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FALL 2016

Instructor

Room No.

Office Hours

Telephone

Secretary/TA

TA Office Hours

Course URL (if any)

COURSE BASICS

Credit Hours

Lecture(s)

Recitation/Lab (per week)

Tutorial (per week)

4-36, 4th Floor, SDSB Building

TBA

kamranali@lums.edu.pk

042 3560 8094

TBA

suraj.lums.edu.pk

4

Nbr of Lec(s) Per Week

Nbr of Lec(s) Per Week

Nbr of Lec(s) Per Week

Duration

Duration

Duration

110 minutes

COURSE DISTRIBUTION

Core

Core

Elective

Open for Student

Category

Close for Student

Category

COURSE DESCRIPTION (BRIEF)

Decision Analysis is a branch of science that focuses on utilizing quantitative techniques for the purpose for making

sound managerial decisions under various forms of constraints (economic, temporal and behavioral). This course

exposes students to the concepts, methods and techniques of decision analysis to conceptualize real world managerial

problems, analyze them and find workable solutions. The course covers topics such as: decision trees, decision making

under uncertainty, value of information, risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation, risk attitude, and multi-objective

decisions. A real world project and written case analyses provide avenues for practical learning.

COURSE DESCRIPTION (ELABORATE)

Major objectives of this course are:

(1) To understand basic concepts, methods and techniques of decision analysis;

(2) To develop capability to use quantitative techniques (in relation to decision analysis) for analyzing and solving real

world managerial problems;

(3) To have hands-on experience of developing spreadsheet models (using Microsoft Excel and an add-on software

namely Palisade Suite) for modeling and analyzing decisions;

Decision Analysis / Science is a branch of science that focuses on utilizing quantitative techniques for the purpose for

making sound managerial decisions under various forms of constraints (economic, temporal and behavioral) faced in the

real world problems. These problems may belong to an organziations functional areas such as finance, operations,

engineering, HRM and marketing functions etc. The problems may also be interdisciplinary in nature in which case

function or discipline specific techniques when applied to solving these problems may not necessarily result into

practical solutions. In such scenarios the techniques developed within the discipline of decision analysis may provide

broader frameworks and concepts that render practical solutions to such problems.

There are numerous examples in various disciplines where decision analysis concepts are needed for making sound

Page 2 of 10

decisions, for example in software engineering (e.g. decision about choosing one technology or process over the other),

legal decisions (e.g., understanding the effects of economic pressures on attributions of responsibility), risk assessments

(e.g., assessing risks of nuclear power or missile tests), marketing (e.g. launching specific product in a market) and

managerial decision making (e.g., correcting biases in the assessment of risk). The decision analysis concepts and

frameworks are equally applicable in problems belonging to many other disciplines as well.

Decision analysis relies heavily on decision theory which is concerned with identifying values of different alternatives,

uncertainties involved, their utilities, and other issues relevant to a given decision, its rationality, and the resulting

optimal decision. In order to exercise these concepts decision theory borrows some of the concepts from probability

theory.

In order to achieve aforementioned objectives two major steps have been taken while designing the course: (1) a number

of real world case studies are used in order to better comprehend applicability of decision analysis concepts and

techniques in real world problems. Extended class room discussions on case study analyses will be instrumental in

understanding key issues pertaining to application, managerial concerns, and assumptions around the technique while

focusing on the real world problem, (2) a number of lab sessions have been included in order to develop practical skills

of configuring and using spreadsheets for decision analysis.

COURSE PREREQUISITE(S)

Students should have taken DISC-203 or an equivalent course.

Major objectives of this course are:

(1) To expose students basic concepts, methods and techniques of decision analysis;

(2) To learn using quantitative techniques (in relation to decision analysis) for analyzing and solving real

(3) To have a hands on experience of developing spreadsheet models (using Microsoft Excel and an addon software namely Palisade Suite) for modeling and analyzing decisions;

UNDERGRADUATE PROGRAM LEARNING GOALS & OBJECTIVES

General Learning Goals & Objectives

Goal 1 Effective Written and Oral Communication

Objective: Students will demonstrate effective writing and oral communication skills

Goal 2 Ethical Understanding and Reasoning

Objective: Students will demonstrate that they are able to identify and address ethical issues in an

organizational context.

Goal 3 Analytical Thinking and Problem Solving Skills

Objective: Students will demonstrate that they are able to identify key problems and generate viable

solutions.

Goal 4 Application of Information Technology

Objective: Students will demonstrate that they are able to use current technologies in business and

management context.

Goal 5 Teamwork in Diverse and Multicultural Environments

Objective: Students will demonstrate that they are able to work effectively in diverse environments.

Goal 6 Understanding Organizational Ecosystems

Objective: Students will demonstrate that they have an understanding of Economic, Political,

Regulatory, Legal, Technological, and Social environment of organizations.

