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**Variance to increase your winning
**

chances

This article deals with the strategies you can follow in nearly every game of

chance. But firstly we need to understand how casinos work - once you change

your money into chips it’s worth noting that all of your money is now at the

casino’s disposal. Essentially, they keep the money you wager on games of

chance and skill - slot machines, roulette, blackjack and baccarat to name a few

- and they payout your possible winnings . You surely already suspect that all of

these games are somehow manipulated into providing advantage for the casino.

And all of that makes perfect sense – casinos have to earn money somehow,

don’t they? Now we’ll learn more about how they do it.

Casinos make money because every game they offer has a built-in statistical

advantage for the casino called ‘the house edge’ - the edge might be very

small, but over time and the millions of bets placed by those people patronising

a casino, that edge earns the casino money.

The long-term statistics put you, as a player at a disadvantage, although it’s

quite common to play a game or two in a casino and leave with more money

than you wagered at the beginning. The effects of house edge on the game

you’re playing are rarely noticed even during a long-lasting game because its

value is often negligible. But at the same time it’s high enough to earn the casino

money in the long run. (i.e. the odds of you losing a round due to the house edge

are insignificant). And here is where fortune comes into play (or luck, if you will).

Fortune is what enables lucky winners to walk away with huge sums of money

and beat the casino at its own game. So as to maximize the potential fortune, it’s

vital to understand the two basic concepts of every game of chance:RTP

(Return to Player) and Variance.

In the next paragraphs, you’ll find out more on how to take full advantage of RTP

and variance so that you don’t inadvertently decrease your chances of winning

money back from the casino.

**What is Return to Player?
**

The term Return to Player (RTP) is defined as the long-term ratio of the winnings

from a game and the bets placed. It‘s typically expressed as a percentage, (e.g.

95 %), which would mean that out of every 100€ bet, the player may expect to

receive 95€ back in winnings. You can also think of RTP as the flip side of the

House Edge which can be calculated by subtracting the RTP value from 100%.

For instance, if the RTP is 95%, then the House Edge will be (100% - 95%) which

is 5%.

In other cases the blackjack’s RTP depends on the specific set of rules. The RTP of the strategy could be defined as “the ratio of the player’s winnings and their bets”. casinos have devised special methods aimed at preventing the aforementioned from taking place. When following the basic blackjack strategy (link na blackjack clanok). the RTP can fall anywhere within the range of 95% to 102% (the exact number depends on the cards remaining in the pack at a given moment). the amount of money the casino pays back to you slowly. the betting system used by the player and the number of packs of cards used. So if you bet your winnings from one round in a different round.The payout is 2:1.3 %. In theory. The RTP in a game of chance and the long-term RTP in a betting strategy First and foremost.3%) = 1 300€ * 2. that people who bet their winnings again far outnumber the ones who stop gambling after a fluke.97. the payout ratio when you match a certain winning combination and other specific rules typical of the given slot machine. but surely decreases. Sadly enough.7%. The RTP of slot machines The RTP of online slot machines falls within the 92% to 97% range and is determined by the placement of the symbols on the reels.3%) = 2. Say you bet 100€ and win back your bet twelvefold (1200€). for your reference).3% is the RTP of roulette. Beware of some websites however which deliberately swop the terms RTP of the game and RTP of the betting strategy. And as long as you use the wrong betting strategy. But then you bet the winnings again. it’s crucial to realize the RTP is exactly the same for every single round/hand you play – but if you want to calculate the long-term RTP you might be surprised at the fact that it can actually decrease if you utilize an ineffective betting strategy.937 = 97. your RTP can even plunge below 50%. were the player to count the cards there’s a very good chance the RTP would raise above 100% which could be exploited and used to one’s advantage. Supposing you’re playing a game of roulette you would statistically lose (100€ + 12 * 100€) * (100% 97.The RTP of roulette Let’s start with the game of roulette – when placing a bet on black colour the odds of you winning can be calculated as follows: there are 18 black numbers in the roulette’s layout and 37 numbers in total (37 since we can’t omit the 0). It’s essential to be able to distinguish between the RTP of a game itself and the RTP of the betting strategy you use. Keep in mind however.1€ (97.7% = 35. So you bet 100€ 12 times (12*100€) on a certain combination of numbers. . By doing this they give the wrong impression that the odds of losing are notably lower than in reality. hence the House Edge is (100% . thus the odds at winning are 2 * 18/37 = 0. The RTP of blackjack Should you employ the generic recommended strategy in online blackjack you can expect the RTP of around 99.5%.

