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POTENTIAL OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC AND WIND POWER PLANTS IN

MEETING ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN AFGHANISTAN

Thesis
Submitted to
The School of Engineering of the
UNIVERSITY OF DAYTON

In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for
The Degree of
Master of Science in Renewable and Clean Energy

By
Ahmad Murtaza Ershad
Dayton, Ohio
May, 2014

POTENTIAL OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC AND WIND POWER PLANTS IN
MEETING ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN AFGHANISTAN

Name: Ershad, Ahmad Murtaza
APPROVED BY:

_____________________________

___________________________

Robert J. Brecha, Ph.D.
Advisory Committee Chairman
Professor
Mechanical and Aerospace
Engineering

J. Kelly Kissock, Ph.D.
Committee Member
Chair and Professor
Mechanical and Aerospace
Engineering

_________________________________
Kevin P. Hallinan, Ph.D.
Committee Member
Professor
Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering

_____________________________

___________________________

John G. Weber, Ph.D.
Associate Dean
School of Engineering

Tony E. Saliba, Ph.D.
Dean, School of Engineering
& Wilke Distinguished Professor

© Copyright by
Ahmad Murtaza Ershad
All rights reserved
2014

ABSTRACT
POTENTIAL OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC AND WIND POWER PLANTS IN
MEETING ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN AFGHANISTAN

Name: Ershad, Ahmad Murtaza
University of Dayton
Advisor: Dr. Robert J. Brecha
This thesis analyses the potential of large-scale grid-connected solar photovoltaic
(PV) and wind power plants in two of Afghanistan’s most populous provinces (Balkh and
Herat) to meet a fraction of growing electricity demand. The analysis is performed by
quantifying resource quality, variability and cost of energy generation. First, the quality
of solar and wind resources is quantified by characterizing wind speed and solar radiation
and calculating capacity factors and energy yields from hypothetical power plants using
measured wind speed and typical solar radiation data. Second, variability of wind and
solar resources is quantified by comparing their daily and seasonal profiles with
electricity demand profiles, analyzing their impacts on load duration curves and
determining their penetration and curtailment levels for various demand scenarios.
Finally, cost of energy generated from solar PV and wind power plants is determined.
The research shows that future solar PV and wind power plants in Balkh and Herat
provinces could achieve very high penetration levels without significant curtailment

iv

and less imports of diesel fuel with rising costs and unfriendly environmental impacts.meaning less reliance on unpredictable and unstable power purchase agreements with neighboring countries. longer life of limited domestic fossil fuel resources such as coal and natural gas. v .

vi .Dedicated to Afghanistan.

my fiancé and the rest of my family and friends. my committee members. Kevin Hallinan and Dr. I would also like to thank Dr. Not only did they support me academically. Robert J. my thesis committee chair and advisor. Kelly Kissock.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank Dr. In the end. for their support. for his time and guidance for completing this work. However. ideas and comments. I was lucky enough to receive some help from colleagues in Afghanistan. I am very happy to have undertaken this research and may the information presented here be a step toward building an energy independent Afghanistan. they helped me appreciate the importance of energy in development and applauded me again and again for my research about Afghanistan. In the meantime. "And say: My Lord increase me in knowledge. Brecha. I would like to thank Engineer Haris Haidari of Sustainable Energy Services Afghanistan (SESA) for providing me with the wind speed data used in this thesis." Quran 20:114 vii . It is not easy to do research about Afghanistan without getting frustrated due to lack of adequate and reliable data. I would like to appreciate the support of my parents.

..................................................................... 14 2............................................ 3................. 26 2............. Wind Shear.. 5 1......TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ..........................................2........................ Wind Speed Distribution.......... xv 1............... iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................................................ 48 3.....................................1........ 11 2..........1.....................................3....................................5................................. 1 1......... vii TABLE OF CONTENTS ......................................................................................2.....................................................................................4................................2..................... Research Objective ............................................. 22 2..................... 25 2................. viii LIST OF FIGURES ............................. Turbulence Intensity (TI) ........... Background ...........................2....................................................... xiii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND NOTATIONS ....................................2........................... 47 3.. Wind Plant Output................................ 11 2................................................................................ Wind Direction....... Literature Review .... Datasets ............................. 42 ELECTRICITY DEMAND ........2............................................................. x LIST OF TABLES .....................................1... Wind Power Density ............... 28 2............................................................................................................................................................ 39 2..................... 2........................................................... 32 2.......................................................... 14 2......... Wind Resource Characteristics .................. Seasonal Profile .......................... Solar Resource Characteristics . Solar PV Plant Output ................... INTRODUCTION ...............2.......................2...............................6............ 9 RESOURCE QUALITY.............................2............................................................................................... 50 viii ...........................1................................ 31 2.....................................................................4.........................3.........................2........3............................................................................................................... Diurnal Profile ............... Wind Speed ............................................... 1 1.............................................................................................................................5..............

...............3..................................................................................... 64 6................................................................................. COST OF ENERGY GENERATION ......................................4....... 55 4.................... RESOURCE VARIABILITY...........1.........................2.......................................................... 52 4.......... CONCLUSION ......................................... 52 4............................ Penetration and Curtailment Levels ............................. Residual Load Duration Curves ............................. 71 ix ......... 58 5........ Seasonal and Daily Correlation ........................................................................................ 68 REFERENCES ...............

......................... Monthly wind speed in Uljato and OAMS ............................ Monthly wind speed in Hotel Safid and OAHR ................... Seasonal variation of wind speed and standard deviation in Uljato at 50 m height...................................................... 20 Figure 12........................................................... 20 Figure 11...........................................LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1......................................................... 3 Figure 2.... 16 Figure 6............................... 16 Figure 7.................... Daily profile of measured wind speed in Hotel Safid and OAHR ............... Changes in monthly average wind speeds in OAMS for the period from 2011 to 2013............................... 5 Figure 3............................. Share of energy generation sources in 2011 ......... 19 Figure 10................................... 18 Figure 9.................... 24 Figure 15.................... Daily variation of TI in Hotel Safid and Uljato ............................................. Hotel Safid and Uljato annual average daily wind speed profile ..................... 21 Figure 13..... Daily profile of measured wind speed in Uljato and OAMS ....................... Seasonal variation of wind speed diurnal profile in Uljato ...... 15 Figure 4............................. Seasonal variation of TI in Hotel Safid and Uljato ....................... 24 x ... 15 Figure 5......... 17 Figure 8........ Seasonal variation of wind speed and standard deviation in Hotel Safid at 50 m height... Autocorrelation function of measured wind speed in Hotel Safid and Uljato 22 Figure 14........................................... Seasonal variation of wind speed diurnal profile in Hotel Safid ...................................................................... Map of Afghanistan ............................................................................

...Figure 16......... 33 Figure 26..................... 26 Figure 19.. Monthly net capacity factor for solar PV power plants in Balkh and Herat ................................................... 49 xi . 45 Figure 35.................................. Hotel Safid wind speed frequency distribution at 50 m ........... Map of annual global horizontal irradiance (GHI) for Afghanistan................ Load histogram for 2010 and 2011 ...................................... Monthly net capacity factors of Hotel Safid and Uljato win power plants ......................... Annual average diurnal AC power output of solar PV power plants in Balkh and Herat . Daily variation of average wind shear coefficient ......... 27 Figure 21...... Actual and fitted power curve of the 630KW wind turbine .................. Wind direction as percent of total energy in Hotel Safid (left) ....................... Wind speed direction as percent of total time in Uljato (right) ......... Monthly variation of average wind shear coefficient ............................................. Annual average monthly GHI at OAMS by various models ............. 39 Figure 30.... 46 Figure 36....................................... 25 Figure 18............................................ Wind direction as percent of time in Hotel Safi (right) ................. Annual average monthly GHI at OAHR by various models ............................. 40 Figure 31. 42 Figure 34.................... 630 KW wind turbine composite power curve ............................ 28 Figure 23........................................................... Wind speed direction as percent of total energy in Uljato (left) ................. Monthly global horizontal irradiance (GHI) in Afghanistan .. 38 Figure 29...................... Actual and bi-Weibull wind speed distribution frequency ..... 29 Figure 24.. 38 Figure 28......... 36 Figure 27.......... 25 Figure 17........ 41 Figure 32................... Uljato wind speed frequency distribution at 50 m................. Annual average daily global horizontal irradiance at OAMS and OAHR ...... Annual average daily net energy yield of Hotel Safid and Uljato wind power plants . 41 Figure 33........................................................ 26 Figure 20........................ 28 Figure 22.......................... 31 Figure 25................

63 xii .................... 54 Figure 41..................... Residual load duration curves (RLDC) of Balkh and Herat grids after introducing solar PV and wind power together ............. 60 Figure 48................ Kabul 2010 .................................................................. Herat solar PV power penetration ................... Balkh wind power curtailment losses ........ 50 Figure 38........................................... Balkh wind power penetration.......................................... 57 Figure 44.2011 annual average daily demand profile.............................................. 51 Figure 39......................................................Figure 37..................................... 63 Figure 53.................................. Balkh solar PV power penetration ...... 55 Figure 43................ Annual average daily profile of demand versus wind and solar in Balkh ................................ Herat solar PV power curtailment losses............................................. Herat wind power curtailment losses ...... Kabul province average monthly demand in 2010 and 2011 ........... Residual load duration curve (RLDC) of Balkh grid after introducing solar PV and wind power independently ............................................... Balkh solar PV power curtailment ........ Residual load duration curves (RLDC) of Herat grid after introducing solar PV and wind power independently ......................................................................................................................................... 55 Figure 42.................................... 58 Figure 46........................ 54 Figure 40................... Herat wind power penetration .............................. 57 Figure 45................................................. Seasonal variation of intermittent renewables and electricity demand in Herat .............. Annual average daily profile of demand versus wind and solar in Herat ....... 62 Figure 52................................. 61 Figure 49................. Seasonal variation of intermittent renewables and electricity demand in Balkh ........................................... 61 Figure 50......... 60 Figure 47............................................................................. 62 Figure 51....................................................

