www.informatandm.

com

World
Mobile Trend Analysis

Data at the centre of mobile operator strategy - offsetting

the weakness in voice revenues with increasing data revenues.
For further details about the data in these slides, click on the URL links to the live sites below each data set
If you have any requests or suggestions for other data sets to be included, please contact us at Analyst Support
analystsupport@informa.com

Informa UK Limited 2011. All rights reserved.

2H10 Highlights

Overall global subscription at the end December 2010 came in at 5.3 billion (+15.6% y-o-y), with AsiaPacific ranked first with 48.5% share of global subscription base, followed by Western Europes share of 10.9% and
Americas 10.7%.

Total global net-additions for 2H10 increased by 10.2% y-o-y. The growth came primarily from Africa at
26.2% y-o-y, followed by Middle East at 16.9% y-o-y, and USA/Canada at 15.0% y-o-y.

Global 3G subscription exhibited a healthy growth in 2H10. In the six months to December 2010, the global
subscription base grew 27.1% y-o-y, of which Eastern Europe maintained the top share of 56.5%, and Asia Pacific
occupied the second top share of 40.6%.

4Q10 ARPU showed a y-o-y decline in all regions except in Africa and Asia Pacific, among which Middle
East posted the sharpest decline of -10.8% y-o-y at the end 4Q10, followed by Western Europe of -7.3% y-o-y, and
Asia Pacific demonstrated strong growth of 12.1%.

Data being positioned as the centre of business strategy, with operators aiming to offset the weakness in
voice revenues with increasing data revenues.

Out of all the African operators tracked in World Cellular Data Metrics, data as a % of revenue for the region came to
8.6% in 4Q10; out of all the North America operators tracked, data as a % of revenue is the highest among all
regions, with 35.6% in 4Q10.

Strong growth continued in Smartphone subscriptions. North America remained as the biggest Smartphone
market in volume terms, with its subscription base accounting for 53.9% of overall global mobile broadband
subscriptions out of all the world operators tracked in World Cellular Data Metrics in 4Q10.

Mobile subscription data

Total global net-additions increased by 19.4% y-o-y in1H10. Net-add growth came primarily from Asia
Pacific at 31.3% y-o-y, followed by U.S.A./Canada at 19.1% y-o-y, and Americas at 15.7% y-o-y.
Subscriptions

Share of Global Subscription in 2H 2010

quarterly growth rate (%)

5,400

5.00%
4.50%
4.00%
3.50%
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%

5,200
5,000
4,800
4,600
4,400
4,200

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

Africa, 18.01%
Middle East,
21.03%

Americas,
11.64%

4Q10

Global Summary

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

Subscriptions (m)

4,604.2

4,769.7

4,949.7

5,115.7

5,325.9

191.6

165.6

179.9

179.2

210.2

Quarterly growth (%)

3.3

3.8

4.3

3.6

3.8

Penetration (%)

66.8

69.0

71.2

73.6

76.4

Prepaid (%)

74.5

74.7

74.8

75.0

75.1

Net adds (m)

USA/Canada,
6.47%

Europe:
Western, 0.96%
Asia Pacific,
23.66%

Europe:
Eastern, 5.93%

Share of Global Net Additions in 2H 2010

USA/Canada,
14.97%

Net Additions by Region in 2H 2010

300000

Africa, 26.25%
Middle East,
16.86%

250000
200000
150000
100000

2H 09

50000

2H 10

Europe:
Western,
10.52%

Americas,
11.34%

Asia Pacific,
Europe:
8.31%
Eastern, 12.16%

Top 20 markets* by net additions in 2H2010

* For countries with more than 10 million subscriptions in the end-December. 2010.

Top 20 markets* by % growth in 2H2010

* For countries with more than 10 million subscriptions in the end-December. 2010.

Subscription forecasts, 2010-2015

Informa Telecoms & Media foresees strong growth comes from India in volume terms,
forecasting +3.6% CAGR in Indias total subscription over the next 5 years.

* For countries with more than 10 million subscriptions at the end 2010.
Top 10 countries by net additions, 2011-2015
Subscribers, million
600

Global Subscription Forecast 2011-2015

Subscribers, million
9,000
8,000

USA/Canada

500

7,000

Middle East

400

6,000

300
200

100
0

Europe: Western

5,000

Europe: Eastern

4,000

Asia Pacific

3,000

Americas

2,000

Africa

1,000
0
2011

http://www.wcisplus.com/wcisplus/NumericalDataPage.html

2012

2013

2014

2015

3G trends
Global 3G subscription exhibited a healthy growth in 2H10. In the six months to December 2010, the
global subscription base grew 26.5% y-o-y, of which Eastern Europe maintained the top share of 38.7%.
New 3G networks in2H10

Millions

3G Subscriptions by Technology, 4Q09 to 4Q10

900
800
700
600

WCDMA

500

EV-DO

400

HSPA

300

EV-DO Rev A

200
100
0
4Q 09

1Q 10

2Q 10

3Q 10

4Q 10

Millions

3G Subscription by Region, 4Q 09 vs. 4Q 10

180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

3G defined as W-CDMA, HSPA, EV-DO and EV-DO Rev A

http://www.wcisplus.com/wcisplus/resources/viewreports/1x_subs.xls

4Q 09
4Q 10

Country
Africa
Angola
Malawi
Rwanda
Senegal
South Africa
Americas
Bermuda
Bolivia
Colombia
French West Indies
Puerto Rico
Turks & Caicos Islands
Asia Pacific
Australia
Cambodia
India
India
India
Laos
Macau
Nepal
New Zealand
Vietnam
Europe
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Greenland
Italy
Kazakhstan
Kirghizstan
Poland
Poland
Slovak Republic
Turkmenistan
USA/Canada
Canada
Canada
Canada

