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Spatial Analysis at CIAT

Glenn Hyman (Colombia), Andy Jarvis (Colombia)


Andrew Farrow (Africa) , Peter Laderach (Central America)
Decision and Policy Analysis, CIAT
a.farrow@cgiar.org
9th June 2010

www.ciat.cgiar.org Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


Spatial Analysis at CIAT
• Read all about it
• GIS in the Mega-Programs
• Future Labs – Future Work

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


Read all about it
• Terra-i
• Global Poverty Maps
• Downscaled Climate Change data
• ArcGIS Server applications

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


• What: An eye on habitat change
• Who: The Nature Conservancy, CIAT,
University of applied Sciences of Western
Switzerland (HES-SO), Kings College London
• Maps at www.terra-i.org
• How…

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


Cleaning of
NDVI using Inputs:
HANTS
MODIS NDVI & ‘Quality’
TRMM Rainfall
K-means to distribute
in various components WorldClim Temperature

Methods:
Model
training Cleaning – HANTS algorithm
Clusters – reduce computation
Bayesian Neural Network Training –
rainfall/NDVI
Range of accumulated probabilities

Output:
Land Use change probability
Deforestation and Flood detection

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


Terra-i

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


• Direct usage for developing negotiation position
of Colombia in Copenhagen
• September 2009 Colombia were going to COP15
with a figure of 100,000Ha/year deforestation
• Terra‐i analysis identified MINIMUM
180,000Ha/year, most likely 250‐300,000Ha/year
• Discussions underway for to become a 1st tier
monitoring tool for National Parks

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


Global Poverty Maps
• Compile all the different poverty maps
• Merge them together into a single developing
country data set
• Make the adjustments from national poverty lines to
$1.25 a day and two dollar a day poverty lines
• Make the adjustment to a standard 2005 date
• Use the headcount ratio (percent population that is
poor) with global population maps to calculate the
number of poor

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Global Poverty Maps

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


Downscaled climate change data
http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/gcmpage
• Assume geographies of changes in climates don't vary too much at
regional scales and relationships between different variables will
remain the same in the future
• Empirical downscaling approach instead of re-modelling the climate
patterns using an RCM (Regional Climate Model)
– Calculation of anomalies (if they're not provided directly by IPCC) by
simply subtracting each variable's future values from the baseline
(both provided by IPCC)
– Interpolation of anomalies to a 30 arc-seconds resolution (approx.
1km)
– Addition of the interpolated anomalies to the current distribution of
climates in WorldClim, for temperature we make an absolute sum, but
for precipitation (as there are differences between the GCM baseline
and our WorldClim baseline), we use the relative difference

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


Downscaled climate change data

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


ArcGIS Server Apps

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


1. Atlas of spatial data relevant to
Generation Challenge Program
2. Seasonal Drought Index –
animations of water stress
throughout the growing season
3. Drought timing for agronomic
screening – tool for planning,
cultivar trials
4. Genebank accessions – in the
context of constraints to
production

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


• Land-use change analysis for REDD
• Visual interpretation of land-use for 1990, 1997 and 2007
• Digital photography and GPS for field validation
• Google fusion tables, Google maps and ArcGIS server
• Input to opportunity costs analysis of avoided deforestation
• Similar analysis for Cameroon (IITA), Indonesia (CIFOR)

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


GIS in the Mega-Programs
Potential Models (not mutually exclusive)
• Original CSI model
• DAPA model
• Realistic/opportunistic model
• CSI tax

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


GIS in the Mega-Programs
Original CSI model
• IWMI – data management and coordination
• IFPRI – impact assessment
• CIMMYT – global dimension of crop varieties
• ICARDA – natural resource degradation
• Poverty mapping – CIAT

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


GIS in the Mega-Programs
DAPA model
• Strategic research (CIAT-HQ) – big team,
infrastructure, well integrated with HQ crop
teams
• Applied research (Africa, CAM) – small team,
well integrated with regional crop teams and
reaching end users

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


GIS in the Mega-Programs
Realistic/opportunistic model

MP 6.4 MP 6.3
MP 7.2

MP 7.1

MP 1.1

MP 3.3 MP 3.2 MP 1.3


MP 1.1

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


GIS in the Mega-Programs
Realistic/opportunistic model

• Centres still responsible for fiscal policy


(indirect costs, admin, HR)
• Ad Hoc inclusion in mega-programs (based on
mandates)

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


GIS in the Mega-Programs
CSI Tax
• General tax to enable core functions of CSI
such as coordination, meeting expenses and
seed money for strategic proposal
development

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


Future Work - Future Labs

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


Future Work - Future Labs

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


Future Work - Future Labs
Site specific agriculture
• The hypothesis
– If it were possible to compile the information on what the
farmer did and characterize the conditions of a large
number of these experiments it would be possible to
deduce optimum practices for specific conditions

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


Future Work - Future Labs
Site specific agriculture
• The Concept
– Production systems are highly heterogeneous
– We need massive amounts of data to understand them, in
order to act and provide recommendations
– Every farm is essentially an experimental station
– Every crop cycle, management practice is an event (trial, n)
– Farmer’s learn and adapt from an n+ 1 + 1 …..
– Learning from collective knowledge far more powerful (n of
1,000s)
– But, all ‘trials’ go uncompiled – we learn, but not enough

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor


Future Work - Future Labs
Site specific agriculture
• The project – at last!
– Mango, Avocado, Citrus and Plantain
– Colombia
– ASOHOFROCOL, Corpoica, CIAT

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor