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Buckling reliability of steel shells utilising the Eurocode 3

methodology

Sebastian Thns
BAM Berlin, Division Buildings and Structures
ETH Zrich, Chair of Risk and Safety

Content
Limit state and uncertainty model for steel shells

Numerical analyses based design (EN 1993-1-6)

Uncertainty model
Adaptive response surface methodology

Uncertainties in regression analysis

Experimental design efficiency criteria

Adaptive response surface algorithm


Application results

Reliability of a support structure of a wind turbine


Summary and conclusions

Numerical analyses based steel shell design (EN 1993-1-6)


g B = ov rRpl 1

Linear buckling analysis (LBA) and


materially non-linear analysis (MNA)

ov = rRpl / rRcr

Limit state function for shell buckling is


based on load factors
Overall relative slenderness contains the
ratio of plastic reference resistance to ideal
buckling resistance

ov 0

ov = 1

ov 0

0 < ov < p ov = 1
p 0

ov = 2
p ov
ov

Depending on the overall relative


slenderness, the fully plastic and the partly
plastic slenderness, the buckling reduction
factor is determined

Uncertainty model of limit state model

Distr. Mean Stand.


Dev.

Random variables of the limit state function

Thickness deviation f t

1.2

0.7

Yield Strength f y

LN

370

24.23

Two random variables modelled with a


statistical distribution based on the JCSS
Probabilistic Model Code

Component capacity C

Response Surface

Stress ratio M /

Response Surface

Ideal elastic buckling load rRcr

Response Surface

Membrane equiv. stress EQ

Response Surface

No correlation for the individual


components
Thickness deviation is based on in situ
measurement data
Responses from stochastic numerical
analysis modelled with response surfaces

Response surface methodology


Experimental design

Numerical analysis

Response surface calculation


Reliability calculation

Design point search


Response surface

Methodological overview

Regression analysis The fundamental property for reliability

calculations is the precision and the


prediction variance in the design point.
Reliability calculation with Monte Carlo,
FORM etc.

Regression analysis
y = X +

1 x11 x1(r 1)
1 x
x 2(r 1)
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X=

1
x
x
n1
n (r 1)

E ( y X, XS ) = XSb
Cov ( y X, XS ) = ( XS N 1XST + I )

1
T
( y - Xb ) ( y - Xb )

=np
=

p = rank( X)

The experimental design matrix X contains


the response model and the experimental
design.

Uncertainties in regression analysis


Fundamental variability of the response
model
Uncertainty of the variance and of the
regression coefficients due to the finite
sample size
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Experimental design efficiency criteria


l1

Central Composite Design (CCD)


Number of centre points n 0
Axial points 2k
Factorial points F

l2

vS = n x(m)T ( XT X ) x(m) = const. r ( x ) = const. Rotatable design


1

= F1/4
1

F ( (F + 2k + n 0 ) F 2

Qeff

1
(m)T 1 (m)
Min
n x N x dx

dx R
R

=
Q ( * )

Orthogonal design

Q-efficiency
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Experimental design efficiency criteria


VI =

n
v S dx
dx U r
Ur

Variance dispersion graph


Integrated prediction scaled variance for
all points with the same distance to origin
Minimum and maximum variance
dispersion graph are coincident with the
variance dispersion graph if the design is
rotatable
Can be understood as a visualisation of Qefficiency

Adaptive response surface algorithm


Experimental design

Numerical analysis

Response surface calculation


Global domain search

Design point search

Design augmentation
Response surface

Regression analysis

Reliability calculation
Reliability calculation with Monte Carlo,
FORM etc.

Importance sampling Monte Carlo method

Adaptive response surface algorithm


u2

Global domain search


Start with an orthogonal, rotatable CCD,
with a width of 2.0 in u-space
Guess of design point
u1

u2
w CDP

u1

Centre of new CCD at centre of gravity of


all component design points
Convergence criteria
If all new component design points
are situated within w CDP = 0, 25 k
If component design are converged
without the condition fulfilled the width
of the CCD can be adjusted
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Adpative response surface algorithm


Design augmentation

u2

CCD is augmented with component


design points
Q-efficiency is improved
u1

CCD becomes nearly rotatable


Criteria: less than 1% deviation of
maximum and minimum integrated
variance to integrated variance

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Adaptive response surface algorithm


1

= arg min u T u
2

g ( u ( x)) = 0

g ( u 0 ) g ( u 0 ) u 0
T

g ( u 0 ) g ( u 0 )
T

Optimisation problem for non-linear limit


state function
Design point calculation
Rackwitz-Fiessler algorithm

u 0 + v = g(u 0 )

pf =

1 m fX ( x)
Ig ( x )

n k =1 h Y ( x )

hY (x) =

Reliability calculation
Importance sampling with a multivariate
Normal sampling density function

1
1

exp (x x* )CXX (x x* )
n/2
2
2

det
C

( )
XX

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Application to a wind turbine support structure


Support structure of Multibrid M5000
prototype

Tower segment I

Structural model
Shell element basis
Contact formulation for tripod-foundation
connection

Tower segment II

Tower segment III

Loading model in ultimate limit state


Nacelle loading
Wind loading

Upper brace
Lower brace
Pile guide

Reinforced concrete
Linear
springs

force

and

moment

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Application to a wind turbine support structure

Distr.

Mean

Stand.
Dev.

Foundation stiffness factor f g

LN

1.0

Modulus of elasticity E

LN

210000 6300

Loading model uncertainty f M od

LN

1.0

Wind load factor f w

WB

0.4891 0.2256

0.6

0.1

Uncertainty model
Structural and loading models are
parameterised
Probabilistic models according to JCSS
Probabilistic Model Code
Derivation with sensitivity analysis

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Application to a wind turbine support structure

SegmentIII

Results

Buckling

..

Component8

4,07x107

Component9

6,61x107

Component
10

6,59x10

Component
11

Only a few components contribute to


probability of system failure
Low probability of component failure

<10

Low probability of system failure

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Summary and Conclusions


Adaptive response surface algorithm

Approach for multiple components introduced


Augmentation for improved efficiency of design
Ready for application to complex examples

Reliability of support structure

Reliability of support structure of a wind turbine is high


Confirmation that hand calculation based codes are conservative

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Thank you for your attention!