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Sustainability of Water Quality and Ecology 34 (2014) 5566

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Sustainability of Water Quality and Ecology


journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/swaqe

The effects of dams in rivers on N and P export to the coastal


waters in Indonesia in the future
Djoko Suwarno a,b,, Ansje Lhr a,1, Carolien Kroeze a,c,1,2, Budi Widianarko b,3,
Maryna Strokal c,2
a

Department of Science, Faculty of Management, Science & Technology, Open University, Valkenburgerweg 177, Heerlen, The Netherlands
Engineering Faculty, Soegijapranata Catholic University, Jl. Pawiyatan Luhur IV/1 Bendan Duwur, Semarang 50234, Central Java, Indonesia
c
Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
b

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history:
Received 19 January 2014
Received in revised form 26 November 2014
Accepted 27 November 2014
Available online 23 December 2014
Keywords:
Nitrogen
Phosphorus
Indonesia
Dams
Coastal waters

a b s t r a c t
We used Global NEWS to analyze the effects of dams in large rivers on nitrogen (N) and
phosphorus (P) inputs to the coastal waters of Indonesia for the period 19702050. We
model N and P export by rivers, taking into account nutrient retention on land, during river
transport and in dammed reservoirs. Our results indicate that N and P export by rivers to
coastal seas may increase over time. In the past the N and P inputs to coastal waters of
Indonesia were low and have increased relatively fast since 1970 as a result of human
activities. For the coming decades we calculate that P inputs to coastal waters in Indonesia
may double while N inputs may increase by up to 20%. Damming may slow down these
increases to some extent. Our study illustrates that it is important in river nutrient export
models to appropriately account for nutrient retention in dam waters.
2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
In general dams affect nutrient export by rivers by increasing nutrient retention rates. Rivers are natural sources of nutrients such as nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in coastal seas. Dams tend to increase the water residence time, as well as the
retention of N and P in rivers (Syvitski et al., 2005). Sedimentation of P and denitrication of N in the dammed reservoirs tend
to reduce the N and P export to coastal seas (Syvitski et al., 2005). The global river export of suspended solids is currently
lower than in pre-anthropocene times (Syvitski et al., 2005), mainly because of damming, and wastewater regulation
(Louise, 2008).
Human activities on land often lead to increase N and P export by rivers. In particular agriculture and human waste tends
to increase nutrient levels in rivers. As a result, coastal eutrophication is a worldwide problem (Orderud and Vogt, 2010;
Tysmans et al., 2013). Damming of rivers, on the other hand, may slow down this increase to some extent. Slowing down
the increase in nutrient export to coastal waters may therefore have a positive effect on the water quality (Finger et al.,
2007, 2006; McCartney, 2009).
Corresponding author at: Department of Science, Faculty of Management, Science & Technology, Open University, Valkenburgerweg 177, Heerlen, The
Netherlands. Tel.: +31 (0)45 576 2877, +62 81 325 787 909; fax: +31 (0)45 576 2155, +62 (0)24 8416052.
E-mail addresses: dj.suwarno@gmail.com (D. Suwarno), ansje.lohr@ou.nl (A. Lhr), carolien.kroeze@ou.nl (C. Kroeze), widianarko@unika.ac.id
(B. Widianarko), strokal84@mail.ru (M. Strokal).
1
Tel.: +31 (0)45 576 2877; fax: +31 (0)45 576 2155.
2
Tel.: +31 317 484812; fax: +31 317 419000.
3
Tel.: +62 (0)24 8441555; fax: +62 (0)24 8415429/8445265.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.swaqe.2014.11.005
2212-6139/ 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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D. Suwarno et al. / Sustainability of Water Quality and Ecology 34 (2014) 5566

In this study we focus on rivers in Indonesia. Currently, there are about 284 dams in rivers in Indonesia (Aris et al., 2012)
of which about 100 are large dams (Water Resources Research Center, 1995). Most dams are located on Java, but there are
also dams in larger rivers on Sumatra, Sulawesi, Bali and Nusa Tenggara (Munthe et al., 2009; Damayanti, 2012). These dams
were mainly built for the purpose of irrigation. Fish rearing in oating net cages (FNC) is common in the dammed Indonesian
reservoirs and may inuence nutrient export as well (Manatunge et al., 2008). The number of cages increased rapidly during
the 1990s in Saguling and Cirata dams (Adiwilaga, 1999).
Most of the rivers in Indonesia are polluted by human activities including agriculture, waste disposal and industry (Garno,
2001). 85% of the water used from the reservoirs in the Citarum River for instance, with three dams is for irrigation and the
rest for domestic and industrial water purposes. Like many other rivers in Indonesia, the Citarum transports increased levels
of nutrients (N and P) from the land to coastal waters (Miyazato and Khan, 2004). Some studies indicate that the pollution in
the Citarum River water has locally reached levels that are harmful to the aquatic ecosystem, especially in the dry season
(Yoga et al., 2006). Increased nutrient levels cause eutrophication and the growth of toxic cyanobacteria in the reservoirs
(Hart et al., 2002). Agriculture and human waste are the most important sources of increased N and P in the river water
(Priyambada et al., 2008). However, also sheries in the dammed reservoirs may have consequences for nutrient levels in
rivers, as a result of excess sh feed or fecal waste (Garno, 2001; Beveridge, 1996). For every ton of sh 1213 kg N and
8590 kg P is added to dam waters in Indonesia (Ryding and Rast, 1989). This is one of the reasons why the water quality
of the Citarum River is locally poor (Garno, 2000).
In this study we focus on the role of dams in river export of N and P to coastal waters in Indonesia. In an earlier study
(Suwarno et al., 2013) we analyzed the performance of the Global NEWS-2 (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds) model for
Indonesian rivers. We concluded that the model performs reasonably well, but that sewage and dams are not well represented. Therefore, we improved the modeling of sewage inputs to rivers in the model (Suwarno et al., 2014). In this study,
we want to evaluate and improve the modeling of dams in the Global NEWS-2 model. We thus use the Global NEWS-2 model
as a starting point (Mayorga et al., 2010; Seitzinger et al., 2010). This model can be used to analyze past and future trends in
the export of nutrients to coastal seas in a spatially explicit way.
The purpose of this study is, therefore, to explore the role of dams in river export of nutrient by 19 selected Indonesian
rivers. To this end, we evaluate the Global NEWS-2 approach on the basis of local information and with the improved model
we analyze the role of dams in Indonesian rivers, including sh cultivation in the dammed reservoirs.
This study can help formulate the steps to calculate the export of nutrients after damming in order to determine the effect
on coastal pollution.

2. Material and methods


2.1. Methods
In the section to come, we describe how we analyze the effects of damming on coastal water pollution in Indonesia. Our
research consists of three steps:
Step 1: Analyzing past damming of rivers in Indonesia
First, past trends in damming of Indonesian rivers are analyzed. To this end, we summarize local information about the
size and age of dams.
Step 2: Modeling nutrient export by dammed rivers
Second, we describe a model for nutrient export by dammed rivers. To this end, we evaluate how damming is quantied
in the Global NEWS-2 model (Mayorga et al., 2010).
In the Global NEWS-2 model, some rivers include dams while others do not. The Global NEWS-2 model was developed to
analyze global environmental problems, and was not for Indonesia specically. The model only included dams for three
Indonesian rivers: Solo, Citarum, and Serang. In reality, however, many rivers have dams. An update of the model is therefore
needed.
We evaluate model equations and parameter values that are relevant for damming. Global NEWS-2 includes a number of
dam-related parameters (Mayorga et al., 2010). We focus in particular on the values of V (dam volume) and h (dam depth), as
well as on the actual river discharge (Qact), and the dam retention fractions for dissolved inorganic N and P (DDIN and DDIP).
We will evaluate to what extent local sources of information are available to update model parameters for Indonesian rivers.
In addition, we add sheries in dammed reservoirs as a point source of nutrients in the river.
Step 3: Analyzing future trends in nutrient export by rivers
Finally, the improved model will be used to analyze future trends in nutrient export by Indonesian rivers. Our scenarios
are updates of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) scenarios that describe future environmental developments
up to the year 2050 (Alcamo et al., 2005). These scenarios have been analyzed by the Global NEWS-2 model, in order to
investigate global trends in nutrient export by world rivers for the years 2030 and 2050 (Seitzinger et al., 2010;
Bouwman et al., 2009; Fekete et al., 2010; Van Drecht et al., 2009). Here, we use and modify these scenario results, and
analyze them in detail for Indonesia, assuming that the number of dams will remain at the current level. In reality, the
number of dams may increase in the future, so our scenarios are based on conservative assumptions.

D. Suwarno et al. / Sustainability of Water Quality and Ecology 34 (2014) 5566

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2.2. Dams in Indonesian rivers in the past


We identied 15 large dams in nine rivers in Indonesia (Table 1). These nine rivers are among the 19 main rivers in Indonesia that we studied earlier (Suwarno et al., 2013) and (Suwarno et al., 2014), and include the Barito, Mahakam, Brantas,
Tulang-bawang, Solo, Sadang, Citarum, Serang and Serayu. Rivers without dams include Mendawai/Sumpit, Negara, Seruyan,
Baai, Konaweha/Sampara, Poso, Balikpapan, Karama, Arut, and the Cimanuk rivers. Large dams are typically built in rivers
with high discharges, frequent oods in the rainy season and drought in the dry season. Floods and droughts could lead
to losses of material. The three dams that were included in the original Global NEWS-2 model only consider dams in the Solo,
Citarum and Serang.
2.3. Modeling nutrient export by dammed rivers
2.3.1. Model description
The Global NEWS-2 model uses an integrated approach that links socio-economic, nutrition and management factors of
the river. This model is a global model that is intended to analyze trends in coastal water pollution for relatively large
regions. Our model is a revision and local implementation of the Global NEWS-2 model. We adapted the Global NEWS equations and parameters to the local conditions in Indonesia.
Mayorga et al. (2010) describe in detail how the river export N and P to coastal seas is modeled in the original Global
NEWS-2 model. Here, we summarize the approach. The model distinguishes between natural and anthropogenic processes
affecting nutrients in the river (Meybeck and Vrsmarty, 2005; Seitzinger et al., 2006, 2005). Nutrient retention within the
river basin is modeled as retention on land, retention during river transport, and extraction of water use from dammed reservoirs for irrigation and other consumptive water use. Sources of nutrients can be both point sources and diffuse sources.
Point sources include human waste that is discharged to rivers through sewage systems (Van Drecht et al., 2009, 2003). The
diffuse sources can be both natural (e.g. atmospheric N deposition on non-agricultural areas) and anthropogenic (e.g. animal
manure excretion, synthetic fertilizer use) (Bouwman et al., 2009, 2005). The model considers river export of dissolved inorganic N and P (DIN and DIP) and dissolved organic N and P (DON and DOP), as well as particulate N and P.
The Global NEWS-2 model has been implemented for the period 19702050. Global scale analyses (Seitzinger et al., 2010)
indicate that in many world regions coastal eutrophication may increase in the future. This also holds for continental-scale
analyses (Bouwman et al., 2005; Dumont et al., 2005; Yasin et al., 2010; Van der Struijk and Kroeze, 2010, Ludwig et al.,
2009; Thieu et al., 2010), as well as for analyses of specic watersheds (Harrison et al., 2009; Yan et al., 2010). The model
was also used for analyses of autotrophy and heterotrophy of river basins (Billen et al., 2009), and changes in nutrient ratios
over time and their implications for coastal ecosystems (Garnier et al., 2010).
Global NEWS-2 has been validated at the global scale (Mayorga et al., 2010; Seitzinger et al., 2010; Thieu et al., 2010),
continental scale (Yasin et al., 2010; Van der Struijk and Kroeze, 2010) and local scale (Qu and Kroeze, 2010), indicating that
the model can be widely applied. We validated the model for Indonesian rivers (Suwarno et al., 2013) indicating that the
model results are in reasonable agreement with local measurements.
The scenarios that have been implemented in Global NEWS-2 for the future were based on the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment (MEA) Alcamo et al., 2005. This requires the development of spatially explicit model inputs for diffuse nutrient
inputs from agricultural and natural ecosystems (Bouwman et al., 2009), for point sources sewage (Van Drecht et al., 2009),
and hydrology (Fekete et al., 2010). These model inputs are consistent with the social, economic policy and ecological
assumptions in the MEA scenarios (Mayorga et al., 2010). Four MEA scenarios exist: Adapting Mosaic (AM), Global Orchestration (GO), Order from Strength (OS), and Technogarden (TG). The scenarios differ in two ways: they either assume a reactive or proactive approach to the environment, and they assume either regionalization or globalization in socio-economic
development. The AM scenario describes a regionalized world with a proactive approach towards environmental management. The GO scenario describes a globalized world with a reactive approach towards environmental management. The
OS scenario assumes a regionalized world and a reactive approach towards environmental management. The TG scenario
is a globalized scenario assuming proactive environmental management (Alcamo et al., 2005).
We adapted the Global NEWS approach for our analysis of Indonesian rivers. Table 2 summarizes the equations used to
calculate nutrient export from land to sea in this study. Eq. (1) is used to calculate river export of dissolved nutrients forms as
a function of nutrient inputs to the rivers from point (RSpntF) and diffuse (RSdifF) sources, and nutrient retentions within the
river system (FErivF). These nutrient inputs to rivers from point sources are described in Eq. (2), and diffuse sources in Eqs.
(35). Dams are affecting nutrient export by rivers because of increased nutrient and sediment retention behind the dams.
This is reected by the dam retention factor DF,b in Eq. (9). We account for sh cultivation in dammed reservoirs, which may
affect the nutrient content of the water because of excess sh feed or fecal waste.
We improved the model and the model parameters (Table 3) based on local studies in the following way:
(a) Local data for dams: For dams that are included in Global NEWS-2, we used updated values of V (dam volume) and h
(depth of the dam) to calculate the fraction (DsR) of retention for dissolved inorganic N and P (DDIN and DDIP)
(Table 1).
(b) Missing dams included: We added missing dams in the equations, so that the model now includes nine dammed rivers
(instead of three in Global NEWS-2), with in total 15 dams in the years 1970, 2000, 2030 and 2050 (Table 1).

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D. Suwarno et al. / Sustainability of Water Quality and Ecology 34 (2014) 5566

Table 1
Main characteristics of nine rivers in Indonesia and their 15 large dams.*
River name, Basin Area (BA) and River
Length (L)

Dam characteristics
Name

Height (H), Capacity (C), Surface Area (SA) and


Catchment Area (CA)

Year

Main function

Barito
BA = 74,068 km2
L = 900 km

Riam Kanan

H = 60 m
C = 1200  106 m3
SA = 9200 ha

1972

Multi-functional

Mahakam
BA = 77,700 km2
L = 860 km

Manggar

H = 14 m
C = 16  106 m3

2003

Irrigation, raw water supply

Brantasa
BA = 18,353 km2
L = 320 km

Selorejo

H = 49 m
C = 62  106 m3
SA = 400 ha
CA = 236 km2
H = 97.5 m
C = 343  106 m3
SA = 1500 ha
CA = 2050  km2
H = 74 m
C = 36  106 m3
SA = 260 ha
CA = 160 km2
H = 46 m
C = 24  106 m3
SA = 380 ha
CA = 2890 km2

1972

Multi-function

1973

Multi-function

1977

Irrigation, raw water supply

1977

Multi-function

Sutami

Lahor

Wlingi

Tulang-bawangb
BA = 15,383 km2

Way Rarem

H = 59 m
C = 56  106 m3
SA = 1400 ha

1982

Irrigation, Flood control

Solo
BA = 15,307 km2
L = 600 km

Wonogiri

H = 40 m
C = 556  106 m3
SA = 8800 ha
CA = 73,600 km2
H = 32 m
C = 730  103 m3
CA = 82 km2

