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HSL PCG “Currency Insight”-Weekly

13 June, 2016

however March month number was revised upward to 0.4518 -0.5719 96.7136 -0. sugar and cotton seed oil were the major contributors to the negative growth while electricity and Jewellery added on positive side.9% Prev.9017 -0.4467 -0. its first contraction in three months following the poor performance of manufacturing sector.0116 -1. Close Chg.8% from 3 June to 66.4% -0. Close Chg. rubber insulated.2415 -0.4819 74.406 million in the year-ago period.1251 1.4890 0. government data showed on Friday.200 million in the year-ago period. prices from the central bank’s trading system show. % Chg.7% JPYINR 62.3% from provisional figure of 0.8%.0290 0.3% JPYINR 62.1186 -0.4770 0. Cable.7600 67. rupee appreciated 0.3298 -0. USDINR 66. India’s April IIP falls to 3 months low at -0.0261 -1.1%. the 60% of India’s remittances come from Gulf countries.0030 Currency % Chg.4000 61. 7. It was expected to come at +0.5%  NRI Remittances slips 87% in April on lower inflows from Gulf countries  RBI Reference Rate Last Prev. At the fag end of the week.9700 106.2600 -0.7% respectively. 94.8200 0.1 %. After.8% USDJPY 106.4714 74.5420 0.7800 1.6000 61. Bond Yield Instrument 759GS2026 Last 7. Manufacturing sector that contributes around 76% to total IIP dropped to -3. according to the data.9768 -0. Close Chg.1% in April from -1.0% of last month. Remittances by non-resident Indians (NRIs) fell 87% to $302 million in April this year. It was $2.7% GBPINR 96.4257 1.5000 EURINR 75. the Reserve Bank of India kept benchmark borrowing costs unchanged at a five-year low on Tuesday. GOI 10 Yr.9560 0.MARKET WRAP UP WEEKLY MOVEMENT Rupee Registered Biggest Weekly Gains since March Currency  Currency (Spot) DXY Index Last Prev.4400 0. As per the data.76 weaker by 0.7% USDINR 66. that’s the biggest weekly jump since the period ended 18 March.9944 0.8300 0. Capital goods and consumer non-durable good segments also remained under pressure as both reported negative growth for the sixth consecutive month at -25% and -9.8% in April.6% EURUSD 1.1367 -0.2632 96.5700 0.3% DGCX USDINR 66.0% The prospects of faster economic growth and expectation for better monsoon rains boosted the rupee value to mark biggest weekly gains since March.5710 94.5300 0. That’s the highest since 30 March. which suffered the most due to decline in crude oil prices. On weekly basis.7% EURINR 75.49%.4920 0.6% GBPINR 96. % Chg. PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] .8%  Industrial output unexpectedly shrank by 0. with the yield on notes due January 2026 at 7. the currency gave away some of its gain to close at 66. which saw dip cut in inflows to $203 million in April. The deposits stood at $2.5259 0. India’s sovereign bonds were little changed in week the gone by.3362 -0.76 a dollar.0% GBPUSD 1.7948 67.7824 67. The biggest fall was registered in the Non-Resident (External) Rupee Account (NR(E)RA) category.

dollar index ended the week with gains of 0. The latest U.S.K. 40. Central banks in the UK. Pound Tumbles for the second week as opinion polls signaling “Leave”  The depreciating for a second week as opinion polls had until Friday signaled the June 23 vote is too close to call.33 (0. Japan and Indonesia are among those making monetary policy decisions this week but all eyes are glued on the Federal Reserve.5% 41.6225 WKLY % CHG.S.OI (PVO) CURRENCY PAIR NSE INRUSD Future Jun16 NSE EURINR Future Jun16 NSE GBPINR Future Jun16 NSE JPYINR Future Jun16 CLOSE 66.5250 62. Week Ahead Week Ahead: Fed-BOE-BOJ Rates Meeting.6825 96. the main factors will be the movement of monsoon. 24. The U.4255 down by 1.61) 0. the dollar index is having resistance of falling trend line around 96 while the sustainable closing below 93 will escalate toward 90. 45%remain.61 OPEN INTEREST 1764581 45838 50397 43208 PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] WKLY OI % CHG. economy after weak May employment numbers and tepid first-quarter growth.Overseas Market Dollar decoupled ahead of Fed decision  The dollar ended the week sharply higher against the other major currencies on Friday despite diminished expectations for a summer rate hike by the Federal Reserve. A poll published late Friday showed the ‘Leave’ campaign taking a 10 percentage-point lead.9% 45.2% -18. sending sterling plunging to its lowest since April against the dollar. (0.9% 22. The pound has had a volatile week before closing at 1.8%.56 to 94.1% 17. The U.VOLUME . % CHG. WEEKLY PRICE .89) 0.558.7% . currency rose for the fifth time in the past six weeks against the common currency.5% VOLUME 1323003 55636 80213 35353 WKLY VOL. poll conducted for Orb/Independent showed 55% leave.9375 75. release of wholesale and retail inflation will be in focus.7% 11. Technically.  On the domestic front.S. Brexit  Federal Reserve policy makers probably will hold off on raising interest rates in the coming week as they assess the U.

