.9

1
0.7

1
0.4

 

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

36

 
 
Table 12-2
ETHNICITY
Base: Total Sample

Total

CAPITOL WEEKLY

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

PARTY/GENDER
PARTY/AGE
VOTE PROPENSITY
=========================== ========================================= =======================================================
GOP
DTS
GOP
DTS
DEM
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------100%
not
New
having RegisTOTAL
Men
Women
Men
Women 18-54
55+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
5/5
4/5
3/5
2/5
1/5
0/5
chance trant
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -----750
100.0

335
100.0

350
100.0

40
100.0

25
100.0

265
100.0

420
100.0

41
100.0

24
100.0

0

0

336
100.0

206
100.0

171
100.0

0

2
100.0

0

30
100.0

5
100.0

Latino/Hispanic

51
6.8

22
6.6

25
7.1

4
10.0

0

29
10.9

18
4.3

4
9.8

0

0

0

18
5.4

13
6.3

16
9.4

0

0

0

3
10.0

1
20.0

White/Caucasian

669
89.2

299
89.3

316
90.3

33
82.5

21
84.0

225
84.9

390
92.9

31
75.6

23
95.8

0

0

308
91.7

189
91.7

142
83.0

0

2
100.0

0

25
83.3

3
60.0

Asian

24
3.2

10
3.0

7
2.0

3
7.5

4
16.0

8
3.0

9
2.1

6
14.6

1
4.2

0

0

6
1.8

4
1.9

12
7.0

0

0

0

2
6.7

0

Other

6
0.8

4
1.2

2
0.6

0

0

3
1.1

3
0.7

0

0

0

0

4
1.2

0

1
0.6

0

0

0

0

1
20.0

 

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

37

 
 
Table 12-3
ETHNICITY
Base: Total Sample

Total

CAPITOL WEEKLY

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

TYPE OF
REGISTRATION
VOTER
DATE
ETHNICITY
GEOGRAPHY
============== ============================= ======================================= ===================================================
San
Other
PerNorth- FranSouthmanent
Up To Up To Up To
Black/
ern
cisco
ern
Central
Absen<1
5
10
20
>20 Latino/
White/
African
CaliBay Central
Los
CaliMoun- Central
TOTAL
tee
Other Year Years Years Years Years Hispanic Caucasian American Asian Other fornia Area
Coast Angeles fornia tain
Valley
------ ------- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -------- --------- -------- ----- ----- ------ ----- ------- ------- ------ ------- ------750
100.0

371
100.0

Latino/Hispanic

51
6.8

18
4.9

33
8.7

2
28.6

10
7.7

17
8.0

18
8.6

White/Caucasian

669
89.2

334
90.0

335
88.4

4
57.1

115
88.5

184
86.8

Asian

24
3.2

17
4.6

7
1.8

0

5
3.8

Other

6
0.8

2
0.5

4
1.1

1
14.3

0

 

379
7
130
212
209
192
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

51
100.0

669
100.0

0

24
6
100.0 100.0

19
121
100.0 100.0

61
100.0

132
100.0

248
100.0

9
100.0

160
100.0

4
2.1

51
100.0

0

0

0

0

0

11
9.1

2
3.3

12
9.1

18
7.3

0

8
5.0

183
87.6

183
95.3

0

669
100.0

0

0

0

19
100.0

99
81.8

58
95.1

113
85.6

224
90.3

9
100.0

147
91.9

9
4.2

7
3.3

3
1.6

0

0

0

24
100.0

0

0

10
8.3

1
1.6

6
4.5

5
2.0

0

2
1.3

2
0.9

1
0.5

2
1.0

0

0

0

0

6
100.0

0

1
0.8

0

1
0.8

1
0.4

0

3
1.9

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

38

 
 
Table 13-1
GEOGRAPHY
Base: Total Sample

Total

CAPITOL WEEKLY

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

GENDER
PARTY
AGE GROUP
GENDER/AGE
============= ============= =========================== ===========================
MEN
WOMEN
------------- ------------TOTAL
Male Female Rep
DTS
18-34 35-54 55-64
65+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -----750
100.0

375
100.0

375
100.0

685
100.0

65
100.0

74
100.0

232
100.0

215
100.0

229
100.0

156
100.0

219
100.0

150
100.0

225
100.0

19
2.5

9
2.4

10
2.7

18
2.6

1
1.5

0

6
2.6

5
2.3

8
3.5

1
0.6

8
3.7

5
3.3

5
2.2

121
16.1

63
16.8

58
15.5

102
14.9

19
29.2

12
16.2

40
17.2

39
18.1

30
13.1

26
16.7

37
16.9

26
17.3

32
14.2

61
8.1

33
8.8

28
7.5

55
8.0

6
9.2

8
10.8

17
7.3

17
7.9

19
8.3

11
7.1

22
10.0

14
9.3

14
6.2

Los Angeles

132
17.6

60
16.0

72
19.2

128
18.7

4
6.2

14
18.9

31
13.4

50
23.3

37
16.2

26
16.7

34
15.5

19
12.7

53
23.6

Other Southern California

248
33.1

122
32.5

126
33.6

226
33.0

22
33.8

26
35.1

85
36.6

60
27.9

77
33.6

52
33.3

70
32.0

59
39.3

67
29.8

9
1.2

5
1.3

4
1.1

9
1.3

0

1
1.4

3
1.3

1
0.5

4
1.7

2
1.3

3
1.4

2
1.3

2
0.9

160
21.3

83
22.1

77
20.5

147
21.5

13
20.0

13
17.6

50
21.6

43
20.0

54
23.6

38
24.4

45
20.5

25
16.7

52
23.1

Northern Califirnia
San Francisco Bay Area
Central Coast

Central Mountain
Central Valley

 

