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Somalia: Regional Involvement and Implications for US PolicyPaper Presented at theAmerican Enterprise Institute for Public Policy ResearchOctober 4 !""#$y %avid &' ShinnAd(unct Professor Elliott School of International Affairs)he *eorge +ashington UniversityRegional Involvement in Somalia,ountries throughout northeast Africa and the *ulf have been involved in Somalia since it became a failed state in -..-' )he defeat earlier this year of the /arlords in 0ogadishu and the rise of the Islamic ,ourts has resulted in a significant increase in the amount of outside engagement' )his gro/ing interest sometimes meddling by a variety of states in the region has important implications for US policy /ell beyond Somalia' Somalia1s immediate neighbors2Ethiopia 3enya and %(ibouti2have the most direct interest in and concerns about Somalia' ,onflict in Somalia impacts their situation  (ust as unrest inside their borders tends to affect developments in Somalia' 0ovement in  both directions of refugees bet/een Somalia and all three neighbors has a long history' )he security issue is particularly important because large Somali populations live inside 3enya Ethiopia and %(ibouti' Prior to its disintegration 0ogadishu had a policy of actively seeing to incorporate these populations as part of Somalia' )his policy became dormant after -..-' A fe/ of the e5tremists on the Islamic ,ourts recently revived the concept at least in the case of Ethiopia' 3enya also remains concerned about the revival of Somali irredentism' )he self6declared independent Republic of Somaliland separates Somalia from %(ibouti' As a result %(ibouti does not feel the same threat' Somalia1s Immediate 7eighborsEthiopia1s border /ith Somalia and Somaliland e5tends almost -""" miles' )he drought prone and natural gas rich Somali region of Ethiopia most of /hich is no/n as the Ogaden constitutes about one68uarter of the country1s land area' 7ever completely  pacified Ethiopian security forces today face active resistance from the Ogaden 7ational 9iberation ront ;O79< and the United +estern Somali 9iberation ront ;U+S9<' Although based in the Ogaden the O79 and U+S9 almost certainly receive sanctuaryand support in neighboring Somalia' Addis Ababa /orries that a hostile government in 0ogadishu /ould strongly support the O79 and U+S9 and revive Somalia1s earlier goal of encouraging the Somali6inhabited areas of Ethiopia to (oin it' or this reason Ethiopia has supported Abdullahi =usuf1s )ransitional ederal *overnment ;)*< /hichdoes not favor such a policy' Ethiopia also has gro/ing concerns about the rise of the Islamic ,ourts and the support they are receiving from Eritrea a country that is virtually at /ar /ith Ethiopia follo/ing their border dispute' Several of the Islamic ,ourt leaders
 
 previously held senior positions in al6Ittihad al6Islami an organi>ation that acno/ledgedin the mid6-.."s that it conducted terrorist attacs inside Ethiopia' )he most recent report by the 0onitoring *roup on Somalia established by the U7 Security ,ouncil covers the period from 7ovember !""? until April !""#' It states that Ethiopia provided at least three separate consignments of arms including mortars machine guns assault rifles anti6tan /eapons and ammunition to the )* during this  period' Although Ethiopia continues to deny that it has sent any of its troops into Somalia there are credible reports from (ournalists U7 sources and diplomats that limited numbers have appeared in Puntland and the )* capital in $aidoa' )he most recent International ,risis *roup ;I,*< report on Somalia concluded that Ethiopia has  provided military materiel and training to the )* since its inception in !""4' )he I,* added that Ethiopian deployments seem to be intended to protect $aidoa and to establish a buffer >one along part of the Ethiopia6Somalia border' Ethiopia also favors sending a regional peaceeeping force to Somalia as a /ay to prop up the )*' )here are many /ho argue that Ethiopia sees a /ea and disunited Somalia so that it does not pose a security threat' I agree this /ould be Ethiopia1s goal if the only alternative /as a strong united and
hostile
 Somalia' Ethiopia is prepared to accept and may even prefer ho/ever a strong united and
friendly
 Somalia' Such a government /ould be better positioned than a /ea and disunited one to deal /ith groups that threaten Ethiopia1s interests' )he problem for Addis Ababa is that any Ethiopian military  presence inside Somalia either unilaterally or under the guise of a regional peaceeeping mission significantly inflames Somali nationalism and antagonism to/ards Ethiopia' )he leadership of the Islamic ,ourts especially the more e5tremist members has used this argument effectively in recent months to mobili>e Somali support for its agenda' 3enya once had the responsibility for leading the effort by the regional Intergovernmental Authority on %evelopment ;I*A%< to achieve a solution to the  political problems in Somalia' As a result 3enya had a reputation as the honest broer among the seven ;3enya Ethiopia Uganda %(ibouti Eritrea Sudan and Somalia< I*A% countries' ollo/ing the ascendance earlier this year of the Islamic ,ourts 3enya (oined /ith Ethiopia in strong support of the )*' 3enya no/ favors an African  peaceeeping force in Somalia but has not offered to contribute troops' 3enya1s foreign minister has even gone so far as to suggest that an agreement bet/een the )* and the Islamic ,ourts cannot prevent deployment of the peaceeeping force' Recent strong 3enyan support for the )* may be driven by fears that the Islamic ,ourts intend to  pursue incorporation of Somali6inhabited territory in 3enya1s northeastern region /hich shares a 4!?6mile long border /ith Somalia' Separated from Somalia by relatively peaceful Somaliland %(ibouti has more freedom of action than Ethiopia and 3enya in dealing /ith the Islamic ,ourts' In %ecember !""? %(ibouti acno/ledged providing to the )* @""" military uniforms /hich it claimed /ere intended for the police' %(ibouti unlie Ethiopia and 3enya is no/ urging that the )* and Islamic ,ourts reach an understanding at the tals in 3hartoum designed for this purpose' %(ibouti does not support a peaceeeping mission !
 
