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Optimistic views
1) technological progress and innovations
2) structural bonuses: e.g. narrowing ruralurban divide as a result of reformed hukou
system; privatization
3) gradual reforms under strong leadership
4) opened economy
5) still high saving rate
Two traps
1) Middle income trap
The authors are optimistic in the sense that
China will not fall into this trap. Since it is
following the path experienced by other
developed Asian economies
2) Transition trap
But what about the transition trap?
5.54
6.28
6.82
6.44
6.98
7.81
6.99
7.88
9.48
6.02
6.75
7.59
/ 1.26
1.25
1.39
2008
4.8
5.81
7.35
7.23
10.94
9.33
6.8
6.86
2.28
1.61
Institutions matter
Institutionally underdeveloped China
Vague institutions lacking in judiciary
independence to generate corruption
Corruptive, but dynamic and sweeping
marketization boosting growth so far
No rule (pre-reform era) rule by law (postreform era) rule of law (in the future
direction)