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PAGE 124

CHANCE &
DATA

CHANCE & DATA
DEMONSTRATE
UNDERSTANDING OF
CHANCE AND DATA
4 CREDITS (91037)

THE SKILLS YOU NEED TO KNOW:
GRAPHING
INTRODUCTION

p 126

There are five different types of graph you
need to be able to read:
1. Scatter graph
Look for trend lines and outliers
2. Times series
Look for a trend over time
3. Box and whisker plot
4. Dot Plot
Look for median, spread & outliers
5. Histogram/Bar graph

PROBABILITY

p 136

1. Probability is a measure of the

likelihood or chance of an event
occurring.
2. Events have a probability between 0
and 1 (0 is impossible, 1 is certain)
3. Probability of an event E is written P(E)
4. There are two ways of measuring
probability:
▶▶ Theoretical Calculations
▶▶ Experimentally, using the proportion
of times the event occurs. The experimental probability of an event E is:

Number of times E occurs
P(E) =
Total number of events

Note: Problems may rely
on knowledge from earlier
chance and data sections.

GRAPHING ANALYSIS p 129
Each time you should follow the same
1. Problem - Define or list the problems/
issues in what you have read
2. Explain yourself, using your
understanding of statistics (this could
be mean, median, mode etc.). Give
definitions as well as pros and cons
3. Improve - Discuss how the situation
could be improved, which assumptions
to change, or under which conditions
their assumptions would be correct

MULTI LEVEL
PROBABILITY

p 139

This is when more than one event occurs
Probability of E OR F = P(E) + P(F)
• Multiplication Law
Probability of E AND F = P(E) × P(F)
• Probability Trees
▶▶ A tool for working out probabilities
▶▶ Multiply along branches
▶▶ Probabilities of branches from the

PROBABILITY ANALYSIS p 144

1. Problem - Make a statement about

whether the PROBABILITY is correct
2. Explain how you worked out the correct
answer by showing all working and
giving reasons
3. Improve - Give any improvements and
list possible circumstances where the
situation could have been correct

PAGE 125

The results are shown on the graph below and some statistics are listed in the table to the right. Histogram/Bar graph (look to read values) For a complete tutorial on this topic visit www.GRAPHING INTRODUCTION SUMMARY There are five different types of graph you need to be able to read: 1. What is the height of the tallest person on the graph? b. a.learncoach. He drew a scattergraph of the results. Tuahu wondered if this was true. Dot Plot (look out for median. How many people have an arm-span between 120 and 135 cm? PAGE 126 Statistics Height Arm-span mean minimum lower quartile median upper quartile maximum range inter-quartile range 166 105 160 165 173 201 96 13 162 60 157 165 171 208 148 14 .co. He collected measurements from 100 randomly selected year 10 boys and girls. spread and outliers) 5. Scatter graph (look for trend line 2. Tuahu’s grandfather told him that a person’s armspan is often the same as their height (your armspan is the distance from the fingertips of your left hand to the fingertips of your right hand. What is the height of the person with the smallest arm-span? c.nz NCEA QUESTIONS 1. when your arms are stretched out). He added a line of best fit to the graph. Box and whisker plot (look for median and spread) 4. Times series (look for a trend over and outliers) time) 3.

