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PAGE 124

CHANCE &
DATA

CHANCE & DATA
DEMONSTRATE
UNDERSTANDING OF
CHANCE AND DATA
4 CREDITS (91037)

THE SKILLS YOU NEED TO KNOW:
GRAPHING
INTRODUCTION

p 126

There are five different types of graph you
need to be able to read:
1. Scatter graph
Look for trend lines and outliers
2. Times series
Look for a trend over time
3. Box and whisker plot
Look for median and spread
4. Dot Plot
Look for median, spread & outliers
5. Histogram/Bar graph
Look to read values

PROBABILITY

p 136

1. Probability is a measure of the

likelihood or chance of an event
occurring.
2. Events have a probability between 0
and 1 (0 is impossible, 1 is certain)
3. Probability of an event E is written P(E)
4. There are two ways of measuring
probability:
▶▶ Theoretical Calculations
▶▶ Experimentally, using the proportion
of times the event occurs. The experimental probability of an event E is:

Number of times E occurs
P(E) =
Total number of events

Note: Problems may rely
on knowledge from earlier
chance and data sections.

GRAPHING ANALYSIS p 129
Each time you should follow the same
pattern in your explanation:
1. Problem - Define or list the problems/
issues in what you have read
2. Explain yourself, using your
understanding of statistics (this could
be mean, median, mode etc.). Give
definitions as well as pros and cons
3. Improve - Discuss how the situation
could be improved, which assumptions
to change, or under which conditions
their assumptions would be correct

MULTI LEVEL
PROBABILITY

p 139

This is when more than one event occurs
• Addition Law
Probability of E OR F = P(E) + P(F)
• Multiplication Law
Probability of E AND F = P(E) × P(F)
• Probability Trees
▶▶ A tool for working out probabilities
▶▶ Multiply along branches
▶▶ Probabilities of branches from the
same point add to 1

PROBABILITY ANALYSIS p 144

1. Problem - Make a statement about

whether the PROBABILITY is correct
2. Explain how you worked out the correct
answer by showing all working and
giving reasons
3. Improve - Give any improvements and
list possible circumstances where the
situation could have been correct

PAGE 125

The results are shown on the graph below and some statistics are listed in the table to the right. Histogram/Bar graph (look to read values) For a complete tutorial on this topic visit www.GRAPHING INTRODUCTION SUMMARY There are five different types of graph you need to be able to read: 1. What is the height of the tallest person on the graph? b. a.learncoach. He drew a scattergraph of the results. Tuahu wondered if this was true. Dot Plot (look out for median. How many people have an arm-span between 120 and 135 cm? PAGE 126 Statistics Height Arm-span mean minimum lower quartile median upper quartile maximum range inter-quartile range 166 105 160 165 173 201 96 13 162 60 157 165 171 208 148 14 .co. He collected measurements from 100 randomly selected year 10 boys and girls. spread and outliers) 5. Scatter graph (look for trend line 2. Tuahu’s grandfather told him that a person’s armspan is often the same as their height (your armspan is the distance from the fingertips of your left hand to the fingertips of your right hand. What is the height of the person with the smallest arm-span? c.nz NCEA QUESTIONS 1. when your arms are stretched out). He added a line of best fit to the graph. Box and whisker plot (look for median and spread) 4. Times series (look for a trend over and outliers) time) 3.

CHANCE & DATA PRACTICE QUESTIONS 2. Which day of the week had the fewest students ever attend over the survey period? c. b. Which city has the smallest yearly fluctuations and what is the difference (for the maximum temperature). For 60.8 57. 6. What is the approximate median number of patrons on Day 1 d. The results are shown below: for Sunday. Give the min and max values for Saturday and A group of year 9 students and a group of year 13 students were shown a page with 72 dots on it for three seconds. A business owner wants to compare the Saturday traffic with the Sunday traffic to her website. a. give their approximate values. 4. b. They were then asked to guess how many dots they saw. For each year in Rome state the hottest month. 3. a. Year 13 Year 9 51. He had 2 possible locations with different soil types and slightly different climates.8 Median 51 50 Mode 45 48 Range 55 131 Minimum 28 28 Lower quartile 45 48 Upper quartile Mean a. Give the interquartile range for both year groups. A survey of attendance of students at a movie theatre is carried out on Mondays and Tuesdays over several months. c. In this situation. 5. Tuesday is the night with the greatest variability in the number of patrons. c. Which day of the week did the movie theatre have their maximum number of students attend over the survey period? b.5 55 Maximum 83 159 Number Surveyed 20 27 year 9 there were 3 outliers. The graphs below show the monthly average minimum and maximum temperatures for both Rome and Nairobi for three years from 2007-9. Give the approximate range of weights for each site. which measure of average best represents the data and give a reason. Is Tuesday Day 1 or Day 2 (give reasons)? PAGE 127 . Use the trend lines to determine which day has c. He set up 24 rows of plants at each site and over the year measured the weight of the tomatoes he harvested. the greatest increase in traffic? Give details about any outliers that can be seen in the graph above (week and values). Which city has the largest difference between its highest maximum and lowest minimum and what is it. Pete wanted to set up a tomato growing business. b. He decided to do a 1 year trial to see which site produced the higher yield. a.

(Achieved) 6.4 = 23° (±1) (Achieved) 5. (Achieved) (Achieved) 08: July 09: July/August (same) Rome = 27. (All within 500) (Achieved) b.5 . (Achieved) a. (Achieved) b.48 = 7 Year 13: 60.5 (Achieved) (Achieved) Study Tip: Study Groups Can help with exchange of ideas and with motivation.21 = 5° b. 07: August Site A: 6 . Saturday: Min 0. a. More isn’t always merrier. Small study groups (up to 4) work better. Week 6: Saturday had 0 visitors Week 9: Saturday had 7000 and Sunday 9300 visitors. Max 9300.45 = 15. 100. the outliers pull up the mean. Day 2 .This is because (Achieved) (Achieved) (Achieved) it has the largest inter-quartile range and the longest whiskers. Max 7000. Sunday (Achieved) c. Nairobi: 26 . Day 2 b. NCEA 1. Day 2 c. the more likely you are to get distracted. 110 and 160. PAGE 128 . Sunday : Min 2250. Median . a. a. Height of the person with the smallest arm span = 160 cm (Achieved) c. Number of people with arm-span between 120 and 135 cm = 2 (Achieved) PRACTICE 2. Height of the tallest person on the graph = 201 cm (Achieved) b. 325 d.2 = 6 -7 kg a.the mode never is and in this situation c. (Achieved) c. 3. The larger the study group.4 = 2 kg Site B: 9 .ANSWERS 4. Year 9: 55 .