View: Looking at the technical evidences discussed above and strength of the Dollar Index. Stochastic on the daily chart has exited from the oversold zone.70 Resistance 67. SL in Longs should be kept at 66. Pair reversed the trend from bearish to bullish. took support there and reversed the trend. In the Month of April 2016.46 20 Days SMA 67.59 USDINR June Fut. indicating bullish reversal Resistance for the pair are placed at 67. 67. Currently 200 DMA is placed at 66.79.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK USDINR JUNE FUTURE Spot USDINR Currency Current Trend Short Term Consolidation Trend Reversal 67.38 and 67.77 for June Futures.26.72 PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] DAILY CHART .CMP : 66.13 200 Days SMA 66.94      Last week. we believe that rupee would depreciate against dollar.46 Support 66. USDINR pair reached its 200 DMA.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK EURINR JUNE FUTURE Spot EURINR Currency Current Trend Short Term Bearish Trend Reversal 76. Below 75. bearish head and shoulder pattern on the daily chart would confirm.68     Pair has formed lower top at 76. but for confirmation of a bearish reversal lower bottom has to be there.03. pair could go up to 77.35 resistance View: Traders can short the pair only below 75.23 20 Days EMA 75.75 in the coming week.95 EURINR June Fut.36.75.03 for the target of 72. Existing longs should be protected with a SL of 75. Pair could test the downside targets of 72.03 in June Futures would confirm the breakdown in the pair.53 Resistance 76. Close below 75.03.44 200 Days EMA 73.36. which would be formed below 75. Above 76.03 PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] DAILY CHART . CMP 75.15 Support 74.

View: Bias for the pair remain bearish.70. Immediate resistance for the pair are seen at 98.95 in Jun Futures.60 Resistance 98.52       Pair has already witnessed a fall of almost 5% from the recent high of 99.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK GBPINR JUNE FUTURE Spot GBPINR Currency Current Trend Short Term Bearish Trend Reversal 98. PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] DAILY CHART . Higher top and higher bottom is still intact on the daily charts. Pair has violate the support of 50 DMA.11 GBPINR June Fut. Any level below 95.95 would violate the bullish pattern on the short term chart.25. However existing long should be protected with the SL of 95.46.11 Support 95.CMP : 96.11 20 Days EMA 97.56 200 Days EMA 98. Supports for the pair are seen at 95.25 to 96.95 and 93.31 and 99.

09. Oscillators are holding their bullish stance on daily and weekly charts.62 200 Days EMA 57.09 and 64. Stoploss in long should be kept at 61.50 20 Days EMA 61. Immediate support for the pair is seen at 61 View: Traders should remain long and rather can initiate longs with the upside targets of 63.40 Support 61.62       Higher tops and higher bottoms are intact on the daily chart.57 JPYINR June Fut. 50 DMA has been acting as a strong support. PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] .26.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Spot JPYINR Currency JPYINR JUNE FUTURE DAILY CHART Short Term Current Trend Bullish Trend Reversal 61. Pair is hovering around its 52 week high of 63. indicating bullishness on all time frames.CMP : 62. Currently 50 DMA is placed at 61.80 Resistance 63. Pair is trading above all important moving averages.

EURUSD DOLLAR INDEX DXY: Daily Chart Higher Low Formed GBPUSD EURUSD Daily Chart USDJPY USDJPY: Daily Chart GBPUSD: Daily Chart PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] .

