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3Urbanization and Its Consequences
5Xizhe Peng
6Population Research Institute, Fudan University, China
8Xiangming Chen
9Center for Urban and Global Studies, Trinity College, US
11Yuan Cheng
12Population Research Institute, Fudan University, China
14Keywords: urbanization, population size, megacities, rural population, urban
15population, self-generated or endogenous urbanization, industrialization,
16modernization theory, dependency/world-system theory, rural-urban imbalance, the
17global urban hierarchy, global cities, urban localities, percentage the labor force in
18industry, urban hierarchy, sectoral inequality, rural to urban migration, urban primacy,
19growth and wealth distribution, overurbanization, underurbanization, demographic
20natural increase, urbanization-environment relationship, job creation, informal sector,
21housing, spatial form, education, health.
241. Definition and Background
252. Urbanization Theory
263. Importance Dimensions of Urbanization
273.1 Urban Place and Hierarchy
283.2 Urban Primacy
293.3 Overurbanization vs. Underurbanization
303.4 Natural Increase and Migration
314. Consequences of Urbanization
324.1 Urbanization and the Environment
334.2 Urbanization, Job Creation, and the Informal Sector
344.3 Urbanization, Housing, and Spatial Form
354.4 Urbanization, Education, and Health
365. Conclusions
40To show a general picture about urbanization and its consequences, we introduce the
41most common concept of urbanization and review the urbanization history briefly.
42Dedicated to the development of the urbanization, four mainstreams of urbanization
43theories and their respective pros and cons have been discussed.
44While urbanization is a powerful master process of long historical duration, current
45vibrancy, and even stronger future impact, it is not monolithic or unidimentional. On
46the contrary, urbanization carries several important dimensions that collectively and
47individually produce macro and micro impacts on the society and everyday life. We

48introduce and explore a number of these dimensions with a heavy demographic

49emphasis through illustrative research findings and empirical examples, which also
50help pave the way for us to examine the socioeconomic consequences of urbanization.
51While it is not always possible to fully disentangle the mutual causation between
52urbanization and the other major processes such as rapid population growth,
53industrialization/deindustrialization, social transformation, and so on, it is forever
54important and necessary to identify a range of significant consequences of
55urbanization. Among thousands of consequences, we select the aspects of
56environments, job creation, housing, education and health as the spotlight for our
57discussion. How these consequences may play out in rapidly urbanizing countries that
58remain less developed and thus less equipped to deal with them are also emphasized.
601. Definition and Background
61By definition, urbanization refers to the process by which rural areas become
62urbanized as a result of economic development and industrialization.
63Demographically, the term urbanization denotes the redistribution of populations from
64rural to urban settlements over time. However, it is important to acknowledge that the
65criteria for defining what is urban may vary from country to country, which cautions
66us against a strict comparison of urbanization cross-nationally. The fundamental
67difference between urban and rural is that urban populations live in larger, denser, and
68more heterogeneous cities as opposed to small, more sparse, and less differentiated
69rural places.
70To locate the origin of urbanization today, we go back in time to identity the earliest
71form of urban life as beginning in the Middle and Near Eastnear what is today
72Iraq--around 3,500 BC. In other words, the oldest urban communities known in
73history began approximately 6,000 years ago and later emerged with the Maya culture
74in Mexico and in the river basins of China and India. By as early as the thirteenth
75century, the largest cities in the world were the Chinese cities of Changan (Xian
76today) and Hangzhou, which had over one million people. And London didnt reach
77one million people until the 1700s. However, until the nineteenth century, constrained
78by the limits of food supply and the nature of transportation, both the size and share of
79the worlds urban population remained very low, with less than three percent of the
80worlds population living in urban places around 1800 (Clark, 1998).
81Sparse and often ambiguous archeological and historical record (Grauman, 1976)
82indicates that the urban population fluctuated between four and seven percent of total
83population from the beginning of the Christian era until about 1850. In that year, out
84of a world population of between 1.2 and 1.3 billion persons, about 80 million or 6.5
85percent lived in urban places. While 80 million was a large number then, they were
86dispersed over hundreds of urban places worldwide. In 1850, only three cities,
87London, Beijing, and Paris, and more than a million inhabitants; perhaps 110 cities
88had more than 100,000 inhabitants (Golden, 1981). Of the 25 largest cities then, 11
89were in Europe, eight in East Asia, four in South Asia, and only two in North
91During the century 1850-1950, there was, for the first time in human history, a major

92shift in the urban/rural balance. In his classic work The Growth of Cities in the
93Nineteenth Century (1899), A. Weber provided a historical account for the limited
94level of urbanization at the global scale. Only three regions in Great Britain, North95West Europe, and the USA were more than 20 percent urban in 1890. Urbanization in
96the first half of the twentieth century occurred most rapidly and extensively in Europe,
97the Americas, and Australasia. The number of large cities (city has more than 100,000
98inhabitants ) in the world increased to 946, and the largest city New Yorkhad a
99population of 2.3 million in 1950, while urbanization proceeded very slowly in much
100of the rest of the world. Although only a quarter of the worlds total population lived
101in urban places in 1950, urbanization in the developed countries had largely reached
102its peak (Davis, 1965).
103The acceleration of world urbanization since 1850 partly reflects a corresponding
104acceleration of world population growth; but urbanization is not merely an increase in
105the average density of human settlement (Lowry, 1990). For example, in 1960, nearly
106all less urbanized regions of the world had low rates of rural outmigration under 1
107percent annually and high rates of urban immigration 1.5 to 3.2 percent annually
108(Lowry, 1990). With a few exceptions, urban and rural rates of natural increases were
109about the same, yet urban growth rates were two to five time above rural growth rates,
110reflecting the strong effect of rural-to-urban migration in regions with relatively small
111urban sectors.
112The urbanization of the developing world began to accelerate in late twentieth century
113(Timberlake, 1987), although there was no clear trend in overall urban growth in less
114developed countries due to inconsistent definition of urban and the lack of quality in
115their census data. According to the United Nations, the levels of urbanization in 1995
116were high across the Americas, most of Europe, parts of western Asia and Australia.
117South America was the most urban continent with the population in all but one of its
118countries (Guyana) being more urban than rural. More than 80 percent of the
119population lived in towns and cities in Venezuela, Uruguay, Chile and Argentina.
120Levels of urban development were low throughout most of Africa, South and East
121Asia. Less than one person in three in sub-Saharan Africa was an urban dweller. The
122figure was below 20 percent in Ethiopia, Malawi, Uganda, Burkina Faso, Rwanda and
123Burundi. An estimated 40 percent of Chinas 1.2 billion people and 29 percent of
124Indias 0.96 billion lived in cities and towns. The Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan was
125reckoned to be the worlds most rural sovereign state, with only six percent of its
126population living in urban places.
127The transition from the twentieth to the present century marked a new and more
128striking era of global urbanization. In 2008 the world crossed that long-awaited
129demographic watershed of half of the people on earth living in urban areas. Further
130acceleration of urbanization going forward is likely to raise the share of the worlds
131urban population to 75 percent by 2050, significantly higher than the mere 10 percent
132in 1900. While the USA, Britain, and Germany have already surpassed 75 percent
133urban and wont exceed 90 percent by 2050, newly industrializing countries like
134South Korea and Mexico, which were half-way urbanized at 50 percent in 1950, are
135likely to pass 75 percent by 2030. Moving along a steeper upward trajectory, China
136will urbanize from 20 percent in 1980 to over 60 percent around 2030. Chinas
137urbanization from the 1980s on reflects the global shift of the worlds urban
138population from developed to developing countries, which will account for about 80

139percent of the worlds urbanites by 2030 doubling from 40 percent in 1950 (Soja and
140Kanai, 2007).
141Another salient aspect of this intensified urbanization is the accelerated growth of
142million-plus cities, which grew from only two (London and Beijing) around 1800 to
14316 around 1900 to roughly 70 in 1950, to approximately 180 by 1975, and then soared
144to over 450 in 2005. Of this number, China claimed almost 100, India about 40, while
145the USA and Europe had 40 respectively, and so did the African continent, with 57
146million-plus cities in Latin America and the Caribbean. While London was the first
147and only megacity of 10 million people around 1900, the list expanded to over 20 in
1482005. In addition, while only three of the worlds largest cities with five million or
149more people were in developing countries, eight of the 10 largest cities and 15 of the
15020 megacities of 10 million people in 2005 were in developing countries (Soja and
151Kanai, 2007). The trend of mega-urbanization will become stronger in developing
152countries, especially like India and China, which is expected to have more than 220
153million-plus cities and 25 cities with five million people by 2025
154(, April 6, 2008).
155While urbanization has intensified in terms of the growing megacities, the overall rate
156of urban growth has consistently declined in most world regions in the past half
157century and probably in the coming several decades (see Figure 1). Therefore, the
158rapid rates of urban population growth are no longer the most pressing concern but the
159absolute population size of the huge urban centers, especially those in Asia and Africa.
160Figure 1. Average Annual Rate of Change of the Urban Population, by Region, 1950-2030

1632. Urbanization Theories
164Theories on urbanization have been around for such a long time that they have
165blended into and intersect with theories that also pertain to cities, industrialization,
166and more recently, globalization. At the risk of being subjective and circumvent, we
167introduce and discuss four such theories, which provide both earlier and recent
168explanations for why and how urbanization occurs. First, there is what may be labeled
169the theory on self-generated or endogenous urbanization. This theory suggests that
170urbanization requires two separate prerequisites--the generation of surplus products

171that sustain people in non-agricultural actives (Childe, 1950; Harvey, 1973) and the
172achievement of a level of social development that allows large communities to be
173socially viable and stable (Lampard, 1965). From a long temporal perspective, these
174changes took place simultaneously in the Neolithic period when the first cities
175emerged in the Middle East (Wheatley, 1971) as mentioned earlier. A much later
176period in which these two preconditions interacted strongly was the late eighteenth
177century when the rise of industrial capitalism led to the emergence of urban societies
178in Great Britain, North-West Europe and North America (Pred, 1977).
179In a demographic sense, this theory focuses on the rural-urban population shift as the
180foundation of urbanization but it identifies industrialization as the basic driver behind
181the movement of rural population to urban areas for factory jobs. The historical
182evidence undoubtedly bears this out. Before the Industrial Revolution in Great Britain,
183no society could be described as urban or urbanized. And all countries, primarily in
184the West, that began to industrialize rapidly after Great Britain became highly
185urbanized by the mid-twentieth century, which was followed by the accelerated
186industrialization and then urbanization in the rest of the world through the last century
187and into the present. If we focus on cities instead of urbanization, this theory accounts
188for the endogenous conditions that facilitate the transition from pre-industrial to
189industrial cities, first in the West and then in the rest of the world, in an uneven
190manner. Perhaps the first theoretical perspective that remains relevant today in light of
191the close relationship between industrialization and urbanization, it suffers from the
192drawback of focusing narrowly on the rural-urban shift within countries as the key to
193urbanization. Besides the authors cited above, this theoretical tradition was enriched
194by scholars like Kinsley Davis in the 1950s through the 1970s (Davis, 1951, 1965,
1951969, 1972).
196The second theory on urbanization actually emerged from a broader theoretical school
197known as the modernization theory that became prevalent and influential from the
1981950s through the 1970s. While overlapping with the first theory in the timing of
199development, modernization theory had a wider set of assumptions and scope of
200influence (see So, 1990 for a comprehensive critique of modernization theory).
201Looking at urbanization through the lens of modernization, first, the present state of
202urbanization in any given society is set by its initial state at the onset of
203modernization. Secondly, technology is fundamentally more important than a
204societys social organization in shaping urbanization. Finally, the path and pattern of
205urbanization within and between developed and developing countries are most likely
206to converge through cultural diffusion, despite breeding inevitable social disequilibria
207(Kasarda and Crenshaw, 1991).
208We could trace the intellectual underpinning of the modernization view on
209urbanization in developing countries to an even earlier theoretical paradigm, namely,
210human ecology. While developed to describe the structure and evolution of the
211American city, primarily Chicago in the 1920s-1930s by Robert Park and others,
212human ecology is based on strong assumptions about the interactive role of population
213dynamics, market competition, material technology (e.g., transport infrastructure), and
214the built environment in making and remaking urban life (Hawley, 1981; Orum and
215Chen, 2003). These assumptions became the predictive elements in how
216modernization theory would view subsequent developing-country urbanization as
217being driven by industrialization, technological progress, information penetration, and

218cultural diffusion. This optimistic prospective view was very developmentalist in

219heralding the more positive outcomes of accelerated urbanization in the developing
220world, but only to be challenged by the more depressing reality of economic and
221spatial inequalities, as well as other social problems from urbanization in poor
222countries (Smith, 1996).
223As modernization theory failed to account for both the conditions and consequences
224of urbanization in developing countries, it opened the door to a compelling theoretical
225alternativethe dependency/world-system perspective on urbanization. Advanced by
226Frank (1969) and Wallerstein (1979), as well as others like Goldfrank (1979),
227dependency/world-system theory links recent changes in the roles and organizations
228of the economies of developing countries to the growth and extension of capitalism in
229the capitalism world system. From this world-systemic perspective, urbanization can
230be seen as an internal locational response to global economy. First, dependency
231theorists assume that a uniquely capitalist development pattern exists, asserting that
232capitalism is a unique form of social organization. Second, capitalism requires a
233certain social structure, which is characterized by unequal exchange, uneven
234development, individual social inequality, core-periphery hierarchies, and dominance
235structure. Finally, dependency theory models social organization, technology and
236population dynamics as endogenous factors in development and urbanization that are
237constrained by exogenous forces (Timberlake, 1987). The spread of capitalism to and
238its entrenchment in the developing world is the most recent stage in the development
239of capitalism as a world economic system (Chase-Dunn, 1989). It is a result of
240changes in the ways in which wealth is accumulated, and the evolution of the world241system of nations (see Table 2). Dependency theory also suggests that
242underdevelopment is a result of the plunder and exploitation of peripheral economies
243by economic and political groups in core areas (Hette, 1990).
244View from the dependency/world-system perspective, urbanization in developing
245countries, to the extent it occurs and at what speed, is a major spatial outcome of
246global capitalism and its own spatial organization. This is an inherently uneven
247process leading to geographic disparities between urban and rural areas and between
248cities, particularly so if taking into account the unequal conditions at the start of
249urbanization. Empirical studies, whether explicitly from this theoretical perspective or
250not, have borne out the serious undesirable consequences of rapid urbanization in
251developing countries such as rural-urban imbalance, lopsided city hierarchy, housing
252segregation, and income inequality both within and across nations (Chen and Parish,
2531996; Findley, 1993; Linn, 1982; Smith and London, 1990; Todaro, 1981). Besides
254challenging directly the basic assumptions and predictions of modernization theory
255for urbanization, the dependency/world-system theory goes a long way in
256accentuating the external, and often negative, impact of the capitalist global economy
257on domestic urbanization in developing countries. This powerful insight from the
2581970s laid the ground work for a more systematic global perspective on urbanization,
259especially on the rise of networked world or global cities in the 1990s and beyond.
260As the debate between modernization and dependency/world-system theories on
261urbanization continued from the 1970s into the 1980s, world-wide urbanization itself
262began to take on the striking feature of a growing number of megacities becoming
263more functionally influential and structurally linked. This prompted geographer John
264Friedmann to advance a research agenda for world cities in the early-mid 1980s

