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NAVAL POSTGRADUA'TIE •UHOOL
Monterey, California

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SDTIC

THESIS
Analysis of Simulated Drift Patterns of
a High Altitude Balloon Surveillance
System

by
Kurt Charles Reitinger

uj1

June 1993

Principal Advisor:

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of Simuate

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Dift Patterns of

93-27982
•THESIS

EA.

Michael Melich

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ANALYSIS OF SIMULATED DRIFT PATTERNS OF A HIGH ALTITUDE BALLOON

SURVEILLANCE SYSTEM
12 Personal Author(s)

Reitinger, Kurt C.

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Master's Thesis

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June 1993

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16 Supplementary Notation The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position

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18 Subject Terms (continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number)
Field
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missile defense, theater missile defense, Scud, surveillance, balloon, high-altitude halloon. uper
pressre balloon, atmosphere, stratosphere, atmospheric circulation, command and ,ontrol

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Groubrup

19 Abstract (continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number)
This study evaluates the potential of high altitude balloons as surveillance platforms. It begins with the mobile Theater Ballistic
Missile (TBM) detection problem encountered during the Persian Gulf War of 1990-1991 and it describes a possible scenario using
high altitude balloon surveillance systems to locate TBM's accurately enough for effective engagement by strike assets. It presents
the history and military use of balloons, and it describes the current state of technology of differing balloon types. Atmospherii
circulation impacting balloon drift is presented along with a description of available atmospheric models. Trajectory prediction
programs are reviewed and a revised program is used to conduct a simulation of balloon trajectories. Balloon locations at fixed
times are analyzed for variability. The study concludes that high altitude balloons have some potential for use as surveillance
platforms for limited periods of time.

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Michael Melich

(408)_-656-2772

DD FORM 1473,84 MAR

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U,

Analysis of Simulated Drift Patterns of a High Altitude
Balloon Surveillance System

0
4

by
Kurt C. Reitinger
Major, United States Army
B.S., United States Military Academy

0

Submitted in partial fulfillment
of the requirements for the degree of

0

MASTER OF SCIENCE IN SYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY
from the

0

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL
June 1993

Author:
Kurt C. -eitinger

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Approved by:

/

I
Michael Melich,

Principal Advisor

Wi11'. ajs

ate Advisor
0

Command,

Paul H. Moose, Chairman
Control and Communications Academic Group
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Balloon locations at fixed times are analyzed for variability... . . Trajectory * prediction programs are reviewed and a revised program is used to conduct a simulation of balloon trajectories. • .... .. D'T.:. By Dil iii 0 4P~ • 0. S n 5. •. military use of balloons. • . Theater Ballistic Missile (TBM) It of high systems scenario to detection problem encountered TBM's accurately by strike assets. 0 ABSTRACT This study evaluates the potential balloons as surveillance platforms. .. .S.LITY INSPECTED 5 NTIS CRA&I DU1C TAJ 0 J. . of technology of It and it differing enough presents of describes a available for effective 0 the history and describes the current state balloon types. i • •• .1.. circulation impacting balloon drift is description 0 using high altitude balloon surveillance locate engagement 4 begins with the mobile during the Persian Gulf War of 1990-1991 and it possible altitude Atmospheric 0 presented along with a atmospheric models.. study concludes potential for that use as high altitude surveillance balloons platforms 0 have for The some limited Accesion For periods of time.. .n 0 . . . • .

... ...... SUMMARY OF BALLOON USE AND HISTORY 0 7 7 . BALLOON USE AND TECHNOLOGY . ....... .. 0 3 ....... 20 .. 1...... * 9 Zero Pressure Balloons ........ A...... ATMOSPHERE STRUCTURE ........... 0 7 1. B.. ... .. Balloon Invention and Development 3..... II. .... CURRENT BALLOON TECHNOLOGY .... B. ..........0 TABLE OF CONTENTB I....... ..... ... ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION AND MODELING .. PERSIAN GULF SCUD CAMPAIGN DIFFICULTIES C... C............ . BALLOON HISTORY .. A.......... 0 1 .... ....... .... Military Balloon Use ................. INTRODUCTION PURPOSE ...... BACKGROUND: . Superpressure Balloons ........ Sky Anchor Balloons ..... 1 ....... 3 ............... 17 3. 10 14 2.................... 1 ..... ..... ... S 21 22 22 iv 0 0 ..... RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND LIMITATIONS .... 2... BALLOON SURVEILLANCE SCENARIO 1995 A.. 0 13 ... .......... III.. PERFLAN GULF WAR SCUD CAMPAIGN A.......... ...... IV.. SCUD CAMPAIGN EFFORTS ...... . Buoyancy and Lift B.... 4 5 .

V. .. Balloon Location After 360 Days 41 4...... 27 C........... CONCLUSIONS ................. 5.... 24 44 ......... 27 ..... Assumptions ..... 36 ... ....... 44 ... BALLOON SURVEILLANCE SYSTEM FEASIBILITY B.. 38 2.... A....... ... C.... ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION MODELING . ...... Balloon Location After 30 Days ...... 0 27 . 36 4. ......... 32 33 BALLOON TRAJECTORY PREDICTION PROGRAMS B....... 36 3... 43 . Measure of Balloon Drift ....... ........ PREDICTION SIMULATION DESIGN ....... 40 3.B................... AREAS FOR FUTURE STUDY ..... .. • .. 24 X........ Hypotheses . PREDICTION SIMULATION 0 30 ...... Zonally Averaged Circulation b.. .... 5..... 33 ........ a.. N • I •• • I II I • I I I0 Sb ......... Balloon Location After Ten Days 37 ................... . VI.... Physical Equipment .. Fundamental Motion Forces .......... Real World Meaning of Results ... .. 36 2.. 42 ......... Comparison of Categories . Statistical ................ ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ... Observed Circulation Patterns ..... 44 v • S. D.. 1..... A. SUMMARY OF ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION AND MODELING TRAJECTORY PREDICTION ...... ... 2.. 1.... * * 37 Design of Simulation ... DATA ANALYSIS 1.. . 38 .... .... Observed Circulation ..

..........59 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST..46 0 LIST OF REFERENCES..............61 0 * S vi 0 S 0 0 S 0 0S 0 ..............0 APPENDIX (MODIFIED GRAM-90 SOURCE CODE)...............................................................

.. TABLE TABLE II. 24 .. ALTITUDE-PRESSURE REFERENCE POINTS TABLE IV... TABLE VI... .. TABLE III. 39 360 DAY LATITUDE DISTRIBUTION . .. .. .. ...LIST OF TABLES I.... 42 0 0 vii • • • •• • •0 ...... SIMULATION VARIABLES AND VALUES TABLE V........... TABLE VII.... 8 HELIUM NEEDED FOR SELECTED PAYLOAD WEIGHTS 9 LIFT GAS COMPARISON .............. 37 39 LATITUDE ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE AT TEN DAYS INITIAL CONDITION SETS ...

.... ... 29 .......... . January Zonal Mean Winds .. 360 Day Latitude Displacement ....... * .. Pressure Gradient Force . ...... •0 . ..LIST OF FIGURES 0 Figure 1. . July Zonal Mean Winds .. ....... ........... .... October Zonal Mean Winds . 25 ..... 0 0 viii • •• 0 • ---- m0 •• . .....S.. S.. 29 Figure 10....... Figure 6. 10 Day Latitude Displacement . Basic Balloon Types .. Standard Atmosphere Temperature Profile.. Figure 9..... Figure 8.. 30 Day Latitude Displacement . 41 ... 40 Figure 13... .. 26 . .. U...... Zonal Mean Winds for Solstice Conditions Figure 7.. 29 29 . Figure 5..... Figure 11... Figure 2................ April Zonal Mean Winds ..... ..... 1976 .......... 13 22 Figure 3....... 25 .. .. . Geostrophic Winds ....... ... Sn .. 0 0 28 . Figure 4... ...... 40 Figure 12.. Coriolis Acceleration .............. ...... .....

0 W INTRODUCTION I. A. The purpose of this work is examine balloon using high altitude systems with to sensor payloads to increase our ability to detect and to locate enemy mobile tactical ballistic missile systems. RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND LIMITATIONS The that employing balloons as surveillance platforms at altitudes in excess of 21 basic kilometers hypothesis is of this study S Possible feasible. of mobile tactical ballistic we learned from the Persian Gulf War that such missiles are a threat and they are neither easily detected nor easily destroyed. 80 Scud missiles against included the firing of Coalition forces and This was actually the second employment of theater forces. B. 6 PURPOSE The Persian Gulf War of 1990-1991 more than Israel. ballistic missiles against United States' use of V-1 and V-2 rockets in World War II While the military importance missiles can be argued. is research questions include: "*How will balloons drift at higher altitudes? "*Will either "strategic" global circumnavigating balloons or "tactical" theater-employed balloons pass over or nearly over a designated target area to allow some set of these balloons to provide continuous coverage of a target area? 1 0 . Germany's was the first.

limited by these research discrete presented in in Thus. one month. where altitude balloon would surveillance go. 2 were used mean location of the perspective is time points. The systems question is drifting further at high narrowed to balloon location at specific times after launch: ten days.*What are the operational requirements of a balloon surveillance system: e. and statistical one year.g. analysis These of the locations variance drifting high altitude balloons. how many systems are needed for coverage of an area and what sensors are best? This study focuses on the question of balloon drift: that is. and disparate this thesis information. contains no for a The classified .

missile systems unreliable. S launch detection employed for Scud Scud operations were but post-war analysis has indicated that destroying 3 In sum. S The ratio of Scud total non-air assets S strike aircraft percent. PERSIAN GULF WAR SCUD CAMPAIGN BACKGROUND: II. result Given that the Allied Coalition this possibility.0 A. and out would of be the number of much more than five communication With this level (Patriot units. with the subsequent disintegrate. reported that five percent of the air the war were against the Scuds S sorties flown (Dunnigan. 1992. political Scud missiles during the war. degraded. and those significance the Scud missiles were The reasons were that Iraq had few Unfortunately. they had were inaccurate and conventional wisdom concerning the of the Scud attacks was equally unanimous: the attacks could easily bring Israel into the war. It is during 155). p. SCUD CAMPAIGN EFFORTS When Iraq first conventional militarily launched its wisdom was unanimous: insignificant. but that figure does not indicate the level of effort actually directed against the Scud threat. missions sorties flown flown significant sensors defense. zero pressure balloons can be used to reliably S S . Also. assets) of were effort. the Allies would had no choice but to mount a major effort against the Scuds.

and timeliness needed. * Provide day/night/all-weather coverage. which fired missiles. has become clear that we were not very effective in doing so. for sensors to detect and to Future sensors must: * Provide broad area coverage. Shortly before the U." (Israel. albeit Upon closer examination. 1993) We particularly had difficulty finding the launchers. low-risk surveillance of an area.S. accuracy. Costs and operational characteristics to of piloted vehicles low-cost. B. * Provide long dwell-time coverage. Army Strategic Defense Command requirements locate mobile missiles. "there are no confirmed reports of any Scud launchers that were destroyed by Coalition forces during the war. it usually after launch. however. defined systems. In fact. U S PERSIAN GULF SCUD CAMPAIGN DIFFICULTIES Initial claims reported by the services and published by the news media during and immediately after the war suggested that Allied forces were extremely effective in detecting and destroying mobile launchers. include several remotely precluded continuous.Scud launchers was a difficult job at best because of the complexities involved with detection and engagement. quickly repositioned: enough sensors in to engage them before they use were inadequate to provide the range. 4 0 0 S 0 0 0 S S Ask . * Overfly enemy areas. overhead and combat aircraft. the Persian Gulf War.

province.S "*Identify potential targets as mobile Scuds.S. stationed in with limited defensive units in in the Seeming to have learned from his failed 1990 invasion of Kuwait.N. S Saudi Arabia and place and with alerted strike forces on board ships Persian Gulf. However.) Israel are prepared. (Severance. United States (U.S. a free-floating high-altitude balloon surveillance system may be able to do so. control Kuwait. 1990. inspection teams. 0 "*Report in near-real time. Air raid sirens warn friendly personnel to 5 • • • •• • • . heightened tensions directed against the Kurds in the north. "*Cue attack assets. forces however. 28-29) What systems can meet these requirements? Our Gulf War argue that the U. of all and Iraqi defiance Iraqi saber-rattling long considered indicate an Iraqi underneath stifling U. currently has experience could be used to no sensor systems that satisfy all of these needs. out attack. C. Slaughtering of 0 Shiites in the south. of by United Nations about gaining Iraq as it's 19th intention to break out from sanctions through military action. pp. BALLOON SURVEILLANCE SCENARIO 1995 Iraqi behavior on several fronts has raised the Recent possibility of military confrontation. 0 Saddam Hussein daringly launches an all- simultaneously crossing the border into Kuwait with ground forces and launching Scud missiles at both Saudi Arabia and Israel.