CHANCE & DATA PRACTICE QUESTIONS 2. Which day of the week had the fewest students ever attend over the survey period? c. b. Which city has the smallest yearly fluctuations and what is the difference (for the maximum temperature). For 60.8 57. 6. What is the approximate median number of patrons on Day 1 d. The results are shown below: for Sunday. Give the min and max values for Saturday and A group of year 9 students and a group of year 13 students were shown a page with 72 dots on it for three seconds. A business owner wants to compare the Saturday traffic with the Sunday traffic to her website. a. give their approximate values. 4. b. They were then asked to guess how many dots they saw. For each year in Rome state the hottest month. 3. a. Year 13 Year 9 51. He had 2 possible locations with different soil types and slightly different climates.8 Median 51 50 Mode 45 48 Range 55 131 Minimum 28 28 Lower quartile 45 48 Upper quartile Mean a. Give the interquartile range for both year groups. A survey of attendance of students at a movie theatre is carried out on Mondays and Tuesdays over several months. c. In this situation. 5. Tuesday is the night with the greatest variability in the number of patrons. c. Which day of the week did the movie theatre have their maximum number of students attend over the survey period? b.5 55 Maximum 83 159 Number Surveyed 20 27 year 9 there were 3 outliers. The graphs below show the monthly average minimum and maximum temperatures for both Rome and Nairobi for three years from 2007-9. Give the approximate range of weights for each site. which measure of average best represents the data and give a reason. Is Tuesday Day 1 or Day 2 (give reasons)? PAGE 127 . Use the trend lines to determine which day has c. He set up 24 rows of plants at each site and over the year measured the weight of the tomatoes he harvested. the greatest increase in traffic? Give details about any outliers that can be seen in the graph above (week and values). Which city has the largest difference between its highest maximum and lowest minimum and what is it. Pete wanted to set up a tomato growing business. b. He decided to do a 1 year trial to see which site produced the higher yield. a.

(Achieved) 6.4 = 23° (±1) (Achieved) 5. (Achieved) (Achieved) 08: July 09: July/August (same) Rome = 27. (All within 500) (Achieved) b.5 . (Achieved) a. (Achieved) b.48 = 7 Year 13: 60.5 (Achieved) (Achieved) Study Tip: Study Groups Can help with exchange of ideas and with motivation.21 = 5° b. 07: August Site A: 6 . Saturday: Min 0. a. More isn’t always merrier. Small study groups (up to 4) work better. Week 6: Saturday had 0 visitors Week 9: Saturday had 7000 and Sunday 9300 visitors. Max 9300.45 = 15. 100. the outliers pull up the mean. Day 2 .This is because (Achieved) (Achieved) (Achieved) it has the largest inter-quartile range and the longest whiskers. Max 7000. Sunday (Achieved) c. Nairobi: 26 . Day 2 b. NCEA 1. Day 2 c. the more likely you are to get distracted. 110 and 160. PAGE 128 . Sunday : Min 2250. Median . a. a. Height of the person with the smallest arm span = 160 cm (Achieved) c. Number of people with arm-span between 120 and 135 cm = 2 (Achieved) PRACTICE 2. Height of the tallest person on the graph = 201 cm (Achieved) b. 325 d.2 = 6 -7 kg a.the mode never is and in this situation c. (Achieved) c. 3. The larger the study group.4 = 2 kg Site B: 9 .ANSWERS 4. Year 9: 55 .

