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University of Khartoum

Faculty of Engineering
Department of Civil Engineering

Mater of Structural Engineering

Numerical tech. & probability theory


Assignment (1)

Prepare by:

Suleiman Ali Suleiman Mohammed

Feb.2010

Question 1:
1) What is a statistical Hypothesis?
Solution:
Statistical Hypothesis a statistical test provides a mechanism
for making quantitative decisions about a process or
processes.
2) What type of errors is associated with hypothesis testing?
Solution:
Types of errors:
-Type (1) error occurs when we reject a true null
hypothesis.
-Type (2) error occurs when we dont reject a false null
hypothesis.
3)

When we accept a null hypothesis what does this mean and


when we reject a hypothesis what does this mean.
Solution:
If we reject the null hypothesis, we conclude that there is
enough evidence to infer that the alternative hypothesis is
true.
If we do not reject the null hypothesis, we conclude that
there is not enough statistical evidence to infer that the
alternative hypothesis is true.

4) Light bulbs have a 10% not working Probability. Check the


probability that not more than 4 out of 20 will not work:
Using Binominal
Using Normal Distribution
Solution:
Using Binominal:
n= 20, p= 0.1, q= p-1=0.9, x 4

X= 0,1,2,3,4

P(x=0) = 0.1216

P(x=1) = 0.2702

P(x=2) = 0.2852

P(x=3) = 0.1901

P(x=4) = 0.0898
P(x 4)= P(0)+ P(1)+ P(2)+ P(3)+ P(4) = 0.9568
Thus, its about 96% probable that pat will not more than
4 out of 20 will not work.
Using Normal Distribution:
n= 20, p= 0.1, q= p-1=0.9

Area related (Z=1.4907) = 0.93198 = 93.2%

Question 2:
The pumping Rate of Two Concrete Pumps are as follows:
Concrete
Concrete Pump1
Pump2
40.3
47
38.7
34
34.4
38
43.0
47
41.5
32
37.0
25
38.0
54
36.5
1. Check the claim of the first pump manufacturer that the
average pumping rate is more than 40 m3/hr.
2. The 90%, 95% and 99% Limits for the mean pumping rate
for the first pump.
3. The First pump manufacturer that it pumping rate is as good
as the second.
Solution:
1-n= 8, = 0.05, =40
Concrete Pump1 in table:
X1= 38.675
S1= 2.818
H0: =40
H1: >40

t0.05,8= 1.8946
Since t = -1.3298< 1.8946 (t.05), we do not reject H0
The average pumping rate is not more than 40 m3/hr
2-a-90% = 0.1, t0.05= 1.8946

n= 8, S= 2.818

2-b-95% = 0.05, t0.025= 2.365

n= 8, S= 2.818

2-c-99% = 0.01, t0.005= 3.4995

n= 8, S= 2.818

3- Concrete Pump1& Concrete Pump2:


Concrete Pump1 in table:
X1= 38.675

S1= 2.818
Concrete Pump2 in table:
X2= 39.571
S2= 10.179
H0: 1-2=0
H1: 1-20
Check equal or not equal using F test
H0:
H1:
F0.025,7,6= 5.695

They are not equal

V= 6.81 = 7
t= -0.2256
t0.025,7= 2.3646
Since t = -0.2256<2.3646 (t.025,7), we reject H0 in favor of
H1
Concrete pump1 is not as Concrete pump2

Question 3:
The level of contamination in a certain river was measured for 10
weeks along with the concentration of two sources A and B as
follows:
Contaminatio
n Level

18.2 16.0 12.2 19.8 11.4 13.7 12.2 19.8 11.4 15.2

Contaminatio
nA
Contaminatio
nB

3.0

19.8 16.0 12.2 0.8

24.3 9.9

0.8

24.3 6.1

19.8 12.2 22.0 2.3

22.0

3.8

6.8

2.3

20.5 3.0

1) Is the level of contamination related more to Concentration A


or B.
2) determine the percentage variation in the level of
contamination explained by concentration of A and B.
Solution:
1) More to Concentration A or B
n=10

