You are on page 1of 43

CONTACT:

Coleman Bass
TargetSmart Communications, LLC
(443) 676-1803
PressPublicPolling@targetsmart.com

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: 10/08/2016

EDITORS NOTE:
Expl ore our i nteractive dashboard with s urvey results a nd voter file data here

NEW PRE-DEBATE TARGETSMART AND WILLIAM & MARY POLL OF OHIO LIKELY VOTERS
-Clinton 43, Trump 40 Latest Survey ShowsOctober 8, 2016 The contest for Ohios 18 electoral votes remains ti ght, according to a new poll of 812 l ikely voters released today by Ta rgetSmart
a nd William & Ma ry. Hi llary Cl inton garners 43 percent of the vote to Donald Trumps 40 percent, with 8 percent of voters b acking Gary Johnson. These
trends a re largely i n-line with TargetSmart a nd William & Ma rys survey from late September, in which 40 percent of likely voters in Ohio backed
Cl i nton and 37 percent s upported Trump.
Thi s is the second poll released by Ta rgetSmart a nd William & Ma ry s ince the political data company and university formed a partnership to conduct
res earch i n key battleground s tates. Ma ny publicly rel eased s urveys use s elf-reported likelihood to vote to i dentify a likely voter sample, screening out
s urvey res pondents who may end up participating, or i ncluding respondents who may not ultimately vote. The l ikely voter model used to weight this
s urvey da ta starts by mirroring all registered voters on the TargetSmart voter file, and then applies a second round of weights based s olely on
res pondents likelihood to vote, as measured by Ta rgetSmarts General El ection Turnout s core, one of many predictive models h oused on the
Ta rgetSmart voter file.
Ra ther than preventing certain registered voters from participating in the survey, our likely voter model puts more weight behind the survey
res ponses of those voters with a demonstrated past behavior of participation, a nd down weights responses from those who are l ess likely to vote,
s a id Ron Rapoport, John Ma rshall Professor of Government at William & Ma ry.
Survey res ults s how Donald Trump continues to struggle with his base, a ttracting just 74 percent of s elf -described Republican voters. On the flip side,
Hi l lary Cl i nton wins the support of 88 percent of self-described Democrats. Independents favor Trump by a narrow 5-point margin (35 percent for
Cl i nton to 40 percent for Trump), but 14 percent of these key s wing voters back Johnson. Trump also l eads a mong men (by 8 points), holding
pa rti cularly s trong a dvantages among white men (by 21 poi nts), married men (by 23 poi nts), a nd men without a college degree (by 17 poi nts). Overall,
whi te voters without a college degree favor Trump by 23 points. Cl intons coalition consists of African Americans (with whom she leads by 74 points),
unma rried voters (by 19 poi nts) a nd college educated women (by 22 poi nts). Cl inton also holds a marginal a dvantage amon g white college graduates
(by 4 poi nts).
Mos t of those surveyed (80 percent) report having watched the first presidential debate and these voters generally believe Cl inton won (62 percent say
s he won, 17 percent s ay Trump won); notably, one-in-three Ohio Republican voters (34 percent) believe Cl inton won the first debate. Moreover, a third
of l i kely Ohi o voters overall (32 pe rcent), as well as independent voters more s pecifically (32 percent), report that Trumps debate performance made
them l ess likely to s upport him.
Our s urvey s uggests that Trumps performance i n the debate itself has been more damaging to his prospects i n Ohio than the s ubsequent fallout over
Al i cia Ma chado and his ta x returns, said Ta rgetSmart pollster Ben Lazarus.
Mos t voters have seen, heard or read something a bout Machado (69 percent) and Trumps tax returns (85 percent) a ccording to the survey. However,
onl y 1-i n-5 voters (21 percent) report that information a bout Ma chado has made them less inclined to vote for Trump, and only ma rginall y more (26
percent) s ay what they ha ve heard a bout Trumps ta x returns negatively i mpacts their likelihood to support him. Notably, a plurality of Ohio voters (45
percent) believe Trump has not released his tax returns because he knows they will cause political problems for him. Just 25 percent take him at his
word tha t he ca nnot release his returns due to a routine IRS audit. Ohio voters a re also relatively s uspect of Secretary Cl i nton when it comes to tra de,
a s just 20 percent believe s he will remain against the TPP i n the future, while 38 percent say s he will change her position o n i t and ultimately support
the deal.
###
About TargetSmart:
TargetSmart is the leading provider of political data that enables campaigns and organizations to successfully communicate wi th large audiences, and
personalize outreach. Our superior politically-focused, consultative approach combines consumer data, databases, data integration and consulting solutions for
personalized multichannel marketing strategies. TargetSmart leverages over 25 years of experience in data management to deliv er high-performance, reliable
data products and solutions.
About William & Mary:
William & Mary is a public university located in Williamsburg, Virginia. Founded by Royal Charter in 1693, it is the second o ldest institution of higher education
in the United States. U.S. News and World Report ranks William & Mary sixth among all public universities in the country.

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll


Ohio Statewide
Table of Contents

Poll Toplines ................................................................................................................................................. 3

Poll Methodology ....................................................................................................................................... 13

Poll Crosstabs ............................................................................................................................................. 14

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016


812 Likely Voters

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll


Ohio Statewide
Frequencies
First of all, are you registered to vote in Ohio?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Yes
...............................................................................................................................................................
100
.No
(TERMINATE)
...............................................................................................................................................................
.
In what year were you born?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.18
- 24
...............................................................................................................................................................
4
.25
- 29
...............................................................................................................................................................
13
.30
...............................................................................................................................................................
- 34
8
.35
- 39
...............................................................................................................................................................
7
.40
- 44
...............................................................................................................................................................
8
.45
...............................................................................................................................................................
- 49
8
.50
- 54
...............................................................................................................................................................
8
.55
- 59
...............................................................................................................................................................
9
.60
...............................................................................................................................................................
- 64
10
.Over
64
...............................................................................................................................................................
23
.(No
answer)
...............................................................................................................................................................
1
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.18
...............................................................................................................................................................
- 49
49
.50
and over
...............................................................................................................................................................
50
.
Sex of respondent
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Male
...............................................................................................................................................................
48
.Female
...............................................................................................................................................................
52
.

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll, Ohio Statewide: Frequencies, October 3-6 2016

How likely are you to vote in the general election this November? Would you say you definitely will vote, probably will vote,
the chances are 50-50 that you will vote, you probably will not vote, or you definitely will not vote?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Definitely
...............................................................................................................................................................
will vote
90
.Probably
...............................................................................................................................................................
will vote
5
.Chances
are 50-50
...............................................................................................................................................................
3
.Probably
...............................................................................................................................................................
will not vote
2
.Definitely
...............................................................................................................................................................
will not vote
0
.(Prefer
not to answer)
...............................................................................................................................................................
0
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Definitely/Probably
...............................................................................................................................................................
Will vote
95
.Probably/Definitely
...............................................................................................................................................................
Will not Vote
2
.
Now I'm going to read you the names of several political figures, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very
favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you have no opinion or have never heard of that
person, please say so.

Very
Fav
A. Hillary Clinton 26
B. Donald Trump 22
C. John Kasich
21

Smwt
Fav
16
16
30

Smwt
Unfav
9
8
17

Very
Unfav
46
51
17

(No
Opin/Ntrl)
3
3
11

(Never
heard)
0
4

(Prefer
not to
answer)
1
1
1

Total
Fav
42
38
51

Total
Unfav
54
59
33

Fav
Unfav
-12
-21
17

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?


...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Strongly
approve
...............................................................................................................................................................
31
.Somewhat
...............................................................................................................................................................
approve
20
.Somewhat
disapprove
...............................................................................................................................................................
11
.Strongly
disapprove
...............................................................................................................................................................
36
.(Don't
...............................................................................................................................................................
know/prefer not to answer)
2
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
approve
51
.Total
disapprove
...............................................................................................................................................................
47
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
approve - Total disapprove
...............................................................................................................................................................
4
.

TargetSmart Communications LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005


4

targetsmart.com

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll, Ohio Statewide: Frequencies, October 3-6 2016

In the election for President this November, if the election were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Hillary Clinton,
Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein -- for whom would you vote?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Hillary
...............................................................................................................................................................
Clinton
42
.Lean
...............................................................................................................................................................
Hillary Clinton
1
.Donald
...............................................................................................................................................................
Trump
39
.Lean
...............................................................................................................................................................
Donald Trump
1
.Gary
...............................................................................................................................................................
Johnson
7
.Lean
...............................................................................................................................................................
Gary Johnson
1
.Jill
...............................................................................................................................................................
Stein
2
.Lean
...............................................................................................................................................................
Jill Stein
0
.(Other
...............................................................................................................................................................
candidate)
1
.Lean
...............................................................................................................................................................
(Other candidate)
0
.(Undecided)
...............................................................................................................................................................3
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
Hillary Clinton
43
.Total
Donald Trump
...............................................................................................................................................................
40
.Total
Gary Johnson
...............................................................................................................................................................
8
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
Jill Stein
2
.Total
(Other candidate)
...............................................................................................................................................................
1
.Total
(Would not vote)
...............................................................................................................................................................
2
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
Clinton - Total Trump
3
.

TargetSmart Communications LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005


5

targetsmart.com

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll, Ohio Statewide: Frequencies, October 3-6 2016

Combined Two-Way Presidential Vote


...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Hillary
Clinton
...............................................................................................................................................................
44
.Lean
...............................................................................................................................................................
Hillary Clinton
2
.Donald
...............................................................................................................................................................
Trump
42
.Lean
Donald Trump
...............................................................................................................................................................
2
.(Undecided)
...............................................................................................................................................................4
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
Hillary Clinton
46
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
Donald Trump
43
.Total
(Would not vote)
...............................................................................................................................................................
7
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
Clinton - Total Trump
...............................................................................................................................................................
2
.
(Effective Base: 370)
(ASKED OF CLINTON SUPPORTERS) And would you say your vote for president is more a vote FOR Hillary Clinton or AGAINST
Donald Trump?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.For
Clinton
...............................................................................................................................................................
56
.Against
Trump
...............................................................................................................................................................
41
.(Unsure/prefer
...............................................................................................................................................................
not to answer)
3
.
(Effective Base: 353)
(ASKED OF TRUMP SUPPORTERS) And would you say your vote for president is more a vote FOR Donald Trump or AGAINST
Hillary Clinton?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.For
...............................................................................................................................................................
Trump
47
.Against
...............................................................................................................................................................
Clinton
49
.(Unsure/prefer
not to answer)
...............................................................................................................................................................
4
.

TargetSmart Communications

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005


4 of 10
6

targetsmart.com

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll, Ohio Statewide: Frequencies, October 3-6 2016

And yes or no, did you watch the first Presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on Monday,
September 26th?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Yes
...............................................................................................................................................................
80
.No
...............................................................................................................................................................
20
.(Don't
know/prefer not to answer)
...............................................................................................................................................................
.
(Effective Base: 646)
(ASKED OF THOSE WHO WATCHED THE FIRST DEBATE) And would you say Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump won the debate?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Hillary
...............................................................................................................................................................
Clinton
62
.Donald
Trump
...............................................................................................................................................................
17
.(Neither
candidate/tie/no clear winner)
...............................................................................................................................................................
19
.(Don't
...............................................................................................................................................................
know/prefer not to answer)
2
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Clinton
- Trump
...............................................................................................................................................................
45
.
(Effective Base: 646)
(ASKED OF THOSE WHO WATCHED THE FIRST DEBATE) And did Hillary Clinton's performance in the debate make you more
or less likely to support her for President, or did it make no difference?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Much
more likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
17
.Somewhat
...............................................................................................................................................................
more likely
9
.Somewhat
less likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
4
.Much
less likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
14
.Did
...............................................................................................................................................................
not make a difference/neither more nor less likely
56
.(Don't
know/prefer not to answer)
...............................................................................................................................................................
1
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
more likely
25
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
less likely
18
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
more likely - Total less likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
8
.

TargetSmart Communications LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005


7

targetsmart.com

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll, Ohio Statewide: Frequencies, October 3-6 2016

(Effective Base: 646)


(ASKED OF THOSE WHO WATCHED THE FIRST DEBATE) And did Donald Trump's performance in the debate make you more
or less likely to support him for President, or did it make no difference?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Much
more likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
7
.Somewhat
...............................................................................................................................................................
more likely
5
.Somewhat
...............................................................................................................................................................
less likely
8
.Much
less likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
24
.Did
...............................................................................................................................................................
not make a difference/neither more nor less likely
55
.(Don't
...............................................................................................................................................................
know/prefer not to answer)
1
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
more likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
12
.Total
less likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
32
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
more likely - Total less likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
-20
.
And in the last week or so, have you seen, read, or heard anything about former Miss Universe Alicia Machado?
Has what you have seen, read, or heard about Alicia Machado made you more or less likely to support Donald Trump for
President, or has it made no difference?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.No
...............................................................................................................................................................
- Have not seen, read, or heard anything
30
.Yes
- Much more likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
3
.Yes
- Somewhat more likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
1
.Yes
...............................................................................................................................................................
- Somewhat less likely
5
.Yes
- Much less likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
17
.Yes
- Made no difference
...............................................................................................................................................................
43
.(Don't
...............................................................................................................................................................
know/prefer not to answer)
2
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
More Likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
5
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
Less Likely
21
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
Yes
69
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
more likely - Total less likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
-17
.

TargetSmart Communications LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005


8

targetsmart.com

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll, Ohio Statewide: Frequencies, October 3-6 2016

And in the last week or so, have you seen, read, or heard anything about Donald Trump's tax returns?
Has what you have seen, read, or heard about Donald Trump's tax returns made you more or less likely to support Donald
Trump for President, or has it made no difference?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.No
...............................................................................................................................................................
- Have not seen, read, or heard anything
15
.Yes
...............................................................................................................................................................
- Much more likely
5
.Yes
...............................................................................................................................................................
- Somewhat more likely
3
.Yes
...............................................................................................................................................................
- Somewhat less likely
4
.Yes
...............................................................................................................................................................
- Much less likely
21
.Yes
...............................................................................................................................................................
- Made no difference
52
.(Don't
...............................................................................................................................................................
know/prefer not to answer)
1
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
More Likely
7
.Total
Less Likely
...............................................................................................................................................................
26
.Total
Yes
...............................................................................................................................................................
85
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
more likely - Total less likely
-19
.
As you may know, Donald Trump has not released his federal income tax returns to the public. Do you think that is because
Trump is concerned details from the tax returns will cause political problems for him; OR because Trump is under a routine
IRS audit, and as a result his attorneys have recommended he keep his tax returns private?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Will
cause political problems
...............................................................................................................................................................
45
.Routine
...............................................................................................................................................................
IRS audit
25
.(Both)
...............................................................................................................................................................5
.(Neither)
...............................................................................................................................................................6
.(Don't
...............................................................................................................................................................
know/unsure)
18
.(Prefer
not to answer)
...............................................................................................................................................................
1
.
As you may know, Hillary Clinton once advocated for the Trans Pacific Partnership free trade deal, also known as TPP, but
has now come out against the TPP. Do you think Clinton is against the TPP now and will remain against it in the future; OR
Clinton is against the TPP for political reasons now and will change her position to support TPP in the future?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Will
...............................................................................................................................................................
remain against TPP
20
.Will
change position on TPP in future
...............................................................................................................................................................
38
.(Both)
...............................................................................................................................................................2
.(Neither)
...............................................................................................................................................................1
.(Don't
know/unsure)
...............................................................................................................................................................
37
.(Prefer
...............................................................................................................................................................
not to answer)
2
.

TargetSmart Communications LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005


9

targetsmart.com

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll, Ohio Statewide: Frequencies, October 3-6 2016

Now, I'd like to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat,
a Republican, an independent, or something else?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Strong
...............................................................................................................................................................
Democrat
24
.Weak
...............................................................................................................................................................
Democrat
8
.Independent-lean
Democrat
...............................................................................................................................................................
11
.Independent
...............................................................................................................................................................
10
.Independent-lean
...............................................................................................................................................................
Republican
15
.Weak
Republican
...............................................................................................................................................................
11
.Strong
...............................................................................................................................................................
Republican
21
.(Don't
...............................................................................................................................................................
know/Refused)
0
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Democrat
...............................................................................................................................................................
31
.Independent
...............................................................................................................................................................
with Leaners
36
.Republican
...............................................................................................................................................................
32
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Democrat
...............................................................................................................................................................
- Republican
-1
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Democrat
and Ind. Lean Dem
...............................................................................................................................................................
42
.Pure
Independent
...............................................................................................................................................................
10
.Republican
...............................................................................................................................................................
and Ind. Lean Repub
47
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Democrat
and Ind. Lean Dem - Republican and Ind. Lean Repub
...............................................................................................................................................................
-5
.
In general, would you describe your political views as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or
very conservative?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Very
...............................................................................................................................................................
liberal
10
.Somewhat
...............................................................................................................................................................
liberal
14
.Moderate
...............................................................................................................................................................
30
.Somewhat
...............................................................................................................................................................
conservative
26
.Very
...............................................................................................................................................................
conservative
16
.(Prefer
not to answer)
...............................................................................................................................................................
3
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
Liberal
24
.Total
...............................................................................................................................................................
Conservative
43
.

TargetSmart Communications LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005


10

targetsmart.com

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll, Ohio Statewide: Frequencies, October 3-6 2016

What is the last year of schooling that you have completed?


...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.1
- 11th grade
...............................................................................................................................................................
2
.High
...............................................................................................................................................................
school graduate
22
.Trade/technical/vocational
...............................................................................................................................................................
school
3
.Some
college/associates degree
...............................................................................................................................................................
22
.Four-year
...............................................................................................................................................................
college graduate/bachelor's degree
30
.Post-graduate
...............................................................................................................................................................
school/masters/PhD
20
.(Prefer
not to answer)
...............................................................................................................................................................
1
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.H.S.
or less
...............................................................................................................................................................
24
.Post
...............................................................................................................................................................
H.S.
25
.College
...............................................................................................................................................................
Graduate
50
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Not
...............................................................................................................................................................
College
49
.
What is your marital status -- are you married, single, separated, divorced, or widowed?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Married
...............................................................................................................................................................
62
.Single
...............................................................................................................................................................
20
.Separated/divorced
...............................................................................................................................................................9
.Widowed
...............................................................................................................................................................7
.(Don't
...............................................................................................................................................................
know/prefer not to answer)
1
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.Unmarried
...............................................................................................................................................................
36
.
What is your religion, if any? Are you Protestant, Roman Catholic, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, Atheist, Agnostic, something
else, or nothing in particular?
(IF PROTESTANT/CHRISTIAN IN RELIGION) Yes or no, would you describe yourself as a "born-again" or evangelical Christian?
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.Protestant
...............................................................................................................................................................
49
.Roman
Catholic
...............................................................................................................................................................
24
.Mormon
...............................................................................................................................................................0
.Jewish
...............................................................................................................................................................1
.Muslim
...............................................................................................................................................................1
.Atheist
...............................................................................................................................................................3
.Agnostic
...............................................................................................................................................................3
.Something
else
...............................................................................................................................................................
2
.Nothing
...............................................................................................................................................................
in particular
13
.(Prefer
not to answer)
...............................................................................................................................................................
3
.
Evangelical
...............................................................................................................................................................
28
.

TargetSmart Communications LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005


11

targetsmart.com

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll, Ohio Statewide: Frequencies, October 3-6 2016

What is your race?

Media Market

...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.White
...............................................................................................................................................................
83
.Black
...............................................................................................................................................................
14
.Hispanic
...............................................................................................................................................................2
.Asian/Pacific
...............................................................................................................................................................
Islander
0
.Other
...............................................................................................................................................................1
.(Prefer
not to answer)
...............................................................................................................................................................
0
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
.
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.
Cincinnati
...............................................................................................................................................................
16
.Cleveland
...............................................................................................................................................................
33
.Columbus
...............................................................................................................................................................
22
.Dayton
...............................................................................................................................................................
11
.Toledo
...............................................................................................................................................................8
.Youngstown
...............................................................................................................................................................5
.Other
...............................................................................................................................................................6
.

TargetSmart Partisan Score


...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.0
9.9
...............................................................................................................................................................
25
.10
- 39.9
...............................................................................................................................................................
15
.40
...............................................................................................................................................................
- 69.9
15
.70
89.9
...............................................................................................................................................................
14
.90
- 100
...............................................................................................................................................................
31
.
TargetSmart 2016 General Turnout Score
...............................................................................................................................................................
Total
.0
- 49.9
...............................................................................................................................................................
6
.50
...............................................................................................................................................................
- 69.9
11
.70
...............................................................................................................................................................
- 94.9
35
.95
- 100
...............................................................................................................................................................
48
.

TargetSmart Communications LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005


12

targetsmart.com

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll


Ohio Statewide
Survey Methodology
The TargetSmart William & Mary Poll was conducted using a blended web/phone data collection
approach. In total, the poll reached 812 registered Ohio voters. 617 telephone interviews were
conducted from October 3-6, 2016, with telephone numbers being selected at random from the
TargetSmart voter file. 195 online interviews were conducted from October 4-5, 2016 among panelists
from six leading online opt-in panel providers who were matched to the TargetSmart voter file. Results
were weighted by TargetSmart Partisanship Score, TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score,
age, gender, race, education level, and media market to match the demographic characteristics of
registered voters in the state.
A second round of weighting was applied to the data to reflect likely 2016 voters in the state,
using deviation from the average TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout score in the survey dataset
to proportionally up-weight respondents with higher than average turnout scores, and down-weight
respondents with lower than average turnout scores. The TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout
model is an ensemble method classifier model that was created to predict the likelihood that an
individual will vote in the 2016 general election. No margins or sampling error are calculated for this
survey, as this statistic is only applicable to fully randomly sampled surveys, which this survey is not due
to its partial reliance on online interviews.

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

13

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll


Party

Total

Dem

2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

Ohio Statewide
TargetSmart Partisanship Score

Ind

Rep

90+

70 - 89.99

30 - 69.99

10 - 29.99

0 - 9.99

100

-100

59

10

-15

-19

-62

100

-10

-100

71

10

-21

-34

-80

Party ID Difference...

Four-Way Presidential Vote...


Total Answering

(812)

(254)

(293)

(262)

(252)

(110)

(165)

(82)

(204)

Total Hillary Clinton


Total Donald Trump
Total Gary Johnson
Total Jill Stein
Total (Other candidate)

43
40
8
2
1

88
5
2
2
-

35
40
14
3
1

9
74
8
1
3

76
12
4
3
0

49
36
10
1
-

37
47
7
3
-

32
45
13
3

9
70
12
2
4

(Undecided)

Total (Would not vote)

Total Clinton - Total Trump

83

-5

-65

63

13

-10

-12

-61

Two-Way Presidential Vote...


Total Answering

(812)

(254)

(293)

(262)

(252)

(110)

(165)

(82)

(204)

Total Hillary Clinton


Total Donald Trump

46
43

90
5

39
46

10
77

78
13

51
37

41
49

35
49

11
77

(Undecided)

Total (Would not vote)

10

12

Total Clinton - Total Trump

85

-7

-68

65

13

-9

-14

-67

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll


Gender

Total

Men

Race

Women White

Black

Non White

Ohio Statewide

White/Gender

Marital Status

Gender/Marital

White White
Men Women

Marr
ied

Unmarr
ied

Marr
ied
Men

Marr Unmarr
Unmarr
ied
ied
ied Men Women Women

Party ID Difference...
2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

-9

-10

58

42

-17

-3

-11

14

-19

-2

18

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-16

-17

73

56

-28

-7

-16

13

-28

-4

19

Four-Way Presidential Vote...


Total Answering

(812)

(387)

(424)

(671)

(110)

(137)

(320)

(351)

(506)

(294)

(254)

(130)

(252)

(163)

Total Hillary Clinton


Total Donald Trump
Total Gary Johnson
Total Jill Stein
Total (Other candidate)

43
40
8
2
1

38
46
10
2
1

48
35
7
2
1

37
46
9
2
2

83
9
1
2
-

76
13
3
2
-

31
52
11
2
1

42
41
8
2
2

38
46
8
2
2

51
32
9
2
1

30
53
10
1
2

52
32
9
3
-

46
39
6
2
1

50
31
8
2
2

(Undecided)

Total (Would not vote)

Total Clinton - Total Trump

-8

13

-9

75

62

-21

-8

19

-23

20

19

Two-Way Presidential Vote...


Total Answering

(812)

(387)

(424)

(671)

(110)

(137)

(320)

(351)

(506)

(294)

(254)

(130)

(252)

(163)

Total Hillary Clinton


Total Donald Trump

46
43

41
49

50
38

39
49

85
9

77
15

34
55

44
44

40
50

54
34

32
57

56
34

48
42

53
34

(Undecided)

Total (Would not vote)

Total Clinton - Total Trump

-9

12

-10

77

62

-22

-10

20

-25

22

19

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll


Age

Education
Total
Coll
Grad

Total
Non Coll

Ohio Statewide

Gender/Education
Men
Non Coll

Men
Coll

White/Education

Women
Non - Women
Coll
Coll

White
Non Coll

Evangelical

White
Coll

Total
Evange
lical

White
Evange
lical

Total

18 - 49

50 and
over

2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

-1

-2

-4

-3

-16

-10

-9

-22

-39

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-3

-8

-6

-4

-10

-23

10

-19

-15

-30

-50

Party ID Difference...

Four-Way Presidential Vote...


Total Answering

(812)

(394)

(409)

(406)

(397)

(192)

(194)

(205)

(212)

(322)

(347)

(229)

(180)

Total Hillary Clinton


Total Donald Trump
Total Gary Johnson
Total Jill Stein
Total (Other candidate)

43
40
8
2
1

42
35
13
3
2

44
46
3
1
1

46
34
11
2
2

40
47
6
2
1

36
53
5
2
1

40
39
14
2
1

44
41
6
2
1

52
30
8
3
2

31
54
7
2
1

42
38
11
2
2

31
52
8
3
3

19
62
9
2
4

(Undecided)

Total (Would not vote)

Total Clinton - Total Trump

-3

12

-7

-17

22

-23

-21

-43

Two-Way Presidential Vote...


Total Answering

(812)

(394)

(409)

(406)

(397)

(192)

(194)

(205)

(212)

(322)

(347)

(229)

(180)

Total Hillary Clinton


Total Donald Trump

46
43

45
40

45
48

49
38

42
49

37
56

44
42

47
43

54
33

33
58

45
41

34
57

23
68

(Undecided)

Total (Would not vote)

10

10

11

10

Total Clinton - Total Trump

-3

12

-7

-19

21

-24

-23

-45

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll

Ohio Statewide

Media Market

Total

Clevel and
- Akron Colu mbus Cincin nati
Canton OH
OH
OH

Other

Party ID Difference...
2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

11

-12

-7

-3

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-10

-10

-11

Four-Way Presidential Vote...


Total Answering

(812)

(272)

(175)

(131)

(235)

Total Hillary Clinton


Total Donald Trump
Total Gary Johnson
Total Jill Stein
Total (Other candidate)

43
40
8
2
1

51
32
9
2
1

41
40
9
5
2

42
44
7
2
1

37
48
7
1
1

(Undecided)

Total (Would not vote)

Total Clinton - Total Trump

19

-2

-11

Two-Way Presidential Vote...


Total Answering

(812)

(272)

(175)

(131)

(235)

Total Hillary Clinton


Total Donald Trump

46
43

54
37

44
43

43
45

38
50

(Undecided)

Total (Would not vote)

Total Clinton - Total Trump

17

-2

-12

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll

Ohio Statewide

TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score

Total

95+

90+

85+

80+

0 - 79.99

2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

-11

-5

-2

-1

-1

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-16

-8

-5

-3

-10

Party ID Difference...

Four-Way Presidential Vote...


Total Answering

(812)

(388)

(500)

(566)

(608)

(204)

Total Hillary Clinton


Total Donald Trump
Total Gary Johnson
Total Jill Stein
Total (Other candidate)

43
40
8
2
1

42
44
7
1
2

45
40
8
2
2

46
39
7
2
2

46
39
7
2
2

35
43
12
2
-

(Undecided)

Total (Would not vote)

Total Clinton - Total Trump

-2

-8

Two-Way Presidential Vote...


Total Answering

(812)

(388)

(500)

(566)

(608)

(204)

Total Hillary Clinton


Total Donald Trump

46
43

43
48

47
43

48
42

48
42

38
47

(Undecided)

Total (Would not vote)

11

Total Clinton - Total Trump

-4

-9

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll


Party

Total

Dem

2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

Ohio Statewide
TargetSmart Partisanship Score

Ind

Rep

90+

70 - 89.99

30 - 69.99

10 - 29.99

0 - 9.99

100

-100

59

10

-15

-19

-62

100

-10

-100

71

10

-21

-34

-80

(370)

(229)

(114)

(25)

(198)

(56)

(67)

(29)

(22)

56
41
3

65
34
1

45
50
6

30
67
4

64
33
3

46
49
5

49
51
-

46
51
3

44
56
-

(353)

(14)

(135)

(203)

(33)

(41)

(81)

(40)

(158)

47
49
4

55
45
-

42
54
5

49
47
4

58
39
3

45
54
1

52
44
4

59
33
8

39
57
4

(812)

(254)

(293)

(262)

(252)

(110)

(165)

(82)

(204)

80
20
-

81
19
-

77
23
-

81
19
-

82
18
-

72
28
-

78
22
-

81
19
-

82
18
-

Party ID Difference...

For Clinton/Against Trump...


Total Answering
For Clinton
Against Trump
(Unsure/prefer not to answer)

For Trump/Against Clinton...


Total Answering
For Trump
Against Clinton
(Unsure/prefer not to answer)

Debate watch...
Total Answering
Yes
No
(Don't know/prefer not to answer)

Debate winner...
Total Answering

(646)

(205)

(226)

(212)

(206)

(79)

(128)

(66)

(167)

Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
(Neither candidate/tie/no clear winner)
(Don't know/prefer not to answer)

62
17
19
2

92
1
6
2

62
17
19
2

34
32
32
2

83
7
9
1

66
13
19
2

55
21
22
2

63
18
13
6

40
28
31
1

Clinton - Trump

45

91

45

76

52

34

45

12

Clinton's Debate Performance Influence on Her Support...


Total Answering

(646)

(205)

(226)

(212)

(206)

(79)

(128)

(66)

(167)

Much more likely


Somewhat more likely
Somewhat less likely
Much less likely
No difference
(Don't know/prefer not to answer)

17
9
4
14
56
1

36
10
1
1
52
1

13
11
5
16
56
-

2
6
5
25
60
1

30
11
3
6
49
1

20
13
6
11
48
1

16
8
3
13
59
1

9
5
1
11
74
-

1
6
5
28
59
1

Total more likely


Total less likely

25
18

45
2

24
21

8
30

41
9

33
17

24
15

14
12

8
33

Total more likely - Total less likely

44

-22

32

16

-25

Trump's Debate Performance Influence on His Support...


Total Answering

(646)

(205)

(226)

(212)

(206)

(79)

(128)

(66)

(167)

Much more likely


Somewhat more likely
Somewhat less likely
Much less likely
No difference
(Don't know/prefer not to answer)

7
5
8
24
55
1

0
1
4
46
48
1

6
4
10
23
56
2

14
9
10
5
61
1

2
3
5
41
47
1

8
7
8
24
51
3

6
2
7
20
63
2

7
0
11
27
55
-

11
10
11
5
62
1

Total more likely


Total less likely

12
32

1
50

10
32

23
14

6
46

15
32

8
27

7
37

21
16

Total more likely - Total less likely

-20

-48

-23

-41

-17

-19

-30

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll


Gender

Total

Men

Race

Women White

Black

Non White

Ohio Statewide

White/Gender

Marital Status

Gender/Marital

White White
Men Women

Marr
ied

Unmarr
ied

Marr
ied
Men

Marr Unmarr
Unmarr
ied
ied
ied Men Women Women

Party ID Difference...
2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

-9

-10

58

42

-17

-3

-11

14

-19

-2

18

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-16

-17

73

56

-28

-7

-16

13

-28

-4

19

(370)

(157)

(213)

(262)

(94)

(106)

(108)

(154)

(202)

(160)

(82)

(73)

(120)

(86)

56
41
3

52
45
3

60
38
2

56
42
2

61
36
3

57
40
4

53
44
3

59
40
1

53
43
4

60
39
1

52
44
4

51
47
2

53
43
4

67
33
-

(353)

(190)

(162)

(331)

(9)

(21)

(177)

(154)

(252)

(99)

(145)

(45)

(107)

(55)

47
49
4

48
48
3

45
51
5

47
49
4

59
28
13

46
48
6

47
49
4

46
50
4

46
50
4

47
48
5

47
48
5

52
48
-

45
52
3

43
48
9

(812)

(387)

(424)

(671)

(110)

(137)

(320)

(351)

(506)

(294)

(254)

(130)

(252)

(163)

80
20

78
22

81
19

81
19

75
25

75
25

78
22

83
17

80
20

79
21

78
22

78
22

82
18

80
20

For Clinton/Against Trump...


Total Answering
For Clinton
Against Trump
(Unsure/prefer not to answer)

For Trump/Against Clinton...


Total Answering
For Trump
Against Clinton
(Unsure/prefer not to answer)

Debate watch...
Total Answering
Yes
No
(Don't know/prefer not to
answer)

Debate winner...
Total Answering

(646)

(302)

(345)

(540)

(82)

(103)

(249)

(291)

(405)

(231)

(198)

(101)

(208)

(130)

Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
(Neither candidate/tie/no clear
winner)
(Don't know/prefer not to
answer)

62
17

59
16

64
17

58
19

86
5

82
7

54
19

62
18

59
19

68
14

54
18

70
12

63
19

66
16

19

23

16

21

11

25

17

20

17

25

17

16

16

Clinton - Trump

45

43

47

40

82

74

35

44

40

53

36

58

44

50

Clinton's Debate Performance Influence on Her Support...


Total Answering

(646)

(302)

(345)

(540)

(82)

(103)

(249)

(291)

(405)

(231)

(198)

(101)

(208)

(130)

Much more likely


Somewhat more likely
Somewhat less likely
Much less likely
No difference
(Don't know/prefer not to
answer)

17
9
4
14
56

14
9
4
15
58

19
9
3
14
54

13
9
4
16
57

40
11
1
2
46

34
9
2
2
52

11
8
4
17
60

15
9
4
16
54

15
9
4
16
56

20
8
4
11
56

12
8
3
17
60

18
11
5
9
56

17
10
4
15
53

21
6
2
12
56

Total more likely


Total less likely

25
18

23
18

28
17

22
20

51
3

44
5

19
21

25
20

24
20

28
14

20
20

29
14

28
19

27
15

Total more likely - Total less likely

11

47

39

-2

13

15

12

Trump's Debate Performance Influence on His Support...


Total Answering

(646)

(302)

(345)

(540)

(82)

(103)

(249)

(291)

(405)

(231)

(198)

(101)

(208)

(130)

Much more likely


Somewhat more likely
Somewhat less likely
Much less likely
No difference
(Don't know/prefer not to
answer)

7
5
8
24
55

7
4
7
22
59

6
5
8
26
52

8
6
8
21
56

2
42
56

1
6
39
54

8
5
7
18
60

8
6
9
24
51

7
5
9
21
56

5
4
5
28
55

8
5
8
19
59

5
3
6
27
58

7
5
11
24
53

5
6
5
29
53

Total more likely


Total less likely

12
32

11
29

12
35

13
29

44

1
45

13
25

14
33

13
31

10
33

13
27

8
33

12
34

11
34

Total more likely - Total less likely

-20

-18

-23

-16

44

-43

-12

-19

-18

-24

-14

-25

-22

-23

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll


Age

Education
Total
Coll
Grad

Total
Non Coll

Ohio Statewide

Gender/Education
Men
Non Coll

Men
Coll

White/Education

Women
Non - Women
Coll
Coll

White
Non Coll

Evangelical

White
Coll

Total
Evange
lical

White
Evange
lical

Total

18 - 49

50 and
over

2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

-1

-2

-4

-3

-16

-10

-9

-22

-39

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-3

-8

-6

-4

-10

-23

10

-19

-15

-30

-50

(370)

(179)

(184)

(200)

(167)

(71)

(85)

(96)

(114)

(107)

(156)

(78)

(41)

56
41
3

49
46
4

63
36
1

54
44
2

59
38
3

55
42
3

49
48
3

62
35
3

57
42
2

58
38
4

55
44
1

58
42
-

61
39
-

(353)

(157)

(196)

(153)

(196)

(107)

(83)

(89)

(70)

(185)

(144)

(131)

(122)

47
49
4

45
53
3

48
47
5

36
59
5

55
41
3

56
41
3

38
58
4

54
42
4

33
61
6

55
42
3

36
59
6

47
48
5

47
49
4

(812)

(394)

(409)

(406)

(397)

(192)

(194)

(205)

(212)

(322)

(347)

(229)

(180)

80
20
-

78
22
-

81
19
-

82
18
-

78
22
-

74
26
-

82
18
-

81
19
-

82
18
-

79
21
-

83
17
-

78
22
-

78
22
-

Party ID Difference...

For Clinton/Against Trump...


Total Answering
For Clinton
Against Trump
(Unsure/prefer not to answer)

For Trump/Against Clinton...


Total Answering
For Trump
Against Clinton
(Unsure/prefer not to answer)

Debate watch...
Total Answering
Yes
No
(Don't know/prefer not to answer)

Debate winner...
Total Answering

(646)

(307)

(333)

(333)

(308)

(142)

(159)

(167)

(174)

(253)

(286)

(179)

(141)

Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
(Neither candidate/tie/no clear
winner)
(Don't know/prefer not to answer)

62
17

65
18

59
16

66
14

58
20

58
19

61
14

59
22

71
13

53
23

63
15

49
23

43
26

19

16

22

20

19

21

24

16

15

21

20

26

29

Clinton - Trump

45

47

43

52

38

39

47

37

57

30

48

25

17

Clinton's Debate Performance Influence on Her Support...


Total Answering

(646)

(307)

(333)

(333)

(308)

(142)

(159)

(167)

(174)

(253)

(286)

(179)

(141)

Much more likely


Somewhat more likely
Somewhat less likely
Much less likely
No difference
(Don't know/prefer not to answer)

17
9
4
14
56
1

13
11
5
11
59
0

19
7
2
17
53
1

15
11
4
12
57
-

18
7
3
16
55
2

18
6
4
16
56
1

10
12
4
13
61
-

18
7
3
16
54
3

20
10
4
12
54
-

12
6
3
20
57
2

14
12
4
14
56
-

11
9
3
20
55
2

7
7
4
23
57
2

Total more likely


Total less likely

25
18

24
16

26
19

26
16

24
19

24
19

22
17

25
19

30
16

18
23

26
18

20
23

14
27

Total more likely - Total less likely

10

15

-5

-3

-13

Trump's Debate Performance Influence on His Support...


Total Answering

(646)

(307)

(333)

(333)

(308)

(142)

(159)

(167)

(174)

(253)

(286)

(179)

(141)

Much more likely


Somewhat more likely
Somewhat less likely
Much less likely
No difference
(Don't know/prefer not to answer)

7
5
8
24
55
1

5
4
12
20
58
1

8
6
4
27
53
2

4
4
9
23
59
1

9
6
6
25
52
2

8
4
6
24
57
2

6
4
9
19
61
1

10
7
7
27
47
2

3
4
10
26
57
1

11
7
6
20
54
2

5
5
10
23
57
1

6
8
8
18
59
2

7
10
8
12
61
2

Total more likely


Total less likely

12
32

9
33

14
31

8
32

15
32

12
29

10
29

17
33

7
36

18
26

9
33

14
26

17
20

Total more likely - Total less likely

-20

-24

-17

-24

-17

-17

-19

-16

-29

-8

-23

-11

-3

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll

Ohio Statewide

Media Market

Total

Clevel and
- Akron Colu mbus Cincin nati
Canton OH
OH
OH

Other

Party ID Difference...
2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

11

-12

-7

-3

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-10

-10

-11

(370)

(147)

(77)

(57)

(89)

56
41
3

54
43
3

51
45
4

58
41
1

63
35
2

(353)

(100)

(75)

(59)

(118)

47
49
4

40
54
6

50
47
2

40
51
9

53
46
1

(812)

(272)

(175)

(131)

(235)

80
20
-

78
22
-

79
21
-

78
22
-

83
17
-

For Clinton/Against Trump...


Total Answering
For Clinton
Against Trump
(Unsure/prefer not to answer)

For Trump/Against Clinton...


Total Answering
For Trump
Against Clinton
(Unsure/prefer not to answer)

Debate watch...
Total Answering
Yes
No
(Don't know/prefer not to answer)

Debate winner...
Total Answering

(646)

(211)

(138)

(101)

(196)

Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
(Neither candidate/tie/no clear winner)
(Don't know/prefer not to answer)

62
17
19
2

68
14
17
1

58
17
23
2

66
11
22
1

56
23
17
3

Clinton - Trump

45

54

41

56

33

Clinton's Debate Performance Influence on Her Support...


Total Answering

(646)

(211)

(138)

(101)

(196)

Much more likely


Somewhat more likely
Somewhat less likely
Much less likely
No difference
(Don't know/prefer not to answer)

17
9
4
14
56
1

21
12
1
12
53
1

15
10
6
14
54
1

11
7
2
12
69
-

16
6
5
18
54
2

Total more likely


Total less likely

25
18

33
13

25
20

18
13

21
23

Total more likely - Total less likely

20

-2

Trump's Debate Performance Influence on His Support...


Total Answering

(646)

(211)

(138)

(101)

(196)

Much more likely


Somewhat more likely
Somewhat less likely
Much less likely
No difference
(Don't know/prefer not to answer)

7
5
8
24
55
1

5
5
9
33
47
1

7
4
11
22
56
1

6
5
7
18
65
-

9
5
5
19
58
3

Total more likely


Total less likely

12
32

10
42

11
33

11
24

15
24

Total more likely - Total less likely

-20

-33

-22

-13

-10

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll

Ohio Statewide

TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score

Total

95+

90+

85+

80+

0 - 79.99

2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

-11

-5

-2

-1

-1

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-16

-8

-5

-3

-10

(370)

(169)

(235)

(270)

(293)

(77)

56
41
3

64
35
1

57
40
3

57
40
3

58
39
3

49
48
3

(353)

(185)

(217)

(240)

(256)

(96)

47
49
4

44
53
4

42
55
3

43
53
4

43
53
4

56
40
4

(812)

(388)

(500)

(566)

(608)

(204)

80
20
-

82
18
-

81
19
-

80
20
-

79
21
-

81
19
-

Party ID Difference...

For Clinton/Against Trump...


Total Answering
For Clinton
Against Trump
(Unsure/prefer not to answer)

For Trump/Against Clinton...


Total Answering
For Trump
Against Clinton
(Unsure/prefer not to answer)

Debate watch...
Total Answering
Yes
No
(Don't know/prefer not to answer)

Debate winner...
Total Answering

(646)

(319)

(404)

(451)

(482)

(164)

Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
(Neither candidate/tie/no clear winner)
(Don't know/prefer not to answer)

62
17
19
2

62
17
19
2

64
15
19
2

64
16
18
2

64
16
18
2

56
21
22
2

Clinton - Trump

45

46

48

48

49

35

Clinton's Debate Performance Influence on Her Support...


Total Answering

(646)

(319)

(404)

(451)

(482)

(164)

Much more likely


Somewhat more likely
Somewhat less likely
Much less likely
No difference
(Don't know/prefer not to answer)

17
9
4
14
56
1

15
12
3
17
53
0

16
11
3
15
55
0

17
10
2
15
54
1

17
10
3
15
54
1

15
6
6
11
61
1

Total more likely


Total less likely

25
18

27
20

27
18

27
18

27
18

21
17

Total more likely - Total less likely

10

Trump's Debate Performance Influence on His Support...


Total Answering

(646)

(319)

(404)

(451)

(482)

(164)

Much more likely


Somewhat more likely
Somewhat less likely
Much less likely
No difference
(Don't know/prefer not to answer)

7
5
8
24
55
1

6
6
8
24
56
0

5
5
8
26
55
1

6
5
8
25
55
1

6
5
8
25
55
1

9
4
7
22
55
2

Total more likely


Total less likely

12
32

12
32

10
34

11
33

11
33

13
30

Total more likely - Total less likely

-20

-20

-23

-22

-22

-16

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll


Party

Total

Dem

2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

Ohio Statewide
TargetSmart Partisanship Score

Ind

Rep

90+

70 - 89.99

30 - 69.99

10 - 29.99

0 - 9.99

100

-100

59

10

-15

-19

-62

100

-10

-100

71

10

-21

-34

-80

Party ID Difference...

Alicia Machado Influence on Support for Trump...


Total Answering

(812)

(254)

(293)

(262)

(252)

(110)

(165)

(82)

(204)

Have not seen/heard


Yes - Much more likely
Yes - Somewhat more likely
Yes - Somewhat less likely
Yes - Much less likely
Yes - Made no difference
(Don't know)

30
3
1
5
17
43
2

28
2
1
4
32
31
2

30
3
1
5
15
45
1

31
5
2
5
4
52
2

29
3
1
3
27
38
1

28
2
6
23
39
2

36
4
1
4
13
40
3

27
3
3
17
49
1

29
5
2
7
3
52
2

Total More Likely


Total Less Likely

5
21

3
36

4
20

7
8

3
29

2
29

5
18

3
20

7
10

Total more likely - Total less likely

-17

-33

-15

-2

-26

-26

-13

-17

-3

Total Yes Have Seen/Heard

69

71

69

67

70

70

62

72

70

Failure to Release Tax Returns Influence on Support for Trump...


Total Answering

(812)

(254)

(293)

(262)

(252)

(110)

(165)

(82)

(204)

Have not seen/heard


Yes - Much more likely
Yes - Somewhat more likely
Yes - Somewhat less likely
Yes - Much less likely
Yes - Made no difference
(Don't know)

15
5
3
4
21
52
1

18
2
1
4
40
32
1

13
5
2
5
20
56
-

14
6
5
4
5
66
1

17
4
2
3
37
36
1

17
4
2
5
26
46
1

18
4
1
7
17
54
-

13
4
1
3
22
55
2

10
7
6
5
3
70
0

Total More Likely


Total Less Likely

7
26

4
45

7
25

10
9

5
40

6
30

5
24

5
25

12
7

Total more likely - Total less likely

-19

-41

-17

-35

-24

-19

-20

Total Yes Have Seen/Heard

85

81

87

86

82

82

82

85

90

(812)

(254)

(293)

(262)

(252)

(110)

(165)

(82)

(204)

45
25
5
6
18
1

70
9
5
2
14
0

43
28
3
6
19
2

25
37
7
11
19
1

60
15
4
4
17
1

46
27
4
5
18
1

44
25
4
6
18
3

34
26
6
8
25
1

32
35
6
10
15
2

(812)

(254)

(293)

(262)

(252)

(110)

(165)

(82)

(204)

20
38
2
1
37
2

28
16
2
1
50
3

21
45
2
1
30
2

12
53
3
2
31
-

27
23
3
1
44
2

26
35
1
0
37
2

18
39
1
1
41
1

14
40
1
3
39
3

13
58
3
2
24
0

Reason Trump Has Not Released Tax Returns...


Total Answering
Will cause political problems
Routine IRS audit
(Both)
(Neither)
(Don't know/unsure)
(Prefer not to answer)

Clinton's Future Stance on TPP...


Total Answering
Will remain against TPP
Will change position
(Both)
(Neither)
(Don't know/unsure)
(Prefer not to answer)

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll


Gender

Total

Men

Race

Women White

Black

Non White

Ohio Statewide

White/Gender

Marital Status

Gender/Marital

White White
Men Women

Marr
ied

Unmarr
ied

Marr
ied
Men

Marr Unmarr
Unmarr
ied
ied
ied Men Women Women

Party ID Difference...
2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

-9

-10

58

42

-17

-3

-11

14

-19

-2

18

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-16

-17

73

56

-28

-7

-16

13

-28

-4

19

Alicia Machado Influence on Support for Trump...


Total Answering

(812)

(387)

(424)

(671)

(110)

(137)

(320)

(351)

(506)

(294)

(254)

(130)

(252)

(163)

Have not seen/heard


Yes - Much more likely
Yes - Somewhat more likely
Yes - Somewhat less likely
Yes - Much less likely
Yes - Made no difference
(Don't know)

30
3
1
5
17
43
2

30
3
1
5
14
44
2

30
3
1
4
19
42
1

27
3
1
5
16
46
2

47
2
1
1
19
30
-

44
3
1
1
20
31
-

27
4
2
6
12
48
2

27
3
1
5
19
43
2

26
4
2
6
17
46
1

37
3
1
3
15
38
3

25
4
1
6
14
49
1

39
3
1
4
16
36
2

26
4
2
6
20
42
0

36
3
1
2
15
41
3

Total More Likely


Total Less Likely

5
21

5
20

5
22

5
21

3
20

4
21

5
18

4
24

5
23

4
18

5
19

4
20

5
26

4
16

Total more likely - Total less likely

-17

-15

-18

-16

-17

-18

-13

-20

-18

-14

-14

-16

-21

-13

Total Yes Have Seen/Heard

69

68

69

71

53

56

71

72

74

60

73

59

74

61

Failure to Release Tax Returns Influence on Support for Trump...


Total Answering

(812)

(387)

(424)

(671)

(110)

(137)

(320)

(351)

(506)

(294)

(254)

(130)

(252)

(163)

Have not seen/heard


Yes - Much more likely
Yes - Somewhat more likely
Yes - Somewhat less likely
Yes - Much less likely
Yes - Made no difference
(Don't know)

15
5
3
4
21
52
1

15
6
3
4
21
51
0

15
3
2
5
22
52
1

13
5
3
5
20
55
1

27
2
2
1
32
35
1

25
2
2
1
30
39
1

12
7
3
5
19
54
0

13
3
2
5
20
55
1

11
5
2
5
20
56
0

20
4
3
3
23
46
1

10
7
3
5
19
55
-

22
3
3
3
25
43
1

12
3
1
6
22
56
0

18
4
4
3
21
48
2

Total More Likely


Total Less Likely

7
26

9
25

6
26

8
25

4
33

4
31

10
24

6
26

7
26

7
26

10
24

6
28

4
27

8
24

Total more likely - Total less likely

-19

-16

-21

-17

-29

-27

-14

-20

-18

-19

-13

-22

-23

-16

Total Yes Have Seen/Heard

85

85

84

87

72

74

88

86

88

79

90

77

87

80

Reason Trump Has Not Released Tax Returns...


Total Answering

(812)

(387)

(424)

(671)

(110)

(137)

(320)

(351)

(506)

(294)

(254)

(130)

(252)

(163)

45
25
5
6
18
1

44
26
5
8
15
1

46
24
4
5
20
1

44
26
5
7
17
1

55
17
2
4
23
-

52
22
2
3
20
0

42
26
6
9
15
2

46
25
4
5
19
1

45
26
5
7
15
1

45
23
4
6
21
2

43
26
6
9
15
1

47
26
3
7
15
2

48
26
4
5
16
0

43
21
5
4
25
2

(812)

(387)

(424)

(671)

(110)

(137)

(320)

(351)

(506)

(294)

(254)

(130)

(252)

(163)

20
38
2
1
37
2

22
47
2
1
28
1

19
31
2
1
45
2

20
40
2
2
36
1

25
23
4
46
2

22
30
3
0
41
3

21
48
2
2
28
0

19
33
2
2
43
2

20
42
3
2
32
1

21
33
1
0
43
2

21
52
2
2
22
1

23
36
1
0
39
-

19
32
3
2
43
1

19
31
1
45
3

Will cause political problems


Routine IRS audit
(Both)
(Neither)
(Don't know/unsure)
(Prefer not to answer)

Clinton's Future Stance on TPP...


Total Answering
Will remain against TPP
Will change position
(Both)
(Neither)
(Don't know/unsure)
(Prefer not to answer)

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll


Age

Education
Total
Coll
Grad

Total
Non Coll

Ohio Statewide

Gender/Education
Men
Non Coll

Men
Coll

White/Education

Women
Non - Women
Coll
Coll

White
Non Coll

Evangelical

White
Coll

Total
Evange
lical

White
Evange
lical

Total

18 - 49

50 and
over

2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

-1

-2

-4

-3

-16

-10

-9

-22

-39

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-3

-8

-6

-4

-10

-23

10

-19

-15

-30

-50

Party ID Difference...

Alicia Machado Influence on Support for Trump...


Total Answering

(812)

(394)

(409)

(406)

(397)

(192)

(194)

(205)

(212)

(322)

(347)

(229)

(180)

Have not seen/heard


Yes - Much more likely
Yes - Somewhat more likely
Yes - Somewhat less likely
Yes - Much less likely
Yes - Made no difference
(Don't know)

30
3
1
5
17
43
2

32
2
2
5
16
42
1

28
5
1
4
18
44
2

24
4
2
7
17
46
1

35
3
1
2
16
40
2

39
3
1
2
13
40
2

21
4
2
8
15
49
1

32
3
1
2
19
40
2

27
4
2
6
18
44
0

32
3
1
3
14
45
3

22
4
2
7
17
47
1

34
3
3
2
13
42
2

30
4
4
2
11
46
2

Total More Likely


Total Less Likely

5
21

4
21

5
22

6
24

4
19

3
16

6
23

4
22

5
24

4
17

5
25

6
16

8
13

Total more likely - Total less likely

-17

-17

-16

-18

-15

-12

-18

-18

-18

-13

-19

-9

-6

Total Yes Have Seen/Heard

69

67

70

75

62

59

78

66

73

65

77

64

67

Failure to Release Tax Returns Influence on Support for Trump...


Total Answering

(812)

(394)

(409)

(406)

(397)

(192)

(194)

(205)

(212)

(322)

(347)

(229)

(180)

Have not seen/heard


Yes - Much more likely
Yes - Somewhat more likely
Yes - Somewhat less likely
Yes - Much less likely
Yes - Made no difference
(Don't know)

15
5
3
4
21
52
1

16
3
2
6
19
53
0

13
6
3
3
24
50
1

11
5
2
6
24
53
0

19
4
3
3
19
51
1

21
4
4
2
19
51
-

9
8
2
7
23
51
0

16
4
2
5
19
51
2

13
3
2
4
24
54
-

16
5
3
4
16
56
1

10
5
3
6
23
53
0

17
6
4
5
16
52
0

15
7
4
5
12
57
1

Total More Likely


Total Less Likely

7
26

5
25

9
27

7
29

7
23

8
21

10
30

6
24

5
29

7
20

8
29

10
21

11
17

Total more likely - Total less likely

-19

-20

-17

-22

-16

-13

-20

-18

-24

-13

-21

-10

-6

Total Yes Have Seen/Heard

85

83

87

89

81

79

91

82

87

84

90

83

85

Reason Trump Has Not Released Tax Returns...


Total Answering
Will cause political problems
Routine IRS audit
(Both)
(Neither)
(Don't know/unsure)
(Prefer not to answer)

(812)

(394)

(409)

(406)

(397)

(192)

(194)

(205)

(212)

(322)

(347)

(229)

(180)

45
25
5
6
18
1

48
25
4
6
16
1

42
25
5
7
19
1

51
22
6
7
13
0

40
28
3
6
22
2

38
30
4
8
17
2

50
23
6
8
13
0

41
26
3
3
26
2

52
22
6
6
13
1

38
28
4
6
21
2

50
23
6
8
13
1

37
34
2
4
22
1

35
37
3
5
19
1

(812)

(394)

(409)

(406)

(397)

(192)

(194)

(205)

(212)

(322)

(347)

(229)

(180)

20
38
2
1
37
2

18
40
2
2
37
1

22
37
2
1
36
2

23
40
2
2
32
2

18
37
2
1
41
1

18
44
2
1
35
0

25
49
2
2
20
2

18
31
2
1
46
3

20
31
3
2
42
1

18
40
2
1
38
1

22
40
2
2
33
1

15
43
1
2
38
1

14
48
1
3
34
1

Clinton's Future Stance on TPP...


Total Answering
Will remain against TPP
Will change position
(Both)
(Neither)
(Don't know/unsure)
(Prefer not to answer)

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll

Ohio Statewide

Media Market
Clevel and
- Akron Colu mbus Cincin nati
Canton OH
OH
OH

Total

Other

Party ID Difference...
2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

11

-12

-7

-3

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-10

-10

-11

Alicia Machado Influence on Support for Trump...


Total Answering

(812)

(272)

(175)

(131)

(235)

Have not seen/heard


Yes - Much more likely
Yes - Somewhat more likely
Yes - Somewhat less likely
Yes - Much less likely
Yes - Made no difference
(Don't know)

30
3
1
5
17
43
2

30
4
1
3
21
40
1

25
2
1
7
16
48
2

29
2
7
10
49
3

33
5
3
3
16
39
1

Total More Likely


Total Less Likely

5
21

5
24

3
22

2
16

7
19

Total more likely - Total less likely

-17

-20

-20

-15

-12

Total Yes Have Seen/Heard

69

69

73

68

65

Failure to Release Tax Returns Influence on Support for Trump...


Total Answering

(812)

(272)

(175)

(131)

(235)

Have not seen/heard


Yes - Much more likely
Yes - Somewhat more likely
Yes - Somewhat less likely
Yes - Much less likely
Yes - Made no difference
(Don't know)

15
5
3
4
21
52
1

16
4
4
5
24
47
0

11
4
1
4
22
56
1

17
3
1
6
17
54
1

14
6
3
3
20
53
1

Total More Likely


Total Less Likely

7
26

8
28

5
27

5
23

9
24

Total more likely - Total less likely

-19

-21

-22

-18

-15

Total Yes Have Seen/Heard

85

83

88

82

85

(812)

(272)

(175)

(131)

(235)

45
25
5
6
18
1

46
22
6
6
19
1

48
24
7
5
15
1

46
22
3
9
20
1

42
31
2
7
16
2

(812)

(272)

(175)

(131)

(235)

20
38
2
1
37
2

23
35
2
1
39
2

15
42
4
2
36
1

23
35
3
2
36
1

19
42
1
1
35
2

Reason Trump Has Not Released Tax Returns...


Total Answering
Will cause political problems
Routine IRS audit
(Both)
(Neither)
(Don't know/unsure)
(Prefer not to answer)

Clinton's Future Stance on TPP...


Total Answering
Will remain against TPP
Will change position
(Both)
(Neither)
(Don't know/unsure)
(Prefer not to answer)

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll

Ohio Statewide

TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score

Total

95+

90+

85+

80+

0 - 79.99

2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

-11

-5

-2

-1

-1

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-16

-8

-5

-3

-10

Party ID Difference...

Alicia Machado Influence on Support for Trump...


Total Answering

(812)

(388)

(500)

(566)

(608)

(204)

Have not seen/heard


Yes - Much more likely
Yes - Somewhat more likely
Yes - Somewhat less likely
Yes - Much less likely
Yes - Made no difference
(Don't know)

30
3
1
5
17
43
2

24
4
2
4
16
48
1

27
4
2
5
17
45
1

27
4
1
5
18
44
2

28
3
1
5
18
43
1

35
3
1
4
14
42
2

Total More Likely


Total Less Likely

5
21

6
21

5
22

5
23

5
22

5
17

Total more likely - Total less likely

-17

-14

-17

-18

-18

-13

Total Yes Have Seen/Heard

69

75

72

71

70

64

Failure to Release Tax Returns Influence on Support for Trump...


Total Answering

(812)

(388)

(500)

(566)

(608)

(204)

Have not seen/heard


Yes - Much more likely
Yes - Somewhat more likely
Yes - Somewhat less likely
Yes - Much less likely
Yes - Made no difference
(Don't know)

15
5
3
4
21
52
1

11
6
2
4
20
57
0

12
5
2
4
22
54
0

13
5
2
4
23
52
0

14
5
2
4
23
52
0

17
4
3
5
18
51
1

Total More Likely


Total Less Likely

7
26

8
24

6
27

7
27

7
27

7
23

Total more likely - Total less likely

-19

-16

-20

-20

-20

-15

Total Yes Have Seen/Heard

85

89

87

86

86

81

(812)

(388)

(500)

(566)

(608)

(204)

45
25
5
6
18
1

45
25
5
8
17
1

47
23
5
7
17
1

47
23
5
6
17
1

46
24
5
7
17
1

42
28
4
6
19
1

(812)

(388)

(500)

(566)

(608)

(204)

20
38
2
1
37
2

22
42
3
2
31
1

20
40
3
2
35
1

20
38
2
1
36
2

20
38
2
2
36
2

20
39
1
1
37
1

Reason Trump Has Not Released Tax Returns...


Total Answering
Will cause political problems
Routine IRS audit
(Both)
(Neither)
(Don't know/unsure)
(Prefer not to answer)

Clinton's Future Stance on TPP...


Total Answering
Will remain against TPP
Will change position
(Both)
(Neither)
(Don't know/unsure)
(Prefer not to answer)

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll


Party

Total

Dem

2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

Ohio Statewide
TargetSmart Partisanship Score

Ind

Rep

90+

70 - 89.99

30 - 69.99

10 - 29.99

0 - 9.99

100

-100

59

10

-15

-19

-62

100

-10

-100

71

10

-21

-34

-80

Party ID Difference...