...... Weibull parameters for measured wind speed at 50 m height ....... OAMS annual and daily average GHI ........... 14 Table 6.......................... OAHR annual and daily average GHI ...... 31 Table 10............................................... 38 Table 13................................................... Hotel Safid and Uljato wind power densities at 30 m........ 30 Table 9.......................................... 40 Table 14... 12 Table 3.................................................... Net annual energy production and capacity factors for Hotel Safid and Uljato solar PV power plants and typical capacity factor around the world ............... Range test criteria ........ Uljato and Hotel Safid annual average measured wind speeds in 2012 ............... 37 Table 12...... 49 xiii ............................... 12 Table 2.. Bi-Weibull parameters for wind speeds at 50 m in Uljato and Hotel Safid ...... 13 Table 5.. Operating ranges and accuracy of measurement sensors used by ACEP ............. 40 Table 15....................................... 27 Table 8......... Kabul Province demand statistics and load factor in 2010 and 2011 ..................... Calculated and assumed wind farm losses for Hotel Safid and Uljato ........................................ Net annual energy production and capacity factors for Hotel Safid and Uljato wind power plants and typical capacity factor around the world ..... Average wind shear coefficients in Uljato and Hotel Safid . 40 m and 50 m height ................ IEC 61400-1 Turbulence categories 3rd edition ........ Dataset properties for Uljato and Hotel Safid sites..................... 45 Table 16.... 32 Table 11...... 23 Table 7..........................LIST OF TABLES Table 1...................... 13 Table 4...... ACEP wind monitoring sites in 2012 ...

................ 65 Table 19.............................. 65 Table 18..... 67 xiv ............................................. Electricity generation cost of solar PV and wind power plants in Balkh and Herat ........ Net annual energy production and capacity factors of solar PV and wind power plants in Balkh and Herat ...............................................................................Table 17. Economic parameters used in calculation of electricity generation cost of solar PV and wind power plants in Balkh and Herat provinces ................................................................................................

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND NOTATIONS ACEP ADP AEIC AEP AFG AVG AWEA CF GDP GHI GIS GW IEC KWH LCOE MW NEPS NRECA NREL OAHR OAMS PSMP PV PVF RLDC TI TMY USAID USD WB Afghanistan Clean Energy Program Asian Development Bank Afghanistan Energy Information Center Annual Energy Production Afghani Average American Wind Energy Association Capacity Factor Gross Domestic Product Global Horizontal Irradiance Geographic Information System Gigawatts International Electro-mechanical Commission Kilowatt Hours Levelised Cost of Energy Megawatts North East Power System National Rural Electric Cooperative Association National Renewable Energy Laboratory Mazar-e-Sharif International Airport Herat International Airport Power Sector Master Plan Photovoltaic Present Value Factor Residual Load Duration Curve Turbulence Intensity Typical Meteorological Year United States Agency for International Development US Dollars World Bank xv .

Worldwide greenhouse gas emissions increased by 70 % between 1970 and 2004 (IPCC. 2013). In the recent years. INTRODUCTION Background About 1.1. Italy. Electricity demand in Asia and Pacific is projected to more than double between 2010 and 2035 (ADB. Annual average growth rate of cumulative installed capacity of solar PV and wind from the end of 2002 through 2012 was 47 % and 25 % respectively (REN21. the United States. 2007).3 billion people do not have access to electricity in the world and four out of five of them live in Afghanistan and other developing countries of South Asia and Sub-Saharan-Africa (REN21. countries around the world have felt the need to diversify their power production fuel inputs and adopted renewable energies in response to challenges mentioned above. 2013). At the same time. Germany. rapid growth has been seen in the use of renewable energy sources for electricity generation across the world.1. 2013). Total global renewable power (excluding hydro) capacity exceeded 480 GW and supplied about 5. 1.2 % of global electricity in 2012 (REN21. China. Fossil fuels are becoming more scarce and expensive. Total global installed capacity of solar PV and wind power reached 100 GW and 283 GW respectively by the end of 2012 (REN21. 2013). Spain and India are the top countries for renewable energy power capacity and renewables represented about 11 % of total 1 . 2013).

Afghanistan has an arid and semi-arid climate with rugged mountains and some plains in north and southwest (NOAA.6 % with solar PV in 2012 (REN21. Foreign aid plays a major role in the economy. 2013).). Afghanistan is one of the least developed countries in the world located in south Asia bordering Islamic Republic of Iran from west. Gross national income (GNI) per Afghan was $ 680 in 2012 (WB. Afghanistan’s neighboring countries Pakistan and Iran had wind power installed capacities of 106 MW and 91 MW in 2013. 2013). Afghanistan received more than $ 56 Billion in development aid during 2002 and 2010 which translates to about 78 % of GDP since 2003 (Fichtner. 2013). Although there have been concerns about the consequences of high penetration of variable renewable energy sources. It is located between latitude 29° 35’ and 38° 40’ degrees north and longitude 60° 31’ and 75° 00’ east. Denmark for example. 2 . 2014). met 30 % of its electricity demand with wind and 5. 2013). Its total land area is 652. respectively (GWEC. and Turkmenistan from North (Figure 1). 2008). 2012-2013 estimated population is 25. Afghan society has been very vulnerable and insecure over the past few decades.d. 2014). It was ranked 175th on the United Nation’s Human Development Index and the lowest in Asia in 2012 (UNDP. 35 % of the population was unemployed and 36 % of them lived under poverty line (CIA. 2014). Uzbekistan. 2010). Literacy rate in 2010 was about 30 % and is expected to increase to 50 % by 2015 (ACCU.100 excluding temporary Afghan refugees living in Iran and Pakistan and only about 24 % of the population lives in urban areas (CSO. solar PV and wind power are achieving high levels of penetration in many countries. In 2008.864 km2 which is slightly smaller than the state of Texas.installed capacity in India by 2012 (REN21. China from northeast and Tajikistan. n.500. Pakistan from south and east.

409 GWh (2032) and annual peak demand from 742 MW (2011) to 3. 2013).blogspot.502 MW (2032) (Fichtner. 2013). 2013). Map of Afghanistan 1 Gross electricity consumption in Afghanistan was 140 kWh per capita in 2011. On the other hand.7 % per year as the country’s population.Figure 1. gross electricity demand is growing at a staggering rate of 8. Annual gross demand for the whole country is expected to increase from 3.531 GWh (2011) to 18. This growth in demand means that Afghanistan will need 1 http://nzakariah18gi. one of the lowest rates in the world (Fichtner. Average household electricity consumption rate varies from 3000 kWh/year in Kabul Province to 178 kWh/year in Ghor Province (Fichtner.html 3 .com/2012/08/background-to-breadwinner. 2013). GDP and income levels are growing and political and economic stability is being achieved (Fichtner.

338 MW including imports from Tajikistan. Total generation was recorded to be 3. 4 . Figure 2 shows the share of each energy source in the Afghan power system in 2011. there are many decentralized local grids and stand-alone systems such as solar PV and diesel generators providing electricity. Uzbekistan.3 % respectively. while hydro power and thermal (diesel-fired) power plants make up the rest each having about the same share. 36. 2013). 2013). In addition. Installed capacity (not operating capacity) of existing grid-connected electricity generation assets reaches about 1.about five times more electrical energy than was produced in 2011. 2012).088 GWh (AEIC. more than half of which is diesel generators. Only 28 % of the population was connected to electricity grid and this number is projected to reach to about 83 % by 2032 (Fichtner. Imports made up about 73 % of total generation. Domestic hydropower and diesel fired power plants each contributed 26 % and 1. however. interconnection of all grid segments is proposed by year 2032 (Fichtner. The share of diesel power plants could be higher due to missing and incomplete data. The majority of imported power was thermal-based with some hydropower from Tajikistan. Imports account for about 63 % of total grid-connected capacity. Currently about 134 MW of decentralized power generators are installed around the country mostly in rural areas. 2013). Iran and Turkmenistan. 13 MW of solar PV.65 MW of micro-hydro power and about 200 KW of wind power make up the rest of Afghan decentralized generating capacity (MEW . Afghanistan so far does not have an interconnected centralized power system.

Share of energy generation sources in 2011 A majority of existing and planned hydropower plants use day storage rather than run-of-the river generation (Fichtner. Thermal power plants are mainly reciprocating engines run by diesel fuel. The only two gas turbine generators are NW Kabul 21. there are no utility-scale solar PV or wind power plants. Examples of run-of-the river hydro plants are Grishk (2. The main reasons are lower operating costs. 1. donor agencies and communities themselves.8 MW and NW Kabul 23 MW. Literature Review Stand-alone off-grid solar and wind energy technologies have thus far been seen as a favorable solution to electrify rural areas in Afghanistan by the government.2 MW).Figure 2. technical simplicity.4 MW) and Puli-Khomri (8. The main hydro plants with day storage are Naghlu (100 MW) and Mahipar (66 MW). Currently.2. and short installation time. 2013). The largest renewable energy system feeding a local grid is a 1 5 .

1 degrees longitude (8.1 degrees latitude and 0. diurnal strength. NREL’s estimates showed a total resource potential of about 158 GW. Relative to solar energy. The datasets are in a gridded format and have a ground resolution of 0. 2007). and the autocorrelation factor for each 1 km2 grid in Afghanistan. Here we review some of the main studies regarding the potential of large scale solar PV or wind power plants in Afghanistan. and temperature are not included. 2007). However. Weibull shape factor. NREL published a 1km resolution wind map at 50 m for Afghanistan in 2007 to quantify wind resource potential and identify possible locations for further on-site wind measurement campaigns (NREL. windiest hour. NREL also produced high-resolution satellite-derived global horizontal and direct normal irradiance data for Afghanistan (NREL. wind direction. Irradiance datasets include monthly averages over a three year period from 2002 to 2005. The dataset includes average monthly wind speeds together with statistical parameters such as wind power density. The above mentioned parameters are sufficient to calculate hourly wind speed for a site. Tetra Tech used multi-criteria geographic information system (GIS) analysis to identify the best sites for future installation of wind measurement 6 .MW solar PV plant with battery storage in the central province of Bamyan. In another study.5 km x 10 km). This dataset is not sufficient to model the energy production of a wind farm since wind speed varies over small distances and terrains. The accuracy of modeled data is in the range of ±20% due to lack of extensive field data as inputs to the model and Afghanistan’s complex terrain. turbulence.

located in Herat (3).instruments for wind farm development and their respective installed capacities and capacity factors (TETRA TECH.045 GW of installed capacity. The study identified a total of 10 sites. and measured wind speed data from Panjsher Valley to determine the technical and economic potential of these sites. prevention of overloaded facilities and respecting limits of reactive power at all generators. The demand profile of Kabul was used to model daily demand profiles in Herat and Balkh provinces. Balkh (5) and Kabul provinces (2). In addition. available GIS data. 2009). The total economic potential of these sites was estimated to be 1. Calculations are performed on an annual basis and do not study seasonal and daily characteristics of wind resource. The study used NREL’s modeled wind resource maps. the study does not cover demand characteristics of the provinces and whether the wind generation profile matches the demand profile. NRECA International evaluated the response of transmission networks in Balkh and Herat provinces to carry hypothetical levels of wind penetration and determined the maximum installed capacity in Mega Watts (MW) of wind farms without disrupting the quality of the supplied power to the customers (NRECA . The reason for assuming hypothetical wind farm capacities was lack of wind resource characterization and daily profiles.5 MW respectively if these systems were to be upgraded. 2010). voltage stability at specified levels during short-term wind farm output fluctuations. Criteria for the determination of the maximum capacity of wind farms were an installed capacity of no more than 80 % of the minimum grid demand. 7 . Results showed that Balkh and Herat power systems could handle wind power plant installed capacities of up to 85 MW and 16.

2014). Ershad estimated Afghan resource potential of solar PV to be about 30. Topographic constraints included lands with less than 3 % slope and land uses limited to only rangeland. The study used a multicriteria GIS analysis of the solar resource together with topographic and geographic constraints. Annual average estimated capacity factor for solar PV was estimated to be about 13 %. The solar PV system was proposed by the New Zealand Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT). Future solar PV farms were assumed to be located within 40 km of five major demand centers (Kabul. and production and demand profile matching for the particular communities in Bamyan. 2010).Foster assessed the feasibility of interconnecting a 10 MWe photovoltaic (PV) system in the Kandahar City utility as part of USAID funded Afghanistan Clean Energy Program (ACEP) (ACEP. lower cost of energy per kWh. Herat. He concluded that it is a logical choice to install a 1 MW micro-hydro power plant rather than a 1 MW PV system due to lower capital cost. Foster also compared a proposed 1 MW grid-tied solar PV power system with a potential 1 MW micro-hydro power scheme to electrify communities in the province of Bamyan (ACEP . 2011). Monthly solar radiation and air temperature were used to calculate energy generation and the capacity factor for the system. A life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis were used to determine total installed cost. 987 GW while its technical potential being about 29 GW (Ershad. No 8 . The annual average estimated capacity factor was 23 %. bare soil and sand covered areas. Kandahar and Jalalabad) and within 2 km of an existing transmission line. net present value and amortized cost of energy. Mazar-e-Sharif. This study assumed a 1-axis tracking PV system without storage connected to the local grid.

Fichtner recommends developing distributed hybrid wind. well developed power systems. Finally. 1. Western Herat and Eastern Balkh are said to be two of the major wind resource areas in the country (NREL. Fichtner concluded in Afghanistan Power Sector Master Plan (PSMP) that solar PV and wind power plants could not achieve high penetration levels in the existing and future power system and their role in the mix of grid-connected power generation is said to be minimal (Fichtner. heavy reliance on imported power and proximity to the western and northern borders. 2007). 2013).constraint was applied for solar radiation. two of the most promising provinces for future renewable power generation. solar and diesel power plants and off-grid solar home systems to meet the demand mainly in rural areas. The potential for solar PV and wind power plants is analyzed by quantifying resource quality. variability and cost of energy generation. In addition to wind. Quality is quantified in section two by characterizing solar and wind energy resources and plant capacity factors and energy yields. these provinces have excellent solar resource. 9 . The study did not include economic or market potential analysis.3. Research Objective The purpose of this study is to analyze the potential of solar PV and wind power plants in Balk and Herat Provinces. Other factors that make these provinces very attractive to renewable energy deployment are their relatively high electricity demand. Section three analyzes electricity demand and how it changes on a daily and seasonal basis.

variability is measured in terms of curtailment and penetration. 400 MW and 500 MW). Curtailment is associated with times when the total capacity including that coming from renewable sources exceeds demand. & Luderer. and penetration refers to the fraction of total energy provided by renewable energy.3 describes our effort to estimate penetration and curtailment levels of three solar PV and wind power plant sizes (50 MW. 2014) in the References section for more detail on types of loads 10 . Finally. 300 MW. cost of energy generated from solar PV and wind power plants is determined in section five and the thesis is concluded in section six. and 150 MW) interconnected to grid segments with varying peak loads (200 MW. 2 Refer to (Ueckerdt. 100 MW. cyclic and baseload are studied by creating residual load duration curves (RLDC) explained in section 4. Third.2. Second. the impacts of power supply from solar PV and wind on various types of loads2 such as peak. First. seasonal and diurnal profiles of power output from wind and solar PV power plants are correlated with temporal electricity demand profiles analyzed in section 4.1.Using data from sections two and three. Brecha. Section 4. variability (section four) is analyzed using three different methodologies.

2. 11 .1. air temperature at 3 m and global horizontal solar radiation were also measured. the wind resource at Hotel Safid for Herat Province and Uljato for Balkh Province are characterized and later used for wind plant power output calculations. Datasets Historical measured wind and solar data is very limited in Afghanistan. 40m and 50 m elevations were collected for a period of one year in 2012 at each potential site. 2009). Six sites (Table 1) were selected using NREL’s modeled wind resource maps and other important criteria for wind farm siting such as proximity to transmission lines. In addition. the ACEP funded by the USAID conducted a wind monitoring campaign to measure wind data for a period of 12 months for commercial applications at an appropriate height. These two sites have the highest annual average wind speed among the monitored sites and are in the proximity of the sites selected for further measurement by a previous study (TETRA TECH. For the purpose of this study. In 2012. RESOURCE QUALITY 2. Tenminute interval wind speed and wind direction data at 30 m.

2677 67. to verify the time step correctness of the datasets. Table 2 shows ranges of two main parameters used in the test.Station Location Province Hotel Safid Urdu Khan Uljato Sari-Tangi Naghlu Jabal Seraj Herat Herat Balkh Balkh Kabul Parwan Latitude (°) 34. Range test criteria In addition.8226 62.35) < Avg < 25 m/s Wind Direction 0 ° < Avg < 360 ° Table 2.4054 34.6222 67. Wind Speed Offset (0.7212 36.6959 69. NRG tall towers were used 12 . measured temperature peaked in the afternoon at both sites. Missing data for the period of 01/01/2012 to 01/16/2012 was filled with data from 01/01/2013-01/16/2013 and for the period of 02/01/2012 to 02/04/2012 with data from 01/30-01/31 and 02/05-02/06/2012 for the Hotel Safid site.6278 34.6994 69. 1997). No problems were observed with the data.2348 958 958 385 1012 1199 1199 + 4 30 + 4 30 + 4 30 + 4 30 + 4 30 + 4 30 Table 1. Table 3 shows details of the dataset properties for Uljato and Hotel Safid. Feb 29 is not included in the analysis.3126 36. ACEP wind monitoring sites in 2012 Collected data were validated by comparing them with allowable upper and lower limiting values called range tests (AWS Scientific.6220 35. As expected.1255 Longitude Elevation Time Zone (°) (m) 61. measured temperatures were matched with the data from the airports.

40m.14 m/s ±0.8226 958 m 50 m. Variable Latitude Longitude Elevation Height of Measurement Start Date End Date Duration 2012 Data Recovered Length of Time step Mean Temperature Uljato N 36.45 m/s 8° maximum ±1.36 % (Including 2/29) 10 minutes 18.62222 385 m 50 m.7212 E 67.081 kg/m3 Table 3. 30m. 3m 1/17/2012 0:00 1/16/2013 0:00 12 months 95.5 °C 0 .8 °C Mean Air Density 1. Dataset properties for Uljato and Hotel Safid sites Parameter Wind Speed @ 50 m Wind Direction @ 50 m Temperature Global Horizontal Irradiance Sensor Type NRG #40 Maximum Anemometer NRG #200P Wind Direction Vane NRG#110 S Li-Cor #Li 200SA Pyranometer Operating Range 1 m/s . In addition. 40m.4054 E 61. 3m 1/1/2012 0:00 1/1/2013 0:00 12 months 99.360° -40 °C to 52. 30m. a separate spreadsheet is developed to calculate the output of a PV array in Balkh province using actual measured global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and ambient 13 . Operating ranges and accuracy of measurement sensors used by ACEP NREL’s Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) weather files for Mazar-e-Sharif International Airport (OAMS) and Herat International Airport (OAHR) are used to calculate the energy production of solar PV power plants in Balkh and Herat.to measure the data.96 m/s 0° .3000 W/m2 Accuracy ±0.73% (Including 2/29) 10 minutes 18.7 °C Hotel Safid N 34.157 kg/m3 1. Table 4 shows the operating ranges and accuracy of measurement sensors.1 °C ±2 % Table 4.

There is a bigger difference in monthly wind speeds between the three measurement heights in summer in Hotel Safid and winter in Uljato due to the higher wind speed standard deviations.2.60 40 6.84 50 6.1. Measured solar radiation data from Hotel Safid included errors due to the malfunctioning of installed Pyranometer and is not used in calculations.75 8. Wind Resource Characteristics 2. Wind Speed It is common to see different seasonal variations throughout the world and even a country. Data from 2012 shows that a spring (March) maximum and a fall minimum (October) occur in Uljato.05 8.temperature from the Uljato wind monitoring station for comparison reasons. Figures 3 and 4 show seasonal variation of wind speed together with standard deviation at 50 m in Uljato and Hotel Safid respectively. Table 5 shows the annual average wind speed at 30 m.2.11 Table 5. and 50 m at both sites. 2. Uljato Hotel Safid Height (m) Wind speed (m/s) 30 5. Uljato and Hotel Safid annual average measured wind speeds in 2012 14 . The windiest month in Hotel Safid occurs in August while December experiences the lowest wind speed.34 9. 40 m.

Figure 3. Long-term wind speed data from Mazar-e-Sharif Airport (OAMS) and Herat Airport (OAHR) show that summers are windier than 15 . Uljato experiences windier winter season than Hotel Safid. Seasonal variation of wind speed and standard deviation in Uljato at 50 m height Figure 4. Seasonal variation of wind speed and standard deviation in Hotel Safid at 50 m height Sites with higher wind speed in the winter are ideal for Afghanistan since electricity demand is highest and hydropower generation is lowest.

Monthly wind speed in Hotel Safid and OAHR 16 .5 m/s with a maximum of 10. Figures 5 and 6 show the difference between measured wind speeds in Uljato and Hotel Safid and data measured at their nearest airports. Monthly wind speed in Uljato and OAMS Figure 6. 2007).winters. Figure 5.7 m/s (NREL. Annual average wind speed in Afghanistan is said to be 6.2 m/s and a minimum of 3.

Figure 7 shows changes in 3 year average monthly variation of wind speed for Mazar-e-Sharif which is about 50 kilometers west of Uljato site. Changes in monthly average wind speeds in OAMS for the period from 2011 to 2013 17 . it is important to understand and determine the longterm annual average wind speed in Uljato and Hotel Safid sites. & Rogers. This location experiences a fairly constant speed with a minimum in fall. Inter-annual variations in wind speed can have a huge impact in long-term energy production of wind turbines. However.It is important to notice that the above graphs do not show a typical behavior of monthly variation at these sites since monthly average wind speeds change significantly from year to year. using one year data is enough to determine the long-term average wind speed within an accuracy of 10 % with a confidence level of 90 % (Manwell. Thus. It takes at least 5 years to come up with a reliable annual average wind speed. Figure 7. 2009). McGowan.

Equation 1 (Lambart. annual average variation of daily wind speed in Uljato is within 10 % of its peak while in Hotel Safid it is within 30 %. 2004) shows the fitted cosine function. wind speeds in Uljato and Hotel Safid do not seem to depend strongly on time of the day. 2? ?? = ?̅ {1 + ? cos [(24 ) (? − ?)]} For ? = 1. 2. … 24 … (1) Where ?̅ = annual average wind speed (m/s) ? = Diurnal pattern strength (0-1) ? = Hour of peak wind 18 . McGowan. Uljato experiences multiple peaks while Hotel Safid seem to peak at around 5 p. Figure 8.m. As shown in Figure 8.A typical diurnal variation in wind speed shows an increase during the day and a decrease during the night (Manwell. 2009). Hotel Safid and Uljato annual average daily wind speed profile Diurnal pattern strengths for these sites are calculated by fitting a cosine function to their annual average diurnal profiles. & Rogers. However.

The lower the value the less wind speed depends on time of the day.m. Figure 9. Daily profile of measured wind speed in Uljato and OAMS 19 .Using NREL’s HOMER software and measured time-series wind speed data at 50 meters.m. 2004) and modeled value for all of Afghanistan is assumed to be 0. 5 p. diurnal pattern strengths of 0.0705 are obtained for Uljato and Hotel Safid respectively. Figures 9 and 10 show diurnal variation of wind speed in Uljato and Hotel Safid and at their nearest airports. According to NREL wind maps and airport data.00711 and 0.15 (NREL. 2007). Typical measured values for US cities range from 0 to 0.4 (Lambart. is the hour of peak wind in the most of the regions in the country while some western regions experience a peak at 3 a.

Daily profile of measured wind speed in Hotel Safid and OAHR With regard to seasons. McGowan. Wind in Uljato doesn’t follow a specific seasonal pattern. Figure 11. As shown in Figure 11 and 12. & Rogers. 2009). diurnal variation in wind speed is much higher during the months of April through October in Hotel Safid. typical diurnal variations are highest in summer and spring and lowest in winter (Manwell.Figure 10. Seasonal variation of wind speed diurnal profile in Hotel Safid 20 .

2004) as shown below ∑?−1 ?=1 (?? − ?̅ ) (??+1 − ?̅ ) ?1 = … (2) 2 ∑? ?=1(?? − ?̅ ) In the above equation ?1 is the autocorrelation between two time series wind speed data separated by one hour. autocorrelation functions of the data are created. Typical values for sites with complex topography are 0.943 respectively. Figure 13 shows the autocorrelation function of the hourly wind speed data measured in Uljato and Hotel Safid. ?̅ is annual average wind speed in m/s. Uljato and Hotel Safid both have uniform topography. Autocorrelation factors for Uljato and Hotel Safid are calculated to be 0.90-0. The autocorrelation factor.Figure 12. is calculated using Equation 2 (Lambert. 2004).97 for sites with uniform topography (Lambert.80 and 0.70 – 0.926 and 0. N is the number of time series data which is 8760. 21 . Seasonal variation of wind speed diurnal profile in Uljato To understand how wind speed in one hour depends on the wind speed in the previous hour. a parameter showing whether the wind speed is random or dependent on the previous values.

One could also notice the daily pattern of wind speeds at Hotel Safid and Uljato
by looking at the autocorrelation function plot. Afternoons tend to be windier and wind
speed is autocorrelated strongly at shorter lags but not significantly less correlated at
longer ones. This characteristic of wind speed is very important in predicting the wind
power plant output for grid management.
Diurnal variations could change from year to year. Although gross features of the
diurnal cycle can be depicted by one year of data, other details such as the amplitude of
oscillation of this cycle cannot be understood precisely (Manwell, McGowan, & Rogers,
2009).

Figure 13. Autocorrelation function of measured wind speed in Hotel Safid and Uljato

2.2.2. Turbulence Intensity (TI)
Important short-term wind speed variations are due to turbulence and gust.
Turbulence is the random changes in wind speed during an interval of no less than 1
second to ten minutes (Manwell, McGowan, & Rogers, 2009) . Turbulence and gusts

22

need to be quantified for a site for purposes such as turbine structural stability, control
and operation issues. To quantify turbulence, the turbulence intensity (TI) of the site
needs to be determined. Turbulence Intensity is the ratio of the standard deviation of
wind speed to mean wind speed (Manwell, McGowan, & Rogers, 2009). Turbulence
intensity affects a wind turbine’s mechanical and structural performance. Thus, wind
turbines are designed to work best in a specific turbulence range. International Electrical
Commission (IEC) standard 61400-1 defines four turbulence categories as shown in
Table 6 based on mean turbulence intensities at wind speed of 15 m/s, and wind turbine
manufacturers rate their devices accordingly.
Category Mean TI at 15 m/s
S

>0.16

A

0.14-0.16

B

0.12-0.14

C

0-0.12

Table 6. IEC 61400-1 Turbulence categories 3rd edition

TI at 15 m/s of 7 % and 11 % are observed in Uljato and Hotel Safid respectively.
Thus, both sites fall under IEC category C. Highest recorded 10-min wind speeds are
31.1 m/s and 32.9 m/s in Uljato and Hotel Safid respectively. Both sites have different
seasonal but similar daily profiles of turbulence intensity. Winds in summer months in
Uljato unlike Hotel Safid are more turbulent than winter months. On a daily basis, both
sites experience turbulent winds during the day obviously due to the heating of the air

23

during the day. Figures 14 and 15 show seasonal and diurnal variations of turbulence
intensity at both sites.