Operator

Technology

Start Date

Movicel
Bharti Airtel Malawi
Tigo Rwanda
Sudatel Senegal
Cell C

W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-9/21

Dec 2010
Sep 2010
Aug 2010
Jun 2010
Sep 2010

Digicel Bermuda
NuevaTel
UNE EPM Telecomunicaciones
Digicel French West Indies
T-Mobile Puerto Rico
Islandcom Wireless

W-CDMA-1900
W-CDMA-1900
W-CDMA-1900
W-CDMA-1900
W-CDMA-2100(IV)
W-CDMA-850

Sep 2010
Sep 2010
Jun 2010
Dec 2010
Sep 2010
Jun 2010

3 Australia
Viettel Cambodia
BSNL
Reliance Communications
Tata Teleservices
Star Telecom
SmarTone
Ncell
Two Degrees Mobile
EVN Telecom

W-CDMA-850
W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-2100

Jun 2010
Jul 2010
Jun 2010
Dec 2010
Nov 2010
Sep 2010
Jul 2010
Sep 2010
Aug 2010
Jun 2010

A-Mobile
GSM Kazakhstan
TeleGreenland
50&Pi Fenacom
Kar-Tel
Sky Mobile
Dialog
Telefonia Dialog SA
Telefonica O2 Slovak Republic
MTS-Turkmenistan

W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-900
W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-2100

Jul 2010
Dec 2010
Aug 2010
Dec 2010
Dec 2010
Nov 2010
Sep 2010
Sep 2010
Aug 2010
Nov 2010

Mobilicity
SaskTel Mobility
Videotron

W-CDMA-2100(IV)
W-CDMA-8/19
W-CDMA-2100(IV)

Nov 2010
Aug 2010
Sep 2010

Technology forecast, 2010-2015

Informa Telecoms & Media forecasts 2G subscriptions will be overtaken by 3.5G subscribers in 2015,
with the 3.5G subscription share increasing to 36.3% in 2015 from 8.7% in 2010.
Regional Share of HSPA Subscription, 2011

Global Subscription Forecast by Technology

USA/Canada
17%

Million
7,000

Africa 3%

Middle East
2%

6,000
5,000
4,000

Asia
Pacific
31%

European:
Western
30%

1xEV-DO

1xEV-DO Rev A/B

European:
Eastern%

HSPA

3,000

GSM

Africa 10%

USA/CAanada
6%
Middle
East 6%

2,000
1,000

Americas 8%

Americas
12%

European:
Western 21%

0
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Asia Pacific
35%
European:
Eastern 11%

Forecast for 3G Split

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

HSPA

628,078,100

960,664,200

1,380,941,500

1,886,587,700

2,464,698,300

WCDMA-only

379,628,600

486,664,400

592,717,600

700,398,600

808,712,000

EV-DO-only

80,845,000

68,599,000

53,628,000

40,730,000

30,477,000

EV-DO Rev. A

106,824,500

172,333,100

241,525,500

312,036,700

377,313,500

http://www.wcisplus.com/wcisplus/resources/viewreports/ForecastSummary.xls

Mobile broadband summary

Asia-Pacific remained the biggest mobile broadband markets in volume terms, with its subscription
base accounted for 33.1% of overall global mobile broadband subscription in 4Q10.

Mobile Broadband Subscription, Q409 to Q410

In millions
1200
1000

USA/Canada
Middle East

800

Europe: Western

600

Europe: Eastern
Asia Pacific

400

Americas
200

Africa

0
Q4 09

Q1 10

Q2 10

Q3 10

Q4 10

Top Five Mobile Broadband Markets, Q410

In millions
600.00
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00
CHINA

Note:

USA

JAPAN

KOREA

Mobile broadband subscriptions refer to the number of active subscriptions used in a device enabled for HSPA, EV-DO,
or EV-DO Rev A covering all device types (datacards, USB modems, embedded notebooks and handsets).

http://www.wcisplus.com/wcisplus/AnalystToolsPage.html#worldcellulardatametrics

UK

Handset market summary

Informa Telecoms & Media forecasts the proportion of handset sales from smartphone will increase
to 39.7% of global handset sales in 2015, up from 21.6% in 2010.
Global Smartphone sales by operating system, 2011 to 2015

Smartphone sales vol (m)

700
MeeGo

webOS

Blackberry OS

Apple iOSX (iPhone)

300

Palm OS

Android

200

LiMO + other Linux

Microsoft (total)

600
500
400

100

Symbian (total)

0
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015
Global handset sales by Smartphones and nonSmartphones, 2010 to 2015

Number of Handsets launched onto the market by selected

manufacturers 1Q10 to 4Q10

Smartphones sales (Units)

160

3,500.0
LG

120

ZTE

100

Sharp

80

Alcatel
Sony Ericsson

60

Kyocera

40

Motorola

20

Toshiba
Samsung
Q1 2010

Q2 2010

Q3 2010

Q4 2010

http://www.wcisplus.com/wcisplus/AnalystToolsPage.html#worldcellularhandsettracker
http://ic.informatm.com/spreadsheets/show/103464

Global handset sales

(Mil of units)

Nokia

140
Number of Handsets

Non smartphones sales (Units)

