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Trip Generation Models Applied &

Introduction to Trip Distribution
USP 587: Introduction to Travel
Demand Modeling
Winter 2010
Instructor: John Gliebe

Trip Generation Review
„

Trip Production
„

„

Home end of HB
trip or origin of
NHB trip.

Trip Attraction
„

1 HBW
Attraction

*

*

1 HBO
Production

Non-home end of
HB trip or
destination of
NHB trip.

Home

*

1 HBO
Attraction

1 HBW
Production

*

Work

1 NHBW
Production

*

*

1 NHBW
Attraction

Shop

Example of Alternative Ways
to Classify Trips (Oahu MPO)

Trip Attraction Rates and Variables (Oahu MPO) .

Area Type Definitions (Oahu MPO) .

Balancing Productions and Attractions (Oahu MPO) .

g. Cross-class/MCA Often not very statistically robust--need establishment surveys. 25 years from now ..Trip Attraction Models „ Estimate from household survey using information on land use. population and employment as explanatory variables „ „ „ Linear. e. Non-linear regression. which are rare Why not use ITE trip generation rates? „ „ Many land use types give vehicle trips only For local impact studies--not designed for regional use „ „ „ Very specific land use types difficult to maintain at a regional level Computationally difficult to process Don’t forecast very specific land use types for distant time horizons.

Trip Attraction Rates (Oahu MPO) .

Trip Distribution in Classical 4-Step Process Transportation System Land Use / Activity System Trip (End) Generation Travel Service Trip Distribution/Destination Choice Mode Choice O-D LOS Link LOS Link Volume Network Assignment .

Skims „ „ Skims are full matrices of level-of-service information from production to attraction TAZs (Usually Production -> Attraction format) Level-of-service information can include: „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ Highway time Distance Tolls Transit in-vehicle time Transit access/egress time Transit Fare Waiting Time Number of transfers Terminal time (accounts for intrazonal walking. parking time) .

or Observed congested network speeds. or Through feedback .Skims „ „ Tautology.“Chicken and the Egg” Congested time comes from demand. but demand is based on congestion…where does initial demand come from? „ „ „ Previous model runs.

Trip Distribution „ „ Trip Distribution Models Link Trip Ends (Productions and Attractions) into Trip Flows. Model Types: „ „ „ Growth Factor Methods Gravity Model Disaggregate Destination Choice Model .

by TAZ Travel time/cost between zones ~ skims! A calibrated trip distribution model Output „ Trip matrix in production->attraction format for the trip purpose and market segment (if market segmentation is used) .Trip Distribution „ Inputs „ „ „ „ Trip productions and attractions.

j = Pi = Aj = Fi.j = the number of trips between zone i and zone j the trip productions for zone i the trip attractions for zone j an accessibility factor associated with the measure of travel impedance from zone i to zone j the socio-economic or physically related factor for all movements between zone i and zone j . j * Ki .The Gravity Model Ti . j ) j where: Ti. j 1 ∑(A * F j i. j * Ki . j = Pi * Aj * Fi .j = Ki.

The Gravity Model „ „ „ „ What are Friction factors ?? F-factors relate the cost of travel to the propensity to travel F-factors are higher for zones that are closer together. the greater their interaction . and lower for zones that are further apart Newton’s Law of Gravity: The closer two objects are to each other.

The Gravity Model What do F-Factors look like? Friction Factors Propensity Weight „ 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Trips 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 Distance 15 17 19 21 .

The Gravity Model „ „ „ „ What are K-Factors? K-Factors account for all of the variables that F-factors and cost can’t account for. Physical characteristics like bridge crossings Socio-economic characteristics like highincome workers working in downtown office buildings .

. n . . . n Cost Matrix (i. n n Production Attraction TAZ TAZ 1 2 3 . . n Or Continuous Function Attraction TAZ Propensity Matrix . . 3 . . .e. travel time) & Production TAZ = . .Gravity Model Implementation First Calculate Propensity Matrix by using a function that relates cost to F-factors Cost F-Factor 0-1 9999 1 1-2 8764 1 2 2-3 7981 2 3 . . .

Gravity Model Implementation Then balance the propensity matrix to trip productions and attractions from trip generation Production TAZ Attraction TAZ 1 2 3 . . n 1 Propensity Matrix 2 3 Matrix Balancing ( Cost * FFactors ) . . Row and Column Totals = Trips From Trip Generation n Trip Matrix . n Production TAZ 1 2 3 . . . . . . . n Attraction TAZ 1 2 3 .

a.Iterative Proportional Fitting „ „ Matrix Balancing. Iterative Proportional Fitting a.k.a.a.k.a. BiProportional Fitting a. Fratar Method to ‘fit’ a ‘seed’ matrix to a set of target row and column totals.k. The final ‘balanced’ matrix resembles the seed matrix as much as possible while still matching the targets! .