Figure 14. Seasonal variation of TI in Hotel Safid and Uljato

Figure 15. Daily variation of TI in Hotel Safid and Uljato

24

2.2.3. Wind Direction
Understanding prevailing wind directions and wind direction distribution at a site
to be developed for wind power production is very critical since they affect energy
production and wind turbine structural performance. Wind in Uljato blows from two
main directions; east and west. About 26 % of the time it blows from east (90°) and 15 %
of time from west (270 °) at both 40 m and 50 m heights. However, prevailing energyproducing direction varies with height. At 50 m height, the most frequent and the most
energy-producing directions are the same (east). However, at 40 m, west is the most
energy producing direction. Unlike Uljato, Hotel Safid experiences winds only from
south-south west (202.5°-225°). The most frequent and the most energy producing
directions are the same. Figures 16-17 and 18-19 show wind direction as % percent of
total energy and % of total time in Uljato and Hotel Safid respectively.

Figure 16. Wind speed direction as percent of total energy in Uljato (left)
Figure 17. Wind speed direction as percent of total time in Uljato (right)

25

Wind Shear Wind shear coefficient of a site is an important parameter because it impacts cyclic loading on turbine blades and energy calculations (Ray. These values are in the range of values American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) specified for sites with low bushes and few trees which represent actual site conditions at these 26 .4. Average wind shear coefficient is 0.2 for Uljato and 0.Figure 18. Wind direction as percent of total energy in Hotel Safid (left) Figure 19. 40 m.11 for Hotel Safid as shown in Table 7. Wind direction as percent of time in Hotel Safi (right) 2. & McGowan. Rogers. 2006). 1994) as shown by Equation 3 ?= ?2 log10 ?1 ?2 log10 ?1 … (3) Measured annual average velocities at 50 m. and 30 m heights are used to determine the average wind shear coefficient representing these sites. The actual vertical wind shear exponent is calculated using the power law (Janardan & Nelson.2.

22 0.35 9.75 8.11 Table 7.20 0.84 5.60 0.10 6. Both sites experienced a higher wind shear coefficient during the night on a daily basis and during winter on a seasonal basis. Figures 20 and 21 show seasonal and diurnal variations of wind shear coefficient for both sites.19 0.stations.09 0. H (m) 50 40 30 α50/40= α40/30= α50/30= αave= Hotel Safid V(m/s) 6.13 0. Average wind shear coefficients in Uljato and Hotel Safid Figure 20.11 Uljato 0.18 0.05 8. Monthly variation of average wind shear coefficient 27 .

Figure 22 and 23 show the actual and fitted Weibull frequency of occurrence of wind speed in Uljato and Hotel Safid at 50 m.Figure 21. Uljato wind speed frequency distribution at 50 m 28 . wind speed distributions were created. Wind Speed Distribution To better understand the wind resource and estimate the energy production in Hotel Safid and Uljato. Daily variation of average wind shear coefficient 2.2.5. Figure 22.

2000) was chosen in Windograph to calculate Weibull shape factor k and the scale factor c for both sites.54 (NREL. Maximum likelihood algorithm as shown in Equations 4 and 5 (Seguro & Lambert. Hotel Safid wind speed frequency distribution at 50 m Windograph software is used to find the best fit to the histograms of wind speed distribution. Table 8 shows the results of calculations for both sites. 2007). An average Weibull shape factor for Afghanistan is modeled to be 1.1 to 2. 29 . ?=( ? ∑? ?=1 ?? ln(??) ? ∑? ?=1 ?? − ∑? ?=1 ln(??) −1 ) … (4) ? ? 1 ? = ( ∑ ?? ? ) … (5) ? ?=1 Where vi is the wind speed and n is the number of nonzero wind speed data points.7 and has a range of 1.Figure 23.

the wind speed at these sites as seen in the above frequency graphs peak twice. This type of wind regime is not very typical but seen in places where summer and winter winds are very different (Burton. Sharp .Parameter Weibull Shape Factor Weibull Scale Factor R-square Uljato 1. 30 . Weibull parameters for measured wind speed at 50 m height Surprisingly. The shape factors k1 and k2 together with scale factors c1 and c2 and coefficients f1 and f2 are determined using Equation 6 as shown below ?? (?1 −1) ? = ?1 ∗ (? ) 1 ?1 ∗ (? ) ∗ ? 1 ? (?1 ) −(( ? ) ) ?1 ?? (?2 −1) +?2 ∗ (? ) 2 ?2 ∗ (? ) ∗ ? ? (?2 ) −(( ? ) ) 2 ?2 … (6) The curve-fitting tool in Matlab was used to determine the parameters mentioned above to find the best fit for the wind speed distribution. Figure 24 shows the measured distribution together with the corresponding bi-Weibull distribution. & Bossanyi.83842 Table 8. 2001).51 6.17 0. Table 9 shows the calculated parameters with the R-squared of the regression.93625 Hotel Safid 1.99 0. Jenkins. This type of wind regime is better modeled by a bi-Weibull frequency distribution function with different scale and shape factors in two seasons.76 10.

39 0.08 R-square 0. 40m.61 0.2.25 k1 2.46 9.74 f2 0.Parameters Hotel Safid Uljato f1 0.39 c1 5.04 3.35 k2 3. Bi-Weibull parameters for wind speeds at 50 m in Uljato and Hotel Safid Figure 24.18 2. the wind power density at 30m.65 2.6. Actual and bi-Weibull wind speed distribution frequency 2.41 c2 14. Wind Power Density Using measured air temperatures. According to NREL’s classification of wind power in Afghanistan. 50 m and 70 m turbine hub heights is calculated and presented in Table 10. the wind power density at 70 m in Uljato is considered “Good” and falls 31 . and calculated average wind shear coefficients.92 0.97 Improvement 9% 3% Table 9.

This is an appropriate assumption since areas surrounding these measurement towers are pretty flat with similar topography for multiple turbines to be installed and the size of these plants if ever built would not be very big. 2007). 40 m and 50 m height 2.3. Power output of the potential wind farms is modeled using 10 minute-interval wind speed. Height (m) Uljato Hotel Safid WPD (W/m2) 30 40 273 317 682 741 50 357 70 426 798 879 Table 10. wind direction and air temperatures. The composite power curve is created using power curves from commercial pitchregulated wind turbines in the range of 275 kW – 1 MW which are deemed feasible for installation in Afghanistan (TETRA TECH.under class 4 wind resource. Only one wind speed measurement is used to characterize the plant output at Uljato and Hotel Safid sites. Hotel Safid and Uljato wind power densities at 30 m. 2009). Wind Plant Output Hourly energy yields (MWh/MW) of potential wind power plants are calculated by converting time-series wind speed data to power output of wind turbines. Each turbine’s power output was 32 . Wind power densities at all heights in Hotel Safid are considered “Excellent” and fall under class 6 and 7. together with the composite power curve of a 630 KW wind turbine with a rotor diameter of 48 m as shown in Figure 25. Wind class 4 and above are deemed appropriate for wind farm development (NREL.

15 m/s. Next. rated and cut-out wind speeds of 3 m/s.averaged over a 0. 630 KW wind turbine composite power curve The process of converting time-series wind speed into power output starts with calculating the wind speed at the desired turbine hub height. The turbine has cut-in. This adjustment is necessary when using turbine power curves developed for 33 .2 and 0. respectively. Output at 70 m hub height is calculated for Uljato and Hotel Safid wind farms to increase energy capture. and 25 m/s. ℎ2 ? ?2 = ?1 ∗ [ ] ℎ1 Where v1 and v2 are wind speeds at 50 m and 70 m. Figure 25. wind speed is adjusted to account for the difference in local and standard air densities. Wind speed at 50 m height is converted to wind speeds at 70 m using power law (Equation 3) with wind shear coefficients of 0.1 for Uljato and Hotel Safid respectively. h1 =50 m and h2 =70 m and α is the wind shear coefficient.5 m/s wind speed bin and the averaging process was performed over a range of air densities.

22g kg/m3.034 … (7) (Kg/m3) Where: z is the site elevation above sea level (m) T is 10-min average air temperature (K) Equation 8 (Wan. & Orwig.8 % in Uljato and 4. Equation 7 (AWS Scientific. Ela.05 ?10 ??? = (? 10 ??? ? ) ???(?)∗−0. 1997) is used to calculate 10-min average air density for the wind farm sites from measured air temperature assuming a standard sea level air pressure.5 % in Hotel Safid when adjusted for local air density. 353.air density at seal level of ρo = 1.225 kg/m3 Annual average wind speed at 70 m is reduced about 1. 34 . Higher loss in Hotel Safid is due to its higher elevation. 2010) is used to adjust the wind speeds at 70 m hub height for air density 1 ?10 ??? 3 ? = ?10 ??? ∗ ( ) … (8) ?0 Where: ?10 ??? is the 10 min-average air density calculated from measured air temperature ?10 ??? is the 10 min-average measured wind speed in m/s ?0 is the sea level air density equal to 1.