00 66.8 215.4 150 280.1 9.  In the week gone by.50 68.9 50 131.50 66.77.3 200 69.USDINR JUNE MONTH OPTION DISTRIBUTION OI in Thousands USDINR OPTION OPEN INTEREST DISTRIBUTION 400 350 300 250 65. we had seen addition of 212 thousand contracts in 66.00 PUT OI Data Interpretation:  Highest OI has been seen on 67.0 0 3.50 67. PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] .1 75.86 from previous week’s 0.  Option distribution suggesting range of 67.7 11.3 181.00 CALL OI 67.50 in near term.50 strike call while traders cut position by 213 thousand contract in 67.50 strike with Call and Put OI at 373.5 16.8 373.00 68.3 166.8 thousands.  The put call ratio of Open Interest climbed to 0.4 223.50 put.8 100 224.50 10.7 264.9 261.3 and 261.50 to 66. respectively.

The near month USDINR volume jumped by 41% from previous week. PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] .50 to 66.50.9375 with OI addition of 24%.61% to close at 66.  We also noticed higher volume during the week.  The broad range for the pair in coming days remain 67.USDINR NEAR MONTH FUTURE ROLLING CHART(PRICE AND OPEN INTEREST) Data Interpretation:  Last week.  The fall in price with addition of volume and OI suggesting bearishness in the pair. USDINR May future fell 0.

05 337.99 339.INDIA FOREX RESERVE Indian Foreign Exchange Reserves (US$ Billions) Wkly Chg.50 1.43 2.03 361.99 339.02 Gold 0.91 361.04 20.43 2.28 20.12 Special Drawing Rights 0. 3-Jun 27-May 20-May 13-May 6-May 29-Apr Total Reserves 3.45 2.19 360.04 20.49 1.99 363.32 20.46 360.50 Position in IMF 0.49 1.50 1.04 20.47 FOREIGN FUND FLOW VS USDINR Foreign Fund Buying Dragged USDINR Lower PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] .00 1.12 Foreign Currency Assets 2.22 336.42 2.49 1.94 337.42 2.04 20.27 363.23 336.00 2.

98 66.17 0.32) (0.28 11.3 17938.6 2898.8 10026.92) (1.61) 1.79 3.33 OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE 8180.6 16108.03) (0.88 3.1 17938.8 2109.123 1.08 (1.7 16319.12) 0.61 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS (% CHG) (% CHG) 0.0 4880.419 106.85) (4.289 1.883 3.14) (1.62) (0.87) (0.90) 4.50 17.50 7.01) (1.12 2.86) (2.25 MAJOR COMMODITIES COMMODITY GOLD SILVER CRUDE OIL MAJOR INDICES INDEX Nifty 50 S&P BSE SENSEX INDEX DOW JONES INDUS.09 3.MAJOR CURRENCIES CURRENCY PAIR DOLLAR INDEX SPOT Euro Spot British Pound Spot Japanese Yen Spot Indian Rupee Spot Brazilian Real Spot Australian Dollar Spot South Korean Won Spot S.33 (0.5 16335.33 4.24) (2.8 20555.85 1278.77) 0.813 3.06) (0.739 1174 15.54 8.54) (0.84 (1.281 0.72) (0.52) (2.15 0.760 3.05 16.422 0.6 4915.59 17.737 1174 15.654 1.611 1.01 (1.9 6231.59 1.6 4917.739 1172 15.31) (4.33 1 DAY (% CHG) 0.447 0.5 2897.23) (0.14) 0.427 106.4 20518.19) 0.93 1272.39) (0.84) (1.8 4306.75 3.97) (2.41) (0.42 3.8 10024.08 66. African Rand Spot Canadian Dollar Spot Swiss Franc Spot OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE 94.1 4894.426 106.34 48.74) 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS (% CHG) (% CHG) 0.2 4301.48) 0.24 1.4 2886.5 6115.3 1 DAY (% CHG) 0.80 (0.235 1.9 4390.04 1.21 1274.10 (0.750 1.89) (0.41 17.16 48.8 2109.76 2.1 26635.965 OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE 1275.00 (0.02 5 DAY (% CHG) 0.37 48.46 1.1 16101.5 17812.51) 5 DAY (% CHG) 2.14 (2.48) (0.66) (2.963 94.66 6.40 (1.4 20664.97) (1.79) 2.15) 0.75) 1.08 3.15) (0.85 66.8 8162.67) (0.10) (0.13 48.60) (2.126 1.9 26620.126 1.19) 1.26 (0.87 1.416 106.280 0.65 3.6 6097.687 1.9 4390.57) 0.1 6231.37) (0.3 8265.34 1.99) 5 DAY (% CHG) (0.420 0.3 8170.51) (2.23 (1.248 1.75 3.12 66.36 0.736 1172 15.05 1.412 0.2 2898.124 1.6 26972.11 1.58) (2.275 0.37 7.966 94.00) (1.56 17.273 0.1 9819.3 26742.3 2090.965 94.29) (1.738 3.176 1.3 2096.13 0.04 (1.1 20647. AVG S&P 500 INDEX NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX FTSE 100 INDEX CAC 40 INDEX DAX INDEX NIKKEI 225 HANG SENG INDEX SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] .04 1 DAY (% CHG) (0.7 9834.8 17865.79 2.08 (0.92) 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS (% CHG) (% CHG) 4.79 4.76 1.12 (0.