. . "locks" onto the launcher.. El AN dl . carried Upon the launch of the Scuds. Despite an inability to engage the TELs before their departure from the launch area.take cover and to don protective 6 masks. an in-theater ground station * Aperture * The MTI repositions from That which location is directs the mobilization of alert aircraft from a carrier to attack the Scud. Smart munitions are subsequently launched to penetrate a sand-covered bunker.. and the Scud missiles are obliterated by the kinetic energy impacts high in the atmosphere. U.S. The dark night sky lights up brightly from the fireworks of intercepts. little easier as the Friendly personnel breath a "all-clear" is sounded and the counterattack against the Scud Transporter Erector Launchers (TELs) begins. U. then triggers a Moving Target Radar the Infrared sensor (MTI/SAR) Indicator/Synthetic and to point to the launch area. . Improved Patriot the anti-missile rockets streak from the ground to intercept Scud missiles before their targets can be reached. ! 1 • I I. 6 • • • L •I IIII IIIt nIItI i Ii i •• I I I I • I I I 1. where the TEL is destroyed. The MTI/SAR focuses upon the vehicle at the launch point. forces are able to track the TELs to their "hide" locations using reconnaissance balloons. which the SAR processing system identifies as a mobile launcher. in the balloon payload detects a launch plume. . the launch passed to tracking it as it location to a hide location.

about 240 B...) is to the defined by the (g) (I-Ma.. This equation indicates that any gas having a molecular weight less than the molecular weight of air is 0 a potentially useful lifting gas.) force equal Buoyancy which shows that balloon lift the balloon in between the * internal * and the external air density (pi.) (Vol.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 i U' III.) =(g) (Vol. "lifting (Vol.. Buoyancy and Lift Archimedes first 0 discovered the principle of buoyancy. The object of a balloon is to displace a large weight of air.C. helium next best. hydrogen. . that a body immersed in fluid is buoyed up by a vertical force equal in magnitude to the weight of the displaced fluid. of these molecular weight./M... A comparison of several capability is shown in Table 1. gases and their The medium with the smallest provides the greatest lift. lifting pp.ý) is dependent upon the volume of and the difference gas" density (p. 1975. with g being the acceleration due to gravity. (Morris.) (P.). equation Bouyancy=(p.. 0 BALLOON USE AND TECHNOLOGY BALLOON HISTORY 1. A.. IV-4 - 0 with IV-7) 0 7 • •• I0 II 0 • IIn • I I 0 •• II •0 00 4.-p. weight of the air thus gaining a buoyant displaced.

outside the balloon (hot air balloons).378 28. 8 It should be noted 5 . expensive. Vacuum Hydrogen Helium Ammonia Water Vapor (Steam) Air 0.000 0. p.862 0. "*ammonia is toxic in although it is high concentrations and it moderately liquifies easily.010 1.TABLE LIFT GAS COMPARISON I.412 0. IV-5) Table II shows examples of the lifting gas required for buoyancy for selected payload weights. 1975.030 18.960 0.000 2. "*hydrogen is readily available and inexpensive. but it is highly flammable. = Molecular Weight of Air A review of several sU Lift Index (I-M3 /M. "*helium is readily available.003 17.) Molecular Weight* Gas (STP) key characteristics lifting gases reveals why helium is of a few a common choice: "*a vacuum is ideal but obviously difficult to contain.930 0.000 * Standard Temperature and Pressure M.016 4. "*air is only if the inexpensive but it provides lift density of the air inside the balloon is less than the air (Morris. "*steam liquifies too readily. = Molecular Weight of Gas M.

Cyrano de Bergerac proposed using a belt consisting of glass phials filled with 0 dew to help him ascend to the stars in his book Voyages to the Moon and the Sun. pp.D. was not until 1250 A. HELIUM NEEDED FOR SELECTED PAYLOAD WEIGHTS Payload Weight Balloon Diameter (lb/kg) (ft) 100/ Lifting Gas Quantity (ft 3 ) 45 45 1520 500/225 130 7600 1000/450 200 15200 that the buoyancy of the balloon must be greater than the weight of the payload for the system to ascend: will not lift forces a payload if the buoyant force is holding the balloon down. Joseph concepts in November upwards and what Montgolfier 1782. 1975. that Roger Bacon suggested a vessel with some fluid Archimedes' 0 lighter than air to apply principle in the atmosphere. IV-4 - IV-7) Balloon Invention and Development It filling (Morris. 2. Thus. Jacques and published between 1657 and 1662. the balloon less than the the weight of the payload suspended below the balloon determines the amount of * lifting gas (and the size the weight of the balloon) needed to ensure sufficient buoyancy.TABLE II. would first and then demonstrated these Wondering why smoke always rose happen if the hot air could be 0 9 0 00000 0 0 0 0 0 .

1961. p. 1965. 97) Military Balloon Use Balloons were first the French Revolution in used for military purposes during 1794 at the Battle of Fleurus. fashioned balloon envelopes. lightweight The bag rose to the ceiling of their room.entrapped. father they was Sciences in paper then and bag (their and then their repeated it success outdoors. His observations were loudly proclaimed afterwards as key to the French victory. Frenchman Jean Coutelle went 450 meters aloft in balloon to observe enemy formations and where a tethered movements. gas permeability and longer duration flight. p. Technological stronger. more versatile X paper burned The Two centuries materials. 1965. both by the South and the North. Union use was much more successful. with a larger balloon before the Academy of Paris. p. decreased As a result. shapes. 5) of experimentation in and lifting gases have followed. (Glines. and films. 98) Surveillance balloons were successfully used during the American Civil War with much fanfare. much-acclaimed Professor Thaddeus Lowe who made led by the numerous 10 •• • 10 • • • SI * SS 55 5S . today's balloons can reliably fly higher and farther than ever before. 3. including plastic increased buoyancy. (Dollfus. advancements have introduced lighter. (Glines. Montgolfier's demonstrated a manufacturer). paper a underneath. These changes have resulted in thinner. sizes.

was that the Balloon Corps' transportation frequently taken away for other needs so it The result assets were became impossible to move the equipment: Professor Lowe failed to reach Antietam and Gettysburg quickly enough to provide observation of enemy movements. with Lowe quitting shortly after Gettysburg. powered served air with Professor Lowe during the American Civil War and he had become 11 • S • • InSmm'm •• mmmiSiS •S mlm m mm 0 . 11 tons of mail and 164 people had been successfully airlifted out. Balloons predominantly vehicles. 101-109) The Franco-Prussian War of 1870-71 saw an increase in balloon use during the siege of Paris. Zeppelin World or had Wars. in Count 122-127) were the used form Ferdinand during of von both dirigibles. By the end of the war. when citizens built 64 balloons which they used to escape and to send messages over the surrounding German troops. The difficulties in administrative organization and logistics led to the eventual disintegration of the Corps. pp. S Professor 0 0 0 I1 06 Lowe's largest contributions were made during the Peninsular Campaign in support of General Hooker. 1965. Unfortunately. 1965. (Glines. and the administration of his Balloon Corps was passed from one organization to another. neither Professor Lowe nor his fellow aeronauts were ever commissioned. Lowe frequently provided information about the enemy that could not have been obtained without his Balloon Corps of seven balloons and a Navy vessel. pp. (Glines.S S S surveillance flights 0 0 from 1861 to 1863.

program was their not worth trans-ocean (Glines. The non-rigid French airship could provide long-range surveillance and carry bombs. himself. The U.S. the U. work was done concurrently with the development 12 Air This of the U-2 . (Macksey. so their use was limited. government requested that newspapers not report that the balloons were reaching the mainland. World War carrying II.S. who had crafted a non-rigid airship which could fly at 11 miles per hour powered by an electric engine. Also parchment pp. higher-flying fighter aircraft equipped with machine guns. Force began research on a balloon In 1950. The Count built a new rigid airship. continuing. success rate was 143-147) American military use was prompted by the Japanese program's success. which demonstrated the potential of using jetstream winds to propel balloons.0 alarmed by the developments made by the French. pp. 48-49) during balloons United States. 1965. named after Zeppelin The Zeppelins were used by the Germans during both World Wars for resupply and bombing. the incendiary Japanese sent devices toward 9000 the About 1000 balloons reached the North American continent. but the hydrogen-filled dirigibles were vulnerable to faster. but the only recorded casualties were five children and a woman at a picnic in Oregon. 1986. surveillance system to provide reconnaissance overflights of the Soviet Union. and the media blackout led the Japanese to conclude despite the that their fact that actually rather good.

Indefinite Endurance Indefinite Endurance Basic Balloon Types 13 H i i. to photograph over I million square miles of the Sino-Soviet area. CURRENT BALLOON TECHNOLOGY The three superpressure.i i i i i I II I IIIII II I I I .. Daloce High Stress Sealed Envelope o. pp. at a cost of only $48... They drifted across Asia at 13. Figure 1 (after 0 S described below. pictures. taking and while many landed over foreign territory. . SUPER PRESSURE Low Stress Envelope zero are shown in Each type is ZERO PRESSURE balloons. pressure. however. the system was put into operation with balloons January containing cameras launched from five locations in Europe. .reconnaissance aircraft and early satellite research. . S .. anc Lawrence Livermore). program was discontinued on March 1.O "*A. In s 1956. about 40 were successfully recovered from the Pacific Ocean. 1956 The following Soviet protests and a Washington Post story on February The 10.OO 1 Low Cost One Week Endurance Figure 1. . (Davies.6 kilometers altitude. i la. basic types of sky anchor. program was able. 59-61) B..49 per square mile. SKY ANCHORE Pre. 1988.ut PAYLOAD SSUPER PRESSURE IPA..

As dependent upon the the gas temperature increases. p. for science. The basic principles of zero pressure balloons have not changed in the 200-plus years since first open at the bottom. In the first case. helium. the 14 0 * S 0 0 0 0 S 0 S 0 .)(pg. 0 Zero Pressure Balloons The zero pressure balloon.. and recreational purposes. Slight overpressure is inside the balloon above this point in shape of the envelope. military.) (B) of the lifting Since and density are related by where B is a scaling constant. balloon volume decreases. maintained higher order to retain the (Lawrence Livermore. balloon buoyancy results from the balloon's volume. gas. the altitude of a zero pressure balloon is temperature decreases. inflated with a gas (usually hot air. atmospheric displacement. balloon volume increases and as the gas temperature decreases. is flight: a non-extensible bag. the equation P=(T. and that buoyancy decreases as the lifting gas becomes more dense or as balloon volume lifting gas pressure. temperature. following From the equation for buoyancy it can be seen that buoyancy increases as the lifting gas becomes less dense. 8) As previously noted. The term "zero pressure is pressure" is used because the internal gas equal to the external gas pressure near the base of the balloon. 1990. the Montgolfier brothers. is first built and flown by the type of balloon most used today. or hydrogen) lighter than the surrounding atmosphere. or Archimedes principle.1.

1992. gas is it X will the balloon becomes less buoyant and it the second case.fall in altitude. In will rise in altitude. to a vented. 4) balloon is equilibrium altitude. (Rand. out of the balloon). or forced the balloon is new more density-equilibrium At night. The decrease in displaced air means the balloon will lose altitude until a new density-equilibrium altitude is 1992. mission duration of zero pressure limited to five to seven days. balloon becomes more buoyant and it becomes more dense. heat the internal gas. p. Assume a zero (Rand. or in periods of cloudiness. An example helps illustrate the cycle a balloon would follow. conditions such as at the except in rare poles. pressure p. 4) 0 A zero pressure altitude only when gas is rising). During the day. cooled and it constant. altitude. resulting either in floating at an solar radiation will increased volume (if the balloon is not fully inflated) or in decreased density (if the balloon is fully inflated. balloon may remain vented (if a constant the gas temperature is or when ballast is dropped (if falling). the lifting Pressure remains so the balloon envelope decreases in volume. because approximately eight percent of the system mass (balloon plus 15 f i vd but varies in altitude deDendinq upon latitude and time . at the gas temperature is Even when using these techniques to control zero pressure balloon balloons is environmental flight. reached. In buoyant rise and will gas is either case.

8) This example increase illustrates mission duration. p. Thus.000 over Antarctica. During its nine day mission.000 feet because there is very little stress on the balloon envelope. and altitude changes. which maximized the mission duration of the balloon. (Rand. A group of researchers has reported the successful flight of a zero pressure balloon for 40 days above A pressure sensor was used to Antarctica. In December 1990. 5) Recent developments in automatic ballasting have made it possible to extend zero pressure balloon mission duration at high altitudes in unmanned flight. 1992 p. (Rand. 2) The condition of 24 hours per day of sunlight minimized ballast requirements. (Winzen. a 29. 1991. automatic ballasting would may of it increase * mission duration so dramatically at mid-latitudes.payload plus ballast) must be dropped each night to maintain altitude. gas venting. 0 16 0S 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 * 4D . automatically release two kilograms of ballast whenever the balloon descended to two kilometers below the desired float altitude of 30 kilometers. p. the balloon circumnavigated the Antarctic continent (more than 4. Zero pressure balloons can carry several * thousand pounds of payload to altitudes as high as 130.47 million cubic foot helium balloon carried a 3750 pound payload to an altitude of 130.000 miles) and landed its payload only 113 miles from the launch point. that but the unique Antarctica was a significant factor in remains to be seen if ballasting automatic environment this case.

Superpressure Balloons Superpressure balloons are similar to zero pressure balloons. pressures lightweight. was developed during World War II. envelope volume results in This constant altitude stability at a constant density altitude where system weights are in equilibrium with the surrounding atmosphere. 2) The first superpressure after Montgolfier's first balloon was flown shortly flight.In sum. Even though the internal pressure varies slightly due to changes in internal gas temperature. but significant research of superpressure balloons was not pursued until polyethylene. 1970. 1991. 2. Polyethylene was tested extensively as the envelope in zero pressure with balloons during the 1950's. zero pressure balloons can be used to reliably U lift large payloads to significantly high altitudes. these balloons remain at a constant volume because of the strength of the envelope. a synthetic material with the physical properties necessary for superpressure envelopes. create except that the envelope is a pressurized envelope sealed at the bottom to so no gas can escape. * * (Winzen. The require a film envelope that is free of pinholes. then tried From 1968 through numerous superpressure balloon flights were conducted by 17 month database of properties in four dimensions: latitude. and impermeable to gas diffusion. high internal thin yet strong. superpressure balloons beginning in 1961. p. U . but only for about a week at mid-latitudes.

the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). balloons were at flown altitudes of 16-24 Over 200 kilometers for durations of up to 744 days. Payloads were less than one pound.. In (NSBF) (Lawrence 52) the National Balloon Scientific Facility conducted Project Boomerang: Two 20 meter diameter polyester superpressure spheres were successfully flown from Australia. it * 0 was found that the materials being used had the propensity for failure catastrophic manufacture or in from flaws handling. As attempts were made to scale the balloons to larger sizes. 1991. 1) Throughout the 1970's and 1980's. p. 1973. developed either in superpressure ballooning research was reduced while zero pressure balloon research was emphasized. the other lasted 212 days. material available for superpressure Mylar was the best balloons. (Winzen. status not stated) (Rand. with payloads Both of 52 kilograms and 46 kilograms respectively. that Thus. so is a poor gas barrier. flights circumnavigated the globe: one flight lasted 36 days and was recovered within 16 kilometers of the [recovery launch point. 9) Multiple superpressure balloon flights were conducted during the 1970's by various organizations with mixed results. today are really superpressure balloons. p. Mylar develops pinholes during manufacture. indeed the small Mylar balloons that may be bought at any number of gift or party stores Unfortunately. p. 1990. Livermore. 1992. and Mylar superpressure balloons are it 0 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ••• 0 Aft 0 .. with altitude deviations of less than 100 meters.

impermeability properties desired. 1991. 1992. Two balloon. 1) Recognizing the potential applications of stable high altitude balloons. using 1992. is oriented nylon film which has the strength. * * Research has shown that the altitude of a balloon made of this material will vary independent of from day to night by only the size permeability measurements of the test Furthermore. kilogram payload to an altitude of 20 kilometers. Winzen The best material. U. pp. demonstrate that the life of this balloon should exceed four years. (Winzen. In August meter diameter balloon was launched in Utah. Synthetic and gas films are usually stressed in only one direction during manufacture but this material directions. p. a payload 23 meter to an diameter altitude of balloon 33 carried this a nine carrying a kilometers. determined from a 1991 study by International of San Antonio.1-3) conducted biaxially oriented nylon material. 200 meters. flights have (Rand. Texas. been 1991.S limited to payloads 6 less than 100 pounds at high altitudes. is a nylon film that is stressed in two This process orients the film's molecules so that the material is as strong laterally as it is longitudinally. a 14 In October 23 Both kilogram balloons maintained their design altitudes until they were destroyed by 19 0S AM AI . a biaxially weight. 1-1 . Agency (DARPA) (SBIR) the Defense Advanced Research Project sponsored a Small Business Innovative Research program to develop a superpressure system with better materials.

56) to 36 one year. As the zero pressure balloon ascends due to * the superpressure balloon becomes heavier than the surrounding air. material continue with the following goals: "*Within payload to 36 18 months.* S S 0 0 Test flights of superpressure command. 1992. original equilibrium point. of balloonb and payloads have The theory of operation at altitude 20 • ** • nn •• ~lli * •S | i I* nNN 0 . 1990. and even various configurations produced limited results. The challenges involved in handling and launching two balloons simultaneously are significant. warming. gain lift altitude excursions The idea is and to achieve to fly two balloons together to capacity with the zero pressure balloon and to gain altitude stability with the superpressure balloon by using it as air ballast. 9) Sky anchor systems have been constructed and flown. but with little success. preventing the entire system from ascending to an altitude that would require gas to be vented from the zero pressure balloon. (D. a 23 kilogram "*Within 3. Brown. fly a 450 kilogram payload kilometers for 30 days. 0 * 0 I balloons with this a. Cooling the gas in the zero pressure balloon returns the system to its (Lawrence Livermore. p. p. Sky Anchor Balloons The sky anchor is a hybrid system combining zero pressure balloons and superpressure balloons in an attempt to stabilize zero pressure extended flight. fly kilometers for 30 days.

the EarthWinds (S. and superpressure. 52) The most famous sky anchor system is project. the difficulty lies in (Winzen. Brown. 80-126) SUMMARY OF BALLOON USE AND HISTORY A variety of balloons have been used effectively for a number of purposes in military conflicts since their invention by Frenchmen in 1782. Currently. of large carrying superpressure zero pressure for future zero pressure balloons are capable payloads for balloons are capable up to a of smaller week while payloads for 0 many weeks or even years. (Lawrence Livermore. the system to an W 3) The NSBF conducted a series of tests with sky anchors in the late 1970's. it an unlikely pp. Unfortunately. 1990. 1991.is fine. p. altitude variations of up to six kilometers were frequent. 1992. throughout. equilibrium altitude. The crew's attempts have not been and they have encountered significant skepticism scientific community and the media the sky anchor's poor record make candidate for military use. seem to offer good potential military use. from the Overall. successful. C. Two types of balloons. 21 0 SI I I S I IIIIS AM 0I I . Numerous launch problems were experienced. but one system carrying 227 kilograms was able to 0 remain at about 36 kilometers altitude for four days. getting p. which in recent years has made repeated attempts to circumnavigate the globe.

U. 1976 20. • sp[00 0 So.01 ME f os 001 D 7 50. an understanding in the earth's atmospheric section describes the differences 0 latitude. Temperature in Figure TH[Rft 2.S.3.. ATMOSPHERE STRUCTURE A. ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION AND MODELING IV. stratosphere. Standard Atmosphere Temperature Profile. based on the vertical four layers layers. . circulation based upon altitude. 0 . and time of year. "cc the troposphere. • • III I0 • III • 22 • 50 • goo • II I M W 200 IIl . are 0005 0. Meteorologists conventionally divide the atmosphere into These gradient of temperature.0 20 50 TEMPCAATUI• |K) Figure 2. to any discussion Central balloons is of the use of free-floating This of atmospheric dynamics. as shown mesosphere. and the thermosphere. 2 x So UC ZOO 20 240 26.

The air density also decreases with altitude as 0 23 0 0 0 0 0 • • • 0 • 0 • S • 0 0 • 0 . varies in increases in the troposphere mass all of the atmospheric 0 separates the troposphere a level of temperature minimum which height from about 15 kilometers at the equator to nine kilometers at the poles. In addition to temperature. measured with one bar Standard sea pressure (STP) equals 1013. several altitude-pressure reference points are provided in Table III.0 generally decreases with height in the troposphere and in the mesosphere. in level Air pressure decreases with altitude.5 (mb) or in Pressure is kilopascals pounds per square inch. velocity. (Andrews. a level of temperature minimum similar to the tropopause at about 80 kilometers. Pressure is 1987.325 kPa. Density is the amount of a 0 substance per unit measure or mass at standard pressure and temperature. which is with height thermosphere. three other properties characterize the atmosphere: pressure.3) * * physical density and defined as the amount of force applied over a surface or force per unit area. (kPA). either millibars equal to 14. and water vapor. in it the 85 percent of The the total for virtually The tropopause. p. which can be either the earth's surface or an air parcel. The mesosphere is the bounded above by the mesopause. accounts and the stratosphere. and it generally stratosphere and accounts almost for atmosphere. The stratopause is a level of temperature maximum near 50 kilometers which separates stratosphere and the mesosphere.25 mb or 101.

and momentum. 1979. measured in meters per second. The motions of fundamental laws of 0 the atmosphere are governed by the laws of fluid mechanics and thermodynamics: conservation of mass. friction. all three of these physical quantities have an impact upon balloon lift B. (1013) (116) (44) (11) (5) (2) Velocity is a measure 0 of wind speed relative to the ground.000 (36. the 0 The primary forces which cause atmospheric motion are the pressure gradient force.3) 100. in the direction 0 as shown in Figure 3. 0 energy. and also acts Coriolis force.5) 120.000 (30.000 (42. (Holton.5-17) An object or air parcel accelerates of the applied pressure gradient force.000 (21.1) ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION Fundaaental Notion Forces 1. and drift. As noted in the discussion on balloon buoyancy. upon the 0 (Holton.000 (15.6) 140. 0 24 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1% . atmosphere 1979.7) 2116 242 93 23 11 5 both pressure and temperature decrease.2) 70. the one to cause gravitational force "apparent" motion: the force. p. ALTITUDE-PRESSURE REFERENCE POINTS U 0 PRESSURE lb/ft2 & (mb) ALTITUDE ft & (km) Sea Level 50.TABLE III. p. Additionally.

which is an apparent force or effect which accounts for the rotation of the earth.. respect to the earth. .5-7) circulation are both Coriolis force. • • •• S. The rotation of the earth imparts spin to an air particle in the atmosphere.. Figure or coriolis As shown in 4.. with Figure 4 (after Lawrence Coriolis Acceleration 25 • .. 0 .. ..O PIP. have an angular which causes the air particle to momentum. p. This force is active through the entire atmosphere. 5 IS II •S I| U S I . Tropospheric and stratospheric strongly influenced by the (Holton. not to the pressure itself.. acceleration.. . Gradient s mr Force The pressure gradient force is proportional to the gradient of the pressure field.. .. . • . . 1979.

Friction is where atmospheric earth's surface. the Coriolis x accelerated by the pressure gradient acceleration will increase until it reaches a balance as shown in Figure 5 (after Lawrence SPAME LOW PRESSURE iStatint point HIGH PRESSURE UMT8 Figure Livermore). 1979. this angular momentum varies with latitude. 1990. 296-298) 26 S. 0 Goostrophic Winds The balance causes "geostrophic" winds that flow the isobars at a speed proportional to the pressure gradient and inversely proportional to the sine of the latitude. As the air particle is force. * S S SS 5 $ S S . motion is retarded by contact with the Friction thus influences circulation in the lower troposphere but its only effect at higher altitudes is indirect through the interaction of tropospheric eddy motions with the lower stratosphere. pp.Livermore). parallel to 5. p. 25) important near the surface of the earth. (Holton. with no Coriolis acceleration for horizontal motion at the equator. (Lawrence Livermore.

or eddies. The net radiative heating distribution has a strong seasonal dependence with maximum heating at the summer pole and maximum cooling at the winter pole. from At this the study of upper atmosphere circulation patterns has revealed that there are only a handful of general cases of circulation.2. b. Observed Circulation Patterns A combination of radiosonde data. The Coriolis torque exerted by this meridional flow generates mean zonal easterlies (from the east) in the summer hemisphere and westerlies in the winter hemisphere. p. time. 1987. recently. and. the deviations from these means. The 27 • • • •• • • . while meridional mean winds are perpendicular to stratospheric circulation the equator. Zonally Averaged Circulation All references in U atmospheric circulation studies create a distinction between the longitudinally averaged flow. 0 Observed Circulation a. which is either zonal mean flow or meridional mean flow. rocketsonde data. and that upper atmosphere circulation is influenced by the annual solar cycle. more satellites. (Andrews. and Zonal mean winds are parallel to the equator. in This terms section of zonally describes averaged circulation. remote temperature soundings have provided meteorologists with a much clearer picture ol stratospheric dynamics than ever before. 6) The circulation patterns vary gradually from month to month during the annual cycle and they recur regularly.

.. from the west) and easterly (negative. 6) An. 313) 5 * the transition between the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres at the equinoxes results in weak mean zonal westerlies in both hemispheres. p. minimum winds . 1987. below: * the extratropical. 40. 1987... p. 8) i S I. . . pattern is westerly zonal-mean winds in the winter hemisphere. to th altitude. *0 IDI aw z SUVNER HEMISPHER Figure 6. (Andrews..... Figure 6 shows zonal mean winds in meters per second for solstice conditions with W and E designating centers of westerly (positive.. respectively. important fromCondtion Figure 6 is Zoa Mea point wid tofoobserve Sostc kSr wind speed r . . 259) * the equatorial pattern is an alternating pattern of eastward and westward winds that repeat at intervals varying from about 22 to 34 months. (Andrews. with an average period of about 27 months (though there is a six month cycle at 0-0 higher levels). p. p. 1987.. or non-equatorial. . not . (Andrews. (JUN) VINTER HEMISPHERE (DEC) Zonal Mean Winds for Solstice 0 6 Conditions * stratospheric sudden winter warmings in the Northern Hemisphere lead to mean-flow deceleration and even to a reversal of the winds to easterly. from the east) winds. is that 20 p. 1987. ly region of 28 at approximately (A d.general categories of stratospheric circulation are listed . (Andrews. v r kilometers a seems of. e s . and easterly zonal-mean winds in the summer hemisphere. be wi at d This a minimum ea te .

Figure 7.n o su't I . -- -.RalWlldM l~. but varies in altitude depending upon latitude and time of year. * FigureS - Octobe Zonal Mean winds • . Figures 7-10 show that altitudes of 30-40 kilometers appear to be the most promising for balloon s S surveillance operations.fixed.ReraW :!~ I Zonal Mean Winds R ~I - a-. . January Zonal Mean Winds Figure S. -rJly Zonal MeanWid 29 Figure 10. S. April Zoa Ma inds : Figure9.

422) A model based on historical atmospheric data is the Global Reference Atmosphere Model. developed Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton. Aeronautical from several developed at currently the responsibility of and Space Administration sources and over several compute monthly averages of atmospheric properties. the need to understand the earth's primarily because of climate and weather. FORTRAN (NASA). (Andrews. or GRAM. 12- 30 • S S ••• • S 0 •• •S 5 0 .O C. One general circulation model based on a simulation of the physical processes is the SKYHI model. surface pressure. 1987. by the SKYHI is considered to provide the most complete representation of the middle atmosphere: the surface of it the has 40 prediction levels extending from earth to about predicted fields include wind. Circulation of concerns about the models fall into two those based on simulated physical processes and those based on historical data. years to including GRAM provides a worldwide. ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION MODELING The majority of atmospheric circulation models that have been developed are tropospheric models. 80 kilometers temperature. which is the National uses data GRAM. an empirical computer simulation of the earth's atmosphere Georgia Tech. much more work dealing with the stratosphere has been done in the last 20-30 years because earth's ozone categories: layer. and the water vapor and p. However. wind speed and wind direction.

0 provide analysis. of atmospheric 1993) but the 0 models just demonstrate the basic types and capabilities of circulation models. Of these. also produces slightly different data. are each but and Like GRAM. which to 1-18) for values. 0 These perturbation values are drawn from the historical record of winds to provide a broad conditions at a given point. and altitude. an entire month for a longitude. Other described models are perspective (Jeffries. insufficient data for the designers of the pp. There are two key The first is that points to keep in mind when using the GRAM. the six month (Hawkins. and time of year. caused with it of produced version. Southern Hemisphere represent it Hemisphere data. a provides for with standard deviations. altitude. GRAM-90 useful databases for statistical in particular. given combination Secondly. X longitude. SKYHI is more of a "prediction" model. and the while GRAM. GRAM to GRAM-90. the GRAM contains statistically averaged data: mean wind speed and direction. data actual month. 1991. it new from 0 called appropriately extensive utilize 0 Northern of displacement 1990 in 0 latitude.month database of properties in four dimensions: latitude. available. a distribution analysis 0 . This second shortcoming of GRAM was alleviated in its latest 0 mostly from the 0 0 GRAM-90 "perturbation" the mean values. GRAM-90 incorporates gathered by Southern Hemisphere provides mean values satellites. 31 narrow over short periods of time.

should it be noted that N. SUMMARY OF ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION AND MODELING To sum up. stratospheric circulation is different than that of the troposphere and that models which describe atmospheric circulation are available. Stratospheric winds are fairly stable. 32 • • • •• • •0 . they will cause them to This is the subject of the S next chapter. However.O D. relatively light and their circulation patterns vary during the year as a result of the annual solar cycle. even though wind circulation seems favorable for military balloon operations. it remains to be seen if the circulation patterns will cause a free floating balloon to "orbit" the earth or if congregate in localized patterns.

balloon predicting trajectory vertical 0 The paucity of study led DARPA to sponsor Coleman Research Corporation (CRC) to develop 33 • • • •• • • Al . the variability of free-floating high altitude balloon trajectories is not extreme: as described in Chapter enough IV. been done with in the the area exception of of trajectories of weather balloons. BALLOON TRAJECTORY PREDICTION PROGRAMS 0 A study of relevant literature reveals that very little work has prediction. Balloon trajectories satellite orbits. people reject out of hand the idea of using free-floating balloons for military surveillance or communications missions because of the uncertainty involved.3. V. TRAJECTORY PREDICTION Generally speaking. the variability of stratosphere may conventional Thus.. winds in to provide the upper fairly stratosphere may be stable constant trajectories. balloon a statistical wisdom about analysis of trajectories be useful either the in to confirm potential because of the upper or to refute free-floating balloons. Balloons travelling in these winds may even be able to provide better coverage of an area than low-earth orbiting satellites of longer time over target. aircraft. cannot be predicted accurately like nor are balloons tightly controlled like However. A.

expendable 0 balloons for a variety of military missions. intent was to build a desk-top. and they needed a model to predict how balloons would drift in order to assess the feasibility of several concepts. p. a Balloon Drift Pattern Simulation X were interested in exploiting high-altitude. the simulation calls for patterns above this altitude. the forecast data must be extrapolated or a climate model must be used. deployable enable a balloon missions.4 I DARPA personnel (BDPS). CRC to develop a Macintosh-based version of the BDPS. 0 • •0 34 • 0 • • •• . commander theater-level systems for (Hawkins. Chapter IV. CRC wrote an upper- pattern simulation for execution and display atmosphere drift output of drift predicting of patterns using technical a digital of the SBIR. a time-step to assess communications The aid that would how to or employ surveillance * 1-18) simulation which draws upon a database of wind tables to compute a balloon drift pattern. the demonstrating computers. The BDPS is either 1991. DARPA required In Phase II computer simulation. In Phase I on VAX feasibility an SBIR project. This database can be actual wind tables (either archived wind data or forecast wind data) or a climate model. The user chooses the database based on his needs: archived and forecast data (such as the Navy's NOGAPS data from the Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center) is 30 kilometers drift only available to an altitude of about If (10 millibars). several climate models are As described in available for use.

made to the program so that it balloon drift. which produced the atmospheric conditions at the new location. 35 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 A S . p. This wind vector and time step process was repeated for a year and the balloon's future analysis. 1-18) The combination of the BDPS program and the DARPA study on superpressure balloons demonstrated the potential of balloon systems. recorded use and intermittently analysis of for this simulation are described in more detail in the next section.Since BDPS is used on a Macintosh. the personnel at DARPA who were interested in such systems rotated to other duty stations and the balloon system ideas have not been pursued. This vector This new location was then treated as another start point input for the model. source code was added to convert * 6 0 6 the wind direction and wind speed for a designated time step into a drift vector to apply to the initial balloon start point (altitude. (Hawkins. The GRAM-90 is not a drift prediction model in that it provides atmospheric data for a specific point of altitude. is quite large (39 Megabytes) but it it it is mostly user-friendly. is and it . modifications were could be used as to describe Specifically. longitude. latitude. and date. 1991. and date). also very slow: takes about 10 minutes to calculate and to display just 24 hours of a trajectory. latitude. was used to compute a new balloon location. However. longitude. Unfortunately. location was The design.

to a random number generator used in the unmodified program. 1. Hypotheses The null hypothesis was that the trajectories of free- floating balloons drifting at 36 kilometers altitude would not follow regular or repeating patterns of drift. Since a balloon will achieve equilibrium with the assumption is that a one the winds surrounding it. hour time step is sufficiently small to accurately describe the balloon's trajectory using only the wind speed and wind direction outputs from the model. altitude and month). were produced. 36 • • •0 . varying trajectories for changed each replication of The seed was randomly a given set of conditions (latitude. alternative hypothesis was that these balloons would The indeed follow regular or repeating patterns of drift. Data analysis package. Physical Equipment The modified GRAM-90 used was on the Naval Postgraduate School's Amdahl mainframe computer emulating an IBM 3270.PREDICTION SIMULATION DESIGN B. Assumptions * GRAM-90 as modified is a valid balloon drift prediction simulation. longitude. locations were recorded as desired to provide data initial Balloon for a determination of the variability of the trajectories. u The basic design of the simulation was to use the modified GRAM-90 as a time-step simulation of balloon movement By changing the input seed resulting from winds at altitude. 3. was completed using the Minitab also on the mainframe. statistical 2.

The vertical position of the balloon was assumed to be unchanging in an attempt to study the horizontal trajectory of a drifting balloon. In fact. although they tended to average out over time. and Latitude was in a form suitable for analysis in its range from -900 to +900. it was necessary to convert longitude from absolute degrees to a degree difference from the starting longitude. " Balloon altitude is constant. difference of only two degrees between yet there is -1790 and +179 0 . which were chosen since atmospheric conditions vary with each. from many years of data ensured validity." 6 GRAM-90 is a valid atmospheric model of winds at altitude. " Balloon ascent is assumed to be instantaneous to a point directly overhead the starting latitude and starting longitude. or perturbation values. SIMULATION VARIABLES AND VALUES Month Latitude March 450 S June 0' September 45' N December Longitude 90' E 900 W 37 0 At . 5. was measured 30 days. Statistical Design of Simulation Table IV lists the simulation's variables and values. in latitude and 360 days. Longitude was not in a suitable form: in normal mathematical operations -179 is 178 units away from +179. GRAM-90 describes atmospheric conditions at a specific point. the wind speeds varied considerably more than expected. 0 a Thus. Tropospheric winds which would have an effect on the horizontal position of a balloon during ascent were not be modeled for this simulation. TABLE IV. s Measure of Balloon Drift Balloon location longitude after ten days. 4. Although the GRAM-90 has averaged data. the available portion was conditions above 30 kilometers. the assumption is that drawing the standard deviations.

to each other for a broader perspective. upon the numerical values derived from the ANOVA were The ANOVA shows that ending latitude was dependent starting longitude Since the data was latitude (P = 0.variable are not all-inclusive but were chosen to provide a cross-section for each factor. an Analysis (ANOVA) for latitude shown in Table V was used to of Variance indicate which factors were significant. not normal.547). PREDICTION SIMULATION DATA ANALYSIS Data was separated into three categories for analysis: ten days. Despite a lack of normality. 1. and 360 days. the three categories were compared tests. and month. and then the variance of the means and statistical medians was compared through a variety of Lastly. Balloon Location After Ten Days 24 sets of initial Data from all conditions in category was found to be neither normal nor uniform. this Latitude of a balloon after drifting ten days does follow a pattern but longitude does not. Data in each was category checked for normality and uniformity. Each of The values of each x 0 the 24 possible combinations of these variables was used to specify the initial conditions for multiple replications of the simulation. 38 • 0 II 0 I 0I II I •• I • I IIII0 •• •0 l t 0 . 30 days. C. not valid. but not on starting Ending longitude was also dependent upon starting latitude and month. and it was dependent upon starting longitude only for Equator launches.

START . LATITUDE ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE AT TEN DAYS MTB > anova 'lat' Factor MONTH SLAT SLONG - 'month' 'slat'l'ulong' Type Levels Values fixed 4 3 fixed 3 -45 fixed 2 -90 6 0 90 0 9 45 12 Analysis of Variance for LAT Source MONTH SLAT SLONG MONTH*SLAT MONTH*SLONG SLAT*SLONG MONTH*SLAT*SLONG Error Total LAT MONTH SLAT SLONG DF 3 2 1 6 3 2 6 720 743 SS 50405 1158260 12 15835 5394 4755 5796 23202 1263658 .40 579130 1.ENDING LATITUDE .START MONTH .547 0.000 0.000 .000 0. was analyzed further TABLE VI.Degrees of Freedom = Sum of Squares = Mean Square = F Test Statistic = P-Value W * Since longitude was found not to be a significant factor.8E+04 12 0.77 2377 966 29.36 2639 81. SET NUMBER 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 in the configuration shown in data Table VI.TABLE V.98 32 DF SS MS F P LATITUDE LONGITUDE P 0.000 0.000 0. INITIAL CONDITION SETS MONTH LATITUDE MAR MAR MAR JUN JUN JUN SEP SEP SEP DEC DEC DEC 450 00 450 450 00 45 0 450 00 450 450 o° 450 S N S N S N S N LONGITUDE 900 90 0 900 900 900 90 0 900 900 900 900 900 900 E/900 E/90 0 E/900 E/900 E/900 E/90 0 E/90 0 E/900 E/900 E/900 W W W W W W W W W W E/90 0 W E/900 W 0 39 • •• • •• •0 0 .000 0.START MS F 16802 521.90 1798 55.79 73.

O
Figure 11 shows mean latitudinal displacement distances for
this

category

where

balloons

remained

degrees of their starting latitude.

within

about

X,

eight

This deviation varies by

30

I

2

4

3

5

I

7

8
S

10 11 12

Figure 11.
10 Day Latitude
Displacement
month, with June (initial

condition sets 4-6) being the month

when the balloons remained closest to the starting latitude
and March (sets 1-3)
2.

0

0

having the largest deviation.

Balloon Location After 30 Days
As

in

the

ten day

neither normal nor uniform.

category,

data

was

found

to be

0

Figure 12 shows mean latitudinal

200

o

2

3

4 5 I
7 S 9 I 0 1 ! 12
MTWAICGOW!O SEI

Figure 12.
30 Day Latitude
Displacement

C

40

0

S

displacement

distances

within

drifted
latitude.

about

for

this

category,

where

balloons

of

their

starting

degrees

nineteen

The deviations were smallest again in June.

indicated that balloon location after 30 days is
upon

all

factors:

month,

starting

latitude,

and

ANOVA

dependent
starting

longitude.
3.

Balloon Location After 360 Days
Figure

13

shows

mean

latitudinal

displacement

for

balloons after 360 days of drift: the balloons usually drifted

120
sao
40

20
S2

3

0

0 6

?

£

S 00 n

2I

Figure 13.
360 Day Latitude
Displacement
over

sixty

degrees

from their starting

latitude.

Table VII shows that balloons tend to drift
after almost a year.
nor uniform.

The ANOVA for

ending latitude is
is

dependent

month.

Once again,

again

neither normal
indicates that

not related to starting longitude,

upon both starting

latitude

fact,

toward the poles

the data is

latitude

In

but it

and the starting

Most often, balloons launched from North of the Equator

41

5

0

••

00

5

00S,

N0

TABLE VII.
360 DAY LATITUDE
DISTRIBUTION

X,

N - 744
Each * represents 10 obs.

0

Histogrm of LAT

Midpoint

Count
350 •
9
8
36
26
38 *
19
88

"-80
-60

-40
-20
0
20
40
60

170

so

tended to drift

***********.***

toward the North Pole,

and balloons launched

from South of the Equator tended to drift
Pole,

although

there were anomalies

toward the South

where balloons drifted

toward the pole opposite their launch hemisphere.
4.

Comparison of Categories
It can be seen from all three categories that balloons

follow

regular

displacement.
from

start

categories,

or

repeating

patterns

in

their

latitudinal

Further, as might be expected, the displacement
latitude

increased

over

time.

ending latitude was found to be

In

all

three

dependent upon

starting latitude and month but not on starting

longitude.

Starting longitude was found not to be a significant factor,
except for an Equator launch in the 30 day category.

42

one-half global completed between complete global of the distances An examination fairly involved most balloons circumnavigation and one The mean difference circumnavigation. or a ground distance of approximately kilometers. the of the portion obviously would A "theater" surveillance balloon which would be employed for less than ten days. illustrates this importance. even balloon with retains a shifted distance visibility original footprint. Real World Meaning of Results The most important finding of the analysis of the data is that balloon drift patterns over ten days follow narrow patterns.5 degrees. Thus. an altitude of 36 the balloon has a line-of-sight footprint on the ground of 730 kilometers radius or 1460 kilometers diameter. kilometers. U in latitude at that time was 8. After ten days. 43 • • • •• • •S . would have even less drift. perhaps even for as little as one or two days.5. 950 At kilometers. have drift of a of 950 sizable although that footprint dramatically longitudinally.

less. since it altitudes Additionally. A. Such a system would provide a significant improvement in the United States' B. it balloon of that the This study would be helpful to examine 0 variance drift at a variety based on altitude. * 0 missile defense posture. other 0 simulations would be valuable. "tactical" high altitude probably with flights of three days or Such balloon systems could be recovered by steerable parachute or mid-air "snatch" after theater transit. looked only at 36 kilometers.0 VI. ground speed outfitted much with less than appropriate that of sensors. satellites With a and they would if provide a 0 surveillance system that could overfly enemy areas to identify and to locate mobile ballistic missile systems to be attacked. It is recommended simulation be replicated at different altitudes. Also. AREAS FOR FUTURE STUDY 0 There are many potential areas for further study with this subject. appears that drift to examine the and perhaps more patterns are fairly 0 44 0 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 . One suggestion would be to actually launch balloons to check the validity of the simulation model. CONCLUSIONS BALLOON SURVEILLANCE SYSTEM FEASIBILITY The narrow drift support the idea patterns of balloon flights of ten days of "theater" or surveillance balloons. importantly.

other subjects for study fall under the heading of operational requirements selection. balloon power system: 0 sensor requirements and and concept of operations. C31 architecture. of a payload high altitude configuration. sources. area to be balloon looked location at to would try a time series get more of be to a analysis balloon Another analysis of "continuous" Many perspective rather than the discrete approach used here.narrow over similar to short periods of time. 0 * 0 0 0 0 45 0 00000 0 0 0 0 0 0 . be should study this a distribution with completed locations recorded at intervals less than ten days.

