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ISSN 1597 - 8842 Vol. 1 No.

38

Dec 31, 2009 and Q1 2010 Results Review


Issued on May 28, 2010
Contents

Stanbic IBTC Bank Result – Executive Summary 03

The Operating Environment 06

o The Financial Market in 2009 – Regulatory Reality


o The Expectations of Management in 2010 – An Insight

Fundamental Analysis 12
o The Financials Reviewed
o Q1 2010 Snapshot & Salient Indices

Technical Analysis 24

The Analyst Insight 26

ISSN 1597 - 8842 Vol. 1 No. 38

© 2010 www.proshareng.com May 2010 2


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1. Executive Summary
The IBTC Bank Plc 2009 December common year end results recently released in
compliance with the Central Bank of Nigeria uniform accounting year for banks in the
country has been reviewed and outcome of our objective analysis shows that the bank
recorded a level of resilience in some of its fundamentals when compared with some
other banks. However, the impact of the present challenging operating environment is
felt in most of the figures when compared with the preceding year comparable period.

Going by the Bank’s analyst presentation in its December 2008 report


(http://www.proshareng.com/reports/view.php?id=1846), the bank’s claim of a sound
risk management and prudent regime was challenged by the total provisions for loan
loss of N4.541bn made in the financial year.

In the financial year 2009, the post CBN/NDIC special audit carried out in the entire
banking sector saw the bank making provisions for exceptional items to the tune of
N5.905bn (a relatively small amount compared to most quoted bank operations); in its
third results released in November 2009 (a marginal increase by 3% over the
provisions made as at 31st December 2008). This was a feat that was not common in
the entire banking sector where many of the banks made substantial loan loss
provisions which consequently dipped their profits, even with some either having a
narrow escape to profitability or outright loss positions.

The N4.858bn loan loss provisions made in the December 2009 audited account being
reviewed, within the context of its operating environment, could be termed acceptable
and normal since the figures still remained within the limit of historical levels which is
a sharp contrast from what obtained with the loan loss provisions made in some bank’s
common year end audited accounts.

However, there appears to be some disproportionate movements in key trends for


non-performing loans and loan loss provisions as appeared in the books of the bank –
highlighted by the expected higher loan loss provisions arising from an increase in
non-performing loans which was not evident.

The non-performing loans levels of the bank at the close of the 2009 December
accounting year rose by 21.19% from N15.537bn of the preceding accounting period
to N18.830bn as at 31st December, 2009. This consequently pushed up the non-
performing loans to total loans ratios to 14.10% from 13.70% of the preceding year.

While the better Capital Adequacy Ratio achieved by the bank remains commendable
and a testament to its focused management of the balance sheet; a closer look at the
loan portfolio should help it curtail the consequent impact of loss provisions on the
bank’s profitability and returns to its shareholders.

The decline in profitability of the bank in the period under review could be attributed
mainly to the challenging operating environment in the banking sector which to a very
large extent affected banking business generation capabilities in the period. Also, the
impact of the provisions for loan losses made by the bank on its profitability could not
be overlooked since it represented a burden on earnings.

According to the management, other factors that contributed to the decline in the
profitability of the bank include:
Low level of activities in the capital market which adversely affected the revenues
of the capital markets related businesses;
Pricing pressure in Pension Fund Administration (PFA) related business;

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sharply lower capital market (impact of margin loans);
improved confidence in the money market as a result of an Interbank guarantee in
the latter part of the year.
significant growth in deposit liabilities
diversified business, strong capital and liquidity positions;
efficient repositioning of the balance sheet which resulted in decrease in interest
expense; and
improved credit loss ratio.

The bank recorded a staff cost ratio closing within its historical profile to reflect its
continued investment in people, skills and infrastructure.

Recall that in its December 2008 audited accounts, Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc noted that
the tougher trading conditions and decreased liquidity in Q2 2010 of the said year
adversely affected the business segments that derive their revenues primarily from
capital market activities. According to the management, the adversely impacted
business segments are:
Assets Management,
Stock broking,
Corporate finance due to limited capital raising opportunities, and
Custody services

This trend continued in the December 2009 audited accounts presented. In the year
2010, this is expected to abate as the market recovery momentum (+26% ASI YTD
appreciation) appears sustainable (baring any policy inhibitions). Needless to add, the
bank needs to re-calibrate the rate of contribution from this risk-sensitive side of the
market it plays in; as a fraction of its revenue base.

Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc posted a net profit of N8.138bn to record a decline of -
31.14% from N11.99bn profit made in the preceding accounting year to December
31st, 2008. Despite this, the bank made good its promise of rewarding investors
as it paid out 30k dividend per share, representing 67.77% dividend payout ratio from
43k earnings per share attained.

The path of caution taken by the bank by not embarking on scrip issue which could
have increased its shares in issue is seen as a welcome move, considering the actions
taken by its quoted peers – ostensibly drawing reference to its internal decision
making model. This we believe will serve as leverage for the bank’s future potential at
giving a decent return to the shareholders in future, baring any major crisis.

The bank sustained this profitable outlook in its Q1 2010 - March 31st, 2010 un-audited
results with N2.558bn profit after tax - a marginal decline of -2.52% when compared
with N2.655bn profit recorded in the preceding year.

Going through the bank management’s 2009 December audited report presentation to
analysts - http://www.proshareng.com/reports/view.php?id=2602 - a fundamental
analysis was conducted in section 3 of this report to provide a better appreciation of
the banks realities and prospects.

The analysis of both results revealed an encouraging trend in the relationship between
interest income and interest expense components of the bank. The two inversely
related financial statement items showed that interest income grew in higher
magnitude above the interest expense, hence a positive variance of 12.28% and
26.34% for the audited and first quarter results respectively.

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Equally observed was the prudent and conservative nature of the bank’s risk
management could be seen in the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of 35% which
remains one of the strongest in the industry. Further improvement on its risk
management will further enhance the bank’s capital adequacy ratio profile in the
coming years.