Major Specific Learning Goals & Objectives

Goal 7 (a) Program Specific Knowledge and Understanding

Objective: Students will demonstrate knowledge of key business disciplines and how they interact

Page 3 of 10

Goal 7 (b) Understanding the science behind the decision-making process (for MGS Majors)

Objective: Students will demonstrate ability to analyze a business problem, design and apply

appropriate decision-support tools, interpret results and make meaningful recommendations to support the

decision-maker

Indicate below how the course learning objectives specifically relate to any program learning goals and objectives.

Program Learning Goals and

Objectives

Goal 1 Effective Written and Oral

Communication

Goal 2 Ethical Understanding and

Reasoning

Goal 3 Analytical Thinking and

Problem Solving Skills

Written Case Analyses.

Group Project (Presentation).

(in relation to decision analysis) for Midterm Exam

analyzing and solving real world Final Exam

managerial problems (Obj-2);

To have a hands on experience of

developing spreadsheet models (using

Microsoft Excel and an add-on

software namely Palisade Suite) for

modeling and analyzing decisions

(Obj-3);

Technology

Goal 5 Teamwork in Diverse and

Multicultural Environments

Goal 6 Understanding

Organizational Ecosystems

Goal 7 (a) Program Specific

Knowledge and Understanding

Group Project.

methods and techniques of decision Group Project.

analysis (Obj-1);;

To learn using quantitative techniques

(in relation to decision analysis) for

analyzing and solving real world

managerial problems (Obj-2);

science behind the decision-making

process

LEARNING OUTCOMES

developing spreadsheet models (using

Microsoft Excel and an add-on

software namely Palisade Suite) for

modeling and analyzing decisions

(Obj-3);

To understand basic concepts, methods Quizzes

and techniques of decision analysis.

Midterm Exam

Final Exam

Page 4 of 10

Palisade Suite for conducting quantitative analyses.

Capability to take managerial decisions.

Written Cases Analyses / Assignment(s): 20%

Home Work: -----Quiz(s): 10% (generally announced, occasionally unannounced)

Class Participation: 15%

Attendance: given below

Midterm Examination: 10%

Project: 15%

Final Examination: 30%

The instructor has the right of re-assigning 5% of the grading criteria.

Class Participation Policy

Class participation grading will be carried out as per the following rules:

a)

c) 0.25 for attending the class without any participation in class discussions.

d) 0.5 to 0.7 for little participation in the class discussion (awarded for engaging in a discussion, asking questions

relevant to a discussion, describing case facts, giving an opinion or idea in relation to the discussion).

e) 1.0 to 1.5 for good participation in the class discussion (awarded for giving a valid contradictory viewpoint or

comprehensive argument or rationale behind a concept).

f) 2.0 for very good participation in the class discussion (awarded for hitting multiple es as mentioned above)

g) 2.5 for excellent participation in the class discussion (awarded for bringing to the class and supporting with solid

argument some concepts which even instructor does not know)

Group Project

Students will engage in a group project. The group size will be decided based on course enrollment. Students will

identify a decision situation in an organization and apply course concepts thus formulating and analyzing the problem.

Following this they will synthesize and suggest an appropriate solution to the problem. They will share their solution

with the case study organization, and understand from company personnel the likely problems in implementing their

solutions. The feedback obtained from the company personnel will be incorporated in the final project report.

A detailed description on group project will be provided once the course starts.

*** A few of the student projects will be shortlisted for conversion into teaching cases. Students will be asked if they are

interested to convert their projects into teaching cases that will be published in an international conference / case

journal and will make part of the DA course in the future.

Page 5 of 10

EXAMINATION DETAIL

Yes/No: Yes

Combine Separate: Combine

Midterm

Duration: 3 Hours in the Lab

Exam

Preferred Date:

Exam Specifications: Closed Books / Open Notes

Final Exam

Yes/No: Yes

Combine Separate: Combine

Duration: 4 Hours in the Lab

Exam Specifications: Closed Books / Open Notes

TEXTBOOK(S)/SUPPLEMENTARY READINGS

Following books are recommended for this course however, students are strongly encouraged to consult any other

resources such as: books, journals, magazines, sharing personal experiences to enhance their learning.

[AWZ]: Albright, S.C., Winston, W.L., and Zappe, C., 2006, Data Analysis & Decision Making With Microsoft Excel,

3e, Thomson, South-Western, ISBN: 0-324-40083-7.

[CLEMEN]: Clemen, R. T., 2001, Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis with Decision Tools,

Duxbury Press, Thomson Learning, ISBN: 0-534-36597-3.

[PB]: Powell, S.G., and Baker, K.R., 2009, Management Science The Art of Modeling with Spreadsheets, John Wiley

& Sons Inc., ISBN-13: 978-0-470-39376-5.

