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NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Monday, September 26, 2016 at 6:00AM ET
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout
the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM. Results released prior to September 20 were among
registered voters. Results among likely voters are denoted with an asterisk below.
Results for the week of September 19, 2016 through September 25, 2016 are among a national sample of 13,598 likely voters (+/1.1%), 3,752 likely Republican voters (+/-2.1%) and 4,731 likely Democratic voters (+/-1.9%). Complete error estimates can be found
in the methodology section below.

TOPLINE RESULTS
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

9/19—9/25*
9/12—9/18*
9/5—9/11
8/29—9/4
8/22—8/28
8/15—8/21
8/8—8/14
8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/18--7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28-1/3

Foreign
Policy
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
5
5
4
5
5
4
5
5
6

The
environment
8
9
9
9
9
8
7
8
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
8
8
8
8

Terrorism
19
15
14
14
16
17
18
20
23
26
23
22
21
21
23
12
12
13
13
12
12
14
14
16
17
19
18
12
13
13
14
16
16
15
17
19
21
23
23

Immigration
8
8
10
7
7
8
7
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
7
7
7
7
6
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
8
8
8

Health
care
14
17
16
17
16
16
15
14
13
13
12
13
13
15
14
17
17
15
16
16
15
16
15
15
14
15
13
15
16
16
16
15
14
16
13
15
13
13
14

Jobs and the
Economy
30
32
32
32
33
32
33
32
30
28
29
29
31
28
29
37
35
36
36
35
36
33
32
32
31
32
32
36
35
35
34
33
34
32
32
33
29
28
27

Education
9
9
10
10
10
9
10
9
8
8
8
9
8
9
9
10
11
10
12
11
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
11
10
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
8
9

Other
6
5
5
6
5
6
5
6
6
7
8
7
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
5
6
5
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
9/19—9/25*
9/12—9/18*
9/5—9/11
8/29—9/4
8/22—8/28
8/15—8/21
8/8—8/14
8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/18—7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2—5/8
4/25—5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Strongly approve
33
32
29
29
30
31
30
32
32
28
27
27
28
30
30
29
27
27
27
28
28
27
26
28
27
28
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
27
25
26
26
23
23

Somewhat approve
19
20
22
22
21
21
22
21
20
21
22
22
22
22
21
22
24
23
23
23
23
24
24
24
23
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
24
23
22
24
22
22
25

Somewhat disapprove
10
11
11
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
12
12
11
12
12
12
12
12
13
13
12
13
13
12
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
14
12
12
12

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
9/19—9/25*
9/12—9/18*
9/5—9/11
8/29—9/4
8/22—8/28
8/15—8/21
8/8—8/14
8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/18---7/24
7/11—7/17

Republican
28
29
30
30
29
29
28
30
30
31
29

Democrat
36
36
34
34
34
35
34
36
36
32
33

Independent
34
34
34
35
36
34
37
32
33
36
36

No answer
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
1

Strongly disapprove
37
36
38
36
36
36
37
35
36
39
38
38
38
35
37
36
37
37
36
35
36
36
37
37
37
35
35
35
36
37
37
39
38
38
40
36
40
42
40

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16—5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 - 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

27
28
28
28
28
29
28
29
28
32
28
28
29
30
29
30
30
31
32
31
31
30
30
31
28
31
33
30

33
34
35
34
35
35
33
34
35
35
36
35
34
34
35
33
36
35
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
32
34

38
37
36
36
36
36
37
35
35
31
35
36
35
35
35
36
32
33
31
33
33
33
33
33
36
33
34
34

2
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2

As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DON’T KNOW FOR
PARTY]
9/19—9/25*
9/12—9/18*
9/5—9/11
8/29—9/4
8/22—8/28
8/15—8/21
8/8—8/14
8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/18—7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4 – 4/10

Republican
Party
36
35
34
31
31
29
31
29
33
32
37
32
33
32
32
33
33
32
31
33
32
32
35
33
33

Democratic
Party
30
29
26
26
28
26
27
29
27
26
26
26
26
29
28
28
26
28
29
28
32
27
27
30
28

Neither
31
33
39
41
40
43
39
40
38
39
34
39
37
36
36
36
37
37
37
36
35
38
35
34
35

No answer
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
3
4
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
1
3
3
3
4

3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

31
31
31
31
32
34
38
34
35
34
33
36
36
37

29
28
28
27
29
28
28
28
30
26
27
26
26
24

38
37
39
41
36
36
33
35
33
37
39
37
36
37

2
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
1
1

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?