The technical analysis conducted in the fourth section of this report showed that for
sixteen months to May 14th, 2010, Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc share price recorded
+6.37% appreciations to close at N11.02 from N10.36 it closed at the end of January
2nd, 2009 trading session. With this trend, IBTC Bank Plc emerged in the class of banks
that have recorded price appreciations above their January 2nd, 2009 price levels,
coming fifth in the sector.

Also, the bank’s share price in the year 2010 to date appreciated impressively by
+54% to close at N11.02 from N7.16 it closed as at 4th January 2010, the bank came
second in the year to date performance ranking coming after the 84% attained by
Sterling Bank Plc, the highest in the industry.

As at 14th May, 2010, Stanbic IBTC Bank traded above its 20 days, 50 days and 200
days moving averages of N10.22, N10.20 and N8.32 respectively. This shows
indications of a bullish trend in the bank shares.

We are of the view that with the stable board and management enjoyed by the bank
and unencumbered by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) policy on banks’ Managing
Director/CEO; the bank is set to reap the dividends such continuity could afford,
ceteris paribus.

http://www.proshareng.com/investors/company.php?ref=IBTC

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2. The Operating Environment
Since the assumption of office by the incumbent Central Bank of Nigeria Governor,
Sanusi Lamido Sanusi - there have been a wholesome paradigm shift in the banking
industry on many fronts as things appear never to return to the old ways again.

Prominent among the changes that have come into the banking industry is need for
strict adherence to sound risk management beyond a cliché, the adoption of world
class standards in disclosures, and the enthronement of a regulator-sensitive industry.

To achieve the shift in mindset it sought to create, the CBN took a series of steps
which is well documented in our treatise - The BULL IN THE CHINA SHOP report –
http://www.proshareng.com/admin/upload/reports/The%20Bull%20in%20the%20China%20Shop%20220809.pdf
(August 22, 2010). In this report, we presented the CBN’s outlook for the financial
market, its interventions and the consequential impact of the steps taken and
proposed – seeking to highlight the implementation variables that could impact the
economy, businesses and the fortunes of the banks.

This was followed up with our 100 Days Intervention Report -


after the
where we
http://www.proshareng.com/admin/upload/reports/100_days_after_Report_-_Proshare_251109.pdf;
sought to establish the post-intervention realities faced by customers, banks and the
economy as a whole. We indeed undertook a revalidation of the summation of our
report in the earlier analytical work referred to above as a gauge of ‘believability’.

The conclusion drawn was that the CBN’s actions were long overdue but fraught with
many unintended consequences which ought to be managed with a clear sense of
action timing lest we risked creating a state of inertia in the sector that could impact
affairs. The effect on the industry, post the report, revealed that the execution
challenges envisaged were not exaggerated and that the policies and pronouncements
of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had created a ‘avalanche effect’ on the sector -
the confluence of which undermined the most important ingredient in the financial
market place – trust and clarity of objectives, motives and engagements.

For the avoidance of doubt, we retain the conviction that some sort of intervention was
required at the time it came; and do believe that the scale and size of the intervention
were at a base level required to ‘rein in’ the shift in practice that has all but eroded the
professional responsibility of banks and bankers.

This eventuality (and its herd management) however meant that banks had to operate
under excruciating but not existential circumstances and changes that impacted on
how they managed their poor risk-based decisions, provisions, focus on new
businesses and management changes; further accentuated by the increased
political/sovereign risk that pervaded the economy between November 2009 and
February 2010 – all generally creating an atmosphere, it would appear, un-conducive
to commercial vibrancy.

Banks, in the country, were therefore subjected to the most rigorous stress test ever
conducted in banking history and under such a clime, it was not unexpected that a
general lull would pervade the market. Indeed, not a few banks had to contend with a
fast-moving news cycle that was fed regularly with scoops from the apex regulators
that ensured a more than 100days news cycle was maintained on the banking sector
and not on the economy itself.

The consequential move against ‘habitual’ debtors through the publication of names of
debtors – most of which were disputed/contested/clarified on the pages of newspapers

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–had the unintended consequences of criminalising debtors and cause significant
damage to relationships and understandings that had held in the sector.

These set of initial actions by the CBN helped to create a rumour mill that just kept on
giving and in no time, facts were interlaced with fiction and the very lofty motive(s) of
the CBN were juxtaposed with conspiracy theorists and allegations of selective
intervention from all quarters.

What could not be disputed were the revelations of misdemeanours and malpractices
presented by the CBN against identified persons post their audit engagements that
were countered by shock, resistance and confrontation. The CBN, to its credit stood
strong despite subsequent mis-steps to steer the ‘reform’ forward.

Following the conclusion of the first CBN/NDIC joint audit of the banks in the country,
the regulatory authority axed the CEO’s of five banks and in its subsequent and final
audit axed the CEO’s of three additional banks and placed two banks on notice to build
up its capital base by June 2010.

The consequential effect of the audit which went on for about a period of three months
took its toll on individual banks, customers and the relationships that existed. More
importantly, the management and treatment of specialised assets and bank share-
backed collaterals led to subjective but prudence based provisioning that impacted on
the performance results of the cleared and un-cleared banks. This went on till
December 2009 when the CBN audit undertook its year end review and recognised the
need to take a more pragmatic and best practice view of the provisioning required
including the suspension of the general provisioning rule and the introduction of a
prudential guideline to take care of specialised assets.

The adoption of a common year accounting date in the sector will further reveal where
each bank stands in their fundamental and operational strengths. The results released
so far showed that some banks might not have much loan losses to make provisions
for (indeed, some had to plough back over-provisioning either as a function of
recoveries or the subjective application of judgements by inspectors) while others will
have to make additional provisions to reflect the deteriorating conditions of their loan
portfolios, diminution in value of assets, investments, and share backed collaterals or
adjustments necessitated by post audit evidence. Yet, it is evident from the results of
all the ten banks released so far, that some banks’ financial positions have improved
from what was reported by the CBN/NDIC special joint audit reports.