265(Friedmann, 1986; Friedmann and Wolff, 1982), suggesting that world cities are a
266small number of massive urban regions at the apex of the global urban hierarchy that
267exercise worldwide control over production and market expansion. With their global
268control functions directly reflected in the structure of their production sectors and
269employment, world cities also are major sites for the concentration and accumulation
270of international capital. This new focus on world cities marked a theoretical extension
271from the world-system perspective by highlighting the study of individual or a
272network of cities for understanding broader urbanization trends and tendencies.
273The globalization of urbanization theories didnt stop there. Sociologist Saskia
274Sassen, with the publication of the book The Global City: New York, London, and
275Tokyo in 1991, brought a definitive touch to the study of the global city through a
276sharp conceptualization and a systematic comparison of three such cities. According
277to Sassen, global cities function as 1) highly concentrated command points in the
278organization of the world economy; 2) key locations for finance and specialized
279services, which have replaced manufacturing as the leading industries; 3) innovative
280sites of production in these leading industries; and 4) markets for the products and
281innovations of these industries. From Sassens perspective, the hallmark of a global
282city is the growth and extent of its producer services, which include accounting,
283banking, financial services, legal services, insurance, real estate, computer and
284information processing, etc. While not a theory on urbanization in the same sense as
285the other theories, the global city perspective has moved the theorizing of urbanization
286both backward and forward to explicating the historical and contemporary
287relationship between industrialization (and now deindustrialization in the West),
288urbanization, and globalization. In sharpening this relationship further, Soja and Kanai
289(2007) contend that globalization leads to a different round of urban-industrialization
290and thus to a new global geography of economic development. Testing this line of
291argument is a growing stream of rigorous empirical studies that use network analysis
292to uncover the complex structure of both hierarchical and horizontal ties among world
293cities (see Carroll, 2007).
294Individually, each of the four theories reviewed here, selective as it is, offers a
295distinctive perspective on urbanization during different times that were conducive to
296the gestation and evolution of each theory. To a large extent, each theory has
297transcended these times in either sustaining or losing its applicability to countries
298(cases) that have experienced urbanization differently. While the so-called theory on
299self-generated or endogenous urbanization uncovered its important general conditions,
300it does little to account for the recent urbanization of developing countries. Besides
301failing on the same score, modernization theory does not stress class relations or
302capitalism per se, but rather the inevitable tensions created by the shifts in social
303organization encouraged by industrialism (Kasarda and Crenshaw, 1991).
304Dependency/world-system theory is stronger in suggesting the association rather than
305proving a causal relationship between urbanization and capitalist development. It may
306also fall short in explaining the large scope and powerful ways of the state in creating
307and sustaining rapid urbanization in the context of China and the rise of Shanghai as a
308new global city (see Chen, 2009). Scholars like John Friedmann and Saskia Sassen
309have alerted students of the city to see and appreciate the real impact of global forces
310on the city. Armed with this global perspective, we should be in a stronger position to
311examine and understand how the global forces play out in the specific context of a
312city. One major weakness of the global city perspective may be that its theorizing and

313analysis are based primarily on a few dominant and heavily studied cities in Western
314industrialized countries (Orum and Chen, 2003).

316Table 2. Principle Stages in Global Urban Development




Economic formation

Industrial capitalism

Monopoly capitalism

Corporate capitalism

Source of wealth



Manufacturing and services

Representative unit of production


Multi-national corporation

Transnational corporation, Global factory

Space relations

Atlantic basin



System of supply


State imperialism

Corporate imperialism

Hegemonic powers


Britain, USA


Level of urbanization at start of 3

period (%)


Areas of urbanization during period


Dominant cities


North-western Europe, the Africa and Asia

Americas, coasts of Empires
New York, London, Tokyo
London, New York

Mode of Accumulation

World-System Characteristics

Urban Consequences

317Source: Clark, 1998

3183. Important Dimensions of Urbanization

319While urbanization is a powerful master process of long historical duration, current
320vibrancy, and even stronger future impact as discussed earlier, it is a not monolithic or
321unidimentional. On the contrary, urbanization carries several important dimensions
322that collectively and individually produce macro and micro impacts on the society and
323everyday life. In this section we introduce and explore a number of these dimensions
324with a heavy demographic emphasis through illustrative research findings and
325empirical examples. This exercise will help pave the way for us to examine the
326socioeconomic consequences of urbanization in the last section.
3283.1 Urban Place and Hierarchy
329Because national definitions of urban areas vary greatly, many countries use an earlier
330United Nations (UNECA, 1968) definition of urban localities (20,000+) and cities
331(100,000+) to standardize comparisons of urban development across nations. The total
332number of urban places of differing sizes in a country is arrayed onto the various
333layers or ladders of a hierarchy shaped like a pyramid. At the top and higher levels of
334the hierarchy are cities of larger demographic sizes, while the size of urban places
335decreases with the descent toward the bottom of the pyramid. The height and shape of
336a national urban hierarchy at any given time, which is dependent on the number of
337urban places at each rung and their sizes, reflect the progress of urbanization through
338that time point. And further urbanization modifies the shape of the urban hierarchy as
339the proportion of rural population increases and the existing urban population moves
340in and out of urban places of different sizes, or up or down the pyramid.
341What then drives or reshape this basic dimension of urbanization? Empirical research
342has repeatedly shown that generally speaking, higher level of economic development
343as measured by the percentage the labor force in industry or gross national product per
344capita translates into a higher level of urbanization (Bairoch, 1988; London, 1987;
345Preston, 1979). Different economic factors and changes have varying effects on
346urbanization. While the contribution of sectoral inequality to urbanization is
347ambiguous, wage differentials between manufacturing and agriculture are prime
348determinants of urbanization (Kelly and Williamson, 1984), while others note that
349rural adversity tends to depress rural-to-urban migration (Becker and Morrison, 1988).
350Some have suggested that the wage structures induced by modern capital-intensive
351manufacturing are not the principal inducement to migration, but rather government
352employment, informal sector employment, education, and rural push forces (Becker
353and Morrison, 1988; Connell, et al, 1976; Henderson, 1986).
354As industrialization and rural-urban migration pulls and pushes more people into
355cities or urban places respectively, the urban hierarchy swells from the bottom to the
356top. On balance, the hierarchy widens from the middle sections to the top faster than
357at the lower levels because more jobs, in either manufacturing or services, and more
358job-seekers gravitate to larger cities or urban places. While this urbanization process
359may alter the overall height (perhaps more layers of different-sized urban places) and
360shape of the hierarchy (e.g., more larger cities than smaller cities), a hierarchy or
361system of urban places remains a most salient and dynamic dimension of urbanization


362in any country over time. This somewhat familiar argument, however, has already
363been updated and enriched by the world or global city literature, which presses us to
364see the national hierarchical composition of urban places as being shaped by more
365distant international conditions. The global view also reveals the stronger tendencies
366toward more economic disparities among the urban places of a hierarchy that are
367induced and sustained by the penetration of outside forces. This conceptual advance
368allows us to question and critique urban places and hierarchy as a classic and taken369for-granted aspect of urbanization.
3713.2 Urban Primacy
372Closely related to the above dimension is urban primacy, which characterizes a
373problematic demographic and functional syndrome of urbanization in certain
374developing countries. Urban primacy refers to the largest city of a country or urban
375system being disproportionately large and thus dominating all the other cities. It is
376assumed to have undesirable effects on national development as the primate city sucks
377away a disproportionately large share of resources to cause uneven growth and wealth
378distribution. Hauser (1957) labeled the primate city as parasitic rather than
379generative as it retards the development of other cities. Since its early formulation,
380the concept of urban primacy has been modified to include the notions and measures
381of two-city primacy, regional multiple-city primacy and multi-centric urban systems
382(Kasarda and Crenshaw, 1991). Going beyond demographic size, Chen (1991)
383extended the measurement and analysis of urban primacy into the economic realm of
384Chinas urban system.
385Of the economic factors that foster urban primacy, transportation networks, the
386location of cities, the location of government services, and the physical characteristics
387of the urban hinterland exert a conjunctural influence on the relative growth of the
388largest city vs. that of other cities, which in turn may lead to urban primacy (see
389Bairoch, 1988; Dogan, 1988; DeCola, 1984; Henderson, 1982, 1986; London, 1986;
390Preston, 1979; Rosen and Resnick, 1980). Other scholars found that urban primacy
391may be produced by export dependency (Frey et al, 1986), foreign capital penetration
392and world-system position (London, 1987), and economic development (or lack of it),
393peripheral status in the world system (Smith and London, 1990). It also appears that
394administrative centralization, the centralization of government social services, and
395general government expenditures are positively related to primate development
396(Crenshaw, 1990; London, 1986; Mutlu, 1989; Petrakos and Brada, 1989). Some
397policies such as minimum wage legislation, import-substitution, and bowing to
398pressure from trade unions may encourage intense urban concentration (Henderson,
3991982; Nemeth and Smith, 1985).
400The myriad of conditions are assumed to induce urban primacy aside, what are the
401countervailing forces that mitigate or forestall it? Since urban primacy is often
402contrasted to a regular urban hierarchy or a more integrated urban system, which
403tends to accompany more advanced economic development, we would expect the
404latter to be the primary strategy for countering or eliminating urban primacy.
405However, there are less developing countries where urban primacy is absent. In China
406and India, which have a large number of very large cities for a long time, urban
407primacy, at least at the national level, has not occurred due to the entrenched positions