[ASW] Anderson, Sweeney & Williams, Statistics for Business and Economics.

Page 6 of 10

S.

No.

Session

Type

Topic

Assignment Questions

Session Objectives

INTRODUCTION

1.

2.

3.

Class

Session

Lab

Introduction

Readings:

(1) PB-Chapter-2: Modeling in a

Problem Solving Framework

(Sections 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 2.4)

(2) Learning by the Case Method, by

Hammond, J.S. (HBS # 9-376-241)

Readings:

Using

Spreadsheet

(1) AWZ-Chapter-5: Probability and

for

Probability Distribution (Sections

Probability &

5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4, 5.5, 5.6)

Probability

(2) AWZ-Chapter-6: Normal,

Distributions

Binomial, Poisson, and Exponential

Distributions (Sections 6.1, 6.2,

6.3, 6.7)

Read Learning by the Case Method for the second class

session.

Practice examples in the lab.

Decision analysis

and problemsolving.

Revision of

probability

distributions.

MODELING DECISIONS

4.

Class

Session

Influence

Diagram and

Payoff Table

5.

Class

Session

Decision

Trees

6.

Class

Session

Decision

Trees

Reading: CLEMEN-Chapter

Structuring Decisions pp43-65

Readings:

(1) Decision Trees for Decision

Making

(2) CLEMEN-Chapter-3: Structuring

Decisions pp69-83

Case: Freemark Abbey

and Robert Alexander, which price would you recommend,

$2.15 or $2.36?

Developing

Influence Diagrams

and Payoff Tables.

Developing and

analyzing decision

trees.

How are decision trees analyzed?

grapes before the storm arrives, how much money will he

make?

2. Assuming Mr. Jaeger chooses to leave the grapes on the

vine, what is the probability that the grapes will end up

with botrytis, and how much money will he make if that

occurs?

3. Taking account of all the various possibilities, what

Developing and

analyzing decision

trees.

Page 7 of 10

Read specified material and prepare yourself for in-class

discussion.

7.

Class

Session

Sensitivity

Analysis

Reading: CLEMEN-Chapter-5:

Sensitivity Analysis pp174-192

8.

Class

Session

Sensitivity

Analysis

Reading: Cash Flow and Time Value of

Money (SKIM)

for the Dhahran Roads project?

2. Be sure that your recommendation acknowledges any key

sources of risk in the conduct of the project and any

negotiable parameters of the proposed contract.

3. Does sensitivity analysis change your decision when

compared to the base case?

The role of

sensitivity analysis

in decision

modeling, analyzing

and making.

The role of

sensitivity analysis

in decision

modeling, analyzing

and making.

MODELING UNCERTAINTY

9.

Class

Session

DecisionMaking

under

Uncertainty

Choices pp111-145

discussion.

Making decisions in

probabilistic

situations.

10.

Lab

Using

Spreadsheet

for Decision

Trees

Making under Uncertainty, Section-7.2,

7.3.

Making decision

trees using a

spreadsheet.

DecisionMaking

under

Uncertainty

11.

Class

Session

various functions of PrecisionTree module that relate to

making and analyzing decision trees using software.

Solve problems 36 and 37 given at the end of the chapter.

T-shirts? 7,500? 10,000?

2. How many T-shirts should Lassiter order?

Making decisions in

probabilistic

situations.

MID-TERM EXAM

12.

Class

Session

Value of

Information

of Information, pp496-509

discussion.

13.

Class

Session

Value of

Information

should be taken?

availability of

information on the

decision.

The influence of the

availability of

Page 8 of 10

14.

Lab

Spreadsheet

Modeling for

Decision

Making

under

Uncertainty

Simulation

Modeling

with

Spreadsheets

15.

16.

Lab

17.

Class

Session

Monte Carlo

Simulations

18.

Class

Session

Monte Carlo

Simulations

Making under Uncertainty, Section-7.4,

7.5.

Reading: AWZ-Chapter-16:

Introduction to Simulation Modeling,

Sections 16.3, 16.4, 16.5, and 16.6.

standard system not working? How far off would your

assessment have to be before you would change your

recommendation?

3. What about reputation? Can you afford the chance of such

a visible failure? How much does reputation have to be

worth to change the decision on economic grounds?

4. What is this test worth to you? What would you pay for a

perfect information?

Practice examples 7.2, 7.3, 7.4 in the lab. Practicing these

examples will help you solve the following assignment.

ASSIGNMENT: Solve problems 19, 21, 22 individually

and submit your solutions.

information on the

decision.

Understanding RISK

as a package to

model decisions

using simulations.

Practice examples 16.1, 16.2, 16.3, 16.4 and 16.5 in the

lab. Practicing these examples will help you solve the

following assignment.