The common year accounting date is expected to create an atmosphere of healthy


competition in financial reporting in the banking sector as observed in the trend of few
banks that had done so – well aware of how such a compliance and improved level of
disclosure will resonate well with an investing public long on suspicion about their
financial health.

The rescued banks however face a different challenge. On the one hand, they may not be
able to present the same level of recovery posted by the cleared banks due to the
alleged precarious situations of their financial positions. On the other hand, they may
not be able to declare results at all as to do so would require them to hold an AGM
which as things stand, may be a difficult thing to achieve given the way events had
evolved.

The International Financial Reporting Standard being adopted in the sector is expected to
bring to bear on the system a level of transparency which will give the investing public
more confidence in the financial reports of banks - strengths or weaknesses. Most
importantly, when viewed within the context of a common accounting year end date; it

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should make the December 31, 2010 accounting reporting period a veritable
assessment template.

Following from this must be the expectation from the investment community on the
Asset Management Company being floated by the Central Bank of Nigeria in conjunction
with the Federal Ministry of Finance and backed by the Nigerian Stock
Exchange/Securities & Exchange Commission. The bill has passed through the
legislature and is now awaiting a synchronisation of the bills from the both the lower
and upper house. It must be noted that though the bill is not touted as representing a
cure all for the sector ills; its successful establishment should however go a long way
to providing the much needed respite to the sector, and indirectly to the economy – by
easing liquidity into the system (ceteris paribus). The bill is not without its critics who
question the operational structure, pricing of debts model and disposal issues; partly
as a result of the non-availability of the proposed bill to a wider audience.

Of interest must be the Central Bank of Nigeria’s policy on reviewing the practice of
Universal Banking. This has thus become a factor in the re-shaping of the banking
industry/Sectoral outlook in the coming days – 2010 to be precise – as the group
structure of banks are adjusted to reflect these new realities. Subsidiaries, affiliates
and associated companies will have to be reined in or extricated from pure banking
operations under different models to meet the demands of the new regulatory regime.
It should be noted that a combination of regulatory/supervisory inertia coupled with
misapplication of the concept by banks created the condition under which deposit-
based banks got entangled in linked and synergetic businesses which, left unregulated
or effectively supervised created conditions that impacted on the outcomes we have. It
is hoped that not a few institutions will have to revisit their business strategy and
models to meet this development.

In the closing month of 2009, banks, faced with the challenge of remaining in business
Profitably resorted to laying-off staff, partly to help reduce their operating expenses;
but in the main, to streamline operations relative to the business available now and
foreseeable. This caused some tension in the industry as it soon became widespread
and with such severity that it became a matter for national discourse. Some banks
refrained from this approach, perhaps on the strength of their belief in their business
model; and this went on till late January 2010 when it abated for a while and
continued in April/May 2010 with one of the banks seeking recapitalisation.

The staff issues soon paved way for the CBN policy on terms and tenures for MD/CEO’s of
banks which led to the forward dated exits of three pioneer chief executives of UBA,
Zenith and Skye Banks. This development was professionally well managed by these
institutions that complied with the directive and stabilised their institutions with the
announcement of successors in days and weeks; and ultimately sign-posted a positive
shift in the change management initiative embarked upon by the CBN. The newly
appointed MD/CEO’s have since been approved by the CBN and we can expect a
seamless transition.

The swing of operator focus is now of flight to quality as against flight to safety slogan.
Much emphasis will now be placed on quality on all fronts in the sector and no bank
will want to be seeing defaulting in delivering on quality platform. The imperative for
quality cuts across all the strata of banking businesses and quality of items on their
financials will be of paramount focus to the investing public.

Nigerian banks since then have taken steps to introduce and/or strengthen the
processes and practice of sound corporate governance and leadership succession in
their institutions.

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The banking sector metrics below show the portraits of the sector based on the results
announced so far.

Peer Results Comparison


Gross Earnings PAT
Audited Result Period Reported % Variance % Variance
Current N'm Previuos N'm Current N'm Previuos N'm
Access Bank Nine Months 66,076.46 89,552.70 -26.21% (4,402.70) 20,814.22 -121.15%
GTB Twelve Months 162,550.00 100,610.00 61.56% 23,690.00 28,320.00 -16.35%
Zenith Fifteen Months 277,300.00 211,600.00 31.05% 20,600.00 52,000.00 -60.38%
UBA Fifteen Months 246,725.00 169,506.00 45.56% 2,375.00 40,825.00 -94.18%
SKYE Fifteen Months 126,665.00 74,615.00 69.76% 1,130.00 15,126.00 -92.53%
DIAMOND Eight Months 67,735.00 108,979.00 -37.85% (8,142.00) 5,144.00 -258.28%
FINLAND Eighteen Months 72,386.00 30,779.00 135.18% (149,770.00) (96,726.00) 54.84%
IBTC Twelve Months 59,781.00 61,239.00 -2.38% 8,138.00 11,993.00 -32.14%
FIRSTBANK Nine Months 196,400.00 152,500.00 28.79% 3,200.00 33,900.00 -90.56%
Ecobank Plc Twelve Months 59,864.00 55,156.00 8.54% (4,588.00) 5,000.00 -191.76%
Sterling Bank Plc Fifteen Months 46,717 36,129.00 29.31% (9,019.00) 6,263.00 -244.00%
Fidelity Bank Plc Eighteen Months 34,716.00 72,274.00 -51.97% 1,557.00 1,430.00 8.88%
FCMB Eight Months 35,789.00 72,698.00 -50.77% 564.33 3,994.00 -85.87%
Unity Bank Plc Eighteen Months 46,420.00 42,982.00 8.00% (16,122.00) (12,895.00) -25.03%
Source: Proshare Research/Company Financials

