You are on page 1of 12

2016 1 1

1. 2.

2%~4%
80
125 2500 2375
2%~4%
3
30

1970

1986
50%

29%( )
2.1%

European Equity Strategy, 09/20/2016, Deutsche Bank

GDP 2%

1986
S P500
2014
70%

2015 (
10 )

EPS
EPS

12

921
Fed 1220172018
201922016
929
123
(GeorgeMester Rosengren)

:US Economics Outlook, HSBC, 09/06/2016

12

: US Economics Weekly, Citi,09/21/2016

( Thomson One 09/16/16-10/15/16)

2%~3%


: Global Equity Strategy, Credit Suisse, 09/21/2016

2014
-0.5% -0.65%

ROE ROE

ROE ?

1%~1.5%
ECB

M19
M1
ECB
1

M1

Global Equity Strategy, Credit Suisse, 09/21/2016

10

Bloomberg , 10/14/2016

9
1311

9
QE
-0.145% 0.049%

( Thomson One 09/16/16-10/15/16)


2014

46%

CPI
CPI

CPI CPI

106.25%

-
2010

20097
15.4%
8%

GDP
2000 /
GDP 8

Sensex

/ /

- 6.25%
(Patel) 9
(Rajan)
10
1
6.25%6% 5.75%
93.57%3.9%

10100

:India Market Strategy, Credit Suisse, 09/22/2016

:Asia Round-Up, Nomura, 08/12/2016

10

( Thomson One 09/16/16-10/15/16)

: Bloomberg, 10/18/2016

2002

25%

( )

:Is the EM growth cycle turning, Deutsche Bank,


08/26/2016

:GEMS Strategy, Citi, 09/15/2016

92021 FOMC
0.25% 12
50%

1980


(1988-891994-95
1999-20012004-2007)

18

(
)

20-50

:GEMS Strategy, Citi, 09/15/2016


5

( Thomson One 09/16/16-10/15/16)

2014

(Loan Loss Provision


Loans Impairment Reserve)

S&P500

S&P500

52201214

(SIA) 8
2803.5%20135
0.5%SIA

8
6%

WitsView
L7-1
40-49
(40-45 ) 32

S&P500

S&P500

OPEC 1130
50
1130
50 / OPEC

( Thomson One 09/16/16-10/15/16)

Bloomberg, 10/18/2016
6

(EUR/USD)

(EUR/USD)1.17 1.05

11


12
2017

(GBP/USD)

(GBP/USD)1.4 1

3110/7

(USD/JPY)

(USD/JPY)107 100

(AUD/USD)

2017/182%
2017/181.7% 1%
2%
2018

(AUD/USD)0.78 0.74

Bloomberg, 10/18/2016

28%104
76%

( Thomson One 09/16/16-10/15/16)

t h e

a l l o c a t i o n

1 ;2 ( )
3 /
2016 Q4

45%

23%

1 4%

3%

3%

0%

2%

2%

0%

0%

45%

1 0%

7%

3%

3%

0%

29 %

35%

43%

43%

0%

11%

13%

16%

16%

0%

4%

5%

6%

6%

0%

16%

20%

24%

24%

( )

0%

0%

3%

4%

4%

1 0%

5%

1%

1%

1%

0%

16%
45 %

4%

2%
10%

11%

14%

20%

23%

5%

1%
4%
2%

3%

0%

35%

3%

24%

1%
4%

3%

0%

3%

24%
43 %

7%

13%

29%

1%

3%

0%
5%

10 %

45%

6% 1
16%

43 %
6% 1
16%

0%

()

1 . ( )

2.
3.

