International Journal of Agricultural Science and Research (IJASR) ISSN (P): 22500057; ISSN (E): 23210087 Vol. 6, Issue 5, Oct 2016, 3950 © TJPRC Pvt. Ltd.
PREDICTIVE MODEL AND PRODUCTION FUNCTION FOR AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF LINSEED CROP IN BASTAR PLATEAU AGROCLIMATIC ZONE OF CHHATTISGARH
KOMAL CHAWLA ^{1} & A.K. SINGH ^{2}
^{1} Student M.Sc. (Ag), Department of Agricultural Statistics, IGKV, Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India ^{2} Professor and Head, Department of Agricultural Statistics, IGKV, Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India
ABSTRACT
Chhattisgarh State has three agro climatic zones, Chhattisgarh Plains, Bastar plateau and Northern Hills Region. In the present study, an attempt has made to study the predictive models and production function for area, production and productivity of linseed crop in Bastar plateau agroclimatic zone of Chhattisgarh. Time series data for the period from 198384 to 201011 on linseed were utilized for the study. The predictive model under study included a unique feature of structural periodic effect as a factor to capture the cyclic pattern, if any, along with trend effect in the timeseries data. This periodic effect was estimated for area, production and productivity of the linseed. Apart from this model as a first case, wherein 4year periodic cyclic effect is assumed along with annual effect working within it as a nested effect; another model has also been assumed with an overall periodic effect variable in combination with overall trend effect variable without any nesting, for comparison with the first case. Additionally, influences of area and productivity of the crops were also worked out to understand the impact of influencing factor (either area or productivity) on the production of linseed.
KEYWORDS: Linseed, Area, Production, Productivity, Predictive Model, Production Function and Prediction
Received: Jul 28, 2016; Accepted: Aug 20, 2016; Published: Aug 24, 2016; Paper Id.: IJASROCT20166
INTRODUCTION
Chhattisgarh State has three agro climatic zones, Chhattisgarh Plains, Bastar plateau and Northern Hills Region. The plateau region comprises of Bastar, Dantewada, Kanker, Narayanpur, Bijapur, Kondagaon and Sukma. The Bastar plateau has undergone two divisions in 199899 and 200607. However, in the present study all the divisions of erstwhile Bastar plateau have been amalgamated to study area, production and productivity of linseed crop in Bastar plateau region of Chhattisgarh. The time series secondary data were collected for these parameters from 198384 to 201011.
Predictive model proposed by Singh and Baghel (199194) has been fitted separately for area, production and productivity for Bastar plateau region in addition to assessment of their growth rates. Predictions were also made for the next 8 years wherever model diagnostics permitted.
Apart from above a production function was also estimated to understand the influences of area and productivity on the production of the linseed crop in the entire Bastar plateau during this period.
Thus, the objective of present study is (i) to develop predictive models for area, production and
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Komal Chawla & A.K. Singh
productivity of linseed crop for Bastar plateau region, (ii) to assess growth rate of area, production and productivity of linseed crop for Bastar plateau region and (iii) to assess the influencing factor (area and productivity) on production of linseed crop for Bastar plateau region.
MATERIAL AND METHODS
The required time series data for the study were collected from various publications of Agricultural Statistics (198081 to 19971998) and from the website www.agridept.cg.gov.in/agriculture/kharif.htn (199899 to 201011).
A prediction model was hypothesized as proposed by Singh and Baghel (199194), assuming a periodic effect present in the data for a given response variable for a given region. The predictive model included a unique feature of structural periodic effect as a factor to capture the cyclic pattern, if any, along with trend effect in the timeseries data. This periodic effect was estimated for area, production and productivity of the linseed crop wherein, 4year periodic cyclic effect as a factor was assumed along with annual effect within these periodic effects; another model was also assumed with an overall periodic variable, without assuming cyclic effect, in combination with overall trend effect, for comparison with the first case and for prediction. Thus, the following predictive model was fitted using stepwise regression technique as per Draper and Smith (1981).