For approximately half the year. The average maximum temperatures in Nairobi vary from low 20s in July/August each year to high 20s in February each year. the graphs show only monthly averages. Since Tuahu has collected data with two variables (height and armspan). rainfall and wind. However because of Year 9s 3 outliers. a scattergraph is an appropriate way to display his data.5 .48).5 (60. Explain: She has made this claim because the Yr 9 mean is closer to the actual number of dots than the Yr 13. Improvements: Melanie needs to carry out her investigations in a range of classes and schools to make her study more valid. Similarly. The average minimum temperatures in Nairobi remain in the low teens all year. There is also a smaller peak around October and a smaller trough around November/December. In fact. Nairobi’s average minimum temperatures never go below 10°C. The graphs do not support what Richard has been told. a. (Merit) PAGE 132 2. (Excellence) 3. A scattergraph is used to display bivariate data. Also. Nairobi’s average temperatures vary much less so it would feel warmer all year round. The data collection method needs to be free of biases such as students being able to discuss their guesses among themselves during answering and knowing other students’ guesses before answering. The smooth. (Excellence) 1. So there is greater variation in the minimum temperatures in Rome than there is in Nairobi. only at particular times of the year. Rome is colder than Nairobi. a. Problem: Melanie’s claim that Year 9s are better than Year 13s at guessing the number of dots is not a sensible one. The Year 13 median is 51 and Year 9 is 50. whereas Rome would feel much colder during certain months of the year (December to February). (Achieved) d. So there is greater variation in the maximum temperatures in Rome than there is in Nairobi. However. the bigger waves in Rome’s line graphs indicate that both the maximum and minimum temperatures vary more in Rome than they do in Nairobi. It would be sensible for Richard to investigate some of these other factors before making his decision. (Merit) If Richard wants to live somewhere warm.45) but greater consistency in guessing does not mean greater accuracy. Richard NCEA is correct in his claim. Explain: The average minimum temperatures in Rome vary from single digits in January each year to high teens in July/August each year. in one school. Nairobi’s average temperatures are warmer than Rome’s average temperatures. There are other factors that influence how a climate feels. the vertical distance between Rome’s line graphs (typically around 10°C) is smaller than the vertical distance between Nairobi’s line graphs (typically around 13°C). he should choose Nairobi.ANSWERS e. the median is the best measure of average. so they are very similar. (Excellence) . The line graphs show regular waves over year-long periods and there is no upward trend to the graphs. Improvements: Rome is not always warmer. Nairobi’s line graphs show less variation in temperature over a year. while Rome’s average minimum temperatures fall below 10°C for approximately half the year. whereas for Year 13 it is 15. It would be sensible for Richard to look at some daily temperature data to see if there are any significant deviations from the monthly averages. Problem: It is not correct for Richard to believe that the temperature in Rome is higher than the temperature in Nairobi. Nairobi’s average maximum temperatures never go below 20°C while Rome’s average maximum temperatures fall below 20°C for approximately half the year. It allows us to plot points that display both variables in the same graph and thereby determine whether or not there is a relationship (correlation) between the two variables. The Year 9s’ guesses are more consistent. Overall. but also more fluctuation over a year — there are small peaks around February and small troughs around July. The sample size for each is very small and only carried out in one class. pronounced waves formed by Rome’s line graphs indicate a steady rise and fall in average temperatures over a year with peaks around July and troughs around January. such as humidity. Explain: Looking at the graphs. Problem: The average maximum temperatures in Rome vary from low teens in January each year to high 20s in July/August each year. with the Inter-quartile range for Yr 9 being 7 (55 . (Excellence) c. So for approximately half of the year. (Merit) b. There is no evidence to support rising temperatures in Rome.