Average wake loss for both sites is about 5 %. both directions are the same (southwest). This method is developed by AWS Truewind based on actual data from wind farms installed in the United States. Equation 9 (AWS Truewind. wake losses very much depend on wind farm layout. Although. In addition. ???? is the maximum assumed wake loss when the wind direction is perpendicular to the prevailing wind direction. In Uljato the most frequent wind direction (east) is opposite to the most energy producing direction (west). It is assumed to be 9 %. It is 90 degrees in Uljato and 225 degrees in Hotel Safid. It is assumed to be 4 %. In Hotel Safid. local topography and wind regimes. Loss factors estimated using the above equation also accounts for such losses as blade soiling and icing. 2009) is used to calculate wake loss for each 10 min-interval wind speed. 35 . these estimates will be appropriate for Uljato and Hotel Safid farms. the wind speed is adjusted for wake losses as a function of wind direction relative to the prevailing wind direction.Next. the above equation is developed to estimate wake losses in sites where there is only one prevailing wind direction or the most frequent wind direction is the same as the most energy-producing one. ?10 ??? is the 10 min average measured wind direction ???? is the prevailing wind direction from the north direction. ?10 ??? = ???? + (???? − ???? ) ∗ sin(?10 ??? − ???? )2 … (9) Where: ???? is the minimum assumed wake loss when the wind direction is aligned or opposite to the prevailing wind direction.

To avoid this.86 ?(?) = { 630 0 ? < 3 ?/? ? 3 ≤ ? < 13 ?/? … (10) ? 13 ?/? ≥ ? ≥ 25 ?/? ? > 25 ?/? Figure 26.956 ∗ (?)^2 − 178. The following piece-wise equation (Equation 10) is obtained with a R2 of 99 %. Actual and fitted power curve of the 630KW wind turbine Losses associated with increase in turbulence intensity from the reference turbulence intensity of the turbine power curve is not quantified since the information on 36 . The fitted equation gives power values more than 630 KW in the range of 13 m/s to 14. the rated wind speed is moved to 13 m/s instead of 15 m/s. A 3rd degree polynomial curve was fitted to the binned data for the region from the cut-in wind speed of 3 m/s to the rated wind speed of 15 m/s (Figure 26). the composite power curve of the 630 KW wind turbine is converted to a continuous function of wind speed.46 ∗ (?) + 297.To convert the air density and wake adjusted time-series wind speeds into 10mintue average power yield in MWh/MW of wind farm installed capacity. 0 −1.2465 ∗ (?)^3 + 31.5 m/s.

“Development of Eastern Regional Wind Resource and Wind Plant Output Datasets” by AWS Truewind 2010 4 “Development of Wind Energy Meteorology and Engineering for Siting and Design of Wind Energy Projects in Afghanistan” by TETRA TECH 2009 3 37 .range of turbulence intensities of the power curve is not available and both sites have relatively low annual average turbulence intensities. Table 11 summarizes calculated and assumed losses for Uljato and Hotel Safid wind farms. Calculated and assumed wind farm losses for Hotel Safid and Uljato Final results include hourly average power output and annual average net AC wind power and net capacity factors for Hotel Safid and Uljato wind farms.0% 4. Figure 27 and 28 show seasonal variation of net capacity factors and annual average daily net energy yield of both wind farms.4% Density adjustment 2. Table 12 also gives typical annual capacity factors of wind power plants around the world (IEA.7% Availability4 Total Table 11. 2013).0% 13.0% 21.0% 13. Table 12 shows net annual energy production (AEP) and net capacity factor for both sites. Loss Category Uljato Hotel Safid Wake effects 5.0% 4. Other losses such as electrical losses and wind turbine and grid unavailability losses are applied to the final power output.43% 22.2% Electrical3 3.0% 3.

4 Uljato 2.752-3. Annual average daily net energy yield of Hotel Safid and Uljato wind power plants 38 . Net annual energy production and capacity factors for Hotel Safid and Uljato wind power plants and typical capacity factor around the world Figure 27.Site AEP (MWh) CF (%) Hotel Safid 3.709 42.6 1. Monthly net capacity factors of Hotel Safid and Uljato win power plants Figure 28.418 27.066 20-35 World Typical Table 12.

Modeled data agree well with measured data. measured GHI from the Uljato site. is also given.3 kWh of solar radiation per square meter of horizontal surface on a clear day with a standard deviation of 0. Figure 30 shows resource map of GHI for Afghanistan. This corresponds to an annual average Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) of 1. Annual GHI for Herat and Balkh provinces are 1726 kWh/m2 and 1967 kWh/m2 respectively. 39 .2. 2007). Figure 29. Solar Resource Characteristics Afghanistan receives on average about 5. Figure 29 shows seasonal variation of GHI for Afghanistan (NREL. In addition. which is about 40 km east of OAMS.84 kWh/m2/day and 2.42 kWh.38 kWh/m2/day.4. Monthly global horizontal irradiance (GHI) in Afghanistan Tables 13 and 14 show daily and annual average GHI data for OAMS and OAHR. for comparison reasons. National average seasonal maximum and minimum GHI are 7.935 kWh/m2.

82 4.Figure 30.751 Table 13. OAHR annual and daily average GHI Figures 31 and 32 show seasonal variation of GHI for OAMS and OAHR by available datasets.80 Daily Average (kWh/m2/day) Annual Average (kWh/m2/year) 1.383 Annual Average (kWh/m2/year) 1.763 1.965 SOLAR RADIATION Table 14.86 4.83 4.378 5. Figure 33 depicts typical daily solar radiation profile on a horizontal 40 .840 2.759 1.041 5.963 1.015 1. Map of annual global horizontal irradiance (GHI) for Afghanistan SOLAR RADIATION SUNY Model NASA SSE Model NREL CSR Model NREL TMY Data Uljato Measured Data 4.713 1.520 5. OAMS annual and daily average GHI SUNY Model (kWh/m2/day) NASA SSE Model (kWh/m2/day) NREL CSR Model (kWh/m2/day) HERAT TMY (kWh/m2/day) Daily Average (kWh/m2/day) 5.69 4.773 1.

740 W/m2 and 664 W/m2 are annual average peaks in OAHR and OAMS at noon.surface in Herat (OAHR) and Mazar-e-Sharif (OAMS) International Airports. Figure 31. Annual average monthly GHI at OAMS by various models Figure 32. Annual average monthly GHI at OAHR by various models 41 .

availability and interconnection losses such as inverter and transformer. refer to PVWatts 42 . For a detailed proportion of losses from each category.7 ° N) is calculated using TMY datasets from OAMS and OAHR.217 ° N) and OAMS (36.Figure 33. soiling. Loss from shading is not included.20. Pgdc in KWdc is then converted to net AC (Pacn) output after applying an overall derate factor of 77 % which is NREL’s old (before 2014) default value for grid connected PV systems with crystalline modules and is a good approximate for conditions in Afghanistan. Derate factor account for PV module nameplate derate. DC and AC wiring losses.5.2013) software is used to calculate PV array outputs. diodes and connections. Solar PV Plant Output NREL’s System Advisor Model (SAM 9. Hourly gross DC (Pgdc) output (accounting for effects of cell temperature) of a fixed 1000 KWdc PV array made up of 250 W Sharp NU-Q250W4 panels with a 15. Annual average daily global horizontal irradiance at OAMS and OAHR 2.3 % efficiency facing south tilted at an angle equal to the latitude of OAHR (34. mismatch of PV modules in the array.

????? – 20 ????? = ?? + ( ) ∗ ?? … (11) 0.5 % /°C.php 43 . the cell temperature is calculated using Equation 11 (Messenger & Ventre.8 Where Gt = the incident solar radiation on the tilted surface of the array (W/m2) Ta = the ambient temperature in °C TNOCT = the nominal operating cell temperature of the PV module and is 49 °C for most PV modules 5 http://pvwatts.website5. Hourly incident radiation on the tilted surface from measured global radiation is calculated using Homer’s time-series import option. Homer uses algorithms developed by Erbs.nrel. 2003) to account for DC power loss or gain due to an increase or decrease in temperature of PV cells from the reference cell temperature at Standard Test Conditions (STC) of 25 °C. Next. Net AC output of a PV array using measured hourly GHI and ambient temperature in 2012 from Uljato is calculated for a similar fixed 1000 KW dc PV system installed at latitude tilt (36. The temperature coefficient of power is taken -0. More details on how SAM calculates incident radiation on the plane of array from horizontal radiation and cell temperature to account for temperature coefficient of power are given in the Help section of the software.gov/pvwatts. Klein and Duffie (1982) to estimate the horizontal diffuse and beam portions of the GHI to model plane of the array radiation.7° N) facing south using procedures adopted by NREL’s PVWatts hourly simulation model.

an overall derate factor of 77 % is applied to gross DC output (Pgdc).gov/pvwatts.nrel. Further procedures include decomposing the overall derate factor to pre-inverter and inverter losses to account for inverter part-load efficiencies. These steps are explained in Help section of PVWatts Calculator6. Each system requires about 16.000 m2 of land.Cell temperatures are then used to calculate gross DC output (Pgdc) using the Equations 12 and 13 as shown below ???? = ?? ∗ ???0 ∗ (1 + Ƴ (????? – ???? )) 1000 ???? = 0.008 ∗ ?? 2 ∗ ???0 ∗ (1 + Ƴ (????? – ???? )) 1000 ??? ?? > 125 ? … (12) ?2 ??? ?? ≤ 125 ? … (13) ?2 Where Pdco = the installed DC capacity (KW) Ƴ = the temperature coefficient for power taken -0. 2013).5 %/°C Tcell = the cell temperature in °C Tref =standard test condition (STC) reference temperature of 25 °C To calculate net AC output. 6 http://pvwatts.php 44 . Table 15 shows annual net energy yields and net capacity factors for solar PV power plants. Table 15 also gives typical annual capacity factors of solar PV power plants around the world (IEA.