408and shifting fortunes of major cities across an expansive urban landscape. Even
409colonial rule, which contributed to urban primacy in Latin America and Africa, did not
410do so in India. While natural endowment and historical conditions set the constraints
411on urban primacy, more recent policies such as promoting small towns and secondary
412cities have had some ameliorating and complementary effects on urban primary. On
413the other hand, partial strategies such as relocating the national capital, creating
414countermagnets, and border regional development have rarely worked because of their
415high cost and minimal impact (Richardson, 1987).
4173.3 Overurbanization vs. Underurbanization
418The study and understanding of urbanization has benefited from the polarized
419reference to that extent that urbanization in developing countries, especially those
420rapidly urbanizing ones may be over (too much) or under (not enough).
421Overurbanization refers to the excessive growth of urban population relative to the
422amount of industrial jobs to accommodate or absorb it. The idea dates back to
423Hoselitz (1954) who advanced the thesis that urbanization in developing nations could
424be too great given the industrial mix of their economies. The cited symptoms of
425overurbanization include substandard living conditions for urban residents, the failure
426of municipal governments to provide the infrastructure and services that make urban
427life more efficient and comfortable, urban unemployment and low wages, and the
428need to import food from abroad in order to sustain the urban population, Less often
429cited but probably salient in the deliberations of governments are the political
430consequences of urbanization: population clustered on a scale that facilitates mass
431demonstrations and mob violence against unpopular national policies or privileged
432groups. Although these concerns sometimes focus on the problems of managing large
433cities, generally they address the question of balance between the numbers of urban
434and rural residents (Lowry, 1990).
435Despite the intrigue of overurbanization and its array of assumed symptoms, scholars
436have lodged varied criticisms against the arbitrary nature of the concept and its
437inherent ethnocentrism (Breese, 1966; Kamerschen, 1969; Hawley, 1981; Smith,
4381987; Sovani, 1964). While overurbanization seems to make more sense in
439developing countries where urban population growth tends to outpace industrial jobs,
440it can be misleading if applied to post-industrial societies like the United States, which
441have a larger share of their urban population than manufacturing jobs due to the
442eroded manufacturing sector and the rapid growth of the service industries (Smith and
443London, 1990). The same authors also found that peripheral status, which captured the
444position of developing countries in the world system, had only a marginal effect on
445overurbanization through the mid-1980s. This raises the question not only about the
446measure of overurbanizationthe ratio of urban population to industrial jobs--but
447also about the changing context in which some characteristics of overurbanization
448may be observed without indicating the full presence of the general condition
449attributed to developing countries.
450The flip side of overurbanization, underurbanization features a much faster expansion
451of industrial employment than the growth of the urban population, which
452characterized the Stalinist period in the former Soviet Union and the policy of urban453rural balance and thus stagnating urbanization in China in the 1960s and 1970s (Chen


454and Parish, 1996). Underurbanization, according to Murray and Szelnyi (1984), is

455typical of the urbanization path in formerly socialist countries, which placed priority
456on industrial production in cities over their residents and the latters demand for
457commercial and social services. Taken to its extreme, underurbanization turns into de458urbanization or zero urban growth, which became the official policy of South Vietnam
459and Cambodia in the wake of their socialist revolutions when the Khmer Rouge
460government killed or expelled about two million residents in and from Phnom Penn.
461Taken together, overurbanization or underurbanization, as well as in their polar
462opposites, offer a more nuanced account for the speed and form of urbanization as it
463plays out with and against other important economic and political factors in different
464national contexts.
4663.4 Natural Increase and Migration
467Finally, it is time to revisit the two and coupled sources of urban growth and
468urbanization, that is, natural increase and migration, while boundary redefinition
469through annexation of surrounding areas constitutes a third and increasingly less
470important contributor to urbanization. As noted by Pernia (1988) and Preston (1979),
471demographic natural increase is positively related to urban population growth. In
472addition, high levels of urbanization dictate somewhat lower rates of growth in
473urbanization due simply to the fact that equilibrium is reached within the population,
474or to a ceiling effect (Brueckner, 1990; Crenshaw, 1990). This is also why Rogers and
475Williamson (1982) suggested earlier that urban growth is partly self-limiting as it
476slows down when urban proportions increase and rural populations first stabilize and
477then decline. The other demographic factor influencing urbanization and urban
478population growth is migration. Rogers (1982) points out that while natural increase
479explains most urban population growth, high levels of rural-to-urban migration tend to
480accelerate urbanization. Firebaugh (1979) and London (1986) note that the density of
481the rural population is related to cityward migration, as is the system of land tenure
482and certain types of agriculture. Constraints on land ownership and rural
483overpopulation tend to push surplus populations toward cities (Bairoch, 1988), and the
484concentration of non-farm activities in developing world cities suggests rural
485underdevelopment as an additional impetus to rural-to-urban migration (Firebaugh,
4861984). Excessive rural out-migration is also thought to be responsive to rural adversity
487and the allure of modern wage structures in urban areas (Gilbert and Gugler, 1982).
488Despite the considerable earlier efforts to differentiate the relative effects of natural
489increase and migration on urban growth and the level of urbanization, the
490compounding and confounding of these two demographic forces has remained an
491analytical challenge since Todaro (1979) pointed to the age selectivity of migrants as
492crucial to their differentially high fertility. While this has been true of some late
493developing and urbanizing countries, there are recent cases where natural increase and
494migration as joined sources of urbanization have become decoupled due to special
495policy and economic circumstances. Take China for an example. First of all, in496migration to cities has surged as fertility in cities has dropped to a very low level
497largely due to the one-child family policy. Second, rural migrants in Chinese cities,
498most of whom are relatively young and of child-producing ages, have not shown a
499strong desire to bear more children (than local residents) due to their limited income,
500marginal living conditions, and lack of access to child care, education, and health care


501created by restrictive government policies .