Respondent age...
Total Answering

(812)

(254)

(293)

(262)

(252)

(110)

(165)

(82)

(204)

18 - 34
35 - 49
50 - 64
Over 64
(No answer)

25
24
27
23
1

23
20
30
25
2

29
29
24
18
0

23
21
28
28
0

20
21
31
25
3

38
25
17
20
1

33
26
26
16
-

33
20
28
19
-

15
25
29
30
0

18 - 49
50 and over

49
50

43
55

58
42

44
56

41
56

63
37

59
41

53
47

40
59

(812)

(254)

(293)

(262)

(252)

(110)

(165)

(82)

(204)

48
52

38
62

54
46

50
50

43
57

49
51

51
49

47
53

51
49

(812)

(254)

(293)

(262)

(252)

(110)

(165)

(82)

(204)

Strong Dem
Weak Dem
Ind-lean Dem
Ind
Ind-lean Rep
Weak Rep
Strong Rep
(DK/Ref)

24
8
11
10
15
11
21
0

76
24
-

30
29
41
-

36
64
-

53
11
16
9
4
3
2
0

20
11
17
13
17
11
11
1

13
7
14
11
21
12
22
0

14
7
6
12
22
14
25
-

2
2
2
9
20
20
46
-

2-3-2 Dem
Ind
Rep

31
36
32

100
-

100
-

100

65
29
6

31
46
22

20
46
34

21
40
39

4
30
66

Dem-Rep

-1

100

-100

59

10

-15

-19

-62

3-1-3 Dem
Ind
Rep

42
10
47

100
-

30
29
41

100

80
9
10

48
13
38

34
11
55

27
12
61

5
9
86

Dem-Rep

-5

100

-10

-100

71

10

-21

-34

-80

(812)

(254)

(293)

(262)

(252)

(110)

(165)

(82)

(204)

Very liberal
Somewhat liberal
Moderate
Somewhat conservative
Very conservative
(Prefer not to answer)

10
14
30
26
16
3

23
28
26
10
7
5

7
10
43
29
8
2

1
4
19
39
34
2

21
22
30
14
8
5

10
17
39
22
7
5

5
15
33
31
14
3

10
5
33
29
21
3

2
4
22
39
32
1

Total Liberal
Total Conservative

24
43

51
17

17
37

5
73

43
22

27
30

20
45

14
50

6
71

Respondent gender...
Total Answering
Male
Female

Party ID...
Total Answering

Ideology...
Total Answering

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll


Gender

Total

Men

Race

Women White

Black

Non White

Ohio Statewide

White/Gender

Marital Status

Gender/Marital

White White
Men Women

Marr
ied

Unmarr
ied

Marr
ied
Men

Marr Unmarr
Unmarr
ied
ied
ied Men Women Women

Party ID Difference...
2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

-9

-10

58

42

-17

-3

-11

14

-19

-2

18

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-16

-17

73

56

-28

-7

-16

13

-28

-4

19

Respondent age...
Total Answering

(812)

(387)

(424)

(671)

(110)

(137)

(320)

(351)

(506)

(294)

(254)

(130)

(252)

(163)

18 - 34
35 - 49
50 - 64
Over 64
(No answer)

25
24
27
23
1

21
29
27
22
1

28
19
28
24
1

24
25
27
24
0

27
16
32
22
3

31
18
28
19
3

19
31
26
23
1

28
19
28
25
-

21
28
30
21
0

33
16
23
27
1

15
32
27
26
0

33
21
27
15
3

26
24
33
16
1

32
12
19
36
-

18 - 49
50 and over

49
50

50
49

47
52

48
51

43
53

50
47

50
49

47
53

49
51

49
49

48
52

55
42

50
50

45
55

(812)

(387)

(424)

(671)

(110)

(137)

(320)

(351)

(506)

(294)

(254)

(130)

(252)

(163)

48
52

100
-

100

48
52

44
56

48
52

100
-

100

50
50

44
56

100
-

100
-

100

100

(812)

(387)

(424)

(671)

(110)

(137)

(320)

(351)

(506)

(294)

(254)

(130)

(252)

(163)

Strong Dem
Weak Dem
Ind-lean Dem
Ind
Ind-lean Rep
Weak Rep
Strong Rep
(DK/Ref)

24
8
11
10
15
11
21
0

18
7
11
13
18
13
21
-

29
8
11
8
12
10
21
1

19
7
10
10
17
13
23
0

55
9
18
10
2
1
5
-

45
9
18
11
4
3
9
-

14
7
9
12
20
15
23
-

25
7
10
8
14
11
24
0

19
9
10
9
15
12
26
0

31
6
13
12
14
11
13
-

13
8
10
12
19
14
26
-

26
6
12
16
16
12
11
-

25
10
10
7
12
10
26
0

35
6
14
9
12
10
14
-

2-3-2 Dem
Ind
Rep

31
36
32

25
41
34

37
31
31

27
37
37

64
30
6

54
34
12

21
42
38

32
32
35

27
35
38

37
39
23

20
40
40

32
45
23

34
29
36

41
35
24

Respondent gender...
Total Answering
Male
Female

Party ID...
Total Answering

Dem-Rep

-1

-9

-10

58

42

-17

-3

-11

14

-19

-2

18

3-1-3 Dem
Ind
Rep

42
10
47

35
13
52

49
8
43

36
10
53

82
10
8

72
11
16

30
12
58

42
8
49

37
9
53

50
12
37

30
12
58

44
16
39

44
7
48

55
9
36

Dem-Rep

-5

-16

-17

73

56

-28

-7

-16

13

-28

-4

19

(812)

(387)

(424)

(671)

(110)

(137)

(320)

(351)

(506)

(294)

(254)

(130)

(252)

(163)

Very liberal
Somewhat liberal
Moderate
Somewhat conservative
Very conservative
(Prefer not to answer)

10
14
30
26
16
3

7
12
31
31
16
3

13
16
29
22
16
4

9
14
30
28
17
2

19
14
29
15
15
9

16
13
31
18
15
7

7
10
30
34
16
3

10
18
30
23
17
2

9
13
30
29
18
2

13
16
30
23
13
5

7
10
30
34
17
2

9
15
33
26
14
3

11
16
30
23
19
2

16
17
28
21
12
6

Total Liberal
Total Conservative

24
43

19
48

29
38

23
45

32
30

29
33

18
50

28
40

22
47

29
36

17
52

24
40

26
42

33
33

Ideology...
Total Answering

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll


Age

Education
Total
Coll
Grad

Total
Non Coll

Ohio Statewide

Gender/Education
Men
Non Coll

Men
Coll

White/Education

Women
Non - Women
Coll
Coll

White
Non Coll

Evangelical

White
Coll

Total
Evange
lical

White
Evange
lical

Total

18 - 49

50 and
over

2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

-1

-2

-4

-3

-16

-10

-9

-22

-39

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-3

-8

-6

-4

-10

-23

10

-19

-15

-30

-50

Party ID Difference...

Respondent age...
Total Answering

(812)

(394)

(409)

(406)

(397)

(192)

(194)

(205)

(212)

(322)

(347)

(229)

(180)

18 - 34
35 - 49
50 - 64
Over 64
(No answer)

25
24
27
23
1

51
49
-

54
46
-

27
30
24
18
1

23
17
31
29
1

21
25
31
22
1

22
33
23
21
1

24
10
32
34
0

33
28
24
14
1

21
18
31
29
-

26
31
23
19
1

22
26
22
29
1

22
26
21
30
-

18 - 49
50 and over

49
50

100
-

100

58
41

40
60

46
53

55
44

34
66

61
39

39
61

57
43

48
51

49
51

(812)

(394)

(409)

(406)

(397)

(192)

(194)

(205)

(212)

(322)

(347)

(229)

(180)

48
52

49
51

46
54

48
52

48
52

100
-

100
-

100

100

49
51

47
53

41
59

42
58

(812)

(394)

(409)

(406)

(397)

(192)

(194)

(205)

(212)

(322)

(347)

(229)

(180)

Strong Dem
Weak Dem
Ind-lean Dem
Ind
Ind-lean Rep
Weak Rep
Strong Rep
(DK/Ref)

24
8
11
10
15
11
21
0

19
8
14
13
16
11
18
0

27
7
8
8
14
12
24
0

22
8
11
13
13
13
20
-

26
7
11
8
17
10
22
0

20
7
14
8
21
11
19
-

15
7
7
18
15
16
22
-

31
7
8
7
13
9
24
0

27
9
15
8
12
11
18
-

19
7
10
8
19
11
25
0

20
8
9
13
15
15
21
-

20
5
7
7
15
11
36
-

11
4
5
8
17
13
41
-

2-3-2 Dem
Ind
Rep

31
36
32

28
43
29

34
30
36

29
37
33

33
35
31

27
43
30

22
40
38

39
29
32

36
35
29

26
37
36

27
36
36

25
29
47

15
30
54

Respondent gender...
Total Answering
Male
Female

Party ID...
Total Answering

Dem-Rep

-1

-1

-2

-4

-3

-16

-10

-9

-22

-39

3-1-3 Dem
Ind
Rep

42
10
47

42
13
45

42
8
50

41
13
46

44
8
48

41
8
51

30
18
53

47
7
45

51
8
41

36
8
55

36
13
51

31
7
61

21
8
71

Dem-Rep

-5

-3

-8

-6

-4

-10

-23

10

-19

-15

-30

-50

(812)

(394)

(409)

(406)

(397)

(192)

(194)

(205)

(212)

(322)

(347)

(229)

(180)

Very liberal
Somewhat liberal
Moderate
Somewhat conservative
Very conservative
(Prefer not to answer)

10
14
30
26
16
3

14
13
32
23
16
3

7
15
28
30
17
4

13
15
34
24
13
1

8
13
27
29
19
5

6
11
29
30
20
4

8
12
33
33
12
2

9
15
25
28
18
5

17
18
34
16
14
1

6
14
25
32
19
4

12
14
34
24
14
1

5
6
22
32
32
4

2
5
21
33
37
2

Total Liberal
Total Conservative

24
43

26
39

22
46

28
37

21
48

17
50

21
45

24
46

35
30

19
52

26
38

10
64

7
70

Ideology...
Total Answering

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll

Ohio Statewide

Media Market

Total

Clevel and
- Akron Colu mbus Cincin nati
Canton OH
OH
OH

Other

Party ID Difference...
2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

11

-12

-7

-3

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-10

-10

-11

Respondent age...
Total Answering

(812)

(272)

(175)

(131)

(235)

18 - 34
35 - 49
50 - 64
Over 64
(No answer)

25
24
27
23
1

23
20
30
24
3

26
31
27
14
1

25
21
27
26
-

26
22
24
28
0

18 - 49
50 and over

49
50

44
54

58
42

46
54

48
51

(812)

(272)

(175)

(131)

(235)

48
52

50
50

44
56

53
47

44
56

(812)

(272)

(175)

(131)

(235)

Strong Dem
Weak Dem
Ind-lean Dem
Ind
Ind-lean Rep
Weak Rep
Strong Rep
(DK/Ref)

24
8
11
10
15
11
21
0

26
10
12
9
16
11
15
0

17
7
15
12
13
14
22
1

21
7
11
11
15
12
23
0

27
5
7
10
14
10
26
-

2-3-2 Dem
Ind
Rep

31
36
32

36
38
26

24
40
36

28
37
35

33
31
36

Dem-Rep

-1

11

-12

-7

-3

3-1-3 Dem
Ind
Rep

42
10
47

48
9
42

39
12
49

39
11
49

40
10
50

Dem-Rep

-5

-10

-10

-11

(812)

(272)

(175)

(131)

(235)

Very liberal
Somewhat liberal
Moderate
Somewhat conservative
Very conservative
(Prefer not to answer)

10
14
30
26
16
3

11
13
32
27
13
5

11
15
28
29
15
2

8
14
35
23
17
3

9
15
26
26
21
3

Total Liberal
Total Conservative

24
43

24
39

26
44

23
40

23
47

Respondent gender...
Total Answering
Male
Female

Party ID...
Total Answering

Ideology...
Total Answering

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll

Ohio Statewide

TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score

Total

95+

90+

85+

80+

0 - 79.99

2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

-11

-5

-2

-1

-1

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-16

-8

-5

-3

-10

Party ID Difference...

Respondent age...
Total Answering

(812)

(388)

(500)

(566)

(608)

(204)

18 - 34
35 - 49
50 - 64
Over 64
(No answer)

25
24
27
23
1

15
26
27
30
1

20
26
25
27
1

21
25
27
26
1

22
25
27
26
1

35
21
27
16
1

18 - 49
50 and over

49
50

41
58

46
52

46
53

46
53

55
43

(812)

(388)

(500)

(566)

(608)

(204)

48
52

52
48

50
50

48
52

48
52

48
52

(812)

(388)

(500)

(566)

(608)

(204)

Strong Dem
Weak Dem
Ind-lean Dem
Ind
Ind-lean Rep
Weak Rep
Strong Rep
(DK/Ref)

24
8
11
10
15
11
21
0

23
5
10
7
15
13
26
0

25
6
11
8
14
12
24
0

25
6
11
9
14
11
23
0

25
7
12
10
14
11
22
0

19
11
9
13
18
14
17
0

2-3-2 Dem
Ind
Rep

31
36
32

28
33
39

30
34
35

31
35
34

32
35
33

30
40
30

Dem-Rep

-1

-11

-5

-2

-1

-1

3-1-3 Dem
Ind
Rep

42
10
47

38
7
54

42
8
50

43
9
48

44
10
47

38
13
48

Dem-Rep

-5

-16

-8

-5

-3

-10

(812)

(388)

(500)

(566)

(608)

(204)

Very liberal
Somewhat liberal
Moderate
Somewhat conservative
Very conservative
(Prefer not to answer)

10
14
30
26
16
3

11
15
26
28
19
2

11
14
29
26
17
3

12
13
29
26
17
3

12
14
29
25
17
3

4
14
32
30
16
4

Total Liberal
Total Conservative

24
43

25
47

25
43

25
43

26
42

19
46

Respondent gender...
Total Answering
Male
Female

Party ID...
Total Answering

Ideology...
Total Answering

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll


Party

Total

Dem

2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

Ohio Statewide
TargetSmart Partisanship Score

Ind

Rep

90+

70 - 89.99

30 - 69.99

10 - 29.99

0 - 9.99

100

-100

59

10

-15

-19

-62

100

-10

-100

71

10

-21

-34

-80

Party ID Difference...

