contact@claritycampaigns.

com
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To: House Majority PAC

From: John Hagner, Clarity Campaign Labs
Date: October 19, 2016
Subject: Emily Cain Leads in ME-02

A survey conducted October 10th and 11th, 2016 by Clarity Campaign Labs on behalf of House Majority
PAC shows that voters in Maines 2nd Congressional district are likely to elect Democrat Emily Cain, who
narrowly lost to incumbent Republican Bruce Poliquin last election, this November. The survey includes
932 responses, conducted by IVR calls to landlines and live operators to cellphones, with a margin of error
of +/- 3.21% at a 95% confidence interval.

Congressional Race with Leaners

50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

43%

47%

10%

Bruce Poliquin Emily Cain [D]

[R]

Unsure

ME-02 Presidential Support

50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

39%

39%

14%
7%

Donald
Trump

Hillary
Clinton

Other

Unsure

Emily Cain leads Bruce Poliquin by 4% in the race for Congress. Cain gets the support of 43% of the voters
in the district, compared to 39% for Poliquin. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean
toward supporting, both Cain and Poliquin add 4%, bringing the margin to 47% to 43%.

Emily Cains lead is in spite of the challenges in the national environment in this district. ME-2s single
electoral vote is up for grabs and Trump has demonstrated an interest in competing for it. He is tied with
Democratic nominee Hillary 39% Clinton, 39% Trump, with 14% going to other candidates and 7%
undecided. Cain is running 8% ahead of the top of the ticket, which is a testament to the connection shes
made with the districts voters.

Cain and Poliquin are both well-known to the voters in the district: roughly 90% of the districts voters
have an opinion on them. Emily Cains favorable rating is 38% and her unfavorable is 37%, while Bruce
Poliquin is less popular: 34% have a favorable opinion, while 43% of the district give him an unfavorable
rating. 16% and 15% of voters sampled have neutral opinions with Cain and Poliquin, respectively.

Cain gets more votes from self-identified Republicans than Poliquin gets from self-identified Democrats.
Cain leads 84%-10% among Democrats, and Poliquin leads 80%-13% with Republicans. The two are tied
among independents, with 43% support for each.

October 19, 2016

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ME-02 Congressional Support by Party

90%
80%

Bruce Poliquin [R]

84%

80%

Emily Cain [D]

Unsure

70%
60%

43%

50%

43%

40%
30%
20%

13%

10%
0%

Republican

6%

10%

6%
Democrat

14%

Independent

Cain benefits from a relatively large gender gap,
Congressional Support by Gender
winning 52% of women to 38% for Poliquin.
52%
Poliquin has a smaller lead among men, 50%- 60%
50%
41%, but women make up a strong majority of 50%
41%
38%
voters in this district.
40%

In summary, Emily Cain is strongly positioned to 30%
defeat Bruce Poliquin and come to Congress, 20%
10%
8%
regardless of what happens in the Presidential 10%
race in Maine. Her crossover appeal and name
0%
identification make her a strong candidate.
Female
Male

Bruce Poliquin [R]
Emily Cain [D]
Unsure


The poll was conducted by Clarity Campaign Labs, using a sample pulled from the TargetSmart voter file.
Responses were weighted using turnout scores to reflect the likely voting electorate in Maines 2nd
Congressional District.

October 19, 2016

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