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Faculty of Engineering

Department of Civil Engineering

Assignment (1)

Prepare by:

Feb.2010

Question 1:

1) What is a statistical Hypothesis?

Solution:

Statistical Hypothesis a statistical test provides a mechanism

for making quantitative decisions about a process or

processes.

2) What type of errors is associated with hypothesis testing?

Solution:

Types of errors:

-Type (1) error occurs when we reject a true null

hypothesis.

-Type (2) error occurs when we dont reject a false null

hypothesis.

3)

when we reject a hypothesis what does this mean.

Solution:

If we reject the null hypothesis, we conclude that there is

enough evidence to infer that the alternative hypothesis is

true.

If we do not reject the null hypothesis, we conclude that

there is not enough statistical evidence to infer that the

alternative hypothesis is true.

probability that not more than 4 out of 20 will not work:

Using Binominal

Using Normal Distribution

Solution:

Using Binominal:

n= 20, p= 0.1, q= p-1=0.9, x 4

X= 0,1,2,3,4

P(x=0) = 0.1216

P(x=1) = 0.2702

P(x=2) = 0.2852

P(x=3) = 0.1901

P(x=4) = 0.0898

P(x 4)= P(0)+ P(1)+ P(2)+ P(3)+ P(4) = 0.9568

Thus, its about 96% probable that pat will not more than

4 out of 20 will not work.

Using Normal Distribution:

n= 20, p= 0.1, q= p-1=0.9

Question 2:

The pumping Rate of Two Concrete Pumps are as follows:

Concrete

Concrete Pump1

Pump2

40.3

47

38.7

34

34.4

38

43.0

47

41.5

32

37.0

25

38.0

54

36.5

1. Check the claim of the first pump manufacturer that the

average pumping rate is more than 40 m3/hr.

2. The 90%, 95% and 99% Limits for the mean pumping rate

for the first pump.

3. The First pump manufacturer that it pumping rate is as good

as the second.

Solution:

1-n= 8, = 0.05, =40

Concrete Pump1 in table:

X1= 38.675

S1= 2.818

H0: =40

H1: >40

t0.05,8= 1.8946

Since t = -1.3298< 1.8946 (t.05), we do not reject H0

The average pumping rate is not more than 40 m3/hr

2-a-90% = 0.1, t0.05= 1.8946

n= 8, S= 2.818

n= 8, S= 2.818

n= 8, S= 2.818

Concrete Pump1 in table:

X1= 38.675

S1= 2.818

Concrete Pump2 in table:

X2= 39.571

S2= 10.179

H0: 1-2=0

H1: 1-20

Check equal or not equal using F test

H0:

H1:

F0.025,7,6= 5.695

V= 6.81 = 7

t= -0.2256

t0.025,7= 2.3646

Since t = -0.2256<2.3646 (t.025,7), we reject H0 in favor of

H1

Concrete pump1 is not as Concrete pump2

Question 3:

The level of contamination in a certain river was measured for 10

weeks along with the concentration of two sources A and B as

follows:

Contaminatio

n Level

18.2 16.0 12.2 19.8 11.4 13.7 12.2 19.8 11.4 15.2

Contaminatio

nA

Contaminatio

nB

3.0

24.3 9.9

0.8

24.3 6.1

22.0

3.8

6.8

2.3

20.5 3.0

or B.

2) determine the percentage variation in the level of

contamination explained by concentration of A and B.

Solution:

1) More to Concentration A or B

n=10

CONT.

18.2

A

3

B

24.3

CONT*

A

54.6

CONT*B

442.26

CONT2

331.24

16

12.2

19.8

16

9.9

0.8

316.8

195.2

158.4

9.76

256

148.84

19.8

11.4

12.2

0.8

24.3

6.1

241.56

9.12

481.14

69.54

392.04

129.96

13.7

19.8

3.8

271.26

52.06

187.69

12.2

19.8

11.4

12.2

22

2.3

2.3

20.5

3

148.84

435.6

26.22

28.06

405.9

34.2

148.84

392.04

129.96

A2

9

392.0

4

256

148.8

4

0.64

392.0

4

148.8

4

484

5.29

B2

590.49

98.01

0.64

590.49

37.21

14.44

5.29

420.25

9

sum

15.2

149.