D. SCIM 20 2UDS1. SCIM 190 1RPIS.THET1.10).5).U. SCIM 26 *PDQ(17.SDHL.ODQ(17.FIO.LOOKIET. 18).DSPC15. SCIM 36 2SPHS.5).DVH.DUH.THET.MONTH.SU)H.URH.5).PHI1.10).PH.10).VLP(25.1O).VRHL.RI.26).ST4(16.MIN.PHI. S MN.SU1L.3).SV1L.7 SOLAR FLUX F10B .TDQ(17.RU1S.T40( 16.19.VQ.TRHL.DLP(25.5).WR(29) SCIM 42 0 46 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .19).RADIUS AT HEIGHT H 5dMN C THETR .STIL.PREVIOUS LONGITUDE SCIM 10 C RP1. it is the only portion enclosed for future reference.DQA. SCIM 23 *VSP(15.LONGITUDE (RADIANS) 5dIM 5 C PHIR .RD1LRTILSPlL.FULL YEAR-1900) SCIM 8 C INR MIN .DATA (IYR .GLON( 16).PREVIOUS RANDOM WINDS SCIM 13 C SU1.T.DTX.VA.USP(15.10) SCIM 32 COMMON /C4/ GLAT(16).IOPP.4).S).FIOS.UIDL1.14.GRAVITY AT POSITION RI .SVIS. SCIM 24 *PG(21.IWSYM.TLP(25.19). SCIM 350 IPRHS.RDlS.G.PRHL.26).10).RUIL.VRHS.5).DRHL.DR(29.UG(21.SO1. IYR.4.NSAME. SCIM 18 .19).SD1S.TSP(15.SDH.NB(2).10).MEAN F10.4.SDHS. SCIM 38 S TN.SVI = PREVIOUS RANDOM WIND SIGMAS SCIM 14 COMMON/IPRTP/ IPRT.NO(2) SCIM 40 CGOMM /CHIC/LA(4.10TEM2. 19.RTlS.PHIR.26).H.ST1 . INPUT TO SCIMOID IS SCIM 30 4 G .TR(29.PREVIOUS LATITUDE THETiR .IUS.S).DVH FROM INPUT AND SCIM 2 C ARRAYS IN COMMON PDTCOM.V AND SHEAR DUH.USHVSH.DQTQ.UD)L(25.19.DG(21. SCIM 22 *PSP(15.PQA.TQA.19) SCIM 26 * PQ.TAQ(17.CP.DRH.18).URHS. IHR.SVHS.UIDL2.5).5).DLIIMY SCIM 34 COU4ON/COMPERfSPH.VAO(17.D4DC 16.SCIM4 33 SP4C16.10)..VDL2 SCIM 21 CUOMM/PDTCOM/1U4.STHS..VDQ(17.19).AP.TG(21.SUHS.26).UA.THETRFt0.10).UGHVGH.VDS2. 18).DTY.TRHS.19).P4D(16.5).RVIS.DXH LZB EPS.DAQ(17.URHL.18).SUH.COMPUTES VALUES P.TRH.IOPQ.SP1S. SCIM 25 *PAO(17.UDO(17. SCIM 31 3VDLc25. 19. SCIM 30 2ULP(25.26).OCK(4.DX5.FCORY. IDA.NLIMIT SCIM 15 C~ONM/IOTEMP/IOTEM1.RV1 .SVH.RPIL.VR(29.3).DUSHDVSH SCIM 41 COMMON /VERT/RU1. but since it is the section only in which modifications were made for the balloon trajectory.RD1.7 FLUX SCIM 6 C AP .19).VDL1. 19.PREVIOUS HEIGHT SCIM 9 C PHI1R .19). SCIM 270 *PR(29.26) SD4C16. SUBROUTINE SCIMOD(NPOP) SCIM 1 C.ST1S.THET1R.UR(29.DVPRE SCIM 39 CcJSION/CNK/PCK(4.UAO(17.NKMOE.RT1 = PREVIOUS RANDOM4 PERTURBATIONS SCIM 11 C SPI.STH.VRH.PREVIOUS RANDOM STANDARD DEVIATIONS (SIGMAS) SCIM 12 C RU1.XMJD. PHI1R.VPRE.PRH. H1.SVHL SCIM 37 COUION/WINCOM/DH.UO.UPRE.UIDS2.DUPRE.SPHL.LATITUDE (RADIANS) C F10 .SDlL. APPENDIX (MODIFIED GRAM-90 SOURCE CODE) 4v The Scientific Model (SCIMOD or SCIM) is only a fraction of GRAM-9o.TIME H1 .SUHL.SOLAR-GEOMAGNETIC A SUB P INDEX SCIM 7 C MN/IDA/IYR . 18).RVIL.NG.VDS(25.DPY.DYSDPX.VDS1.STHL.DRHS.. SCIM 29 1PLP(25. SCIM1 16 SCIM 17 .19).FLAT.IOPR. The entire GRAM- 90 may be obtained from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center.UDS(25.SUIS.SWIWRH..DD.

. PRH-0.0) GO TO 10 C .) GO TO 20 C . NEED TO FAIR DATA 10 IF (H.PHIR*FAC C PRESENT LONGITUDE. / FAC SCIM SCIM SCIN SCIM SCIM SCIN SCIM SCIN SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIN SCIN SCIM SCIN SCIM SCIM SCIM SC1M SCIM SCM SCIM SCIM SCIN SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 SCIN SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM 81 a 82 83 84 85 6 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 5 0 * 0 5 S 47 • • •• • m •• -S S • S- mmmm mu u0gmm .NE. DEG PHI .0. DSN-O. PSHO.0 TOTDAYS .DELTALONGNEULAT. VQaO. URH=O.C DECLARE VARIABLES FOR BALLOON DRIFT TIMESTEP SIMULATION REAL LATSTEPLONGSTEPDELTALAT..57..25. TRHO.GT. TSHN0. VRN-O. SPY ..LE. DEG THETI = THETIR*FAC C BEGINNING OF BALLOON DRIFT SIMULATION DO LOOP C DO LOOP IS FOR THE TOTAL NUMBEROF DAYS AS INITIALIZED 196 DO 197 K .PH..0.0 PASS .LT. DQA-O. 6 P0. DEG THET . DEG PHIl = PHI1R*FAC C PREVIOUS LONGITUDE......(24 * STOPOAYS) C FACTOR FOR RADIANS TO DEGREES FAC . FCORY .. IN 4-0 DATA HEIGHT RANGE IF (H... DUPRE-O..0.I C .NEWLONG INTEGER TINESTOP0AYSTOTDAYSPASS C INITIALIZE BALLOON DRIFT TIMESTEP SIMULATION VARIABLES NEULAT .NORTH COMPONENT CORIOLIS FACTOR TINES DISTANCE FOR C 5 DEGREES OF LATITUDE OYS = 5000. FOLLOUING IS THE PURE JACCHIA HEIGHT RANGE SECTION C ...0) GO TO 6 UPRE-O. DVPRE-O.*RI/FAC DX5 .TNET. MONTHNN C PRESENT LATITUDE. DRHO...STOPDAYS..PHIR + 5. DQ-O.362 C TINE STEP IS 1 HOUR: 24 TIME INCREMENTS PER DAY STOPDAYS . VA-O. UQO0. IN JACCHIA OR MIXED ZONAL MEAN-JACCHIA HEIGHT RANGE 8 IF(H.*FAC) C . IN ZONAL MEAN OR MIXED ZONAL MEAN 40 HEIGHT RANGE GO TO 200 C . TQA=O. PQA-O.120. UA-O.DH.. JACCHIA VALUES AT CURRENT POSITION CALL JACCH(H.O) GO TO 500 C ..30. UNH ..PHIR.THETR*FAC C PREVIOUS LATITUDE.TH) PHIN . VPRE-O. SPU .0 STOPDAYS .. TQ=O.0.DY5*COS(PHIR) FCORY : DY5*SIN(PHIR)/(120.2957795 IWSYNsICHAR(' ) IF(NPOP.1.90... IN MIXED JACCHIA-ZONAL MEAN RANGE.

....TH SCIM 112 C CHANGENOTATION FOR OUTPUT SCIM 113 PGH-PH SCM 114 DGH-DN SCIM 115 TGNSTH SCIM 116 CALL WIND SCIM 117 UN .. FOR DP/DY AND SCIM 99 C DT/DY SCIM 100 CALL JACCH(N..PHIR..UGH SCIM 118 VN . FOLLOWINGIS THE MIXED JACCHIA-ZONAL MEANHEIGHT RANGESECTION SCIM 128 C LOWERHEIGHT INDEX SCIM 129 SCIM 130 20 INA .. 0 0 0 6 SCIM 98 C.VGH SCIM 119 NB • +S5.THETE.PJB.PHE. CURRENTLAT-LON-S DEGREES SCIM 144 C LON. / FAC SCIM 139 THETE a THEY .PHIN.VH*DTY/DYS)/(G + CP*DTZ + UH*DUH+VH*DVH)SCIM 125 C GO TO RANDOMPERTURBATIONS SECTION SCIM 126 GO TO 800 SCIM 127 C.PJN. VERTICAL MEANWIND SCIM 124 WGH. CURRENTLON-LAT+5 DEGREES SCIM 141 C LAY.... . 0I •S 0I 0I.THET.5*(INT(N)/5) C UPPER HEIGHT INDEX SCIM 131 INB a INA + S SCIM 132 C LOWER HEIGHT FOR INTERPOLATION SCIM 133 HA .PNIR..THN) SCIM 101 C.PHIR. JACCHIA VALUES AT LOWERHEIGHT. SCIM 136 C..TB) SCIM 122 DTZ . SCIM 134 C UPPER HEIGHT FOR INTERPOLATION SC1M 135 NB ...TJA SCIM 154 C.DJE.THET...DNE. FOR DP/DY ANDDT/DY SCIM 160 CALL JACCH(HB.|HA*I. SCIM 140 C..THETE..TJN) SCIM 143 C.THE) SCIM 104 C DP/DY FOR GEOSTROPHIC WIND SCIM 105 DPY=PNM-PN SCIM 106 C OP/DX FOR GEOSTROPHIC WIND SCIM 107 DPX-PNE-PH SCIM 108 C DT/DX FOR THERMALWIND SHEAR SCIM 109 SCIM 110 DTX .0 0 S 0 S 0 0 THETE a THEY .DJN.TON ...TJA SCIM 152 C JACCHIA DT/DY AT LOWERHEIGHT SCIM 153 DTYJA = YJN . JACCHIA VALUES AT LOWERHEIGHT.. FOR DP/DX ANDDT/DX SCIM 163 CALL JACCH(HB..*DH*TH) SCIM 121 CALL JACCH(HB.DB.THE . JACCHIA VALUES AT LOWERHEIGHT. JACCHIA VALUESAT UPPER HEIGHT.PHIR * S..(TB . AND OT/OX SCIM 145 CALL JACCH(HA.DNN.. CURRENTLON-LAT÷5 DEGREES SCIM 159 C LAY..PHN..THET.PJE.TH)/5OO0.TJA) SCIM 138 PHIN a PHIR + 5.TJE) SCIM 146 C JACCHIA DP/DY AT LOWER HEIGHT SCIM 147 DPXJA-PJE-PJA SCIM 148 C JACCHIA OP/DY AT LOWERHEIGHT SCIM 149 DPTJA-PJN-PJA SCIM 150 C JACCHIA DT/DX AT LOWERHEIGHT SCIM 151 DTXJA . JACCHIA VALUES AT UPPER HEIGHT...DJE.PJE.PHIN. 0. CURRENTLAT-LON SCIM 155 CALL JACCH(HB.S. SCIM 120 CP a 7. FOR DP/DX.THET..DJA.DJN.-CP*(UN*DTX/DX5 .*PH/(2. / FAC SCIM 157 THETEYTHET-5 SCIM 158 C .. SCIM 123 C.PHIR.THETE.PNIN... FOR OP/OX AND SCIM 102 C DT/DX SCIM 103 CALL JACCHCH.PR.. CURRENTLAT-LON SCIM 137 CALL JACCH(NA.DJB.TJE) SCIM 164 C JACCHIA DP/OX FOR GEOSTROPHIC WINDS SCIM 165 3 0 0 48 • l 0ll 0III! 0II •• II • •• 0.. FOR DP/DY ANDDT/DY SCIM 142 CALL JACCH(HA.IH8*1.JACCHIA VALUES AT CURRENTPOSITION-5 DEGREES LON. JACCHIA VALUES AT CURRENTPOSITIONt5 DEGREES LAT..THET.T SCIM 111 DT/DY FOR THERMALWIND SHEAR C DTY . JACCHIA VALUESAT UPPER HEIGHT...PJN...TJN) SCIM 161 C .THET. CURRENTLAT-LON-5 DEGREES SCIM 162 C LON.PHIR.PHIR.S.TJB) SCIM 156 PHIN ..TJE .PJA.