It may have included the 3 month student holidays when either the students may leave the town or may be working and have more money to attend the movies. His results were only from 1 summer so that may have been a particularly wet or dry. a. sunny or cloudy. (Excellence) 5. Tuahu’s conclusion is valid because • There is a line of best fit. (Excellence) 6. Improvements: However.0kg and for site B is 6. Day 2 has much greater variation in number of customers attending as shown by higher maximum. we do not know which months the survey was carried out over. This is shown by a steeper trendline. windy or still summer. Saturday traffic is increasing slightly as can be seen by the trendline rising from an average of 2000 hits per Saturday to just over 3500. Testing over a few summers with different plant varieties would give a more accurate picture. then Site A appears to be the better option. so further investigation into the validity of Tuahu’s data collection would be sensible. The weekend with Saturday maximum of 7000 and the Sunday maximum of 9300 are both high outliers. (Merit) b. higher lower quartile and higher minimum. lower quartile and median suggest it would be beneficial to run the promotion on Day 2. Average traffic has increased from just over 3000 hits to about 6800. Pete should choose Site B for highest yield. (Merit) PAGE 133 .80) — it is unlikely that someone with a height of 173 cm would have an arm-span as short as 80 cm. Over 100 years there would have been many floods of various sizes which would account for the large whiskers on the upper part of the box and whisker plot. but also has higher median. • Most of the points are close to the line of best fit. Presenting the survey data in another form (such as a time series or dot plot) may give more useful information. (Achieved) c. With river flow there is a minimum flow rate (0) but no maximum rate.CHANCE & DATA b. (160. Sunday traffic is increasing more quickly than Saturday’s. Since the average yield for site A is 5. Explain: Day 1 does have the lower maximum and upper quartile. whereas for Site B the yield difference between highest and lowest is about 6. (Merit) b. Sunday traffic is generally heavier than Saturday as can be seen by a higher Sunday trendline. Problem: Their choice of Day 1 is not sensible. there are a number of outliers with unlikely measurements for a Year 10 student.160) — it is unlikely that someone with a height of 105 cm would have an arm-span as long as 160 cm. Reasons for that could be: • The website has advertised special deals • It is just before Christmas • The weather is bad meaning people are more likely to be inside and going on the internet A Saturday low outlier of just above zero could be caused by: • A special Saturday event or unexpectedly good weather meaning people are outside • The website being down or internet problems meaning people are unable to access the site. From the box and whisker plot neither trends nor outliers can be seen. which suggests a trend of a person’s arm-span being the same as their height. (Merit .2 correct) c. (Excellence) 7. Day 2’s lower minimum. If Pete wants consistent yield. (Excellence) PRACTICE 4. There are three points on the scattergraph that appear to be unlikely measurements: (105. The plant quality (even in the same variety) may vary from year to year and different tomato plant varieties may give different results. a. a. it gives such varying yields from each plant (6. (173. lower minimum and larger lower and upper quartiles suggesting students may be more likely to be persuaded to come out on Day 2 by half price tickets.5kg. However. Pete should use Site A if he wants consistent yield.1kg. Saturday traffic has a wider spread than Sunday as can be seen by the distance of each point from the trendline.5kg) that Pete may be concerned about what will happen under different weather patterns other years. Although the overall yield from Site B is higher. From the graph it can be seen that for Site A the difference between the highest and lowest yield is about 2kg.60) — it is unlikely that someone with a height of 160 cm would have an arm-span as short as 60 cm.

farmers using water for irrigation upstream and climate change may be causing changes in river flow over time. Explain: Over the last one hundred years. Over the one hundred year period 3 months of the year have had flows of around 650 or above and months 1 and 12 have had flows of 700 cumecs at least once. Months 2. Improvements: From box and whisker plots it is not possible to tell how frequently events (such as river flow reaching 700 cumecs) occur. (Excellence) .. in only one month (Month 3) has the river flow gone below 20 cumecs but like (b) above. 4 and 9’s lowest flows are getting close to 20 cumecs. So it would not make economic sense to carry out flood protection work to prevent a 750 cumec flood.b. If the population or water use per person has an upward trend or the river flow has a downward trend. The data also needs to be presented in a form that enables the trend in river flow to be seen and trends in population of the area and water use per person need to be investigated. Problem: The council do not need to do more flood protection work. The council needs to look at the data presented in another form that will give a more accurate indication of the frequency of the river flows reaching 650 cumecs to see if flood protection work needs to be done to prevent the more minor flooding that occurs at 650 cumecs. (Excellence) PAGE 134 c. Then they can get a more accurate indication of the frequency of the river flow dropping below 20 cumecs. They also need to check out the cost of flood protection work in relation to the cost of a flood. it is not possible to tell the frequency of this event. Explain: Over the last one hundred years river flow has never gone above 750 cumecs. Improvements: To get a better idea of how to progress the council needs to get the data presented in a different form. The council may also want to see the data presented in a form which gives river flow trends as factors like removal of bush cover. this would increase the overall water use and thus lower the river making it necessary to look at other water sources. Problem: The council does not need to look at alternative water supplies.

Merit parts give 5 .CHANCE & DATA Study Tip: Understand NCEA You are sitting NCEA so: UNDERSTAND the marking system • Each question is marked out of 8 so attempt all three questions in each topic. • You can get up to 4 marks with Achieved parts.8. Easier parts of the question do not give you any extra marks (but they are a safety net if you’ve made a mistake) PAGE 135 . This gives you the full 7 .6 marks and Excellence gives 7 .8 marks straight away for each question. • If you are aiming for Excellence. do the Excellence parts of the question first.