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

39

 
 
Table 13-2
GEOGRAPHY
Base: Total Sample

Total

CAPITOL WEEKLY

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

PARTY/GENDER
PARTY/AGE
VOTE PROPENSITY
=========================== ========================================= =======================================================
GOP
DTS
GOP
DTS
DEM
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------100%
not
New
having RegisTOTAL
Men
Women
Men
Women 18-54
55+
18-54
55+
18-54
55+
5/5
4/5
3/5
2/5
1/5
0/5
chance trant
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -----750
100.0

335
100.0

350
100.0

40
100.0

25
100.0

265
100.0

420
100.0

41
100.0

24
100.0

0

0

336
100.0

206
100.0

171
100.0

0

2
100.0

0

30
100.0

5
100.0

19
2.5

9
2.7

9
2.6

0

1
4.0

6
2.3

12
2.9

0

1
4.2

0

0

11
3.3

7
3.4

1
0.6

0

0

0

0

0

121
16.1

51
15.2

51
14.6

12
30.0

7
28.0

36
13.6

66
15.7

16
39.0

3
12.5

0

0

56
16.7

34
16.5

26
15.2

0

0

0

5
16.7

0

61
8.1

28
8.4

27
7.7

5
12.5

1
4.0

21
7.9

34
8.1

4
9.8

2
8.3

0

0

34
10.1

12
5.8

13
7.6

0

0

0

2
6.7

0

Los Angeles

132
17.6

59
17.6

69
19.7

1
2.5

3
12.0

43
16.2

85
20.2

2
4.9

2
8.3

0

0

51
15.2

45
21.8

32
18.7

0

1
50.0

0

2
6.7

1
20.0

Other Southern California

248
33.1

107
31.9

119
34.0

15
37.5

7
28.0

100
37.7

126
30.0

11
26.8

11
45.8

0

0

113
33.6

62
30.1

61
35.7

0

0

0

10
33.3

2
40.0

9
1.2

5
1.5

4
1.1

0

0

4
1.5

5
1.2

0

0

0

0

2
0.6

4
1.9

1
0.6

0

0

0

2
6.7

0

160
21.3

76
22.7

71
20.3

7
17.5

6
24.0

55
20.8

92
21.9

8
19.5

5
20.8

0

0

69
20.5

42
20.4

37
21.6

0

1
50.0

0

9
30.0

2
40.0

Northern Califirnia
San Francisco Bay Area
Central Coast

Central Mountain
Central Valley

 

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

40

 
 
Table 13-3
GEOGRAPHY
Base: Total Sample

Total

CAPITOL WEEKLY

- PROBOLSKY RESEARCH CALIFORNIA POLL / MAY 2010

TYPE OF
REGISTRATION
VOTER
DATE
ETHNICITY
GEOGRAPHY
============== ============================= ======================================= ===================================================
San
Other
PerNorth- FranSouthmanent
Up To Up To Up To
Black/
ern
cisco
ern
Central
Absen<1
5
10
20
>20 Latino/
White/
African
CaliBay Central
Los
CaliMoun- Central
TOTAL
tee
Other Year Years Years Years Years Hispanic Caucasian American Asian Other fornia Area
Coast Angeles fornia tain
Valley
------ ------- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -------- --------- -------- ----- ----- ------ ----- ------- ------- ------ ------- ------750
100.0

371
100.0

19
2.5

10
2.7

9
2.4

0

0

4
1.9

9
4.3

121
16.1

76
20.5

45
11.9

0

15
11.5

31
14.6

61
8.1

29
7.8

32
8.4

0

11
8.5

Los Angeles

132
17.6

36
9.7

96
25.3

1
14.3

Other Southern California

248
33.1

132
35.6

116
30.6

9
1.2

6
1.6

160
21.3

82
22.1

Northern Califirnia
San Francisco Bay Area
Central Coast

Central Mountain
Central Valley

 

379
7
130
212
209
192
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

51
100.0

669
100.0

0

24
6
100.0 100.0

19
121
100.0 100.0

61
100.0

132
100.0

248
100.0

9
100.0

160
100.0

6
3.1

0

19
2.8

0

0

0

19
100.0

0

0

0

0

0

0

39
18.7

36
18.8

11
21.6

99
14.8

0

10
41.7

1
16.7

0

121
100.0

0

0

0

0

0

14
6.6

16
7.7

20
10.4

2
3.9

58
8.7

0

1
4.2

0

0

0

61
100.0

0

0

0

0

19
14.6

39
18.4

30
14.4

43
22.4

12
23.5

113
16.9

0

6
25.0

1
16.7

0

0

0

132
100.0

0

0

0

3
42.9

46
35.4

72
34.0

70
33.5

57
29.7

18
35.3

224
33.5

0

5
20.8

1
16.7

0

0

0

0

248
100.0

0

0

3
0.8

0

3
2.3

2
0.9

3
1.4

1
0.5

0

9
1.3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

9
100.0

0

78
20.6

3
42.9

36
27.7

50
23.6

42
20.1

29
15.1

8
15.7

147
22.0

0

2
8.3

3
50.0

0

0

0

0

0

0

160
100.0

Probolsky Research LLC
23276 S. Pointe Drive Suite 206 Laguna Hills CA 92653 USA
Main Office: (949) 855 6400 Sacramento: (916) 258 4040 Washington DC: (202) 559 0270
www.probolskyresearch.com

41

Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful