Canadian Economic Outlook

BMO Capital Markets Economics
March 5, 2010
Q1
PRODUCTION
Real GDP (chain-weighted)
Final Sales
Final Domestic Demand
Consumer Spending
durables
nondurables
services
Government Spending
Business Investment
non-residential construction
machinery and equipment
Residential Construction
Exports
Imports
Inventory Change
Contribution to GDP Growth
Net Exports
Contribution to GDP Growth

Q2

Q3

2009
Q4

(quarter/quarter % change : a.r.)
-7.0
-3.5
0.9
5.0
-2.2
-4.0
-0.6
6.5
-7.4
0.3
5.6
4.6
-1.3
1.6
3.7
3.6
-11.7
3.6
12.8
10.7
2.6
0.0
1.6
-0.4
0.3
2.4
3.1
4.1
2.9
5.5
9.0
7.4
-38.6
-19.0
6.4
-8.8
-36.7
-22.0
-8.4
-8.5
-40.4
-15.9
22.8
-9.2
-21.9
7.0
9.5
29.7
-30.2
-19.1
12.2
15.4
-39.2
-5.7
36.0
8.9

Q1

Q2

Q3

2010
Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2011
Q4

2008

2009

2010

2011

-2.6
-1.5
-1.7
0.2
-2.8
0.6
1.1
4.5
-17.4
-15.6
-19.2
-7.4
-14.0
-13.4

3.0
2.4
3.5
3.2
5.8
1.8
3.4
5.3
-2.3
-4.8
0.0
9.5
5.2
8.8

3.2
2.9
3.0
3.5
4.2
3.2
3.5
1.6
4.0
3.4
4.6
2.4
5.8
5.9

3.7
2.4
3.3
3.2
4.0
2.2
3.6
4.2
-2.5
-4.0
-1.0
9.0
2.5
5.5

3.4
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.2
4.4
1.0
1.0
1.0
2.0
4.1
5.0

3.2
2.3
2.9
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.3
3.3
1.8
1.5
2.0
1.0
4.6
6.4

2.9
2.5
2.8
2.9
2.5
3.0
2.9
3.2
2.5
2.0
3.0
1.0
5.6
6.4

2.9
3.0
3.1
3.5
4.0
3.0
3.5
2.0
4.5
4.0
5.0
2.0
5.7
5.8

3.5
3.1
2.9
4.2
6.0
3.5
4.0
-0.8
4.5
4.0
5.0
4.0
6.7
5.8

3.8
3.4
3.2
4.1
6.0
3.5
3.8
-0.4
6.5
5.0
8.0
4.0
6.7
5.8

3.6
3.2
3.3
3.9
5.0
3.0
4.0
0.4
7.0
6.0
8.0
3.0
5.7
5.8

0.4
0.7
2.6
3.0
5.6
1.5
2.9
4.8
0.2
-0.1
0.5
-2.7
-4.7
0.8

(billions of chained 2002 dollars : a.r.)
-7.5
-6.3
-1.5
-4.3
-0.9
-4.7
0.6
1.5
-1.4
1.3
-58.3
-73.2
-99.5
-95.5
-99.9
4.9
-4.3
-5.9
1.8
-0.9

0.7
0.5
-102.0
-0.3

3.6
0.9
-105.5
-0.6

5.2
0.5
-108.1
-0.3

5.0
-0.1
-109.7
-0.1

6.1
0.3
-110.3
0.2

7.6
0.4
-110.9
0.2

9.0
0.4
-112.6
-0.1

12.2
-0.2
-90.7
-2.0

-4.9
2.2
6.9
-1.1
0.5
0.3
-81.6 -103.9 -110.9
0.1
-1.1
-0.1

Nominal GDP
(% chng : a.r.)

(billions of dollars : a.r.)
1,519 1,508 1,524
-12.6
-2.8
4.3

INFLATION
GDP Price Index
CPI All Items
Excl. Food & Energy
Food Prices
Energy Prices
Services

(quarter/quarter % change : a.r.)
-5.9
0.7
3.4
4.4
-1.0
0.1
0.6
3.7
0.8
1.2
0.6
1.1
4.8
2.2
0.1
0.5
-24.7
-12.9
1.5
37.3
0.2
3.6
1.8
0.7

CPI All Items
BoC Core

(year/year % change)
1.2
0.1
-0.9
1.9
1.9
1.6

FINANCIAL
Overnight Rate
3-Month T-Bill
90-Day BAs
10 Year Bond Yield

(average for the quarter : %)
0.83
0.25
0.25
0.64
0.25
0.22
0.82
0.35
0.31
2.89
3.20
3.42