7. K A. on average. she imagines is the letter she has found on the back of a docket. Alice realises that it will take too long to find an answer by collecting actual dockets. K A. N. 10 i. R A. If Alice can collect the six letters needed to spell Ankara. A. K. R. K and R. 13. A. A. A. A on it. N. On each of the 5 weekdays for 5 weeks Alice finds a discarded docket as she passes the supermarket. N. 8. to be able to spell the word ANKARA. A. N. Using her collection of dockets in (a). She rolls the dice and whatever letter is on top. A. how many times she must roll the dice to spell the word ANKARA. A. A. the letters collected are: NKKRR NAKAR NNAKK NRNAA AKKRR i. she will go in the draw for a holiday to Turkey. A. On the back of each docket is printed one of the letters of the word ANKARA. Once she has all the letters she needs to spell Ankara. Explain why Alice’s experiment is not valid. In the order that she collects them. A. N.co. a city in Turkey. K. A. 22. K. R. N. N. A. A. A. A. A. 10. A. A. A. Alice wonders how many dockets she would have to collect. A. A. 8. R. A. K. A A. R. N. A. a. N. A. N. K. A. A K. The supermarket says that each letter. on average. R. iii. A. R Alice then uses her results to find out how many dockets she needed to spell the whole word of ANKARA. using the proportion of times the event occurs Number of times E occurs Total of events For a complete tutorial on number this topic visit www. A. Alice’s local supermarket is running a competition. . Her results are: 9. She stops her experiment when she has spelt the word Ankara 10 times. N. K.nz The experimental probability of an event E is P(E) = OLD NCEA QUESTIONS 1. Using Alice’s data. what is the probability of Alice getting a K on the next docket? iii. K. A. A. K. N.learncoach. she begins again. 1 is certain) Probability of an event E is written P(E) There are two ways of measuring probability: ▶▶ Theoretical Calculations ▶▶ Experimentally. A. R N. N. N. A. K. K. Using her data. N.PROBABILITY SUMMARY • • • • Probability is a measure of the likelihood or chance of an event occurring Events have a probability between 0 and 1 (0 is impossible. R. A. 8. K. Instead. K. A. R. K. R. A. A. A. how many dockets did Alice collect before she had the whole word of ANKARA? PAGE 136 c. A. How valid is this probability? Give at least 2 statistical reasons for your answer. A. K N. A. b. R. R. A. A. give Alice an answer to her question: “How many dockets would she have to collect. ii. N R. A. N. A. A. R. Complete the table to summarise her data: Letter Frequency A K N 6 R ii. N. to be able to spell the word ANKARA?” Give at least TWO averages. R. K N. N. Alice wants to find out. on average. A. 9. Explain which average you would suggest Alice uses and why. A. is equally likely to be found. she takes a dice and puts the six letters of A. R. N.