a. median. probability calculations. so it will be more comfortable. There is less difference between the maximum and minimum temperature in Rome.CHANCE & DATA GRAPHING ANALYSIS SUMMARY Each time you should follow the same pattern in your explanation: 1. For a complete tutorial on this topic visit www. c.Define or list the problems/issues in what you have read (because there will be problems!) 2. e. range. The temperature in Rome is less variable over a year. which assumptions need to change. so this is more pleasant. mode. so Rome is warmer. • • • • • Richard wants to move overseas to a warmer city. Should he choose Rome or Nairobi? Justify your answer by referring to the graphs. The maximum temperature in Rome peaks every year. upper/lower quartile. The graphs below show the monthly average. or under which conditions their assumptions would be correct. b. Is Richard correct to believe that the temperature in Rome is higher than the temperature in Nairobi. Richard decides to move to Rome because he thinks: The temperature in Rome is higher than the temperature in Nairobi. PAGE 129 . Is Richard correct to say that “the difference between the maximum and minimum temperature is less in Rome”? Justify your answer using the graphs. Use the graphs given below to answer each of questions (a) to (f).nz OLD NCEA QUESTIONS 1. He would like to move to either Rome or Nairobi. Do the graphs support this? Justify your answer. 3. minimum and maximum temperatures in each city for three years from 2007 to 2009. Do you agree? Justify your answer. using the graphs. inter-quartile range etc. or any other research you would need to do before you could make a valid decision. which is more pleasant to live in. Richard wants to live somewhere warm. so Rome is warmer? Justify your answer using the graphs. using your understanding of statistics (this could be mean. so it will get warmer in the future”.learncoach.Discuss how you could improve the situation.).co. You do not need to explain why the climate features happen. Discuss any limitations in the data. Improve . Richard has been told that both the maximum and minimum temperatures vary less in Rome than they do in Nairobi. Give definitions as well as pros and cons. Comment on how the maximum and minimum temperatures in the two cities vary over a year. d. so it will get warmer in future. Explain yourself. Richard thinks that “the temperature appears to be rising in Rome. The temperature appears to be rising in Rome. f. Problem .

2. In your answer. Is Tuahu’s conclusion valid? You should give at least TWO reasons for your answer . He added a line of best fit to the graph. Explain why you think they are unlikely measurements for a year 10 student.8 57.5 55 Maximum 83 159 Number Surveyed 20 27 Mean PAGE 130 Height Arm-span mean 166 162 minimum 105 60 lower quartile 160 157 median 165 165 upper quartile 173 171 maximum 201 208 range 96 148 inter-quartile range 13 14 a. He drew a scattergraph of the results. Melanie then collected the guesses and analysed the data. when your arms are stretched out). Additional Resources: Year 13 Year 9 51. Each student wrote down how many dots they thought were on the page. 3. The guesses the students made are illustrated by the graph below. Melanie says. including the data collection method The data display and analysis The interpretation of the data If the claim is sensible. Melanie selected ONE year 9 class and ONE year 13 class from her school to take part in her experiment. Make at least FOUR evaluative statements about what Melanie did and what she concluded from her investigation. There are some points on the graph that seem c. Tuahu’s grandfather told him that a person’s armspan is often the same as their height (your armspan is the distance from the fingertips of your left hand to the fingertips of your right hand. Give the height and arm-span for THREE points that seem unlikely. you could consider: The data accuracy.8 Median 51 50 Mode 45 48 Range 55 131 Minimum 28 28 Lower quartile 45 48 Upper quartile 60. Why was a scattergraph appropriate to show the data Tuahu had collected? b. He collected measurements from 100 randomly selected year 10 boys and girls. She held up a page with 72 dots drawn on it and allowed the students 3 seconds to look at the page. “Using the results from my experiment I can conclude that year 9 students are better at estimating the number of dots because the mean guess for year 9 students is closer to the actual number of dots”. a person’s arm-span is the same as their height. Tuahu concludes from his graph that the statement made by his grandfather is correct: on average. Statistics • • • • Evaluate the report about Melanie’s investigation. to be unlikely measurements for a year 10 student. In an investigation Melanie found that year nine students can estimate the number of dots on a page more accurately than year 13 students. Tuahu wondered if this was true. The results are shown on the graph below and some statistics are listed in the table below.

because day 1 had a lower maximum and a lower upper-quartile. He had 2 possible locations with different soil types and different climates. He set up 24 rows of plants at each site and over the season measured the weight of the tomatoes he harvested. Evaluate their choice. etc. answer the following questions. Discuss this using the given data. He decided to do a 1 year trial to see which site produced the higher yield. Include in your report: • The likelihood of either flood event • Any limitations of the data c. a. Using the graph. Pete wanted to set up a tomato growing business. commenting on: • The accuracy of their conclusions • The appropriateness of the data display • If their claim is sensible 5. Do they need to look at alternative water supplies? Justify your answer. This cinema will offer the deal on the night where the least number of people attend. Include: • Trends for both days • Spread for both days • Outliers 7.) • Any other areas the council should look into PAGE 131 . Currently. water use per person. which site should he chose? c. Using the data and graph below. Which site should Pete chose If he wants a consistent yield from his crop? b. The local council are unsure whether or not they need to do more flood protection work. You may like to consider both: • River flow issues • Water use issues (population.1kg 6. a. Why are the upper whiskers much longer than the lower whiskers? b. A local cinema wants to increase the number of customers by offering a ‘Students Half Price’ night. The river is also used for the town water supply. Riverflow for the past hundred years for a river in New Zealand was obtained and a box and whisker plot created for each month. justifying your answer using the data and graph. Therefore. If water flow ever gets below 20 cumecs the town will get heavily fined if they keep drawing water. A business owner wants to compare the Saturday traffic with the Sunday traffic to her website . Site B = 6. If Pete wants the highest yield possible. river flows over 650 cumecs (cubic metres per second) cause minor flooding. The results are shown below: From the box and whisker plot the cinema decided to have the ‘Students Half Price’ night on Day 1. Include limitations of the data in your discussion. Give possible explanations for any outliers b. write a short report for her.0kg.CHANCE & DATA PRACTICE QUESTIONS 4. Average Yield for Site A = 5. the cinema needs to decide whether to offer the deal on day 1 or day 2. So it carries out a survey of attendance of students on these two days over several months. She is also hoping that traffic to her website is increasing. a. Pete has concluded he should choose Site A. At 750 cumecs stop banks are breached and hundreds of houses are flooded. Give reasons for your recommendations.

