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Rachel Martin

Period 4
Crystal Ball Essay

Election Prediction Sheet


Due: Wednesday, November 2, 2016 / Thursday, November 3, 2016

State Presidential Election Prediction: Moosylvania 694,458


Copy and paste the table if you have multiple states
State, District Florida 17-22
Candidate (Party)

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

Gary Johnson

Popular Vote %

49.57%

44.62%

3.81%

Popular Vote Count

468,842

438,371

52,652

Congressional Election Predictions


Copy and paste as many tables as you need
State, District Florida, District 17
Candidate (Party)

April Freeman (D)

Thomas Rooney (R)

John Sawyer III

Popular Vote %

39.74%

58.46%

1.8%

Popular Vote Count 297,115

437,075

134,576

State, District Florida, District 18


Candidate (Party)

Randy Perkins (D)

Brian Mast(R)

Carla Spalding

Popular Vote %

53.87%

43.52%

2.61%

Popular Vote Count 402,962

325,541

193,235

State, District Florida, District 19


Candidate (Party)

Robert Neeld (D)

Francis Rooney (R)

David Byron

Popular Vote %

52.06%

47.62%

.32%

Popular Vote Count 403,124

368,743

2477

State, District Florida, District 20


Candidate (Party)

Alcee Hastings (D)

Gary Stein(R)

Popular Vote %

62.8%

37.2%

Popular Vote

482,157

285,608

Rachel Martin
Period 4
Crystal Ball Essay

State, District Florida, District 21


Candidate (Party)

Lois Frankel(D)

Paul Spain (R)

Michael Trout

Popular Vote %

51.34%

47.12%

1.54%

Popular Vote Count 389,255

357,260

11,676

State, District Florida, District 22


Candidate (Party)

Ted Deutch (D)

Andrea Leigh
McGee(R)

Popular Vote %

54.72%

42.72%

2.56%

Popular Vote Count 399,621

311,985

18,695

Introduction

Rachel Martin
Period 4
Crystal Ball Essay
The 2016 presidential election has been the most unusual election the United States has ever seen.
With Donald Trump and his outlandish views and Hillary Clinton, the first ever female presidential
nominee, professional pollers could not have been more confused and baffled. Florida, one of the largest
swing states, is critical in this election for its large number of electoral votes. Districts 17-22 have a
variety of people with beliefs that contribute differently to this election. Ive listed predictions about my
state and districts below based on previous knowledge of demographics and calculations that have led me
to specific data points. To calculate my district predictions I added percentages from two critical
demographics to the percentage that that demographic voted last year. I predicted that the elderly and
hispanics will vote more this year because of different aspects of each candidate.

Demographic Factor Influence


Two demographics that will have an impact on the Presidential and congressional elections in
Florida, districts 17-22, are the elderly and hispanics. Florida is known for attracting retired citizens and
districts 17-22 clearly show this trend. In all six districts the highest percentages of age are from 45 and
up ("My Congressional District"). Older citizens are more likely to vote and participate in politics. Older
citizens are also more likely to have more conservative view points than other age brackets. This tendency
is critical for this presidential election because while Donald Trump is the Republican candidate, he
doesnt embody the conservative opinions that a lot of republicans agree with, such as social security and
trade ("Here Are the Places Where Donald Trump and the Republican Party Disagree"). Trump might not
win the vote of these older republicans but the elderly are still more likely to participate in politics and
will probably still vote republican in higher numbers for congressional elections because there arent as
many unusual candidates, ticket splitting their votes. There is a very large number of Hispanics
throughout Florida, specifically in districts 17-22 ("My Congressional District"). Trump has repeatedly
talked about how he is against immigration into the United States from southern american countries. This
attitude will push hispanics to come out and vote against Trump, whether it be for Clinton or a third party

Rachel Martin
Period 4
Crystal Ball Essay
candidate. Minorities tend to vote and participate at lower rates and so Hispanics will probably vote at the
same rate that they have previously for congressional elections in Florida.