502While China is an exceptional case for illustrating the separation of natural increase
503and migration, it is a confirmation on the more powerful impact of migration on true
504urbanization. If some kind of underurbanization kept the share of Chinas urban
505population under 20 percent from 1960 to 1980, accelerated urbanization through
506large-scale rural-urban migration has raised that percentage to almost 45 today. In
507fact, if the huge number of temporary or floating rural migrants in Chinese cities and
508towns is counted, China may have already crossed the demographic milestone of half
509urbanized as the whole world has just done. Looking forward, of the slightly more
510than 350 million people that China will add to its urban population by 2025, more
511than 240 million will be migrants. With a much larger size and share of urban
512population down the road, China will confront great challenges in terms of labor
513absorption and political stability, which has sustained the impact of migration on
514urbanization as a central focus of the urban scholarship (Bienin, 1984).
5154. Consequences of Urbanization
516From the very beginning, urbanization has been intimately associated with rapid
517population growth, rural-to-urban migration, industrialization or deindustrialization,
518social transformation, and environmental change. While it is not always possible to
519fully disentangle the mutual causation between urbanization and these other major
520processes, it is forever important and necessary to identify a range of significant
521consequences of urbanization, especially how these consequences may play out in
522rapidly urbanizing countries that remain less developed and thus less equipped to deal
523with them.
5254.1 Urbanization and the Environment
526While we used to be concerned more about the pressure of rapid urbanization on
527employment, housing, and services, a more recent wave of urbanization in terms of
528megacity explosion has elevated global attention to the urbanization-environment
529relationship. To the extent that accelerated urbanization has sped up the depletion of
530natural resources, increased pollution, and contributed to climate change, the
531combination of the latter conditions has turned around to haunt the most obvious
532demographic outcome of urbanizationthe growth of large cities. Natural disasters
533have become more frequent and more severe during the last two decades, threatening
534a large number of large cities (see Figure 2). The United Nations Environment
535Program (UNEP) reports that, between 1980 and 2000, 75 percent of the worlds total
536population lived in areas affected by a natural disaster. And over 90 per cent of losses
537in human life from natural disasters around the world occurred in poor countries,
538especially in their large and densely population urban centers.
539Due to climate change and depleting groundwater, sea levels have been rising at an
540faster rate, which threatens coastal cities. According to recent report released by
541Chinas State Oceanic Administration (SOA), the two key coastal cities--Shanghai and
542Tianjin--are among those facing the biggest threat. In the last 30 years, Shanghai has
543seen the sea level rise 115 mm, or the length of half a chopstick. Tianjin has seen the
544level rise as much as 196 mm, about the length of a new pencil. While global


545warming is the main reason for the rising sea levels, surface subsidence is also to
546blame for the threat of floods in Shanghai and Tianjin due to their indiscriminate
547exploitation of groundwater resources. Shanghai is also facing additional trouble in
548ensuring fresh water supply to its 20 million residents due to seawater. Serious
549deterioration in offshore water quality stems from pollution from onshore sources. In
550the next decade, China's coastal sea level is likely to rise by 32 mm, or 3.2 mm every
551year faster than the annual rise of 2.5 mm from 1975 to 2007. i The Chinese case
552illustrates the strong interdependence between urbanization and the environment.
553Rapid urbanization, when unplanned and underserviced poses multiple environmental
554threats, especially to the exploding megacities in South Asia where five of the worlds
55510 biggest cities will be found within seven years time, namely, Delhi, Dhaka,
556Karachi, Kolkata and Mumbai. In the Pakistani city of Lahore, an open drain is
557causing health problems to nearby residents. Originally planned to channel storm
558water, this drains is now, like the 16 odd other open drains in the city, a floating
559cesspool of raw and untreated sewerage. The drain easily offends and can overwhelm
560even the heartiest of men. Not only that, since the noxious and toxic gases emitted by
561decomposing waste are well known corrosives, the open drain is a constant source of
562attrition on any metal kept outdoors, corroding the air-conditioners that are essential
563in the scorching summer.ii Near Jakarta, a trash slide at a huge garbage dump killed
564three scavengers and injured five others in September 2006. The dump received 600
565trucks around the clock to deliver about 6,000 tons of trash every day from the capital
566city of Jakarta. Reaching up to 15 meters in height, a pile of trash collapsed suddenly
567and buried a number of scavengers who lived and worked right by the dump everyday
568and whose livelihood was dependent on it.iii
569In spite and because of its lower level of urbanization compared to Latin America,
570Asian cities have been growing faster than those in Latin America and Africa and
571therefore becoming dirtier. Sulfur dioxide (a major pollutant that damages crops and
572materials) is 50 percent higher in Asia than in Latin America. While Asian emissions
573of CO2 (a global pollutant suspected to contribute to global warming) are less than half
574of the per capita world average, they are growing at four times the world average.
575Surface waters in Asian cities are full of pathogens, organic material, and heavy
576metals that exceed national and WHO standards. And the overwhelming majority of
577the worlds most polluted cities are in Asia (Panayotou, 2001, p. 422). It remains to be
578seen whether Asian cities are equipped to handle this multitude of environmental
579challenges coming at the same time. Without mega-urbanization in the form of
580megacities, these environmental challenges would not have been brought into sharp
581relief this quickly. It has reshuffled the priority deck for understanding and
582confronting the list of consequences of urbanization on a global scale.



583Figure 2: Large cities in Relation to Current Climate-related Hazards





5864.2 Urbanization, Job Creation, and the Informal Sector

587Of all the short- and long-term consequences of urbanization, the economic one has
588been a constant top analytical focus and policy concern because it is directly tied to
589the creation of enough jobs to accommodate the population in both shrinking cities of
590industrialized countries and the expanding megacities of developing countries, with
591the latter a much larger-scale job creation. While this mismatch of the size of the cities
592and the number of available jobs reminds us of overurbanization discussed earlier in
593this chapter, it manifests itself in more complex and connected ways with regard to
594how the job-seekers fare within and between the formal and informal sectors.
595Considering that the labor force in developing countries, mostly in their urban centers
596is expected to increase from 1.8 billion currently to 3.1 billion by year 2025, job
597creation has become an overriding concern (Rondinelli and Kasarda, 1990). This is
598daunting prospect of urban job creation that will push and stretch economic growth to
599be sustained at a high level. As of now, even the fastest growing economies like China
600are struggling to keep up with millions of new entrants into the urban labor market.
601Against the broad backdrop and alarming project of half of the 1.3 billion Chinese
602living in cities by 2010, about 13 million rural people flood into China's cities every
603year.iv Taking into millions of urban youth that need a first job every year, China needs
604to create approximately 20 million jobs in its cities annually to absorb both local labor
605market entrants and incoming rural migrants. Much of this massive pool of labor will
606end up in informal sector jobs that provide an alternative path to job creation and
607social mobility (Todaro, 1989). Early attempts by the International Labor
608Organization (ILO) to define informality attributed such characteristics as ease of
609entry, small scale, internal finance and resources, family-ownership, labor-intensive
610production, the use of local technologies, and unregulated competitive markets to
611informal sector activities (ILO, 1972). Recent research leads away from notions about
612benign or exploitative relationships between sectors of an urban economy and
613encourages the adoption of a model of urban labor markets characterized by complex
614interdependencies and dynamism (Kasarda and Crenshaw, 1991). The picture of the
615urban informal sector pained in the recent literature is more positive than was
616previously the case. In terms of labor absorption, subsidy-free human capital
617formation, low-cost provision of goods and services to the urban poor, and the
618retention of scarce capital, the urban informal sector is far more productive than
619formal sector employment (de Soto 1989; Richardson, 1984).
620In Mexico City, the informal sector has become so vast that it spreads from the city
621center to its periphery, occupying street corners, covering sidewalks, and infiltrating
622the marginal zones in residential and commercial neighborhoods. Accounting for 60
623percent of all jobs, the informal sector helps keep unemployment rate low and less
624understood. The informal sector also provide a large valve and wide channel for
625moving a huge amount of transaction and recycling of goods outside of the circuits of
626the formal market economy. In addition, it helps sustain highly complex and
627established social and cultural networks (Castillo, 2007). As pressure for job creation
628grows further with accelerated urbanization and the continued surge of megacities, the
629informal sector will expand wider and deeper to take in more people falling out of the
630shrinking formal, state-owned sector, as has been happening in Chinas big cities, and
631more new rural migrants pushed out by the shrinking agricultural economy. However,
632as the informal sector becomes more bloated, it will also subject more urban poor in


633precarious jobs to more marginalized working and living conditions.