we‘ve decided to devote an entire article to this issue which can be accessed by simply clicking on this sentence. the height of the bets. So if you want to maximize your chance of success you need to keep in mind that the . Cela veta bude link na ten clanok) Variance has a strong influence on your odds of leaving a casino inpocket. but when you finally win. You could place a corner bet of 100€. The RTP of any betting strategy hinges on the game’s RTP. it’s usually a substantial sum of money. Since the amount of money which can be won is directly proportional to how much money a player bets. were we to a draw a line on a graph it would slope gently down). Thus. In the games whose variance is high however. What is a betting strategy? A Betting strategy is a structured long-term approach to gambling which a player uses in the attempt to produce profit. To be precise. (pozn. the winnings are often expressed as multiples of the bet. The easiest way to achieve this (in theory) would be to bet all of the money you’re willing to lose in one round. For instance. if your aim is to win back as much money as possible you shouldn’t bet your winnings again. So in this instance the prevailing downward slope would sometimes be interrupted by the line shooting up dramatically. which would show the occurrence of winning combinations in percentage terms. variance is a measurement of the spread between the numbers in the set of player’s winnings. As a result. you win nothing back for several rounds. In the games whose variance is low you’re likely to win or lose smaller amounts of money – hence the balance of your bank account will change evenly (unfortunately. What is the Variance of a game (of chance)? In a nutshell. variance is a measurement of the change in your bank account while playing the game. However what we discovered is that variance could be described more accurately by way of a graph. the game’s variance (will be explained in the next chapter) and under what circumstances you stop playing and walk away with the money you’ve won. It’s also worth noting that the betting strategy’s RTP is often lower than the game’s RTP (although in an ideal case they can be equal). roulette players placing an outside bet on the pocket colour might win twice the initial bet and roulette players placing an inside bet selecting the exact number of the pocket the ball will land in might win 36 times the initial bet. In this case the odds are very much in your favour however the main drawback to this betting strategy is the length of your game – you can’t play for a longer period of time. Alas. If the rules of your strategy which you follow are clear and unambiguous. it’s fairly easy to determine its RTP either by calculating it or by running a computer simulation.On the other hand. establishing variance on slot machines is not so straightforward because it’s possible to win various multiples of the initial bet by matching different winning combinations. producing companies often label the variance on a slot machine using vague terms such as ‘low‘‚ ‘average‘ and ‘high‘. Say you can handle losing 100€ and you’d be satisfied with winning 900€.

8% = 95. Thus. we have an easy rule to help us : the higher the bets. Long-term betting strategy’s RTP and how it links to the game’s variance A simple and effective betting strategy can be demonstrated on a game of roulette. Player X bets 20€ on the colour black and player Y bets 5€ on the colour black . the RTP of his strategy was only (500€/100€)*5. Fortunately. when playing a game with a high variance. Long-term betting strategy’s RTP and how it’s connected to how much you bet Your winnings in a game of chance derive from how much you bet. Just for your reference.90% On the other hand. We ran both of these scenarios in a computer simulation (using a simple programme and a random number generator ).15% of the cases. From this we can calculate the RTP which in this case was equal to (648€/100€)*14. Each one of them leaves the casino as soon as they amass more than 500 € or if they lose everything. repeated the simulation a million times and the results were as follows: In 14. the better. the higher the betting strategy’s RTP assuming we’ll settle for the same sum of money as previously.8% of the cases. So that also comes into play in determining the RTP of a betting strategy. you get back precisely 99 cents.9% of the cases (on average after 84 rounds and . Player X places his bets inside on the number whereas player Y places his bets outside on the colour. the RTP of player X’s betting strategy was 3. Using a computer simulation in the same way as previously we get that player X managed to win 500€ in 10. Firstly. we can easily conclude that greater variance singnificantly improves your chances of leaving the casinos with a large sum of money. player Y‘s averaged on leaving the casino with 500€ after playing 274 rounds only in 5. From the cases explored above.15% = 25. In this case the outcome of every single round would be the same and noone could win in such a game which would make the game incredibly dull and boring. We’ll again use the game of roulette in our example – we’ll use our players X and Y who entered the casino with 100€ and will leave when they get to 500€. Notice how the variance of the game chosen affects the betting strategy’s RTP in the long run. more rounds end with players losing and so people are less likely to bet again(which negatively effects the RTP of your strategy in the long run).75%.higher the variance. Suppose there are two players both of which entered the casino with one hundred €. Secondly. Now suppose the exact opposite – an imaginary game with the variance equal to 0 and the RTP of 99%. Or you could win so much money in one round that you wouldn‘t manage to lose all of it before leaving the casino.7 times higher than the one of player Y. the likelihood is that you could get lucky and win a large enough sum of money for you to feel satisfied with. player X‘s averaged on leaving the casino with 648€ after playing 16 rounds. For each 1€ you bet.