For approximately half the year. The average maximum temperatures in Nairobi vary from low 20s in July/August each year to high 20s in February each year. the graphs show only monthly averages. Since Tuahu has collected data with two variables (height and armspan). rainfall and wind. However because of Year 9s 3 outliers. a scattergraph is an appropriate way to display his data.5 .48).5 (60. Explain: She has made this claim because the Yr 9 mean is closer to the actual number of dots than the Yr 13. Improvements: Melanie needs to carry out her investigations in a range of classes and schools to make her study more valid. Similarly. The average minimum temperatures in Nairobi remain in the low teens all year. There is also a smaller peak around October and a smaller trough around November/December. In fact. Nairobi’s average minimum temperatures never go below 10°C. The graphs do not support what Richard has been told. a. (Merit) PAGE 132 2. (Excellence) 3. A scattergraph is used to display bivariate data. Also. Nairobi’s average temperatures vary much less so it would feel warmer all year round. The data collection method needs to be free of biases such as students being able to discuss their guesses among themselves during answering and knowing other students’ guesses before answering. The smooth. (Excellence) 1. So there is greater variation in the minimum temperatures in Rome than there is in Nairobi. only at particular times of the year. Rome is colder than Nairobi. a. Problem: Melanie’s claim that Year 9s are better than Year 13s at guessing the number of dots is not a sensible one. The Year 13 median is 51 and Year 9 is 50. whereas Rome would feel much colder during certain months of the year (December to February). (Achieved) d. So there is greater variation in the maximum temperatures in Rome than there is in Nairobi. However. the bigger waves in Rome’s line graphs indicate that both the maximum and minimum temperatures vary more in Rome than they do in Nairobi. It would be sensible for Richard to investigate some of these other factors before making his decision. (Merit) If Richard wants to live somewhere warm.45) but greater consistency in guessing does not mean greater accuracy. Richard NCEA is correct in his claim. Explain: The average minimum temperatures in Rome vary from single digits in January each year to high teens in July/August each year. in one school. Nairobi’s average temperatures are warmer than Rome’s average temperatures. There are other factors that influence how a climate feels. the vertical distance between Rome’s line graphs (typically around 10°C) is smaller than the vertical distance between Nairobi’s line graphs (typically around 13°C). he should choose Nairobi.ANSWERS e. the median is the best measure of average. so they are very similar. (Excellence) . The line graphs show regular waves over year-long periods and there is no upward trend to the graphs. Improvements: Rome is not always warmer. Nairobi’s line graphs show less variation in temperature over a year. while Rome’s average minimum temperatures fall below 10°C for approximately half the year. whereas for Year 13 it is 15. It would be sensible for Richard to look at some daily temperature data to see if there are any significant deviations from the monthly averages. Problem: It is not correct for Richard to believe that the temperature in Rome is higher than the temperature in Nairobi. Nairobi’s average maximum temperatures never go below 20°C while Rome’s average maximum temperatures fall below 20°C for approximately half the year. It allows us to plot points that display both variables in the same graph and thereby determine whether or not there is a relationship (correlation) between the two variables. The Year 9s’ guesses are more consistent. Overall. but also more fluctuation over a year — there are small peaks around February and small troughs around July. The sample size for each is very small and only carried out in one class. pronounced waves formed by Rome’s line graphs indicate a steady rise and fall in average temperatures over a year with peaks around July and troughs around January. such as humidity. Explain: Looking at the graphs. Problem: The average maximum temperatures in Rome vary from low teens in January each year to high 20s in July/August each year. with the Inter-quartile range for Yr 9 being 7 (55 . (Excellence) c. So for approximately half of the year. (Merit) b. There is no evidence to support rising temperatures in Rome.