Peer assesment (Price as at 14th May, 2010)


Metrics ACCESS FBN GTB UBA ZENITH SKYE IBTC FINBANK DIAMOND Ecobank Fidelity Sterling FCMB Unity
Market Price 9.09 15.14 17.19 13.00 15.89 8.35 11.02 0.59 8.99 5.9 3.11 2.32 8.45 1.11
EPS -0.27 0.11 1.52 0.11 1.21 0.1 0.43 0.06 -0.56 - 0.64 0.054 -0.72 0.000 -1.09
DPS 0.00 0.10 0.75 0.10 0.45 0.05 0.30 0 0 0.00 0.025 0 0.05 0
Dividend Payout 0.00 90.91% 49.34% 90.91% 37.19% 50.00% 69.77% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 46.30% 0.00% 145.21% 0.00%
Dividend Yield 0.00% 0.66% 4.36% 0.77% 2.83% 0.60% 2.72% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.80% 0.00% 0.59% 0.00%
PE Ratio -33.67 137.64 11.31 118.18 13.13 83.50 25.63 9.83 -16.05 -8.73 57.59 -3.22 245.41 -1.02
Earnings Yield -2.97% 0.73% 8.84% 0.85% 7.61% 1.20% 4.83% 10.17% -6.23% -11.46% 1.74% -31.03% 0.41% -98.20%
PAT Margings -6.66% 1.63% 14.57% 0.96% 7.43% 0.89% 13.61% -206.90% -12.02% -7.66% 4.48% -19% 1.58% -34.71%
Shares in issue in
Billion units 16.437 29.01 23.31 21.56 31.39 11.58 18.75 16.721 14.475 7.218 28.963 12.563 16.38 14.737
Source: Proshare Research/Company Financials

Peer Assesment Q1 2010 - March 31, 2010

Metrics(Q1 2010) ACCESS FBN GTB UBA ZENITH SKYE IBTC FINBANK DIAMOND Ecobank Fidelity Sterling FCMB Unity
Market Price 9.09 15.14 17.19 13.00 15.89 8.35 11.02 0.59 8.99 5.9 2.32 8.45
EPS 0.24 0.43 0.38 0.07 0.3 0.19 0.43 0.06 0.11 0.15 0.1 0.055
PE Ratio 37.88 35.21 45.24 185.71 52.97 43.95 25.63 9.83 81.73 39.33 23.20 153.64
Earnings Yield 2.64% 2.84% 2.21% 0.54% 1.89% 2.28% 4.83% 10.17% 1.22% 2.54% 4.31% 0.65%
PAT Margings 14.47% 19.79% 33.07% 3.23% 17.28% 9.44% 9.44% 7.92% 6.23% 7.82% 15.33% 6.26%
Shares in issue in
Billion units 16.437 29.01 23.31 21.56 31.39 11.58 18.75 16.721 14.475 7.218 12.563 16.38
Source: Proshare Research/Company Financials

http://www.proshareng.com/investors/company.php?ref=IBTC

Price movements of stocks in the banking sector in 2010 have been positive as all the
stocks in the sector with the exception of Afribank Plc, Union Bank Nigeria Plc and
Ecobank Nigeria Plc (which recorded a decline of -2.88%, -8% and -41.58%
respectively).

Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc – the subject of this report, placed second position in the year
to date appreciation ranking with a +53.91% price growth.

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% Change % Change % Change
31-Dec-09 4-Jan-10 14-May-10
Jan'10 - Apr'09 May'10 - Jan'10 May'10 - Dec'09

STERLNBANK 1.23 1.26 2.44% 2.32 84.13% 88.62%


IBTC 7.47 7.16 -4.15% 11.02 53.91% 47.52%
SKYEBANK 5.49 5.48 -0.18% 8.35 52.37% 52.09%
SPRINGBANK 0.76 0.73 -3.95% 0.95 30.14% 25.00%
UNITYBNK 0.84 0.87 3.57% 1.11 27.59% 32.14%
DIAMONDBNK 7.4 7.19 -2.84% 8.99 25.03% 21.49%
FIDELITYBK 2.4 2.52 5.00% 3.11 23.41% 29.58%
FCMB 7.16 7.01 -2.09% 8.45 20.54% 18.02%
ACCESS 7.6 7.55 -0.66% 9.09 20.40% 19.61%
UBA 10.8 10.81 0.09% 13.00 20.26% 20.37%
INTERCONT 1.61 1.69 4.97% 2.02 19.53% 25.47%
ZENITHBANK 13.6 13.50 -0.74% 15.89 17.70% 16.84%
WEMABANK 0.93 0.97 4.30% 1.11 14.43% 19.35%
GUARANTY 15.5 15.78 1.81% 17.19 8.94% 10.90%
FIRSTBANK 14.05 14.00 -0.36% 15.14 8.14% 7.76%
FIRSTINLND 0.53 0.55 3.77% 0.59 7.27% 11.32%
OCEANIC 1.69 1.77 4.73% 1.83 3.39% 8.28%
PLATINUM 1.32 1.38 4.55% 1.38 0.00% 4.55%
AFRIBANK 2.55 2.43 -4.71% 2.36 -2.88% -7.45%
UBN 6 6.25 4.17% 5.75 -8.00% -4.17%
ECOBANK 10.63 10.10 -4.99% 5.9 -41.58% -44.50%
Source: Proshare Research/Company Financials

THE EXPECTATIONS OF MANAGEMENT IN 2010 – AN INSIGHT

Personal and Business Banking Outlook

Domestic retail environment starting to look positive and present good


transactional and deposit gathering opportunities
Service and internal efficiencies drive has left the bank well positioned
Build on solid foundation to gather more customers in profitable
markets/segments.
Continued focus on recoveries and debt review
Cautiously increase focus on good quality asset growth
Continued investment in channel expansion
Focus on achieving operational and cost efficiencies across the business
Increased focus on new segments that was previously unbanked/under banked -
Mini branch strategy
Develop new business segments and products

