We propose a new lifetime model, called the odd generalized exponential log logistic distribution (OGELLD).We obtain some of its mathematical properties. Some structural properties of the new distribution are studied. The maximum likelihood method is used for estimating the model parameters and the Fisher’s information matrix is derived. We illustrate the usefulness of the proposed model by applications to real lifetime data.

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We propose a new lifetime model, called the odd generalized exponential log logistic distribution (OGELLD).We obtain some of its mathematical properties. Some structural properties of the new distribution are studied. The maximum likelihood method is used for estimating the model parameters and the Fisher’s information matrix is derived. We illustrate the usefulness of the proposed model by applications to real lifetime data.

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www.ijmsi.org Volume 4 Issue 5 || June. 2016 || PP-21-29

K. Rosaiah1, G.Srinivasa Rao2, D.C.U. Sivakumar3and K. Kalyani3

1

2

Department of Statistics, The University of Dodoma, P.O.Box: 259, Tanzania.

3

UGC BSR Fellows, Department of Statistics, Acharya Nagarjuna University, Guntur - 522 510, India.

Abstract: We propose a new lifetime model, called the odd generalized exponential log logistic distribution

(OGELLD).We obtain some of its mathematical properties. Some structural properties of the new distribution are

studied. The maximum likelihood method is used for estimating the model parameters and the Fishers

information matrix is derived. We illustrate the usefulness of the proposed model by applications to real lifetime

data.

Keywords:Generalised exponential distribution, Log logistic distribution, Maximum likelihood estimation.

2010

Mathematics subject classification: 62E10, 62F10

I. Introduction

Statistical distributions are very useful in describing the real world phenomena.In the analysis of lifetime data, the

log-logistic distribution is widely used in practice and it is an alternative to the log-normal distribution, since it

presents a failure rate function that increases, reaches a peak after some finite period and then declines

gradually.According to Collet (2003), the properties of the log-logistic distribution make it an attractive

alternative to the log-normal and Weibull distributions in the analysis of survival data. This distribution can

exhibit a monotonically decreasing failure rate function for some parameter values. Ahmad et al.(1988), suggested

thatit shares some properties of the log-normal and normal distributions, i.e., if T has a log-logistic distribution,

then Y = log(T) has a logistic distribution. According to Kleiber and Kotz (2003),some applications of the loglogistic distribution are discussed in economy to model the wealth, income.Ashkar and Mahdi (2006) given that,

ithas application in hydrology to model stream flow data. Collet (2003) suggested the log-logistic distribution is

useful for modelling the time following heart transplantation.It is known that exponential have only constant

hazard rate function and generalized exponential distribution can have only monotone increasing or decreasing

hazard rate. There are always urge among the researchers for developing new and more flexible distributions. As a

result, many new distributions have come up and studied. Recently, Tahir et al. (2015) propose a new class of

distributions called the odd generalized exponential (OGE) family and study each of the OGE- Weibull (OGE-W)

distribution, the OGE-Frchet (OGE-Fr)distribution and the OGE-Normal (OGE-N) distribution. These models

areflexible because of the hazard shapes: increasing, decreasing, bathtub and upside subset of down bathtub.

A random variable X is said to have generalized exponential (GE) distribution with parameters , if the

cumulative distribution function (CDF) is given by

F ( x ) 1 e

, x 0 , 0 , 0 . (1)

The odd generalized exponential family suggested by Tahir et al. (2015) is defined as follows. If G ( x ; ) is the

CDF of any distribution and thus the survival function is G ( x ; ) 1 G ( x ; ) , then the OGE-X is defined by

replacing x in CDF of GE in equation (1) by

G ( x ; )

x; , ,

G ( x ; )

1 e

G ( x; )

G ( x; )

, x 0 , 0 , 0 , 0 . (2)

In this paper, we define a new distribution using generalized exponential distribution and log-logistic distribution

and named it as The odd generalized exponential log logistic distribution (OGELLD) from a new family of

distributions proposed by Tahir et al. (2015). The paper is organized as follows. The new distribution is developed

in Section 2 and also we define the CDF, density function, reliability function and hazard functions of the odd

generalized exponentiallog logisticdistribution (OGELLD). A comprehensive account of statistical properties of

the new distribution is providedin Section 3.In Section 4, wediscuss the distribution of the order statistics for

OGELLD. In section 5, maximum likelihood estimation and Fishers information matrix are derived for the

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21 | Page

parameters.A real life data set has been analyzed and compared with other fitted distributionsin Section 6 and also

the concluding remarks are presented in Section 7.

2. The Probability Density and Distribution Function of the OGELLD

In this section, we define new four parameter distribution called odd generalized exponential log-logistic

distribution (OGELLD) with parameters , , , onlineof El-Damceseet al. (2015). The probability density

function(pdf), cumulative distribution function (CDF), reliability functionR(x)and hazard functionh(x)of the new

model OGELLDare respectively defined as:

f

x;

x;

1 x

1 e

1 1 e

1 x

(3)

(5)

1 x

1 1 e

, x 0 , , , , 0 (4)

1 x

1 x

1 x

1 e

1 e

1 x

(6)

The graphs of f(x),F(x) and h(x) are given below for different values of the parameters. The graphs of h(x) show

that the proposed model is an increasing failure rate (IFR) model. Hence this model can be used for reliability

studies.

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22 | Page

3. Statistical properties

In this section, we study some statistical properties of OGELLD, especially quantile, median, mode and moments.

Limit of the Distribution Function:

Since the cdf of OGELLD is

F

x; , , ,

1 x

1 e

W e h a v e , lim F

x 0

, x 0, , , , 0

x; , , ,

and

lim F

x

x; , , ,

The 100q percentile of X O G E L L ( ) distribution is given by

1

xq

ln 1 q

, 0 q 1.

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(7)

23 | Page

Setting q 0 .5 in (7), we obtain the median of X O G E L L ( , , , ) distribution as follows:

1

M e d i a n ln 1

0 .5

(8)

ln f

x;

d ln f

ln ln ln ln 1 ln

x;

x

1

1

M ode

dx

ln 1 ln 1 e

1 x

1 x

(9)

The moments

Moments are necessary and important in any statistical analysis, especially in applications. It can be used to study

the most important features and characteristics of a distribution (e.g., tendency, dispersion, skewness and

kurtosis). In this subsection, we will derive the r th moment of the X O G E L L ( ) distribution as an infinite

series expansion.

Theorem 3.1. If X O G E L L ( ), where ( ) , , , , then the rth moment of X is given

by =

r

r !

i 1

1

i 1

Proof: The rth moment of the random variable X with pdf -f(x) is defined by

i0

x

r

x;

dx

(10)

E

x

r

r =

Since 0 1 e

1 e

1 x

1 x

1 e

1 x

1 x

d x.

(11)

1 fo r x 0 , we have,

i0

i x

1

i

1 e

i

(12)

r =

i0

w h e re

x

z =

1

r x

i 0

i 1 x

dx =

i0

z

i 0

i 1

dz

T h e re fo re ,

r =

i0

Moment generating function (MGF)

t x

t x

t x

t x

M x ( t ) E e E 1 tx

...

... =

2!

3!

r!

r0

r

'

r!

i0 r 0

r!

r /

r

!

1

1

r

i i 1 1

i

(13)

itx

x (t ) E e

k 0 r0

it

r /

r!

(14)

1

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24 | Page

K x t ln M x ( t ) ln

i0

r /

r!

r0

r

!

r

i i 1 1

(15)

Let X 1 , X 2 , ..., X

f

x ; andcumulative

Let X 1: n X

denote the order statistics obtained from this sample. The probability density function of X

f r :n

x,

B r , n r 1

r 1

x ,

x ,

1 F

nr

r :n

... X

2 :n

n :n

is given by

x , (16)

B ., . is the beta function. Since 0 F x , 1 for x>0, we can use the binomial expansion of

1 F

x ,

1 F

nr

given as follows:

x ,

nr

nr

nr

i

1 F

i

x , (17)

i0

f r :n x ,

nr

B r , n r 1

x,

i0

n r

i

1 F

i

x ,

i r 1

(18)

nr

f r :n x ; , , ,

i0

Thus f r :n x ; , , ,

n!

x; , , , r i

i ! r 1 ! n r i !