It may have included the 3 month student holidays when either the students may leave the town or may be working and have more money to attend the movies. His results were only from 1 summer so that may have been a particularly wet or dry. a. sunny or cloudy. (Excellence) 5. Tuahu’s conclusion is valid because • There is a line of best fit. (Excellence) 6. Improvements: However.0kg and for site B is 6. Day 2 has much greater variation in number of customers attending as shown by higher maximum. we do not know which months the survey was carried out over. This is shown by a steeper trendline. windy or still summer. Saturday traffic is increasing slightly as can be seen by the trendline rising from an average of 2000 hits per Saturday to just over 3500. Testing over a few summers with different plant varieties would give a more accurate picture. then Site A appears to be the better option. so further investigation into the validity of Tuahu’s data collection would be sensible. The weekend with Saturday maximum of 7000 and the Sunday maximum of 9300 are both high outliers. (Merit) b. higher lower quartile and higher minimum. lower quartile and median suggest it would be beneficial to run the promotion on Day 2. Average traffic has increased from just over 3000 hits to about 6800. Pete should choose Site B for highest yield. (Merit) PAGE 133 .80) — it is unlikely that someone with a height of 173 cm would have an arm-span as short as 80 cm. Over 100 years there would have been many floods of various sizes which would account for the large whiskers on the upper part of the box and whisker plot. but also has higher median. • Most of the points are close to the line of best fit. Presenting the survey data in another form (such as a time series or dot plot) may give more useful information. (Achieved) c. With river flow there is a minimum flow rate (0) but no maximum rate.CHANCE & DATA b. (160. Sunday traffic is increasing more quickly than Saturday’s. Since the average yield for site A is 5. Explain: Day 1 does have the lower maximum and upper quartile. whereas for Site B the yield difference between highest and lowest is about 6. (Merit) b. Sunday traffic is generally heavier than Saturday as can be seen by a higher Sunday trendline. Problem: Their choice of Day 1 is not sensible. there are a number of outliers with unlikely measurements for a Year 10 student.160) — it is unlikely that someone with a height of 105 cm would have an arm-span as long as 160 cm. Reasons for that could be: • The website has advertised special deals • It is just before Christmas • The weather is bad meaning people are more likely to be inside and going on the internet A Saturday low outlier of just above zero could be caused by: • A special Saturday event or unexpectedly good weather meaning people are outside • The website being down or internet problems meaning people are unable to access the site. From the box and whisker plot neither trends nor outliers can be seen. which suggests a trend of a person’s arm-span being the same as their height. (Merit .2 correct) c. (Excellence) 7. Day 2’s lower minimum. If Pete wants consistent yield. (Excellence) PRACTICE 4. There are three points on the scattergraph that appear to be unlikely measurements: (105. The plant quality (even in the same variety) may vary from year to year and different tomato plant varieties may give different results. a. a. it gives such varying yields from each plant (6. (173. lower minimum and larger lower and upper quartiles suggesting students may be more likely to be persuaded to come out on Day 2 by half price tickets.5kg. However. Pete should use Site A if he wants consistent yield.1kg. Saturday traffic has a wider spread than Sunday as can be seen by the distance of each point from the trendline.5kg) that Pete may be concerned about what will happen under different weather patterns other years. Although the overall yield from Site B is higher. From the graph it can be seen that for Site A the difference between the highest and lowest yield is about 2kg.60) — it is unlikely that someone with a height of 160 cm would have an arm-span as short as 60 cm.

farmers using water for irrigation upstream and climate change may be causing changes in river flow over time. Explain: Over the last one hundred years. Over the one hundred year period 3 months of the year have had flows of around 650 or above and months 1 and 12 have had flows of 700 cumecs at least once. Months 2. Improvements: From box and whisker plots it is not possible to tell how frequently events (such as river flow reaching 700 cumecs) occur. (Excellence) .. in only one month (Month 3) has the river flow gone below 20 cumecs but like (b) above. 4 and 9’s lowest flows are getting close to 20 cumecs. So it would not make economic sense to carry out flood protection work to prevent a 750 cumec flood.b. If the population or water use per person has an upward trend or the river flow has a downward trend. The data also needs to be presented in a form that enables the trend in river flow to be seen and trends in population of the area and water use per person need to be investigated. Problem: The council do not need to do more flood protection work. The council needs to look at the data presented in another form that will give a more accurate indication of the frequency of the river flows reaching 650 cumecs to see if flood protection work needs to be done to prevent the more minor flooding that occurs at 650 cumecs. (Excellence) PAGE 134 c. Then they can get a more accurate indication of the frequency of the river flow dropping below 20 cumecs. They also need to check out the cost of flood protection work in relation to the cost of a flood. it is not possible to tell the frequency of this event. Explain: Over the last one hundred years river flow has never gone above 750 cumecs. Improvements: To get a better idea of how to progress the council needs to get the data presented in a different form. The council may also want to see the data presented in a form which gives river flow trends as factors like removal of bush cover. this would increase the overall water use and thus lower the river making it necessary to look at other water sources. Problem: The council does not need to look at alternative water supplies.

Merit parts give 5 .CHANCE & DATA Study Tip: Understand NCEA You are sitting NCEA so: UNDERSTAND the marking system • Each question is marked out of 8 so attempt all three questions in each topic. • You can get up to 4 marks with Achieved parts.8. Easier parts of the question do not give you any extra marks (but they are a safety net if you’ve made a mistake) PAGE 135 . This gives you the full 7 .6 marks and Excellence gives 7 .8 marks straight away for each question. • If you are aiming for Excellence. do the Excellence parts of the question first.

7. K A. on average. she imagines is the letter she has found on the back of a docket. Alice realises that it will take too long to find an answer by collecting actual dockets. K A. N. 10 i. R A. If Alice can collect the six letters needed to spell Ankara. A. K. R. K and R. 13. A. A. A. A on it. N. On each of the 5 weekdays for 5 weeks Alice finds a discarded docket as she passes the supermarket. N. 8. to be able to spell the word ANKARA. A. N. Using her collection of dockets in (a). She rolls the dice and whatever letter is on top. A. how many times she must roll the dice to spell the word ANKARA. A. A. the letters collected are: NKKRR NAKAR NNAKK NRNAA AKKRR i. she will go in the draw for a holiday to Turkey. A. On the back of each docket is printed one of the letters of the word ANKARA. Once she has all the letters she needs to spell Ankara. Explain why Alice’s experiment is not valid. In the order that she collects them. A. N.co. a city in Turkey. K. A. 22. K. R. N. N. A. A. A. A. A. 10. A. A. A. Alice wonders how many dockets she would have to collect. A. A. 8. R. A. K. A A. R. N. A. a. N. A. N. K. A. A K. The supermarket says that each letter. on average. R. iii. A. R Alice then uses her results to find out how many dockets she needed to spell the whole word of ANKARA. using the proportion of times the event occurs Number of times E occurs Total of events For a complete tutorial on number this topic visit www. A. Alice’s local supermarket is running a competition. . Her results are: 9. She stops her experiment when she has spelt the word Ankara 10 times. N. K.nz The experimental probability of an event E is P(E) = OLD NCEA QUESTIONS 1. Using Alice’s data. what is the probability of Alice getting a K on the next docket? iii. K. A. A. K. N.learncoach. she begins again. 1 is certain) Probability of an event E is written P(E) There are two ways of measuring probability: ▶▶ Theoretical Calculations ▶▶ Experimentally. A. R N. N. N. A. K. K. Using her data. N.PROBABILITY SUMMARY • • • • Probability is a measure of the likelihood or chance of an event occurring Events have a probability between 0 and 1 (0 is impossible. R. A. 8. K. Instead. K. A. R. K. R. A. A. A. how many dockets did Alice collect before she had the whole word of ANKARA? PAGE 136 c. A. How valid is this probability? Give at least 2 statistical reasons for your answer. A. K N. A. b. R. R. A. A. give Alice an answer to her question: “How many dockets would she have to collect. ii. N R. A. N. A. A. R. Complete the table to summarise her data: Letter Frequency A K N 6 R ii. N. to be able to spell the word ANKARA?” Give at least TWO averages. R. K N. N. Alice wants to find out. on average. A. 9. Explain which average you would suggest Alice uses and why. A. is equally likely to be found. she takes a dice and puts the six letters of A. R. N.

