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Chapter 11

Simple Regression

Chap 12-1

Chapter Goals

After completing this chapter, you should be

able to:

Explain the correlation coefficient and perform a

hypothesis test for zero population correlation

Obtain and interpret the simple linear regression

equation for a set of data

Describe R2 as a measure of explanatory power of the

regression model

Understand the assumptions behind regression

analysis

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-2

Chapter Goals

(continued)

able to:

Explain measures of variation and determine whether

the independent variable is significant

Calculate and interpret confidence intervals for the

regression coefficients

Use a regression equation for prediction

for a given X

Use graphical analysis to recognize potential problems

in regression analysis

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-3

Correlation Analysis

Correlation analysis is used to measure

strength of the association (linear relationship)

between two variables

Correlation is only concerned with strength of the

relationship

No causal effect is implied with correlation

Correlation was first presented in Chapter 3

Chap 12-4

Correlation Analysis

The population correlation coefficient is

denoted (the Greek letter rho)

The sample correlation coefficient is

sxy

r

sx sy

where

s xy

(x x)(y y)

n 1

Chap 12-5

To test the null hypothesis of no linear

association,

H0 : 0

distribution with (n 2 ) degrees of freedom:

r (n 2)

(1 r )

Chap 12-6

Decision Rules

Hypothesis Test for Correlation

Lower-tail test:

Upper-tail test:

Two-tail test:

H0: 0

H1: < 0

H0: 0

H1: > 0

H0: = 0

H1: 0

a

-ta

ta

Where t

r (n 2)

(1 r )

2

a/2

-ta/2

a/2

ta/2

or t > tn-2, a/2

has n - 2 d.f.

Chap 12-7

Introduction to

Regression Analysis

Regression analysis is used to:

Predict the value of a dependent variable based on

the value of at least one independent variable

Explain the impact of changes in an independent

variable on the dependent variable

Dependent variable: the variable we wish to explain

(also called the endogenous variable)

the dependent variable

(also called the exogenous variable)

Chap 12-8

The relationship between X and Y is

described by a linear function

Changes in Y are assumed to be caused by

changes in X

Yi 0 1xi i

Where 0 and 1 are the population model

coefficients and is a random error term.

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-9

Model

The population regression model:

Population

Y intercept

Dependent

Variable

Population

Slope

Coefficient

Independent

Variable

Random

Error

term

Yi 0 1Xi i

Linear component

Random Error

component

Chap 12-10

Model

(continued)

Yi 0 1Xi i

Observed Value

of Y for Xi

i

Predicted Value

of Y for Xi

Slope = 1

Random Error

for this Xi value

Intercept = 0

Xi

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

X

Chap 12-11

Equation

The simple linear regression equation provides an

estimate of the population regression line

Estimated

(or predicted)

y value for

observation i

Estimate of

the regression

intercept

Estimate of the

regression slope

y i b0 b1xi

Value of x for

observation i

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-12

b0 and b1 are obtained by finding the values

of b0 and b1 that minimize the sum of the

squared differences between y and y :

min (y i y i )2

min [y i (b0 b1xi )]2

Differential calculus is used to obtain the

coefficient estimators b0 and b1 that minimize SSE

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-13

(continued)

n

b1

(x x)(y y)

i

i1

x

2

(x

x

)

i

rxy

sY

sX

i1

b0 y b1x

The regression line always goes through the mean x, y

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-14

Equation

The coefficients b0 and b1 , and other

regression results in this chapter, will be

found using a computer

Hand calculations are tedious

Statistical routines are built into Excel

Chap 12-15

Assumptions

The true relationship form is linear (Y is a linear function

of X, plus random error)

The error terms, i are independent of the x values

The error terms are random variables with mean 0 and

constant variance, 2

(the constant variance property is called homoscedasticity)

