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HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

June 22, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

VIEW POINT

MAJOR CURRENCY
Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR

67.490
93.970
1.127
1.469
104.440
67.719

Prev.
Close
67.319
93.593
1.133
1.473
104.66
67.636

Chg.
0.171
0.377
-0.006
-0.004
-0.220
0.083

% Chg.
0.25%
0.40%
-0.53%
-0.26%
-0.21%
0.12%

GLOBAL INDICES
Prev.
Close

Close

SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX

8215.0
8219.9
26812.8
20653.0
16002.6
2888.0
2088.9
17829.7
4843.8
6226.6
4367.2
10015.5

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY
Segment
EQUITY
DEBT

8220.5
8238.5
26866.9
20668.4
16169.1
2878.6
2083.3
17804.9
4837.2
6204.0
4340.8
9962.0

Chg.
-6
-19
-54
-15
-167
9
6
25
7
23
26
54

% Chg.
-0.07%
-0.23%
-0.20%
-0.07%
-1.03%
0.33%
0.27%
0.14%
0.14%
0.36%
0.61%
0.54%

(Provisional Rs. In Cr)

21-Jun-16

20-Jun-16

Jun 16

-512.18

39.94

3702.31

-2331.84

-664.66

-5165.17

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Rupee Extends Loss For Second Straight Day


Rupee extended losses for the second consecutive day on Tuesday
on continuation of dollar demand from importers and banks. The
home currency started the day on weak note and opened lower at
67.40 per dollar against the previous closing level of 67.31 and
moved in a range of 67.35 and 67.55 before ending at 67.48 per
dollar, marking a loss of 17 paise or 0.25%.
In forward market, premium for dollar continued to rule easy on
sustained receiving from exporters.
The benchmark 6-month
premium for November moved down to 188-190 paise from 189191 paise and far forward May 2017 contract eased further to 382384 from 384-386 paise.
Meanwhile, Indias 10-year bond yield closed at 7.501%, compared
with Mondays close of 7.496%.
The one month forward USDINR last quoted at 67.67 from
yesterdays 67.57 at 5pm IST suggesting higher opening at
domestic bourses. The outlook for USDINR June future remains
mildly bullish amid higher top higher bottom chart formation on
daily scale. The immediate resistance is at 67.8650 and support at
67.05.
Dollar rebound after Fed Yellen Testifies
The dollar gripped gains today after Federal Reserve Chair Janet
Yellen held the line of "gradual increases" in U.S. rates, while
sterling's short-covering rally lost momentum a day ahead of
Britian's EU referendum. Yellen also highlighted the risks of Brexit,
noting it could have "significant economic repercussions".
Speaking to the European Parliamentary committee in Brussels,
Draghi noted that the bloc's uncertainty remained high and
downside risks were challenging due to the continued fragile state
of the global economy and geopolitical developments. "We will
closely monitor the evolution of the outlook for price stability," he
said. "We stand ready to act by using all the instruments available
within our mandate, if necessary, to achieve our objective. In
particular, the ECB is ready for all contingencies following the UK's
EU referendum," he added.

The buck climbed above 105.00 yen for the first time in nearly a week and last stood at 104.79. The euro dipped to $1.1255, peeling
away from a two-week peak of $1.1383 set on Monday. The dollar index was back above 94.000, rebounding from a two-week trough
of 93.425.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR June Future Daily Chart

Breakout above 67.8650

On Tuesday, the pair formed inside bar after previous days sharp up move suggesting supply at higher level.

Strong support for the pair is seen at 66.72, which happened to be the previous bottom while previous top 67.8650 can act as
resistance in near term.

Oscillators are indicating consolidation for the short term.