20% 1.30% 2.20% 75.10% -6.02 0.30% -9.50% 375b -$124.07b -$4844.80% 0.10% 21.30% 2.10% 0.40% 0.20% 1.30% 1.50% 1.20% 1.ECONOMIC EVENTS NEXT WEEK Date Time 06/13/2016 17:30 06/10/2016 06/15 06/10/2016 06/30 06/13/2016 06/17 06/13/2016 06/17 06/13/2016 06/17 06/14/2016 10:00 06/14/2016 12:00 06/14/2016 14:00 06/14/2016 14:00 06/14/2016 14:30 06/14/2016 14:30 06/14/2016 18:00 06/15/2016 14:00 06/15/2016 14:00 06/15/2016 14:30 06/15/2016 16:30 06/15/2016 18:00 06/15/2016 18:45 06/15/2016 18:45 06/15/2016 18:45 06/15/2016 23:30 06/16/2016 01:30 06/16/2016 14:30 06/16/2016 14:30 06/16/2016 16:30 06/16/2016 16:30 06/16/2016 18:00 06/16/2016 18:00 06/16/2016 18:00 Country Event IN CH IN IN IN IN JN IN UK UK EC EC US UK UK EC US US US US US US US EC EC UK UK US US US CPI YoY Leading Index BoP Current Account Balance Trade Balance Imports YoY Exports YoY Industrial Production YoY Wholesale Prices YoY CPI Core YoY RPI YoY Industrial Production WDA YoY Employment YoY Retail Sales Advance MoM Claimant Count Rate ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Trade Balance SA MBA Mortgage Applications Empire Manufacturing Industrial Production MoM Capacity Utilization Manufacturing (SIC) Production FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) Net Long-term TIC Flows CPI YoY CPI Core YoY Bank of England Bank Rate BOE Asset Purchase Target Current Account Balance Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] Period May Apr 1Q May May May Apr F May May May Apr 1Q May May Apr Apr 10-Jun Jun May May May 15-Jun Apr May F May F 16-Jun Jun 1Q 11-Jun 04-Jun Survey Prior 5.34% 1.1b -0.10% 5.50% --0.0m ---0.40% -0.70% 75.3b 270k 2140k 5.50% 1.3b 9.30% 0.3b 264k 2095k .9m -23.50% 0.60% -$1.10% 5.70% -3.20% -0.10% 22.1 -$7.5b --4 -0.50% 375b -$125.39% 99.10% 0.50% $78.10% 0.80% 0.30% 0.80b -$6025.