9. Therefore.6 = 60% 5 5 5 5 (Achieved) (Achieved) 140 34 b.533 53% (Achieved) 45 36 b. = P = = 10% NCEA 220 1. P(Passed at 18) = = = 0.6 = 60% 5 5 5 5 (Merit) b. the experimental probability calculated in (ii) is close to the theoretical probability and seems to be valid. (Merit) 9 + 7 + 8 + 9 + 8 + 8 + 22 + 13 + 10 + 10 10 104 = = 10.25 60 4 (Merit) b. a. a.25 The frequency table in (i) suggests there is a fairly even distribution of the four letters despite the small sample. (Excellence) b. Assuming that each letter is equally likely to be found. = 60 30 4. = P == 0= . which seems significantly higher than all the other data entries and should be treated as an outlier.10. a.8 80% 5 38 19 (Achieved) P == 0= . = 0.4 10 Median of {7. P(1st in Field) = = 0.10.22} = 9 (Merit) ii.ANSWERS 22 1 3. Alice should use the median because the mean might have been influenced by the data entry 22. a.6333 63% b. a. (Excellence) Mean = 24 8 2. Alice’s experiment is not valid because her dice has A on three of its sides. i. Letter Frequency A 6 K 7 N 6 R 6 (Achieved) 7 = 0. (Merit) iii.56 (2dp) 61 (Merit) . Alice had to collect 13 dockets before she could spell ANKARA.8. P(Girl Passed at = 226 (Achieved) 9. a.9.8. = P = 45 PAGE 138 15 4 = 0= . and the letters printed on previous dockets have no influence on the letter printed on the next docket. Number of losses: = 60 − (14 + 13 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 4) = 24 Probability of losing: 24 2 = = 0.8.4 (Merit) 60 5 3 7. P(CreamWorking) (Achieved) 6.75 5. 10 (Achieved) PRACTICE 3750 5000 = = 0.12 (Achieved) 26 13 b. 48 = 0. the theoretical probability of getting a K on a randomly selected docket is 1/4 = 0. i. P(W or I or A) = P(W) + P(I) + P(A) = 1 1 1 3 + + = = 0. P(Vowel) = P(A) + P(I) + P(U) = 1 1 1 3 + + = = 0. P(Swimming) = = 0.18 b. The median ignores this outlier and will provide a more reliable average.28 25 (Achieved) iii. a.17 (Achieved) 76 P(loose) = 175 25 8.34 (2dp) = ii. a. Number of games at where it was calm: = 60 − (14 + 31) = 15 Probability of it being calm at a game: P(calm) = 15 1 = = 0. This gives a 50% chance of rolling an A and does not reflect the equal likelihood (25%) of finding any of the four letters on the dockets. P(K on next docket) c.13.35 504 72 (Achieved) 41 17) = 0.

ii. g. e.) Each dice has 6 faces. Three different destinations are available. Harley rolls a blue dice and a green dice 100 times and records the results.CHANCE & DATA MULTI LEVEL PROBABILITY SUMMARY This is when more than one event is occurring • Addition Law Probability of E OR F = P(E) + P(F) • Multiplication Law Probability of E AND F = P(E) × P(F) • Probability Trees ▶▶ A tool for working out probabilities ▶▶ Multiply along branches ▶▶ Probabilities of branches from the same point add to 1 e.nz OLD NCEA QUESTIONS 1. (The order of the shapes does not matter. Calculate the probability that John wins flights to two different destinations PAGE 139 .co. f. Harley has an orange dice which has only s and some s on its faces.4 Queenstown 0. Use probability methods to find your answer and explain your reasoning clearly. Estimate the probability that on the next roll he will get: i.5 = 0.1 Kerikeri 0. 2. express the probability that he gets . Estimate the probability that the blue dice shows a if the green dice shows a . and all of the dice are fair. what is the most likely number of faces with a marked on them? Use probability methods to find your answer and explain your reasoning clearly. c. He rolls this orange dice with the green dice 120 times and records the combinations that show up. Harley has a collection of unusual dice. Probability of tails then heads: P(TH) = 0. All flights are chosen at random according to the probabilities in the table. His results are summarised in the table below. Estimate the probability that Harley will not get a on the next roll. which have shapes on each side. ONE and ONE . His results are summarised in the table below. a. Deduce how many s there are on the green dice.5 × 0. Nice Flight airline gives away flights from Wellington as prizes.25 For a complete tutorial on this topic visit www.g. Using a ratio in its simplest form. Estimate the probability that if there are no s showing. The probability of flights going to each of the destinations is shown in the table. there is a showing.5 John wins two separate prizes with NiceFlight. d. Destination Probability Greymouth 0. a and a . On the orange dice.learncoach. b.