Education...
Total Answering

(812)

(254)

(293)

(262)

(252)

(110)

(165)

(82)

(204)

1 - 11th grade
High school graduate
Trade/technical/vocational school
Some college/associates degree
4-year college/bachelor's degree
Post-graduate school/masters/PhD
(Prefer not to answer)

2
22
3
22
30
20
1

2
27
3
20
25
22
1

2
19
2
25
33
18
0

2
20
3
22
31
20
1

3
23
4
23
27
18
1

3
18
2
21
25
30
2

2
20
1
29
28
21
0

2
27
3
19
31
15
3

1
21
3
18
37
19
1

H.S. or less
Post H.S.
College Graduate

24
25
50

29
23
47

21
27
52

22
25
52

26
27
46

21
23
54

22
29
49

29
22
46

22
21
56

Not College

49

52

48

47

53

44

51

51

44

Religion...
Total Answering

(812)

(254)

(293)

(262)

(252)

(110)

(165)

(82)

(204)

Protestant
Roman Catholic
Mormon
Jewish
Muslim
Atheist
Agnostic
Something else
Nothing in particular
(Prefer not to answer)

49
24
0
1
1
3
3
2
13
3

46
20
4
1
6
3
1
16
3

39
27
0
0
2
4
4
2
17
4

62
26
1
0
0
1
2
5
2

45
19
4
2
6
2
2
17
3

38
24
1
1
2
7
1
21
5

49
26
1
1
2
3
3
1
10
4

47
27
2
3
4
15
2

60
28
2
1
2
1
4
3

Evangelical

28

22

22

41

22

21

29

25

39

Marital Status...
Total Answering

(812)

(254)

(293)

(262)

(252)

(110)

(165)

(82)

(204)

Married
Single
Separated/divorced
Widowed
(Don't know/prefer not to answer)

62
20
9
7
1

54
24
8
11
2

60
25
10
4
1

73
10
10
6
0

51
27
9
10
3

52
29
12
6
1

66
19
10
5
0

67
16
7
5
4

78
8
8
6
-

Total Non-Married

36

43

39

26

47

47

34

28

22

(812)

(254)

(293)

(262)

(252)

(110)

(165)

(82)

(204)

83
14
2
0
1
0

70
28
1
0
0
0

84
11
2
1
2
0

94
3
3
0
1
0

65
32
1
1
1
1

84
11
2
0
2
1

87
6
5
1
0
0

95
3
0
2
0

96
2
1
1
0

Race...
Total Answering
White
Black
Hispanic
Asian/Pacific Islander
Other
(Prefer not to answer)

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll


Gender

Total

Men

Race

Women White

Black

Non White

Ohio Statewide

White/Gender

Marital Status

Gender/Marital

White White
Men Women

Marr
ied

Unmarr
ied

Marr
ied
Men

Marr Unmarr
Unmarr
ied
ied
ied Men Women Women

Party ID Difference...
2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

-9

-10

58

42

-17

-3

-11

14

-19

-2

18

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-16

-17

73

56

-28

-7

-16

13

-28

-4

19

Education...
Total Answering

(812)

(387)

(424)

(671)

(110)

(137)

(320)

(351)

(506)

(294)

(254)

(130)

(252)

(163)

1 - 11th grade
High school graduate
Trade/technical/vocational school
Some college/associates degree
4-year college/bachelor's degree
Post-graduate school/masters/
PhD
(Prefer not to answer)

2
22
3
22
30

2
22
3
22
31

2
21
3
23
29

2
23
3
21
30

4
19
3
29
26

4
19
2
29
28

1
24
3
22
31

2
22
3
20
30

1
20
3
19
33

4
26
3
28
25

1
21
4
21
32

5
25
1
25
29

1
19
2
17
34

2
26
4
30
22

20

19

21

21

17

15

21

22

24

14

22

14

26

15

H.S. or less
Post H.S.

24
25

25
25

23
25

24
24

24
32

24
31

25
24

24
23

21
22

29
31

22
24

31
26

20
19

28
34

College Graduate

50

50

50

52

43

43

51

52

57

39

54

43

60

36

Not College

49

49

48

48

55

55

49

47

43

60

46

57

39

63

Religion...
Total Answering

(812)

(387)

(424)

(671)

(110)

(137)

(320)

(351)

(506)

(294)

(254)

(130)

(252)

(163)

Protestant
Roman Catholic
Mormon
Jewish
Muslim
Atheist
Agnostic
Something else
Nothing in particular
(Prefer not to answer)

49
24
0
1
1
3
3
2
13
3

45
28
1
1
1
4
3
1
14
2

52
21
0
2
1
2
3
2
11
4

47
27
1
2
1
3
3
1
12
3

63
8
2
5
2
19
1

61
11
4
4
0
3
17
1

44
30
1
1
0
5
3
1
13
2

49
25
1
3
1
2
3
2
11
4

52
26
1
1
2
3
2
2
9
3

43
22
0
3
0
4
4
1
20
3

51
30
0
0
1
4
1
1
9
2

34
23
1
1
1
6
6
1
25
3

54
22
1
1
2
2
3
2
9
4

50
22
4
2
3
1
15
3

Evangelical

28

24

32

27

36

35

24

30

29

27

28

16

30

36

(812)

(387)

(424)

(671)

(110)

(137)

(320)

(351)

(506)

(294)

(254)

(130)

(252)

(163)

Married
Single
Separated/divorced
Widowed
(Don't know/prefer not to
answer)

62
20
9
7

66
22
8
4

59
18
11
10

67
18
9
6

37
34
14
11

41
32
12
10

71
19
7
3

63
17
11
9

100
-

55
26
19

100
-

65
24
11

100
-

47
28
25

Total Non-Married

36

34

38

33

59

54

29

36

100

100

100

(812)

(387)

(424)

(671)

(110)

(137)

(320)

(351)

(506)

(294)

(254)

(130)

(252)

(163)

83
14
2
0
1
0

83
13
2
1
2
0

83
15
2
0
0
1

100
-

100
-

80
12
3
5
-

100
-

100
-

89
8
2
1
0
0

75
22
2
0
1
0

90
6
2
1
1
0

70
24
3
1
3
0

88
10
2
0
-

78
21
1
0
0
-

Marital Status...
Total Answering

Race...
Total Answering
White
Black
Hispanic
Asian/Pacific Islander
Other
(Prefer not to answer)

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll


Age

Education
Total
Coll
Grad

Total
Non Coll

Ohio Statewide

Gender/Education
Men
Non Coll

Men
Coll

White/Education

Women
Non - Women
Coll
Coll

White
Non Coll

Evangelical

White
Coll

Total
Evange
lical

White
Evange
lical

Total

18 - 49

50 and
over

2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

-1

-2

-4

-3

-16

-10

-9

-22

-39

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-3

-8

-6

-4

-10

-23

10

-19

-15

-30

-50

Party ID Difference...

Education...
Total Answering

(812)

(394)

(409)

(406)

(397)

(192)

(194)

(205)

(212)

(322)

(347)

(229)

(180)

1 - 11th grade
High school graduate
Trade/technical/vocational school
Some college/associates degree
4-year college/bachelor's degree
Post-graduate school/masters/PhD
(Prefer not to answer)

2
22
3
22
30
20
1

2
19
1
18
37
23
1

3
24
4
27
24
17
1

60
40
-

4
45
5
46
-

5
45
6
44
-

62
38
-

4
44
5
47
-

58
42
-

3
47
6
44
-

59
41
-

4
25
2
24
28
15
1

3
28
2
21
30
16
1

H.S. or less
Post H.S.
College Graduate

24
25
50

21
19
60

27
31
41

100

49
51
-

50
50
-

100

48
52
-

100

50
50
-

100

29
26
43

30
23
45

Not College

49

40

58

100

100

100

100

55

54

Religion...
Total Answering

(812)

(394)

(409)

(406)

(397)

(192)

(194)

(205)

(212)

(322)

(347)

(229)

(180)

Protestant
Roman Catholic
Mormon
Jewish
Muslim
Atheist
Agnostic
Something else
Nothing in particular
(Prefer not to answer)

49
24
0
1
1
3
3
2
13
3

43
25
1
1
1
5
4
2
17
2

54
25
0
2
1
2
2
1
9
4

48
24
1
2
1
4
4
2
12
3

50
25
0
1
1
2
2
1
13
3

46
28
0
0
2
3
2
0
17
1

45
27
1
1
6
4
2
12
3

54
22
0
1
1
2
2
2
10
5

50
21
1
3
2
3
3
2
12
3

47
28
0
1
0
2
2
1
13
4

46
26
1
2
1
4
4
1
11
3

100
-

100
-

Evangelical

28

28

29

24

32

27

22

37

27

30

24

100

100

Marital Status...
Total Answering

(812)

(394)

(409)

(406)

(397)

(192)

(194)

(205)

(212)

(322)

(347)

(229)

(180)

Married
Single
Separated/divorced
Widowed
(Don't know/prefer not to answer)

62
20
9
7
1

63
28
7
2
1

63
12
12
12
2

71
21
6
2
1

54
20
13
12
1

61
22
11
6
-

70
21
6
2
1

48
17
15
18
2

71
20
7
2
1

61
16
13
11
0

73
20
6
2
0

64
14
14
7
2

72
9
14
5
-

Total Non-Married

36

37

35

28

45

39

29

50

28

39

27

35

28

(812)

(394)

(409)

(406)

(397)

(192)

(194)

(205)

(212)

(322)

(347)

(229)

(180)

83
14
2
0
1
0

83
12
4
1
1
0

84
14
1
0
1
0

85
12
2
1
0
0

81
15
2
0
1
0

82
14
2
2
0

84
11
3
1
1
0

80
16
3
0
0

87
12
1
0
0
-

100
-

100
-

79
18
2
0
2
0

100
-

Race...
Total Answering
White
Black
Hispanic
Asian/Pacific Islander
Other
(Prefer not to answer)

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll

Ohio Statewide

Media Market

Total

Clevel and
- Akron Colu mbus Cincin nati
Canton OH
OH
OH

Other

Party ID Difference...
2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

11

-12

-7

-3

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-10

-10

-11

Education...
Total Answering

(812)

(272)

(175)

(131)

(235)

1 - 11th grade
High school graduate
Trade/technical/vocational school
Some college/associates degree
4-year college/bachelor's degree
Post-graduate school/masters/PhD
(Prefer not to answer)

2
22
3
22
30
20
1

1
20
3
26
27
22
1

1
21
3
20
33
21
1

3
21
2
19
35
19
2

4
26
2
22
28
18
1

H.S. or less
Post H.S.
College Graduate

24
25
50

20
29
49

22
23
55

24
20
54

29
24
46

Not College

49

50

44

44

54

Religion...
Total Answering

(812)

(272)

(175)

(131)

(235)

Protestant
Roman Catholic
Mormon
Jewish
Muslim
Atheist
Agnostic
Something else
Nothing in particular
(Prefer not to answer)

49
24
0
1
1
3
3
2
13
3

45
29
2
1
4
3
1
11
3

58
13
2
1
6
1
2
14
3

45
30
2
1
3
1
14
4

48
24
1
2
1
2
3
2
13
4

Evangelical

28

23

32

25

32

Marital Status...
Total Answering

(812)

(272)

(175)

(131)

(235)

Married
Single
Separated/divorced
Widowed
(Don't know/prefer not to answer)

62
20
9
7
1

58
24
9
8
1

68
15
10
5
2

65
18
7
8
2

62
20
11
7
1

Total Non-Married

36

41

30

33

37

(812)

(272)

(175)

(131)

(235)

83
14
2
0
1
0

80
16
2
0
1
1

82
14
2
1
1
0

80
16
2
1
1
0

87
10
2
0
0
0

Race...
Total Answering
White
Black
Hispanic
Asian/Pacific Islander
Other
(Prefer not to answer)

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll

Ohio Statewide

TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score

Total

95+

90+

85+

80+

0 - 79.99

2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

-11

-5

-2

-1

-1

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-16

-8

-5

-3

-10

Party ID Difference...