a person was picked at random.U. a. What is the probability that A health survey asked a group of 220 adults about their age and levels of exercise. Regular Exercise No Regular Exercise a. What is the probability that it has neither blue flowers nor white flowers? b. U) on it b. 98 62 3rd 17 3 2 22 Total 38 25 13 76 a. Jan Eastern Rugby Club annually play United for the Magpie Trophy. 21 b. What is the probability of a student receiving a card with a vowel (A. Callum has already received a P. Find 4. 10 of the plants have blue flowers. What is the probability that a girl from Waiputa passed her Restricted license at age 17? Age at which Restricted Driving License is Passed in Waiputa: Games 31 14 the game? b. a. a. What is the probability that a 1st place is in the 9. What is the probability that the next letter he receives is one he needs? field? PAGE 137 . Flights are chosen at random from the table below and awarded to winners of a competition. Wind Gale or above Moderate Calm Total Fly NZ Total PRACTICE QUESTIONS 5. and does no regular exercise. What is the probability that a place (1st. Age 17 18 19 20 Over 20 Total Boys 109 89 22 49 9 278 Girls 41 86 42 32 25 226 Total 150 175 64 81 34 504 During youth week at Waipua College every time a student was observed doing something good the student was given one of the letters from the word Waipua. They received a prize once they spelt Waipua. The heights were plotted on the histogram. what is the probability that someone from Waiputa passed their restricted license at age 18? b. b. What is the probability the cream will work. A plant is chosen at random from Anne’s garden 3 weeks after planting. A plant is chosen at random from Anne’s garden. There are 45 plants in flower in Anne’s garden. It was found that 3750 of the 5000 trialists had significant improvement in their acne. P and A. What is the probability that her flight is with FlyNZ? a. E. I. Each letter was equally likely to be received. Draw 2 1 4 The table shows results for Southern High from the regional interschool sports meeting Track Field Swimming Total Mountain Air 12 17 6 3 Blue Skys 15 10 1 1 TOTAL 140 3rd) is in swimming? 8. What is the probability that it was calm during 7. What is the probability that the result was a loss for Eastern Rugby Club? 2nd 8 12 8 28 4 b. 2nd or 60 1st 13 3 10 26 16 her flight is to Queenstown? wins a flight to Auckland. Using the data below. What is the probability that the plant chosen is less than 12 cm high? Three different airlines fly from Christchurch to different destinations in New Zealand each week. as shown in the table below. O. Age 38 22 the probability that an adult picked at random from the whole group is 50 years or older. Over the last 60 years Eastern have recorded the wind strength if they won or drew the game Win 14 13 2 34 Over 50 A new anti acne cream was undergoing trials. The heights of the 45 plants in Anne’s garden were measured 3 weeks after planting. and 11 of the plants have white flowers. Number of flights to each destination Under 50 6. What is the probability that this person exercised regularly? Airline 3. From the group of adults 50 years or older.CHANCE & DATA 2. Auckland Queenstown Mt Cook Rotorua a. The table shows some of the data from the survey. U. Anne wins a flight.

9. Therefore.6 = 60% 5 5 5 5 (Achieved) (Achieved) 140 34 b.533 53% (Achieved) 45 36 b. = P = = 10% NCEA 220 1. P(Passed at 18) = = = 0.6 = 60% 5 5 5 5 (Merit) b. the experimental probability calculated in (ii) is close to the theoretical probability and seems to be valid. (Merit) 9 + 7 + 8 + 9 + 8 + 8 + 22 + 13 + 10 + 10 10 104 = = 10.25 60 4 (Merit) b. a. a.25 The frequency table in (i) suggests there is a fairly even distribution of the four letters despite the small sample. (Excellence) b. Assuming that each letter is equally likely to be found. = 60 30 4. = P == 0= . which seems significantly higher than all the other data entries and should be treated as an outlier.10. a.8 80% 5 38 19 (Achieved) P == 0= . = 0.4 10 Median of {7. P(1st in Field) = = 0.10.22} = 9 (Merit) ii.ANSWERS 22 1 3. Alice should use the median because the mean might have been influenced by the data entry 22. a.6333 63% b. a. (Excellence) Mean = 24 8 2. Alice’s experiment is not valid because her dice has A on three of its sides. i. Letter Frequency A 6 K 7 N 6 R 6 (Achieved) 7 = 0. (Merit) iii.56 (2dp) 61 (Merit) . Alice had to collect 13 dockets before she could spell ANKARA.8. P(Girl Passed at = 226 (Achieved) 9. a.9.8. = P = 45 PAGE 138 15 4 = 0= . and the letters printed on previous dockets have no influence on the letter printed on the next docket. Number of losses: = 60 − (14 + 13 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 4) = 24 Probability of losing: 24 2 = = 0.8.4 (Merit) 60 5 3 7. P(CreamWorking) (Achieved) 6.75 5. 10 (Achieved) PRACTICE 3750 5000 = = 0.12 (Achieved) 26 13 b. 48 = 0. the theoretical probability of getting a K on a randomly selected docket is 1/4 = 0. i. P(W or I or A) = P(W) + P(I) + P(A) = 1 1 1 3 + + = = 0. P(Vowel) = P(A) + P(I) + P(U) = 1 1 1 3 + + = = 0. P(Swimming) = = 0.18 b. The median ignores this outlier and will provide a more reliable average.28 25 (Achieved) iii. a.17 (Achieved) 76 P(loose) = 175 25 8.34 (2dp) = ii. a. Number of games at where it was calm: = 60 − (14 + 31) = 15 Probability of it being calm at a game: P(calm) = 15 1 = = 0. This gives a 50% chance of rolling an A and does not reflect the equal likelihood (25%) of finding any of the four letters on the dockets. P(K on next docket) c.13.35 504 72 (Achieved) 41 17) = 0.