(19)

V. Estimation and Inference

Let X 1 , X 2 , ..., X n be a random sample of size n,which is drawn from OGELL , where , , , ,

then the likelihood function L of this sample is

n

xi ; , , ,

i 1

i 1

xi

1 xi

1 e

1 xi

n

ln L n

ln

ln ln n ln

ln x i

i 1

i 1

xi

i 1

ln 1 e

1 xi

The MLEs of , , , are the simultaneous solutions of the following equations using numerical iterative

method:

ln L

i 1

xi

i 1

xi e

1 xi

1 xi

1 e

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(20)

25 | Page

ln L

ln L

ln L

xi

ln x i

i 1

ln 1 e

i 1

1 xi

1

1

i 1

n ln

i 1

xi e

1 e

i 1

xi

1 xi

1 xi

xi

ln

(21)

1 xi

xi

1 e

i 1

x

ln i

1 xi

(22)

(23)

The ML equations do not have explicit solutions and they have to be obtained numerically from equation (23), the

MLE of can be obtained as follows.

n

(24)

ln 1 e

i 1

1 xi

n

i 1

xi

xi

i 1

n ln

i 1

ln x i

i 1

i 1

xi e

1 xi

1 xi

1 e

i 1

xi

xi e

1 e

0 (25)

1 xi

1 xi

xi

ln

(26)

1 xi

xi

1 xi

1 e

i 1

x

ln i

(27)

These equations cannot be solved analytically and statistical software can be used to solve the equations

numerically. We can use iterative techniques to obtain the estimate .

5.2 Asymptotic confidence bounds

In this subsection, we derive the asymptotic confidence intervals of the unknown parameters , , a n d .

The simplest large sample approach is to assume that the MLEs , , a n d are approximately multivariate

normal with mean , , ,

I 0 , where I 0

www.ijmsi.org

26 | Page

I0

ln L

ln L

ln L

ln L

ln L

2

ln L

2

ln L

ln L

ln L

ln L

ln L

ln L

ln L

ln L

ln L

ln L

ln L

ln L

ln L

ln L

ln L

i 1

i 1

The

i 1

xi

i 1

Bi

1 xi

1 xi

Ai

i 1

Ai

v a r

cov

, (28)

cov

cov

c o v ,

v a r

c o v ,

Ei

i 1

Bi

i 1

var

i 1

i 1

i 1

i 1

n

Di

Ai

Ci

Bi

i 1

C i Fi

Di

i 1

Di

Di

Ci

x

E i ln i

Bi

i 1

Bi

Bi

Ci

i 1

Ai

x

A i ln i

Bi

i 1

E i Fi

i 1

n

Bi

i 1

xi

ln L

Bi

n

2 1

x

C i ln i

Di

i 1

x

E i ln i

Bi

i 1

x

C i ln i

Di

2

2 xi

1 xi

xi

, C

, Di 1 e

i

1 100%

asymptotic

c o v ,

c o v ,

c o v ,

Bi

Bi

1 xi

, Bi 1 e

Ai

Bi

E i Fi

i 1

var

x

A i ln i

1

xi

ln

i 1

Ai

i 1

n

Bi

Ai

Bi

i 1

i 1

x

, F i ln i

, , a n d are z

i 1

c o v ,

cov

ln L

Fi

v a r

c o v ,

co v ,

xi

xi

ln

x

A i ln i

xi

i 1

Bi

i 1

i 1

xi

x

where A i i e

xi

Ei

Ai

1

xi

xi

i 1

ln L

ln L

ln L

v a r ,

confidence

z

intervals

v a r

of

and z

v a r

th

respectively. Where z

2

is the upper percentile of the standard normal distribution.

2

In this section, we present the application of the proposed OELLD (and their sub-models: ELLog, LeLLog and

LLogetc., distributions considered by Lemonte [2014]) for a real dataset to illustrate its potentiality. The following

real data set corresponds to an uncensoreddata set from Nichols and Padgett (2006) on breaking stress of carbon

fibres (inGba):

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27 | Page

Ei

Bi

3.70, 2.74, 2.73, 2.50, 3.60, 3.11, 3.27, 2.87, 1.47, 3.11, 4.42, 2.41, 3.19,3.22, 1.69, 3.28, 3.09, 1.87, 3.15, 4.90,

