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# King Saud University, Petroleum Engineering Department, P.O.

Box 800, Riyadh 11421, Saudi Arabia
Forecasting the Future Production Performance for Depletion Drive Reservoirs
Dr. Ahmed A. Gawish
Abstract
Many methods are used for forecasting original hydrocarbon (H.C.) in place. Material
balance equation (MBE) provides performance of the reservoirs as a function of average
reservoir pressure. Combining the two concepts of (MBE) and Darcy's equation would
enable to predict the future production performance of reservoir as a function of time.
The future performance of reservoir is forecasted in the two stages: the first one is to
predict cumulative hydrocarbon (H.C.) production as a function of declining reservoir
pressure, and the second stage of prediction is the time-production phase. A spreadsheet
program is designed to calculate the parameters that indicate the reservoir future
production performance.. Our program is easy, fast, and accurate. The output from our
program includes charts and tables.
Introduction
MBE in its various mathematical forms is designed to provide estimates of the initial
H.C. in place, water influx (We), and size of gas cap (m). Using MBE to predict the
reservoir future performance requires two relations. The first is the equation of producing
(instantaneous) gas-oil ratio, and the second relation is the equation for relating saturation
to cumulative oil production. There are four methodologies that are used to estimate the
future reservoir performance. These are Tracy's, Muskat's, Schilthuis's and Tamer's.
The time required for production can be calculated by applying the inflow performance
relation (IPR) in conjunction with the MBE. Also the time can be estimated by using a
combination between the MBE, IPR, and a vertical lift performance (VLP) or at the
.
minimum bottom hole flowing pressure. (Pwf).
Literature Bac~round
Kenneth W. et al described a computer model for production
It was developed and used to select the ratio of gas to oil
separator pressure(GOSP) in a series of oil fields in order to
the gas or the oil production. The model is easy to construct
conditions; and the response is instantaneous.

forecasting of oil and gas.
produced by each gas-oil
maximize/minimize either

Chester R.2 used the plotting of the true ultimate oil recovery against time on a semilogarithmicscale. A clear 41- year downwardlineartrend emerges.The gravity-drainage
mechanismis one of the most efficient ways of producing an oil field. Unfortunately,
most oil fields can't be produced economicallyunder free-fallgravity alone becausethe
effective oil permeability is too low, the oil viscosity is too high or the dip of the
formation is too small. An engineer must calculate gravity-drainage recovery as a
.

function of time. In 1978 Herman Dykstra3 studied and broadened the application of
Cardwell and Person's method of predicting oil recovery under free-fall gravity drainage
recovery, and he is expanded the account for residual oil saturation.
Kabir et al4 used an analytical approach for forecasting oil well's rate behavior rapidly for
a well of any orientation (vertical or horizontal) and located it in various drainage
configurations.

Differentmaterial-balancemethods, and the communicatingreservoir model (CRi are
used. The model is able to estimate the reservoir size much more accurately than the
(354)
.

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. solution GOR. . temperature. and water) in the reservoir is defined as the volume of the fluid divided by the pore volume of reservoir. 'I" (. Instantaneous Gas-Oil Ratio (GaR): The Produced gas-oil ratio (GOR) at any particular time is the ratio of standard cubic feet of total gas being produced at any time to the stock-tank barrels of oil being produced at that same time.N P2') 2 4 or = (GOR)avg. The (CR) model can be implemented with a simple spreadsheet program. and cumulative GOR. S . gas.\ 'I" '4 J.!'J 4". The correlation can be used to predict roughly the effects of changes in pressure.!!!.Jo/3o () Krg I K.t!Np The reservoir fluids saturation equations The saturation of reservoir fluids (oil.J-.for a wide range of injected gases compositions.t!Np 5 :. (Sorrn). The advantage of this approach is that it has the characteristics of both the injected gas and crude oil included in the correlation.\ <J \j.1"::"'-). The correlation is based on the representation of the chemical and physical properties of the crude oil and the injected gas through solubility parameters (8).1 .Jg/3g There are three types of gas-oil ratios. Rp where: G 2 R =-L P NP N.PI' '\ . and pressure conditions./.i).. N" t!Gp = J(GOR)dN p N" Between NPI and NP2.s:J\ ~J.the above equation can be approximate to: uA G p t!Gp -.r. .plot method. instantaneous GOR. Gp = J (GOR)dN 3 p 0 The incremental cumulative gas produced. and 01 P. temperature.conventional p/z..7.o f.. Gp = "J)GOR)avg.'.. crude oils.. or injected gas composition on residual oil saturation.rJ1 <.i.V. = -.:J.. GOR = Rso + f. (Rs).\ <. (355) 'I' .. A new correlation was developed that can be used to predict miscible or near-miscible residual oil saturation6. NfJ ..all ) j!. This empirical correlation should have utility in screening studies as a simple means to forecast residual oil saturations as measured in coreflood tests. in contrast to correlations based solely on the properties of the injected gas.GORl+GOR2 (N P I .