Issue Influence
Two issues that are important in Florida, districts 17-22, are health care and immigration because,
as we already know, districts 17-22 have lots of elderly and hispanics.
Health care is a critical issue for the lives of the elderly and will affect the way the elderly in
these districts will vote. Health care provides outpatient care, trips to the emergency room, treatment in
the hospital for inpatient care, mental health and substance use disorder services, prescription drugs, lab
tests ("Whats Covered in the Health Insurance Marketplace"). With the growing of age, these services
can be extremely pertinent for those who require such treatment. Trump would like to broaden
healthcare access, make healthcare more affordable and improve the quality of the care available to all
Americans ("Health Care Reform to Make America Great Again"). This means making everyone pay for
health care without any intervention from the government, but improving the quality and accessibility of
health care. If the elderly in Florida, districts 17-22, do not agree with what Trump is saying, they will
vote for him less. Clinton would like to bring down healthcare costs for families, ease burdens on small
businesses, make sure consumers have the choices they deserve . . . deal with the skyrocketing out-ofpocket health costs, and particularly runaway prescription drug prices ("Health Care"). This means
making healthcare more affordable through government funded programs. If the elderly in Florida,
districts 17-22, are against this way of paying for their health care, fewer elderly will vote for Clinton.
The same trends can be said for congressional elections, such as the race for congress in district 18. Brian
Mast, the republican retiree running for congress believes Health care in America would be best
improved by allowing small businesses and voluntary associations to join together to get the same
insurance discounts as large corporations ("Brian Mast"). Randy Perkins, the democrat running for
congress would like to protect the promises we have made to our seniors and fight against anything that

Rachel Martin
Period 4
Crystal Ball Essay
threatens Social Security and Medicare ("Issues"). If the elderly in Florida, districts 17-22, agree more
with one of these men on the topic of health care, he will get more votes from the elderly.
Immigration is an issue that will have a huge impact on the presidential and congressional
elections because Hispanics make up the majority of minorities in Florida, districts 17-19 and 21-22 ("My
Congressional District"). As of 2013, 19.4% of Floridas population is foreign born and the three main
countries these immigrants come from are Cuba, Haiti and Colombia ("Florida"). Whether the hispanics
in these districts are immigrants themselves or are the third generation of a family of immigrants,
immigration greatly affects this demographic and will change the way they vote for presidential and
congressional elections. Trump would like to Begin working on an impenetrable physical wall on the
southern border, on day one (and wants) anyone who illegally crosses the border be detained until they
are removed out of our country. Hispanics who have family members that are not in the US legally will
not vote for a man who will kick them out of our country. Clinton will work to fix our broken
immigration system and stay true to our fundamental American values: that we are a nation of
immigrants, and we treat those who come to our country with dignity and respectand that we embrace
immigrants, not denigrate them ("Immigration Reform"). Hispanics with family members in the US who
are trying to become will vote for Clinton. The same trends will be seen with congressional elections.
Mast supports requiring immigrants who are unlawfully present to return to their country of origin
before they are eligible for citizenship ("Brian Mast's Issue Positions). Perkins has very similar views
and therefore, hispanics in district 18 probably wont vote for either candidate because neither them
support immigration.

Voter Turnout

Rachel Martin
Period 4
Crystal Ball Essay
Two demographics that will vote differently than they have have in the past are the elderly and
hispanics. Because Clinton is slightly more right than Obama and the elderly tend to have more
conservative view points, they will vote more during this election. In the 2012 election, around 70% of
people over 60 years old voted ("Voter Turnout Demographics") but, since Florida has a higher
percentage of elderly and I was also accounting for people between 45-60, I estimated that this year 3%
more elderly would vote. I then found 3% of Floridas elderly population that had voted and added that to
the original number of elderly that voted in 2012. I did the same process for hispanic voters. In the 2012
election, around 42% of hispanics voted ("Voter Turnout Demographics"). Since Floridas largest
minority population is Hispanic and Trump is so openly against immigration, I estimated that 10% more
hispanics are going to vote in this upcoming presidential election. I found 42% of the hispanic population
of my districts combined, and then found 10% of that number and added it to the 42% that had actually
voted. I predict that Florida, districts 17,19 and 21 will vote Trump because they have high numbers of
white and uneducated people and they voted strongly republican in past elections. I predict that Florida,
districts 18, 20 and 22, will vote for Clinton because they higher numbers of urbanization, education and
income. As a whole, my classmates and I predict that Florida will vote Trump by at least 100,000 popular
votes.

