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HSL PCG “CURRENCY DAILY”

June 08, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

72% 0.13% 0.5 27009.50 PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] USDINR: Bargain Buying Expected with Limited Upside  Extending the gains for the fourth straight day.7 6273. smart rally in domestic equity market also supported sentiment.201 -0.6% and 5. banks had raised $25 billion through FCNR deposits and another $9 billion through foreign currency borrowings and swapped the same with RBI.455 107.1 26777.33% -0.30% from its previous close of 66.097 0. dollar by banks and exporters.5 16620. investors got support with the assurance of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that it would provide dollar and rupee liquidity if needed to prevent any disruption in the markets on the redemption of foreign currency non-resident (FCNR) deposits. In Cr) 07-Jun-16 06-Jun-16 Jun 16 EQUITY 65.14% 0.5 8201.8 6284.5 2936.1 17938. -0.136 1. it acknowledged that volatility may emerge as some counterparties—in this case banks—may not be able to easily deliver on the dollars that they owe to RBI.776 93.83 -2608.9 10287.46% -0. The rupee opened at 66. as compared with its Monday’s close of 7. Close Close SGX NIFTY NIFTY SENSEX HANG-SENG NIKKEI SHANGHAI S&P INDEX DOW JONES NASDAQ FTSE CAC DAX 8285.10% -0.72. USDINR one month forward has been trading near yesterday’s close of 67.10% GLOBAL INDICES Prev. Also.370 66. up 0. On hourly time frame.91 per US dollar and touched a high of 66.01% -0.473%.78—a level last seen on 13 May. Spot USDINR has been oversold indicating short covering near long term support of 200 SDMA placed at 66. .7 8289.4 17920. Indian rupee ended at over three-week high against dollar amid sustained selling of U.  On overseas bourses. -0.80 2043.001 0.4 10121.65% (Provisional Rs. Further.10% 0.1 INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY Segment Chg. The GDP and Inflation forecast for FY17 also retained unchanged at 7.483%.940 66.5 4475.067 % Chg.72.08% -0.731 1. most of which was linked to borrowed funds.87% -0. that will be due between September and November.5 21328. however the inching up of food and commodity prices forced the RBI to keep the inflation under scanner.903 Chg.01 DEBT 50. It reiterated its accommodative stance but reinforced the need of supportive financial as well as the macro developments for any scope of the next policy actions.  The domestic currency closed at 66. worries remain on inflation front  The Reserve Bank of India took a pause and kept the key policy rates unchanged in its second bi-monthly credit review as uncertainties continued from the elevated price levels and gradual transmission process by the banks.30% -0.0 2109.0% respectively.978 93.970 Close USDINR DXY INDX EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY DG USDINR 66.3 4961. India’s 10-year bond yield closed at 7.40% -0. Close 66.0 8266.4 4423.137 1. a level last seen on 17 May.2 16675.S. It is this $25 billion chunk. -0.0 2112.7 21230.06 indicating muted start at domestic exchange.430 -0.000 -0. RBI takes a pause.80% 0.66 1611. -5 65 232 -98 -55 -21 3 18 -7 11 52 167 % Chg.3 4968.828 1.  In September 2013 when the rupee was under pressure.18% 1. While RBI said that it is prepared.19% 1.VIEW POINT MAJOR CURRENCY Prev.2 2915.454 106.05% 0.98. Meanwhile.46 -754.

5% and 1.  Pair closed below 20 DMA for the second consecutive session. Technically.  Near term bias remains bearish till it closes above 67. and the dollar is likely to remain bearish until then. while support for the same seen at 66.00 to 68. rate hike is now out of the question and the focus is whether the Fed provides any hints of a July hike.70 (200 DMA).  RSI on the daily chart has exited the overbought zone with negative divergence.Dollar Index wallows around four week low  A June U. The Fed concludes a two-day policy meeting on June 15. indicating weakness in Dollar against rupee for short term. USDINR June Future broken double bottom support of 67.86.70-66.  Positional resistance for the pair is seen at 67.90  Exporters: Exporters can wait for their short term receivables and hedge in the range of 68.S. PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] .73  Yesterday. Eurostat said that gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0. indicators until the Fed's policy meeting next week.S. Euro zone growth revised back to 12-month high of 0. There are no major U. In a second revision of its figures.15.6% in the first quarter of 2016.6% from the previous quarter and by 1. Hedgers Perspective:  Importers: Importers are advised to hedge offshore liabilities in the range of 66. the highest rate for 12 months.7% YoY as compared to its initial to its initial ―preliminary flash‖ figures of 0. indicating weakness. the buck is having support around 93 on weekly closing basis and previous week high of 95.5% on May 5.86.6% and 1.6% on April 29 and subsequent downward cut in its flash estimate to 0.96 would act as resistance going forward.6 %  The euro zone economy grew by 0.02 and closed at psychological level of 67. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK USDINR June Future Daily Chart 200 SDMA Support Seen at 66. supported by household spending and private sector investment.