:. Initial oil-in-place (N).. Tracy's method.J.8: ...I. The reservoir PVT data must be available in order to predict the primary recovery performance of a depletion-drive reservoir in terms of Npand Gp. . Tracy's method is only one.RsPg II (Po-PO. All The techniques that are used to predict the future performance of a reservoir are based on combining the appropriate MBE.i).S. that we will study through this research. Then. The methodoIo!!V of Tracv's : Tracy's suggests that the general MBE can be rearranged and expressed in terms of two functions ofPVT variables for depletion drive reservoir without water influx: N =N p cI>0 + Gp cI>g where: cI> 0 = 10 Po.Jo\ <J 1»-1 r.J!yS'i\ '\. Initial fluid saturations. Krg = (GOR .. There are several techniques that were specificalIy developed to predict the performance of the solution-gas-drive reservoirs inc1uding7. . = 1. Schilthuis's.R. RelativepermeabilityData.. '4 ). . Muskat's method. (..\ . These data are: . 7 Sg =1-So -S.\. Hydrocarbon PVT.rJ1 r. .r:JIJ4~1 A-. The calculations are repeated at a series of assumed reservoir pressure drops. S =(N-Np)*Po 0 6 NPoi I-S.)(/-lgPg) Kro /-loPo K And then plotting the -. Kg = a * e b*S...r--J.!! versus Sg on a semi-log paper to find slope (a) and the Kro intercept (b). .}+(RSi-Rs)Pg (356) y . From Equation (1) 8 :. Ko 9 The equation gives a straight line on a semilog plot has a slope (b) and an intercept (a).so.i~I ) j..j!.. with the instantaneous GOR using a proper saturation equation... Tamer's method. .

/.+D.s:J...Calculate the values of the PVT functions <I> 0 and <I>g.. at Sg.. 10. If not within the tolerance.Np(GOR)ovg 12. a final check on the accuracy of the prediction should be made on the MBE..Compare the estimated GOR in step (3) with the calculated GOR in step (9).. +D. '4 J~'J 1.= <I> g 12 f3g (130 . --17 ---- Gp =G.}jil ..r-).Calculate the cumulative gas production.Gp = (GOR) ovgM1 p 14 Tracy suggested the following alternative technique for solving equation (13): 1.. <I>g) ---------------- M1 13 0 p <I>0 + (GOR)avg <I>g D. ) + (R . If the values are within acceptable tolerance. 4.Calculate the average instantaneous GOR GOR = GORassum. ~..Np 16 7.r'~' <. Kro 9.J""'11 . or: (357) T .(N. (. ... . 2 15 5. Np =N. 3.Calculate the incremental oil production.Y-.. 11.13 .Obtain relative permeability ratio --'!.Calculate the oil and gas saturations at selected average reservoir pressure by using equations (6..JrJl <. proceed to next step. 6.o".Pi" .Estimate the GOR at assumed reservoir pressure from PVT data.Select an average reservoir pressure 2..Since results of the calculations are based on 1 STB of oil initially in place. and 7).Calculate the instantaneous GOR from equation (1). .+ Rso) . set the estimated GOR equal to the calculated GOR and repeat the calculation from step (2).R )13 01 Sf S g =1.1Np from equation (13). K 8.Calculate cumulative oil production (Np). <I>+ G..

