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Multi stage Dividend Discount model

Assumption
Explisit forecast period
March 2015 to March 2025
Termial period
March 2025 onwards

Gross sales
PBT
PAT
EPS
DPS
No of shares
Dividet payout ratio

2015
32086.32

2010 CAGR
18220.27 1.119832

2016
2017
35931 40237.03

5523.12
2,707.07
3,842.86
2102.68 1.128174 4335.42 4891.106
19.95
10.1 1.145841 22.8595 26.05986
15
6.5
16.0017 18.2419
1926245614 2081861386
75.19
64.36
0.7
0.7

Assuming DPR 0.7 for 2015-2020 & 0.65 for 2021-2025


Same no of shares i.e.2081861386 for 2025

DPS of year
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-24
Mar-25
Total

DPS
16
18.24
20.79
23.7
27
28.6
32.61
37.18
42.38
48.31

Termial value
PV of Terminal value

PV of DPS
14.49
14.95
15.43
15.93
16.43
15.76
16.27
16.80
17.34
17.90
161.31
1766.79
654.518

*Gross sale

2018
45058.73

2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
50458.23 56504.76 63275.86 70858.35 79349.48 88858.11

*Gross sales,PAT and EPS are forecasted using r.p. CAGR


5518.022
29.70824
20.79577
0.7

6225.29 7023.215 7923.412 8938.991 10084.74 11377.35


33.87 38.60883 44.01406 50.17603 57.20068 65.20877
23.71 27.02618 28.60914 32.61442 37.18044 42.3857
0.70

0.7

0.65

0.65

Risk free rate


beta
ERP (Rm-Rf)
Growh rate
Ke

PV of share
Current value
Investment decision

815.83
850.6
Short Sell

0.65

0.65

7.80%
0.44
6%
7.50%
10.4400%

2025
99506.19

12835.63
74.338
48.3197
0.65

G Sec 10 year bechmark security yield


reuters
Assumption
GDP rate