1982

Multi-function

1983

Irrigation

Song Putri

Sadangc
BA = 12,332 km2

Kalola

H = 34 m
C = 70  106 m3

1997

Irrigation

Citarum
BA = 9198 km2

Juanda/
Jatiluhur

H = 105 m
C = 2556  106 m3
SA = 83 km2
CA = 2283 km2
H = 99 m
C = 982  106 m3
SA = 53.40 km2
CA = 2283 km2
H = 125 m
C = 2165  106 m3
SA = 62 km2
CA = 4119 km2

1963

Multi-function

1986

Hydro electric power and


Flood control

1988

Hydro electric power and


Flood control

L = 225 km
Saguling

Cirata

*
a
b
c

Serangd
BA = 9192 km2
L = 28 km

Sermo

H = 52.6 m
C = 25  106 m3
CA = 22 km2

1996

Irrigation

Serayu
BA = 9185 km2
L = 176 km

Mrica

H = 110 m
C = 47  106 m3
SA = 1500 ha
CA = 1022 km2

1989

Hydro electric power, Flood


control

Source: Directorate General of Water Resources, Department of Public Works.


ID number 696 in Global NEWS-2.
ID number 804 in Global NEWS-2.
ID number 948 in Global NEWS-2.

D. Suwarno et al. / Sustainability of Water Quality and Ecology 34 (2014) 5566

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Table 2
Summary of the calculation of nutrient inputs to rivers and to coastal waters as used in this study (TS). The equations are based on Global NEWS-2 (GN)
approach (Alcamo et al., 2005).
No.

Equations for dissolved N and P

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
(13)
(14)
(15)
(16)

YldF,m = (RSpntF + RSdifF) * FErivF


RSpntF = (EEsw + EEsh * MC) * FEpntF
RSdifF = (RSdifnat,E + RSdifant,E) * FEwsF
RSdifDIN = RSdifnat,DIN + RSdifant,DIN = (TnatDIN * FEwsnat,DIN) + (TantDIN * FEwsDIN)
RSdifDIP;DON;DOP = RSdifnat,F + RSdifant,F = (TnatF + TantF) * FEwsF
EEsh = (EEsh,i * i)/A
FErivF = 1 LF,b) * (1 DF,b) * (1 FQrem,b)
LF,b = c * ln(A) d (Dumont et al., 2005) for DIN
DF,b = (1/Qact,m) * R(Qact,i * DF,i)
DDIP,i = 0.85 * [1 exp ( 0.0807 * 365 * DsR,i)]
DDIN,i = 0.8845 * (hi/DsR,i) 0.3677
DsR,i = Vi/Qact,i
P
FQrem,b = Qrem,i/Qnat,m
Qrem,i = Qnat,m * FQrem,i
P
FQrem,i = (FQrem,b,GN * Vi)/ i = 1 Vi
Qact,i 1 = Qact,i * (1 FQrem,i 1)

Variables and parameters (their units) for dissolved N and P:


YldF,m = the river export of each dissolved nutrient form (F: DIN, DIP, DON, DOP, kg km 2 y 1) that is exported at the river mouth (m).
RSpntF = the annual export of dissolved nutrient form (F: DIN, DIP, DON, DOP, kg km 2 y 1) from point sources (sewage: human waste for N and P,
detergents for P) to surface waters.
RSdifF = the annual export of dissolved nutrient form (F: DIN, DIP, DON, DOP, kg km 2 y 1) from the diffuse sources (natural and anthropogenic) to surface
waters.
FErivF = the fraction (01) of nutrient form (F: DIN, DIP, DON, DOP) that is exported at the river mouth.
EEsw = emissions of element (E: N, P, kg km 2 y 1) to surface water from sewage sources (human waste for N and P, detergents for P).
EEsh = emissions of element (E: N, P, kg km 2 y 1) to all reservoir in the basin (Loadsh/A).
FEpntF = the fraction (01) of element (N, P) emitted to surface waters as a form (F: DIN, DIP, DON, DOP).
RSdifnat,E = net total element (E: N, P) inputs from diffuse sources into watershed (land) over natural areas (values are taken from Global NEWS-2 database,
kg km 2 y 1).
RSdifant,E = net total element (E: N, P) inputs from diffuse source into watershed (land) over agricultural areas (values are taken from Global NEWS-2
database, kg km 2 y 1).
EEsh = net total element (E: N, P) inputs to all reservoir in the basin (values are from local data, kg y 1).
EEsh,i = net total element emitted to the reservoir i as a form (E: N and P, kg y 1).
i = number of dams.
MC = multiplier for change between 1970, 2000 and 2030, 2050 (see Table 3).
FEwsF = the function (01) of nutrient form (F: DIN, DIP, DON, DOP) that is exported from watersheds (covering agricultural and natural land) to surface
waters, calculated based on mean annual water runoff from land to streams (values are from Global NEWS-2 database). For DIN, this fraction is calculate for
natural areas (FEwsnat,DIN).
TnatF = net total diffuse inputs of nutrient form (F: DIN, DIP, DON, DOP) to watersheds from natural area (values are from Global NEWS-2 database,
kg km 2 y 1).
TantF = net total diffuse inputs of nutrient form (F: DIN, DIP, DON, DOP) to watersheds from agricultural area (values are from Global NEWS-2 database,
kg km 2 y 1).
LF,b = the retention fraction (01) of nutrient form (only for DIN) along the river network of the basin (b), calculated as a function of the basin area (A), where
c is 0.0605 and d is 0.0443.
A = Basin areas (km2).
DF,b = the retention fractions (01) of nutrient form (F: only for DIN, DIP) in dammed reservoirs of the whole river basin (b). DDIP = functionally constrained
to the range 00.85, DDIN = functionally constrained to the range 00.965.
FQrem,b = the consumptive water removal fraction (01) for the river basin (b), generic for dissolved nutrient forms (values are calculated based on updated
information for dams).
Qact,m = total water discharge at the river mouth (m) after water is removed for consumption purposes (values are from Global NEWS-2 database, km3 y 1).
Qact,i = water discharge for dammed reservoir i after water removal consumption (calculated, see formulas, km3 y 1).
DF,i = the retention fractions (01) of nutrient form (DIN, DIP, zero for DON and DOP) in dammed reservoir i (calculated using updated information on a
number of reservoirs and their characteristics).
DsR,i = mean annual change in river water residence (years) time over unimpouded conditions for each (i) dammed reservoir (calculated using updated
information on a number of reservoirs and their characteristics).
hi = mean reservoir depth of dam i (meters) (values from local data).
Vi = the effective volume of dam i (km3) (values from local data).
Qrem,i = the amount of water that is taken for consumption purposes in dammed reservoir i (calculated, see formulas, km3 y 1).
Qnat,m = total water discharge at the river mouth (m) before water removal for consumption (values are from Global NEWS-2 database, km3 y 1).
FQrem,i = the fraction (01) of water removal for consumption purposes in dammed reservoir i (calculated, see formulas).
FQrem,b.GN = the fraction (01) of water removal for consumption of the basin (b) (from Global NEWS-2 database).

