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Terms of Reference (ToR) for a Conflict Analysis of the Mandera

Triangle (Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia)

1. Introduction
This is a Terms of Reference (ToR) for a conflict analysis study to be undertaken by a
chosen Consultancy/Research agency on behalf of the Inter-Governmental Authority
on Development (IGAD) and the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) of the
United Nations (UN). In 2016, IGAD and FAO entered into a Program Partnership
(PP) to undertake resilience-enhancing interventions in border areas at the
intersection of Ethiopia (Liben), Kenya (Mandera) and Somalia (Gedo). The overall
objective of the proposed conflict analysis is to generate evidence that shall promote
better understanding of the conflict dynamics, systems and actors in the intervention
areas and inform future investment decisions. This cross-border area represents an
integrated cross-border economy, providing prospects for trade and cooperation
between populations residing on either side of the three borders and consequently an
opportunity to leverage and scale up investments. Yet the same region also
experiences seemingly intractable conflicts which compromises the resilience of
households and communities, undermines progress of planned interventions, and
contributes to a general environment of food insecurity.
Within the context of IGAD-FAO PP, IGADs Conflict Early Warning and Response
Mechanism(CEWARN) is seeking procure the services of a consultant/firm to help
sharpen her understanding of the causes, consequences, dynamics and actors,
issues, and complexities in the study area, in order to generate evidence that can be
drawn on by decision-makers, to justify their interventions, and contribute toward the
overall goal of the PP, namely to boost resilience and improve households and
communitys food security. In line with that, the Consultant, who will be under the
overall supervision of the CEWARN Director, will undertake a series of broad and
specific tasks categorised below, and as delineated in the Concept Note associated
with the assignment.
2. Responsibilities
a. Liaise with IGAD, FAO, CEWARN and CEWERUs of all the respective

countries at all time in the course of undertaking this assignment;

b. Conduct a desk review of conflict studies produced in region of interest within

the last reasonable period, and present an annotated version of its findings to

c. In line with the related Concept Note, develop appropriate methodology for

undertaking a comprehensive conflict analysis in the Mandera Triangle,

including developing a budget and logistical note for field operations. The
proposed methodology shall jointly be reviewed with IGAD-FAO prior to
undertaking field analyses;
d. Gather and analyse information in the intervention area, produce reports, and

in general promote an understanding of the complex and dynamic interaction

between factors, actors and issues that trigger or exacerbate conflict in the
region, and in line with that, propose options for interventions. The resultant
analytic report should identify threats and peace opportunities in the
intervention areas, and make concrete proposals for mitigating the former;
e. In liaison with IGAD-FAO, develop practical approaches to dealing with the

issues identified in report, including by identifying operational, tactical and

strategic level entry points for leveraging interventions and enriching policymaking. In line with this, identify gaps constraining interactions between civil,
military/security, humanitarian and development actors in the intervention

Be ready to present the analysis report to a validation audience, and

thereafter, incorporate comments and observations in the final report;

g. Ensure quality of field analyses at all time, including undertaking briefings with

IGAD and FAO as and when needed;

h. Participate in or and initiate regular risk and vulnerability assessments to

ensure the safety of the analysis teams at all time;


Supply IGAD-CEWARN and FAO with a list of any assistants to be used to

undertake the study, including their CVs, and a disaggregation of their
demographics by gender;


Any other responsibilities as may be assigned within the context of these


3. Expected Outputs
Notwithstanding the above, the following products and outputs are expected at the
end of the study, in both soft and hardcopy:
a. An annotated Literature review;

b. A briefing note (no more than 10 pages) highlighting the main findings of the
study within 7 days of completing fieldwork;

c. A comprehensive and thorough report analyzingconflict trends, drivers,

connectors, dynamics, actors, issues, and indeed opportunities for intervention
programming, among others. Such a report should be able to enrich
investment decision-making in the study area;

d. Interview notes, pictures, and or any audio and visual material and grey
literature collected or generated in the course of the fieldwork.

4. Competencies and Qualifications

The Consultant/Firm or team will have collective competencies in the following areas:
a. The team leader for the proposed undertaking shall possess no less than a
relevant post-graduate qualification in appropriate disciplines related to the
study, for example, conflict analysis and resolution, peace-building,
anthropology, political science or related fields;
b. Collectively, the team shall possess at least 20 years of experience conducting
conflict analysis or similar research in the identified intervention areas and the
Horn of Africa more generally;
c. Excellent research and report writing skills alongside demonstrated capacity to
analyse conflict-related data and information;
d. Strong interpersonal as well as communications and presentation skills--both
written and oral;
e. An understanding of current conflict analysis practice, methodologies and
f. Demonstrated understanding of issues related to confidentiality, data safety
and other ethical concerns related to receiving and sharing on sensitive data
and information;
g. Fluency in English and or any other language necessary for undertaking the
h. Relevant computer and computational skills: Word, Excel, INvivo and or SPSS,
among others.

5. Duration of the Assignment

This assignment will take place over a period no more than 60 working days from start to
completion beginning October 2016. It is anticipated that fieldwork, data analysis and
presentation of preliminary reports, as well validation and finalization of the document shall be
undertaken during the same period.
6. Payment Methods
The Consultant shall be paid by IGAD-CEWARN in two tranches at the beginning and at the
end of the consultancy respectively at a ratio of 40% and 60 % of the overall budget. In the
latter case, the payment shall be effected in line with IGAD Financial regulations and
7. Application Process
Individuals and or firms interested in undertaking the Consultancy are encouraged to submit
applications with accompanying documentation to Caroline Kirungu, at email:
email:,, no later 24th October 2014. The application package
should comprise a 2-page (maximum) description of the Consultants understanding of the
assignment, proposed methodology,a list and CVs of the proposed team (maximum of five
individuals), a tentative budget and work plan, and links or copies of similar work previously