in Somalia and recently urged that outsiders not interfere in the country' In the past month %(ibouti received a senior delegation from the Islamic ,ourts and seems to have aligned itself /ith Eritrea and Sudan on Somalia' %(ibouti is an over/helmingly 0uslimcountry and increasingly dependent on Arab investment /hich may account for its greater /illingness to accept the Islamic ,ourts' I*A% ,ountries on the Outer RingI*A% members Uganda Sudan and Eritrea are important players in Somalia although they are not neighbors' Until recently Uganda did not sho/ any particular interest in Somalia' )he reasons for this ne/found involvement are unclear but Uganda is the only country so far to offer troops for a regional peaceeeping force in Somalia' In September its parliament approved reportedly conditionally deployment of -""" troops for Somalia' )ogether /ith Ethiopia and 3enya Uganda no/ supports the )*' One of the e5tremist members of the Islamic ,ourts /arned Uganda not to send troops to Somalia because he did /ant a Somali bullet to hit a Ugandan'B Sudan has had representatives in 0ogadishu since the U7 peaceeeping mission ;U7OSO0< arrived in -..@' Initially Sudan seemed most interested in maintaining contact /ith Somali Islamists' )his almost certainly remains part of 3hartoum1s agenda  but its role is e5panding' $oth Sudan and Somalia are members of the Arab 9eague and Sudanese President Omar al6$ashir is the current chairman of the organi>ation' )he Arab9eague is sponsoring the reconciliation tals bet/een the )* and the Islamic ,ourts and$ashir is in charge of the process' 0edia accounts continue to cite Sudan together /ith Uganda as one of the troop contributing countries for a peaceeeping mission to Somalia' Sudan has never publicly confirmed such a commitment' In fact President $ashir reportedly e5pressed his surprise in mid6September at the African Union ;AU< decision to send a force to Somalia' )he chairman of the E5ecutive ,ouncil of the Islamic ,ourts Sheih Sharif said in early September that Sudan had confirmed to him that it /ould not send troops' One can assume that Sudan is sympathetic to the position of Somalia1s Islamic ,ourts' If the )* and the ,ourts reach some ind of agreement Sudan may then be /illing to contribute peaceeepers'Eritrea a country that is about half 0uslim and half ,hristian is playing one of the strangest games in Somalia' Eritrea1s primary concern is EthiopiaC Asmara /ill tae  (ust about any action to harm Ethiopia and Addis Ababa is happy to reciprocate' Eritrea sees Somalia as an opportunity to put additional pressure on Ethiopia by supporting the Islamic ,ourts' According to the last t/o reports of the U7 0onitoring *roup on Somalia covering the period from 0ay !""? to April !""# Eritrea has provided by air and by sea substantial 8uantities of arms to the ,ourts O79 and the governor of 9o/er Shabelle to counter support provided by Ethiopia to the )*' )he 0onitoring *roup carefully and thoroughly documented these deliveries' Eritrea responded that the reports /ere baseless and unfounded'B Eritrea supports the reconciliation process in 3hartoum and opposes a regional peaceeeping mission for Somalia' A senior Eritrean official recently called the AU proposal un/ise and fraught /ith unnecessary complications'B )he )* prime minister charged that Eritrea is assisting the terroristsB in Somalia' @

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