9/19—9/25*
9/12—9/18*
9/5—9/11
8/29—9/4
8/22—8/28
8/15—8/21
8/8—8/14
8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/18—7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16– 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8

Hillary
Clinton, the
Democrat
51
50
48
48
48
50
50
51
50
46
46
47
48
49
48
49
48
47
47
48
49

Donald Trump,
the Republican
44
45
44
42
42
42
41
41
42
45
45
44
43
41
42
42
44
45
43
45
44

No
answer
6
6
8
10
10
8
8
8
8
9
9
10
9
10
10
9
9
8
9
7
7

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates for whom would you vote?

9/19—9/25*
9/12—9/18*
9/5—9/11
8/29—9/4
8/22—8/28
8/15—8/21
8/8—8/14
8/1—8/7

Donald
Trump, the
Republican
40
40
40
37
37
38
37
38

Hillary
Clinton, the
Democrat
45
45
42
41
41
43
43
44

Gary
Johnson,
the
Libertarian
10
10
11
12
11
11
11
10

Jill Stein,
the
Green
Party
3
4
4
4
5
5
4
4

No
answer
2
2
3
6
6
4
5
4

7/25—7/31
7/18—7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
6/2—6/5

38
41
40
38
38
36
38
38
40

43
39
39
40
41
42
42
42
39

9
10
10
11
9
9
9
9
9

4
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
4

5
6
7
6
6
7
7
6
8

All in all, how worried are you that you or someone in your family might become a victim of a terrorist attack? Would you say you
are:

9/19—9/25*

Very worried
13

Somewhat
worried
35

Not too worried
35

Not at all
worried
17

No answer
-

In general, how well do you think the U.S. government is doing in reducing the threat of terrorism?

Very well
15

9/19—9/25*

Somewhat
well
37

Not too well
25

Not at all well
22

No answer
1

Do you support or oppose extensive surveillance and security checks in public places, such as stadiums, movie theaters, and
shopping malls, to try to prevent terrorist attacks?

Support
strongly
49

9/19—9/25*

Support
somewhat
33

Oppose
somewhat
11

Oppose
strongly
7

No answer
1

Homosexual
2
3

Bisexual
3
2

Prefer not to
answer
6
7

No answer
1
1

Do you consider yourself to be:

9/19—9/25*
9/12—9/18*

Heterosexual
or straight
89
87

Do you consider yourself to be transgender?

9/19—9/25*
9/12—9/18*

Yes
1
1

No
98
98

No answer
1
1

How much does it matter to you that a candidate shares your religious beliefs?

9/19—9/25*

A great deal
15

Somewhat
25

Not much
23

Not at all
36

No answer
1

How often do you attend religious or worship services, not including weddings and funerals?

9/19—9/25*

More than
once a week
11

Once a
week
23

Once or twice
a month
11

A few times a
year
16

Seldom
21

Never
17

No answer
1

What is your current religion, if any?

9/19—9/25*

Christian/
Protestant/
Methodist/
Lutheran/
Baptist
49

Catholic
20

Mormon
1

Greek or
Russian
Orthodox
1

Jewish
3

Muslim
-

Buddhist
1

Hindu
-

Atheist or
agnostic
10

What are the chances that you will vote in the general election for President in November?

9/19—9/25
9/12—9/18

Absolutely
certain I
will vote
81
81

Large chance
I will vote
9
10

50-50
chance I will
vote
5
5

Small chance I
will vote
2
2

I will not
vote
2
2

No
answer
1
1

Nothing in
particular
10

Other
5

No
answer
1

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of September 19, 2016 through September 25, 2016 was conducted
online among a national sample of 13,598 adults aged 18 and over who are likely to vote. Respondents for this survey were selected from
the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age, race,
sex, education, region, and voter registration status using the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Current Population Survey to reflect
the demographic composition of the United States. An additional smoothing parameter for ideology based on previous Election Tracking interviews
is included. The smoothing parameter was derived from aggregated data on ideology by region collected from previous weeks (May 1-June 26) of
the Weekly Election Tracking poll.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error
can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and
measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate.
The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.1 percentage point for likely voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence
intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in
much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group
Total LVs

Unweighted N
13,598

Plus or minus
1.1

Republican LVs
Democrat LVs
Independent LVs

3,752
4,731
4,992

2.1
1.9
1.8

Male LVs
Female LVs

6,743
6,855

1.4
1.5

18-24 LVs
25-34 LVs
35-44 LVs
45-54 LVs
55-64 LVs
65+ LVs

751
1,290
1,876
2,969
3,602
3,110

4.5
3.5
3.0
2.4
2.1
2.3

White LVs
Black LVs
Hispanic LVs
Other LVs

10,938
1,018
620
1,022

1.2
4.2
5.0
3.9