ln Y = Int + b _{P} P + b _{t}_{(}_{p}_{)} T + ε 
(1a) 
ln Y = Int + b _{P} P + b _{t}_{(}_{p}_{)} T 
(1b) 
where, ln Y= expected value of the natural logarithm of the response variable; Y: area, productivity (i.e., yield ) or production of given a region; Int = intercept; P = periodic time variable taking values from 1 to 7 signifying Period1, i.e., first period for 198384 to 198687; Period2, i.e., second period for 198788 to 199091; Period3, i.e., third period for 199192 to 199495; Period4, i.e., fourth period for 199596 to 199899; Period5, i.e., fifth period for19992000 to 200203; Period6, i.e., sixth period for 200405 to 200708; Period7, i.e., seventh period for 200708 to 201011; T= annual time variable taking values from 1 to 4 signifying the 1 ^{s}^{t} , 2 ^{n}^{d} , 3 ^{r}^{d} or 4 ^{t}^{h} year nested within each of periods 1 to 7; b _{P} = partial linear regression coefficient corresponding to variable P; b _{t}_{(}_{p}_{)} = partial linear regression coefficient corresponding to variable T nested within different periods; ε = error/disturbance component.
Apart from fitting above model as a first case, another model has also been fitted with a little deviation of assuming only an overall periodic variable, without cyclic effect, in combination with overall trend effect, for comparison with the first case, as well as for the prediction, because dummy value, otherwise in the former case, is difficult to be assigned any value with confidence for future case, due to its being a factor (not taking any numerical value).
The growth rates can be estimated from the aforesaid equation (1b) only as follows. Let T be fixed at a particular position in any period, say at 1 ^{s}^{t} , 2 ^{n}^{d} or 3 ^{r}^{d} etc. so that it may be considered constant within any period while P varies. Then we may write (1b) in the form.
ln Y = C + b _{P} P, where C = Int (since b _{t}_{(}_{p}_{)} = 0 for constant T) 
(2a) 
Or, Y _{x} = a ^{}^{} , where Y _{x} = Y, a = e ^{c} , 0 = b _{p} , x = P 
(2b) 
Again, on putting x=0 and 1 respectively we get Y _{0} = a and Y _{1} = a ^{} = Y _{0} (1+r _{1} ), where (1+r _{1} ) = ^{} , say. Then we have %r _{1} = {(Y _{p} – Y _{p}_{} _{1} )/ Y _{p}_{} _{1} }100 for fixed T. Also, r _{1} = ^{} 1 ≈ 1 + 1= = b _{p} (higher powers of in ^{} may be ignored).
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Therefore, r _{1} may be defined as the proportional rate of growth in response variable Y per unit change of P for fixed T, i.e.,
a partial compound growth rate. Similarly %r _{2} _{=} {(Y _{t}_{(}_{p}_{)} – Y _{t}_{(}_{p}_{)} _{} _{1} )/ Y _{t}_{(}_{p}_{)} _{} _{1} }100 and b _{t}_{(}_{p}_{)} were interpreted with respect to
variable T.
Lastly, our interest was to find the extent of influence of area and productivity on the production of oilseeds in
Bastar plateau agroclimatic zone of Chhattisgarh. For this, an additive model with an error term ~ N (0, ^{2} ) was
hypothesized, of course, subject to the subsequent diagnostic tests. Since we have an identity, namely, “Production= Area
× Productivity”, in actual practice the area, production and productivity are not always reported to be accurate enough to
give above identity, due to probably rounding errors and many a times due to human error in recording the data. Therefore,
assuming that the error term is approximately some powers of discrepancies in the reported data compared to actual area,
production and productivity; this identity could be written in the functional form. Thus, after taking natural logarithms,
denoting the error component by ~ N (0, ^{2} ) and then by introducing the intercept term the following linear statistical
model have been obtained:
ln P (A,Y) = c _{0} + c _{1} ln A + c _{2} ln Y + 
(3a) 
Or, ln P (A, Y) = c _{0} +c _{1} ln A + c _{2} ln Y 
(3b) 
Or, P (A, Y) = d _{0} A ^{c}^{1} Y ^{c}^{2} , d _{0} = e ^{c}^{0} 
(3c) 
̂
where A, Y and P (A,Y) denote the area, productivity and estimated production of a given region, the constant c _{0} is
