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Asian Business Dialogue on Corporate Governance

2012

“The Energy Sector in ASEAN:
Opportunities and Challenges”
Khun Surong Bulakul

1ACE-LIC

Outline

ASEAN Energy Overview
ASEAN Energy Consumption Efficiency
Opportunities and challenges in ASEAN
ASEAN Collaboration

km) Population (Million) GDP 2010 (Billion US$) Share of World GDP (% ) World 129.China 9.364.729 2. New Zealand) 29.327.890 67 318 0.322 6. Cambodia.326.075 13. However. India.159 1. Laos.ASEAN is growing fast ASEAN countries have potential to grow with a corresponding world economic market ASEAN population accounts for 9% of the world. Thailand and Vietnam 3 3 .879 9.5 4.579.814 16.998 19.489 1.0 US 9.582 23.057 574 1.973.810 326 12.509.8% to the world GDP.India 2. there is room for improving the economic growth in ASEAN countries. Philippines.3 .049 100.190 1.550 21.5 ASEAN + 6 (China.9 Asia . Japan) 14. Myanmar.175 19. Korea. Land Area (sq.697 63.9 .501 30.2 EU 2.611.325 5.330 25.140 1.000 3. Korea. Singapore. Japan.114.7 510.3 44.161.Thailand ASEAN (10) Source: World Bank Note: ASEAN (10): Brunei. but contribute only 1. Malaysia.8 ASEAN + 3 (China.966 2. Australia.223 3.920 304 14. Indonesia.

6 9.1 1.5 5.9 Developing Asia 7.4 .8 2.5 ASEAN 1.5 11.5 -0.3 4.7 .6 5.8 -4.6 .5 -2.5 -6.3 5.5 4.5 Advanced Economies -3.Japan -6.9 2.0 -0.9 5.1 4.China 9.4 3.5 2.2 9.5 .US -2.4 8.6 8.0 2.5 5.5 4.3 4.2 2.3 9.7 2.1 4.1 .8 1.7 GDP Growth (%yoy) GDP (%) 13.5 World -0.2 5.ASEAN is growing fast ASEAN is one of the fastest growing region in the world 2009 2010 2011 (E) 2012 (F) World -0.5 China 9.8 10.3 ASEAN 5.5 7.1 7.3 3.India 6.6 2.2 10.5 2.4 8.2 7.5 2005 2006 Source: Jun 2011 SourceIMF : IMF and ADB 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012F 4 4 .0 2.EU -4.

Energy Balance in ASEAN ASEAN will require increasing energy supply to keep up with its rapid pace of economic expansion Mtoe ASEAN Final Energy Consumption 1200 1000 COAL 800 OIL 600 NATURAL GAS 400 ELECTRICCITY 200 OTHERS 0 1990 2007 2012 2020(BAU) 2030(BAU) .

1 Thailand 13 6 1.239 0.0 - 23 503 - Malaysia 95 20 4 4.2 40 270-4802 0.529 4.0 Myanmar 35-901.1 Philippines 4 13 316 0.4 Vietnam 8 22 150 0.6 Indonesia Laos 6 .Energy Balance in ASEAN Petroleum Reserve in ASEAN Gas reserves (TCF) Hydropower potential capacity (GW) Coal proved reserves (Million tons) Oil proved reserves (Billions bbl) 121 75 5.

065 -8.302 -15.000 17.000 Source : Wood Makenzie Laos 1.000 Darussalam -4.952 25.000 500 Brunei Malaysia -5.000 5.229 Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Thailand 8 out of 10 ASEAN countries depend on imported crude Singapore 7 .Energy Balance in ASEAN Most ASEAN countries are net oil importer (2010) Ktoe 65.000 29.356 55.000 35.150 1.994 15.352 15.000 61.195 Cambodia Myanmar 3.000 45.

610 0 Indonesia Malaysia -10.093 -30.000 Brunei Darussalam -8.Energy Balance in ASEAN While few countries are gas importer (2010) Ktoe 10.810 7.896 Thailand & Singapore use imported gas from their neighboring countries but LNG will become alternative choice in the near future -50.515 Myanmar Thailand Singapore -7.514 -20.000 -37.000 4.000 -40.000 Source : Wood Makenzie 8 .000 -26.

227 260.000 -10.000 140.786 320.360 110.858 Gas 9 .000 39.126 170.482 -100.539 80.879 2030 -24.000 Oil 261.598 -68.000 50.000 Source : Wood Makenzie -58.000 -70.000 203.859 200.219 -83.570 -67.Energy Balance in ASEAN Most ASEAN countries are highly dependent on oil import more than ever Ktoe 315.000 74.000 -56.000 154.000 118.093 -64.000 230.000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 -40.706 20.000 290.

