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CH. Praveen Kumar1, Jothiprakash V2

Research Scholar, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Bombay, Mumbai 400076, India.

Professor, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Bombay, Mumbai 400076, India.
Correspondence E-mail:

The objective of this paper is to evaluate Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) method for
interpolating gridded daily rainfall data over three years of monsoon seasons at meso catchment
scale. Indravati river basin in India is considered as study area. Results are evaluated by estimating
mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (r) and
coefficient of determination (R2) for three monsoon seasons of years 2011, 2012 and 2013. It has
been found that empirical bayesian kriging method is giving better results with less bias and high
1. Introduction
Rainfall is the major input factor for estimating the surface runoff within a catchment. Traditional
rain-gauge stations give accurate rainfall amount but their spatial distribution is sparse. There is a
demand for spatially distributed approach towards rainfall modelling to drive distributed
hydrological models in water resources field. Previous studies have shown that the spatial
variability of precipitation field have an influence on simulated volume of flow, peak flow and
time to peak flow of hydrograph with in the catchment [8; 1]. Hence, interpolation methods have
been used for generating spatially continuous precipitation surface from the point observations of
rainfall to meet the demand from distributed hydrological models [9].
Kriging is the most popular geostatistical interpolation method for creating surface from the point
observations. It is based on the estimation of semivariogram from the given input point map.
Different semivariogram models are available which can be used with kriging method. Several
studies in the literature shows the use of different geostatistical interpolation methods for creating
spatially distributed surface from daily point precipitation data at catchment scale [4; 5; 6; 7; 10].
In the present study gridded daily precipitation data sets for three monsoon seasons of years 2011,
2012 and 2013 is considered to evaluate Empirical bayesian kriging (EBK) method at mesocatchment scale. Results are evaluated with four different performance measures at three monsoon
time periods (overall time period).
2. Materials and Method
2.1 Study area
The study area indravati river basin is a sub basin of the river Godavari, India. The region
boundaries are 800 to 830 6| East and 180 35| to 200 41| North. The indravati basin has an area of
38,848.6453 km2. The highest elevation is 1325 meters. The location map of the indravati basin
along with digital elevation model (DEM) is shown in fig (1).

1: Location of indravati basin with digital elevation model (DEM). Grid points are generated at each center of the pixel of precipitation data and those are considered as stations for this study. 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 Rainfall Grid Stations Monsoon_2011 Monsoon_2012 Monsoon_2013 Fig. . Total 166 grid stations are considered in and around the indravati basin for interpolation purpose. This basin receives majority of rainfall in the monsoon season from June to September months. rainfall grid points used for interpolation and for validation.2: Seasonal precipitation of accumulated daily precipitation at all validation grid stations. This method is evaluated by considering the predicted values at 52 grid stations located within the basin boundary. The location of grid stations used for interpolation and for validation is shown fig (1). The seasonal rainfall at all validation stations is shown in the fig (2). Three monsoon seasons of daily rainfall in the years 2011.25-degree resolution is used to evaluate EBK interpolation method. 2. 2012 and 2013 are considered in this study.2 Precipitation data Precipitatiion (mm) The gridded daily precipitation data provided by India Meteorological Department (IMD) with 0.Fig.

3. Kriging is based on extracting semivariogram from the input point observations. partial sill and range of the semivariogarm. In this method. The semivariogram can be estimated by using power model is shown in eqn (2).. The value of α is varies from 0 to 2. The basic formulation of this method is as follows. the spectrum of semivariograms will be estimated based on the input observations [3]. (1) Where N(h) is number of pairs of input data locations at distance h apart. h is lag size. Semivariogram is a plot of γ(h) versus lag distance (h).3 Geostatistical Interpolation methods Kriging is a well know geostatistical interpolation method for creating a continuous surface from point observations. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Interpolation of daily gridded precipitation data is carried using EBK method. Cross validation technique is used for evaluating interpolation results at all validation points by estimating various performance measures. γ(h) = 1 2 N(h) 2 ∑?(ℎ) ?=1 (Z(i) – Z(i + h)) …. root mean square error (RMSE). (a) (b) Fig. (Note: IMD rainfall is 0.. Z(i) is observed value at location i.250 resolution and EBK rainfall is at 0.. ?(ℎ) = 0 if h= 0 ?(ℎ) = C0 + C1 hα h≠ 0 …. correlation coefficient (r) and coefficient of determination (R2) [2].2.4 Performance criteria The coefficients used in this study to evaluate EBK method are mean absolute error (MAE). C0. The formulation of semivariogram is shown in eqn (1). Empirical Bayesian kriging (EBK). C1 and α are nugget. (b) Empirical Bayesian Kriging. (2) Where γ(h) is the semivariogram.3: The spatial rainfall estimated on 12 July 2013. The spatial distributed rainfall predicted on 12th July 2013 using this method is shown in the fig (3).. Z(i+h) is the value at location (i+h) and h is the lag size. The various accuracy measures of interpolation techniques are estimated and shown in the Table (1).10) . 2. EBK interpolation method is selected in this study. (a) IMD Rainfall.

Interpolated Rainfall The scatter plot of observed daily precipitation at all validation stations versus predicted precipitation using EBK interpolation method is shown in fig (4). (2015). Four different performance measure coefficients are calculated at overall time period to evaluate EBK method. 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 y = 0. H. CONCLUSION The most widely used geostatistical interpolation method namely EBK is used for creating high resolution rainfall using daily gridded precipitation data at meso catchment scale. Table 1: Observed and Predicted daily rainfall mean absolute error (MAE). Labat. EBK is best choice for daily gridded precipitation data sets at meso catchment scale. D.8167 0. Interpolation Method Empirical Bayesian Kriging MAE 0.From table (1). P. In the interpolation methods available in GIS. Hydrological sciences journal. The reason for high accuracy of EBK method is due to the use of iterative procedure for tuning the semivariograms by minimizing the error using observed values using Bayesian method.8167 for overall time period. The value of coefficient of determination (R2) is also shown on the fig (4). A.803 Performance Measures RMSE R R2 1. K. .07 percent.204 R² = 0. Empirical Bayesian kriging method is predicting the observed rainfall values with a confidence of 99. root mean square error (RMSE). 2012 and 2013 are used in this study for creating surfaces using this method. EBK method predicts the input values with less bias and with high confidence values. it can be observed that Empirical Bayesian Kriging method predicts the rainfall with RMSE value of 1.. REFERENCE [1] Garambois. 424-447.. & Dartus.4: Observed daily gridded rainfall at all validation points for monsoon seasons of 2011.9953 0. 2012 and 2013 years.978x + 0. Roux. correlation coefficient (R) and coefficient of determination (R 2) for monsoon seasons of 2011. 60(3).9907 0 100 200 300 Obs. Larnier. Rainfall (mm) Fig. Three monsoon periods of years 2011. D.. 2012 and 2013 years versus rainfall predicted using EBK interpolation method. Characterization of catchment behaviour and rainfall selection for flash flood hydrological model calibration: catchments of the eastern Pyrenees.9907 4..

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