by: M= ~ 21 p (Qo)T 7. Reservoir Performance relatioe: to Time With the average reservoir pressure within the interval..472r 1.Plot the predicted cumulative oil production Np as a function of average reservoir pressure (P). Le. . the Vogel correlation in equation (19)8 or any other two phase correlations can be used for the calculation of the well (IPR).roll } j!.:r.~I 'i )~I 'i.Using the minimum bottom-hole flowing pressure (Pwf)min. Finally production rate and cumulative production versus time can be established.\.+S] rw 20 The following methodology can be employed to correlate the predicted cumulative field production with time (t): 1. 8* 141.:. 5.determine the total field flow rate (Qoh.. 4.>I ~ .Repeat the above steps and calculate the total time to reach an average reservoir pressure (P) by: ~ t=LM 22 Spreadsheet Program (358) y . 2 ~ = 1.11) ""'1.."... 6.Calculate the time (~t) required for the incremental oil production ~Np during the first pressure drop interval.r. ) Qornax[ Qrnax=..1 .0. 2. ) ] KohP 0..Using the minimum (Pwf).:.N p ct> 0 + Gp ct>g =1:t tolerance 18 13.8 Pwf ( P..Calculate the oil flow rate of the entire field by taking the summation of the flow rates (composite IPR).0.2 /3oPo[In !.J.determine the field total oil flow rate (Qoh.. Combination with (VLP) will lead to the well production rate.2 Pwf . (.Repeat the calculation from step (I).SJ1 :L.. .r->i. 19 ( P..Select a future average reservoir pressure (P) and determine the future IPR for each well in field....Construct the IPR curve for each well in the field at the initial average reservoir pressure pO. 3. from (po) to (P).4).pi \ 'I ..

1690476 830 0. 3-Data output The data comes out from our program.43 0. All these data are shown in appendices (A. The relative permeability for oil and gas is calculated as a straight line to determine the slope and intercept. P SCF{STB PSI BBljSTB BBljSCF SCF{STB 840 4350 1.642458 0.36 0.:1-.5 0.1 Np *N. j1.007070887 0.1 . Increment oil and gas production are found from equations 13 and 14 and its cumulative.4235294 0.rJ1 ~rUl j.\ T''4 J.)''.00078 730 22.006924333 0. These calculations include <poand <pgat each pressure value from equations 11 and 12. A table for all the results is also available in our program. and oil and gas viscosity as function in reservoir pressure.00069 840 840 840 4150 1. STB . B.. well bore radius are available for reservoir. gas formation volume factor. Our program is easy for forecasting the future production performance of a depleted reservoir.pi \' . (Np and Gp) are calculated by using equation 16 and 17.47619 0.00071 820 199.01 3656 0. reservoir thickness. I-Data in File The data file contains PVT properties such as oil formation volume factor.002943031 0.0217877 2441. The rate of oil production (Qo) and oil produced (Np) at future times are available in our program also.5 0.. Table (1) The Results of The Program. GORass.577181 0. solution gas oil ratio. a program file. and C) 2-Program File The program file includes all calculations. We use an alteration method to find the right assuming gas oil ratio.).0259446 6672 3352 1.0119493 4153 3750 1.00085 640 9.345 0.1) f.119048 0.0440476 770 0.03201 1101119 GOR". The final check on the accuracy of the prediction is calculated by using equation 18. reservoir permeability for oil. T' (.0188737 5367 3550 1.0135906 3023. <iNp Continuos Table (1) So S9 Fraction Fraction Ratio Ratio SCF{STB SCF 840 (359) T . STB GOR".u.00074 770 49. Inflow relationship (IPR) at future reservoir pressure. Can be summarized in many relations as: The oil and gas relative permeability.'.0060654 0..395 0. Also oil and gas relative permeability data. The average gas oil ratio (Rav)and solution gas oil ratio (R.009006309 0. Calculate the oil saturation from equation 6 and also gas saturation from equation 7.L <iGp Gp R Np'<I>o+Gp'C1>9 5CF SCF{STB STB o 9 R <1>0 <1>g dimensionless STB{5CF SCF{STB *N.1".38 0.. and a output file. It can be made easy in our program.42 0.r:JIJ. The oil and gas produce (Npand Gp) for each reservoir forecasting pressure.002943 770 3950 1.J ~I ~).00081 680 13.The spreadsheet program consists of three files: a data file... Calculate the Ravfrom equation 1. reservoir drainage radius. ..SJ1 ~.