the intercept and (c _{1} , c _{2} ) are the partial regression coefficients corresponding to variables In A and In Y influencing the
production, assuming that ϵ~N 0, σ ^{} .
RESULT AND DISCUSSION
Predictive Models and Partial Growth Rates
The predictive model1 and model2 along with their estimated regression coefficients for periodic and annual
effects/growth rates for area, production and productivity are shown in Table A1 of AppendixA. Thus, it is evident from
Table A1, that the estimated predictive models as defined in equations 1(a) and 1(b) for area, production and productivity
under linseed crop in Bastar plateau region were highly significant for model1 with respective R ^{2} 94.6%, 78.35% and
73.28% (P≤0.05), and for model2 with respective R ^{2} 56.96%, 20.72% and 44.49%, (P≤0.05). For area under linseed,
model1, the regression coefficients which were found to be significant are for periodic effects period3, period5 and
annual effects/growth rates for Year3, Year4, Year5 and Year7 (15.98%, 13.35%, 33.14% and 13.48%, P≤0.05).
Similarly for model2 both the periodic effect and annual effect/growth rate were found to be significant (0.655%, P≤0.1).
For production under linseed, model1, the regression coefficients which were found to be significant are for periodic
effects period5 and annual effects/growth rates for Year5 and Year7 (40.204% and 17.92%, P≤0.05) whereas for
model2 both the periodic effect and annual effect/growth rate were found to be significant (0.727%,P≤0.1). In the same
way, for productivity under linseed, model1, the regression coefficients which were found to be significant are for
periodic effects period6 and annual effects/growth rates for Year6 (28.96%, P<0.05), on the contrary, for model2 both
the periodic effect and annual effect/growth rate were found to be nonsignificant.
The diagnostic plots are given in AppendixB. From the diagnostic plots of the model1 given in Figure.B.1 to
Figure.B.6, it is evident that the predictive models are good fit for area, robust for production and good enough for
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Komal Chawla & A.K. Singh
productivity in which case a quadratic fit based on time series variable may improve the model.
Prediction of Area, Production and Productivity for Next 8 Years
The predictions for area, production and productivity of Bastar plateau region along with the standard errors and
confidence intervals are given in tables Table A2 to Table A4 of AppendixA, and depicted graphically from Figure.B.8
to Figure. B.10 in the AppendixB, on whose perusal it is clear that, the expected area after 8 years under linseed would
decrease from 0.298 log 000’ha, ( i.e. 1.347 000’ha approx), in 201112 to 0.243 log 000’ha, (i.e. 0.784 000’ha approx) in
201819, the expected production would decrease from 0.657 log 000’tones, (i.e. 0.519 000’tonnes approx.) in 201112 to
1.155 log 000’tonnes, (i.e. 0.315 000’tonnes) in 201819, and the expected productivity would decrease from 5.941 log kg
per ha, (i.e. 380.129 kg per ha approx.) in 201112 to 5.818 log kg per ha, (i.e. 336.405 kg per ha approx.) in 201819.
From figures Figure. B.7 to B.9, it is evident that the predictions for area, production and productivity are good enough
from 201112 to 201415, beyond which the confidence interval widens, as is expected because the extrapolated
predictions of regression models are valid within a close range only.
Production Function
The production function equations are given in 3(a), 3(b) and 3(c). The coefficients of determination R ^{2} (AdjR ^{2} ),
as shown in Table A5 of the AppendixA, for the production function is 87.67*** (86.69***), with significant regression
coefficients 0.908*** (P<0.001) and 0.515*** (P<0.001) respectively corresponding to area and productivity components.
From the diagnostic plot given in the figure Figure B.10 of AppendixB, it is moderately a good model fit (i.e. a robust fit).
The influence of area and productivity on production has been determined from this production function, and the estimated
influence of area and productivity have been given in Table A5. It was found for Bastar plateau that, the area has alone
significantly contributed towards production of linseed in Bastar plateau to the extent of 70.23% (P<0.01) while the yield
effect has not much influence on production (only 17.44%, P<0.01). This shows that there is lack of awareness among