6344.3 Urbanization, Housing, and Spatial Form
635Marginal living conditions for the poor are an inevitable outcome of rapid
636urbanization that leads to the agglomeration and densification of those with limited
637means. What sharpens this unfortunate and unpleasant process is the much larger
638scale of the concentration of the poor in the rapidly urbanizing countries with
639exploding megacities. Along with Africa, the Asia-Pacific region has been
640experiencing the fastest rate of urbanization over the last 15 years, which has
641contributed to two of five urban dwellers living in slums, compared with three out of
642five in Africa. In India alone, urban poor account for at least a third of the urban
643population if not more. Given a total urban population of over 300 million, this
644translates into a staggering 100 million or more destitute people in Indias towns and
645cities, living in slums, shanties and sleeping on the streets. v In large Pakistani cities
646like Karachi, half of the urban population lives in slums.
647Slums have emerged through a process of organized and unorganized invasions of
648urban real estate and illegal subdivision and sale of land in many developing world
649cities, which are dotted with non-standard, poor-quality housing units interspersed
650with sanctioned land uses. Not all of these informal settlements can be characterized
651as slums that are defeated, socially disorganized neighborhoods, as some of them are
652rather vital, if oftentimes poor, communities (Kasarda and Crenshaw, 1991). Early
653research showed that major deficiencies exist in housing quantity and quality, the
654security of the occupants tenure, the infrastructure including collection of household
655wastes, primary health care, education, and emergency services (Adegbola, 1987;
656Oya-Sawyer et al, 1987). While highly variable (Lowder, 1987), the internal spatial
657structure of developing country cities shows some tendencies toward a convergence
658with North American and European patterns as industrialization and urbanization
659accelerate. However, this convergence is imperfect due to social stratification systems
660based on ascribed status such as ethnicity and religion, government regulations such
661as elite housing subsidies and rent control and the existence of preindustrial physical
663Besides helping create the familiar landscape of slum housing in and around the
664megacities of developing countries, mega-urbanization of the 21st century has bred
665another familiar phenomenonthe onset of large-scale suburbanizationthat has
666begun to shape both housing stratification and spatial differentiation on a metropolitan
667or regional level. As we have argued (Chen, Kundu, and Wang, forthcoming), the new
668suburban residential space around the megacities of Shanghai and Kolkata is produced
669by the conjuncture of powerful state planning, wealthy overseas investors, aggressive
670local real estate players, and a rising middle class. In Shanghai alone, urban planners
671believe some five million people will move to what are called "satellite cities" in the
672next 10 years. To varying degrees, the same thing is happening all across China. This
673processChina's own suburban flightis at the core of the next phase of this
674country's urbanization and development. A wave of those who are newly affluent and
675firm in the belief that their best days, economically speaking, are ahead of them, is
676headed for the suburbs where they can and do buy houses that are, on average, twice
677the size of the downtown apartment at half the price. This is what former Time
678reporter Bill Powell termed Chinas Short March. vi But the new suburban housing
679around Shanghai may still be out of reach or interest to many due to 1) the still large


680price-income ratio, 2) the incomplete access to long-range public transportation and

681limited ownership of private cars; and 3) the lack of corresponding commercial and
682social services like convenient shopping and good schools. This however provides
683new evidence that the recent impact of mega-urbanization on housing and urban form
684is working its way through the familiar mechanism of suburbanization, even though
685the latter is unfolding with some distinctive national and local features.
6874.4 Urbanization, Education, and Health
688Finally, we turn to revisit the long established research on the impact of urbanization
689on education and health and bring some new evidence to bear on what may be
690changing in the era of mega-urbanization and megacities. A pioneer in studying
691urbanization and education, Havighurst (1967) pointed out that the urbanization
692process in the United States had increased the average size of schools and decreased
693the number of school districts with small enrolments from 1930 to 1960. Until 1965,
694two thirds of school children and teachers were located in metropolitan area schools,
695which became more homogeneous in social status. On the other hand, the quality of
696the public schools became the greatest single factor in the decision of middle-income
697people to live in the central city or to live in the suburbs, and to live in one section or
698another of the central city or the suburbs. More recently, some scholars began to
699examine the effects of urbanization on efficiency of public expenditure in education
700(see Jayasuriya and Wodon, 2003; Kirjavainen and Loikkanen, 1998; Ruggiero,
7011998). Jayasuriya and Wodon (2003) found that urbanization is a strong determinant
702of the efficiency of countries in improving education outcomes. The importance of
703urbanization may stem from the fact that it is typically cheaper to provide access to
704education and health services in urban than in rural areas. The cost advantage in urban
705areas should be especially important for public services with substantial fixed costs
706(Hardoy et al., 2001). Beyond the cost advantage, there could, however, also be other
707reasons why efficiency would be better in urban areas. First, it may be easier to
708monitor performance and attract quality inputs in urban areas. Second, urban living
709provides more an environmental reinforcement of good educational performance and
710student completion. Finally, competition to provide services in urban areas may be
711higher and thereby improves efficiency.
712Earlier research documented a range of health consequences of urbanization. Before
713the onset of the epidemiological and demographic transitions, death rates tended to be
714positively associated with levels of population density. Squalid and crowded urban
715living conditions, and relatively high rates of social interaction, meant that pre716transitional towns were highly conducive to the maintenance and spread of infectious
717diseases. Furthermore, towns often served as nodal points through which new diseases
718were introduced. Urban death rates exceeded urban birth rates (Dyson, 2003). As one
719of the most serious infectious diseases, HIV gains a lot of attentions in the discussions
720of urbanization. In developing countries, it is agreed that levels of HIV infection are
721generally significantly higher in urban areas. For example, apropos sub-Saharan
722Africa, Caldwell et al (1997) found that urban levels of HIV infection are typically
723four to ten times those of rural areas, while Carael (1997) reported that rural HIV
724and STD prevalence have generally been found to be much lower than urban
725prevalence. Douglas et al (2001) suggested that urban centers and market towns
726tend to have a substantially higher occurrence of HIV than rural areas. In return, HIV


727also has impacts on the process of urbanization. In the most severely affected
728countries, HIV is found to exert a significant limiting effect on the process of
729urbanization by differentially affecting mortality, migration and fertility between the
730urban and rural sectors (Dyson, 2003).
731In the age of mega-urbanization and much larger and more densely populated cities of
732developing countries, the impact on education and heath originates from and is
733transmitted by a set of more connected conditions such as environmental degradation,
734economic inequality, and dilapidated housing, as well as some previously unidentified
735circumstances. Environmental problems pose health hazards to both wealthy and low736income settlement in the urban areas in most countries. They include air pollution
737from motor vehicles and industrial emissions, water pollution, insufficient water
738supplies, inadequate solid waste management leading to the proliferation of disease
739vectors, contaminated food and noise (Goldstein, 1990). The amassing of poor rural
740migrants in Indian and Chinese megacities has magnified the glaring problem of
741providing basic and affordable education to the children of these migrants. This is
742worse in a way in the Indian cities that are hampered by poor infrastructure.
743According to the World Competitiveness Book 2006, India has the highest ratio of
744pupils to teaching staff and the second largest ratio of inhabitants to physicians and
745nurses, out of 61 countries analyzed. Missing infrastructure not only restricts access to
746educational and health facilities, which in turn lowers the levels of illiteracy and
747mortality, but also represents a challenge for the implementation of different
748development strategies, mainly in the area of social security.vii In the large Chinese
749cities, the children of migrant workers have highly limited access to public education
750due to unfavorable government policy. The majority of the approximately 400,000
751migrant children in Beijing attend the 300 or so private schools located on the
752metropolitan fringes, which are organized by migrants themselves and NGOs. Yet
753some of these schools have been closed down by the municipal government on the
754basis that they are not up to the official educational standards (Chen, 2007).
755The massive number of the urban poor including the majority of migrant workers does
756not have to lead to an inferior education and health status for them. As important
757contributors to wealth creation in the booming megacities, they deserve decent
758education and heath care. In India recently, the Ministry of Human Resource
759Development has set up residential schools in some of the educationally backward
760urban districts to provide comprehensive education to adolescent girls belonging to
761the lowest castes and classes. Healthcare, writing, computers, and disaster
762management are important elements of the curriculum. This kind of education has
763brought about a more positive attitude in both the students and their parents toward
764self-confidence, marriage outlook, and health consciousness. viii If this kind of
765government investment can make the biggest difference to the neediest urban poor, it
766represents a broader lesson for rethinking about the relationship between urbanization
767and education and health.
7695. Conclusions
770In this chapter we have offered a series of treatments of urbanization with the ultimate
771purpose of creating a broad and somewhat integrated account for this complex and
772multidimensional phenomenon. We intend this chapter to serve both the general