00783. The results are shown in Fig.r.489189 1.999985129 0.904912 26.062683481 0..} j11 . ~ ..0208309 67 3023.3452 0. From our program we can know the amount of oil and gas production in the future.025761236 74 3656. AT this minimum bottom hole flowing pressure we can draw a horizontal line parallel to x-axis.840 0.442716 1 0. (2) shows the relation between solution gas oil ratio (Rs) and the average gas oil ratio Ravcalculated against reservoir pressure.I:AI ~ .. So the design of surface facilities to handle the productions becomes more suitable and economical. All IPR curves are parallel to each other.!pI \ '\.0252927 0.282485 2441..660217 3023.637316519 0.9348577 9.0158574 61 2441.3775 0..0372252 0.6747073 0.~I <. 17807009 69.377732 47.. to keep the reservoir pressure constant. The intercept IPR curves with y-axis gave the average reservoir pressure. The Ravis increasing to a maximum value of about 3656 SCF/STB at reservoir pressure 3352 psia.000029671 Results and Discussion The oil and Gas relative permeability Fig.0515379 0.6930592 0.0126316 56 770 6. Inflow Performance Relationship (lPR) The IPR describes the two phase flow in porous medium by using Vogel equation at any average reservoir pressure. (1) shows the relation between the ratio of gas and oil relative permeability on a semi log-scale against gas saturation as straight line we found the slope of the line equal 19.489189 22.IIJ 4~1 L. The Oil and Gas Recoverv The amount of hydrocarbon can be recovered at any forecasting reservoir pressure and can be easily calculated as shown in Fig. The solution 2as oil ratio and avera2e 2as oil ratio Fig. The well potential decreases with the decrease in reservoir pressure.999981516 0. (360) y .3775737 770 2.? ~\ ..442716 830 1 0.3775 16..? ). The IPR is established by plotting the gross flow rate at different values of bottom hole flowing pressure.\.6627748 0.. or to compensate the pressure drop due to production. <4J.3452 21.0089032 53 830 2. (3). .06 and intercept equal 0..83828694 3656. (. This line will cross the different IPR's then go down to x-axis and find the value of gross flow rate. Also may be the reservoir needs an artificial lift or second recovery by water flooding or gas injection.. The results are used in the program to calculate (Rav).0069408 0.rJ1 <.:tr).6484621 0. Forecastin2 Production Rate The minimum bottom hole flowing pressure is enough to lift the hydrocarbon from the bottom of the well to the surface facilities (flow line and separators). The total amount of oil and gas (Np and Gp) recovered will increase with the decreasing reservoir pressure.

AI-Mishari :(A Computer Model for Production Forecasting of Oil and Gas) SPE paper 12230.00071 0.r-J. :(Correlation and Prediction of Residual Oil Saturation for Gas-InjectedEnhanced Oil-Recovery Processes) SPE paper 35425.-Economides:(petroleum Production System). DR :(An Analytic Simulator for Rapid Forecasting Rate Behavior of Oil Wells) SPE Paper 36725.395 6e.42 1. Forecastin!! oroduction and recoverv at any future reservoir time The time required (~T) for the increment oil recovery (~p) during the first pressure drop interval from 4350 to 4150 is equal to (10 day).Chester R. Conclusions I-We designed a spreadsheet computer program to calculate the forecasting oil production by Tracy method..M./. :(Forecasting Ultimate Oil Recovery) SPE paper 4261. Texas.Repeat the above steps and calculate the total time(t)to reach an average reservoir pressure equal to 3352 psia. and C.Combination between material balance equation (Tracy method) and the two phase flow through porous medium (Vogel equation)..David A.Herman Dykstra: (The prediction of Oil Recovery by Gravity Drainage) SPE paper 6548..j!.43 1. Appendix (A) PVT Data P. References: 1 . (. then the forecasting oil flow rate becomes known.~I 4.r. and Abraham S.00074 Rs. fast. 2.C. BBUSTB 1. Ainley. we can easily to find the right forecasting oil production rate. C. BBUSCF 0.~\ ~ .. 4. 6 . we found that it is equal to (335. see fig. psia 4350 4150 3950 60. which can be used to forecast oil production for any data to depletion drive reservoir by Tracy method.P! "-. andC). 2 .Our program can work easily.~\'iJrI' roll . Turaiki.Tarek Ahmed :(Reservoir Engineering Handbook) Gulf Publishing Company... E. 2000 8 . D. (5). B.A.After the forecasting of the gross flow rate becomes known. 5 .Kabir.lIJ"..00069 0.Kenneth W. Economides. '4h.S. 3... See Fig. solution gas.}j1\ .Lange.MJ. 3 .... like the relative permeability data. 4 . .Our program can easily respond to the changes in all data as in appendices (A. Techniques to Decline Analysis and Forecasting of Gas Wells) SPE paper 16936. Houston.A. 1994. Saad A. and reservoir properties. and accurately. SCF/STB 840 820 770 (361) T. and water cut is available.E. formation volume factors for oil and gas. 7.23 day). and Brown. (4). Payne: (Material-Balance Calculations in Tight-Gas Reservoirs: The Pitfalls of P/zPlots and a More Accurate Technique) SPE Paper 38702. Hill.. for producing tables and charts.