ii. g. e.) Each dice has 6 faces. Three different destinations are available. Harley rolls a blue dice and a green dice 100 times and records the results.CHANCE & DATA MULTI LEVEL PROBABILITY SUMMARY This is when more than one event is occurring • Addition Law Probability of E OR F = P(E) + P(F) • Multiplication Law Probability of E AND F = P(E) × P(F) • Probability Trees ▶▶ A tool for working out probabilities ▶▶ Multiply along branches ▶▶ Probabilities of branches from the same point add to 1 e.nz OLD NCEA QUESTIONS 1. (The order of the shapes does not matter. Calculate the probability that John wins flights to two different destinations PAGE 139 .co. f. Harley has an orange dice which has only s and some s on its faces.4 Queenstown 0. Use probability methods to find your answer and explain your reasoning clearly. Estimate the probability that on the next roll he will get: i.5 = 0.1 Kerikeri 0. 2. express the probability that he gets . Estimate the probability that the blue dice shows a if the green dice shows a . and all of the dice are fair. what is the most likely number of faces with a marked on them? Use probability methods to find your answer and explain your reasoning clearly. c. He rolls this orange dice with the green dice 120 times and records the combinations that show up. Harley has a collection of unusual dice. Probability of tails then heads: P(TH) = 0. All flights are chosen at random according to the probabilities in the table. His results are summarised in the table below. Estimate the probability that Harley will not get a on the next roll. which have shapes on each side. ONE and ONE . His results are summarised in the table below. a. Deduce how many s there are on the green dice.5 × 0. Nice Flight airline gives away flights from Wellington as prizes.25 For a complete tutorial on this topic visit www.g. Using a ratio in its simplest form. Estimate the probability that if there are no s showing. The probability of flights going to each of the destinations is shown in the table. there is a showing.5 John wins two separate prizes with NiceFlight. d. Destination Probability Greymouth 0. a and a . On the orange dice.learncoach. b.

8. 9 The other customers all buy petrol. E and F in the ratio 8 : 10 : 7 The probability that a seed germinates in Plot D is 0.1% of the time. • There are 3 female kittens and 1 male kitten. The probability that a seed germinates in Plot A is 0. PAGE 140 a. When the oil pressure is too low. However. b. This scientist expects 390 seeds to germinate from the 600 he planted. 1 of both diesel and petrol customers pay cash for 5 their fuel. When the oil pressure is okay. A cat has four kittens. She does this 80 times. 4. She spins the arrow twice and adds the two scores. What is the probability that the total of the two scores is 30? b. What is the probability that a seed in Plot F germinates? 7. Some of the information is shown on the diagram. the light should come on. by finding and comparing probabilities. How many times would she expect the total to be at least 40? . Explain fully and carefully. the light is on 98% of the time. What is the probability that the next two customers both bought petrol? 5. a. and in Plot B it is 0. If the pressure becomes too low. the light is not always reliable. with the three sectors labelled with scores of “10”. Find the probability that the light is giving an incorrect reading. the light is on 0. “20” and “30”.7 and in Plot E is 0. All others pay by credit card. at random bought petrol and paid by credit card? b. A research scientist plants eleven seeds in Plot A and nine seeds in Plot B. 6. What is the probability that a customer chosen A circular spinner is divided into two quarters and one half.7. • There are equal numbers of female and male kittens. Find the probability that a seed chosen at random germinates. Sue is also playing with the spinner. We know that the oil pressure is too low 1% of the time. Ngaire spins the arrow twice. The oil pressure in a vintage car is noted by a warning light. as shown in the diagram. The scientist then plants seeds in Plots D.3. Assume that each kitten is equally likely to be a female or a male. which of the following is most likely for the four kittens: • There are 4 female kittens. a.8 At a certain garage the probability of a customer 1 buying diesel is .

2 i. A probability tree may help. When the whistle blows. Mei is scared of spiders and will only eat cupcakes with sharks. a.Joseph will cook H and a T . Of those who didn’t have onions.James will cook What is the probability one of the boys will cook? At a fundraising sausage sizzle you were offered onions and tomato sauce as extras It was found 70% had onions and of those 80% has tomato sauce as well. What is the probability of this? b. a. A B C 11. There are: • 2 choices of icing – yellow or green • 2 choices of edible animal decorations – spider or shark • 2 choices of sprinkles – gold or silver. Natalie runs out of silver sprinkles quite quickly so the probability of silver sprinkles is only 0. Will have yellow icing and a shark on the top? ii. a. What is the probability of a randomly chosen person who bought a sausage having tomato sauce with it? b. Troy only eats cupcakes with yellow icing. 10. What is the probability that any random cupcake chosen i. If the coins land with 2 heads up James will cook. Will have a shark on the top? b. If the coins are: TT . What is the chance Mia and Hone are both in area C as shown in the diagram? b.Hayley will cook HH . the children have to freeze. What is the probability her cupcake is green with gold sprinkles? PAGE 141 . Children are running round a playing field. Natalie has made 10 batches of cupcakes for her little brother’s birthday party and decorated them. Tails = T. Heads = H. Hayley and James have two coins and toss these to see who will cook dinner.CHANCE & DATA PRACTICE QUESTIONS 8. 40% didn’t have tomato sauce either. Joseph. A probability tree has been started. What is the probability he gets a cake with a shark and gold sprinkles? ii. What is the probability of a randomly chosen person having a sausage with just one extra (either sauce or onions)? a. What is the probability that both Mia and Hone are in the same area? 9.