3,000.0
2,500.0
2,000.0
1,500.0
1,000.0
500.0
0.0
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Asia Pacific Data Market

Data at the centre of business strategies in Asia-Pacific.
Asia Pacific, Top 10 Operators by Non-SMS Data Revenue as a % of Total Data
Revenue, Q4 10

NTT DoCoMo (Japan)

KDDI (Japan)
Softbank Mobile (Japan)

AIS (Thailand)
True Move (Thailand)
KT Corp (Korea)
LG U+ (Korea)

DTAC (Thailand)

FarEasTone (Taiwan)
SmarTone-Vodafone (Hong Kong)
0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Asia Pacific, Revenue Forecast, 2011-2015

Revenue, US$ million

180,000,000
160,000,000

140,000,000
120,000,000

Data

100,000,000

Voice

80,000,000

60,000,000

40,000,000
20,000,000
0
2011

2012

2013

2014

http://www.informatm.com/itmgcontent/icoms/reports/3000004726.xls

2015

Asia-Pacific remained as the biggest

contributors for the global data revenue
growth, generating 40.5% of the overall data
revenue.
Increase in data revenue as a % of service
revenue continues in Japan, with Softbanks
data revenue accounted for 54.1% of total mobile
service revenue during 4Q10, versus NTT DoCoMos
49.5%, and KDDIs 46.6%.
Japans
Softbank
saw
data
ARPU
continuously exceeding voice ARPU in 4Q10.
Smart Communications of the Philippines,
previously the operator with the highest data
revenue as a percentage of total revenue, saw a
further decline, due to heightened competition in
SMS space. Smart's percentage dropped from
51.3% in 4Q09 to 48.7% in 4Q10.
Mobile broadband subscriptions in China are
slowly taking up, with China Unicom's HSPA
subscriptions and China Telecom's EVDO Rev A
subscriptions totalling 12 million and 12.290 million
respectively by end-4Q10. Both operators are
expected to accelerate their 3G subscription takeup in 1H11.
Informa Telecoms and Media forecasts Japans
data revenue to grow to US$51.1 billion in 2015,
followed by China of US$50.7 billion, and
India of US$12.8 million.

Eastern Europe Data Market

HSPA drives mobile broadband growth in Eastern Europe.
Eastern Europe, Top 10 Mobile Operators by HSPA Subscribers, Q410

Mobile TeleSystems
T-Mobile (Hungary)
Orange (Romania)
Vodafone (Romania)

Mobile TeleSystems
VimpelCom (Russia)

P4 (Poland)
Orange (Poland)
Polska Telefonia

Polkomtel (Poland)
0

1000

2000

3000

4000

HASP Subscriber, thousands

Eastern Europe, Revenue Forecast, 2011 to 2015

Revenue, US$ million

1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000

Data

800,000

Voice

600,000

400,000
200,000
0
2011

2012

2013

2014

http://www.informatm.com/itmgcontent/icoms/reports/3000004726.xls

2015

HSPA subscription in the region increased by

6% y-o-y, which is predominantly driven by Poland
with its HSPA subscriptions reaching 11.8 million at
end-4Q10, representing 48% of the region's total
HSPA subscriptions at end-4Q10.
Polkomtel (Poland) and PTC (Poland) continued
to hold the highest HSPA subscriptions figures
in the region at over 3.5 million each.
Data as a percentage of revenue for Orange
Moldova appeared to be highest in the region
at 35.9% in Q410.
Poland and Russia accounted for 31.2% and
34% of Eastern Europe's total SMS traffic
respectively in 4Q10. Vimpelcom in Russia was the
leading operator in the region with around 8,150
million SMS sent by its subscribers in 4Q10 up from
7,100 million in 4Q09.
Between 4Q09 and 4Q10, the number of HSPA
subscriptions increased substantially by 6% from 23.2
to 24.6m in the region driven by increasing 3G-HSPA
coverage in mature markets unlimited promotions of
internet access offers, in addition to an increasing
range of USB sticks, modems and smartphones such
as the iPhone 4, the Samsung Galaxy S, the iPad, or
HTC wildfire on offer.
Informa Telecoms and Media forecasts Russias
data revenue to grow to US$11.024 billion in
2015, followed by Poland, which is expected to
grow to US$3.5 billion.

Western Europe Data Market

iPhone stimulates strong data revenue growth in Western Europe.
Western Europe, top 10 mobile operators by HSPA subscribers, 4Q2010
Telefnica (Spain)

Mobile broadband subscriptions continued to

grow in Western Europe, reaching almost 90
million subscriptions in 3Q10, up from 50 million in
3Q09. Strong growth in data devices over 2H10
continued with the launch of smartphones such as
the new iPhone 4 in both 2Q10 and 3Q10 in most
Western European markets.

The UK and Austria lead the way with data

revenue, with O2 UK and Mobilkom Austria
continued to increase the share of data revenues as
of service revenues at 41.3% and 44.6% in 4Q10
respectively, up from 39.6% and 38.9% in 4Q09.

Orange France continued to lead the region in

terms of data revenues, being the only operator to
breach the US$1.1 billion mark in 4Q10.

3 Ireland reported the highest data ARPU in the

region at US$16.5 in 4Q10.

Informa Telecoms and Media forecasts UKs data

revenue to grow to US$16.6 billion in 2015,
followed by France of US$13.3 billion, and
Germanys US$13.1 billion.

SFR (France)
Vodafone (Italy)
Vodafone D2 (Germany)
Vodafone (UK)
T-Mobile (Germany)
Orange (France)
Hutchison 3G (UK)
O2 (UK)
Everything Everywhere (UK)
0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

HSPA subscribers, in thousand

Western Europe, revenue forecast, 2011-2015

Revenue, US$ million
250,000
200,000
150,000

Data

Voice
100,000
50,000
0
2011

2012

2013

2014

http://www.informatm.com/itmgcontent/icoms/reports/3000004726.xls

2015

Middle East Data market

Saudi Arabia leads the way with data revenues at the end 4Q10.
Data Revenues by operator, 4Q10
200

Revenue, US$ million

180
160

Based on the operators tracked by Informa Telecoms

& Media, the average contribution of data to total
revenues in the Middle East at end 3Q10 was 8.8%

3G subscriptions in the region reached 16

million at end-4Q10, up from 12 million at end4Q09. Lebanon is also set to launch 3G services by
end 2Q11

Mobile broadband is expected to grow strongly in

Saudi Arabia - which had over 2.1 million mobile
broadband subscriptions at end-4Q10 - stimulated
by cheaper plans from operators and the availability of
affordable and attractive devices for accessing the
mobile Internet.

Saudi Arabia also lead the way in the region in terms

of mobile broadband subscriptions, with Etisalat and
STC ending 3Q10 with a mobile broadband
subscription base of 1.6 million and 1.4 million
respectively

Iran had the largest mobile data subscription base in

the region with 36.25 million GRPS users at end
3Q10. Iran had the largest mobile data subscription
base due to the fact that there is high demand for SMS
usage and TCI mobile subscribers need to subscribe to
GPRS & MMS in order to use SMS.

186
160

140
120

130

100
80
60

70

40
20

27

0
STC
(Saudi
Arabia)

Etihad
Etisalat
(Saudi
Arabia)

Etisalat
(UAE)

MTN
(Iran)

MTN
(Syria)

19

16

13

11

Du (UAE) Nawras Wataniya Omantel Batelco

(Oman) (Kuwait) (Oman) (Bahrain)

Data revenue as a percentage of service revenue by operator, 4Q10

Revenue, in percentage
25%
20%
20%
15%
13%

10%

12%

12%

11%

11%

11%

11%

11%

11%

5%

0%
MTN
(Iran)

Zain
Etihad
(Jordan) Etisalat
(Saudi
Arabia)

World Cellular Data Metrics

STC
(Saudi
Arabia)

Nawras Batelco
Zain
Zain
(Oman) (Bahrain) (Bahrain) (Kuwait)

MTN Wataniya
(Syria) (Kuwait)

Africa Data Market

Africa generated US$1.1 billion in data revenues over 3Q10, a 15% increase from 3Q09 data revenues.
8

African mobile broadband subscribers 3Q09-3Q10

Mobile broadband subscriptions in Africa are increasing

rapidly. Subscriptions went from 3,644,070 in 3Q09 to
6,781,112 in 3Q10, an 84% increase during the year. In
4Q10 Mobile broadband subscriptions reached 8.1 million.
This shows the dedication of the African market to stimulate
data usage. Recent developments such as Yu Kenya
launching Peperusha, a mobile chat and e-mail service for
users of first-generation handsets are efforts to increase data
usage in the continent. The service has enabled 1.6 million
subscribers to access chat and e-mail on SMS-capable
devices

South Africa remains the largest market by mobile

broadband subscriptions at almost 3 million in 4Q10,
accounting for over 45% of Africas mobile
broadband subscriptions.

Africa generated US$1.1 billion in data revenues over

3Q10, a 15% increase from 3Q09 data revenues. Nigeria has
overtaken South Africa as one of Africa's biggest data
revenue generators, with Nigeria generating US$56.7 million
and South Africa right behind with US$54.2 million. Faster 3G
technology has allowed users to consume more online
content and thus increasing the data segment. MTN has
invested aggressively into 3G because the size of the
handset population that can link with 3G technology makes it
feasible

Informa Telecoms and Media forecasts South Africas

data revenue to grow to US$6.1 billion in 2015, followed
by Nigeria, which is expected to grow to US$2.0
billion.

Millions

subscribers

7
6
5
4
3
2
1
3Q10

2Q10

1Q10

4Q09

Top mobile broadband markets, 4Q10

Runion

Ghana

Namibia

Botswana

Angola

Kenya

Egypt

Morocco

Nigeria

3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
South Africa

Subscriptions (thousands)

3Q09

Africa, revenue forecast, 2011-2015

Revenue, US$ million
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2011

Data
Voice

2012

2013

2014

http://www.informatm.com/itmgcontent/icoms/reports/3000004726.xls

2015

Americas Data Market

Radiomvil Dipsa has highest data revenues; Paraguay operators show highest share of data revenues
Revenue, in US$ million

900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

Data revenue by operator, 4Q10

285

280

268

242

174

130

124

104

Data revenue as a percentage of service revenues by operator,

4Q10

40%

3G subscriptions (WCDM and CDMA 1X EvDO) grew by 130% over the year to end 4Q10,
reaching 41.3 million, representing 5.2% of
the worlds 3G subscriptions.

LatAms total data revenues exceeded US$3,339

million at end 4Q2010 up from US$2,190 million at
in 4Q2009.

In 4Q10 data ARPU in Latam by operator

ranged from US$0.8 to was US$7.0. Data as a
% of service revenue by operator in a
number of markets in 4Q10 also ranged from 2%
of service revenues to 37% of service revenues.

4Q10 SMS traffic of the LatAM operators tracked in

WCDM came to 82,598 million, up from 63,151
million in 4Q09. SMS traffic of Telefonica Moviles
and Telecom Personal in Argentina and Radio Movil
dipsa accounted for 45% of the regions SMS traffic
in 4Q10.

Informa Telecoms and Media forecasts Brazils

mobile data markets to grow to US$9.2 billion in
2014, followed by Mexico, which is expected
to grow to US$6billion.

560

Revenue, in percentage

45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

836

37%

35%

34%

33%

33%

32%

http://www.informatm.com/itmgcontent/icoms/reports/3000004726.xls

25%

22%

21%

North America Data Market

Verizon Wireless remained as the dominant player in North Americas data market.
North America, top operators by data ARPU, 4Q10
Data ARPU, monthly US$

North American operators' data revenues

averaged 30% of service revenues in 4Q10.
Verizon Wireless had the highest data as a percent of
service revenues with 37.1%, followed closely by
AT&T with 35.7%.

Verizon's data ARPU remained the highest in

the region in 4Q10 with US$18.77, while Rogers
surpassed AT&T to be the second highest with
US$18.55.

Verizon had the highest non-SMS data ARPU in

North America with US$14.27 in 4Q10, while the
highest in Canada was Rogers Wireless with
US$12.80.

North America saw strong SMS traffic growth in

2H10, with the number of SMS received/sent
increased 23% y-o-y.

Verizon Wireless subscribers reported the

highest number of SMS in 2H10, up 8 billion from
the first half of the year to 363 billion. Verizon's MMS
traffic grew 22% y-o-y, while its SMS traffic grew
15%.

Informa Telecoms and Media forecasts USAs data

revenue to grow to US$108.5 billion in 2015,
followed by Canada which is expected to grow
to US$9.7 billion.

20.0
18.0
16.0

18.8

18.6

17.5
15.9

14.0

15.6

12.0

12.8

10.0

12.3

11.9

11.3

8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

Verizon
Rogers
AT&T
Telus
Wireless Wireless Mobility Mobility
(USA) (Canada) (USA) (Canada)

Sprint
Nextel
(USA)

T-Mobile
(USA)

US
Cincinnati
Bell
Cellular
Bell
Wireless
(USA)
Wireless Affiliates
(USA) (Canada)

North America, revenue forecast, 2011-2015

Revenue, US$ million
250,000
200,000
Data

150,000

Voice
100,000

50,000
0
2011

2012

2013

2014

http://www.informatm.com/itmgcontent/icoms/reports/3000004726.xls

2015

World Mobile Investors

China Telecom reported the greatest y-o-y growth in proportionate subscriptions (+86.5% ) driven by
subscriber growth in China.
Proportionate Subscriptions, Q4 10
Top Ten Companies by Year-on-Year Growth in Proportionate
Subscriptions, Q4 09-Q4 10
China Mobile CC
70%
Vodafone
60%
America Movil
50%
Telefonica SA

40%

Bharti Airtel

30%

China Unicom

20%

Singapore Telecom

10%

France Telecom

0%

Deutsche Telekom

Telenor
0

100

200

300

Africa

Americas

Asia Pacific

Europe: Western

Middle East

USA/Canada

400

500

Europe: Eastern

http://www.wcisplus.com/wcisplus/AnalystToolsPage.html#worldcellularinvestors

M&A activity
M&A in2H10

Transaction date

Region of target

Country of target

Target company

Acquirer

Jul 2010

Europe: Western

Belgium

Mobisud Belgium

Scarlet

100.00

N/A

Jul 2010

Europe: Western

Sweden

Spring Mobil

Tele2 Sweden

50.00

14

Aug 2010

Africa

Seychelles

Telecom Seychelles

Bharti Airtel

100.00

62

Aug 2010

Americas

Argentina

Telecom Personal

Telecom Italia

58.00

n/a

Jul 2010

Americas

Honduras

Celtel (Tigo)

MIC

100.00

n/a

Jul 2010

Americas

Paraguay

Hola Paraguay (Vox)

COPACO

100.00

Jul 2010

Americas

Brazil

Brasilcel NV (Vivo)

Telefonica S.A.

100.00

9,800

Sep 2010

Africa

Chad

Sotel

Mid Cost

60.00

n/a

Oct 2010

Europe: Western

Switzerland

TDC Switzerland AG

CCV Capital Partners

100.00

3,300

Oct 2010

Europe: Eastern

Russia

Comstar UTS

Mobile TeleSystems

9.00

n/a

http://www.wcisplus.com/wcisplus/AnalystToolsPage.html#worldcellularinvestors

Stake (%)

Price paid (US$ m)

M&A activity over 2H10

Select review of major equity and M&A activity over 2H10

Vodafone, in September 2010, sold its entire 3.27% stake in China Mobile as part of its plan to
divest minority holdings that it doesn't view as essential for its business.

Brazilian

telecom regulator Anatel approved, with conditions, Telefonicas purchase of 50%

Brazilian mobile operator, Vivo, for US$9.8 million in October 2010, from Portugal Telecom. After the
transaction Telefonica owns 100% of Vivo, while Portugal Telecom exits Vivo and later invests over
20% into the countrys fourth largest operator by subs, Oi.

In July 2010, Millicom and its local partner in Honduras have reached an agreement that gives

Millicom full control of Celtel. Under the revised shareholders' agreement, the local partner has
granted Millicom an unconditional call option for his 33% stake for the next five years. Millicom has
granted a put option for the same duration to the local partner in the event of a change of control of
Millicom.