cp N.1 19000 0..25 13.345 0.0105 0.hr.35 1.1 .40 0.6104 0.70 0.2406 0.00266 0.3750 3550 3352 1.:?J J' ':?.ft R. r (.00002224 0.!' <J \j..50 0.J'J4~1 t.38 1.i..md h.yS'i"-H' .00081 0.00078 0.ft o.0333 0.36 1.80 0 Appendix (C) Reservoir Data 13 115 1490 0.5665 0. (S) (362) T.1 0.rU'} j!.:I-.J.55 0.65 0.7 4 *10" 0 K.ft R.328 1.75 0.45 0.:..STB Skin.000428 0.r-)f.0928 0..2507 0.. 0.20 50. KIK..0245 0.30 4.60 0....71 0.00085 730 680 640 Appendix (B) Relative permeability Data s?. .15 340.

.'..d..: d.dd ..mm.'. ... ~" 1 . - . "'c..... Ii.' ...'.'" I'.:.J...d.'. .d" 'd. ...J " i i I . Id I d. j ...:. ~.. --:). d. . . 0. ." .. .' 100 1.. ..:":" . "" "" . .""Te" !-. .. ...'. ... .. v .. ...... " '. . ...:. .v:r d'" dd. . ""1>.....d ::: .... I I I ' ". d ... . ::. ' " d'... . J' ..".. I .. .'. .-.. 'VI I ! I ". 1 I ! 0'2 K'R ..'.. '.d..... I . ~'" 11 I f j1:. ..d..d..d'. . """ =<" =<C.. . . ... . . ..i " q I " .'. . .d .'d ': ' ' ' ' ' ~ ~ \ .. "' "".. 11>11" ..!r=:-: / 7 ~ ...-. "d'dd =- ." J.' i ( J . . . .. v.. .I..... . d d : ... - 'I'" . . - . ~ d I II 0 . -...~."..'....1 .. . I . G M '1.I '.. ' .. dd."..'" '. i ..... d""'"'' . 1... ' .. . 'd"d .I~..'~.. .. . . ... .' !\ 3 s. d ..dldd .d'.1 0. > l ..' . .."'....... . ~ bt-H ~ i..... f .....dd.!~. ~. ..'~i.. .:' :.: .j. :.... ""' 0. .'"... .. .'J' -=' ~ . .(1) SemiLog Plot of Gas_Oil Relative Permeability . .01 "' ..0001 ' '.. - fJ! )/~:. .cc~'2" ..... .'.0 0:di :dd dV . - .d ......'.' ... I .11'lli.. .'...... 1 1.. .".. ..100000 10000 .." .. .'.. J I .' .....". r~ ~..d . tU i 0.: d.. . "..001 i I i 11-! ... .... d'..dd.." . I. -- Id ! '- 'I I ' .. .. . '..: /' ""'...' '...H : t... ." d..... . : I. i .~. I '.". ''1.. Fig.I-~tt -~ ~~:." . . . ~ ... I I\ ...."... ..' . 018 ..'.. t .'.... ':"'j d d ._d.. .d. dd ddd "d.:-. Gas Saturation .j-~li"'h+-f~i"--'T'''''Tr:VO 4 .:.00001 ' ..3 hi .' .. ~.. .''.. . ' .'..... .~~(( ' . r-... .....1 m ..jI i! :i r Iii .:.. ' ... . . ~ ' . .. 'd "".. 1000 i! . ." ""'''d I 1 ... ' ""'.: ..0 '1d '-1"-:1-'-1"[I' I " : ..d. . ."........d......' .... .".. ..'.. . "'''''/.. dlld " l... .. Gas Saturation Ratio vs.... . .. .. .It d./ dd --- - d. 0'i.' . :lo t'5 i 1061d '.'d ... .. .'Ij".... '.f=. . 1 I .. . "dd '.-V .: d'" Fd .: '7 . .d . 10 I-dd C.. . -d..dd . I ...LI. . d .... .'I .." I-r... .j= . ~ ..... . ." .11 'd' . ' ..d "... 1 Jj !'! ... -.. d... '....'.1 0.i_[_~ .'... . ~' SI . 'f0..

