NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Tuesday, October 18 2016 at 6:00AM ET
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout
the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM. Results released prior to September 20 were among
registered voters. Results among likely voters are denoted with an asterisk below.
Results for the week of October 10, 2016 through October 16, 2016 are among a national sample of 24,804 likely voters (+/- 1.0%),
6,961 likely Republican voters (+/-1.8%) and 8,711 likely Democratic voters (+/-1.6%). Complete error estimates can be found in the
methodology section below.

TOPLINE RESULTS
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

10/10 – 10/16*
10/3—10/9*
9/26—10/2*
9/19—9/25*
9/12—9/18*
9/5—9/11
8/29—9/4
8/22—8/28
8/15—8/21
8/8—8/14
8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/18--7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24

Foreign
Policy
5
5
4
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
5
5
4
5
5
4

The
environment
9
9
8
8
9
9
9
9
8
7
8
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
8

Terrorism
15
16
19
19
15
14
14
16
17
18
20
23
26
23
22
21
21
23
12
12
13
13
12
12
14
14
16
17
19
18
12
13
13
14
16
16
15
17
19

Immigration
7
9
7
8
8
10
7
7
8
7
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
7
7
7
7
6
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
8
7

Health
care
15
14
14
14
17
16
17
16
16
15
14
13
13
12
13
13
15
14
17
17
15
16
16
15
16
15
15
14
15
13
15
16
16
16
15
14
16
13
15

Jobs and the
Economy
33
33
33
30
32
32
32
33
32
33
32
30
28
29
29
31
28
29
37
35
36
36
35
36
33
32
32
31
32
32
36
35
35
34
33
34
32
32
33

Education
9
9
8
9
9
10
10
10
9
10
9
8
8
8
9
8
9
9
10
11
10
12
11
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
11
10
11
10
10
10
10
10
10

Other
5
5
6
6
5
5
6
5
6
5
6
6
7
8
7
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
5
6
5
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28-1/3

5
5
6

8
8
8

21
23
23

8
8
8

13
13
14

29
28
27

10
8
9

4
5
5

1
1
1

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
10/10—10/16*
10/3—10/9*
9/26—10/2*
9/19—9/25*
9/12—9/18*
9/5—9/11
8/29—9/4
8/22—8/28
8/15—8/21
8/8—8/14
8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/18—7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2—5/8
4/25—5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Strongly approve
32
32
32
33
32
29
29
30
31
30
32
32
28
27
27
28
30
30
29
27
27
27
28
28
27
26
28
27
28
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
27
25
26
26
23
23

Somewhat approve
21
20
20
19
20
22
22
21
21
22
21
20
21
22
22
22
22
21
22
24
23
23
23
23
24
24
24
23
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
24
23
22
24
22
22
25

Somewhat disapprove
10
10
11
10
11
11
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
12
12
11
12
12
12
12
12
13
13
12
13
13
12
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
14
12
12
12

Strongly disapprove
36
37
36
37
36
38
36
36
36
37
35
36
39
38
38
38
35
37
36
37
37
36
35
36
36
37
37
37
35
35
35
36
37
37
39
38
38
40
36
40
42
40

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
10/10—10/16*
10/3—10/9*
9/26—10/2*
9/19—9/25*
9/12—9/18*
9/5—9/11
8/29—9/4
8/22—8/28
8/15—8/21
8/8—8/14
8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/18---7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16—5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 - 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Republican
30
30
29
28
29
30
30
29
29
28
30
30
31
29
27
28
28
28
28
29
28
29
28
32
28
28
29
30
29
30
30
31
32
31
31
30
30
31
28
31
33
30

Democrat
36
35
36
36
36
34
34
34
35
34
36
36
32
33
33
34
35
34
35
35
33
34
35
35
36
35
34
34
35
33
36
35
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
32
34

Independent
33
33
33
34
34
34
35
36
34
37
32
33
36
36
38
37
36
36
36
36
37
35
35
31
35
36
35
35
35
36
32
33
31
33
33
33
33
33
36
33
34
34

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2

As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DON’T KNOW FOR
PARTY]
10/10—10/16*
10/3—10/9*
9/26—10/2*
9/19—9/25*
9/12—9/18*
9/5—9/11
8/29—9/4
8/22—8/28

Republic
an Party
35
35
35
36
35
34
31
31

Democratic
Party
30
30
29
30
29
26
26
28

Neither
32
31
33
31
33
39
41
40

No
answer
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2

8/15—8/21
8/8—8/14
8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/18—7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4 – 4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

29
31
29
33
32
37
32
33
32
32
33
33
32
31
33
32
32
35
33
33
31
31
31
31
32
34
38
34
35
34
33
36
36
37

26
27
29
27
26
26
26
26
29
28
28
26
28
29
28
32
27
27
30
28
29
28
28
27
29
28
28
28
30
26
27
26
26
24

43
39
40
38
39
34
39
37
36
36
36
37
37
37
36
35
38
35
34
35
38
37
39
41
36
36
33
35
33
37
39
37
36
37

2
2
1
2
2
3
4
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
1
3
3
3
4
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
1
1

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?

