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The Prediction Wall

Next-Generation Prediction Markets
A Rigorous ToolResearch
to Find AttendeeReport
Consensus at
Predictive
Company Events & Industry Conferences

respondents collaborate and communicate with each other in real-time. producing predictions much closer to reality. where a diverse crowd expresses true beliefs by investing. Unlike traditional surveys. The exchange mechanism aggregate these opinions into a single consensus forecast. but claimed behaviour is highly unreliable. 2 . Group decisions outperform individual ones. It is not groupthink.What are Prediction Markets? Tap into the full brain capacity of respondents Utilize the entire group’s problem solving ability Translate beliefs and information into outcomes Traditionally we asks respondents directly what they will do. This switches their brain into thinking that they are in their situation. Predictive markets asks respondents to predict what others will do. Predictive markets harnesses collective intelligence to predict the future. achieving a more realistic prediction. Rather it operates in the same way as the stock exchange.

2009) ESOMAR: Advert & concept tests (Hofkirchner.Two Decades of Validations Vernon Smith. 2014) Philip Tetlock. 2007) ESOMAR: Marketing tests (Kearon. 2008) Wharton: Innovation forecasting (Cowgill. Nobel Prize 2002 • • The Big Question: “How and why could prices on any market converge to nearly perfect predictions?” Manifold testing scenarios using monetary incentives Emerging Gold Standard • • • • • Iowa: Political election predictions (Berg. expert teams by 20% James Surowiecki. 2015 “Superforecasting” • Four years of 2.800 prediction contests outperforming intelligence community • Prediction markets beat traditional MR methods by 30%. 2001) Oxford/Cambridge: Small groups (Christiansen. 2004 “The Wisdom of the Crowds” • Collective intelligence by using information aggregation in groups • Numerous case studies & anecdotes • Markets the most reliable alternative 3 .

Live Consensus for a Market Research Conference A Practical Example .

Yes=Buy. No=Sell Live Dashboard: Consensus over time 4.Four Tasks for Congress Attendees 1. Write reasons . Confirm rules 3. Read wiki (stimulus) 2.

Sample Monitor Output Screen #1 Prediki calculates the median as the consensus forecast.9% growth. Here it is a +1. . Consensus formation during the event’s duration.

Like the numeric forecast it expresses “growth”. .Sample Monitor Output Screen #2 Prediki classifies each post by its primary sentiment regarding the question.

.Sample Monitor Output Screen #3 The more “Agree”s to a statement. the more likely it is shown on the monitors.

Sample Monitor Output Screen #4 Text analysis classifies key arguments. . and weights them with “Agree/Disagree”.

.Sample Monitor Output Screen #5 A useful summary of verbal reasons for reporters & presenters.

.Sample Monitor Output Screen #6 Inspire take-aways and immediate actions.

com .com gf@prediki.Consumer & Business Elections & Politics Predictive Research Report Hubertus J. Hofkirchner Günther Fädler hjh@prediki.