3.75, 2.43, 2.95, 2.97, 3.39, 2.96, 2.53,2.67, 2.93, 3.22, 3.39, 2.81, 4.20, 3.33, 2.55, 3.31, 3.31, 2.85, 2.56, 3.56,

3.15,2.35, 2.55, 2.59, 2.38, 2.81, 2.77, 2.17, 2.83, 1.92, 1.41, 3.68, 2.97, 1.36, 0.98,2.76, 4.91, 3.68, 1.84, 1.59,

3.19, 1.57, 0.81, 5.56, 1.73, 1.59, 2.00, 1.22, 1.12,1.71, 2.17, 1.17, 5.08, 2.48, 1.18, 3.51, 2.17, 1.69, 1.25, 4.38,

1.84, 0.39, 3.68,2.48, 0.85, 1.61, 2.79, 4.70, 2.03, 1.80, 1.57, 1.08, 2.03, 1.61, 2.12, 1.89, 2.88, 2.82,2.05, 3.65.

We fitted the proposed OGELLD curve for the above datawhich is shown in the following graphs:

We estimate the unknown parameters of proposed model by the maximum likelihood method. In order to compare

the models considered by Lemonte(2014) with the proposed OGELLD model, we consider the Cramrvon Mises

(W*) and AndersonDarling (A*) statistics. The statistics W* and A* are described in details in Chen and

Balakrishnan (1995). In general, the smaller the values of these statistics, the better the fit to the data. Let H(x; )

be the c.d.f., where the form of H is known but (a k-dimensional parameter vector) is unknown. To obtain the

statistics W* and A*, we can proceed as follows: (i) Compute v i H ( x i ; ) where the xis are in ascending

,

order, and then y i

n

u i y i y / s y , where y (1 / n ) y i a n d s y ( n 1)

2

i 1

y ;

2

i 1

n

( 2 i 1) /( 2 n ) 1 /(1 2 n ) a n d A n (1 / n ) ( 2 i 1) ln ( u i ) ( 2 n 1 2 i ) ln (1 u i )

2

i 1

n

1

(iii) Calculate W 2

and then

i 1

(1 0 .5 / n ) a n d A

A (1 0 .7 5 / n 2 .2 5 / n ) .

2

The followingTable lists the MLEs (and the corresponding standard errors in parentheses) of the parameters of all

the models for the data set (breaking stress of carbon fibres). The statistics W * and A* are also listed in this table

for the models. As can be seen from the figures of this table, the new model OGELLD proposed in this paper

presents the smallest values of the statistics W* and A*than most of the other models, that is, the new model fits

the breaking stress of carbon fibres data better than most of the other models considered. More information is

provided by a visual comparison from the above graph of the histogram of the data with the fitted OGELLD

density function. Clearly, the OGELLD provides a closer fit to the histogram. The KaplanMeier (KM) estimate

and the estimated survival function of the fitted OGELLDand Q-Q plot are shown in the Figure 4. OGELLD has

four parameters. From this plot, note that the OGELLD model fits the data adequately and hence can be adequate

for this data.

*

*

Distribution

Estimates

W

A

Beta log

logistic (a,b,,

)

Exponentiated

log

logistic(a,,)

Weibull(, )

LeLLog(b, ,

)

KW (a, b, c,

)

0.09

(0.1700)

0.2254

(0.4452)

3.1486

(0.1851)

0.3339

(0.0998)

3.3815

(0.2270)

7.4714

(1.4975)

0.049

(0.0138)

7.8795

(11.370)

1.9447

(5.7460)

2.7929

(0.2131)

5.6426

(3.3334)

12.030

(146.64)

3.0234

(0.3873)

1.6217

(4.6401)

www.ijmsi.org

25.417

(46.670)

0.0561

(0.1776)

0.03867

0.27763

0.04627

0.3019

0.06227

0.41581

0.06717

0.38989

0.06938

0.40705

28 | Page

OGELLD( ,

, , )

BW (, , a,

b)

Exponentiated

Weibull(, ,

a)

MarshallOlkin

Weibull(, ,

)

Beta halfCauchy

(, a, b)

Log Logistic

(, )

Gamma(, )

Lognormal(, )

BirnbaumSaunders(,

)

1.2576

(2.0610)