8. 9 The other customers all buy petrol. E and F in the ratio 8 : 10 : 7 The probability that a seed germinates in Plot D is 0.1% of the time. • There are 3 female kittens and 1 male kitten. The probability that a seed germinates in Plot A is 0. PAGE 140 a. When the oil pressure is too low. However. b. This scientist expects 390 seeds to germinate from the 600 he planted. 1 of both diesel and petrol customers pay cash for 5 their fuel. When the oil pressure is okay. A cat has four kittens. She does this 80 times. 4. She spins the arrow twice and adds the two scores. What is the probability that the total of the two scores is 30? b. What is the probability that a seed in Plot F germinates? 7. Some of the information is shown on the diagram. the light should come on. by finding and comparing probabilities. How many times would she expect the total to be at least 40? . Explain fully and carefully. the light is on 98% of the time. What is the probability that the next two customers both bought petrol? 5. a. and in Plot B it is 0. If the pressure becomes too low. the light is not always reliable. with the three sectors labelled with scores of “10”. Find the probability that the light is giving an incorrect reading. the light is on 0. “20” and “30”.7 and in Plot E is 0. All others pay by credit card. at random bought petrol and paid by credit card? b. A research scientist plants eleven seeds in Plot A and nine seeds in Plot B. 6. What is the probability that a customer chosen A circular spinner is divided into two quarters and one half.7. • There are equal numbers of female and male kittens. Find the probability that a seed chosen at random germinates. Sue is also playing with the spinner. We know that the oil pressure is too low 1% of the time. Ngaire spins the arrow twice. The oil pressure in a vintage car is noted by a warning light. as shown in the diagram. The scientist then plants seeds in Plots D.3. Assume that each kitten is equally likely to be a female or a male. which of the following is most likely for the four kittens: • There are 4 female kittens. a.8 At a certain garage the probability of a customer 1 buying diesel is .

2 i. A probability tree may help. When the whistle blows. Mei is scared of spiders and will only eat cupcakes with sharks. a.Joseph will cook H and a T . Of those who didn’t have onions.James will cook What is the probability one of the boys will cook? At a fundraising sausage sizzle you were offered onions and tomato sauce as extras It was found 70% had onions and of those 80% has tomato sauce as well. What is the probability of this? b. a. A B C 11. There are: • 2 choices of icing – yellow or green • 2 choices of edible animal decorations – spider or shark • 2 choices of sprinkles – gold or silver. Natalie runs out of silver sprinkles quite quickly so the probability of silver sprinkles is only 0. Will have yellow icing and a shark on the top? ii. a. What is the probability of a randomly chosen person who bought a sausage having tomato sauce with it? b. Troy only eats cupcakes with yellow icing. 10. What is the probability that any random cupcake chosen i. If the coins land with 2 heads up James will cook. Will have a shark on the top? b. If the coins are: TT . What is the chance Mia and Hone are both in area C as shown in the diagram? b.Hayley will cook HH . the children have to freeze. What is the probability her cupcake is green with gold sprinkles? PAGE 141 . Children are running round a playing field. Natalie has made 10 batches of cupcakes for her little brother’s birthday party and decorated them. Tails = T. Heads = H. Hayley and James have two coins and toss these to see who will cook dinner.CHANCE & DATA PRACTICE QUESTIONS 8. 40% didn’t have tomato sauce either. Joseph. A probability tree has been started. What is the probability he gets a cake with a shark and gold sprinkles? ii. What is the probability of a randomly chosen person having a sausage with just one extra (either sauce or onions)? a. What is the probability that both Mia and Hone are in the same area? 9.