Tele2 Sweden has acquires Full ownership of Swedish MVNO Spring Mobil from Swefour for
approximately SEK100 million (US$$12.7 million) in July 2010.

In Russia, MobileTelesystems increases its take in Comstar UTS by 9% in October 2010.

http://www.wcisplus.com/wcisplus/AnalystToolsPage.html#worldcellularinvestors

Operator performance indicators

4Q10 ARPU showed a y-o-y decline in most regions, among which Middle East during posted the
sharpest decline of -10.8% y-o-y at the end 4Q10. However, Asia Pacific showed a y-o-y increase of
12.1% at the end of 4Q10.
Average Blended ARPU by Region
60.00
50.00
40.00

30.00

4Q09

4Q10

20.00
10.00
0.00
Africa

Americas

Asia Pacific

Europe:
Eastern

Europe:
Western

Middle East USA/Canada

Lowest ARPU by operator, 4Q10

Highest operator ARPU by region, 4Q10

Blended
ARPU (US$)

Blended
ARPU (US$)

Region

Country

Operator

67.00

Asia Pacific

Bangladesh

PBTL

1.50

NTT DoCoMo

62.18

Asia Pacific

India

Unitech Wireless

2.20

Canada

Rogers Wireless Communications

60.93

Asia Pacific

Pakistan

Warid Pakistan

2.30

Asia Pacific

Japan

KDDI

60.36

Africa

Rwanda

Tigo Rwanda

2.33

USA/Canada

Canada

Telus Mobility

57.73

Asia Pacific

India

Reliance Communications

2.47

USA/Canada

Canada

MTS Mobility

57.67

Asia Pacific

Pakistan

Telenor Pakistan

2.54

Region

Country

Operator

Americas

Brazil

Nextel Telecomunicacoes

Asia Pacific

Japan

USA/Canada

http://www.wcisplus.com/wcisplus/pages/kpi/KpiLanding.html

Consolidated Operating group revenues

Over half of operating groups tracked by WCOB shows Bharti Airtel recorded the strongest y-o-y
growth in its earnings, with revenue jumped 57.6% y-o-y to US$3,386 million in 3Q10.
Top 10 operator groups by
revenue (US$ millions)

Q3 2009

Q4 2009

Q1 2010

Q2 2010

Q3 2010

AT&T

30,734

30,708

30,530

30,808

31,581

Verizon

27,265

27,091

26,591

26,773

26,484

Deutsche Telekom

23,241

23,983

20,177

20,038

21,223

Vodafone

18,088

18,853

16,657

17,454

17,940

China Mobile

16,723

18,352

16,006

17,856

18,475

France Telecom

16,347

17,045

13,984

14,431

15,818

Telefonica O2 Europe

12,948

12,924

10,335

10,967

11,809

NTT DoCoMo

11,333

12,216

9,963

12,690

12,714

Telecom Italia

9,538

10,102

8,183

8,786

9,082

America Movil

11,021

8,204

7,864

7,884

12,410

Top 10 operator groups by annual

revenue growth (%)

3Q09Revenue
(US$ m)

3Q10Revenue
(US$ m)

Annual growth
(%)

2,148.35

3,386.86

57.6%

963.31

1,267.28

31.6%

VimpelCom

2,276.00

2,824.40

24.1%

Singapore Telecom

2,852.16

3,406.05

19.4%

856.00

1,018.00

18.9%

Vodacom

1,844.38

2,143.30

16.2%

Q-tel

1,634.21

1,894.86

15.9%

SK Telecom

2,476.17

2,799.28

13.0%

America Movil

11,020.83

12,410.32

12.6%

NTT DoCoMo

11,332.55

12,713.76

12.2%

Bharti Airtel
Axiata

MIC

http://www.wcisplus.com/wcisplus/AnalystToolsPage.html#worldcellularoperatorbenchmarks

And finally, did you know? pt1

India added 19.0 million new subscriptions in 2H10, recording its highest net additions followed by Chinas 56.4 million,
and Brazils 18.3 million.

Asia-Pacific ranked first with 48.5% share of global subscription base, followed by Western Europes share of 10.0% and
Americas 10.7%. By end 4Q10, there were over 215.84 million subscriptions in the Middle East; a year-on-year growth of 21%. Iran
still had the largest share of subscriptions in the region by end 2010 ( 33.7%) and the largest share of net additions in the region
(49.9%). Saudi Arabia is the second largest market in the Middle East, ending 4Q10 with 45.6 million subscriptions

3G subscriptions in China continue to gain traction. China Mobile has maintained the highest 3G subscription market share, but
actual number of TD-SCDMA mobile users are limited as the operator includes fixed wireless terminals in its subscriber count,
which has inflated the overall numbers. China Unicom has maintained a healthy momentum of adding nearly one million 3G
subscriptions each month in 2H10, benefited from the mature WCDMA handset line-up and flagship devices such as the iPhone 4

23 of the 30 Eastern European countries had over 100% mobile penetration in 4Q10 (up from 20 in 4Q10). Uzbekistan was
the lowest penetrated market in the region at 75% in 4Q10.

4Q10 continued to mark, following on from 1Q10, that a non-Philippine operator recorded the highest data revenue as a
percentage of total revenue. Japan's Softbank ranked first with 54.1% of its ARPU being generated from data services, while
Smart Communications in the Philippines had 48.7% of its revenues generated from data services.