1,585
6.6

1,605
5.1

1,628
5.8

1,648
5.2

1,668
4.8

1,688
5.0

1,710
5.3

1,731
5.1

1,600
4.4

1,528
-4.5

1,616
5.8

1,699
5.1

2.7
2.8
1.7
1.5
15.3
0.5

1.7
1.0
0.9
1.5
1.6
2.3

2.6
2.6
2.7
2.2
2.8
3.4

2.2
1.6
1.3
2.2
2.4
1.3

1.8
1.8
1.7
1.6
3.1
2.2

1.4
1.8
1.8
1.5
3.2
2.1

1.4
1.9
1.8
1.9
3.2
2.0

1.4
1.7
1.5
1.5
3.7
4.2

3.9
2.4
1.2
3.5
9.8
3.4

-1.9
0.3
1.1
4.9
-13.5
2.1

2.8
2.1
1.4
1.3
10.2
1.6

1.8
1.8
1.7
1.8
2.9
2.3

0.8
1.6

1.8
1.8

2.1
1.6

2.6
1.6

2.0
1.5

1.8
1.6

2.0
1.6

1.8
1.7

1.8
1.8

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.7

0.25
0.21
0.32
3.41

0.25
0.17
0.32
3.43

0.25
0.25
0.38
3.44

0.58
0.77
0.90
3.52

1.08
1.24
1.37
3.65

1.58
1.72
1.85
3.83

2.08
2.21
2.34
4.03

2.58
2.69
2.82
4.23

3.08
3.17
3.30
4.43

2.96
2.33
3.18
3.61

0.40
0.33
0.45
3.23

0.54
0.61
0.74
3.51

2.33
2.45
2.58
4.13

6
-10

15
-5

7
-24

12
-23

51
-25

49
-28

39
-33

37
-38

43
-43

41
-48

94
-6

18
-3

30
-25

40
-41

FOREIGN TRADE
Current Account Balance
Merchandise Balance
Non-Merchandise Balance

(billions of dollars : a.r.)
-27.1
-43.8
-55.2
3.5
-6.7
-16.5
-30.7
-37.1
-38.7

-39.1
2.3
-41.4

-42.7
0.4
-43.1

-41.7
0.2
-41.9

-38.3
-0.2
-38.0

-37.4
0.0
-37.4

-39.4
0.7
-40.2

-42.3
1.4
-43.7

-42.8
1.9
-44.7

-43.6
2.0
-45.6

8.1
46.9
-38.8

-41.3
-4.3
-37.0

-40.0
0.1
-40.1

-42.0
1.5
-43.5

Exchange Rate (US¢/C$)
Exchange Rate (C$/US$)
Exchange Rate (¥/C$)
Exchange Rate (C$/Euro)

(average for the quarter)
80.3
85.6
91.1
1.245 1.168 1.097
75.2
83.5
85.3
1.62
1.59
1.57

94.7
1.056
85.1
1.56

95.3
1.050
86.2
1.45

97.2
1.028
89.7
1.43

100.0
1.000
95.6
1.41

100.3
0.997
99.2
1.43

100.4
0.996
102.1
1.44

101.1
0.990
105.3
1.41

101.7
0.983
108.5
1.39

102.3
0.977
111.7
1.37

94.3
1.067
97.8
1.56

88.0
1.141
82.3
1.58

98.2
1.019
92.7
1.43

101.4
0.986
106.9
1.40

INCOMES
Corporate Profits Before Tax
Corporate Profits After Tax

(billions of dollars : a.r.)
147.3 130.8 142.9
97.9
88.7 102.0

155.8
103.1

160.7
113.4

163.3
115.4

165.0
116.8

168.9
120.2

176.4
127.7

180.0
131.3

181.0
132.3

186.4
137.7

215.8
155.3

144.2
97.9

164.5
116.4

181.0
132.3

Corporate Profits Before Tax
Personal Income
Real Disposable Income

(year/year % change)
-30.9
-43.0
-39.9
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.8
1.5
1.8

-14.8
0.7
1.3

9.1
2.7
2.6

24.8
3.8
2.5

15.4
4.8
2.9

8.4
4.8
3.1

9.8
4.6
2.6

10.2
4.5
2.3

9.7
4.2
2.3

10.4
4.2
2.3

5.7
4.8
4.2

-33.2
0.5
1.4

14.0
4.0
2.8

10.0
4.4
2.4

Savings Rate

(average for the quarter : %)
5.1
5.5
4.9

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.2

3.7

3.3

3.1

3.7

5.0

4.6

3.6

OTHER INDICATORS
Unemployment Rate (%)
Housing Starts (thousands)
Motor Vehicle Sales (millions)

(quarter average or period end : a.r.)
7.8
8.4
8.5
8.4
132
128
156
180
1.42
1.45
1.53
1.55

8.3
178
1.59

8.3
181
1.61

8.2
170
1.62

8.1
176
1.64

8.1
174
1.65

8.0
179
1.67

7.9
182
1.69

7.8
185
1.71

6.1
212
1.67

8.3
149
1.49

8.2
176
1.62

7.9
180
1.68

Employment Growth
Industrial Production

(quarter/quarter % change : a.r.)
-5.9
-1.1
-0.1
1.3
-18.1
-14.5
-4.9
8.8

1.6
6.1

1.2
2.4

1.6
3.2

2.3
3.4

1.3
5.0

1.2
5.5

1.2
3.4

1.5
2.2

1.5
-4.2

-1.6
-10.0

1.1
2.5

1.5
4.0

Canada/US spread: (bps)
90 day
10 year

43
15

8
-11

1,560
9.8

Note: Outlined areas represent forecast periods
The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein are provided as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. Some of the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein have been obtained from numerous sources and Bank of Montreal (“BMO”) and its affiliates make
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