752 10-20 Table 15. Maximum energy yield at noon in Herat and Balkh are determined to be 0. The difference in energy production of Balkh PV arrays could be due to modeling approaches like the variable inverter efficiency.4 876-1.51 MWh/MW of installed capacity respectively.482 1.3 14. Figure 34. Net annual energy production and capacity factors for Hotel Safid and Uljato solar PV power plants and typical capacity factor around the world The PV array in Herat produces about 10 % higher energy than the one in Balkh due to higher solar resource.339 1.260 CF (%) 17 15. Figures 34 and 35 show monthly net capacity factors and annual average diurnal AC output of the PV arrays respectively.Site OAHR OAMS Uljato World Typical AEP (MWh/MW) 1.57 MWh/MW and 0. Monthly net capacity factor for solar PV power plants in Balkh and Herat 45 .

Figure 35. Annual average diurnal AC power output of solar PV power plants in Balkh and Herat 46 .

3. it takes into account generation from domestic hydro and thermal sources. all of these provinces would be 47 . In spite of this. Kabul demand for example is served both by imports from Uzbekistan and domestic hydro and thermal power plants. However. ELECTRICITY DEMAND The only available record of time-dependent electricity consumption in Afghanistan is the measured gross power production of domestic plants and import lines from 2006 through 2011 (AEIC. such as higher load factors in Herat and Balkh provinces due to greater industrial activity and higher and longer summer demand due to their higher annual average temperatures and thus increased use of air conditioning. 2012). The power network in Balkh province is part of North East Power System (NEPS) that also serves many other provinces including Kabul in an islanded fashion. it is assumed that the proposed solar and wind farms in Balkh and Herat Provinces will be connected to grids with similar temporal load characteristics as the one in Kabul. Second. For the purpose of this study. Balkh demand was served by imported power from Uzbekistan and Herat demand was served by power imported from Turkmenistan and Iran. Balkh and Herat. Herat on the other hand has its own power system. there exist some obvious consumptions differences between Kabul. First. Kabul temporal demand could be a reasonable proxy for demand in other provinces for two main reasons.

1 and 3. The minimum load of ADP is 19% of its peak demand.760 hours in a year. An Average Demand Profile (ADP) is created using Kabul demand data from 2010 and 2011 to be used in the analyses in section 4. Served demand is reported to be around 90 % of actual peak demand (Fichtner. 3. temporal characteristics and other parameters of Kabul demand during 2010 and 2011 is explained in sections 3. 48 . Hourly demand data from each year are normalized to the peak value and averaged over both years for all 8. Seasonal Profile Table 16 shows annual average daily energy. It is important to mention that these load factors are calculated from load data that do not necessarily meet 100 % of actual peak demands. the ADP is scaled to obtain the corresponding hourly demand data. Thus.1.interconnected in the future and the single demand profile would be created dominated by Kabul consumption – as Kabul is by far the most populous region in the country. The reason for a reduction in load factor in 2011 is an increase in the capacity of imported power in winter of 2011 which is also the period of highest demand.2. A gross load factor (since demand data used is in the form of gross power plant production) of 55% is achieved when using the ADP as a demand profile. 2013). maximum and minimum power. for a given peak demand. and load factor for Kabul. To better understand ADP.

Parameter 2011 2010 Average (MWh/d) 4. One of the main reasons for higher winter electric consumption could be electric heating.20% Table 16.90% 56.249 3. Load histogram for 2010 and 2011 Average 2010 gross electricity demand in winter (October-March) in Kabul was 35 % higher than summer (April-September) demand. Loads less than 10 % of the annual peak happen only for 1 hour in 2010 and 2 hours in 2011.345 Average (MW) 177 139 Peak (MW) 335 248 Minimum (MW) 20 6 Load Factor 52. Figure 36. Summer demand peaks in 49 . Kabul Province demand statistics and load factor in 2010 and 2011 Figure 36 shows a load histogram for both years. 50-60 % of the time the load was between 25 to 30 % of the peak for both years. This seasonal variation in demand is validated with 2011 demand and a 5 % increase in noticed.

Lowest electricity consumption is noticed during the months of May and September in Kabul with May being the overall minimum.. Minimum 50 .m. The hour with the lowest demand was 2 a. Demand dependancy on day of the week is assumed to be minimal since electricity is consumed mosty for ligting. The month with the highest annual average demand was December both in 2010 and 2011. Figure 38 shows 2010 and 2011 normalized daily load profiles for Kabul. Kabul province average monthly demand in 2010 and 2011 3. This characteristics is observed thoughout the year. and 8 p.m. Diurnal Profile The load profile in Kabul Province is bimodal.2. Summer peaks in Herat and Balkh are about 82 % and 87 % of annual peak respectively.m. On average the hours with the highest electricity demand in 2011 were 8 a.August and is about 63 % of overall peak. This figure was about 47 % in 2010. Minimum average daily demand in 2011 was about 53 % of daily peak. Figure 37 shows annual average monthly demand for 2010 and 2011 in Kabul. Figure 37. cooking and heating as seen from the time of daily peak.

Figure 38.2011 annual average daily demand profile 51 . Kabul 2010 .daily load is higher in Herat and Balkh provinces since these provinces have higher load factors.

Seasonal and Daily Correlation As noted in the previous section. the Afghan hydro resource also peaks in the spring and early summer months.4. the wind resource in Uljato for the months of October through March is higher than April through September which closely matches the demand. 2013). 52 . existing and future hydropower plants produce 100 of their rated power capacity in the months of May and June with the lowest production coming in January (Fichtner. The goal of this section is to quantify the variability of wind and solar resources in Balkh and Herat provinces by 1) comparing their daily and seasonal profiles with ADP 2) analyzing their impacts on load duration curves and 3) determining their penetration and curtailment levels under various peak demands using ADP. However. flexibility of other units in the system. demand for electricity is higher in winter (October through March) than summer (April through September). On average. RESOURCE VARIABILITY The capacity of wind and solar power plants depends highly on the correlation of availability of wind and solar with power demand.1. available storage and interconnection and the share of variable renewables. In addition to wind and solar resources. This period of high demand does not coincide with the strongest period of the wind resource in Herat or with peak solar radiation anywhere in the country. 4.

Power output of solar PV plants plays little role in meeting peak daily demand since the peak demand occurs during the evenings. Figure 41 and 42 depicts daily profiles of demand versus power production of solar PV and wind plants. while wind power peaks during June through August. This is true for Herat as well. 53 . This difference in winter and summer winds causes the wind resource to not depend on time of day during a year. a period of high wind power occurs during mid-day through the evening. Seasonal production profile (% of nameplate capacity) of Salma (Herat) and Mahipar (Kabul) hydropower plants are compared with solar and wind power profiles in Balkh and Herat respectively. electricity demand is highest in the evenings with another lower peak in the mornings. Hotel Safid wind power complements Salma hydropower supply pretty well since hydro power peaks during March through June. solar PV experiences the least seasonal variation. while hydro experiences the most. Of the three power plant types. During summer. Hotel Safid and Uljato wind farms would produce more power in the mornings than evenings during the months of November through March. On a daily basis.Figures 39 and 40 show seasonal variations of potential wind and solar PV power plants together with electricity demand and hydro power plants.

Figure 39. Seasonal variation of intermittent renewables and electricity demand in Balkh Figure 40. Seasonal variation of intermittent renewables and electricity demand in Herat 54 .

This method simply subtracts hourly power produced from solar PV or wind power plants or a combination of 55 . 2014) is used.Figure 41. To understand the effects of Balkh and Herat solar PV and wind power on ADP. Residual Load Duration Curves The type and geographic location of intermittent power sources could have different impacts on the remaining load requirements. & Luderer. Brecha. Annual average daily profile of demand versus wind and solar in Balkh 4. the method of Residual Load Duration Curves (RLDC) (Ueckerdt.2. Annual average daily profile of demand versus wind and solar in Herat Figure 42.

The greatest contribution of Uljato wind is reducing operational hours of near peak load. their contribution in meeting various types of load such as peak. Figures 43 and 44 show residual load duration curves of ADP for 300 MW peak after introducing 50 MW solar PV power and 50 MW wind power. If synergistic effects of solar PV and wind are considered. One can easily understand the temporal impact of renewables on the demand profile by comparing load duration curves (LDC) with RLDC. Herat combined solar and wind would contribute more in reducing the baseload. However. cyclic (intermediate) or baseload differ. Figure 45 shows residual load duration curves of ADP for 300 MW peak demand in Herat and Balkh when both sources are connected to the grid.them from the required demand for that hour to get the residual load. This is true for Herat solar plants as well. has a significant impact on reducing cyclic and base loads since it is strongest in the summer and in the afternoons and evenings. Herat wind. It has the same effect as solar PV for cyclic loads. The resulting residual load is then sorted from highest to lowest to obtain the residual load duration curve. Uljato wind reduces all three types of loads. 50 MW solar and 50 MW wind in Herat would have the same effect as 50 MW wind and 50 MW solar in Balkh in reducing near peak loads. on the other hand. 56 . Although Herat wind and solar PV power plants achieve higher annual average capacity factors or number of full load hours than the ones in Balkh. solar power plants reduce cyclic loads but not afternoon minimum loads or morning and evening peaks loads. In both locations.