CONT.
18.2

A
3

B
24.3

CONT*
A
54.6

CONT*B
442.26

CONT2
331.24

16
12.2

19.8
16

9.9
0.8

316.8
195.2

158.4
9.76

256
148.84

19.8
11.4

12.2
0.8

24.3
6.1

241.56
9.12

481.14
69.54

392.04
129.96

13.7

19.8

3.8

271.26

52.06

187.69

12.2
19.8
11.4

12.2
22
2.3

2.3
20.5
3

148.84
435.6
26.22

28.06
405.9
34.2

148.84
392.04
129.96

A2
9
392.0
4
256
148.8
4
0.64
392.0
4
148.8
4
484
5.29

B2
590.49
98.01
0.64
590.49
37.21
14.44
5.29
420.25
9

sum

15.2
149.
9

22
130.
1

6.8

334.4

101.8

2033.6

103.36
1784.6
8

231.04
2347.6
5

484
2320.
69

46.24
1812.0
6

n( xy ) ( x )( y )

( n( x ) ( x ) 2 )(n( y 2 ) ( y ) 2 )
2

CORRELATION BETWEEN COT. AND A


X=CONT, y=A
rA =0.331708
CORRELATION BETWEEN COT. AND B
X=CONT, y=B
rB =0.92583
SINCE RB IS CLOSER TO 1.0 THIS MEAN THE CONT. IS MORE
RELATED TO CONCE.B
2) Determine the percentage variation
rA =0.331708=r12
rB =0.92583= r 13
r

n( xy ) ( x )( y )

(n( x 2 ) ( x ) 2 )( n( y 2 ) ( y ) 2 )

A
3
19.8
16
12.2
0.8
19.8
12.2
22

B
24.3
9.9
0.8
24.3
6.1
3.8
2.3
20.5

A*B
72.9
196.02
12.8
296.46
4.88
75.24
28.06
451

A2
9
392.04
256
148.84
0.64
392.04
148.84
484

B2
590.49
98.01
0.64
590.49
37.21
14.44
5.29
420.25

SUM

2.3
22

3
6.8

6.9
149.6

130.1

101.8

1293.86

5.29
484
2320.
69

9
46.24
1812.06

CORRELATION BETWEEN A AND B


X=A, y=B
rAB = -0.04378= r 23

r12.3 = 0.9858651
Percentage variation in the level of contamination
explained by concentration of A and B = 98.6%

Question 4:
Explain the type of errors that can occur in hypothesis testing
(illustrate using diagrams). Explain how the probability of error
can be minimized when the acceptance of the null hypothesis can
endanger human lives.
1. To determine the strength of concrete 50 samples in a dam
were taking with the following results.
Number of
Range
samples
<35.2
1
35.2 - 37
4
37 - 38.8
11
38.8 - 40.6
10
40.6 - 42.4
12
42.4 - 44.2
8
>44.2
4

If the mean salinity was 19.8 and standard deviation S= 2.8.


Check the hypothesis that the distribution of strength is normal.
Solution:
Explain the type of errors
A Type I error occurs when we reject a true null hypothesis (i.e.
Reject H0 when it is TRUE)
A Type II error occurs when we dont reject a false null hypothesis
(i.e. Do NOT reject H0 when it is FALSE)
1-n= 50, S= 2.8, mean=19.8
H0: not normal distribution
H1: normal distribution

inter
val
<35.2
35.237
3738.8
38.840.6
40.642.4
42.444.2
>44.2
sum

fre
q
1
4
11
10
12
8
4
50

mi
d.
34.
3
36.
1
37.
9
39.
7
41.
5
43.
3
45.
1

mid*fr
eq.

(mid.
xbar)
2

f*(mi
d.xbar)
2

z=(l.lxbar)/sig
ma

34.3

36.58

36.58

-2.45

144.4

18.05

72.2

-1.72

416.9

5.99

65.89

-0.99

397

0.42

4.2

-0.26

498

1.33

15.96

0.47

346.4

8.71

69.68

1.2

180.4

22.58
1627.
96

90.32
354.8
3

1.92

2017.4

X=40.35, =2.469

area
from
char
t
0.00
71
0.04
27
0.16
11
0.39
74
0.68
08
0.88
49
0.97
26

abs(ar
ea0.5)
0.4929
0.4573
0.3389
0.1026
0.1808
0.3849
0.4726
0.5

inter
val
prob.
0.035
6
0.118
4
0.236
3
0.283
4
0.204
1
0.087
7
0.027
4

expecte
d.=n
p(x)

esti
.E

(fofe)^2
/fe

1.78

0.5

5.92

0.67

11.82

12

0.08

14.17

14

1.14

10.21

10

0.4

4.39

1.8

1.37

49.66

50

13.59

df=5,=.05

We do not reject H0