(c) Alternative equations for sh cultivation: We added sheries in oating net cages (FNC) as a point source of nutrients
in the model. The underlying assumptions in the original Global NEWS-2 model are that dams are used for power generation and irrigation. In Indonesia, however, dams having other functions and sh rearing are common in dammed
reservoirs. We therefore modied the equations of Mayorga et al. (2010) by adding the annual import of nutrients
from the sh rearing in the dam (sh feed + sh fecal waste) (see Table 2, Eqs. (2 and 6)).

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D. Suwarno et al. / Sustainability of Water Quality and Ecology 34 (2014) 5566

Table 3
Summary of model variables and the assumptions that differ from the original Global NEWS-2 model. Descriptions of the variables are given in Table 2.

Variable

Description

Vi (km3)
Hi (m)
DsR (fraction)
EEsh (kg km 2 y 1)
FEwsF
LDIN (fraction)
DDIN,b (fraction)
DDIP,b (fraction)
DDIN,i (fraction)
DDIP,i (fraction)
FErivF (fraction)
FQrem,b (fraction)
FQrem,i (fraction)
YldF (kg km 2 y 1)
LoadF (Gg y 1)
Qact,i 1 (km y 1)
Qrem,i (km3 y 1)
MC*

Updated for dams that are included in Global NEWS-2, and added for dams that are not in Global NEWS-2 (see Table 1)

Re-calculated based on revised input parameters


Note:
b = basin
i = number of dams

1970 = 0.35
2000 = 1
2030: AM = 1.1 GO = 1.3 OS = 1.2 TG = 1.4
2050: AM = 1.2 GO = 1.5 OS = 1.3 TG = 1.7

Applied to sheries in reservoirs (in 2000 as the basis for the future) in the Global Orchestration scenario to account for increase over time.

Table 2 presents the revised Global NEWS model for dams, to which we refer as TS (This Study). We also analyze model
results in which we combine the TS model with an improved sewage model that we published earlier (Suwarno et al., 2014).
We refer to this as the TS+ results, that are calculated by a version of the model including both the improved dam equations
(presented in Table 2) and the revised sewage equations (presented in Suwarno et al. 2014). In short, the improved sewage
calculations include improved equations for sewage N and P inputs to rivers. Indeed our manuscript did not include a full
description of the TS and TS+ models. In Table 2, we describe explicitly and in detail the improved TS model, because that
is what we newly developed for this article. The TS+ model has been published elsewhere (Suwarno et al. 2014).

2.4. Example: Citarum River


The Citarum River has a water discharge of 13 billion m3 y 1. There are three large dams in the river: the Jatiluhur, Saguling and Cirata dams (Table 1). The Jatiluhur dam was the rst dam and was built between 1957 and 1962. The dam became
operational in 1963. Fifteen years later the Saguling dam was completed (1986), followed by the Cirata dam (1988). These
dams are located in West Java, Indonesia. These three dams were included in the original Global NEWS-2 model.
The dams nowadays serve several purposes. The Saguling dam was originally built for hydropower in Java, but is currently
also used for irrigation, recreation, and sh farming (Komarawidjaya, 2008; Hardjamulia et al., 1992). As a result of the damming, the number of sh farms increased rapidly in the Citarum River. The reservoir behind the Jatiluhur dam has been used
for sh cultivation in oating nets since 1974.
We take the Citarum River as an example to illustrate how we calculate N and P export by rivers to coastal waters using
the equations listed in Table 2. The Global NEWS-2 model also accounts for nutrient retention by dams in the Citarum. However, Global NEWS-2 does not specify the three dams individually. We take the Global Orchestration scenario for 2030 as an
example, in line with our earlier research (Suwarno et al., 2014). The parameters listed in Table 3 are from local information,
and used to calculate the effect of the dams on river export of dissolved nutrients to coastal waters (see Table 2). We use the
data for N and P inputs for sheries in the Saguling reservoir for the year 2000 (Miyazato and Khan, 2004) to estimate inputs
in the past (1970) and future (2030 and 2050) (Table 3).
The model calculates river export of nutrients as a function of human activities on land, hydrology and basin characteristics. Retention of nutrients on land and sea is accounted for. In this case, P includes, for instance, sedimentation of P in
aquatic systems. N denitrication is the most important process in this respect. In many river basins, a considerable part
of the N is denitried by bacteria to gaseous forms of N, and this N will never reach the coastal seas. Denitrication can take
place both on land and in rivers.
In this example, we calculate total dissolved N and P (TDN and TDP) export by the Citarum River using the equations in
Table 2, and compare the results to the original Global NEWS-2 value for the GO scenario in 2030 (Table 4). The results indicate that TDN export as calculated by our updated model is 3% lower than the original Global NEWS-2 value. For TDP the
difference is 20%. These differences are small for N because the Global NEWS-2 model accounts for dams in the Citarum
River, and based on our comparison, we can conclude that the Global NEWS-2 model parameters are comparable to our local