0.1013

(0.3160)

0.0928

(0.0904)

6.2003

(24.4799)

2.4231(0.7389)

2.4089

(0.0607)

1.3080(0.6133)

2.4091

(0.5930)

0.6926

(0.8310)

1.3173

(0.0598)

0.8907(3.5611)

0.07036

0.41314

0.07039

0.41325

1.3168

(0.5969)

0.07036

0.41313

3.0094

(0.7181)

0.0309

(0.0472)

0.07052

0.43016

15.194

(20.687)

5.5944

(0.8087)

46.116

(70.775)

0.1386

0.70838

2.4984

(0.1051)

5.9526

(0.8193)

0.8774

(0.0444)

0.4622

(0.0327)

4.1179

(0.3444)

2.2708

(0.3261)

0.4439

(0.0314)

2.366 (0.1064)

0.23903

1.2409

0.14802

0.75721

0.27734

1.48332

0.29785

1.61816

I0

4 2 4 .7 9 7 9

5 .4 4 .2 9 1 5

0 .1 1 4 8

0 .1 0 7 2

5 .4 4 .2 9 1 5

0 .1 1 4 8

5 9 9 2 6 .8 5 4 2

1 .8 2 0 2

1 .8 2 0 2

0 .3 6 8 5

1 .8 1 3 4

0 .3 4 6 3

0 .1 0 7 2

1 .8 1 3 4

0 .3 4 6 3

0 .3 5 8 3

The approximate 95% two sided confidence intervals of the unknown parameters , , a n d are (0, 5.2972),

(0, 54.1810), (2.2899, 2.5278) and (1.1983, 1.4362) respectively.

In this paper, we have studied a new probability distribution called odd generalized exponential log

logistic distribution. This is a particular case of distributions proposed byTahiret al.(2015). The structural

properties of this distribution have been studied and inferences on parameters have also been mentioned.

Theappropriateness of fitting the odd generalized exponential log logistic distribution has been established by

analyzing a real life data set.

References

[1].

[2].

[3].

[4].

[5].

[6].

[7].

[8].

[9].

[10].

[11].

[12].

[13].

Abu-Zinadah, H.H. and Aloufi, A.S. (2014). Some Characterizations of the ExponentiatedGompertzDistribution, International

Mathematical Forum, 9(30), 14271439.

Ahmad, M. I., Sinclair, C. D. and Werritty, A. (1988). Log-Logistic Flood Frequency. AnalysisJournal of Hydrology, 98, 205-224.

Ashkar, F. and Mahdi, S. (2006). Fitting the log-logistic distribution by generalized moments. Journal of Hydrology, 328, 694-703.

Chen, G. and Balakrishnan, N. (1995). A general purpose approximate goodness-of-fit test. Journal of Quality Technology, 27,

154161.

Collet, D. (2003). Modelling Survival data in medical research. Chapman and Hall: London.

El-Damcese, M. A., Mustafa, A., El-Desouky, B. S. and Mustafa, M.E. (2015). Odd Generalized Exponential Gompertz.

Mathematics - Statistics Theory, 1-12.

Eugene, N., Lee, C. and Famoye, F. (2002). Beta-normal distribution and its applications, Communications in Statistics-Theory and

Methods, 31(4), 497512.

Gupta, R.D. and Kundu, D. (1999). Generalized exponential distribution, Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 41,

173-188.

Gupta, R.D. and Kundu, D. (2007). Generalized exponential distribution: Existing results and some recent developments, Journal

of Statistical Planning and Inference, 137(11), 35373547.

Kleiber, C. and Kotz, S. (2003). Statistical Size Distributions in Economics and Actuarial Sciences, John Wiley: New York.

Lemonte, A.J. (2014). The beta log-logistic distribution. Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, 28(3), 313-332.

Nichols, M. D. and Padgett, W. J. (2006). A Bootstrap control chart for Weibull percentiles. Quality and Reliability Engineering

International, 22, 141151.

Tahir. M.H., Cordeiro, G.M., Alizadeh, M., Mansoor, M., Zubair, M. and Hamedani, G.G. (2015). The odd generalized

exponential family of distributions with applications. Journal of Statistical Distributions with Applications, 2, 1-28.

www.ijmsi.org

29 | Page

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