FED SURVEY – ELECTION EDITION

November 7, 2016

These survey results represent the opinions of 36 of the nation’s top money managers,
investment strategists, and professional economists.

FED SURVEY

They responded to CNBC’s invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on November 3-5, 2016. Participants were not required to answer every question.

April 30,

Results are also shown for identical questions in earlier surveys.
This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those
who did accept our invitation.

1. In this year's presidential election, which candidate ...
Clinton

Trump

Don't know

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

78%
... is most likely to win?

8%
14%

44%
47%

... would be best for the economy?

8%

69%
25%

... would be best for the stock market?

6%

CNBC Fed Survey – Election Edition - November 7, 2016
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1

FED SURVEY – ELECTION EDITION
November 7, 2016

2. Which candidate do you want to win?
0%

10%

FED SURVEY

20%

30%

40%

50%

April 30,

46%

Clinton

23%

Trump

14%

Johnson

Stein

Don't know

0%

17%

CNBC Fed Survey – Election Edition - November 7, 2016
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60%

FED SURVEY – ELECTION EDITION
November 7, 2016

3. Please rate the proposed economic policies of the
candidates in the following areas. (0=Worst possible,
SURVEY
5=Best FED
possible)
April 30,
Clinton

0.0

Trump

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

1.63

Taxes

2.89

Business regulation

1.17

3.59

2.49

Trade
0.80

1.97

Jobs

2.24

2.12

Budget deficits
1.03

CNBC Fed Survey – Election Edition - November 7, 2016
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5.0

FED SURVEY – ELECTION EDITION
November 7, 2016

5. Which party is most likely to win the …
0

0.2

FED SURVEY

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

April 30,

29%

Senate

49%

23%

100%

House

0%

0%

Republicans

Democrats

CNBC Fed Survey – Election Edition - November 7, 2016
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Don't Know

FED SURVEY – ELECTION EDITION
November 7, 2016

6. By how much would you change your current forecast for
the 2017 percentage change of the S&P 500 if …

FED SURVEY
Clinton wins

-5.0

-4.5

April
30,
-4.0
-3.5

-3.0

Trump wins

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

-1.1
-3.3

Percentage points

7. By how much would you change your current forecast for
the level of the fed funds rate as of the end of December,
2017 if …
Clinton wins
-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

Trump wins
0

1

+1.43

-2.86

Basis points

CNBC Fed Survey – Election Edition - November 7, 2016
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2

3

4

5

FED SURVEY – ELECTION EDITION
November 7, 2016

8. Janet Yellen's term as Fed chair is up in January,
2018. Would she be reappointed by a …

FED SURVEY
Pres.30,
Trump
April

Pres. Clinton
100%

Yes 5.9%
90%

80%

Yes
61.8%

70%

60%

No
82.4%

50%

40%

30%

No
26.5%
20%

Don't
know
11.8%

Don't
know
11.8%

CNBC Fed Survey – Election Edition - November 7, 2016
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10%

0%

FED SURVEY – ELECTION EDITION
November 7, 2016

9. If Yellen is not reappointed, who do you think is most
likely to be appointed Fed chair by a President Trump?

FED SURVEY
0%
10%

20%

April 30,
Don't know

40%

38%

John Taylor

14%

David Malpass

10%

Ivan Boesky

5%

Glen Hubbard

5%

Carl Ichan

5%

Larry Kudlow

5%

Larry Lindsey

5%

Greg Mankiw

5%

Stephen
Moore

5%

Kevin Warsh

5%

CNBC Fed Survey – Election Edition - November 7, 2016
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30%

50%

FED SURVEY – ELECTION EDITION
November 7, 2016

10.
If Yellen is not reappointed, who do you think is
most likely to be appointed Fed chair by a President
Clinton?FED SURVEY
April 30,
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Lael Brainard

35%

Don't know

17%

Stanley
Fischer

9%

Larry
Summers

9%

Elizabeth
Warren

9%

Heather
Boushey

4%

Karen Dynan

4%

Richard Fisher

4%

Alan Kruger

4%

Daniel Tarullo

4%

CNBC Fed Survey – Election Edition - November 7, 2016
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50%

FED SURVEY – ELECTION EDITION
November 7, 2016
11.

What is the chance of a recession in the next year if:

FED0% SURVEY
20%

40%

April 30,

Clinton
wins

Trump wins

60%

23%

34%

CNBC Fed Survey – Election Edition - November 7, 2016
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80%

100%

FED SURVEY – ELECTION EDITION
November 7, 2016

12.
In general, which of the following is better for
stocks and the economy:

FED SURVEY
April 30,

0%

20%

40%

Divided government with
Democrat in White House and
Republicans controlling one or
both houses of Congress

46%

Unified government with
Republicans controlling White
House and both houses of
Congress

29%

Any divided government

Don't know/unsure

14%

6%

Unified government with
Democrats controlling White
House and both houses of
Congress

3%

Divided government with
Republican in White House and
Democrats controlling one or both
houses of Congress

3%

Any unified government

0%

CNBC Fed Survey – Election Edition - November 7, 2016
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60%

80%

100%

FED SURVEY – ELECTION EDITION
November 7, 2016
13.