3 1.2b -0.3b 32.3b 1172k 1130k 7.10% 58 ¥80t -0.10% 59 ----1150k 1145k ---- -1.50% .10% 27.ECONOMIC EVENTS NEXT WEEK Date Time 06/16/2016 18:00 06/16/2016 18:00 06/16/2016 19:30 06/16/2016 06/16/2016 06/17/2016 13:30 06/17/2016 13:30 06/17/2016 18:00 06/17/2016 18:00 06/20/2016 04:31 06/20/2016 05:20 06/20/2016 14:30 Country Event US US US JN JN EC EC US US UK JN EC Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook CPI YoY NAHB Housing Market Index BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base BOJ Policy Rate ECB Current Account SA Current Account NSA Housing Starts Building Permits Rightmove House Prices YoY Trade Balance Construction Output YoY PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] Period Jun May Jun 16-Jun 16-Jun Apr Apr May May Jun May Apr Survey Prior 1.80% ¥823.8 1.

there is an automatic exposure to foreign exchange and. By creating an equal and opposite position in the derivatives market. and at the same time creating a loss for the exporter. The impact of the movement in the USD-INR currencies affects both importers and exporters. to overcome the negative impact of price volatility. The cost of import reduces when the rupee gains strength. hedging is used in every asset class to mitigate losses. a participant who is entering a trade with the intention of protecting the existing position from an unexpected currency move. they eventually affect and impact the movement of currencies. thus benefiting an importer. a hedger who is short on a foreign currency pair will protect his existing position from the upside risk. is said to have created a forex hedge. can protect himself from the downside risk. since the world markets are interlinked. in any asset class. while the exporter will gain when the rupee depreciates against the US dollar. For the corporate in which the business activity is dependent on import and export of commodities. an importer will benefit when the rupee appreciates. In case of hedging in the foreign exchange market.KNOWLEDGE CENTRE How Importers And Exporters Could Use A Forex Hedge To Minimise Losses An important tool in the global financial markets. In order to reduce the risks associated with these uncertain movements in the financial markets. On the other hand. The strategy to create a hedge would depend on the following parameters: (a) risk component (b) risk tolerance and (c) to plan and execute the strategy. a hedge can be created. since a stronger rupee will reduce the export remittances when converted to Indian rupees. both importers and exporters can utilize the derivatives platform of currency futures. hence. PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] . With the help of a forex hedge. is ultimately a strategy to decrease or transfer risk in order to protect one's portfolio or business from uncertainty in prices. the need for hedging is higher. In the current context. whether it is an individual or corporate. Hedging. This can be utilised by anyone. a participant who is long in a foreign currency pair. In other words.

spot market @66. if the importer hedges the currency risk. who is exporting gold jewellery worth US$50. offsetting his business loss.000 . his losses were reduced to Rs 50. At the time of placing the contract in the spot market. i.000 (Rs 69.Rs 66. he wants to lock in the exchange rate for the above transaction. suppose the rupee appreciates to 64.50.KNOWLEDGE CENTRE How Hedging Works For An Importer Suppose an oil importer wants to purchase oil worth $1.  Then importer makes the payment of oil purchase at 69 per dollar Had the importer not hedged his position.00. exposure management is essential. by creating a hedge position on the futures platform. suppose the Indian rupee depreciates to Rs 69 per dollar when the payment is due in June 2016.50. his strategy would be as follows In March 2016. How An Exporter Can Use Hedging A Jeweller. Profit of Rs. Hedging in the currency markets.e. wants protection against a possible appreciation in the Indian rupee in June 2016 (spot Rs 66. when he receives his payment.00. the losses can be reduced.000 due to profits in currency hedge. therefore. When he is required to make the payment in June 2016. one US dollar is worth. say. but by creating a hedge he has made a profit of Rs 75. in this situation. i.50).000. but later appreciated to 64 per USD as foreseen by the exporter at end of June 2016. Had the exporter not hedged his position.000 and places his order on 11 March 2016.000 in March 2016. Hence.50.  Then in June 2016.000 in the futures. Assume that initially the Indian rupee depreciated. However. (50*1000*(66.00. given the premise of a volatile foreign exchange market. with the delivery date being three months away. 200000. In this case. the value of the payment for the importer goes up to Rs 69. He square off 100 lots USD at 69. holds prime importance.50-64)).000).000 rather than Rs 66. he would have suffered a loss of Rs 2. If. assuming that June 2016 contract is trading at 67 on 11th March 2016. Sell 50 lots of June 2016 contract USD with a lot size of 1000. However. 1000 lot size* (69-67) *100.50. he would have suffered a loss of Rs 75.000.e. Here's how the hedging strategy for the importer would work:  Buy 100 lots of USD June 2016 contracts on 11th March 2016.50. Rs 66. PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] .

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