Corporate and Investment Banking Outlook

The capital market have started showing signs of recovery, we expect this to
improve the revenue of our capital market related businesses.
Increased Bond Issuing activities.
Continue to build on the already laid foundation to grow our transactional products
and services franchise, specifically franchise collections and online payments.
Grow market share of trade finance through suitable trade finance model that
meets the needs of customers.
Focus on medium term financing and growing of risk asset book

© 2010 www.proshareng.com May 2010 10


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Maximising funding mix
Continued investment in human capital required to build a sustainable market
leading investment banking franchise
Continued focus on operational and cost efficiency
Cross border leverage of the group - one global CIB

Wealth Management Outlook

Recovery of the capital market will positively affect revenues from asset
management.
Focus on client service quality and availability
Continued focus on operating and cost efficiency
Continued to leverage on the quality and safety of the parent
Extending client coverage to trustee services
Increased compliance with pension regulation

Stanbic IBTC Strategy

Continue to build the Stanbic IBTC synonymous with integrity, excellence service
and reliability
Pursue a growth strategy (organic, inorganic & combinations)
Enhance operational efficiency via cost management & control – shared services,
core banking project.
Best people practices.
Expand our business within Personal & Business Banking space while “sweating”
our existing assets.
Capitalise on market leader position in Corporate Finance, Custody & Wealth
Management.
Focus on medium term financing and growing the risk asset book.
Introduce derivatives and hedging products via our Global Markets
Focus on trade & commercial banking to further grow our annuity income

Reference:
http://www.proshareng.com/reports/view.php?id=2602

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3. Fundamental Analysis
The Objective: To examine in a snapshot, the bank's financials and operations, especially earnings,
growth potential, assets, debt, management, products, and competition through financial ratios
arrived at by studying the balance sheet and profit & loss account over a number of years. This
analysis is more effective in fulfilling long – term growth objectives of shares, rather than their short –
term price fluctuations. In the Nigerian Stock Market, this has traditionally been the key focus of most
players and it remains a guiding beacon as to what could possible happen to a stock. Our approach
to fundamental analysis therefore takes into consideration only those variables that are directly
related to the company itself, rather than the overall state of the market or technical analysis data,
the former of which was reviewed in section 2 above and the latter, a subject for review in section 4
below.

BALANCE SHEET AS AT 31ST DECEMBER, 2009


GROUP 2009 GROUP 2008
Assets % Variance
N'million N'million
Cash and balance with CBN 7,772 11,587 -32.92%
Treasury bills 11,378 13,101 -13.15%
Due from other banks 76,954 111,593 -31.04%
Loans and advances to customers 110,508 98,398 12.31%
Advances under finance lease 9,377 4,261 120.07%
Investment securities 70,880 77,425 -8.45%
Investment in subsidiaries 1 1 0.00%
Deferred tax asset 594 0 0.00%
Other assets 26,944 19,484 38.29%
Property and equipment 26,878 15,432 74.17%
Total Assets 341,286 351,282 -2.85%
LIABILITIES:
Customers deposits 169,200 95,262 77.62%
Due to other banks 38,334 82,202 -53.37%
Other borrowings 12,647 12,201 3.66%
Other liabilites 34,848 74,043 -52.94%
Current income tax 4,660 5,821 -19.95%
Deferred taxation 100 378 -73.54%
Total Liabilities 259,789 269,907 -3.75%
EQUITY
Share capital 9,375 9,375 0.00%
Capital reserve 71,105 71,289 -0.26%
Shareholders' Fund 80,480 80,664 -0.23%
Non-controlling interest 1,017 711 43.04%
LIABILITIES AND EQUITY 341,286 351,282 -2.85%
ACCEPTANCES AND GUARANTEES 27,834 50,861 -45.27%
Source: IBTC Bank Plc Financials /Proshare Research

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PROFIT AND LOSS ACCOUNTS FOR THE YEAR ENDED 31ST DECEMBER, 2009
GROUP 2009 GROUP 2008
INCOME STATEMENT % Variance
N'million N'million
Gross Earnings 59,781 61,230 -2.37%
Interest and similar income 40,920 40,973 -0.13%
Interest and similar expense -15,813 -18,611 -15.03%
Net interest income 25,107 22,362 12.28%
Fee and commission income 13,852 14,995 -7.62%
Fee and commission expense -145 -133 9.02%
Net fee and commission income 13,707 14,862 -7.77%
Foreign exchange income 4,169 4,115 1.31%
Income from investments 274 750 -63.47%
Other income 566 406 39.41%
Operating income 43,823 42,495 3.13%
Operating expenses -28,623 -22,850 25.26%
Provision for losses -4,858 -5,020 -3.23%
Profit/(Loss) before tax 10,342 14,625 -29.29%
Taxation -2,204 -2,632 -16.26%
Profit after tax 8,138 11,993 -32.14%
Non-controlling interest -490 -430 13.95%
Profit attributable to the group 7,648 11,563 -33.86%
Key financial information:
Total non performing loans and advances 18,830 15,537 21.19%
Tota non performing loans to total loans and advances 14.1% 13.7%
Earnings per share (basic/diluted) 43k 64k
Dividend per share (paid) 40k 25k
Source: IBTC Bank Plc Financials /Proshare Research

GENERAL COMMENTS AND OBSERVATION

Gross Earnings and Interest Income: IBTC Bank Plc’s gross earnings in the period
under review declined marginally, when compared with the preceding financial year,
by -2.37% to close at N59.781bn from N61.230bn recorded as at December 31st,
2008. The Management of the bank attributed the decline in the revenue of the bank
in the year under review to the low levels of activities in the capital market which
adversely affected the income generation of the bank (a revealing insight about the
profitability streams of the bank).