35 (2 dp) 49 17 = 0 = .8 = 7.4 + 0.001 = 0.28 g 0. 100 100 (Achieved) 19 + 16 + 7 42 = = 0.4 × 0.02 + 0.42 = 42% b. = 0= (Achieved) 100 14 + 9 23 = = 0.32 + 0.385 + 0.23 = 23% ii. a.106 = 0.e. and the lowest result for suggests that is only on 1 or 2 sides. P(P) × P(P) = 9 × 9 = 81 (Achieved) PAGE 142 6. a.28 g 0.1× 0.6 (64) 168 g = 63. (Merit) 4. 2 [0. They are not. (Merit) 35 e. (Excellence) 2.1× 0.65 = 0.36 = 0.01× 0.7 (8 plants) P(Plot B) = 9 × 0.379 .7 + × 0.65 = 0. 1.5] = 0.224 + 0. The shaded row in the table most closely matches the experimental results.7 = 134. Options (No.7 = 7. (Excellence) 20:120 = 1:6 (Merit) If there were 3 each of and we would expect the frequencies to be approx 1:2:1.07 7% i.00099 (Excellence) = 0. 1 P(4 F ) = 16 4 P (3F ) = 16 6 P(2 F ) = 16 (Merit) (Achieved) 9 5 45 8 8 64 b.8 + × g 600 25 25 25 0.58 3.7 + × 0. 49 49 % d. of each shape) Expected Numbers 1 5 10 60 50 2 4 20 60 40 3 3 30 60 30 4 2 40 60 20 5 1 50 60 10 Therefore the orange die is most likely to have four sides with a marked on them. g. Let g be the germination of plot F.ANSWERS NCEA 5.00119 total seeds seeds germinated Plot D: 192 × 0.8 = 192 Plot F: 168 × g = 63.745 = 75% P= OR P(Plot A) = 11× 0. a.4 (134) Plot E: 240 × 0.8 20 20 = 0.28 g 0.0002 + 0. P(P) × P(CC) = 8 × 4 = 32 P = 0. so it can be said that there are equal numbers of each of and on the green dice – i.75 = 75% 20 b.2 (7 plants) 15 (Merit) P= = 0. 100 100 (Achieved) 17 c. and on the green dice are almost the same for any symbol on the blue dice. 11 9 × 0.5 + 0.379 = g OR Equal male and female most likely. 3 of each. P(Total) = P(D) + P(E) + P(F) 390 8 10 7 = × 0. 7 .6 (Excellence) g = 0.99 × 0.544 + 0. The results for the f. (Merit) = 0.

75 P(HH)= b. 2nd is 20) + P(1st is 20.14 + 0. P(Yellow & Shark) = P(Yellow ) × P(Shark) = 0.3 = 0.4 × 0. 2nd is 1 1 1 1 2 1 = = × + × = 4 4 4 4 16 8 (Merit) 10.375 (Merit) 16 16 4 16 8 P(Mia in C) = 9.18 + 0. i. 10) b. P(Hone in C) = 1 2 1 2 P(Both in C) = P(Hone in C) × P(Mia in C) 1 1 1 = × = = 0.3 × 0. P(Sauce) = P(O + S) + P(No O + S) = 0.6 = 0. P(30) = P(1st is 10.2 + 0.3 × 0.32 (Excellence) a.18 (Merit) ii.8 = 0. P(Green&Gold) = P(Green ) × P(Gold) = 0.75 4 4 4 4 (Merit) PAGE 143 . a.6 = 0.24 (Excellence) ii.25 = 0.8 + 0.3 × 0.8 = 0.7 × 0. i.CHANCE & DATA 7. HT.6 × 0.18 = 0.74 (Merit) b.42 (Merit) b.25 2 2 4 (Merit) b.7 × 0. a.25 4 P(Boys Cooking) = 1 − 0. Equal possible outcomes are: HH. P(Shark) = P(Y & S) + P(G & S) = 0. a. TH..25 (Achieved) 4 1 P(TT) = = 0.56 + 0. Alternative Method Boys will cook if result is HH or HT or TH. TT. P(Both in same area) = P(Both in A) + P(Both in B) + P(Both in C) 1 1 1 1 1 1 =  × + × + ×  4 4 4 4 2 2 1 1 1 6 3 = + + = = = 0. P(1 Extra) = P(O + No S) + P(No O + S) = 0.18 = 0.4 × 0. P(T ≥ 40) = 1 − P(total is 20 or 30) = 1 − P(total 20) − P(total 30) 1 1 2 = 1− × − (from a. P(Shark&Gold) = P(Shark ) × P(Gold) = 0.32 (Excellence) 11. a.6 = 0. 1 = 0.) 4 4 16 1 2 = 1− − 16 16 13 = 16 13 Expected No = × 80 16 (Excellence) = 65 PRACTICE 8. 1 1 1 3 P(HH or HT or TH) = + + = = 0.

Explain how you worked out the correct answer: • Show all working • Give reasons for you working if possible Improve .PROBABILITY ANALYSIS SUMMARY 1. For a complete tutorial on this topic visit www. • In your answer.co. 3. randomness) Any other information that would be helpful • • • • PRACTICE QUESTIONS 2. Cody sees the advertisement below and concludes he has 1 in a 1000 chance of winning $1000 worth of electronics. • • • • Talia stated ‘Redheads are becoming more common’ .Give any improvements that are needed. PAGE 144 . This is because Talia has 5 people in her class with naturally red hair whereas when her Mum was growing up there were only 2 in her class and her Nana never had any. Evaluate the claims in the advertisement below. you may find it helpful to comment on: What the variables of interest are The purpose of the advertisement The question the advertisement is posing If the claims in the advertisement are valid. correct and sensible Any other information that would be helpful. List any possible circumstances where the situation could have been correct. 3.learncoach. • • • • Evaluate his conclusion by commenting on the following: What the relevant variables are Assumptions Cody is making If his conclusion is valid Any other information that would be helpful.Make a Statement about whether the PROBABILITY in the question is correct (It usually isn’t). Evaluate Talia’s statement by commenting on: The variables The assumptions that Talia has made The nature of the sample (size. Problem . 2.nz OLD NCEA QUESTIONS 1.

