2030 REGIONAL GROWTH FORECAST UPDATE

City of San Diego

POPULATION AND HOUSING (2004 to 2030)
2004 to 2030 Change
Numeric
Percent
361,110
28%
336,713
27%
24,397
49%
23,244
70%
1,153
7%

2004
1,295,147
1,245,672
49,475
33,033
16,442

2010
1,365,130
1,303,738
61,392
43,797
17,595

2020
1,514,336
1,448,395
65,941
48,346
17,595

2030
1,656,257
1,582,385
73,872
56,277
17,595

Total Housing Units
Single Family
Multiple Family
Mobile Homes

490,266
285,453
199,188
5,625

518,063
290,608
221,902
5,553

574,254
298,710
269,673
5,871

610,049
297,759
306,655
5,635

119,783
12,306
107,467
10

24%
4%
54%
0%

Occupied Housing Units
Single Family
Multiple Family
Mobile Homes

470,637
276,604
188,772
5,261

496,747
280,718
210,832
5,197

546,835
286,960
254,441
5,434

585,161
288,540
291,354
5,267

114,524
11,936
102,582
6

24%
4%
54%
0%

4.0%
3.1%
5.2%
6.5%

4.1%
3.4%
5.0%
6.4%

4.8%
3.9%
5.6%
7.4%

4.1%
3.1%
5.0%
6.5%

0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.0

3%
0%
-4%
0%

2.65

2.62

2.65

2.70

0.05

2%

Total Population
Household Population
Group Quarters Population
Civilian
Military

Vacancy Rate
Single Family
Multiple Family
Mobile Homes
Persons per Household

HOUSEHOLD INCOME (real 1999 dollars, adjusted for inflation)
2004 to 2030 Change
Numeric
Percent

2004

2010

2020

2030

Households by Income Category
Less than $15,000
$15,000-$29,999
$30,000-$44,999
$45,000-$59,999
$60,000-$74,999
$75,000-$99,999
$100,000-$124,999
$125,000-$149,999
$150,000-$199,999
$200,000 or more
Total Households

57,248
78,579
76,635
62,005
51,628
55,989
34,231
18,515
18,535
17,272
470,637

58,643
80,267
79,135
64,621
54,391
59,594
37,123
20,866
21,453
20,654
496,747

59,180
82,609
83,031
69,095
59,550
67,044
43,260
25,873
28,199
28,994
546,835

57,493
81,829
84,647
71,968
63,828
73,818
49,340
30,934
35,270
36,034
585,161

245
3,250
8,012
9,963
12,200
17,829
15,109
12,419
16,735
18,762
114,524

0%
4%
10%
16%
24%
32%
44%
67%
90%
109%
24%

Median Household Income
Adjusted for inflation ($1999)

$50,529

$52,040

$55,550

$59,300

$8,771

17%

ADVISORY:
This forecast was accepted by the SANDAG Board of Directors in September 2006 for distribution and use in planning and other studies. The forecast reflects the
likely distribution of growth based on the currently adopted plans and policies of the 18 cities and the most recent information from the County of San Diego's
general plan update (GP 2020).
Some data presented here may not match 2000 Census information published by the U.S. Census Bureau for the following reasons: sample census data have been
controlled to match 100 percent count (Summary File 1) data; and some minor adjustments were made (such as correcting the location of housing units that were
erroneously allocated by the Census Bureau to roads and open space) to more accurately reflect the region’s true population and housing distribution.
Source: 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update, September 2006
SANDAG
www.sandag.org

Fall 2006
San Diego Forecast
Page 1 of 4

POPULATION BY AGE
2004 to 2030 Change
Numeric
Percent
361,110
28%
2,531
3%
9,628
12%
2,256
3%
4,658
9%
3,626
8%

2004
1,295,147
89,625
81,169
88,244
49,632
44,694

2010
1,365,130
89,356
86,591
82,037
52,143
46,508

2020
1,514,336
92,442
91,021
88,558
52,797
46,188

2030
1,656,257
92,156
90,797
90,500
54,290
48,320

20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44

101,094
112,973
116,770
105,618
101,836

108,857
118,163
117,135
107,345
95,863

110,818
130,914
126,497
114,590
102,987

116,770
131,370
129,138
126,485
109,944

15,676
18,397
12,368
20,867
8,108

16%
16%
11%
20%
8%

45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 61
62 to 64

89,840
75,656
61,420
19,336
24,686

92,796
86,677
75,330
26,533
35,406

94,711
88,932
89,710
34,230
48,194

101,654
96,949
93,467
37,270
50,990

11,814
21,293
32,047
17,934
26,304

13%
28%
52%
93%
107%

65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 and over

35,138
30,915
27,632
21,806
17,063

42,358
31,475
25,897
21,532
23,128

67,584
51,637
33,307
22,510
26,709

83,937
71,549
55,780
39,580
35,311

48,799
40,634
28,148
17,774
18,248

139%
131%
102%
82%
107%

33.4

34.2

35.8

38.0

4.6

14%

2010
1,365,130
410,025
955,105
570,066
88,719
5,626
219,178
17,145
3,780
50,591

2020
1,514,336
520,211
994,125
544,289
88,564
7,314
257,693
22,167
4,667
69,431

2030
1,656,257
601,906
1,054,351
553,682
84,626
8,238
285,723
23,342
5,628
93,112