Near term bias for the pair remains upward with higher side expectation of 67.865.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS
JUNE Month

Last

Exp. Open*

Trend Bias for Today

Range

S2

S1

R1

R2

USDINR

67.58

67.65

Bullish

67.80-67.35

67.27

67.36

67.47

67.66

76.14

76.30

76.41

76.69

EURINR

76.53

76.25

Profit Booking

76.70-76.10

GBPINR

99.48

99.30

Profit Booking

99.90-99.10

97.69

98.25

98.86

100.04

JPYINR

64.54

64.80

Bullish

64.95-64.50

64.00

64.24

64.39

64.77

Spot

Wkly
High

Wkly
Low

1-Mth.
High

1-Mth.
Low

52 Wk
High

52 Wk
Low

5 DMA

20 DMA

50 DMA

100 DMA

200 DMA

USDINR

67.34

66.98

67.76

66.54

68.79

63.31

67.26

67.13

66.86

67.21

66.67

EURINR

75.97

75.09

76.92

74.54

77.49

68.74

75.78

75.47

75.59

75.25

74.09

GBPINR

96.11

94.69

99.80

94.69

105.28

93.34

96.81

97.11

96.70

96.33

97.90

JPYINR

64.91

62.82

64.91

60.30

64.91

51.06

64.24

62.48

61.73

60.71

57.84

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open

High

Low

Close

Chg.

Open
Interest

Chg.

Volume

Chg.

SPOT USDINR

67.40

67.56

67.37

67.49

0.17

--

--

--

--

USDINR JUNE FUT.

67.52

67.64

67.45

67.58

0.18

2396167

613407

2713231

171705

SPOT EURINR

76.43

76.65

76.34

76.42

0.16

--

--

--

--

EURINR JUNE FUT.

76.53

76.73

76.46

76.53

0.11

35293

-6764

50499

-63916

SPOT GBPINR

98.86

99.80

98.77

99.38

0.85

--

--

--

--

GBPINR JUNE FUT.

98.94

99.99

98.81

99.48

0.84

38196

6542

187768

-28135

SPOT JPYINR

64.66

64.85

64.50

64.61

0.10

--

--

--

--

JPYINR JUNE FUT.

64.82

64.85

64.47

64.54

0.12

48877

-3742

42168

1303

Currency

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

USDINR JUNE MONTH OPTION DISTRIBUTION


CALL
OI Chg.

350

107
0

10

23

15

14
2

50

31
33

41

100

39
22

72

150

0
66.00

66.50

67.00

67.50
CALL

68.00

68.50

69.00

Volume

IV

Strike
Price

LTP

PUT
LTP

IV

Volume OI Chg.

-24393

43594

7.18

1.08

66.50

0.0075

6.33 162948

446

3181

6.25

0.8525

66.75

0.0275

6.79

19270

81261

7.03

0.65

67.00

0.07

-3810

32972

7.22

0.4675

67.25

-23563 181057

-17910

38350

204

7.16 144053

-17710

0.1375

7.32

-13562

78402

7.41

0.32

67.50

0.2425

7.58 136150

29540

7.99

0.2225

67.75

0.3775

7.69

24830

15266

8321 117656

8.12

0.14

68.00

0.565

8.41

22334

-3174

1530

12197

8.48

0.09

68.25

0.76

8.66

36

0.94

7.03

1450

-305

1.3675 16.45

32

-10

5283

136

156

200

189

250

232

235
250

300

295
261

339

400

130

Thousands

USDINR OI DISTRIBUTION

-854

38006

8.61

0.0525

68.50

1675

3991

8.96

0.0325

68.75

-2846

12903

9.06

0.0175

69.00

1.43

8.88

TOTAL OI

1513671

5833

1299772

OI PUT CALL RATIO : 0.86

PUT

ECO. DATA TODAY

ECO. DATA RELEASED

Date Time

Country

06/22/2016 16:30

US

MBA Mortgage Appl.

Event

06/22/2016 19:30

EC

Consumer Confidence

06/22/2016 19:30

US

Existing Home Sales

Period

Survey

17-Jun

--

Date Time

Country

Event

-2.40%

06/21/2016 14:00

UK

Public Sector Net Borrow

May

Prior

Period Survey Actual Prior


9.4b

9.1b

6.6b

Jun A

-7

-7

06/21/2016 14:30

EC

ZEW Survey Expectation

Jun

--

20.2

16.8

May

5.55m

5.45m

06/21/2016 15:30

UK

CBI Trends Total Orders

Jun

-10

-2

-8

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com
Disclosure:
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compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]