/ / = = / = / = . .Iterative Proportional Fitting Iteration 0: 1 2 3 . n Row Targets Row Row Totals Balancing Coefficients Calculate row coefficients = row targets divided by actual row totals . Seed Matrix . n 1 2 3 . .

Iterative Proportional Fitting Iteration 1: 1 2 3 . n 1 2 3 . . . Seed Matrix * Row Balancing Coefficients n / / / / = = = = Column Targets Column Totals Column Coefficients Calculate column coefficients = column targets divided by column totals of { seed matrix * row coefficients } . . .

Iterative Proportional Fitting Iteration 2: 1 2 3 . . n Iteration 1 Matrix * Column Coefficients Row Targets / / = = / = / = Row Row Totals Balancing Coefficients Calculate new row coefficients = row targets divided by row totals {iteration 1 matrix * column coefficients } . . . n 1 2 3 . .

n 1 2 3 . . Iteration 2 Matrix * Row Balancing Coefficients n / / / / = = = = Column Targets Column Totals Column Totals Calculate new column coefficients = column targets divided by column totals of { iteration 2 matrix * row coefficients } . . . .Iterative Proportional Fitting Iteration 3: 1 2 3 .

until the maximum difference between any row or column total and the target for that row or column total is below some threshold … Note: Sum of target row totals MUST EQUAL sum of target column totals Guaranteed convergence… unless you have too many empty (zero) cells in your seed matrix .Iterative Proportional Fitting „ „ „ And so on.

Gravity Model Implementation „ „ „ „ Seed matrix = Propensity Matrix Row Totals = Trip Productions Column Totals = Trip Attractions Balanced Matrix = Trip Matrix (in Production->Attraction Format) .

983 Non-Home-Based Non- 15.992 Home-Based Social\Re 15.259 5.942 -0.352 0.Summary Statistics Comparison of Estimated and Observed Trip Length Distributions.97 0.986 Home-Based Shop 14.568 6.997 9.726 9.49 1.03 0.854 0.316 0.180 7.989 15.719 6.999 7.430 -1.998 8.998 8.05 .322 0.60 15.352 7.45 14.997 6.701 -0.664 -0.397 -0.850 0.688 0.803 0.750 0.07 0. Non-Work T rip Purposes Standard Deviation of Trip Length Mean Trip Length Trip Purpose Observed Estimated Estimated Observed Observed Estimated Difference Coincidence of Distribution Ratio Estimated v Observed District Interchange Comparison R2 Value Home-Based School 13.003 6.13 13.851 0.078 0.10 16.989 Non-Home-Based Work 17.09 0.986 Home-Based Other 16.867 0.01 16.833 0.854 0.56 0.

Observed 0.04 0.Trip Length Frequency Distribution School Trip Length Frequency Distribution Estimated vs.06 Estimated 0.1 0.08 Observed 0.16 0.12 .14 0.02 Trave l Tim e (m in) 37 33 30 27 24 21 18 15 12 9 0 6 Frequency 0.