10/10—10/16*
10/3—10/9*
9/26—10/2*
9/19—9/25*
9/12—9/18*
9/5—9/11
8/29—9/4
8/22—8/28
8/15—8/21
8/8—8/14
8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/18—7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19

Hillary
Clinton, the
Democrat
51
51
50
51
50
48
48
48
50
50
51
50
46
46
47
48
49
48

Donald
Trump, the
Republican
43
44
44
44
45
44
42
42
42
41
41
42
45
45
44
43
41
42

No
answer
6
5
6
6
6
8
10
10
8
8
8
8
9
9
10
9
10
10

6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16– 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8

49
48
47
47
48
49

42
44
45
43
45
44

9
9
8
9
7
7

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates for whom would you vote?

10/10—10/16*
10/3—10/9*
9/26—10/2*
9/19—9/25*
9/12—9/18*
9/5—9/11
8/29—9/4
8/22—8/28
8/15—8/21
8/8—8/14
8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/18—7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
6/2—6/5

Donald
Trump, the
Republican
40
41
40
40
40
40
37
37
38
37
38
38
41
40
38
38
36
38
38
40

Hillary
Clinton, the
Democrat
46
46
46
45
45
42
41
41
43
43
44
43
39
39
40
41
42
42
42
39

Gary
Johnson,
the
Libertarian
8
8
9
10
10
11
12
11
11
11
10
9
10
10
11
9
9
9
9
9

Jill Stein,
the
Green
Party
4
3
3
3
4
4
4
5
5
4
4
4
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
4

No
answer
2
2
2
2
2
3
6
6
4
5
4
5
6
7
6
6
7
7
6
8

What are the chances that you will vote in the general election for President in November?

10/10—10/16
10/3—10/9
9/26—10/2
9/19—9/25
9/12—9/18

I already
voted
4
3
N/A
N/A
N/A

Absolutely
certain I
will vote
81
83
82
81
81

Large chance
I will vote
7
8
8
9
10

50-50
chance I will
vote
4
4
5
5
5

Small chance I
will vote
2
2
2
2
2

I will not
vote
1
1
1
2
2

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of October 10, 2016 through October 16, 2016 was conducted online
among a national sample of 24,804 adults aged 18 and over who are likely to vote. Respondents for this survey were selected from the nearly three
million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age, race, sex, education,
region, and voter registration status using the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Current Population Survey to reflect the demographic
composition of the United States. An additional smoothing parameter for ideology based on previous Election Tracking interviews is included. The
smoothing parameter was derived from aggregated data on ideology by region collected from previous weeks (May 1-June 26) of the Weekly
Election Tracking poll.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error
can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and
measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate.
The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.0 percentage point for likely voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence
intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in
much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group
Total LVs

Unweighted N
24,804

Plus or minus
1.0

Republican LVs
Democrat LVs
Independent LVs

6,961
8,711
8,884

1.8
1.6
1.6

Male LVs
Female LVs

12,925
11,879

1.2
1.2

18-29 LVs
30-44 LVs
45-64 LVs
65+ LVs

2,559
4,715
11,877
5,653

2.9
2.1
1.4
1.9

White LVs
Black LVs
Hispanic LVs
Other LVs

20,005
1,756
1,084
1,959

1.1
3.2
4.5
3.6

College graduate LVs
No college degree LVs

15,714
9,090

1.0
1.4

Women 18-29 LVs
Women 30-44 LVs
Women 45-64 LVs
Women 65+ LVs

1,217
2,124
5,538
3,000

2.9
1.8
1.8
2.6

Men 18-29 LVs
Men 30-44 LVs
Men 45-64 LVs
Men 65+ LVs

1,342
2,591
6,339
6,339

2.9
1.6
1.6
2.5

Women college graduate LVs
Women no college degree LVs

7,757
4,122

1.2
1.8

Men college graduate LVs
Men no college degree LVs

7,957
4,968

1.2
1.7