Besides the reason adduced above, there were also declines of different magnitude in
some of the income components: interest income declined by -0.13% while income
from investments dropped by -63.47%. However, going by growths recorded in the
loans and advances and deposits, corresponding growths is expected in the interest
income components if all remains well with loans advanced in the period.

Comparing the 2009 with 2008 financial periods in terms of components of interest
income contributing items, loans and advances contribution declined from 61%
achieved in 2008 to 59% in 2009; just as contribution from placements declined from
12% to 11% in the year under review.

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Contributions from securities inched up from the 27% recorded in the preceding year
to 30% in 2009. Stronger and more efficient credit risk management and reappraisal
of all the interest income generating components might be necessary for
improvements in this instance.

Deposit Base and Net Interest Margin: IBTC Bank Plc deposits base in the last five
financial years has been on a consistent upward trend. The bank in the year under
review grew its deposits by 77.62% from N95.262bn recorded in 2008 to close at
N169.200bn in 2009 December. The fact that IBTC is one of the cleared banks in the
country could be adduced to one of the reasons for the growth as depositors would
consider such a bank as safe haven for their hard earned money.

Other factors, according to the Management of the bank, responsible for this will
include the bank’s continued focus on stable & low deposits, as well as the deliberate
branch expansion in focussed areas as indicated by the management – an immediate
increase in cost for the period under review.

In the same vein, interest margin of the bank for the period under review grew by
12.28% to close at N25.107bn in December 2009 from N22.362bn recorded as at
December 2008. The growth in net interest margin was boosted by the decline in
interest expense during the period – at a rate above the decline recorded in
interest income. Net interest margin as a result closed higher at 63.23% from
59.46% recorded by 2008. This shows the level of efficiency in the bank’s
interest expense management.

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Net Interest Margin Compared

Financial Efficiency: The bank’s financial efficiency measured by cost to income ratio
showed decline as the rate of cost to income ratio rose to 78.26% (Excluding Loan
loss Expense) compared with 72.21% recorded in the twelve months period to
December 31st, 2008. According to the Management, increase in cost could be
attributable to substantial investments in information technology and branch network
with huge investment in human development for future growth.

Higher Operating Expenses: The rise in operating expenses to N28.623bn as at


31st December 2009 from N22.850bn recorded as at 31st December, 2008, rising by
25.26% could be attributed to rise in staff costs and depreciation cost in the period.

However, other operating cost components recorded a decline. It could not be


ascertained as at the period of writing this report if the bank embarked on any sort of
staff rationalisation. There may be need for measures to put costs under control as a
means of boosting financial efficiency of the bank, and hence boosting profitability
which translates to higher returns to the shareholders.

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Loan Loss Expense (Provisions): The N4.858bn loan loss provisions that appeared
in the books of the bank was considered to be moderate considering present situation
in the industry most especially with reference to credit quality in the book of the
banks. The loan loss provision trended downward marginally by 3.23% from N5.02bn
recorded in the previous accounting year.

Factors that was claimed to have impacted the credit impairment charges recorded, a
seemly positive outlook is highlighted below:
Effectiveness of risk management processes and prudent approach to credit
impairments led to a 3% decrease in credit impairment charges despite additional
provision arising from the special audit exercise carried out by the regulators; and
Improved collection capability including strategies to manage risk and operational
capacity

Non-Performing Loans: Though the bank claimed to have put in place improved
collection capability for its loans recovery, the actual amounts of its non-performing
loans recovered was not provided in the report and detailed presentations. The
percentage of non-performing loans to total loans and advances rose to
17.03% as at December 2009 from 15.79% of the ratio recorded by December
2008.

The bank’s total non-performing loans grew by 21.19% from N15.53bn as of


December 2008 to N18.830bn by December 2009. The bank’s claim of a low exposure
to capital market and oil and gas sectors of the economy which were the hardest hit by
the global and local financial crisis might contribute to the relative manageable state of
its non-performing loans.

Non-Performing Loans and CAR: In the management’s presentation, there was no


any reference to the loan loss recovered so far the bank. This would have been a
pointer to the prospect or otherwise for the recovery of the outstanding ‘toxic’ loans in
its book.

This did not stop the bank recording one of the strongest capital adequacy
ratios (CAR) in the industry.

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Business Segment Contribution: Among the three business segments mentioned
below, only wealth management unit recorded profitability growth while other two had
profitability decline of different magnitude. Meanwhile, Corporate and investment
banking segment recorded higher turnover in the period.

Business Segment Contributions Gross Earnings N'bn PBT in N'bn


Var (%) Var (%)
2009 2008 2009 2008
Personal & Bus Banking 11.2 12.48 -9% 1.13 4.35 -74%
Corporate & Inv Banking 25.59 20.82 23% 5.78 7.8 -26%
Wealth Management 6.93 9.2 -25% 3.43 2.48 39%
Source: Proshare Research/Company Financials

THE FINANCIALS REVIEWED


Gross Revenue and Profit after Tax

Comparing the result for the period ended 31st December, 2009 with the preceding
year twelve months results, Gross Earnings declined by 2.37% to close at N59.781
billion compared with N61.230 billion reported in the twelve months period to
December 31st, 2009. The bank reported profit before tax of N10.342 billion compared
with N14.625 billion profit reported by December 31st, 2008, a decline by 29.29%.
There was a after tax profit of N8.138 billion compared with N11.993 billion net profit
recorded in the preceding twelve month period, also a decline by 32.14%

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The chart above revealed that the bank’s profitability has been on the consistent
uptrend though with low growth in both PBT and PAT recorded in 2007 financial year.

The bank posted negative profitability growth only in the financial year under
reviewed. This trend shows a level of stability in the bank’s profitability trend and may
be suggestive of a sustainable trend of rewards ahead for its shareholders. This
translates to earnings per share (EPS) of 43k from 64k of the preceding year.

In the last six financial years, as captured by the right sided chart, the trend shows
declining profitability margin, the highest so far being the figures recorded in the
year 2004. This shows that the shares of revenue being gulped by the expenses has
been on the increase. There is need for closer watch on this.