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D. Suwarno et al. / Sustainability of Water Quality and Ecology 34 (2014) 5566


Table 4
Calculated export (yield, Yld) of total dissolved N and P (TDN and TDP) by the Citarum River in 2030 (scenario GO) in
this study (TS) compared to the original Global NEWS-2 values (GN). In this study we use updated parameter values for
the Saguling, Cirata and Jatiluhur dams located in the Citarum River. See Table 2 for a description of the parameters.
Parameters
3

1 a

Qact,i (km y )
Vi (km3)a
hi (m)a
DsR,i (year)b
DDIP,i (fraction, 01)b
DDIN,i (fraction, 01)b
2
EN
y 1)c
sh,i (kg km
EPsh,i (kg km 2 y 1)c
YldF TS (kg km 2 y 1)d
YldF GN (kg km 2 y 1)e

Saguling

Cirata

Jatiluhur

5.05
0.98
99
0.19
0.85
0.09
30,000/Area = 3.26
4000/Area = 0.43
TDN = 1459 & TDP = 78f
TDN = 1539 & TDP = 78f

4.40
0.97
125
0.22
0.85
0.09

5.71
2.56
105
0.48
0.85
0.12

Resources Research and Development Center: Lake and Dam Management in Indonesia.
Values for the variables were calculated using formulas in Table 2.
c
1
Source: Rounded from Garno (Beveridge, 1996). In the rest of this paper we use an average EN
/
sh,i = 10,000 kg y
basin area and EPsh,i = 1300 kg y 1/basin area for all reservoirs.
d
This Study (see Table 2).
e
Original Global NEWS-2 values (Garno, 2001).
f
TDN includes dissolved inorganic and dissolved organic N, TDP includes dissolved inorganic and dissolved
organic P.
b

values. The differences between Global NEWS-2 results and our updated model are larger for rivers where Global NEWS-2
ignores existing dams as will be shown below.
What we add to the Global NEWS-2 calculations for the Citarum is an estimate of the relative contribution of the individual dams to the total nutrient retention. Our calculations indicate that the Jatiluhur dam is the most important, because
it is the largest of the three dams. Our calculations also indicate that adding sheries to the calculations does not have a large
impact on the calculated N and P yields at the river mouth.
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Nutrient export by nine dammed rivers in Indonesia
We modeled N and P export by Indonesian rivers for the period 19702050 (following Table 2), and compared our results
to estimates following the original Global NEWS-2 approach (Mayorga et al., 2010). Tables 5a and 5b and Figs. 1a, 1b, 2a2d
summarize the results for the 9 rivers that have dams in Indonesia. These 9 rivers are among the rivers that we analyzed in
an earlier study of river export of N and P in Indonesia (Suwarno et al., 2014). Tables 5a and 5b present a comparison
between the Global NEWS-2 (GN, including 3 dammed rivers) outcomes and this study (TS, including 15 dams) in 1970
for the number of dams, the fraction of nutrient inputs to rivers that is exported to coastal seas (FErivF), nutrient inputs
to rivers from point sources (RSpntF) and nutrient export by rivers to coastal waters (YldF).
The calculated DIN and DIP yields in this study (TS) are generally lower than in the original Global NEWS calculations
(GN) (see Tables 5a and 5b). These differences can be explained by the number of dams which is larger in our study than
in the original Global NEWS-2. This increases retention of N and P in the river. As a result, the fraction of nutrients entering
the river that is exported to coastal seas (FErivF) in TS is smaller than in GN so that the TDN and TDP exported by rivers is
reduced. The Mahakam and Serang rivers have dams that are also included in the original Global NEWS-2 model. As a result,
we do not calculate lower river export of these two rivers. For DIP, we also calculated that river export is lower than Global
NEWS-2. For DON and DOP, the differences are negligible, indicating that the model equations for these forms of N and P are
not so sensitive to parameters for dams. The differences are also small for the Mahakam and the Serang. This is because the
dams in these rivers are relatively small (Table 1).
Cultivation of sh in dam waters provide additional nutrient inputs into the dammed reservoirs as point sources (see
Tables 5a and 5b). In GN there are no point sources of DIN and DIP, because sh farming is not considered in GN. In TS
we added sh farming, so that the waters receive additional nutrient inputs from this source. We calculate highest nutrient
inputs from shing farming activities for the Citarum River, i.e. DIN = 0.55 kg km 2 y 1 and DIP = 0.15 kg km 2 y 1.
Figs. 1a, 1b, 2a2d present the calculated N and P exports by the nine rivers to the coastal waters of Indonesia, according
to the original Global NEWS-2 model (GN), and according to this study (referred to as TS and TS+, in which TS is short for This
Study). The TS results are calculated following Table 2 as shown in Tables 5a and 5b and differ from GN only with respect to
the calculations associated with dams. The TS+ results also use the improved sewage calculations as described in Suwarno
et al. (2014).
Our results indicate that the DIN load in 2000 was considerably higher than in 1970 in all cases (Fig. 1a). For DIP, we calculate small decreases in loads between 1970 and 2000 for TS, and an increase for TS+ (Fig. 1b). This is in line with our earlier
analyses (Suwarno et al., 2013, 2014).