District Interchanges School Observed v Estimated District Interchanges Sum of EST_TRPADIST PDIST 1 2 3 4 1 Est 545 133 23 Obs 0 0 0 2 Est 4102 52171 3387 Obs 2261 48786 3425 3 Est 1091 4769 61281 Obs 3104 2928 71008 4 Est 813 1676 7781 Obs 1878 0 7138 5 Est 197 3833 589 Obs 0 0 0 6 Est 269 790 4802 Obs 706 0 1944 7 Est 620 1394 1765 Obs 0 461 0 8 Est 817 1589 476 Obs 0 2020 0 9 Est 517 1236 604 Obs 0 0 0 10 Est 8638 5983 1891 Obs 6645 17702 830 11 Est 656 667 438 Obs 671 1472 0 12 Est 682 543 343 Obs 2824 2335 0 13 Est 733 922 963 Obs 1590 0 0 Total Est 19679 75704 84345 Obs 19679 75704 84345 5 2 0 262 0 1501 0 87939 95929 83 0 2183 0 2153 0 89 0 233 0 271 0 168 0 123 0 921 0 95929 95929 6 8 0 8835 11644 1969 1100 1693 2956 23654 31644 5589 3045 8480 3882 792 0 1028 0 891 0 369 0 195 0 769 0 54271 54271 7 4 0 1437 0 6372 573 3288 5346 1341 1709 33135 42639 4518 1447 198 0 322 0 390 0 164 0 108 0 439 0 51714 51714 8 11 0 1925 0 1484 671 6224 2216 2716 0 3041 2589 91981 108906 902 0 1568 0 1373 0 666 0 400 0 2091 0 114382 114382 9 15 0 990 0 294 0 337 0 199 0 110 0 406 0 12241 18169 1948 2820 9047 7035 1996 0 133 0 306 0 28024 28024 10 5 0 951 0 299 0 597 0 260 0 170 0 601 0 2901 4363 26532 31970 876 0 1273 0 186 0 1683 0 36333 36333 11 12 13 Grand Total 130 7 13 8 902 0 0 0 902 902 1499 532 457 569 77118 2920 4886 3196 0 77118 624 326 308 522 80841 1457 0 0 0 80841 681 915 769 2747 115460 0 0 0 0 115463 127 136 70 146 33353 0 0 0 0 33353 183 182 140 330 50923 0 0 0 0 50923 481 619 430 1250 114697 0 0 0 0 114696 1205 2656 240 446 24552 0 0 0 0 24552 437 3456 516 1860 40255 1662 3263 0 540 40255 53890 7400 5076 1774 97500 57714 939 3475 3160 97500 5419 73080 6574 2727 94197 4155 78505 8614 780 94197 2837 5452 40031 4091 55124 540 8237 39338 1850 55124 934 6057 4921 124219 144958 0 4988 4922 133457 144957 68448 100818 59545 140689 929881 68448 100818 59545 140689 929881 .

N. 0.76 3.28 N.00 5 N.A.A.A.25 0.63 0.21 N.A. N. 0.47 N.00 12 0.A. N.A.A.30 0. 11 N.00 1. N.A.46 N.00 1.A.A.12 2.92 0.A.14 N.A.A.A.A.66 1.75 0. N.00 1.43 N. N.00 7 N.A. 3.A.A. N.00 13 0. N. N.A.District Interchanges School T rip Estimated/Observed PDIST Total ADIST 1 1 N. N. 1.62 2. 0.02 2.21 1.A.00 1.A. N. 0. N.00 6 0. N.00 9 N.A.A.84 0.A. 1.A. 2 N. N.78 N.29 N. N.A.98 0. N.A.A. N.A.07 0.06 N.A. N.A. N.A.A. 1.A.57 0.A.A.43 N.A.A.A.93 0.A. N.11 0.00 8 N.A. N. 1.69 0.56 1. 1.00 3 0.A.66 N.A. 0. N.00 2 1.A.A. N.A.00 1.A.17 N.A. N. N.00 1. 1. N.00 1.00 4 0.88 1.84 N.A. N. N. 9 N. 1.24 0.A.83 0.A.35 1. 6 N.00 0. N.00 1. N.99 N.A.A.30 0.76 N. 1.A. N. N.A.00 1. 0.A.A.34 2.A. N.A. 0. N.A.A.79 11.00 .A. N.A. N.A. 1.A. N.A.A. 1.A. N.A. N.93 7.00 11 0.A.A.A.A. 10 N. 1.A. N.00 1.A.A.A.93 1. N. 0.00 10 1.12 0.00 1.50 1. 3 N. N.A.A.A. N.23 N.A.09 0. N. N. N. 2.A. N.18 3. N.A.A.01 Grand Total 1. N. 1. 7 N.44 1.81 1.21 1. 3.38 N. 12 13 N.86 N. N. N.A.A.A. N.A.46 0.A.02 N.A.A.A.45 N.51 0.A.A. N.79 N.A. 8 N.00 1. 5.A.A.A. 5 N. N. N.00 1. 1. N. N.A.A.A. N.A. N. N.A. N. N. N. N.78 1.A. N. N.A. N. 0.00 1. 2.26 1. 4 N.81 N.67 0.

Advanced Topics „ Composite Impedance „ „ „ „ Considers transit accessibility Results in a lower impedance value for transit-accessible zones Results in a higher impedance value for zones with no transit accessibility Used for all Home-Based Work trips .

Advanced Topics „ Composite Impedance. harmonic mean where: Cij hij tij f Cij = 1 1 f + hij ti j impedance between zone i and zone j highway travel time transit time weight .

Advanced Topics „ „ Logsum from mode choice model as the measurement of accessibility by ALL modes of transportation Discrete Choice Models… .