ASSIGNMENT: Solve problems 11, 17, 22, 26

individually and submit your solutions.

Read specified material and prepare yourself for in-class

Readings:

(1) CLEMEN-Chapter-11: Monte Carlo discussion.

Simulation pp 459-487.

(2) Probability Distributions and

Simulation (SKIM).

The goal of this assignment is for you to help Frank Lockfeld

Case:

better understand the risks he is taking with his Calambra

(1) Calambra Olive Oil (A)

Olive Oil venture and to help him figure out how many

(2) Calambra Olive Oil (B)

gallons of olive oil he should order in 1994. We will analyze

this business problem in two parts.

Part A: In the first part, you should use the spreadsheet model

LIQUIDGOLD.XLS [available] and the ranges provided by

Frank Lockfeld to develop a tornado chart to identify the

important uncertainties in the problem. Be sure you can

explain any surprising findings in this analysis.

Part B: After that class you will be given the (B) case, which

Practicing

probabilistic

decisions using

spreadsheets.

Understanding

Monte Carlo

simulation method.

Applying Monte

Carlo Simulation

method in a real-life

business problem.

Page 9 of 10

19.

20.

Lab

Simulation

Modeling

with

Spreadsheets

identified as important. Using this information, you should

develop a simulation model to resolve the key questions of the

case: How much olive oil should Frank Lockfeld order? How

risky is this venture?

Practice examples 17.1, 17.2, 17.3, 17.4, 17.5, 17.7, 17.8,

17.9 in the lab. Practicing these examples will help you

solve the following assignment.

ASSIGNMENT: Solve problems 17, 18, 20 individually

and submit your solutions.

Models, Sections 17.2, 17.3, 17.4.

Understanding RISK

as a package to

model decisions

using simulations.

MODELING PREFERENCES

21.

Class

Session

Risk Attitude

Attitude, pp 527-555.

discussion.

22.

Lab

Incorporating

Risk Attitude

23.

Class

Session

Risk Attitude

Making under Uncertainty, Section7.6.

Case: Risk Analysis for Merck &

Company: Product KL-798

Solve problems 77, 79, 80 in the lab.

For questions 1 and 2 only, assume that Merck will follow the

advice of George W. Merck, We try never to forget that

medicine is for the people. It is not for the profits. The profits

follow, and if we have remembered that, they have never failed

to appear.

1. First, do a risk neutral analysis.

(a) Draw an influence diagram that captures the dynamics of the

KL-798 opportunity. (b) What is the expected monetary value of

the KL-798 opportunity? Be very clear about how your

spreadsheet works.

2. Now consider risk aversion in your analysis. What would be

the certainty equivalent for the total opportunity?

3. Assume that we ignore George W. Mercks advice and always

seek the financially best path. (a) Draw a decision tree of the

sequence of decisions and uncertainties and integrate it with the

influence diagram from question 1a. (b) What now is the

expected monetary value of KL-798? Clearly describe how you

arrived at this solution and provide information on how your

Understanding the

influence of

manager risk

attitude on

decisions.

Practicing risk

attitude using a

spreadsheet.

Understanding the

influence of

manager risk

attitude on

decisions.

Page 10 of 10

24.

Class

Session

25.

Class

Session

26.

Class

Session

27.

28.

Class

Session

Structuring

MultiObjective

Decisions

Additive

Utility

Function

Reading: CLEMEN-Chapter-15:

Conflicting Objectives I:

Fundamental Objectives and the

Additive Utility Function pp599-621.

Case: Sleepmore Mattress

Manufacturing; Plant Consolidation.

Multiattribute

Utility

Models

Reading: CLEMEN-Chapter-16:

Conflicting Objectives II: Multiattribute Utility Models with

Interactions pp644-659

KL-798 to Merck when considering their risk preference?

Read specified material and prepare yourself for in-class

discussion.

in the note and consider how the approaches might be

applied to the case.

2. Rate the four quantitative attributes, determine the

appropriate weights for the attributes and compare the three

locations. If you had to phase in the consolidations one at a

time, in what order would you do them?

3. How sensitive is your ranking to the weights you assigned?

4. How would you score plant size at site 1 if the sales were

$30 million at plant A rather than $3 million? Would you

change the range of the scale, or the weight of the attribute,

or both?

5. Implicit in your analysis are some trade-offs that can be

calculated. For example, what is the dollar value (in terms of

initial cost) of improving the labor attribute by 1 unit on the

10-point scale?

Read specified material and prepare yourself for in-class

discussion.

FINAL EXAM

Understanding

multi-objective

decisions and

structuring them.

Additive utility

function as a method

of analyzing multiobjective decisions.

Multiplicative utility

function as a method

of analyzing multiobjective decisions.

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