Residual load duration curve (RLDC) of Balkh grid after introducing solar PV and wind power independently 57 . Residual load duration curves (RLDC) of Herat grid after introducing solar PV and wind power independently Figure 44.Figure 43.

In this section. Penetration and Curtailment Levels Wind or solar PV penetration is the ratio of total annual utilized power from these power plants divided by total annual demand of the grid. 100 MW. Hourly utilized power is calculated by subtracting solar and wind power from replaceable demand (actual demand minus minimum demand or base load7). 58 . Residual load duration curves (RLDC) of Balkh and Herat grids after introducing solar PV and wind power together 4. In the meantime. divided by the total annual wind or solar PV power generated. penetration increases as the installed capacity increases. penetration and curtailment curves of three sizes of wind and solar PV power plants (50 MW. for a given demand.3. Hourly curtailment is calculated using the same procedure as utilized power whenever production from solar or wind is higher than replaceable demand.Figure 45. It is technically and economically infeasible to turn on and off some power plants to accommodate more renewables. Curtailment on the other hand is the ratio of total annual wind or solar power that is not used. and 150 MW) are created for four ADP peak demand 7 It is assumed that renewables can only replace up to 81 % of the load at any time.

400 MW and 500MW). Results are presented in Figures 46 through 53. excess power from solar PV and wind power plants could be used to 59 .(200 MW. For the rest of the combinations. For example. Grid demand values are roughly based on estimated future values for Herat and Balkh power systems (Fichtner. it is wise to take advantage of the modular nature of solar PV and wind turbines. they have higher curtailment losses. In addition. Wind power plants would achieve higher penetration levels than solar PV in Balkh and Herat Provinces for a given installed capacity and grid demand. Installed capacity could be increased in parallel with increase in demand or export opportunities. Wind power curtailment losses are higher in Hotel Safid than Uljato. 2013). However. The highest curtailment loss of about 23 % occurs when installing 150 MW wind power plants when the peak demand is 200 MW. Although wind power plants could achieve higher penetrations levels than solar PV. It is unlikely to see a cumulative installed capacity of solar PV and wind turbines in the near future that would surpass limits of significant curtailment losses. curtailment losses are about 10 % or less. This fact is due to mismatch of wind resource with demand especially during the night times. Different grid demands are considered due to the growing demand of grid segments in Herat and Balkh. 300 MW. Both solar PV and wind power plants in Herat achieve higher penetration levels than the ones in Balkh. one could look at Figures 46 and 47 and notice that Balkh wind power plant achieves penetration levels of 12 % to 30 % for the range of installed capacities at 200 MW peak demand and decreases almost linearly to 5 % to 15 % at 500 MW peak.

Figure 46. Balkh wind power penetration Figure 47.complement hydropower plants especially during summer months by pumping back water to the reservoirs during the night when the load is minimal. Balkh wind power curtailment losses 60 .

Figure 48. Balkh solar PV power curtailment 61 . Balkh solar PV power penetration Figure 49.

Herat wind power penetration Figure 51.Figure 50. Herat wind power curtailment losses 62 .

Herat solar PV power penetration Figure 53. Herat solar PV power curtailment losses 63 .Figure 52.

Net capacity factors and net annual energy yields for the power plants in Balkh and Herat are summarized in Table 18. 8 Parameters are taken from Afghanistan’s Power Sector Master Plan prepared by Fichtner. In addition. higher installation capital costs are one of the barriers in deploying these power plants. Table 17 shows economic parameters 8 used in this section. The good news is that the cost of wind turbines and PV modules are going down as these systems are installed more and more. COST OF ENERGY GENERATION Zero fuel cost is one of the main advantages of power generation from renewable sources such as solar and wind. To make calculations simple. The goal of this section is to estimate power generation cost in USD/kWh and AFG per kWh assuming an exchange rate of 48 AFS/USD from solar PV and wind power plants in Balkh and Herat provinces. the cost of energy generation for a 1 MW power plant is calculated and it is assumed that generation over the life of the projects remains the same as the first year generation. However. no replacement cost and inflation is considered.5. 2013. 64 .

9% 42. the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE).Wind Installed Cost Wind Operating Cost Solar PV Installed Cost Solar PV Operating Cost Useful Life Discount Rate $/KW $/KW/Year $/KW $/KW/Year Years 2300 81 3500 63 20 12% Table 17. is estimated using Equation 14 as shown below.0% 27.3% 14. Net annual energy production and capacity factors of solar PV and wind power plants in Balkh and Herat Energy generation cost. ???? = ?????? … (14) ?????? Where ?????? = total power plant cost (excluding interconnection or transmission costs) plus the cost of operating the power plants over the project lifetime ?????? = total generated energy over the project lifetime Equation 15 is used to calculate total power plant cost (?????? ). 65 .6% AEP (MWh/MW) 1480 3705 1226 2418 Table 18. Economic parameters used in calculation of electricity generation cost of solar PV and wind power plants in Balkh and Herat provinces Power Plant Herat Solar PV Herat Wind Balkh Solar PV Balkh Wind Capacity Factor 16.

?????? = ??? + ??? ∗ ??&? … (15) Where ??? = Power plant installed cost ??&? = Power plant operating cost ??? = Present value factor Annual operating cost is discounted to find the present value. Table 19 shows the cost of energy for each power plant in Balkh and Herat Provinces. The cheapest energy is generated from the Herat wind power plant while the most expensive is from the Balkh Solar PV plant. 66 . Equation 16 as shown below is used to estimate the present value factor (PVF) of annual operating costs ??? = 1 − (1 + ?)−? … (16) ? Where ? = Discount rate (12 %) ? = project lifetime (20 years) Total generated energy ?????? is calculated simply by multiplying Net Energy Yield given in Table 18 by the project lifetime of 20 years.

877 0.134 6. However.157 7. diesel and imports.060 2.039 1. natural gas. 2013).Power Plant Herat Solar PV Herat Wind Balkh Solar PV Balkh Wind LCOE COE (USD/kWh) (AFG/kWh) 0. Thus. 67 .068 USD/kWh by 2032 (Fichtner. Electricity generation cost of solar PV and wind power plants in Balkh and Herat Optimistic estimates show that generation cost of electricity in Afghanistan would reach 0.554 0. with the help of appropriate policies and declining system costs.433 0. wind power plants have a greater potential to reach grid parity than solar PV. both sources could become economically viable. Calculations are based on power generation from coal.880 Table 19.

Wind power plants in Uljato and Hotel Safid yield annual net capacity factors of 27. Typical global capacity factors of solar PV power plants are in the range of 10 % to 20%. Typical onshore wind power plants around the world achieve capacity factors in the range of 20 % to 35 % with exceptional plants achieving 45 %.34 m/s and 9. CONCLUSION Afghanistan unfortunately has not yet taken advantage of its vast resources of renewable energies such as solar radiation and wind on a scale large enough to meet a significant fraction of its electricity demand.11 m/s and 426 W/m2 and 879 W/m2 respectively. Two of the most promising provinces for renewable energy deployment are Balkh and Herat provinces.726 kWh/m2 and 1. 68 .3 % respectively.6 % and 42. Fixed axis solar PV power plants tilted at angles equal to the latitudes achieve 14 % and 17 % annual net capacity factors including modest losses in Balkh and Herat respectively. Sites with power densities greater than 400 W/m2 are considered commercially viable for wind farm development. Annual average global horizontal solar radiation in Herat and Balkh are 1.6.967 kWh/m2 respectively. Average wind speeds at 50 m and power densities at 70 m in Uljato and Hotel Safid reach 6.

Wind speed diurnal profile varies from month to month and it turns out that on average wind speed in both locations do not quite depend on time of day. intermittent nature. Wind power plants would contribute in reducing near peak and in to some extent peak load and baseload. solar PV can reduce the number of operating hours of power plants responsible for providing cyclic power especially to meet mid-day demands. Hotel Safid on the other hand experiences higher winds in summer. Although these sources alone would not be ideal to be used as the main or only source of electricity supply due to their higher capital costs. Uljato is one of the locations that experiences stronger wind speeds in winter months (November – March). In most developed countries. they could well achieve significant penetration levels in the Afghan grid especially when all of the islanded grid segments are interconnected and could possibly export power. these sources are environmentally friendly sources of power generation and offer power with pretty stable prices.Electricity demand in Afghanistan is highest in the winter while power supplied from wind power plants in most of locations and solar PV power plants everywhere would be highest in the summer. developing countries like Afghanistan still have the opportunity to think ahead and design power systems that could accommodate higher levels of variable power sources as they are still growing and taking shape. For example. In the meantime. On the other hand. requirement for substantial storage and uncertain power supply. In the meantime. the best way to increase share of intermittent renewables in the existing grid is to transform them into more flexible ones. shares of renewables could go 69 . Solar PV and wind power plants in Balkh and Herat have the potential to reduce the load on all types of domestic generation schemes and imports.

longer life of limited domestic fossil fuel resources such as coal and natural gas. and less imports of diesel fuel with rising costs and unfriendly environmental impacts. In the end.higher if the Afghan government sets national targets and designs effective policies. higher solar PV and wind penetration means less reliance on unpredictable and unstable power purchase agreements with neighboring countries. 70 .

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