62

D. Suwarno et al. / Sustainability of Water Quality and Ecology 34 (2014) 5566

Table 5a
Comparison of calculations for DIN in this study (TS) and the original Global NEWS-2 (GN) approach. The table presents the number of dams considered, the
nutrient export fraction for DIN (FErivDIN) (fraction, 01), dam retention for DIN (DDIN), nutrient inputs to the rivers (RSdifDIN in kg km 2 y 1) and river export of
DIN to the coastal waters (YldDIN in kg km 2 y 1) for nine rivers in 1970. See Table 2 for explanations of model parameters and formulas used for calculations.
River

Barito
Mahakam
Brantas
Tulangbawang
Solo
Sadang
Citarum
Serang
Serayu
*

Number of dams

FErivDIN

Dam retention (DDIN,b)

RSpntDIN

YldDIN

GN

TS

GN

TS

GN

TS

GN

TS

GN

TS

0
0
0
0
1*
0
1*
1*
0

1
1
4
1
2
1
3
1
1

0.37
0.37
0.39
0.45
0.32
0.47
0.31
0.36
0.44

0.35
0.37
0.35
0.43
0.27
0.45
0.29
0.38
0.43

0
0
0
0
0.07
0
0.22
0.09
0

0.04
0.00
0.11
0.03
0.18
0.03
0.26
0.02
0.02

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0.02
0.02
0.37
0.11
0.22
0.14
0.55
0.18
0.18

186
181
59
263
42
195
94
94
169

180
181
53
257
36
190
87
100
166

Global NEWS-2 considers this a dammed river, without specifying the number of dams.

Table 5b
Comparison of calculations for DIP in this study (TS) and the original Global NEWS-2 (GN) approach. The table presents the number of dams considered, the
nutrient export fraction for DIP (FErivDIP) (fraction, 01), dam retention for DIP (DDIP), nutrient inputs to the rivers (RSdifDIP in kg km 2 y 1) and river export of
DIP to the coastal waters (YldDIP in kg km 2 y 1) for nine rivers in 1970. See Table 2 for explanations of model parameters and formulas used for calculations.
River

Barito
Mahakam
Brantas
Tulangbawang
Solo
Sadang
Citarum
Serang
Serayu

Dam retention (DDIP,b)

RSpntDIP

GN

FErivDIP
TS

GN

TS

GN

TS

GN

YldDIP
TS

1.00
1.00
0.87
0.97
0.45
0.98
0.17
0.39
0.89

0.80
1.00
0.35
0.88
0.11
0.89
0.12
0.73
0.82

0
0
0
0
0.39
0
0.79
0.50
0

0.20
0.00
0.58
0.09
0.85
0.10
0.85
0.07
0.07

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0.01
0.01
0.10
0.03
0.06
0.04
0.15
0.05
0.05

21
21
13
15
5
19
2
7
19

17
21
5
13
1
17
2
12
18

Fig. 1a. River export of DIN (load, Gg N y 1) to coastal waters in the past (1970 and 2000) as calculated following the Global NEWS-2 (GN) approach from
Mayorga et al. (2010) (see Table 2) and according to This Study: TS (as in Tables 5a and 5b), and TS+ (dams as in Tables 5a and 5b, and sewage as in Suwarno
et al. (2014).

The differences between Global NEWS-2 and This Study (GN versus TS and TS+) were small in 1970 and 2000, indicating
that our improvements for the dams in the calculations had little effect on the modeling of nutrient export by rivers before
2000. When we also accounted for improvements in calculations for sewage (TS+), the resulting river export of DIP (DIP
yield) in 2000 was higher than two calculations of Global NEWS-2 (GN) and This Study (TS) (Fig. 1b). This can be explained
by the fact that improved sewage calculations result in higher nutrient inputs to rivers than the original Global NEWS-2
approach as adopted in GN and TS (see Fekete et al., 2010). This is due to the net effect of changes in actual water discharges
(Qact) (decreasing) and in the input of nutrients to coastal waters (increasing) between 1970 and 2000 (Suwarno et al., 2013
and submitted Suwarno et al., 2014).

D. Suwarno et al. / Sustainability of Water Quality and Ecology 34 (2014) 5566

63

Fig. 1b. As Fig. 1a, but for DIP load.

Fig. 2a. DIN load in the future (2030 and 2050) as calculated following the Global NEWS-2 (GN) approach (from Mayorga et al. (2010)) (see Table 2), and
according to this study: (TS, as in Tables 5a and 5b), and TS+ (dams as in Tables 5a and 5b, and sewage as in Suwarno et al. (2014). Results are shown for four
MEA scenarios (AM, GO, OS, TG).

Fig. 2b. As Fig. 2a, but for DIP load.