35 (2 dp) 49 17 = 0 = .8 = 7.4 + 0.001 = 0.28 g 0. 100 100 (Achieved) 19 + 16 + 7 42 = = 0.4 × 0.02 + 0.42 = 42% b. = 0= (Achieved) 100 14 + 9 23 = = 0.32 + 0.385 + 0.23 = 23% ii. a.106 = 0.e. and the lowest result for suggests that is only on 1 or 2 sides. P(P) × P(P) = 9 × 9 = 81 (Achieved) PAGE 142 6. a.28 g 0.1× 0.6 (64) 168 g = 63. (Merit) 4. 2 [0. They are not. (Merit) 35 e. (Excellence) 2.1× 0.65 = 0.36 = 0.01× 0.7 (8 plants) P(Plot B) = 9 × 0.379 .7 + × 0.65 = 0. 1.5] = 0.224 + 0. The shaded row in the table most closely matches the experimental results.7 = 134. Options (No.7 = 7. (Excellence) 20:120 = 1:6 (Merit) If there were 3 each of and we would expect the frequencies to be approx 1:2:1.07 7% i.00099 (Excellence) = 0. 1 P(4 F ) = 16 4 P (3F ) = 16 6 P(2 F ) = 16 (Merit) (Achieved) 9 5 45 8 8 64 b.8 + × g 600 25 25 25 0.58 3.7 + × 0. 49 49 % d. of each shape) Expected Numbers 1 5 10 60 50 2 4 20 60 40 3 3 30 60 30 4 2 40 60 20 5 1 50 60 10 Therefore the orange die is most likely to have four sides with a marked on them. g. Let g be the germination of plot F.ANSWERS NCEA 5.00119 total seeds seeds germinated Plot D: 192 × 0.8 = 192 Plot F: 168 × g = 63.745 = 75% P= OR P(Plot A) = 11× 0. a.4 (134) Plot E: 240 × 0.8 20 20 = 0.28 g 0.0002 + 0. P(P) × P(CC) = 8 × 4 = 32 P = 0. so it can be said that there are equal numbers of each of and on the green dice – i.75 = 75% 20 b.2 (7 plants) 15 (Merit) P= = 0. 100 100 (Achieved) 17 c. and on the green dice are almost the same for any symbol on the blue dice. 11 9 × 0.5 + 0.379 = g OR Equal male and female most likely. 3 of each. P(Total) = P(D) + P(E) + P(F) 390 8 10 7 = × 0. 7 .6 (Excellence) g = 0.99 × 0.544 + 0. The results for the f. (Merit) = 0.

75 P(HH)= b. 2nd is 20) + P(1st is 20.14 + 0. P(Yellow & Shark) = P(Yellow ) × P(Shark) = 0.3 = 0.4 × 0. 2nd is 1 1 1 1 2 1 = = × + × = 4 4 4 4 16 8 (Merit) 10.375 (Merit) 16 16 4 16 8 P(Mia in C) = 9.18 + 0. i. 10) b. P(Hone in C) = 1 2 1 2 P(Both in C) = P(Hone in C) × P(Mia in C) 1 1 1 = × = = 0.3 × 0. P(Sauce) = P(O + S) + P(No O + S) = 0.6 = 0. P(30) = P(1st is 10.2 + 0.3 × 0.32 (Excellence) a.18 (Merit) ii.8 = 0. P(Green&Gold) = P(Green ) × P(Gold) = 0.75 4 4 4 4 (Merit) PAGE 143 . a.6 = 0.24 (Excellence) ii.25 = 0.8 + 0.3 × 0.8 = 0.7 × 0. i.CHANCE & DATA 7. HT.6 × 0.18 = 0.74 (Merit) b.42 (Merit) b.25 2 2 4 (Merit) b.7 × 0. a.25 4 P(Boys Cooking) = 1 − 0. Equal possible outcomes are: HH. P(Shark) = P(Y & S) + P(G & S) = 0. a. TH..25 (Achieved) 4 1 P(TT) = = 0.56 + 0. Alternative Method Boys will cook if result is HH or HT or TH. TT. P(Both in same area) = P(Both in A) + P(Both in B) + P(Both in C) 1 1 1 1 1 1 =  × + × + ×  4 4 4 4 2 2 1 1 1 6 3 = + + = = = 0. P(1 Extra) = P(O + No S) + P(No O + S) = 0.18 = 0.4 × 0. P(T ≥ 40) = 1 − P(total is 20 or 30) = 1 − P(total 20) − P(total 30) 1 1 2 = 1− × − (from a. P(Shark&Gold) = P(Shark ) × P(Gold) = 0.32 (Excellence) 11. a.6 = 0. 1 = 0.) 4 4 16 1 2 = 1− − 16 16 13 = 16 13 Expected No = × 80 16 (Excellence) = 65 PRACTICE 8. 1 1 1 3 P(HH or HT or TH) = + + = = 0.