Education...
Total Answering

(812)

(388)

(500)

(566)

(608)

(204)

1 - 11th grade
High school graduate
Trade/technical/vocational school
Some college/associates degree
4-year college/bachelor's degree
Post-graduate school/masters/PhD
(Prefer not to answer)

2
22
3
22
30
20
1

1
18
2
23
33
22
1

1
21
2
22
31
21
1

1
21
2
22
32
21
1

2
21
3
22
31
21
1

3
24
3
24
27
19
0

H.S. or less
Post H.S.
College Graduate

24
25
50

19
25
54

22
24
53

22
24
52

23
24
51

27
27
46

Not College

49

45

46

46

47

54

Religion...
Total Answering

(812)

(388)

(500)

(566)

(608)

(204)

Protestant
Roman Catholic
Mormon
Jewish
Muslim
Atheist
Agnostic
Something else
Nothing in particular
(Prefer not to answer)

49
24
0
1
1
3
3
2
13
3

50
26
0
2
0
4
2
1
11
2

48
25
0
2
1
5
3
1
12
3

48
25
0
2
1
4
3
1
13
4

47
25
0
2
1
4
3
2
13
4

54
22
1
1
2
1
2
2
13
3

Evangelical

28

28

28

28

27

30

Marital Status...
Total Answering

(812)

(388)

(500)

(566)

(608)

(204)

Married
Single
Separated/divorced
Widowed
(Don't know/prefer not to answer)

62
20
9
7
1

70
17
6
5
2

66
19
6
6
2

65
20
7
6
2

65
19
8
7
2

55
22
15
8
1

Total Non-Married

36

29

32

34

33

44

(812)

(388)

(500)

(566)

(608)

(204)

83
14
2
0
1
0

88
10
1
0
0

85
12
2
0
0
0

84
13
2
0
1
0

84
13
2
0
1
0

79
16
1
1
1
1

Race...
Total Answering
White
Black
Hispanic
Asian/Pacific Islander
Other
(Prefer not to answer)

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll


Party

Total

Dem

2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

Ohio Statewide
TargetSmart Partisanship Score

Ind

Rep

90+

70 - 89.99

30 - 69.99

10 - 29.99

0 - 9.99

100

-100

59

10

-15

-19

-62

100

-10

-100

71

10

-21

-34

-80

(812)

(254)

(293)

(262)

(252)

(110)

(165)

(82)

(204)

33
22
16
11
8
5
6

39
16
15
9
9
7
6

35
24
16
12
5
3
5

27
24
17
12
10
5
6

43
20
14
9
4
5
4

41
22
12
9
6
6
5

29
21
16
10
13
4
7

22
25
16
14
9
3
10

25
23
21
13
8
5
5

(812)

(254)

(293)

(262)

(252)

(110)

(165)

(82)

(204)

25
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
8
31

3
2
5
3
2
3
4
4
10
64

21
6
5
8
6
5
6
8
10
25

51
7
5
5
5
6
6
5
4
6

100

43
57
-

27
23
24
27
-

51
49
-

100
-

(812)

(254)

(293)

(262)

(252)

(110)

(165)

(82)

(204)

0
0
1
2
3
5
6
8
13
62

1
0
1
3
6
3
10
16
60

0
0
1
2
4
6
8
6
14
58

0
1
2
2
3
6
9
9
68

0
0
1
1
4
4
3
6
13
68

1
2
4
3
12
8
11
18
42

2
3
4
6
11
14
18
42

1
0
2
1
6
9
11
14
56

0
0
1
2
1
3
4
7
83

Party ID Difference...

Media Market...
Total Answering
Cleveland-Akron Canton OH
Columbus OH
Cincinnati OH
Dayton OH
Toledo OH
Youngstown OH
Other

TargetSmart Partisanship Score...


Total Answering
0 - 9.9
10 - 19.9
20 - 29.9
30 - 39.9
40 - 49.9
50 - 59.9
60 - 69.9
70 - 79.9
80 - 89.9
90 - 100

TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score...


Total Answering
0 - 9.9
10 - 19.9
20 - 29.9
30 - 39.9
40 - 49.9
50 - 59.9
60 - 69.9
70 - 79.9
80 - 89.9
90 - 100

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll


Gender

Total

Men

Race

Women White

Black

Non White

Ohio Statewide

White/Gender

Marital Status

Gender/Marital

White White
Men Women

Marr
ied

Unmarr
ied

Marr
ied
Men

Marr Unmarr
Unmarr
ied
ied
ied Men Women Women

Party ID Difference...
2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

-9

-10

58

42

-17

-3

-11

14

-19

-2

18

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-16

-17

73

56

-28

-7

-16

13

-28

-4

19

(812)

(387)

(424)

(671)

(110)

(137)

(320)

(351)

(506)

(294)

(254)

(130)

(252)

(163)

33
22
16
11
8
5
6

35
20
18
11
5
5
5

32
23
14
10
10
5
6

32
21
15
11
9
5
6

38
21
19
12
1
4
4

38
22
19
11
2
3
5

34
21
17
11
6
5
5

31
22
14
11
12
5
6

31
24
17
11
7
5
6

38
18
15
11
8
5
6

33
22
19
10
4
6
6

39
16
16
15
8
3
4

29
25
15
11
11
4
6

37
19
13
8
9
6
7

(812)

(387)

(424)

(671)

(110)

(137)

(320)

(351)

(506)

(294)

(254)

(130)

(252)

(163)

25
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
8
31

27
5
4
8
4
5
4
7
7
28

24
5
5
3
5
4
6
5
8
34

29
6
5
6
5
5
5
6
7
24

4
1
1
3
1
2
4
3
7
74

6
1
2
4
1
4
6
4
8
63

31
7
5
7
5
5
4
7
7
22

27
6
6
4
5
5
7
6
8
26

31
5
5
6
4
5
6
5
6
25

16
5
3
4
5
5
4
7
11
40

34
5
6
7
5
4
4
7
6
21

14
7
2
8
4
7
5
5
9
39

29
6
5
5
4
5
8
3
6
29

17
3
4
1
6
4
4
8
12
41

Media Market...
Total Answering
Cleveland-Akron Canton OH
Columbus OH
Cincinnati OH
Dayton OH
Toledo OH
Youngstown OH
Other

TargetSmart Partisanship Score...


Total Answering
0 - 9.9
10 - 19.9
20 - 29.9
30 - 39.9
40 - 49.9
50 - 59.9
60 - 69.9
70 - 79.9
80 - 89.9
90 - 100

TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score...


Total Answering

(812)

(387)

(424)

(671)

(110)

(137)

(320)

(351)

(506)

(294)

(254)

(130)

(252)

(163)

0
0
1
2
3
5
6
8
13
62

0
1
2
3
5
6
8
11
64

0
0
1
1
3
5
5
9
16
60

0
0
1
2
3
4
6
8
12
64

1
1
1
3
11
4
8
17
53

1
1
1
4
10
5
8
19
51

0
1
2
4
3
6
8
9
66

0
0
1
1
2
4
6
9
15
61

0
0
1
1
3
4
5
8
12
66

1
1
2
4
7
7
9
15
54

0
1
2
3
3
5
8
11
67

1
1
3
4
7
8
8
10
58

0
1
1
2
4
5
8
14
65

1
1
2
3
8
6
10
19
51

0 - 9.9
10 - 19.9
20 - 29.9
30 - 39.9
40 - 49.9
50 - 59.9
60 - 69.9
70 - 79.9
80 - 89.9
90 - 100

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll


Age

Education
Total
Coll
Grad

Total
Non Coll

Ohio Statewide

Gender/Education
Men
Non Coll

Men
Coll

White/Education

Women
Non - Women
Coll
Coll

White
Non Coll

Evangelical

White
Coll

Total
Evange
lical

White
Evange
lical

Total

18 - 49

50 and
over

2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

-1

-2

-4

-3

-16

-10

-9

-22

-39

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-3

-8

-6

-4

-10

-23

10

-19

-15

-30

-50

(812)

(394)

(409)

(406)

(397)

(192)

(194)

(205)

(212)

(322)

(347)

(229)

(180)

33
22
16
11
8
5
6

30
26
15
12
7
4
6

36
18
17
10
9
6
5

33
24
17
11
8
3
5

34
19
15
11
8
6
7

37
19
13
11
5
7
7

33
20
23
11
6
3
4

31
19
16
11
10
6
7

33
27
12
10
10
3
5

32
19
15
10
9
7
7

33
24
16
11
9
3
5

28
24
15
13
8
4
8

26
27
13
12
9
4
8

(812)

(394)

(409)

(406)

(397)

(192)

(194)

(205)

(212)

(322)

(347)

(229)

(180)

25
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
8
31

21
5
5
6
5
6
7
8
10
26

30
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
6
35

28
5
4
4
4
6
5
7
8
28

22
5
5
7
5
3
6
5
7
34

22
6
5
10
4
5
5
6
7
30

32
5
4
5
5
6
4
7
7
25

23
4
6
5
6
2
6
5
7
37

24
5
5
2
4
7
7
6
9
31

27
6
6
9
6
3
5
6
6
26

31
6
5
3
5
7
5
7
9
23

35
5
4
6
4
7
5
4
6
25

40
5
4
7
5
7
6
4
7
15

Party ID Difference...

Media Market...
Total Answering
Cleveland-Akron Canton OH
Columbus OH
Cincinnati OH
Dayton OH
Toledo OH
Youngstown OH
Other

TargetSmart Partisanship Score...


Total Answering
0 - 9.9
10 - 19.9
20 - 29.9
30 - 39.9
40 - 49.9
50 - 59.9
60 - 69.9
70 - 79.9
80 - 89.9
90 - 100

TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score...


Total Answering
0 - 9.9
10 - 19.9
20 - 29.9
30 - 39.9
40 - 49.9
50 - 59.9
60 - 69.9
70 - 79.9
80 - 89.9
90 - 100

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

(812)

(394)

(409)

(406)

(397)

(192)

(194)

(205)

(212)

(322)

(347)

(229)

(180)

0
0
1
2
3
5
6
8
13
62

0
1
2
4
5
7
9
12
59

0
0
1
1
3
5
5
7
14
64

0
0
1
1
3
4
7
7
12
65

0
1
2
4
6
5
10
14
58

0
1
3
3
4
5
8
11
64

0
1
2
4
5
7
7
10
64

1
1
2
4
8
5
11
17
53

0
1
1
2
3
6
7
14
66

0
1
2
3
5
5
10
13
61

0
0
1
1
3
3
7
7
12
66

1
1
2
3
5
4
12
12
61

0
1
2
4
3
4
12
9
66

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll

Ohio Statewide

Media Market

Total

Clevel and
- Akron Colu mbus Cincin nati
Canton OH
OH
OH

Other

Party ID Difference...
2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

11

-12

-7

-3

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-10

-10

-11

(812)

(272)

(175)

(131)

(235)

33
22
16
11
8
5
6

100
-

100
-

100
-

37
26
17
19

(812)

(272)

(175)

(131)

(235)

25
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
8
31

19
3
3
6
4
2
5
7
10
40

27
7
4
5
4
6
5
5
9
28

32
4
6
4
4
5
6
4
6
27

27
6
7
5
6
6
6
7
5
24

(812)

(272)

(175)

(131)

(235)

0
0
1
2
3
5
6
8
13
62

0
1
1
3
5
5
8
15
62

0
1
2
2
5
2
9
12
68

1
2
4
4
8
4
12
65

0
0
1
2
4
5
8
11
13
55

Media Market...
Total Answering
Cleveland-Akron Canton OH
Columbus OH
Cincinnati OH
Dayton OH
Toledo OH
Youngstown OH
Other

TargetSmart Partisanship Score...


Total Answering
0 - 9.9
10 - 19.9
20 - 29.9
30 - 39.9
40 - 49.9
50 - 59.9
60 - 69.9
70 - 79.9
80 - 89.9
90 - 100

TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score...


Total Answering
0 - 9.9
10 - 19.9
20 - 29.9
30 - 39.9
40 - 49.9
50 - 59.9
60 - 69.9
70 - 79.9
80 - 89.9
90 - 100

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com

October 3-6, 2016

TargetSmart | William & Mary Poll

Ohio Statewide

TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score

Total

95+

90+

85+

80+

0 - 79.99

2-3-2 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-1

-11

-5

-2

-1

-1

3-1-3 PARTY ID Dem-Rep

-5

-16

-8

-5

-3

-10

(812)

(388)

(500)

(566)

(608)

(204)

33
22
16
11
8
5
6

36
22
17
10
7
5
4

34
24
17
10
7
5
4

34
23
16
10
7
5
5

34
23
17
10
7
5
5

31
18
15
14
10
5
7

(812)

(388)

(500)

(566)

(608)

(204)

25
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
8
31

37
5
4
3
3
2
3
4
3
34

34
5
4
4
3
3
4
4
5
34

31
5
4
4
3
4
4
5
5
33

30
5
5
4
3
4
5
5
6
34

11
6
6
8
9
7
8
8
14
23

(812)

(388)

(500)

(566)

(608)

(204)

0
0
1
2
3
5
6
8
13
62

100

100

12
88

18
82

0
1
4
7
12
20
23
33
-

Party ID Difference...

Media Market...
Total Answering
Cleveland-Akron Canton OH
Columbus OH
Cincinnati OH
Dayton OH
Toledo OH
Youngstown OH
Other

TargetSmart Partisanship Score...


Total Answering
0 - 9.9
10 - 19.9
20 - 29.9
30 - 39.9
40 - 49.9
50 - 59.9
60 - 69.9
70 - 79.9
80 - 89.9
90 - 100

TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score...


Total Answering
0 - 9.9
10 - 19.9
20 - 29.9
30 - 39.9
40 - 49.9
50 - 59.9
60 - 69.9
70 - 79.9
80 - 89.9
90 - 100

TargetSmart Communications, LLC

1155 15th St, NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005

targetsmart.com