773reader and the special expert but in different ways. The more general reader will
774obtain a holistic picture weaved together from definition, theory, and a progressive
775unpacking of the dimensions and consequences of urbanization. While the expert on
776the topic may not find anything original in this chapter, the new evidence assembled
777here may prompt the expert to look at the definition and theories a little differently. If
778there is one main thread here that carries the new evidence to the next fruitful stage of
779analysis, it is our effort to move beyond the more conventional focus on urbanization
780as a rural-to-urban shift and to highlight a new stage of urbanization characterized by
781its accelerated pace and the resulting megacities. Although this may not be a
782qualitatively new transition, even a cursory look at megacities awakens us to the
783greater complexity of urbanization and its new and more challenging consequences
784such as environmental damage. Urbanization definitely not just simply create
785problems, people believe urbanization itself also contain the solutions. The challenge
786is in learning how to exploit its possibilities.
789Urbanization is the physical growth of urban areas from rural areas as a result of
790population immigration to an existing urban area
791Megacities - is usually defined as a metropolitan area with a total population in
792excess of 10 million people.
793Urban hierarchy - a term that relates the structure of towns within an area
794Urban primacy - indicates a city whose population is at least twice as large as that of
795the next largest city in a country
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905Urban Primacy: a Cross-National Panel Analysis. Urban Affairs Quarterly 21: 359906368. [Tests the relationship between primacy and economic development for countries
907in Asia and the Americas]
908Friedmann, J. (1986). The World City Hypothesis. Development and Change, 17(1):
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910Friedmann, J., and G. Wolff. (1982). World City Formation: An Agenda for
911Research. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 6(3): 309-344.
912[The development of a global system of major cities is examined, and the implications
913of this trend for the world economic system are considered, particularly in terms of
914the effect on international movements of capital]
915Gilbert, A. and J. Gugler. (1982). Cities, Poverty, and Development: Urbanization in
916the Third World. Oxford University Press, New York. [An important contribution to
917the understanding of the nature of urban poverty in the Third World]
918Golden, H. H., 1981, Urbanization and Cities: Historical and Comparative
919Perspectives on Our Urbanizing World, D. C. Heath, Lexington. [Comprehensive
920introduction of urbanization]
921Goldfrank, W.L., 1979, The World-System of Capitalism Past and Present, Beverley
922Hills, Sage, Cambridge. [Well organized dependency/world-system theory]
923Goldstein, G., 1990, Urbanization, Health, and Well-being: a Global Perspective, The
924Statistician 39: 121-133. [Review of urbanizations physical and social impacts on
925health and disease]
926Grauman, J. V., 1976, Orders of magnitude of the Worlds Urban Population in
927History, Population Bulletin of the United Nations 8: 16-33. [One of the first to
928attempt precise estimates of urban populations at different periods of history]
929Hardoy, J. E., D. Mitlin and D. Satterthwaite, 2001, Environmental Problems in an
930Urbanizing World, Earthscan Publications Ltd., London. [About how to achieve a
931sustainable urbanization]



932Harvey, D.W., 1973, Social Justice and the City, Edward Arnold, London. [A
933foundational text in urban geography]
934Hauser, P.M., 1957, World and Asian Urbanization in Relation to Economic
935Development and Social Change, In: P.M. Hauser (ed.), Urbanization in Asia and
936the Far East, UNESCO, Calcutta, India. [The urbanization process in the Third
938Havighurst, R. J., 1967, Urbanization and Education in United States, International
939Review of Education 13: 393- 409. [Pioneering paper about the effects of urbanization
940upon the school system in US]
941Hawley, A., 1981, Urban Society: an Ecological Approach, Ronald, New York.
942[Analyzes urban evolution under ecological framework]
943Hawley, A., 1984, Human Ecological and Marxian Theories, American Journal of
944Sociology 89: 904-917. [Comparing human ecological and Marxist approaches
945discloses numerous parallels and significant differences]
946Henderson, J. V., 1982, The Impact of Government Policies on Urban Concentration,
947Journal of Urban Economics 12: 280-303. [The role of government in the process of
949Henderson, J. V., 1986, Efficiency of Resource Usage and City Size, Journal of
950Urban Economics 19: 47-70. [Sketches the relationship between resource and the
951sustainable city expansion]
952Hette, B., 1990, Development theory and the Three Worlds. Longman, London. [An
953important text in political geography]
954Hoselitz, B. 1954, Generative and Parasitic Cities, Economic Development and
955Culture Change 32: 277-302. [An early exposition of over urbanization]
956International Labor Organization (ILO), 1972, Employment, Income and Equality: a
957Strategy for Increasing Productive Employment in Kenya, ILO, Geneva. [Policies for
958expanding employment in the informal urban sector of Kenya]
959Jayasuriya, R. and Q. Wodon, 2003, Explaining Country Efficiency in Improving
960Health and Education Indicators: The Role of Urbanization, World Development
961Report 2003, Dynamic Development in a Sustainable World, Background Paper.
962[About to measures the efficiency of countries in improving net primary enrollment
963and life expectancy]
964Kalnay, E. and M. Cai, 2003, Impact of Urbanization and Land-Use Change on
965Climate, Nature 423: 528:531. [Propose an interesting finding that half of the
966observed decrease in diurnal temperature range is due to urban and other land-use
968Kamerschen, D., 1969, Further Analysis of Overurbanization, Economic Development
969and Culture Change 17: 235-253. [An early exposition of over urbanization]
970Kasarda, J.D. and E. M. Crenshaw, 1991, Third World Urbanization: Dimensions,


971Theories, and Determinants, Annual Reviews Sociology 17:467-501. [Interdisciplinary

972review about the trends and dimensions of urbanization in developing countries as
973well as major theories guiding global urban studies]
974Kelly, A. and J. Williamson, 1984, What Drives Third World City Growth: a Dynamic
975General Equilibrium Approach, Princeton University Press, Princeton. [Evaluates the
976importance of the various factors contributing to urban growth in less developed
978Kirjavainen, T., and H.A., Loikkanen, 1998, Efficiency Differences of Finnish Senior
979Secondary Schools: An Application of DEA and Tobit Analysis, Economics of
980Education Review 17: 377-94. [Private schools could be inefficient relative to public
982Lampard, E.E., 1965, Historical Aspects of Urbanization, In: Hauser, P.M. and
983Schnore, L.F. (eds.), The Study of Urbanization, John Wiley and Sons, Chichester.
984[Review paper about urbanization history]
985Linn, J.F., 1982, The Costs of Urbanization in Developing Countries, Economic
986Development and Cultural Change 30: 625-648. [Comprehensive discussion of
987several major analytical issues involved in the concern with the costs of urbanization
988in developing countries]
989London, B., 1986, Ecological and Political Economic Analyses of Migration to a
990Primate city: Bangkok, Thailand ca. 1970, Urban Affairs Quarterly 21: 501-526.
991[Structural determinants of third world urban change]
992London, B., 1987, Structural Determinants of Third World Urban Change: an
993Ecological and Political Economic Analysis, American Sociological Review 52: 2899443. [A theoretical framework of quantitative analysis of Third World urbanization]
995Lowder, S., 1987, The Geography of Third World Cities, Barnes & Noble, New
996Jersey. [A comparative analysis of third world cities with the focus on the circulation
997and consumption of goods and services within them is presented]
998Lowry, I. S., 1990, World Urbanization in Perspective, Population and Development
999Review 16: 148-176. [A brief history of world urbanization since 1850 and the
1000connections between urbanization, energy consumption and environmental
1002Murray, P. and I. Szelnyi, 1984, The City in the Transition to Socialism,
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1004exposition about the socialism movement on urbanization]
1005Mutlu, S., 1989, Urban Concentration and Primacy Revisited: an Analysis and Some
1006Policy Conclusions, Economic Development and Culture Change 37: 611-639. [An
1007empirical cross-country test of hypotheses on the determinants of primacy and urban
1009Nemeth, R. J. and D. A. Smith, 1985, International Trade and World-System
1010Structure: a Multiple-Network Analysis, Review 8: 517-560. [Hierarchy structures in
1011world trade]