Net Interest Margin of other Banks Compared

The net interest margin of Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc closed higher in the year under
review when compared with the preceding reporting period figures. While some other
banks recorded downward figures, Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc is in the class of banks with
upward figures.

This, when compared with the growth trend in the company’s loans and advances
growth trend, however showed a mismatch and may be an indicator for possible
management interest/improvement on loan quality management.

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Loans and Advances

Stanbic IBTC Bank’s loans and advances figures as at 31st December, 2009 rose by
12.31% to close at N110.508bn compared with N98.398bn for the preceding twelve
months period. Loan to deposit ratio in the last six accounting periods (apart from a
decline to 53.81% recorded in 2007) has been posting encouraging trend till date.

The chart of the deposit composition above shows that the bulk of the bank’s deposits
come from term deposit and current accounts. Comparing the composition with the
preceding accounting period shows that term deposits and current accounts remain the
two growing components of the banks’ deposit base.

Total Assets and Total Deposits

Total deposits of the bank in 2006 recorded the highest growth figures of 446.02%
from a low growth of 6.06% recorded in 2005. Total assets peaked at 214.11% in
2006. Assets diminution however set in with the bank’s December 31st 2009 to close
with negative growth of -2.84% (see chart below).

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The marginally decline could be attributed to heavier decline recorded in such assets
components as cash and bank balances, treasury bills and due from other banks. This
might have impaired the liquidity status of the bank in a way since the declining
components form part of the liquidity components of assets.

Earnings Performance

The Bank’s earnings performance, as measured by the returns on average assets


and returns on average equity in the year under review declined.

The banks return on equity and return on assets as at December 31st 2008 stood at
14.87% and 3.41% respectively, an increase in ROE by 3.67% over the rate
recorded in 2007 while ROA declined 0.13% from the same period. There was decline
ROE from 14.87% recorded in 2008 to 10.11% in 2009 and same trend in ROA from
3.41% to 2.38%. The drop in profits accounted for the trend.

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Shareholders’ Funds and Total Assets
IBTC Bank Plc shareholders’ fund maintained consistent growth in the five years to
December 31st 2008 to record a marginal decline by 0.23% in the 2009 financial year.
The highest growth of 171.21% was recorded in 2006 financial year, to be followed by
58.34% growth recorded in 2008. The insignificant depletion in the bank’s
shareholders fund and assets accounted for the strong capital adequacy recorded when
compared with other banks in the country.

Capital Adequacy Compared

The bank’s capital


adequacy has been on the
stable trend in the last
five financial periods,
though not without
marginal decline in some
years. The moderate loan
loss provisions as a result
of the bank’s manageable
non-performing loans
could account for the
trend. IBTC Bank Plc’ CAR
as at 31st December, 2009
stood at 35%

FINANCIAL RESULTS FOR FIRST QUARTER TO MARCH 31ST 2010

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STANBIC IBTC BANK PLC Q1 2010 RESULTS
Balance Sheet 31 Mar '10 (N'm) 31 Mar '09 (N'm) % Variance
Assets
Cash & Bank Balances 6,519 10,819 -39.74%
Treasury Bills 7,221 2,929 146.53%
Due from other Banks 74,094 57,780 28.23%
Loans and Advances 110,894 128,524 -13.72%
Advances under Finance Lease 10,217 4,785 113.52%
Investment Securities 52,359 57,017 -8.17%
Investment in Subsidiaries 0 1 -100.00%
Deffered Tax Assets 205 0 0.00%
Other Assets 36,323 32,386 12.16%
Property and Equipments 25,061 18,179 37.86%
Total Assets 322,893 312,420 3.35%
Liabilities
Customer Deposits 160,189 99,969 60.24%
Due to Other Banks 16,043 71,450 -77.55%
Other Borrowings 12,640 13,155 -3.91%
Other Liabilities 44,966 35,489 26.70%
Current Income Tax 4,924 7,740 -36.38%
Deferred Tax Liabilities 61 64 -4.69%
Total Liabilities 238,823 227,867 4.81%
Equity
Share Capital 9,375 9,375 0.00%
Reserves 73,693 74,385 -0.93%
Shareholders' Fund 83,068 83,760 -0.83%
Minority Interests 1,002 796 25.88%
Liabilities and Equity 322,893 312,423 3.35%
Acceptance and Guarantees 17,033 44,635 -61.84%
Profit and Loss Accounts N' million N' million % Variance
Gross Earnings 14,483 13,009 11.33%
Interest and Similar Income 9,991 7,979 25.22%
Interet ans Similar Expenses -2,878 -2,349 22.52%
Net Interest Income 7,113 5,630 26.34%
Fee and Commission Income 3,690 2,553 44.54%
Fee and Commission Expenses -27 -53 -49.06%
Net Fee and Commission Income 3,663 2,500 46.52%
Foreign Exchange Income 678 2,294 -70.44%
Income from Investments 22 63 -65.08%
Other Income 102 120 -15.00%
Operating Income 11,578 10,607 9.15%
Operating Expenses -7,851 -6,809 15.30%
Provisison for Losses -281 -5 5520.00%
Profit Before Tax 3,446 3,793 -9.15%
Taxation -858 -1,138 -24.60%
Profit After Tax 2,588 2,655 -2.52%
Non-Controlling Interests -132 -101 30.69%
Profit Attributable to the Group 2,456 2,554 -3.84%
Key Financial Informations
Earnings Per Share in kobo 14.00 14.16
Total Non-Performing Loans 18,568 14,146
Annualized ROE 3.12% 3.17%
Annualized ROA 0.80% 0.85%
Risk Adjusted Capital Ratio 25.73% 26.81%
Annualised Net Interest Margin 71.19% 70.56%
Non-Performing Loan Ratio 13.74% 9.92%
Cost to Income Ratio 82.13% 79.59%
Loan to Deposit Ratio 69.23% 128.56%
PBT Margin 23.79% 29.16%
PAT Margin 17.87% 20.41%
Oparating expenses/Operating Income 67.81% 64.19%
Source: IBTC/Proshare Research

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Q1 2010 SNAPSHOT AND SALIENT INDICES
:
Revenue and Profitability Gross earnings in the quarter recorded growth by
11.33% to close at N14.483bn from N13.009bnn figures posted in the preceding year
comparable period. Growth recorded in most of the income components accounted for
the increase. Profit after tax however declined marginally by 2.52% to close at
N2.588bn compared with higher figures of N2.655bn recorded at the close of 2009 first
quarter. The EPS consequently declined from 14.16k to 14k.