IACCHIADT/DX FOR THERM4ALWINO SHEAR 07XJB ...DTXGA.OPY. + DSH) TGA .TJN -TJB SCIM 172 C.PGA(1. & OPXJB.DPXB. + TSH) SC1IM187 UGAKIJGA+SPU VGA-SPY SCIM 188 UGB-UGB+SPU SCIM 189 VGB-SPV SCIM 190 DTXGA -DTXSB -TMA 5dM 191 DTXGB .. ZONAL M4EANAT LOWER HEIGHT.DPXJB -NPE .DTYA.PG..DJA.OTXA. SCIM 232 C. ..PSH + OPYSB) SCIM 197 DPYGB -PGBODPYSB +DPYGB*(1.P1.DPYJB.DTXJA.TSH.USP.HB.DTYGB.D2. ZONAL MEAN AT UPPER HEIGHT SCIM 233 C X.DPYGA.DPXSB * PMA SCIM 195 DPXGB .. DTXSB.DTYGB.-CP*CUN*DTX/DXS + VHODTY/OTS)/(G +CP*DTZ 4UH*DUH + VH*DVH)SCIM 224 C GO TO RANDOM PERTURBATIONS SECTION SCIM 225 GO TO a00 SCIM 226 C .IHGB*.VSP. .UGB.H) C . 5dIM 222 C.. AIRED RESULTSAT LOWER HEIGHT SCIM 177 IHSB .T2.TGB*1.. SCIM 212 SCIM 213 DVSHI=(VGB-VGA)/5000..OTYGA.TI.PGB.HB. # TSH) SCIM 183 5dIM 184 PGB .TSH +DTYSB) SCIN 193 OTYGS TGB*DTYSB + DTYGB(1..INA.OT/DT SCIM 208 SCIM 209 CALL INTERW(OTXA...DTYSB.DSN.PHI.DGA.UG) C .PHI. +PSH) DGB .*OHTH) ?* 5dIM 221 DTZ (T2 .H) SCIM 207 C..USH.JACCHIA SCIM 173 SCIM 174 CALL GTERP(INAPNI .DTYGA. * PSH + PYSS) 5dIM 198 CALL FAIR(PGA.OPXSB *PGO SCIM 196 DPYGA -PGAODPYSB .D1..P2.DPiDY SCIM 206 CALL INTERWCDPXA.HEIGHT INTERPOLATION ON FAIRED DP/DX.DPXGA.NA.. A OPXSB.OTYJA..NJE -TJ9 SCIM 170 C JACCHIA OT/DY FOR THERMAL WINO SHEAR 5dMN 171 DTYJB .PGBC1.. 90 SCam178 SCIM 179 CALL PDTUV(PSP.THET.T2.OG..DTYB.DPXA.HEIGHT INTERPOLATION ON FAIRED DT/OX..DPX. . HEIGHT INTERPOLATION OF WIND SCIM 210 CALL INTERW(UGA. ZONALMEANAT UPPER HEIGHT.DTTSB) SCIM 194 DPXGA .DG.. TO BE FAIRED WITH JACCHIA SCIM 175 CALL GTERPCIHB.DTXGB..D2.DGAC1.VGB.SPV) SCIM 180 SCIN 181 PGA . +OSH) SCIM 185 SCIN 186 TGI .NBPHOHTHNH) SCIM 205 C.DTY.TSH .DTYB) SCIM 203 C.VERTICAL MEAN WINO SCIM 223 WGH . THE FOLLOWING SECTION IS FOR ZONAL MEAN OR MIXED ZONAL MEAN 40 5dMN 227 C HEIGHTS SCIM 228 C LIPPERHEIGHT INDEXC SCIM 229 200 INGB *IT()5 5 SCIM 230 C UIPPERHEIGHT scim 231 HGII.IHSB. SCIM 199 & DPXJA.DPYGA(1.DPYB.HA..DTXSB -TGB SCIN 192 DTYGA -TGA*DTYSB + DTYGA(1.DPYB.DGB*C1.UG) SCIM 176 C.DTYJB..PJB SCIM 166 SCIM 167 JACCHIA OP/DY FOR CEOSTOPHIC WINDS DPYJB .PGA.DPTGB.TJA. TO BE FAIRED WITH .1 SCIA 204 CALL INTER2(P1.VSH.DTX.DGATGA.HB.DTXJB.0. +PSH) SCIM 182 DGA ..DPYGB.TGA*(1.SPU.OPYA.DTYA) SCIM 200 C .DSP..DPYJA..PJA.DGB. * 49 Ad .DPYA.UGB..TSP.PG.TMA..P2.T1.HEIGHT INTERPOLATION ON FAIREO P.TGB.UGA.lHB.TJ8..VGAHA.TG. SCIM 214 C CHANGE OF VARIABLES FOR OUTPUT PGHzPN SCIM 215 DGH=DN SCIM 216 TGH=TH SCIM 217 CALL WINO SCIM 218 UH-UGH SCIM 219 VNsVGN 5dIM 220 CP 7PH/(2.D1..DGB.PJBDJB. AIRED RESULTS AT UPPER HEIGHT 5dIM 201 SCIM 202 CALL FAIR(PGB.PNH -NB SCIM 168 SC1IN169 C .DTXB..PSH.HA.DTXB..DPYGA.TG..OPXB.DPXDB.T1)/5000.OPYSB.TGB.H) SCIM 211 DUSH=(UGB-UGA)/5000.

.OGA.UGA.TGA.TNET.VGH..PG.DPYS8. + TO) * TGH SCIM SCIN CALL WINO C GEOSTROPHIC WIND PLUS 090 WINO PERTURBATIONS SCIM UH-UGH+UO SCIM VH=VGH. HEIGHT INTERPOLATION OF ZONAL MEAN OP/DY AND OT/bY CALL INTERW(DPYGA.VGH*OTY/OYS)/(G.HGA.TG. SCIM C.OTYSB.OO1*(VSB*VSA)/(HSB-HSA) 5dIM C FOR MIXED ZONAL MEAN .VSB) SCIM C LOWR HEIGHT INDEX IHGA .H) SCIM C QUASI-BIENNIAL VALUES SCIM CALL OBOGEN SCIM C.H) SCIM C.50(INT(H)/5) + 5 SCIM IF (INSO ..H) SCIM USH-UGH*SPU SCIM VSH-SPV SCIM OUSH=C(UGB-UGA)/CHGB-HCA).USB.UGH.. +TSH +OTYS) SCIM C TOTAL OP/OX SCIM OPE = OPXS * PGH SCIM SCIM C TOTAL.O..OTYGB..OSA.PGH.HSA. +TSH) SCIM PGH -PGN * 01... SCIM S DPXSA*DPYSA. WITH MSFC JEFFRIES SCIM C UGK.TGB.DGB.DPXSB. + PSI4) SCIM SCIM 0GM 0GM * 0.LT.(USB-USA)/(HSB-HSA))*.PGA.5 SCIM C LOWER HEIGHT INDEX SCIM HGA.TSBHSB.40 SECTION SCIM GO To 300 IF(H.DSHTSH.0O1 5dIM DVSHN..TSAHSA.+TSB) .OSB.VERTICAL MEAN WINO SCIM C THIS CHANGE WAS MADE 5 AUG 92 DUE TO PHONE CALL.DG.PSB.STATIONARY PERTURBATIONS AT LOWER HEIGHT SCIM CALL POTUV(PSP.PGB.IHGA1l. OP/DY OPY -PGH*DPYS + OPYG(1..H) SCIM C.DTYS.DTYSA...-CP*(UGHMOTX/OX54VGHODTY/0Y5)/(G4CPODTZ+UGKODUH+VGKODVH) SCIM C GO TO RANDOM PERTURBATIONS SECTION SCIM 500 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241.SCIM CALL. 9O)INSB .UGB.OSP.H) SCIM C..DTYGA.INSU1I. DTXSA..(TGB*(1.HGB.H) SCIM CALL INTERWCUSA.TGA*(1.HGB. TSB..TSA. + DO) SCIM TN z (1..OSB..TGH.HEIGHT INTERPOLATION OF STATIONARY PERTURBATION DT/OX AND OT/DY SCIM CALL INTERUCDTXSA..UG) INSS .VSB. .DSP.UNPERTURBED VALUES PLUS 090 PERTURBATIONS SCIM PH .CPODTZ*VGH*DUH+VGH*DVH) WGK.90 SCIM SCIM C UPPER STATIONARY PERTURBATION HEIGHT SCIM 230 HSB .PG. 1 + KS) C TOTAL.*DGH*TGK) SCIM DTZ .IHSA1l....USP.HSB.30.O) C .5 SCIM SCIM C LOWR STATIONARY PERTURBATION HEIGHT 250 NSA . GTERPCIHGB.DGB.PSH.PHI. +P5K +OPYS) SCIM SCIM C.DTYSB.-CP'CUGKODTX/0X5.8 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 2620 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 2700 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 298 299 6 .TSP.TGB.HSB.O. SCIM C. SCIM C. + PO) *PGH OK .UG) INSA=IMS6 .HEIGHT INTERPOLATION OF STATIONARY PERTURBATION OP/OX AND OP/DY SCIM CALL INTERW(OPXSA.SPV..USP.OTXS.VSP.OGA.DTYGA.SPU.(0.*PGH/(2. DTXSB. ZONAL MEAN VALUES HEIGHT IHTERPOLATIONS SCIM SCIM CALL INTER2(PGA.TSP..PSA.STATIONARY PERTURBATIONS AT UPPER HEIGHT SCIM CALL PDTUV(PSP.VSA. SCIM SCIM C..THETIHSA.TGHODTYS +OTYG*(1.0GH. ZONAL MEAN AT LOWER HEIGHT SCIM SCIM CALL GTERP(IHGA.OPXSOPYS.UGS. 07/OX SCIM SCIM DTX = OTXS * TGN SCIM C TOTAL 07/DY OTY ..HSA.GT.UNPERTURBED (MONTHLY MEAN) VALUES FOR OUTPUT TGH -TGH * 01. IHSB.HGA.DPYGA.DG.PHI.OPYGB.DPYGB.+TSA))/5000.IHOB .VSPPHI.PGB.OTYSA.TGA..PNr.DSA. SCIM S.H) SCIM C.0GM * (1.HGB.DPXSB.OPYSBHSS.USB.PSB..DTXSB. .OTYGB.VO SCIM CP =7.OPYG.NSA. 242 243 2" 245 2460 247 21..USAVSA) SCIM CALL IHTERW(UGA.STATIONARY PERTURBATION HEIGHT INTERPOLATION SCIM CALL INTERZ(PSA. .DPYSA. 5dIM SCIM % DTYG...TG.HGA.

P4D(4*(IND-1)÷JNDoIKND) DCK(IND.T CALL INTER2(P4A.DGB*(I.IKND) 310 CONTINUE C.ODGH*TGH) DTZ (TB .O) 2003 FORMATC DENSITY') 2005 FORMAT(' TEMPERATURE') 2004 FORMAT(1X.1.IHCK * KMD IF (IKNM.T 350 PH-PGH(1 .H) C.DTXB.T4D.DTX.25.25.. + TSB) DPXB ..DPXB. * DSB) TB TGB*(1.+DQ) TH=TGH*(1..DPY.12.1.GE.015) GO TO 505 C IF -15 METER LE H LT 0 o H IS SET TO 0 H ...O.3 IKND .DPYB.GT.0.D4D(4*(IND-1)+JND.PB.16F8..*PGH/(2.DPY4.PGH. HEIGHT INTERPOLATION BETWEEN 4D AT 25 ANDZONAL MEANAT UPPER C HEIGHT DP/DX ANDDP/DY CALL INTERW(DPX4.. 1)CALL GEM4D INCK ...3) 2007 FORMAT(' PRESSURE') 2002 FORMAT(1X.D4A. GENERATE GRID OF 40 PROFILES IF PREVIOUS HEIGHT GE 30 SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM i 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 3444 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 S 0 0 51 • • • •• • •S ..+TQ) CALL WINO C ADD0Q0 WIND PERTURBATIONS UNHUGH÷UQ VH-VGH+VQ CP 7. THE FOLLOWING IS THE MIXED ZONALMEAN-40 SECTION C. GENERATE GRID OF 40 PROFILES IF PREVIOUS HEIGHT GE 30 300 IF (LOOK .4 DO 310 J.TGH.*PQ) DHNOGH*(1.H) C.EO..H) IF (IOPQ.-CP*(UGH*DTX/DXSVGH*DTY/DYS)/(G+CP*DTZ+UGH*DUH*VGH*DVH) C GO TO RANDOM PERTURBATIONS SECTION 2000 FORMAT(' 4-D DATA AFTER ADJUSTMENTS'/' LATITUDE'/3X.HGB.TGB*DTYSB + DTYGB*(1.DTYB..T D ..12.DTX4.T4A)/(1000.)) C..JND. P4D.2) GO TO 800 500 IF (H.DGH.D.04D.PGB*(1..16F8.LT.-O....PGB*DPYSB + DPYGB*(I...DPY4.THET.16F8.4 PCK(IMD.0 RETURN C..HSB. LAT-LON INTERPOLATION OF 4D DATA AT 25 KM PHI.DTY.25.DTY4) C..HSB.12...KND) .16F8. VERTICAL MEANWIND WGH..JNO.TB.e(HGB .D. + PSB) C P.KMD) .T4A.2) GO TO 350 C QUASI BIENNIAL PERTURBATIONS CALL QBOGEN C ADOQBO PERTURBATIONS TO P.DPX..DB. + PS8 + DPYS8) DTXB .24 DO 310 KNO..25.. CALL INTER4( S DPX4.P4A.DTY4..04AT4A.D. ZONALMEANPLJS STATIONARY PERTURBATIONS Pi .26)IKND-26 00 310 INO x 1.GO TO 800 C.PGB*DPXSB DPYB .EQ.0) GO TO 510 IF (H. + TSB + DTYS8) C.TGB*DTXSS DTYB .. GO TO 510 C NOMORECOMPUTATIONS TO BE MADEIF HEIGHT LT -5 M 505 MNORE .16F8..5) 2006 FORMAT(1X. HEIGHT INTERPOLATION BETWEEN 4D AT 25 ANDZONAL MEANAT UPPER C HEIGHT DT/DX ANDDT/DY CALL INTERU(DTXK.25..O ..3) 2001 FORMAT(' LONGITUDE'/3X. HEIGHT INTERPOLATION BETWEEN 40 AT 25 ANDZONAL MEANAT UPPER C HEIGHT P..

OTY48) IF(IHA.DATA HAPB 08 TI.LE.NADTX48. P4D. COMPUTES HEIGHT OF SURFACE 575 MA .T 600 CALL INTERZ(PA.THET.DTY4A) IF(IWSYM.0) GO TO 570 TZ .1.0..)GO TO 520 GO TO 540 520 1145.EQ.HEIGHT INTERPOLATION OF P.LE.EQ.IKNO) 511 CONTINUE C UPPER HEIGHT INDEX 11N1.TA.TA.LOOP TO FIND LOWJEST MB3.TNET.(TA-TB) / ALOG(TA/TB) GO TO 575 570 TZ-TA C .PGI4.TB.O.JND.3 1Kb * INCK + KNO IF ( KOLT.L GEN4D SCIM 3680 ERHIGHT INDEX C LO N(H) IHMALOWER HEIGHT INDEX NA = 1A1l. C.T4D.LE.DA. .DB.570.EQ.H) C CHANGE OF NOTATION FOR OUTPUT PH .DPY4A.DPX4A.PB*DB*TB. VALID HEIGHT C.D4D.DPY4B.0.04)GO TO 600 PH=O.IICNO) OCK(1NDJND. TH-0..D. GO TO 800 C.INA + 1 IF(IHB.560 560 IF(TA*TB.... 515 CALL INTER4( S DPX4BDPY4B.1434.ICHAR('*')) IWSX=IWSYM IF(IHA.ICHARC"9') IUSX=IWSYM IF(TA-TB)560.IHB. TGH...DTX4A..DPY4A.0.H.1.N IF(PBUPA.DPY4A. 550 CALL INTER4( PHI.EIGHT INTERPOLATION OF OP/DX AND OP/DY CALL INTERU(DPX4A.EQO.T4D..)) IGO TO 550 GO TO 600 HEIGHT C.DTY4A.GT.DTX4A.LT.040.HO * 0.1IKN I IM 26 IF (IKND.AND..EQ.H) C.0.DA.4 PCK(IND.DTY4A) IF(IWSYM.DTY. P4D.25 C UPPER HEIGHT 513 HI .LAT-LON INTERPOLATION OF 40 VALUES AT UPPER HEIGHT PHI.DGH.HEIGHT INTERPOLATION OF 01/OX AND 01/DY CALL INTERWCOTX4A..PGH 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 7 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 3960 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412S 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420S 0 SCIM 421 SCIM 422 SCIM 423 SCIM 424 SC1IM 425 SCIM 426 SCIM 427 SCIM 428 SCIM 429 SCIM 430 SCIM 431 SCIM 432 SCIM 433 SCIM 434 SCIM 435 52 0 S .HB.DPX4S. DH-0..LE.THET.0.GT.HB.KN0)=040(4*(IND01)+JND.1149..OR.IHA..TGN. DGH..DTX.AND.PB*DB*TB.114A-I DO 511 KHD-1.10.ER P4D. INS8.AND.Y4D.LE.LAT-LON INTERPOLATION OF 40 VALUES AT LOW. S PA.HB..O.IHA.4 DO 511 JUD4. SCIN SC:M SCI SIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCM SCIM SCIN SCIM SKIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIN SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM 5dIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM IUWSX*IWSYM INCK.0)CALL INTER4( PHI.IHB1I.0.510 C IF (LOOK .HA .0.DTX4B.DTY4B.25) GO TO 513 INA-24 MA-24..KNO)-P4D(4*(IND*1)+JND.0)GO TO 576 HA .D40.DPX4A.PB.DPX. PGH-0.(PA*DA*TA.DPY. GO TO 515 540 IF(INA..O.28705*TZ*AL0G(PB/PA)/G 576 IF(H*GT. S PA.26)IKNO Do 511 1140. M)AL..HA.GT.H) C.

LE.NG) IPRT.2001) (GLON(I)..2004)IH.-VLPH)*ABS(SVH)) SUH .NG) WRITE(6.2000) CGLAT(I)..EQ.26 1H1 -1 WRITE(6.DLPH) CALL INTR25(TLP.SWH) SUHL-SQRT(ULPH*ABS(SUH)) SUHS-SORTC(1.V UH-UGH+UQ VH-VGH+VQ C.2004)IH.SQRT(ABS(SUH)) SVH .Jx1.GT. INTERPOLATES RANDOM WIND MAGNITUDES TO HEIGHT H. 30.2004)IH.UL 2. INTERPOLATE PR*DR.DLPH) CALL INTR25(ULP.PH I.H.CSD4(J.2005) DO 506 1 *1..D. LATITUDE PHI CALL INTRUV(UR..T SIGMAS AT HEIGHT H.TLPH.*(HB .SVH) CALL INTR25(PLP.NG) 507 WRITE(6.25. VERTICAL MEAN WINO WGH .) GO TO 800 CALL WIND C CHANGE Of NOTATION FOROUTPUT UIN=GHSC:M VH*VGH CP 7. VDL .ULPH..)GOTO 805 C.PHI.LT.2002)1H.CSP4(JI)..(ST4(Jii).*PGHI(2.IPRT+1 512 CONTINUE IF(NPOP.DGH(1 . 53 SCIM:436 SCM 437 SCIM 438 SCIM 439 SCIM 440 441 SCI 442 SCIM 443 SCIM 444 SCIM 445 SCIM 446 SCIM 447 SCIM 448 SCIM 449 SCIM 450 SCIM 451 SCIM 452 SCIM 453 SCIM 454 SCIM 455 SCIM 4560 SCIM 457 SCIM 458 SCIM 459 SCIM 460 SCIM 461 SCIM 462 SCIM 463 SCIM 464 SCIM 465 SCIM 466 SCIM 467 SCIM 468 SCIM 469 SCIM 470 SCIM 471 SCIM 4720 SCIM 473 SC11M474 SCIM 475 SCIM 476 SCIM 477 SCIM1478 SCIM 479 SCIM 480S SCIM 481 SCIM 482 SCIM 483 SCIM 484 SCIM 485 SCIM 486 5dIM 487 SCIM 488 SCIM 489 SCIM 490 SCIM 491 SCIM 492 SCIM 493 SCIM 494 SCIM 495 SCIM 496 SCIM 497 SCIM 498 SCIM 499 SCIM 500 SCIM 501 SCIM 502 SCIM 503 K 0 .V052) CALL INTRW(WR.NG) 506 WRITEC6.VLPH) CALL INTR25 (LJL.2003) DO 507 I1 1.H.0)GOTO 512 WRITE(6.2006)IN.GE.. IF H LE 20 USE 40 DATA RANDOM P.10.H.TQ) C ADDS QBO WIND PERTURBATIONS TO U.TR ARRAYS TO GET P.(D4D(J..DLP.T 650 PH-PGH*(1.0)GO TO 840 IF (IOPR..PHI. THE FOLLOWING IS THE RANDOM PERTURBATIONS SECTION C.VDL 2) CALL INTR25(UDS.2004)IH.NG) hdRITEC6.i).T SIGM4AS IF(H.J=1.VDS...D.UDS2.VHODVN) C 011-0OIF NLT10 IF (H.DLP.D0O) TH-TGH*(l¶.I).J=1.(T40(J.=.20..)GOTO 512 IF(IPRT.O...H.J=1.PDII.NG) WRITE(6.PHI.O.DN : DGN TN T6H IF(PHOHNTN.EQ.I). NO RANDOM PERTURBATIONS IF IOPR GT I 800 CONTINUE IF(H .-CP*(UGH'DTX/DXS +VGH*DTY/DYS)/(GCP*OTZ+UH*DUN.PHI.) GO TO 800 IF (IOPQ.GE.SORT(ABS(SVH)) IFCH.-ULPN)*ABS(SUH)) SVHL-SORT(VLPH*ABS(SVH)) SVHS-SORTC(1.+PQ) DH.VLP.1=1.H.H..NE.1-l.PHIPLPH.2007) DO 504 10.*DGN*TGM) DTZ *(TB TA)/(1000.Jzl.LE.SUH....26 IN .NG) WRITEC6.VR.I 1 WRITE(6..H.1) GO TO 830 C.)GOTO 810 C.G 504 CONTINUE WRITE(6.HA)) C.26 IN I WRITE(6.2) GO To 650 C COMPUTES QUASI BIENNIAL PERTURBATIONS CALL QBOGEW C ADDS 0BO PERTURBATIONS TO P.

.TNET.C LATITUDE PHI CALL RTERP(25.. ANDVERTICAL SCALE VL C. LAT-LON INTERPOLATION ON P.T SIGMAS AT UPPER HEIGHT SP4.SDH..O.. + PRH) DH .SD4.H SPHL=SQRT(PLPHeABS(SPH)) SPHSZSORT((I.STH) GO TO 820 C.TB. SETS PREVIOUS WIND PERTURBATION MAGNITUDES TO CURRENT VALUES.TRH.PNI.H) SPH * FH*SPHG + (1.FH)*SOH STH * FH*STHG + (1.PA.. .. .TH*(1.DH*(1..DR..)GOTO 820 FH : 1. CALL INTERZ(PA.O.WH UHUH:URH VH-VHNVRH WHNWGH. .LE.. + TRH) C ADDS RANDOM WINDS TO UH....DTXDTY) C..ST4. .TA..SPN..LE.. SETS PREVIOUS WIND PERTURBATION VALUES TO CURRENT VALUES.0.SORT(ABS(SPH)) SON z SQRT(ABS(SDH)) STH .STHG) GO TO 810 805 CONTINUE CALL RTERP(H... CALL INTER4( $ DPX.PR.D.DPY.SPHG..DK.DA.20. $ DPX. • • •• • 0.2*(25.DH.OR.. SETS PREVIOUS MAGNITUDES TO CURRENT VALUES...DB.. SETS PREVIOUS RANDOM PERTURBATION IN P.. . 0 .ST4.FH)*SPH SON* FH*SDHG + (1.. C FOR NEXT CYCLE SU1S:SUHS SCIM SCN SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCM SCIM SCIM SCIN SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIN SCIM SCIN SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIN SCIN SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIN SCIM SCIM SCIN SCIN SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIN SCIM SCIN 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 562 563 564 565 566 567 568 569 570 571 0 0 0 54 • S.LE..SDH. HORIZONTAL SCALE NL. ..TR.SQRT(ABS(STH)) C. ....D.SDHG.TR. HEIGHT DISPLACEMENT BETWEEN PREVIOUS ANDCURRENT POSITION 820 DZ . PNI.DRH...-TLPH)*ABS(STH)) SPH . .. FOR NEXT CYCLE SPISSPHS S0lS SONS ST1S=STHS SP1L=SPHL SD1L=SDHL STIL=STHL C. LAT-LON INTERPOLATION ON P.O.D. .-PLPH)*ABS(SPH)) SOHL-SORT(DLPH*ABS(SDH)) SDHS=SQRT((I.T SIGMAS AT LOWERHEIGHT SP4..PB.TH.IHB..TH PH a PH*(1.PR.TB.IHA.PB.DATA.O.. •S . HEIGHT INTERPOLATION OF SIGMAS HBSPN. COMPUTES HORIZONTAL DISPLACEMENT DX BETWEEN PREVIOUS ANDCURRENT C POSITION.. ..LE..URN..-DLPH)*ABS(SDH)) STHL:SORT(TLPN*ABS(STH)) STHSSSORT((I..S04.VRH ANDWRH CALL PERTRB C ADDS RANDOM PERTURBATIONS TO PH. FOR NEXT CYCLE 825 RP1S= PRHS RD1S= DRHS RT1S= TRHS RPIL-PRHL RD1L=ORNL RT1L=TRHL C.DR. * DRH) TH .T TO CURRENT C PERTURBATIONS..O... 810 CALL INTER4( PHI...O)GO TO 825 IF(H.OR.FH)*STH SCIM SCIN SCIM SCIN SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIN SCIM SCIN SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM 504 505 506 507 508 509 510 511 512 513 514 515 516 517 518 519 I 0 0 SCIM 520 C.Nl . C FOR NEXT CYCLE RU1S=URNS RV1S=VRHS RU1L-URHL RV1L-VRHL RW1=WRH C.THET.DTX.PHI. IF(PH.VH.WRN C.DB.DTY) C. . COMPUTES PERTURBATION VALUES PRH.DPY.STHoH) NA.