Informa Telecoms and Media forecasts Japans data revenue to grow to US$51.1 billion in 2015, followed by China of US$50.7
billion, and India of US$12.9 billion.

Bharti Airtel saw its 3Q10 total mobile revenues came in at INR126.95 (US$2.8) billion, of which INR38.91 billion was from Africa
and the remainder from India and South Asia. Bhartis mobile service revenue made up 83% of total revenue in 3Q10. Meanwhile,
Idea Cellular saw its revenue fall slightly from INR36.90 billion (US$832 million) in 2Q10 to INR36.89 billion in 3Q10. A decline in
the average realised rate per minute affected the operators 3Q10 revenue and EBITDA as 3Q10 is a period of marked subdued
seasonal demand in India.

And finally, did you know? pt2

In India in 3Q10 three new networks (by Aircel, Shyam and Unitech Wireless) were launched and one new operator
(Videocon) in India, which means that there are now nine to 12 competitors in each telecoms region. Etisalat DB Telecom
and Loop Telecom have conducted soft launches.

In 4Q10 Brazilian watchdog Anatel approved MVNO regulation to increase competition in the mobile market of
the country. Under the new rules companies interested in offering MVNO services must be headquartered in Brazil, with
most of the company shares owned by Brazilian nationals or domestic corporations.

America Movil started to merge its fixed and mobile operations over 2H10. Also, Nextel, which previously had only Iden
operations, started buying 3G licenses within a number of markets such as Peru, Chile, Mexico and Brazil.

Verizon (USA) plans to have nationwide LTE network built out in late 2013 to early 2014. Meanwhile, China Mobile
announced to spend CNY 1.5 billion to deploy TD-LTE trial networks in six Chinese cities, hoping to evolve to the nextgeneration technology as soon as possible to stay competitive. TD-LTE chipset and terminals are still in the R&D stage and
the operator expects more reliable TD-LTE chips will be available by 1H2011

Verizon (USA) plans to have an LTE nationwide network in the US in late 2013 to early 2014. In 2H10 US
operators Metro PCS and Verizon launched an LTE19/21MHz network and a LTE7/21MHz network in September 2010 and
December 2010 respectively. Meanwhile, in Sweden, Tele2 and Telenor launched a joint LTE venture named
Net4mobility. Net4Mobility launched its LTE 8/9/26MHz network in November 2010. Operators in Poland, Finland,
Denmark, Estonia and Japan launched LTE networks in either the 1800MHz, 2100MHz or the 2600MHz band over 2010.

Appendix

Operator Update

Licence Awards

Network Deployments

New operators in 2H10

New operators in2H10
Country
Angola
Congo
Malawi
Nigeria
Rwanda
South Africa
Bermuda
Bolivia
French West Indies
Mexico
Puerto Rico
Cambodia
India
India
India
India
Japan
Laos
Macau
Malaysia
Nepal
Nepal
New Zealand
Estonia
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Kirghizstan
Poland
Russia
Slovak Republic
Turkmenistan
Denmark
Finland
Germany
Greenland
Sweden
Sweden
Canada
Canada
USA
USA
USA

http://www.wcisplus.com/wcisplus/NetworksPage.html

Operator
Movicel
Equateur Telecom Congo
Bharti Airtel Malawi
Mobitel Nigeria
Tigo Rwanda
Cell C
Digicel Bermuda
NuevaTel
Digicel French West Indies
Iusacell Celular
T-Mobile Puerto Rico
Viettel Cambodia
Aircel/Loop Mobile/S Tel
BSNL/Reliance Communications
Shyam
Tata Teleservices/Videocon
NTT DoCoMo
Star Telecom
SmarTone
Y-Max
Ncell
Smart Telecom Nepal/STM Telecom
Two Degrees Mobile
EMT Estonia
A-Mobile
GSM Kazakhstan
Kar-Tel
Sky Mobile
Centernet/Mobyland
SkyLink
Telefonica O2 Slovak Republic
MTS-Turkmenistan
Telia Denmark
TeliaSonera Finland
Vodafone D2
TeleGreenland
Tele2 Sweden
Telenor Sweden
Mobilicity/Videotron
SaskTel Mobility
Cox Communications
Metro PCS
Verizon Wireless

Technology
GSM-900/W-CDMA-2100
GSM-900
W-CDMA-2100
WiMAX-Mobile-2300
W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-9/21/GSM-1800
W-CDMA-1900
W-CDMA-1900
W-CDMA-1900
GSM-1900
W-CDMA-2100(IV)
W-CDMA-2100
GSM-1800
W-CDMA-2100
CDMA-850
GSM-1800/W-CDMA-2100
LTE-2100
W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-2100
WiMAX-Mobile-2300
W-CDMA-2100
GSM-900 [WLL LM]
W-CDMA-2100
LTE-2600
W-CDMA-2100
WiMAX-Mobile-3500/W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-2100
LTE-1800
GSM-9/18
W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA-2100
LTE-2600
LTE-2600
LTE-8/26
W-CDMA-900
LTE-8/9/26
LTE-8/9/26
W-CDMA-2100(IV)
W-CDMA-8/19
CDMA-2100(IV)
LTE-19/21(IV)
LTE-7/21(IV)