E[ i ] 0 and E[ i ] 2

2

for (i 1, ,n)

another, so that

E[ i j ] 0

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

for all i j

Chap 12-16

Interpretation of the

Slope and the Intercept

b0 is the estimated average value of y

when the value of x is zero (if x = 0 is

in the range of observed x values)

average value of y as a result of a

one-unit change in x

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-17

Example

A real estate agent wishes to examine the

relationship between the selling price of a home

and its size (measured in square feet)

A random sample of 10 houses is selected

Dependent variable (Y) = house price in $1000s

Independent variable (X) = square feet

Chap 12-18

Model

House Price in $1000s

(Y)

Square Feet

(X)

245

1400

312

1600

279

1700

308

1875

199

1100

219

1550

405

2350

324

2450

319

1425

255

1700

Chap 12-19

Graphical Presentation

House price model: scatter plot

House Price ($1000s)

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Square Feet

Chap 12-20

Tools / Data Analysis / Regression

Chap 12-21

Excel Output

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.76211

R Square

0.58082

Adjusted R Square

0.52842

Standard Error

house price 98.24833 0.10977 (square feet)

41.33032

Observations

10

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

F

11.0848

Regression

18934.9348

18934.9348

Residual

13665.5652

1708.1957

Total

32600.5000

Coefficients

Intercept

Square Feet

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Significance F

0.01039

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

98.24833

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

-35.57720

232.07386

0.10977

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

0.03374

0.18580

Chap 12-22

Persamaan Regeresi/Korelasi

Y=a+bx

Regeresi dari Contoh Soal diatas!!!

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-23

Graphical Presentation

regression

line

450

Intercept

= 98.248

400

350

Slope

= 0.10977

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Square Feet

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-24

Interpretation of the

Intercept, b0

house price 98.24833 0.10977 (square feet)

b0 is the estimated average value of Y when the

value of X is zero (if X = 0 is in the range of

observed X values)

Here, no houses had 0 square feet, so b0 = 98.24833

just indicates that, for houses within the range of

sizes observed, $98,248.33 is the portion of the

house price not explained by square feet

Chap 12-25

Interpretation of the

Slope Coefficient, b1

house price 98.24833 0.10977 (square feet)

average value of Y as a result of a oneunit change in X

Here, b1 = .10977 tells us that the average value of a

house increases by .10977($1000) = $109.77, on

average, for each additional one square foot of size

Chap 12-26

Measures of Variation

Total variation is made up of two parts:

SST

SSR

SSE

Total Sum of

Squares

Regression Sum

of Squares

Error Sum of

Squares

SSR (y i y)2

SSE (yi y i )2

where:

y i = Predicted value of y for the given xi value

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-27

Measures of Variation

(continued)

Measures the variation of the yi values around their

mean, y

SSR = regression sum of squares

Explained variation attributable to the linear

relationship between x and y

SSE = error sum of squares

Variation attributable to factors other than the linear

relationship between x and y

Chap 12-28

Measures of Variation

(continued)

Y

yi

2

SSE = (yi - yi )

_2

SSR = (yi - y)

_

y

xi

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

_

y

X

Chap 12-29

Coefficient of Determination, R2

The coefficient of determination is the portion

of the total variation in the dependent variable

that is explained by variation in the

independent variable

The coefficient of determination is also called

R-squared and is denoted as R2

SSR regressionsum of squares

R

SST

total sum of squares

2

note:

0 R 1

Chap 12-30

Examples of Approximate

r2 Values

Y

r2 = 1

r2 = 1

explained by variation in X

r2

=1

between X and Y:

Chap 12-31

Examples of Approximate

r2 Values

Y

0 < r2 < 1

between X and Y:

Some but not all of the

variation in Y is explained

by variation in X

X

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-32

Examples of Approximate

r2 Values

r2 = 0

No linear relationship

between X and Y:

r2 = 0

depend on X. (None of the

variation in Y is explained

by variation in X)

Chap 12-33

Excel Output

Multiple R

0.76211

R Square

0.58082

Adjusted R Square

0.52842

Standard Error

SSR 18934.9348

R

0.58082

SST 32600.5000

2

Regression Statistics

house prices is explained by

variation in square feet

41.33032

Observations

10

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

F

11.0848

Regression

18934.9348

18934.9348

Residual

13665.5652

1708.1957

Total

32600.5000

Coefficients

Intercept

Square Feet

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Significance F

0.01039

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

98.24833

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

-35.57720

232.07386

0.10977

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

0.03374

0.18580

Chap 12-34

Tentukan nilai koefisien korelasinya

menggunakan perhitungan manual!!!