500 ~"" + I 0 4600 I . to l- V) - 2500.. ~' S-- I "..Rso 3500 ~ 3000 1-.Rav a. 1000 1: ..---._- 4000 -II. psi Fig. Pressure 300JI ~ ?3 S-. ''1-.. U V) r:i ~ . r--- u..."J' -=' ~.---.--- .. '1' ~ \ ").I 2000 0 ~ i I I 1500 ~ ~ ---.J . (2) Produced and Solution Gas Oil Ratios vs. >- . --+.- 4400 4200 4000 3800 3600 3400 3200 Reservoir Pressure..

.03 ~ "1. > r.----- 0.01 ~ ....-.-..----- (5 0.. .00 3000 3200 3400 3600 . ~.- 0. 70 1 60 1 u.02 -..03 .--- i ~' s- . .J 40 ~ <II q.04 ----.-. psi Fig. 0..J' 0..------- 80 -.)J' 8 ~ . Reservoir Pressure 4400 4600 I "" 3 s. .02 1 .Np -GP 0..-..--------- +---- ~IO ~t. (3) Oil and Gas Recovery vs.-- 10 --1--- 1\ 0 I 3800 I 4000 4200 Reservoir Pressure.. Co Z "-' ~..I I ---- 0._. U VI * \ 50 z ~ '-:I' e: ~ ~ .. .01 30 ~ I & I 20 1- " -._------- 0.... 0 * I vz ~ .

.5000 4500 --.~ 2500 0 ii: cu ~. .3352 -e- l 3500 € 1.---. I 1500 1000 :f. '" J. (4) The Relation Between Flow Rate and Bottom Hole Flowing Pressure for different forecasting Pressures 1600 .) ~. ''1.._---- 500 ~ ....- - . r') oJ' -=' un.-...)IE.-.:.. .. ~--. 4000 4350 '1' 3750 --..::.._---_..-- -+- -8-4150 -6. '10 3352 ~ \ ..._...3950 .. . ~ .. 3000 DC! C oJ \$ q.. 0'0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Flow Rate (q).-----. ~ 2000 ~' E 0 t: ~ . ' .. .. ::s 1 m .-- "). bbl/day Fig.

.04 u ::J "C 0 Ir.01 --1. . Forecasting Time 0... -c-0.:.~..J ~--.c .----. ''1...0 400 :1 ... 11: a 800 § 600 .0.---.09 -. l ~. l ... day Fig.1400 0..06 . .03 0. 0. t-....07 ... ~ \ -':>' - . (5) The Oil Recovery Factor and Oil Production Rate vs...- 1000 0.. > -~:is c 0 ----.--. CII .. ~ - 400 -.-.J.~~--~-- Np!N 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Farecasting Time... .05 .. fa IX :e U'-- ..08 ----- 1200 -- 1. ~...0.----. ff ~ S>- .~ '~ "\. u~ ~ ~ ! 0 - ~' 1 I == ~. .02 (5 200 1: .J .. --- u ~: 0....n-.-----.. ':'j' -------- .. -a...