50H100. SPN...0.*PRHL DRHL-IO00.100.O) SCIM SCIM scim SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM 5dMN SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM 55 608 609 610 611 612 613 614 615 616 617 618 619 620 621 622 623 624 625 626 627 628 629 630 631 632 633 634 635 636 637 638 639 * . DSNODSN10O..100.DS) IF ((PSD9S*TS).SV1 S=SVIIS SUIL SUNI4 SV1L.PS. GO TO 880 870 PGNP-100.*TRNS PRHL-100.PS)/PS ONP-100. IPCNPWP.*CPH.100.TS.ACDGH-OS)/DS TGHP-10OOA(TGN-TS)/TS PNP-100..SETS PREVIOUS LATITUDE TO CURRENT LATITUDE.H C.0) GO TO 920 UPRExUGN VPRE.) RETURN CALL STDATM(H. DHP-O. OR T LEQ 0 IF(PHNDN-TH.SPN*100.*PRMS ORKS=100.*PRN C 920 SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM 5dM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM 5dIM SCIM scim SC1M SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM scim SCIM SCIM SCIM SCIM scim SCIM 572 573 574 575 576 577 578 579 580 581 582 583 584 585 586 587 588 589 590 591 592 593 594 595 596 597 598 599 600 601 602 603 604 605 606 DRH-100A*DRH SCIM 607 TRN-100A*TRH PRHS=100...D.) GO TO 870 PGKP=o.A(PGH-PS)/PS DGHP-1OO. STN-STH*100.'TG C CONVERTS RANDOMl PD.GT.. RETURN IF (IOPP. DVPRE4OVH/ 1000.. PHP-0.*STHL CONVERTS WINOSHEARTO N/S/KM DUN zDUN * 1000..'Do TO-100. TGNP.'SONL STNL z 100.SETS PREVIOUS LONGITUDE TO CURRENT LONGITUDE.. SDH-.VGN DUPRE-0UH/IOOO. FORNEXT CYCLE PNI 1R-PIR C.T TO PERCENT PRH-1OO. FOR NEXT CYCLE THETIR-THETR C SETS NMOE TO COM4PUTE MOREDATAONdNEXT CYCLE 840 NMORE1 -ISCIM C. TQA-TQA*100. DGNP-O. TNP-O.LE.DRHL TRHL. TSNzTSN*100. 0.O.'SPHS SONS.'SDNS STNS .*SPHL SONLz 100. FOR NEXT CYCLE 830 H41.NO MORE DATA IF P.NE.*(OHDS)/DS TNPxlOO.0.DVH * 1000.. DVH . PQA-POA*100. 'TRHL SPNS -100.SETS PREVIOUS HEIGHT TO CURRENT HEIGHT.T TO PERCENT 880 PQ-Oo. DQA=OOA'100.*DRHS TRNS=100.*(TN-TS)/TS C CONVERTS 080 P.10PQ 0Q-100. PSH-PSN*100.SVNL SWId-SUN C.*STHS SPHL z100..NE.

1.PRHS.LONG.1. E-W WIND.DELTALONG IF (NEWLONG .2(F7.2F5.0.900) H.DSH.F6.TRHL.ONG + 360 ELSE CONTINUE ENDI F THETIR .UHCHAR(IWSYM). SCIM C 1 VGH.DELTALAT.i.SVHL SCIM SCIM 951 FORMKAT(FS.IET.SVH SCIM C900 FORMAT(1X.SPHL.951)H.4) DELTALONG .2F5. C SCIM C 2PRHDRH. C 56 640 64111 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649 650 6510 652 653 654 655 656 657 658 .1.A1.TGHP.1.VH *60*60 *1/1000 DELTALAT =LATSTEP I111 111.TGH.UA.2F5.THP.'LAT.7F7. 180) THEN NEWLONG -NEWLONG-360 ELSE CONTINUE END IF IF (NEWLONG I.l. SCIM C I 15.TSH.2F5.PQ.-180) THEN NEW1. SCIM C S OVH.2F5.NEWLONG C9092 FORMAT(1X.F6.O. a SUHL.LONGSTEP / (CCDS(PHI/FAC)) DELTALONG -MOD(DELTAL0NG.sUH.2F5.3F5.2.1./) MUL.VRHS.ONG m NEWI.F6.VRHL.2F5. N-S WIND C PRINT*.D.3F5. 90) THEN NEWLAT -90-CNEWLAT .2. LONG.DQ.SDHLSTNL.uRH.GT.2F5.' QBo'/102X.A1.TRH.TNET.0).VH.FI0.STHL.1.DGHP.9092) LATSTEP.PRNLDRHL.SVHL.0.U14.DOA. 23F5./.F6./ SCIM C 7102X.' RANT'.LIM * 60 * 60 * 1 /1000 LATSTEP .F5.PHP./ SCIM C 6102X./ SCIM C 5102X.WH.PHI.STHS.WGH.0.UGH.2.1.' SI6L'.VA.THET* FAC THETR . S'DELTALAT(DEG) DELTALONG(DEG) NEWLAT(DEG) NEWLONG(DEG)'./) C NEXT THREE LINES PRINT OUT LAT.THET.1.2F5.' RANL'. E-W WIND.VRH.0.2(2E9.CHAR(IWSYM).F5.IX.LONGSTEP.0.1 '.EQ.TO.PSH.DHP.14X.1' ).' SP'/I02X.180 ELSE CONTINUE END IF PHIIR -PHI * FAC PHIR -NEWLAT *FAC PHI .T. N-S WIND' C WRITEC6.SDHL.TH.DGHTGHUGH.D) C APPLY WINOVECTORS TO LAT/LONG (COMPUTE NEWLAT/LONG) IF (ABS(NEWLAT).' RANS'/102X. SCIM C S SPU.3F5.2.360.VH C9D91 FORMAT(1X.THET.3F5. SCIM S VOPQA.3.PHI.STH.23X.9091) PHI.SWH.1.3F5.DELTALONG.0.1.3F5.2) SCIM C WRITE(6.' SIGS'/ SCIM C 4102X. -90) THEN NEWLAT -ABS(NEWLAT) .SVHS.SUHL.2.SDN.0.l.0.90) ELSE CONTINUE END IF IF (NEWLAT .UOQ.DH.0. 60 MIN/HR LONGSTEP .DUH.1.'LATSTEP(KN) LONGSTEP(KM)' .3F5.' SIGT'.4F6.PGH. C SNEWLAT.2F7.SPHSSDHS.LT.NEWLAT NEWLONG -THET .NEWLONG * FAC THET NEWLONG C WRfITE(6.2.TRHS*URHS.lX.6X).CHAR(IWSYM).F6.' ').TQA.' '. C SCIM ISUNS.' MAG'/SCIM C SCIM C 3 1O2X.0.3F5.WGH.SPV.PGHP.SPH.DRHS.URHL.VGH.EI0.DGHP.2/1X.2F6.SCIM WRITE(IOPP. SCIM C & 2(F8.2F5.2(F8.I.IIX.GT.TIPLY WINO SPEED AND WIND DIRECTION BY TIME STEP TO C C CREATE WIND VECTORS FOR THE TIME STEP IN KILOMETERS C GIVEN A TIME STEP OF 1 HOUR WITH 60 SEC/MIN.PH. 90) THEN NEWLAT *PHI -DELTALAT ELSE NEWLAT PHI DELTALAT ENDI F IF (NEWLAT .

0 ./) IF (DAYCOUNT .9093) NEWLAT C9093 FORMAT(1X.2) ELSE CONTINUE ENDIF C LOCATION AFTER 360 DAYS OF 24 TIME INCREMENTS PER DAY IF (TOTDAYS ./.8X.NEU/LONG 9096 FORMAT(1X.0.EQ. 23) THEN DAYCOUNT .7X.O.F6.FS.0) THEN C PASS .EQ.NEULONG 9097 FORMAT(1X.2.0. 12X. 30) THEN C PRINT¶.F6.13.GT.FS. 240) THEN WRITE(7.DELTALONG.-42.LT.AND.9094) LATSTEP.O.2) ELSE CONTINUE ENDIF C LOCATION AFTER 30 DAYS OF 24 TIME INCREMENTS PER DAY IF (TOTDAYS .LT.-46.0.F7. -50. . C SNEWLAT.9X.2. C S'DELTALAT(DEG) DELTALONG(DEG) NEWLAT(DEG) NEWLONG(DEG)'.2) ELSE CONTINUE ENDI F TOTDAYS . C SlX.NEWLONG 9098 FORMAT(1X.12./) C C CHECKLONGITUDE PICKET. 8640) THEN URITE(8.FS.0 .9099) MONTH C 9099 FORMAT(1X.F6.'LATSTEP(KN) LONGSTEP(KN)'.0.NEWLONG C9094 FORMAT(IX. RECORD LATITUDE IF LONGITUDE IS MET CURRENT WITE STATEMENT WRITES LATITUDE TO A FILE IF (NEWLONG.O.F6.12X.DELTALAT.8X. -46./) ELSE CONTINUE ENDIF C WRITE(6.TIME * 1 IF (TIME .'INSIDE DAYCOUNT LOOP' MN .O C C 9095 * * • 57 • i • • nS I5I S •• I I • III5 i i50l •0 l I I5 .7X.F6. .9096) NEWLAT.F5.GT.DAYCOUNT+ 1 C PRINT-.TOTDAYS + I C IF (NEWLONG .0 C WRITE(6.A C S1X.O) THEN PASS * 1 C WRITE(9.EQ. 720) THEN WRITE(9.2X.9097) NEWLAT.AND.'MONTH IS CHANGED' DAYCOUNT z 0 IF (MONTH .2.LONGSTEP.2) ELSE CONTINUE ENDIF C INCREMENT TIME AND CHECK STOPPING RULE TIME . PASS.'INSIDE TIME LOOP' TIME .F7.2XF7.7X.IX./) ELSE CONTINUE ENDIF ELSE CONTINUE ENDI F C LOCATION AFTER 10 DAYS OF 24 HOURS PER DAY TIME INCREMENTS IF (TOTDAYS .7XFS.F6.EQ.O.O.F6.9X. NEWLONG.9098) NEWLAT.O.F6.9095) IYR FORMAT(IX.0 ..O.O. NEWLONG .GT.FS.F6.MM+ 1 MONTH = MN C PRINT*.F6.GT. 12) THEN IYR = IYR + I 4NN= MONTH MN WRITE(6.2X.AND.GT.

. ..0 . . .0 ELSE CONTINUE ENOIF 197 CONTINUE C 197 PRINT*. -38. •S .'END OF DO LOOP' RETURN -42. . .LT.GT. . . •• . NEWLONG.C C C C C ELSEIF (NEWLONG .. 58 • . . • .AND.0) THEN 0 SCIM 659 SCIM 660 END • • L . . . PASS .

. David A. David. "Theater Missile Defense. RAND's Role in the Observation Systems and Evolution of Balloon and Satellite Related U. ed. Richard A. The RAND Corporation.L. 1988.. David G.." briefing presented at the Naval Postgraduate School. Glines. 2d Israel.1992. 2 August 1991. Winzen International.S.. Franklin Holton. Texas. Stuart F. Austin.." Science. Inc. and Leovy. Inc. The Upper Atmosphere Meteorology and Craig. The Orion Book of Balloons. and Bay. Monterey. James F. Dollfus. California." Aviation Week & Space Technology... May 1992. Huntsville. 14 April 1993.LIST OF REFERENCES Andrews. Coleman Research Corporation. Academic Press. Middle Atmosphere Dynamics.. LTC Watts. Inc. C.. 59 0 0 . CHR/91-2750." by Robert Hawkins. James R. 16 November 1992.. William Morrow and Company. "Expendable Air Vehicles/High Altitude Balloon Technology. Conway B. Brown.. WII-9947-01-TR-01. 1965. From Shield To Storm.. William R. Lighter-Than-Air Flight. Applications. Alabama . "Earthwinds Waits on the Weather. Davies. Space Technology. Inc. Dunnigan. Academic Press. The Orion Press. Rand and others. 1979.. Academic Press. and Harris. Popular 0 "Balloon Technology Offers High-Altitude Brown. An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology. Inc. USAF. 1961.. Charles. 1965." by J. "Long Duration Balloon Technology. Holton... 1987. Physics. 0 * Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Final Technical Report. San Antonio. 6 December 1991. James R. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Final Technical Report. Merton E. Inc.V..

May 1975. Architecture for Long Duration Free Floating Flight for Military Applications. Master's Thesis. by Alvin Morris. Air Force Institute of Technology. Technology In War.. Proposed Design of a Tactical Reconnaissance Satellite System.D. Severance. 1986. Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. Macksey. 6 60 • • • •• • •0 0 .0 "A System Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Report. 1991. "Long Duration Balloons." paper presented at the World Space Congress and International Astronautical Federation Committee on Space Research." by Larry Epley. Texas. Jeffries. J. Burke. Scientific Ballooning Handbook. Virginia. National Center For Atmospheric Research Technical Note 1A 99. Huntsville. Cirrus Aerospace Corporation. 31 August 1990.R. "Long Duration Balloon Technology Development Program. Alabama. between W. 15 April 1993. and the author. National Telephone conversation Aeronautical and Space Administration Marshall Space Flight Center. Prentice Hall Press. Ohio. James L. S Winzen International White Paper.." San Antonio. Rand. Fall 1992. Kenneth. December 1990.

Code MR/WU Department of Meteorology Naval Postgraduate School Monterey. Reitinger Box 744 Gunnison. CA 93943-5000 1 5. Naval Reserach Laboratory Attn: Mr Peter Wilhelm 4555 Overlook Avenue SW Washington. Code 052 Naval Postgraduate School Monterey CA 93943-5002 2 3. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Attn: Mr. William R. CO 81230 8. Defense Technical Information Center Cameron Station Alexandria VA 22304-6145 2.T.O X. 20318-6000 1 61 * .C. MAJ Kurt C. Copies 2 1. INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST 0 No. 20375-5320 1 4. Code OA/KE Department of Operations Analysis Naval Postgraduate School Monterey. Director for Command. Jeffries Mail Code ES44 MSFC. Control and Communications Systems. Williams. 20375-5320 1 9. Joint Staff Washington. AL 35812 1 7. Professor William Kemple.O.C. U. D.C. 1 P. CA 93943-5000 1 6. D. Naval Reserach Laboratory Attn: Professor Michael Melich Code 8000 Building 69 Room 100 4555 Overlook Avenue SW Washington. D. Library. Professor R.

D.C. LTC Dale E. C3 Academic Group. 20301-7100 12. X Tietz D. CA 93943-5000 11. Hurmondeloney BMDO/DTD Pentagon Washington. MAJ Thurman T.C. 20301-7100 1 13.4 0 6 10.C. Code CC Naval Postgraduate School Monterey. D. 20301-7100 1 • • • •• 62 • •0 . BMDO/DTD Pentagon Washington. MAJ Michael Fisher BMDO/DTD Pentagon Washington.