5€ 9.71% of them left the casino with 3 600€ (RTP 97.9% avg.38% RTP 97.7% avg.67%) and every one of them played just one round.8% 52 rounds 0. We’ve established that when the bets you place and the variance are small you can play longer.40% 292 rounds 0. The question remains however. 500€ 500€ 500€ RTP 25. 500€ RTP 4. plus you can play for much longer.65% 15.9 rounds 4.9% avg.8% avg. 522€ RTP 84. The players start out with 100€ and end either after losing all of their money or after reaching 500€ or more: Bets on: Number 2€ 16.15% avg. Player Z entered the casino with 100€ and decided to bet it all on the number 1 in roulette. 12.0015% avg.55% avg. 648€ 760€ 1 825€ RTP 95.80 * 5€ = 400€).with the RTP of 54.8% avg. = average winnings in case of reaching/surpassing 500€ 100€ 2.88% of the cases(on average after 706 rounds and with the RTP of 4.71% avg.6% 3 rounds Colour Bets on: Number 0.we need to win 80 times in order to reach 500€ .41%). 555€ RTP 92. The table also shows that bets under . what should you do if you’d like to play for a while with a fairly acceptable odds at winning? In the table below you can find the results from numerous roulette simulations with various bets on either number or colour.013% 1850 rounds 5€ 16. 500€ RTP 89. 511€ RTP 70. nevertheless your odds at gaining a satisfactory amount of money plummet. At the opposite end of the spectrum are high bets and high variance.13% avg. 500€ RTP 0. 15. Player Y left the casino with 500€ in JUST 0.9 % 1083 rounds 0% RTP 0% 3698 rounds As you can see from the table the high variance you have when betting on number easily beats even the 10-times higher bets on colour at the RTP value. What’s the perfect betting strategy then? An appropriate AND working betting strategy is really just striking a balance between odds at winning back a satisfactory sum of cash and the length of your play.94% avg.7% 274 rounds 84 rounds 15 rounds Avg.67% 1 round 17.73 rounds 1.4% 706 rounds 10€ 20€ 50€ 14. The reason for this is that winning sequences of bets on the black colour are very rare (the number of wins has to be 80 units greater than the number of losses . 505€ RTP 48% 3832 rounds 0% RTP 0% 7399 rounds 1€ 13. 3 600€ RTP 97.7% RTP 54% RTP 79.5%).85% avg. 10.88% avg.33% avg. 5.96% RTP 97.97 rounds COlour 5. From 1 million players in a computer simulation 2.

Your longterm RTP might be (and usually will be) lower due to repeated betting of partial winnings. the amount of money you wager and under what circumstances you decide to leave the casino/continue gambling to win more money. The higher the bets in one round. you need to strike a balance between the time you want to play and your strategy’s RTP. Games with a high variance are in most cases favourable since the advatange of higher variance far outweighs the one of slightly greater RTP. The higher the payout ratio. the higher the variance. Variance is directly proportional to the payout ratio. Lesser bets result in a smaller house edge for the casino. Long-term RTP of your betting strategy depends on the game’s RTP. . Statistically.2€ are completely unreasonable because the odds of you leaving the casino with 500€ are zero in that case. your best bet is to play the games with high variance and place generally low bets. the higher the long-term RTP of your strategy (it effectively minimizes the house advatange). you lose no matter what bet you place. In essence. In case of playing just for the sake of it. Conclusion The RTP presented by the game-makers only applies to 1 round. the higher the chance of turning small sums of money into huge ones. place smaller bets and settle for a few strokes of luck. The higher the variance. you should look for games with high variance. So if you’re visiting a casino or are playing a game for your own enjoyment but at the same time want to have a good shot at winning something. its variance.

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