The player first has to spin a wheel which is split up into 4 quarters each with a different colour on it: red. 7. Exact calculations are not required. Evaluate Zoe’s statement. Her father said she couldn’t because it was too dangerous. Zoe found out that 480 people died on the roads last year in New Zealand and of those who skydived. The player wins a small prize if the colour spun matches the colour of the ball. Evaluate the sign and any repercussions on fundraising. Include: • The purpose of the advertisement • If the claims in the promotion are valid. Zoe wanted to do a tandem skydive for her 16th birthday. blue. A supermarket promotion included a scratch card if you spent $50 or more. oranges or pears and WIN! 25% chance of winning!’ Discuss this promotion. You may like to include: • If the claims are valid. There was a chance game at a school fair that you pay to enter. 1 person out of 25000 died. and yellow. The supermarket stated ‘Match 3 apples. a $10 voucher was won. green. correct and sensible • Any other information that would be helpful. Discuss the claim that Jeremy and Sally made. • Any other information that would be helpful 6. They told everyone that there was a 1 in 11 chance of winning. The player then had to reach into a box with 40 balls (10 of each colour) and pull one out. each with a picture of one of four different fruits. You may like to comment on • The purpose of her statement • Assumptions or errors Zoe has made about the risk of her dying in a car accident • Subsets of the national statistics she may be in and the affect that has on relative risks Jeremy and Sally decided to create a chance game for a family reunion. Exam Tip: Proofreading • Only takes a few minutes • Finds the silly mistakes • Gives you extra marks (especially if your teacher is super-meticulous) SO many people miss out on Extra Marks by not proof-reading PAGE 145 . So she told her father she should be allowed to sky dive because that she had a 1 in 480 chance of dying during a car ride tomorrow compared to only 1 in 25000 chance of dying in a skydive accident.CHANCE & DATA 4. If all three fruits on the scratch card were the same. 5. correct and sensible • How they may have decided upon the 1 in 11 chance. The sign advertising the game states there is a 1 in 8 chance of winning. bananas. There were three panels on the card. They told all their relatives that if they can get a total of 12 after two throws of a dice then they win a lolly.

and colour.000.25%. Problem & Explain: Cody is correct that he has a 1 in a 1000 chance of winning (10/10000). not a daily figure. Improvements: However. OR It could be that there are actually more yellow circles in circulation than any other token. Zoe wants to convince her father to allow her to skydive so the aim of her statements is to persuade her father. By stating that there is a 25% chance of winning it encourages people to shop there and to spend at least $50 to try and win a $10 voucher. 4. The poster also does not say that all the prizes are electronic goods. Even without further investigation of skydiving statistics and driving habits there is still a much lower chance of her dying in a car crash when compared to skydiving.000. Explain: The aim of the promotion is to try and encourage people to shop at that supermarket and to spend more when they are there. • Was the proportion of redheads similar over different classes in the school and in different schools around the country? Improvements: Talia’s statement may be true but she needs to do further investigations of different classes and schools now and in the time of her mother and grandmother. (Excellence) PAGE 146 . The 480 would need to be divided by 365 if she was to make it daily. Problem: Jeremy and Sally’s claim of a 1 in 11 chance of winning is incorrect. (Excellence) Problem: Talia’s statement is unlikely to be true. It is actually 480 deaths per 4 million people (population of New Zealand). For example. Late at night may be more risky than during the day. Improvements: Their claim of 25% may be correct if they have made 25% of the scratch cards specifically to have three of the same fruits. Improvement: A more realistic probability would be calculated by multiplying 1 in 365 by 480 in 4. which you would expect but which may not be the case.25 x 0.000. so that there is actually a 30% chance of winning. since this is 33% and may have been rounded. Improvements: They may have reached the 1 in 11 chance by just counting the possible totals (2-12). not 30% as the 12 ad claims. as there are 6 different combinations that can make 7. Explain: There are two errors in Zoe’s reasoning: • The value of 480 deaths is an annual figure. While it could be that all prizes are $1000 worth of electronics. If the fruits all occur with equal frequency. for the reasons above. being put into the lamburgers so that the distribution is uniform.25 = 6. So to get a total of 12 there is actually a 1 in 36 chance. For example probably getting a ride with her father is lower risk than if one of her fellow students gives her a ride.ANSWERS NCEA 1. (Excellence) PRACTICE 2. This ends up giving an probability of around 1 in 3.25 x 0. this calculation assumes that there is the same number of each token. Zoe could also investigate the sky diving statistics more thoroughly. Explain: This is because there are 3 types of token and each comes in 4 colours. this is unlikely. only 1 of which is a yellow circle. 7 comes up the most often. Explain: To get a 12 the player needs to throw two sixes each of which has a 1 in 6 chance. making 12 different tokens in total. stating that there is a 25% chance of winning is incorrect. Problem: Zoe’s statement is not true. Problem: The supermarket’s statement is not true.000. (Excellence) 5. • It is incorrect to use 1 in 480 as the probability of dying. There is a 25% chance of getting a particular fruit on one of the panels but the chance of having the same fruit on all 3 panels is 0. you would have to check with the company OR Perhaps the 30% applies only to the change of getting the circle. It could be that tandem skydivers or people under 20 or females are more or less likely than average to have a fatal accident. Improvement: Cody should assume that he has a 1 in a 1000 chance of winning a prize. (Excellence) 6. Jeremy and Sally should have accounted for the fact that some totals come up more often than others. • The value of each prize is not specified. (Excellence) Problem: The chance of getting a yellow circle is 1 actually. Who is driving the car and at what time could also need to be taken into account. 3. except to say it has a maximum value of $1000. • Were all 3 at school in areas with typical mixes of nationality – for example her grandmother could have been at school in an area with a high proportion of Maori pupils. Explain: For Talia’s statement to be true the following needs to be considered: • Were the samples the same size – Talia’s class size may be bigger than her mother’s or grandmother’s. which is only about 8%. • The purpose of the poster is to sell tickets and make money. However: • He assumes all 10 prizes are $1000 worth of electronics.

the promoters need to change the advertisement to accurately reflect the higher chance of winning. there is always a 1 in 4 chance of pulling out a matching ball. topping a quiz) also deserve small rewards Maybe you could remind your parents about this one! PAGE 147 . Problem: The sign saying a 1 in 8 chance of winning is incorrect. this means their profits wild be lower and they may even loose money because of the cost of prizes. (Excellence) Study Tip: Rewards Reward yourself for passing a tough year! Small achievements (e. Improvements: In addition. meaning potentially increased numbers of paying participants leading to increased profits.CHANCE & DATA 7. It does not matter what colour is spun on the wheel. If they have worked out pricing based on winning 1 in 8 times instead of 1 in 4. Explain: There is a 1 in 4 chance of getting a particular colour and its corresponding ball.g.