Cost to Income Ratio: The bank’s efficiency ratio measured by cost to income ratio
stood at 82.13% compared with 79.59% of the preceding year comparable period.
This shows decline in the bank’s efficiency ratio. The bank may need to take a critical
look into this trend to forestall situations where heavier cost burden overruns the
profitability potentials of the bank.

Return on Assets and Return on Equities: IBTC Bank Plc Return on Assets at the
end of the quarter declined to +0.80% from +0.85% in the preceding comparable
period. Return on Equity followed the same trend, closing lower to 3.12% from
+3.17% of the preceding comparable period. This shows the need for the management
to look for ways of putting assets and funds of the organisation into more profitable
usage to generate higher returns.

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4. Technical Analysis
The Objective: To review the stock valuation by relying on the assumption that market
data, such as charts of price, volume, and open interest, can help predict future (usually
short-term) market trends. Unlike fundamental analysis, the intrinsic value of the stock is not
part of the consideration here. More and more investors are beginning to appreciate and
rely on technical analysis in reviewing stocks on the Nigerian Stock Exchange because of
the proven fact that market psychology influences trading in a way that enables
predicting when a stock will rise or fall. For that reason, technical analysis are market timed
based and predicated on the belief that technical analysis can be applied just as easily to
the market as a whole as to an individual stock.

MOST RECENT STOCK PERFORMANCE OF STANBIC IBTC BANK SHARES

Stanbic Bank Plc in the last sixteen months to May 14th, 2010 recorded +6.37%
appreciations to close at N11.02 from N10.36 it closed at the end of January 2nd, 2009
trading session. This trend placed IBTC Bank Plc as one of the banks in the sector
which have recorded price appreciations above their January 2nd, 2009 price levels.

In the year 2009 alone, the share price of the bank closed with -27.89% depreciations,
compared with -33.80% depreciations recorded in the entire market in the
period. This positive performance though slightly showed a level of resilience in the
bank’s stock in the period under review notwithstanding the general bearish trend of
the market coupled with the shake up in the banking sector from August 14th, 2009.

In the year 2010 alone, the bank as at 14th May , 2010 recorded year to date
appreciation of +54% which is above +18.30% sector average appreciations for
the same period.

The trend so far in the price movement of the shares of the bank shows that the share
of the bank is one of the top performing stocks in the sector.

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THE ASI AND STANBIC IBTC PLC

The All-Share Index and Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc share price are moving almost in the
same direction. In the year 2009 alone, the share price of the bank closed on -
27.89% appreciations, below the -33.80% depreciations recorded in the entire
market in the period.

In the year 2010, Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc share price appreciated by +54% to
outperform the market as indicated by the +30.73% appreciation recorded for the
All-Share Index.

As illustrated from the graph below, the IBTC Bank Plc share price now trades above
its 20 days, 50 days and 200 days moving averages which closed at N10.21, N10.25
and N8.35 respectively as at 17th May, 2010.

Technically, IBTC Bank Plc share trading above its 200 days moving average seems to
suggest that the bank has assumed a bullish outlook. A Closer observation of the bank’
share price revealed that the bank’s share price has consistently been trading above
its 200 days moving averages since 6th of January 2010.

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5. Analyst Insight
The Objective: This is not an opinion on the stock (given that we still await specific
information required to form an objective opinion). To enable investors make sense of
the data released however, and considering the significance of the paradigm shift
taking place in the banking industry; we have thus provided an insight into the
deductions we are able to make from the information available for further review and
professional advice.

Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc’s performance was a refreshing relief in an era dominated by
dislocations to banks balance sheet and an expose on the internal risk management
practices deployed in those institutions based on their common year results to
December 31st, 2009. The results show a level of resilience notwithstanding the
challenging operating environment, a tribute to a prudent approach to managing the
business of banking in a volatile economy like Nigeria.

We observed that Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc managed its non-performing loan relatively
better when compared with peers as evidenced from the results declared so far. The
fact that the bank has been able to keep the non-performing loans and hence
provisions for such within historical levels is highly commendable and should be a
positive indicator as to what lies ahead in days and years to come, ceteris paribus.

The path of caution adopted by the bank to resist the urge to tow the generic line by
indulging in the issuance of float-bloating scrip issue to investors/shareholders is in our
opinion a positive attribute.

Though the trend in the banking sector as observed showed that Stanbic IBTC’s Capital
Adequacy Ratio (CAR) at 35% is among the strongest, if not the highest, there is still
room for the bank’s management to improve/strengthen its risk management for more
efficiency and thereby prune down possible likelihood of non-performing loans arising
in the coming reporting periods.

This will be the litmus test for our assessment of management and its profitability
potential.

Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc is known to be a prominent player in the capital market, hence
the attribution of its decline in gross earnings to the low level of activities in the capital
market; would not be acceptable should the positive YTD trend be sustained –
otherwise it leaves a question mark on its revenue distribution metric.

While the bank boasts of a strong risk management regime, there exist reasons to
query its high cost profile - which has seen the efficiency ratio of the bank on the
decline. This we believe will serve both the interest of the shareholders and the
management.

The sustained profitability outlook of the bank as recorded in Q1 2010 appears


therefore sustainable and should excite existing and potential shareholders of the
bank.

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