Total Population
Under 5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 17
18 to 19

Median Age

POPULATION BY RACE AND ETHNICITY
Total Population
Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
White
Black
American Indian
Asian
Hawaiian / Pacific Islander
Other
Two or More Races

2004
1,295,147
343,741
951,406
608,455
92,691
4,331
193,365
5,488
3,737
43,339

2004 to 2030 Change
Numeric
Percent
361,110
28%
258,165
75%
102,945
11%
-54,773
-9%
-8,065
-9%
3,907
90%
92,358
48%
17,854
325%
1,891
51%
49,773
115%

GROWTH TRENDS IN TOTAL POPULATION
Pop Growth Rate
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2004-2010

2010-2020
City of San Diego

Source: 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update, September 2006
SANDAG
www.sandag.org

2020-2030
Region

Fall 2006
San Diego Forecast
Page 2 of 4

DAYTIME POPULATION
2004
1,295,147
1,469,203
-174,056

Total Population
Daytime Population
Difference

2010
1,365,130
1,448,660
-83,530

2020
1,514,336
1,598,815
-84,479

2030
1,656,257
1,757,025
-100,768

2004 to 2030 Change
Numeric
Percent
361,110
28%
287,822
20%
73,288
-42%

DAYTIME POPULATION TRENDS
Population
2,000,000
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
2004

2010
Total Population

2020
Daytime Population

2030

EMPLOYMENT1
Employment
Civilian Employment
Military Employment

2004
812,028
782,245
29,783

2010
880,326
850,543
29,783

2020
956,165
926,382
29,783

2030
1,010,157
980,374
29,783

1.60

1.64

1.61

1.61

Employment/Housing Ratio 2

2004 to 2030 Change
Numeric
Percent
198,129
24%
198,129
25%
0
0%
0.01

1%

Notes:
1 - The number of jobs within this area.
2 - Civilian employment per housing unit.

EMPLOYMENT/HOUSING RATIO AND MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN 2030
$59,300

1.61

$62,598

1.32

Employment/Housing Ratio
City of San Diego

Source: 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update, September 2006
SANDAG
www.sandag.org

Median Household Income (99$)
Region

Fall 2006
San Diego Forecast
Page 3 of 4

LAND USE1
2004 to 2030 Change
Numeric
Percent
0
0%

Total Acres

2004
219,305

2010
219,305

2020
219,305

2030
219,305

Developed Acres

199,418

203,461

206,984

208,455

9,037

5%

269

487

547

622

352

131%

Single Family

38,458

40,303

42,075

42,008

3,550

9%

Multiple Family

11,112

11,606

12,677

13,243

2,131

19%

Mobile Homes

572

558

500

399

-173

-30%

Other Residential

500

495

489

488

-12

-2%

Low Density Single Family

Mixed Use

62

119

122

124

61

99%

Industrial

11,479

12,105

12,793

13,343

1,863

16%

Commercial/Services

12,740

13,235

13,852

14,142

1,402

11%

Office

1,939

2,070

2,193

2,282

343

18%

Schools

5,329

5,612

5,821

5,944

614

12%

Roads and Freeways
Agricultural and Extractive 2

30,842

30,866

30,866

30,866

24

0%

8,545

8,347

7,222

6,995

-1,551

-18%

Parks and Military Use

77,569

77,659

77,827

78,002

433

1%

13,121

9,078

5,554

4,083

-9,037

-69%

Low Density Single Family

Vacant Developable Acres

1,947

1,786

1,741

1,700

-247

-13%

Single Family

3,352

1,500

207

103

-3,249

-97% .

Multiple Family

1,341

872

272

11

-1,330

-99%

Mixed Use

65

4

3

3

-62

-95%

Industrial

2,853

2,200

1,503

1,033

-1,820

-64%

Commercial/Services

1,302

892

445

168

-1,133

-87%

Office

328

238

137

63

-265

-81%

Schools

663

414

222

129

-534

-81%

Parks and Other

466

369

222

68

-398

-85%

Future Roads and Freeways

803

803

803

803

0

0%

6,767

6,767

6,767

6,767

0

0%

24.8

25.7

26.7

27.4

2.6

10%

9.6

9.7

10.2

10.7

1.1

12%

Constrained Acres
Employment Density
Residential Density

4

3

Notes:
1 - Figures may not add to total due to independent rounding.
2 - This is not a forecast of agricultural land, because the 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update does not account for land that may
become agricultural in the future. Also, some types of development that occur on agricultural land, such as low density single
family residential, may not preclude the continuation of existing agricultural use.
3 - Civilian employment per developed employment acre (industrial, retail, office, schools, and half of mixed use acres).
4 - Total housing units per developed residential acre (single family, multiple family, mobile home, other, and half of mixed use acres).

Source: 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update, September 2006
SANDAG
www.sandag.org

Fall 2006
San Diego Forecast
Page 4 of 4