Chap 12-35

Correlation and R2

The coefficient of determination, R2, for a

simple regression is equal to the simple

correlation squared

R r

2

2

xy

Chap 12-36

Estimation of Model

Error Variance

An estimator for the variance of the population model

error is

n

2

e

i

SSE

s

n2 n2

2

2

e

i1

model uses two estimated parameters, b0 and b1, instead of one

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-37

Excel Output

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.76211

R Square

0.58082

Adjusted R Square

0.52842

Standard Error

se 41.33032

41.33032

Observations

10

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

F

11.0848

Regression

18934.9348

18934.9348

Residual

13665.5652

1708.1957

Total

32600.5000

Coefficients

Intercept

Square Feet

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Significance F

0.01039

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

98.24833

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

-35.57720

232.07386

0.10977

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

0.03374

0.18580

Chap 12-38

Manual !!!

Chap 12-39

se is a measure of the variation of observed y

values from the regression line

Y

small se

large se

of the y values in the sample data

i.e., se = $41.33K is moderately small relative to house prices in

the $200 - $300K range

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-40

Regression Model

The variance of the regression slope coefficient

(b1) is estimated by

2

2

s

s

e

e

s2b1

2

2

(xi x) (n 1)sx

where:

sb1

SSE

se

n2

Chap 12-41

Excel Output

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.76211

R Square

0.58082

Adjusted R Square

0.52842

Standard Error

sb1 0.03297

41.33032

Observations

10

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

F

11.0848

Regression

18934.9348

18934.9348

Residual

13665.5652

1708.1957

Total

32600.5000

Coefficients

Intercept

Square Feet

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Significance F

0.01039

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

98.24833

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

-35.57720

232.07386

0.10977

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

0.03374

0.18580

Chap 12-42

the Slope

Sb1 is a measure of the variation in the slope of regression

Y

small Sb1

large Sb1

Chap 12-43

t Test

t test for a population slope

Is there a linear relationship between X and Y?

H0: 1 = 0

H1: 1 0

(linear relationship does exist)

Test statistic

b1 1

t

sb1

d.f. n 2

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

where:

b1 = regression slope

coefficient

1 = hypothesized slope

sb1 = standard

error of the slope

Chap 12-44

t Test

(continued)

House Price

in $1000s

(y)

Square Feet

(x)

245

1400

312

1600

279

1700

308

1875

199

1100

219

1550

405

2350

324

2450

319

1425

255

1700

house price 98.25 0.1098 (sq.ft.)

Does square footage of the house

affect its sales price?

Chap 12-45

t Test Example

H0: 1 = 0

H1: 1 0

Coefficients

Intercept

Square Feet

b1

Standard Error

sb1

t Stat

P-value

98.24833

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

0.10977

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

b1 1 0.10977 0

t

3.32938

t

sb1

0.03297

Chap 12-46

t Test Example

(continued)

H0: 1 = 0

H1: 1 0

Coefficients

Intercept

Square Feet

d.f. = 10-2 = 8

b1

Standard Error

sb1

t Stat

P-value

98.24833

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

0.10977

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

t8,.025 = 2.3060

a/2=.025

Reject H0

a/2=.025

Do not reject H0

-tn-2,/2

-2.3060

Reject H0

tn-2,/2

2.3060 3.329

Decision:

Reject H0

Conclusion:

There is sufficient evidence

that square footage affects

house price

Chap 12-47

for the Slope

Confidence Interval Estimate of the Slope:

d.f. = n - 2

Intercept

Square Feet

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

98.24833

0.10977

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

-35.57720

232.07386

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

0.03374

0.18580

the slope is (0.0337, 0.1858)

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-48

for the Slope

(continued)

Intercept

Square Feet

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

98.24833

0.10977

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

-35.57720

232.07386

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

0.03374

0.18580

$1000s, we are 95% confident that the average

impact on sales price is between $33.70 and

$185.80 per square foot of house size

This 95% confidence interval does not include 0.