45 62. Open* Trend Bias for Today Range S2 S1 R1 R2 USDINR 67.22 66. High 1-Mth.78 -0.99 59.23 -- -- -- -- EURINR JUNE FUT.78 97.23 68.95 60.26 76.25 1628499 186921 1328948 162773 SPOT EURINR 75.31 67.05 GBPINR 97.15 67.91 75.54 77.18 JPYINR 61.72 97.51 96.TECHNICAL LEVELS JUNE Month Last Exp.97 73. 67.00 Bearish 67.34 97.58 Spot Wkly High Wkly Low 1-Mth. Low 52 Wk High 52 Wk Low 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA USDINR 67.39 0.76 -0.86 -- -- -- -- GBPINR JUNE FUT.98 76.12 98.21 95.08 -0.25 Short Covering 76.11 67.45 74.60 74.80 99.00 67.06 61.76 41476 -5574 122537 32207 SPOT JPYINR 62.07 62.00 -0.96 96.15 67.91 61.89 67.28 93.12 66.32 76.18 61.01 74.14 62.35 61.13 98.46 67.85 61.72 0.08 76. 76.60 105.74 75.75-62.19 66.28 98.94 67.95 -0.54 EURINR 75.59 -- -- -- -- JPYINR JUNE FUT.54 77.30 62.10 97.79 63.14 62.84 96. Volume Chg. 97.79 66.07 60. SPOT USDINR 66.99 76.59 34807 -5005 29570 -14799 Currency PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] .76 66.91 66.54 97. Open Interest Chg.10-96.43 62.25 97.07 57.43 CURRENCY MOVEMENT Open High Low Close Chg.48 75.99 51.04 75.24 76.14 -0.50-76.36 62.74 75.40 EURINR 76.35 61.86 GBPINR 98.31 96.37 98.90 61.89 97.60 Bullish 62.84 JPYINR 62.50 96.49 68.72 66.20 -- -- -- -- USDINR JUNE FUT.20-66.47 75.07 76.75 67.36 62.17 67.23 55896 1486 42308 -19121 SPOT GBPINR 96. 62.94 66.60 Bearish 98.75 66.10 97.99 62.30 75.

00% 6.50% 0. DATA RELEASED Date Time Country 06/08/2016 14:00 UK Industrial Production YoY Event 06/08/2016 14:00 UK Mfg.3175 7.50 548 2063 5.00 1.0.90% 1.10% 06/07/2016 11:00 IN RBI Cash Reserve Ratio 07-Jun 4.00% NIESR GDP Estimate May -.00% 4.00 68.50% 1.72 35950 4078 0.875 6.50% 0.50% 06/07/2016 14:30 EC GDP SA YoY 1Q F 1.00% .96 1.08 68.345 67.025 66.50% 6.00 0. Production YoY 06/08/2016 16:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 06/08/2016 19:30 UK 06/08/2016 19:30 US Date Time Country Period Survey Actual Prior Apr -0.85 PUT ECO.3 118559 65420 1150084 TOTAL OI OI PUT CALL RATIO : 0.2 48.28 68.30% 06/07/2016 13:00 UK Halifax House Prices MoM May 0.25 36196 21916 0.09 7.6725 5.50% 1.00 0.07 0.08 0.50% 0.80% JOLTS Job Openings Apr 06/07/2016 14:30 EC GDP SA QoQ 1Q F 0.25 0.50 0.00% 4.14 5.33 62881 2506 0.76 3853 -446 -7961 155028 5.50% 0.42 111070 14563 - 3 4.50 67.2375 5.59 9.635 66. 89 10 0 15 16 6 10 2 19 15 29 2 14 29 45 0 9 0 66.0775 5.175 67.30% 0.70% PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] 5675 5757 Jun -0.00 LTP LTP IV Volume OI Chg.71 0.90% 1.1175 67.50% Apr Period Survey Prior Event -1.53 0.04 0.75 0.88 261997 109900 34598 5.37 0.60% -1.25 67.50% -1.20% 06/07/2016 11:00 IN RBI Repurchase Rate 07-Jun 6.93 0.355 5.00 PUT Strike Price 1535 2382 100 50 IV 92027 226133 111 150 161 181 250 200 Volume 393 287 300 284 272 318 283 350 152 Thousands USDINR OI DISTRIBUTION 1351622 0.40% 06/08/2016 5:20 JN GDP Annualized SA QoQ 1Q F 1.035 11156 -2189 6. Optimism 48. 1035 2.60% -0.845 66.39 108 -2 4159 31396 13525 -40612 145014 66.30% -0.-4.72 0.5075 6.7 06/08/2016 5:20 JN GDP SA QoQ 1Q F 0.4875 66.79 102 1 6.58 0.23 19671 -9997 -1038 6.75 5. DATA TODAY ECO.00 67.50 1.50 CALL 68.USDINR JUNE MONTH OPTION DISTRIBUTION CALL OI Chg.045 5.50% 06/07/2016 18:00 US Nonfarm Productivity 1Q F 06/07/2016 19:30 US IBD/TIPP Eco.40% -0.0525 68.50 69.25 18951 4.90% 06/07/2016 11:00 IN RBI Reverse Repo Rate 07-Jun 6.25 1.18 -2379 238237 5.4 48.50% 6.00% 03-Jun -.00% 6.

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