1012Newman, P. W. G. and J. R. Kenworthy, 1989, Gasoline Consumption and Cities: a

1013Comparison of U.S. Cities with a Global Survey, Journal of the American Planning
1014Association 55: 24-37. [Factors of land use and transportation planning rather than
1015price or income variations are more critical in reducing gasoline consumption and
1016automobile dependence]
1017Orum, A. and X. Chen, 2003, The World of Cities: Places in Comparative and
1018Historical Perspective, Blackwell, London. [Surveys and critiques all the major
1019theoretical perspectives in urban studies]
1020Oya-Sawyer, D., R. Fernandez-Castilla, and R. Luis de Melo Monte-Mor, 1987, The
1021Impact of Urbanization and Industrialization on Mortality in Brazil, World Health
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1023environmental changes in terms of communication, transportation, and sanitation
1024infrastructure that favor a decline in mortality rates]
1025Panayotou, T. 2001, Environmental Sustainability and Services in Developing Global
1026City-Regions, In: A.J. Scott (ed.), Global City-Regions: Trends, Theory, Policy,
1027Oxford University Press, London. [Presents a highly original and multifaceted review
1028of the new challenges faced by city-regions around the world]
1029Pernia, E. M., 1988, Urbanization and Spatial Development in the Asian and Pacific
1030Region: Trends and Issues, Asian Development Review 6: 86-105. [Highlights
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1032Petrakos, G. and J. C. Brada, 1989, Metropolitan Concentration in Developing
1033Countries, Kyklos 42: 557-578. [Examines the economic, political, and cultural
1034determinants of urban concentrations using a sample of fifty-three countries]
1035Pred, A.R., 1977, City Systems in Advanced Economies, Hutchinson, London.
1036[Presents processes and future city development options]
1037Preston, S., 1979, Urban Growth in Developing Countries: a Demographic
1038Reappraisal, Population and Development Review 11: 344-348. [A review of
1039demographic processes responsible for and associated with urban growth]
1040Richardson, H.W., 1987, Whither National Urban Policy in Developing Countries?
1041Urban Studies 23: 227-244. [Why national urban policies in developing countries tend
1042to fail]
1043Rogers, A., 1982, Sources of Urban Population Growth and Urbanization, 1950-2000:
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1046urbanization levels]
1047Rogers, A. and J.G. Williamson, 1982, Migration, Urbanization, and Third World
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1051Development: Job Creation Needs in Developing Countries, paper presented National
1052Research Council, Comm. on Population, Workshop on Urban Migration and


1053Development, Washington DC. [Policies for improving the capacity of developing

1054countries to generate jobs]
1055Rosen, K. T. and M. Resnik, 1980, The Size Distribution of Cities: an Examination of
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1058Richardson, H.W., 1984, The Role of the Informal Sector in Developing Countries: an
1059Overview, Regional Development Dialogue 5: 3-40. [Comprehensive investigation of
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1063Analysis (DEA) technique for efficiency measurement has been extended to allow
1064non-discretionary inputs that affect production]
1065Smith, D.A., 1987, Overurbanization Reconceptualized: a Political Economy of the
1066World-System Approach, Urban Affairs Quarterly 23: 270-293. [Discussed the role of
1067the so-called 'urban surplus labor' in the 'informal sector']
1068Smith, D.A., 1996, Third World Cities in Global Perspective: The Political Economy
1069of Uneven Urbanization, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado. [Review the
1070conventional ecological view of the city]
1071Smith, D.A. and B.E. London, 1990, Convergence in World Urbanization? A
1072Quantitative Assessment, Urban Affairs Quarterly 25: 574-590. [Provide strong
1073evidence for a world-system explanation of continuing differences in overall level of
1074urbanization and urban primacy]
1075Sassen, S., The Global City: New York, London, Tokyo, Princeton University Press,
1076New Jersey. [About how New York, London, and Tokyo became command centers for
1077the global economy and in the process underwent a series of massive and parallel
1079So, A.Y., 1990, Social Change and Development: Modernization, Dependency and
1080World-System Theories, Sage, Newbury Park, California. [Evaluates the dynamic
1081nature of three schools of development]
1082Soja, E. and M. Kanai, 2007, The Urbanization of the World, In: R. Burdett and D.
1083Sudjic (eds.), The Endless City, Phaidon, London. [An unparalleled study of the
1084growth of six of the World's international cities]
1085Sovani, N.V., 1964, The Analysis of Overurbanization, Economic Development and
1086Culture Chang 12: 113-122. [The very first definition of overurbanization]
1087Timberlake, M., 1987, World-System Theory and the Study of Comparative
1088Urbanization, In: Smith, M.P. and Feagin, J.R. (eds.) The Capitalist City, Blackwell,
1089Oxford. [Takes a global approach, looking at western and non-western cities]
1090Todaro, M.P., 1979, Urbanization in Developing Nations: Trends, Prospects, and
1091Policies, Working Paper no. 50, The Population Council, New York. [Discuss a
1092package of policies, both short and long term in nature, are required to redress the


1093severe imbalance in economic opportunities between urban and rural areas in

1094developing countries]
1095Todaro, M.P., 1981, City Bias and Rural Neglect: The Dilemma of Urban
1096Development, The Population Council, New York. [Analysis of the complex problem
1097of the rapid population growth in the major cities of developing countries]
1098Todaro, M.P., 1989, Economic Development in the Third World, Longman, New York.
1099[Classic research about the economic development in the less developed countries]
1100United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), 1980, Demographic
1101Handbook for Africa, United Nations, Addis Ababa. [Demographic data for the 50
1102member states of the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA)]
1103Weber, A.F., 1899, The Growth of Cities in the Nineteenth Century, Cornell University
1104Press, New York. [Statistical investigation of the growth of cities internationally
1105during the nineteenth century]
1106Wallerstein, I., 1979, The Capitalist World-Economy, Cambridge University Press,
1107New York.[ A collection of essays on the working of capitalism as a world system,
1108focuses on the conflicts between core and periphery and bourgeois and proletarian]
1109Wheatley, P., 1971, The Pivot of the Four Quarters, The University of Chicago Press,
1110Chicago. [A preliminary enquiry into the origins and character of the ancient Chinese
1113Biographical Sketch
1114Xizhe Peng is the professor of Population and Development at Fudan University, and
1115serves as the Dean of the School of Social Development and Public Policy, and the
1116director of the State Innovative Institute for Public Management and Public Policy
1117Studies at Fudan University. He graduated from the Department of Economics, Fudan
1118University, China in 1982, and received his Msc. and Ph.D. degrees in Population
1119Studies from London School of Economics and Political Sciences in 1984 and 1988
1120respectively. Dr. Peng is one of the leading population and development specialists in
1121China. His research covers a wide range of population-related issues, including
1122population dynamics and policy, social protection and social policy, sustainable
1123development and gender studies etc. He is author and editor of 16 books, and more
1124than 100 academic articles and book chapters, including, Demographic Transition in
1125China- Fertility Trends since the 1950s (Oxford University Press, 1991) and The
1126Changing Population of China (Blackwell, 2000).
1128 Dr. Peng Xizhe has been a member of the Advisory Committee of Chinas National
1129Population and Family Planning Commission Since 1992. He has served as a member
1130of the IHDP (International Human Dimension Program on Global Environment
1131Change) Scientific Committee since 2000.



30i Reported by China Daily online, January 16, 2008.

31ii Blogs by Ahmad Rafay Alam and Shreekant Gupta on, February 16, April 7, 2008.
32iii Reported by The Jakarta Post online, September 13, 2006.
33iv Reported by China Daily online, November 8, 2006.
34v Blog by Achara Ashayagachat on, February 15, 2008.
35vi The Short March by Bill Powell, Time, February 14, 2008.
36vii Blog by Luis F. Ballesteros on, September 29, 2008.
37viii Reported by OneWorld South Asia online, July 23, 2008.