Start Date
Dec 2010
Sep 2010
Sep 2010
Nov 2010
Aug 2010
Sep 2010
Sep 2010
Sep 2010
Dec 2010
Aug 2010
Sep 2010
Jul 2010
Aug 2010
Jul 2010
Dec 2010
Aug 2010
Dec 2010
Sep 2010
Jul 2010
Nov 2010
Sep 2010
Nov 2010
Aug 2010
Dec 2010
Jul 2010
Oct 2010
Dec 2010
Nov 2010
Sep 2010
Dec 2010
Aug 2010
Nov 2010
Dec 2010
Nov 2010
Dec 2010
Aug 2010
Nov 2010
Nov 2010
Nov 2010
Aug 2010
Nov 2010
Sep 2010
Dec 2010

New license awards and operator launches

New licences awarded in 2H10
Operator

Technology Award Date

Kenya

Orange Kenya

3G

Nov 2010

Mozambique

Movitel Mozambique

2G

Nov 2010

Nigeria

EMTS

3G

Dec 2010

Sierra Leone

Zain Sierra Leone

3G

Oct 2010

Tunisia

Tunisie Tlcom

3G

Sep 2010

Albania

Vodafone Albania

3G

Nov 2010

Armenia

K-Telecom

2.6GHz

Nov 2010

Estonia

Elisa Estonia

2.6GHz

Dec 2010

Estonia

EMT Estonia

2.6GHz

Dec 2010

Estonia

Tele2 Estonia

2.6GHz

Dec 2010

Latvia

Tele2 Latvia

2G

Sep 2010

UKraine

Astelit

2G

Oct 2010

Uzbekistan

UCell

2.6GHz

Jul 2010

Austria

Hutchison 3G Austria

2.6GHz

Sep 2010

Austria

mobilkom Austria

2.6GHz

Sep 2010

Austria

Orange Austria

2.6GHz

Sep 2010

Austria

T-Mobile Austria

2.6GHz

Sep 2010

Denmark

HI3G Denmark

Neutral

Oct 2010

Sweden

TeliaSonera Sweden

Neutral

Sep 2010

Number of live operators worldwide, 4Q09-4Q10

755

754

753

752

751
No of Live operators

Country

750

749

748

747

746

745

http://www.wcisplus.com/wcisplus/networks/LicenceList,$DirectLink_0.sdirect

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

Network deployments in 2H10

Region / Country

Network Name

Technology

Eastern Europe

Region / Country

Network Name

Technology

Western Europe

Estonia

EMT Estonia

LTE-2600

Denmark

Telia Denmark

LTE-2600

Georgia

A-Mobile

W-CDMA-2100

Finland

TeliaSonera Finland

LTE-2600

Kazakhstan

GSM Kazakhstan

WiMAX-Mobile-3500

Germany

Vodafone Germany

LTE-8/26

Kazakhstan

KCell

W-CDMA-2100

Greenland

TeleGreenland

W-CDMA-900

Kazakhstan

Beeline

W-CDMA-2100

Sweden

Net4Mobility

LTE-8/9/26

Kirghizstan

Beeline

W-CDMA-2100

Sweden

Net4Mobility

LTE-8/9/26

Poland

Wrodzinie

LTE-1800

Africa

Poland

Eutelia

LTE-1800

Angola

Movicel

GSM-900

Russia

SkyLink

GSM-9/18

Angola

Movicel

W-CDMA-2100

Slovak Republic

O2

W-CDMA-2100

Congo

Azur Congo

GSM-900

Turkmenistan

MTS

W-CDMA-2100

Malawi

Bharti Airtel Malawi

W-CDMA-2100

Nigeria

Mobitel Nigeria

WiMAX-Mobile-2300

North America
Canada

Mobilicity

W-CDMA-2100(IV)

Rwanda

Tigo Rwanda

W-CDMA-2100

Canada

Mobilicity

W-CDMA-2100(IV)

South Africa

Cell C

W-CDMA-9/21

Canada

SaskTel Mobility

W-CDMA-8/19

South Africa

8ta

GSM-1800

Canada

Videotron

W-CDMA-2100(IV)

Latin America

USA

Cox Communications

CDMA-2100(IV)

Bermuda

Digicel Bermuda

W-CDMA-1900

USA

Metro PCS

LTE-19/21(IV)

Bolivia

Viva

W-CDMA-1900

USA

Verizon Wireless

LTE-7/21(IV)

French West Indies

Digicel

W-CDMA-1900

Mexico

Unefon

GSM-1900

Puerto Rico

T-Mobile Puerto Rico

W-CDMA-2100(IV)

Asia Pacific
Cambodia

Metfone

W-CDMA-2100

India

Aircel Gujurat

GSM-1800

India

BSNL Jammu & Kashmir

W-CDMA-2100

India

Loop Mobile Haryana

GSM-1800

India

Reliance Communications

W-CDMA-2100

India

S Tel Assam

GSM-1800

India

S Tel North East

GSM-1800

India

MTS Gujarat

CDMA-850

India

Tata DoCoMo Rajasthan

GSM-1800

India

Videocon Andhra Pradesh

GSM-1800

Japan

NTT DoCoMo

LTE-2100

Laos

Star Telecom

W-CDMA-2100

Macau

SmarTone

W-CDMA-2100

Malaysia

Y-Max

WiMAX-Mobile-2300

Nepal

Ncell

W-CDMA-2100

Nepal

Smart Telecom Nepal

GSM-900 [WLL LM]

Nepal

STM Telecom

GSM-9/18 [WLL LM]

New Zealand

2degrees Mobile

W-CDMA-2100

http://www.wcisplus.com/wcisplus/networks/NetworkList,$DirectLink_0.sdirect