000 250.000 350.000 Oil consumption Oil production 300.Energy Balance in ASEAN Oil Consumption nearly double in 2030 but oil production keep declining Ktoe 400.000 200.000 100.000 50.000 0 2000 Source: Wood Mckenzie 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 10 .000 150.

000 50.000 100.000 Gas consumption Gas production 250.Energy Balance in ASEAN Gas consumption also continue to increase as well as gas production in the near future (2020) Ktoe 300.000 200.000 0 2000 Source: Wood Mckenzie 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 11 .000 150.

PTT CEO.Energy Balance in ASEAN Continental ASEAN Concept Energy Deficit Energy Surplus Source : Dr. Pailin Chuchotaworn. .

Outline ASEAN Energy Overview ASEAN Energy Consumption Efficiency Opportunities and challenges in ASEAN ASEAN Collaboration .

ASEAN Energy Intensity vs World in 2008 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 World 5000 0 Brunei Singapore Thailand Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Laos Cambodia Burma (Myanmar) Total Primary Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP (Btu per Year 2005 U. Dollars (Purchasing Power Parities)) Source : EIA 14 .S.

4 0.08839 Philippines 0.41968 Vietnam 0.05594 Laos 0.6 0.2 .07365 Cambodia 0.98979 0 0.S.Carbon Intensity using Purchasing Power Parities Burma (Myanmar) 0.5172 Singapore 0.8 (Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide per Thousand Year 2005U.69536 Brunei 0. Dollars) Source : EIA 1 1.24403 Malaysia 0.2 0.4202 Indonesia 0.47324 Thailand 0.

Encouraging the efficient use of energy Bio Fuel Efficient PP 3% 5% CCS 10% Nuclear 10% Renewable 20% Remove fossil fuel subsidies Energy efficiency 52% Establish clear. consistent standards source: IEA. and insulate economies from the volatility of energy prices Educate & create awareness 16 . IIEC Improving energy efficiency is the best way to ensure energy security. limit greenhouse gas emissions.

Environmental Management: License to Operate GREEN CG CSR 17 .

Promote renewable energy in the region Biomass Thailand Indonesia Wind Power Go Green Vietnam Small hydro Laos Solar All country in ASEAN Biofuel Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Laos Geothermal Philippines 18 .

Outline ASEAN Energy Overview ASEAN Energy Consumption Efficiency Opportunities and challenges in ASEAN ASEAN Collaboration .

Challenges vs. ports & • Aim to use energy pipelines as country economy driver • Philippines • Geography • Limited Petroleum Resource • Oil Retail Business Malaysia • Energy Subsidies • Refinery & • Green Energy Petrochemical Business • LPG Business Singapore • High dependency on imported energy •Trading Brunei Indonesia • Energy Subsidies • Green Energy • Coal Business • Palm Oil Plantation • E&P Business • Energy Efficiency • Coal Business . Opportunities Laos Vietnam • Limited Petroleum Resource • Infrastructure • Hydro Power • Oil Retail Business • Energy accessibility • Infrastructure • Coal Business • LPG Business • Petrochemical Business Cambodia • High dependency on • Oil Retail Business imported energy • OCA Myanmar • Political • E&P Business Insatiability • Hydro Power • Infrastructure • Logistics.

Thailand Energy Security 21 .

Outline ASEAN Energy Overview ASEAN Energy Consumption Efficiency Opportunities and challenges in ASEAN ASEAN Collaboration .

ASEAN Must Accept Market Economy Increase competitiveness Depart from protectionism & subsidies From the World competitiveness scoreboard 2011 Financial sector 3rd Singapore 16th Malaysia 27th Thailand 37th Indonesia 41st Philippines Increase awareness Agricultural sector Energy sector Telecommunication sector Commercial sector Entrepreneurship AEC 23 .

Enhancing the security of petroleum supply for ASEAN members ASEAN Power Grid Trans ASEAN Gas Pipeline Regional Joint Stockpiling 24 .

awareness and entrepreneurship and depart from protectionism and subsidies 25 . • Environment concern on carbon credit.Summary • ASEAN is one of the fastest growing region in the world. Go Green Strategy and License to operate • Collaboration : Increase in competitiveness. • Lot of room for improvement on energy efficiency in ASEAN. • Most of ASEAN counties highly depend on oil import while most countries are gas exporter.

Thank You .