9

22

130.

1

6.8

334.4

101.8

2033.6

103.36

1784.6

8

231.04

2347.6

5

484

2320.

69

46.24

1812.0

6

n( xy ) ( x )( y )

( n( x ) ( x ) 2 )(n( y 2 ) ( y ) 2 )

2

X=CONT, y=A

rA =0.331708

CORRELATION BETWEEN COT. AND B

X=CONT, y=B

rB =0.92583

SINCE RB IS CLOSER TO 1.0 THIS MEAN THE CONT. IS MORE

RELATED TO CONCE.B

2) Determine the percentage variation

rA =0.331708=r12

rB =0.92583= r 13

r

n( xy ) ( x )( y )

(n( x 2 ) ( x ) 2 )( n( y 2 ) ( y ) 2 )

A

3

19.8

16

12.2

0.8

19.8

12.2

22

B

24.3

9.9

0.8

24.3

6.1

3.8

2.3

20.5

A*B

72.9

196.02

12.8

296.46

4.88

75.24

28.06

451

A2

9

392.04

256

148.84

0.64

392.04

148.84

484

B2

590.49

98.01

0.64

590.49

37.21

14.44

5.29

420.25

SUM

2.3

22

3

6.8

6.9

149.6

130.1

101.8

1293.86

5.29

484

2320.

69

9

46.24

1812.06

X=A, y=B

rAB = -0.04378= r 23

r12.3 = 0.9858651

Percentage variation in the level of contamination

explained by concentration of A and B = 98.6%

Question 4:

Explain the type of errors that can occur in hypothesis testing

(illustrate using diagrams). Explain how the probability of error

can be minimized when the acceptance of the null hypothesis can

endanger human lives.

1. To determine the strength of concrete 50 samples in a dam

were taking with the following results.

Number of

Range

samples

<35.2

1

35.2 - 37

4

37 - 38.8

11

38.8 - 40.6

10

40.6 - 42.4

12

42.4 - 44.2

8

>44.2

4

Check the hypothesis that the distribution of strength is normal.

Solution:

Explain the type of errors

A Type I error occurs when we reject a true null hypothesis (i.e.

Reject H0 when it is TRUE)

A Type II error occurs when we dont reject a false null hypothesis

(i.e. Do NOT reject H0 when it is FALSE)

1-n= 50, S= 2.8, mean=19.8

H0: not normal distribution

H1: normal distribution

inter

val

<35.2

35.237

3738.8

38.840.6

40.642.4

42.444.2

>44.2

sum

fre

q

1

4

11

10

12

8

4

50

mi

d.

34.

3

36.

1

37.

9

39.

7

41.

5

43.

3

45.

1

mid*fr

eq.

(mid.

xbar)

2

f*(mi

d.xbar)

2

z=(l.lxbar)/sig

ma

34.3

36.58

36.58

-2.45

144.4

18.05

72.2

-1.72

416.9

5.99

65.89

-0.99

397

0.42

4.2

-0.26

498

1.33

15.96

0.47

346.4

8.71

69.68

1.2

180.4

22.58

1627.

96

90.32

354.8

3

1.92

2017.4

X=40.35, =2.469

area

from

char

t

0.00

71

0.04

27

0.16

11

0.39

74

0.68

08

0.88

49

0.97

26

abs(ar

ea0.5)

0.4929

0.4573

0.3389

0.1026

0.1808

0.3849

0.4726

0.5

inter

val

prob.

0.035

6

0.118

4

0.236

3

0.283

4

0.204

1

0.087

7

0.027

4

expecte

d.=n

p(x)

esti

.E

(fofe)^2

/fe

1.78

0.5

5.92

0.67

11.82

12

0.08

14.17

14

1.14

10.21

10

0.4

4.39

1.8

1.37

49.66

50

13.59

df=5,=.05

We do not reject H0

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