Figs. 2a2d presents future trends in DIN and DIP loads at nine river mouths in Indonesia for GN, TS and TS+, indicating
that future loads are higher than in 2000 in most scenarios. In particular DIP export is calculated to increase fast, as a result of
increased point source inputs to rivers from sewage. We calculate highest nutrient loads for TS+, and lowest for TS for 2030
and 2050. This indicates that our improvements for dams in TS tend to reduce the calculated nutrient export by rivers. This
can be explained by higher nutrient retention in dammed rivers (DF, see Tables 5a and 5b). By increasing the number of
dammed rivers from 3 to 9 (including 15 dams), we increased the calculated retention rates in the nine rivers. Our model
improvements for sewage tend to increase the calculated nutrient loads, as a result of improved modeling of nutrient inputs
from sewage (Suwarno et al., 2014). The net effect of improved modeling of dams and sewage (case TS+) is an increase in the
calculated nutrient loads compared to GN.
We also analyzed TDN and TDP export by the nine Indonesian rivers (Table 6) for GN, TS and TS+. TDN export increased
considerably between 1970 and 2000 (up to 50%) while TDP is more or less stable. For the future we calculate increases in

64

D. Suwarno et al. / Sustainability of Water Quality and Ecology 34 (2014) 5566

Fig. 2c. As Fig. 2a for DON load.

Fig. 2d. As Fig. 2a for DOP load.

Table 6
Total nutrient export by nine rivers to coastal waters in Indonesia as calculated by the original Global NEWS-2 model (GN), following Table 2 in this study to
improve the modeling of dams (TS), and by adding to that our improved model for sewage (TS+; Suwarno et al., 2014).
Year

1970
2000
2030
AM
GO
OS
TG
2050
AM
GO
OS
TG

TDN (DIN + DON) (Gg y

TDP (DIP + DOP) (Gg y

GN

TS

TS+

GN

TS

TS+

131
203

130
197

130
201

9
9

9
8

9
9

178
221
204
216

173
215
198
209

205
232
229
226

9
18
11
18

8
14
9
14

18
23
19
21

183
238
209
235

177
230
203
228

241
278
259
268

11
28
13
29

9
21
12
22

29
42
31
34

TDN and TDP from 2000 onwards for all scenarios. For TDN the calculated increases range from 1% to 15% for the period
20002030 and from 3% to 38% for the period 20002050. For TDP the calculated increases range from 20% to 200% for
20002030 and from 12% to 370% for 20002050. The increase in TDN and TDP are largest in the GO and TG scenarios. This
is because in these scenarios the fraction of the population connected to sewerage systems increases relatively fast.
For TDN and TDP the differences between GN and TS and TS+ were smaller (<10%) for the past years (1970 and 2000) than
for future years. As explained above, the differences between GN and TS are caused by improved dams calculations, whereas
the difference between TS and TS+ is because of the improved sewage calculations.
The results indicate that our improved modeling of dams (in TS) reduced the calculated future TDP load by up to 20% relative to the GN calculations. For TDN this reduction is small (up to 3%). When comparing the results of TS+ (including an
updated sewage model) we nd that the TS+ loads are 8200% higher than TS, and 5160% higher than GN. This indicates

D. Suwarno et al. / Sustainability of Water Quality and Ecology 34 (2014) 5566

65

that improved sewage modeling increases the calculated loads considerably, and that improved modeling of dams decreases
the calculated loads.
4. Conclusion
We evaluated and improved the Global NEWS-2 model to calculate N and P inputs of the large dams to Indonesian rivers
mouth. We applied the improved model to 15 selected Indonesian dams in nine large rivers. For the past years (1970 and
2000) the Global NEWS-2 estimates do not differ largely from our estimates for dissolved N and P export by rivers. For
the future (2030 and 2050), the Global NEWS-2 estimates are higher than our estimates for all dissolved forms of N and
P (DIN, DON, DIP and DOP) and in all scenarios because of improved modeling of dams. When we add our improved modeling
of sewage (TS+) the estimates are higher than this study (TS) and Global NEWS-2 (GN) because of the increasing number of
people connected to sewage systems (Suwarno et al., 2014). The Global NEWS-2 model assumes that there are no additional
nutrient inputs to dammed reservoirs associated with sh farming (as a point source) that we did consider in this study. We
conclude that sheries may cause local eutrophication problems in the reservoirs (Miyazato and Khan, 2004), but sheries
have no large impact on the total nutrient export at the river mouth.
TDN export by the nine rivers to coastal waters increased by 50% between 1970 and 2000. River export of TDP was more
or less stable during this period. In the future, TDN exports are projected to increase about 16% in all scenarios. River export
of TDP may be more than double in GN and TS. In TS+ the increase is even larger. These results indicate that increased damming of rivers may slow down the future increase in nutrient pollution, in particular for P. We calculated that the 15 dams
may reduce river export of dissolved nitrogen by 3%. River export of dissolved inorganic phosphorus may be reduced by up to
20% compared to Global NEWS-2.
Our study contributes to better understanding of the effects of dams on nutrient export by rivers to the coastal waters in
Indonesia. We show that it is important in river nutrient export models to appropriately account for nutrient retention in
dam waters. The results of this study can be used to support formulation of options to manage river and coastal waters
in Indonesia to prevent coastal eutrophication.
Acknowledgements
This research was conducted as part of a PhD study supported by the Department of Science of the Open University of The
Netherlands, and Soegijapranata Catholic University, Semarang, Indonesia. This study was performed as one of the PhD studies in the SENSE Research School (125656).
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