What is your primary area of interest?

FED SURVEY

Currencies
0% 30,
April

Other
11%

Fixed
Income
11%
Equities
24%

Economics
55%

Comments:
Jim Bianco, Bianco Research: Trump win, think BRexit. Everyone
thought that would be bad for markets. But central banks panicked,
"printed money" and markets rallied. Same thing could happen with
Trump winning.
Peter Boockvar, The Lindsey Group: The markets and thus the
economy (I wish it was the other way around) will be driven in 2017
not by who the next president is but where interest rates go, either
central bank or market driven.

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FED SURVEY – ELECTION EDITION
November 7, 2016

Mark Elenowitz, TriPoint Global Equities: I, like many other
Republicans with Democratic values, am torn with the choice to be
FED
SURVEY
made November
8th.
Overregulation, Obamacare and flight of
April 30,
industry are building
up to set the US economy back. Small business
is suffering and beginning next year it will be worse. We are faced
with a decision when there is no clear answer or path to make the
US strong in economics, world view and domestic policy.
Unfortunately burying our head in the sand for the next four years is
not the answer but I am hoping Congress and the Senate have the
courage to stand strong for what is best for our country regardless of
who is in the Oval Office.
Art Hogan, Wunderlich Securities: Elections tend to cause more
market agita than is deserved. We have had elections for 240 years
and some crazy ones at that. The world keep spinning. I bet that
will be the case come November 9th.
Constance Hunter, KPMG LLP: There is a deficit of understanding
among politicians when it comes to economics. Add to this cherry
picking data and you have a recipe for often very ill-conceived policy
by both parties.
John Kattar, Ardent Asset Advisors: This election is like a
Hitchcock movie, horrifying but riveting at the same time.
David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors: US institutional strength is
challenged by our dysfunctional political system. We are the sole G7
country with just two political parties and both of them are failing.
Dramatic testing of American governance lies ahead.

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FED SURVEY – ELECTION EDITION
November 7, 2016

Subodh Kumar, Subodh Kumar & Associates: At the cusp of the
U.S. elections and then several upcoming events worldwide in 2017,
FED
SURVEY
not least about
trade
issues including Brexit and the TPP, leading
April 30,
from behind seems
suboptimal. Geopolitical and political economy
urgencies loom for political or military leadership and central banks.
The Fed needs to lead as it did in the 1970s. Rate increases seem
overdue, irrespective of politics. Sector rotation likely favors
industrials and materials but also financials and info tech. as well as
energy restructuring. Anticipating investment risk premiums linked
not only to presently suppressed rates, we favor quality. We also
favor emerging areas for growth over Europe and Japan for valuation
expansion.
Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott: This one's turning into a
nail-biter mighty fast.
Donald Luskin, Trend Macrolytics: If the Cubs can win the Series
at "Progressive" Field, Trump can win the presidency.
Rob Morgan, Sethi Financial Group: The stock market has
historically done better with a Democratic president than a
Republican president. Unfortunately, this is probably due to looser
fiscal policies under Democratic regimes than Republican regimes.
Joel Naroff, Naroff Economic Advisors: With the anger created in
this election, a divided government will be a non-functioning
government. That means not only no tax reform but no Obamacare
reform or rational budget policy.

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FED SURVEY – ELECTION EDITION
November 7, 2016

John Roberts, Hilliard Lyons: Our assumption continues to be that
Clinton wins the presidency. We are hoping that the Republicans
FEDalthough
SURVEY
hold both houses,
our base case is that Senate control
30,
moves to the April
Democrats.
We worry that a President Clinton will be
hamstrung by continuing investigations by the Republicans, which
could be considered overreach by voters leading to Republican
congressional losses in the mid-terms. Typical Republican overreach.
John Ryding, RDQ Economics: The problem with both candidates
is it is not clear how either would be as president. Clinton ran to the
left in the primaries against Bernie and it remains to be seen if she
would pursue an anti-growth tax strategy. TPP was the gold
standard, now she is against it. Trump's tax policies on the
corporate side are more pro-growth but could he pivot to being
presidential and effectively working the White House in the face of
what is likely to be Democratic control of the Senate.
Allen Sinai, Decision Economics: The economy will more strongly
in 2017-2018 regardless of who is elected.
Hank Smith, Haverford Investments: Can't wait until it's over!!
Diane Swonk, Diane Swonk & Associates: This election is unique
in terms of uncertainty regarding not only who wins, but what they
could and couldn't achieve. There is a very narrow victory that would
calm financial markets and the economy.

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