4.
( )
/ /
5. 1 ;2 ( ) 3

(6.
Thomson One 09/16/16-10/15/16)
8

28/10/2016 %
18161.2

0.1

-0.8

4.2

-1.5

2.2

2.8

4.4

2126.4
5190.1

16.8

-0.7

-1.9

4.0

-2.2

3.0

2.3

5.4

21.1

-1.3

-2.3

3.6

0.5

8.7

2.7

12.1

32.4
61.5

818.9

0.5

-2.0

23.4

6.8

26.9

23.6

27.8

1187.6

-2.5

-5.1

4.6

-2.7

5.0

2.2

1.2

7.9

48007.2

-0.8

1.6

11.7

2.9

4.9

7.8

6.6

17.0

17869.1

-2.1

7.2

53.1

13.1

30.2

43.4

62.2

246.0

64307.6

0.3

10.2

48.3

12.2

19.3

40.2

17.7

18.5
9.6

4289.8

0.7

6.8

16.6

4.2

7.2

12.1

11.4

340.8

-1.0

-0.6

-6.8

-0.3

-0.2

-9.2

1.2

5.7

10696.2

-0.1

1.8

-0.4

3.5

6.5

-1.4

14.7

18.4

4548.6

0.3

2.3

-1.9

2.4

2.7

-7.1

7.5

5.8

6996.3

-0.3

1.4

12.1

4.0

12.1

10.0

6.9

3.9

7908.6

-1.6

-2.8

-10.3

-2.7

-0.7

-11.5

-10.5

-4.0

9201.3

1.1

4.8

-3.6

7.2

1.9

-11.2

-12.2

-7.1

17324.2

0.9

5.6

-19.1

2.8

-6.9

-22.8

-12.4

-10.5
-33.0

992.2

0.6

0.1

31.1

7.0

4.3

17.3

-9.1

78332.9

-0.6

2.4

9.2

3.9

-8.2

-1.4

-2.8

0.9

4527.6

-0.1

2.3

6.6

2.9

-2.8

1.5

-4.2

-10.3

17369.5

0.8

5.6

-8.7

4.8

4.2

-9.0

5.8

21.2

1388.0

1.5

4.9

-10.3

4.9

3.5

-10.9

4.1

16.2

4648.0

0.5

5.0

-1.7

9.1

8.3

-1.0

14.3

36.4

116.8

0.6

3.0

1.1

4.1

7.3

5.3

15.6

26.6

934.6

-1.6

-1.4

5.4

1.5

-17.4

15.6

5.7

13.9

1763.2

-1.3

-3.4

0.9

-5.7

-8.4

1.9

2.7

19.5

5310.4

-1.8

-2.3

0.3

-4.5

1.1

1.4

-3.9

-2.1

6925.6

-0.5

-5.9

9.5

-5.8

1.5

15.7

28.5

41.1

22947.9

-2.8

-1.5

4.7

4.8

8.9

1.4

-4.4

-1.1

3088.1

-1.3

2.8

-12.7

3.7

5.1

-8.7

27.6

44.2

2009.2

-1.9

-1.7

2.4

-0.3

0.8

-1.0

2.3

-1.0

9244.3

-0.8

0.8

10.9

2.9

10.3

8.1

3.0

9.4

126.1

-0.9

-3.5

-2.3

-3.4

1.1

1.0

-2.4

0.6

2808.4

-1.7

-2.1

-2.6

-2.1

-1.1

-6.3

-14.2

-12.5

1669.3

-0.5

1.0

-1.4

1.0

-0.2

0.2

-10.0

-7.6

1494.4

-0.4

0.8

16.0

-1.9

6.4

7.1

-5.7

3.6

5418.1

-0.1

1.0

18.0

3.9

12.0

21.6

6.5

20.1

27930.2

-0.9

0.2

6.9

-0.4

9.1

4.8

0.2

32.0

48.4

-4.1

0.4

30.8

16.4

5.5

4.0

-39.9

-49.7

4831.5

4.7

0.6

2.7

-1.1

-2.5

-7.3

-29.7

-32.7

1571.5

1.9

0.5

-1.7

1.6

1.4

-4.2

-24.2

-13.6

1277.0

1.0

-2.9

20.3

-5.5

-1.2

11.8

8.8

-3.5

189.2

-0.1

1.6

7.4

4.5

2.5

-3.3

-30.4

-31.9

834.0

-1.0

-4.7

74.5

27.1

18.6

15.7

-41.6

-44.5

: Bloomberg,28/10/2016

( Thomson One 09/16/16-10/15/16)

31/10/2016

98.487 98.34801
1.0966
1.0985
104.86
104.74
1.2186
1.2185
0.7602
0.7599
0.7146
0.7163
1.3414
1.3398
18.9801 18.9844
3.2007
3.1661
63.009
62.713
3.1102
3.1068
66.7787 66.8675
6.7696
6.7789
1145.4
1144.73
31.538
31.62
1.3918
1.3919
35.003
35.085
13049
13051
1277.04
1275.5
48.7
49.72

0.14%
-0.17%
-0.11%
0.01%
0.04%
-0.24%
-0.12%
0.02%
-1.08%
-0.47%
-0.11%
0.13%
0.14%
-0.06%
0.26%
0.01%
0.23%
0.02%
0.12%
-2.05%

98.756
1.0882
104.18
1.2238
0.7611
0.7138
1.3286
18.553
3.1565
62.3722
3.08
66.89
6.7752
1131.48
31.678
1.3932
35.011
13013
1264.52
50.55

-0.27%
0.77%
-0.65%
-0.42%
-0.12%
0.11%
-0.95%
-2.25%
-1.38%
-1.01%
-0.97%
0.17%
0.08%
-1.22%
0.44%
0.10%
0.02%
-0.28%
0.99%
-3.66%

95.463
1.1235
101.35
1.2972
0.7664
0.7286
1.3127
19.3852
3.2153
63.03
2.9999
66.465
6.6718
1101.25
31.362
1.3631
34.673
13051
1315.75
47.05

3.17%
-2.39%
-3.35%
-6.06%
-0.81%
-1.92%
-2.14%
2.13%
0.46%
0.03%
-3.55%
-0.47%
-1.44%
-3.85%
-0.56%
-2.06%
-0.94%
0.02%
-2.94%
3.51%

95.53
1.1163
102.39
1.3179
0.7536
0.7172
1.3124
18.8647
3.2923
66.6237
2.9903
67.035
6.6439
1108.18
31.63
1.3422
34.77
13071
1351
41.14

3.10%
-1.76%
-2.36%
-7.53%
0.88%
-0.36%
-2.16%
-0.61%
2.86%
5.74%
-3.86%
0.38%
-1.86%
-3.25%
0.29%
-3.56%
-0.67%
0.17%
-5.47%
18.38%

-0.15%
0.96%
14.65%
-17.30%
4.34%
4.61%
3.17%
-9.34%
23.85%
16.80%
-6.21%
-0.94%
-4.08%
2.36%
4.41%
1.92%
3.09%
5.66%
20.31%
31.48%

0.50%
0.00%
0.30%
0.25%
1.50%
2.00%
0.50%
4.74%
14.00%
8.25%
7.25%
6.75%
4.35%
5.00%
1.38%
0.50%
1.50%
6.50%
10:53 AM

: Bloomberg, 31/10/ 2 0 1 6

28/10/2016

10
10
10
10

1.849
0.167
1.260
(0.042)

10 %

5.293
4.677
5.548
1.974

10 %

1.358
(0.189)
0.518
(0.287)
: Bloomberg, 28/10/2016

1. Citigroup Investment Research, Citigroup Global Markets, Citigroup Global Wealth Management Citigroup Alternative Investments
( ) ( )

2. ( ) ; ( )
( ) ( )

3. /
( )
4. (i) (ii) ( ( ) ) (iii)
( ) ( )

: ( )
:
: (1 10) 1 13
: 201 6 1 1 1
: ( )
981
Citi, Citibank and Citi and Arc Design are registered service marks of Citigroup Inc. Citigold and Citibank are registered service marks of Citigroup Inc. or Citibank, N.A.