farmers of linseed with respect to use of technology in linseed production in Bastar plateau.
CONCLUSIONS
It can be concluded from the present study that the estimated predictive models for area, production and
productivity under linseed crop in Bastar plateau region were highly significant for both the model1 and model2. For area
under linseed, model1, predictive model was mainly dependent on the changes occurring in period3, period5 and on
annual growth rates for Year3, Year4, Year5 and Year7. Similarly for model2 both the periodic effect and annual
effect/growth rate were effective. For production under linseed, model1, the predictive model mainly depended on
changes due to periodic effects period5 and annual effects/growth rates under Year5 and Year7 whereas for model2
both the periodic effect and annual effect/growth rate were effective. However, for productivity under linseed, model1, the
predictive model was mainly affected by changes in periodic effect period6 and annual effects/growth rates for Year6,
while for model2 both the periodic effect and annual effect were found to be nonsignificant.
The predictions for area, production and productivity of Bastar plateau region are good enough from 201112 to
201415, beyond which the confidence interval widens. The influence of area and productivity on production gives a
moderately good model fit (i.e. a robust fit), wherein it is concluded that the area alone has significantly contributed
towards production of linseed in Bastar plateau to the extent of 70.23% in contrast to the influence of productivity
(17.44%), which shows that there is lack of awareness among farmers of linseed with respect to use of technology in
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linseed production in Bastar plateau.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
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The authors acknowledge the staff of Land Records of Chhattisgarh and publications of erstwhile Land Record of
Madhya Pradesh, who have provided the secondary data for linseed crop used in the study. Further, this research work has
been successfully completed with facilities extended by the Department of Agricultural Statistics and Social Science,
Indira Gandhi Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Raipur.
REFERENCES
1. Ali, M.A. and Singh, A.K. 1995. Growth and fluctuations in area, production and productivity of wheat in Chhattisgarh region of Madhya Pradesh. Agril. Situation in India: 609614.
2. Ali, M.A., Rathod, K.L. and Singh. A.K. 1989. A study of regional distribution and growth analysis of area, production and yield of rice zone of Madhya Pradesh. J. of Agriculture, 1(2): 185192.
3. Anonymous, Agricultural Statistics (1981 to 1998), Directorate of Agriculture, Government of M.P., Bhopal
4. Anonymous, The Basic Agricultural Statistics (1981 to 1998), The Commissioner, Land Records and Settlement, Gwalior, Madhya Pradesh.
5. De Groote, H. and Traore, O. 2005. The Cost of Accuracy in Crop Area Estimation. Agricultural Systems, 4: 2138.
6. Draper, N.R. and Smith, H. 1981. Applied Regression Analysis. John Wiley and Sons, New York, 9(4): 241256.
7. Marothia, Dinesh K, Singh R. K. and Koshta A. K. 2007. “Crop Diversification: Post Reform Lessons from Chhattisgarh”, Agril. Situation in India, Vol. LXIV (6): 215226.
8.
National
Conference
on
Agriculture
for
Rabi
Campaign.
Chhattisgarh, India.
2012.
Agriculture
Department,
Government
of
9. Singh, A.K. and Baghel, S.S. 199194. Predictive models for the Area, Yield and Production of Rice in Chhattisgarh and its constituent’s district along with the influence of Area and Yield on the Production A different approach. Farm Sci. J.: 69.
10. www.agridept.cg.gov.in/agriculture/kharif.htn
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APPENDIXA: (TABLES)
Komal Chawla & A.K. Singh
Table A1: Estimated Prediction Models for Area, Production and Productivity of Amalgamated Bastar
Plateau Under Linseed for Period1, Period2, Period3, Period4, Period5, Period6 and Period 7
(Amalgamated Bastar:198384 To 201011) ^{@}
Table A2: Prediction of Area for Amalgamated Bastar Plateau under Linseed for Next 8 Years
From 201112 to 201819
Predicted 
Log(S.E.) log(000’ha) 
Confidence Interval (95%) 
Predicted Area (000’ha) 

Year 
log(Area) 
log(000’ha) 

log(000’ha) 
Lower limit 
Upper limit 

201112 
0.298 



201213 
0.246 



201314 
0.193 



201415 
0.141 



201516 
0.066 



201617 
0.125 



201718 
0.184 



201819 
0.243 


Table A3: Prediction of Production for Amalgamated Bastar Plateau under Linseed for Next 8 Years
From 201112 to 201819
Predicted log(Production) 
Confidence Interval (95%) 
Predicted Production 

Year 
Log(S.E.) 
log(000’tonnes) 

log(000’tonnes) 

(000’tonnes) 
Lower limit 
Upper limit 
(000’tonnes) 

201112 
0.657 
1.051

0.519 

201213 
0.715 
1.159

0.489 

201314 
0.773 
1.270 
0.462 

201415 
0.831 
1.384 
0.436 

201516 
0.958 
1.612 
0.384 

201617 
1.024 
1.742 
0.359 

201718 
1.089 
1.873 
0.336 

201819 
1.155 
2.005

0.315 
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Table A4: Prediction of Productivity for Amalgamated Bastar Plateau under Linseed for
Next 8 Years From 201112 to 201819
Confidence Interval 

Predicted 
Log(S.E.) log(kg/ha) 
(95%) 
Predicted 

Year 
log(Productivity) 
log(000’tonnes) 
Productivity 

(kg/ha) 
Lower 
(kg/ha) 

limit 
Upper limit 

201112 

5.630 


201213 

5.562 


201314 

5.492 


201415 

5.419 


201516 

5.401 


201617 

5.318 


201718 

5.234 


201819 

5.149 

Table A5: Production Function As Influenced By the Area and Productivity of Linseed in
Amalgamated Bastar Plateau for Period1, Period2, Period3, Period4, Period5,
Period6 and Period7 (Amalgamated Bastar Plateau: 198384 To 201011)
Crop 
Model: lnP(A,Y) = c _{0} +c _{1} lnA+c _{2} lnY 

Production Function 
Area effect 
Yield effect 
Total (R ^{2} ) 
%Adj R ^{2} 

Linseed 
Lnt 
lnA 
lnY 

lnP(A,Y)= 
4.103*** 
0.908 *** 
0.515 *** 
70.23*** 
17.44*** 
87.67*** 
86.69 

Note:Significance codes 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘# 
APPENDIXB: (FIGURES)
Figure B.1: Prediction models for Area of Bastar Plateau under Linseed from 198384 to 201011 (a) Observed vs.
Fitted Plot (b) Regression Slopes for Different Periods
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Komal Chawla & A.K. Singh
Figure B.2: Prediction models for Area of Bastar Plateau under Linseed from 198384 to
201011 (c) Residual Plot (d) QQ Plot for Normality Test
Figure B.3: Prediction Models for Production of Bastar Plateau Under Linseed from 198384 to 201011 (A)
Observed Vs. Fitted Plot (B) Regression Slopes for Different Periods
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Figure B.4: Prediction Models for Production of Bastar Plateau under Linseed from 198384
To 201011 (c) Residual Plot (d) QQ Plot for Normality Test
Figure B.5: Prediction Models for Productivity of Bastar Plateau Under Linseed from 198384
To 201011 (A) Observed Vs. Fitted Plot (B) Regression Slopes for Different Periods
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Komal Chawla & A.K. Singh
Figure B.6: Prediction Models for Productivity of Bastar Plateau under Linseed from 198384 to 201011 (c)
Residual Plot (d) QQ Plot for Normality Test
Figure B.7: Prediction of Area for Bastar Plateau Under Linseed for Next 8 Years from 201112
To 201819 (A) Predicted Area (B) Prediction Compared with Observed Area
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Figure B.8: Prediction of Production for Bastar Plateau Under Linseed for Next 8 Years from 201112
To 201819 (A) Predicted Production (B) Prediction Compared with Observed Production
Figure B.9: Prediction of Productivity for Bastar Plateau Under Linseed for Next 8 Years from 201112
To 201819 (A) Predicted Productivity (B) Prediction Compared with Observed Productivity
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Komal Chawla & A.K. Singh
Figure B.10: Production Function As Influenced By Area and Productivity under Linseed in Bastar
Plateau from 198384 to 201011 (A) Observed Vs. Fitted Plot (B) Residual Plot
(C) QQ Plot For Normality Test
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