Conclusion: There is a significant relationship between

house price and square feet at the .05 level of significance

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-49

F Test statistic: F MSR

MSE

where

MSR

SSR

k

SSE

MSE

n k 1

where F follows an F distribution with k numerator and (n k - 1)

denominator degrees of freedom

(k = the number of independent variables in the regression model)

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-50

Excel Output

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.76211

R Square

0.58082

Adjusted R Square

0.52842

Standard Error

MSR 18934.9348

F

11.0848

MSE 1708.1957

41.33032

Observations

10

of freedom

P-value for

the F-Test

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

F

11.0848

Regression

18934.9348

18934.9348

Residual

13665.5652

1708.1957

Total

32600.5000

Coefficients

Intercept

Square Feet

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Significance F

0.01039

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

98.24833

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

-35.57720

232.07386

0.10977

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

0.03374

0.18580

Chap 12-51

(continued)

Test Statistic:

H0: 1 = 0

H1: 1 0

a = .05

df1= 1

df2 = 8

MSR

F

11.08

MSE

Decision:

Reject H0 at a = 0.05

Critical

Value:

Fa = 5.32

Conclusion:

a = .05

Do not

reject H0

Reject H0

house size affects selling price

F.05 = 5.32

Chap 12-52

Prediction

The regression equation can be used to

predict a value for y, given a particular x

For a specified value, xn+1 , the predicted

value is

y n1 b0 b1xn1

Chap 12-53

Predictions Using

Regression Analysis

Predict the price for a house

with 2000 square feet:

98.25 0.1098(2000)

317.85

The predicted price for a house with 2000

square feet is 317.85($1,000s) = $317,850

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-54

When using a regression model for prediction,

only predict within the relevant range of data

Relevant data range

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Risky to try to

extrapolate far

beyond the range

of observed Xs

Square Feet

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-55

Predicting Individual Values

Goal: Form intervals around y to express

uncertainty about the value of y for a given xi

Confidence

Interval for

the expected

value of y,

given xi

y = b0+b1xi

Prediction Interval

for an single

observed y, given xi

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

xi

X

Chap 12-56

the Average Y, Given X

Confidence interval estimate for the

expected value of y given a particular xi

Confidence interval for E(Yn1 | Xn1 ) :

y n1 t n2,/2 se

1 (x n1 x)2

2

n (x i x)

(xn1 x)2

xn+1 is from the mean, x

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-57

an Individual Y, Given X

Confidence interval estimate for an actual

observed value of y given a particular xi

Confidenceinterval for y n1 :

y n1 t n2,/2 se

1 (xn1 x)2

1

2

n (xi x)

the added uncertainty for an individual case

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-58

Example

Confidence Interval Estimate for E(Yn+1|Xn+1)

Find the 95% confidence interval for the mean price

of 2,000 square-foot houses

y n1 t n-2,/2 se

1 (xi x)2

317.85 37.12

2

n (xi x)

or from $280,660 to $354,900

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-59

Example

Find the 95% confidence interval for an individual

house with 2,000 square feet

y n1 t n-1,/2 se

1

(Xi X)2

1

317.85 102.28

2

n (Xi X)

420.07, or from $215,500 to $420,070

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-60

Chapter Summary

Introduced the linear regression model

linear regression

Discussed estimating the simple linear

regression coefficients

Described measures of variation

Described inference about the slope

Addressed estimation of mean values and

prediction of individual values

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-61

Chap 12-62

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