Comparison
Two districts that are different in some aspects and similar in others between Florida, districts 1722, are district 17 and district 20. District 17 has 82.59% white, 52.17% have a high school diploma or
less and the lowest percentage of urbanization throughout all six districts ("My Congressional District).
District 20 has 55.17% African American, 50.96% have a high school diploma or less and the second

Rachel Martin
Period 4
Crystal Ball Essay
highest urbanization ("My Congressional District"). The differences between these two districts is the
race and urbanization data. District 17 is more conservative because whites and rural people tend to be a
part of the ideology. District 20 is more liberal because African Americans and urban people tend to be a
part of that ideology. The two districts, however, do have one similarity and that is the lowest rates of
education. For district 17 this trend can be credited to a certain lifestyle. In more rural areas, there tends to
be more family owned and run farms so not a lot of people go to college or even complete high school. In
district 20, the low levels of education can be attributed to systematic racism. In a district where the
majority of citizens are a minority that is largely discriminated against in most aspects of our society, a
lower level of education for this district is no surprise. Because of the demographics of these two districts,
it can be predicted that district 17 will vote for Trump and district 20 will vote for Clinton.

Conclusion
Whatever happens on Tuesday, November 8 will change the way our country is run for the next
four years. Demographics such as age, race, income and education are extremely helpful clues for
predicting whats to come. Swing states, like Florida, are one of the hardest states to predict results for but
at least now my classmates and I can anticipate for whats going to happen in the next week.

Works Cited
"Brian Mast's Issue Positions." VoteSmart.org, votesmart.org/candidate/political-courage-test/
brian-mast.
"Brian Mast." My Palm Beach Post, apps.mypalmbeachpost.com/kycp2016/candidate/brian-mast.
"Florida." Map the Impact of Immigration across the Nation, www.maptheimpact.org/state/florida.
"Health Care." HillaryClinton.com, www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/health-care.
"Health care Reform to Make America Great Again." DonaldJTrump.com,

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Period 4
Crystal Ball Essay
www.donaldjtrump.com/positions/healthcare-reform.
"Here Are the Places Where Donald Trump and the Republican Party Disagree." Los Angeles Times,
www.latimes.com/politics.
"Immigration." DonaldJTrump.com, www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/immigration.
"Immigration Reform." HillaryClinton.com, www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/immigration-reform.
"Issues." Randy Perkins for Congress, www.randyperkinsforcongress.com/issues-extended.
"My Congressional District." United States Census Bureau, www.census.gov/mycd.
"Randy Perkins." Numbers USA, www.numbersusa.com/candidate-comparison/candidate/2016/house/
Randy-perkins.
"Voter Turnout Demographics." United States Election Project, www.electproject.org/home/
voter-turnout/demographics.
"Whats Covered in the Health Insurance Marketplace." HealthCare.gov, www.healthcare.gov/blog/
10-health-care-benefits-covered-in-the-health-insurance-marketplace.

Crystal Ball Rubric


Directions: Attach this to the back of your essay, after your Works Cited page.
Introduction and
Conclusion

Introduction describes strategy for making


predictions.
Conclusion describes plausible implications of
predictions.

Demographic
Factor Influence

CLEAR AND LOGICAL CLAIMS made about


impact of 2 demographic factors on Presidential election
and the Congressional elections (may be different)
Logical CONNECTIONS DRAWN EXPLICITLY
between all claims and supporting evidence.
THOROUGH ANALYSIS of impact of
demographic factors on Presidential AND Congressional
elections

_____/5

_____/10

Rachel Martin
Period 4
Crystal Ball Essay

Issue Influence

Voter Turnout

DESCRIBES CLEARLY why TWO (2) issues are


important in districts
The stances of congressional or presidential
candidates on BOTH issues identified accurately.
Analysis of the impact of each stance on election
supported by RELEVANT and SALIENT evidence.
EXPLICITLY connects BOTH issues to their
impacts on presidential race and congressional races.
BOTH data and quotes used effectively.
ACCURATELY describes TWO (2) historical
trends in turnout for two distinct demographic groups.
Connection between turnout rates and election
results based on reasoning CLEARLY INFORMED by
ACCURATE understanding of voting tendencies of each
demographic group.
Prediction of 2016 election impact logically
SYNTHESIZES KNOWLEDGE of demographic changes
and relative stances of candidates, polling, or media.

Comparison
(This may or may
not be incorporated
into another
section)

A demographic difference between two districts is


CLEARLY identified, described ACCURATELY, and an
impact of this difference is LOGICALLY inferred.
Down-ballot impact of presidential race is
REASONABLY ASSESSED based on demographics, issue
analysis or past elections.

Works Cited &


Clarity

ALL ideas that are not the student's own are


followed by a parenthetical citation of the title or author.
BOTH demographic data and media sources are
used multiple times.
ALL works cited, in correct MLA format, at the
end are credible and correspond to all the sources cited in
student's response.

Total

_____/10

_____/10

_____/5

_____/5
_____/45