Applying Regression Models to Calculate the Q Factor

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Applying Regression Models to Calculate the Q Factor

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Factor of Multiplexed Video Signal based on

Optisystem

Ronit Rudra

Ankan Biswas

VIT University

Vellore, India

ronit.rudra2012@vit.ac.in

VIT University

Vellore, India

post2ankan_95@yahoo.com

Praneet Dutta

Prof. Aarthi G

VIT University

Vellore, India

praneet.dutta2012@vit.ac.in

VIT University

Vellore, India

aarthi.g@vit.ac.in

Dense Wavelength Multiplexing System and accurately predict

the output parameters, using machine learning techniques and

model its dependencies on the input parameters such as

Frequency, Frequency Spacing, Bit Rate and Fiber length. The

training data will be mined from Optisystem 13.0 software and

machine learning algorithms will be implemented using R and

MATLAB. The algorithms used are Multivariable regression

models and neural networks. The accuracy of the two methods

are compared. The predicted values have a close co-relation with

input parameters and cost function errors have been minimized

making use of these techniques.

KeywordsRegression; Dense Wavelength Multiplexing

System; Levenberg-Marquardt Back-propagation algorithm;

Residuals; Q-Factor; Applied Machine Learning; Neural Networks

I.

INTRODUCTION

technology that allows multiplexing of multiple optical carrier

signals on a single optical fiber by using different wavelengths

for transmission of various information sources. It forms a

more efficient source of transmission than Time Division

Multiplexing Technique. The least amount of attenuation is

achieved by transmitting at a wavelength of 1550nm.

It also allows for the expansion of the existing capacity

without laying additional fibers in optic cables. By increasing

the capacity of the existing system using multiplexers and

demultiplexers at the ends of the system, the given output can

be achieved.

Doped fiber amplifiers with erbium (EDFA - Erbium

Doped Fiber Amplifier) are used to successfully transmit

optical signals over long distances. Erbium being a rare

element when excited, emits light at a wavelength of 1, 54

m, which is the wavelength at which the attenuation of signal

takes place. [7-8]

by the optical fiber across the channel. The output parameters

used are Quality factor, Bit Error Rate, Height and the

Threshold value. The input video signal is fed in through the

transmitter side and it is multiplexed up to 64 signals are

multiplexed to one output. The given apparatus for the

experiment is shown in Figure 1.This works in the third

optical window and the attenuation across the length of the

channel is 0.2db/km. Once it reaches the receiver,

demultiplexing is performed by the DWDM demultiplexer

running at the same frequency as the multiplexer. The signal is

further passed through a photo-detector, low pass filter and a

signal regenerator to recover the original signal. The BER

analyzer provides the variables to be measured.

The data on the required input and output parameters are

gathered and analysis and modelling is done in the subsequent

topics.

II.

algorithm is data collection and formatting. Without suitably

formatted data, the algorithm cannot be used to its fullest

extent and may provide spurious and undesirable results or

even outright reject the data being provided.

Data gathering and formatting is a multistage process and

is elucidated as follows:

A. Data Mining

The first step in this process is searching for a suitable

source from which data can be efficiently acquired. For the

purpose of this paper the data mining source is Optisystem

13.0 running on Windows OS.

The DWDM system to be analyzed was constructed in the

aforementioned IDE.

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input parameters. The output parameters for each simulation

were saved as CSV (Comma Separated Valuues) text files for

subsequent parsing and analysis.

The input parameters were Numberr of Channels,

Frequency, Frequency Spacing, Power Levvel and Bitrate.

Variation in any of the input parameters createes a unique class.

For example: 32 channel, 190 THz, 100 GHz, 5 dB, 2.5 GHz is

a different class than 32 channel, 195 THz, 2000 GHz, 5 dB, 2.5

GHz. (Input parameters in order as mentioned before)

were Q-Factor, Minimum BER, Threshold annd Maximum Eye

Height. Thus, for the purpose of this ppaper, the input

parameter combinations amount to 10 classes and each class

has 10 simulations with each simulation havinng 4 sets of data

files corresponding to the aforementioned ouutput parameters.

The number of classes, simulations as well as output

parameters can be changed to suit specific neeeds. Figures 1-4

provide graphs of the output variables.

B. Data Parsing and Formatting

After the required data has been collected successfully, the

subsequent stage is to parse and convert the data into a

suitable form which can be accepted by the software or IDE

running the classifier. In this case the classifieer is being run on

MATLAB which can accept data files in .csv or .xlsx

formats.

Therefore the objective of this stage is to rread the collected

data, extract the required information andd format it for

application.

The programming language R was chosen as a suitable

candidate to perform this step as it is an efficiient tool for data

analysis. R version 3.1.3 was run on RStuddio IDE for this

purpose.

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follows:

g sub-folders identified by

Parent Directory containing

input parameters

Each sub-folder contains N folders named 1 to N

where N is the number of sim

mulations run for that input

parameter. For our purpose N was taken to be 10.

Each simulation sub-folderr contains four text files

corresponding to the daata of the four output

parameters.

corresponding to an output parameter i.e. the abscissa

and ordinate values.

Thus the R function traverrses the whole directory

containing the data. The step-by-steep procedure is as follows:

The directory of the required input parameter and its

a passed as arguments to

corresponding class label are

the function

The function traverses each simulation folder in order

For each simulation folder, it reads the text files and

mes, then merges them into

converts them into data fram

a single data frame.

ns corresponding to each of

The data frame has column

the output data.

The required values are extraacted from the data frame.

Fig. 5. Graph of Eye Diagram Height

read the CSV text files containing the data, create data frames,

extract useful values, and add the correct class labels to the

data. Then all the relevant data is stored onnto a single CSV

text file.

Fig. 6 shows a text file of data points of BER versus

Simulation time. The minimum BER, beiing one of the

parameters, has to be extracted from this datta. As shown the

data is quite cumbersome to analyze and therre are a hundred

of such files.

d to the last column of the

data frame (Fig. 8.)

Another data frame is creatted which relates the class

labels to the input parameterrs (Fig. 7.)

The two data frames com

mprising of the input and

output are merged togetherr and the class labels are

discarded (Fig. 9.)

The simulation data is exp

text file.

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properties:

Number of instances is 100

Number of predictor variaables, given by first five

columns, amount to 5.

Fig. 7. Class Labels defined for input parameter combinnations (data frame in

R)

The last four columns are th

Regression models are to be designed.

Figures 11. To 14. Show the plots of all the output

parameters versus the simulation in

ndex. The regions bounded

by the dashed demarcations indiccate the output classes as

shown in Fig. 7. After brief maanual analysis of the data

through plots, summaries, quantilee estimations etc., the next

phase of the design is tackled.

for parsing and analysis of data as it is intuiitive and manual

analysis of data is easier (Fig. 9.).

The final CSV file (Fig. 10.) will be fed as training data to

the algorithm for generation of a linear model..

C. Exploratory Analysis

After successfully extracting the required iinformation from

the collected data, it makes sense to visualizee the data to look

for patterns. Exploratory analysis is useful as one can quickly

mber of plotting

analyze the obtained data using a large num

methodologies such as scatter plots, histogram

ms, bar plots, line

plots, contours etc.

R has strong graphic capabilities and is a suitable tool to

visualize data.

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response variable, x denotes a value of the independent

variable, and the i-values denote the model parameters.

The quantity is called the conditional mean or the expected

value of Y given the value of x. Many distribution functions

have been proposed for use in the analysis of a dichotomous

response variable (Hosmer and Lemeshow, 1989; Agresti,

1984; Feinberg, 1980).

Regression makes use of the Sigmoid Function. Unlike the

Heaviside function which instantaneously steps from 0 to

1(which makes it difficult to deal with), the function gradually

changes .Mathematically it is given by:

III.

REGRESSION MODELS

A. Theory

Regression methods have become an integral component

of any data analysis concerned with the relationship between a

response variable and one or more explanatory variables. The

most common regression method is conventional regression

analysis (CRA), either linear or nonlinear, when the response

variable is continuous (IID or independent and identically

distributed). However, when the outcome (the response

variable) is discrete, CRA is not appropriate. Among several

reasons, the following two are the most significant:

1) The response variable in CRA must be continuous, and

2) The response variable in CRA can take non-negative

values.

These two primary assumptions are not satisfied when the

response variable is categorical.

TABLE I.

Collection

Preparation of Data

Analyze

Train

Test

Use

Numeric Values are needed for a distance calculation.

A structured data format is the best

Any Method

Majority of Time Complexity is spent on this

This is relatively easy once the training step is done

The application applies regression calculation on

input data and determines which class the input data

should belong to. The application then takes some

action on calculated class.

using logistic regression is the same as that of any modelbuilding technique used in statistics: to find the best fit and the

most parsimonious one. What distinguishes a logistic

regression model from a linear regression model is the

response variable. In the logistic regression model, the

response variable is binary or dichotomous.

For the given data we design Regression Models using

Multiple Regression and Multivariate Multiple Regression

B. Multiple Regression

Linear Regression creates a model of the outcome variable

on the basis of a single predictor variable.

The Linear Regression model with predictor X and

outcome Y is given by:

Equation (1)

Where B is the Bias and C is the weight.

The equation (1) is a straight line with B as the intercept

and C as the slope. Hence Linear Regression determines a

straight line for modelling the relation between Y and X.

Now, Multiple Regression means that the outcome variable

Y is modelled to multiple predictor variables. This creates a

model in a higher dimensional plane whose dimension equals

the number of predictor variables plus the outcome itself. One

disadvantage is that the model cannot be visualized if the

number of predictor variables is more than two since

visualization is impossible exceeding three dimensions.

Therefore we have the model as follows:

Equation (2)

Where, B = Bias

Ci = Weight of ith Predictor

N = Total number of predictors

reflected both in the choice of a parametric model and in the

assumptions. Once this difference is accounted for, the

methods employed in an analysis using logistic regression

follow the same general principles used in linear regression

analysis.

value of the response variable given the values of the

Spacing

Predictors:

Channels

Frequency

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quantifier of how far the predicted

d model deviates from the

actual data. Lower value of Residu

ual is of course desirable as

the linear model becomes more acccurate. Figure. 15. Shows a

table of residuals for each instaance of each model. The

objective is to minimize the residuaals.

Power

Bitrate

Outcome:

Maximum Height

Minimum BER

Q Factor

Threshold

Now, the linear models are defined with thhe predictors and

outcome variables. RStudio was used to moddel the data. The

variables were passed to a function in the fo

form of Formula

class which relates the output columns to thee input columns.

They are as follows:

Threshold have very low residual values while Min.BER and

ual values. This may lead

Q.Factor have fairly high residu

someone to believe that the first tw

wo of the models mentioned

are accurate while the latter two aree inaccurate. This might not

be the case always and therefore we

w need to examine another

parameter, namely, Mean Square Error.

E

The function predict(linear mod

del, dataframe) predicts the

output based on the linear model and

a data frame passed to it.

The output is a vector contaiining the predicted data

corresponding to each row of the prredictor data.

Error which is taken to be the cosst function to determine the

accuracy of the model. MSE is giveen by:

The function lm(formula, dataframe) ccreates a linear

model based on the formula and the data fraame passed to it.

Hence, we have 4 linear models from the aforementioned

formulae. lm() works on the dataset provided to it and outputs

an object of class list which contains all the ddata pertaining to

the model such as coefficients, residuals, devviances, quantiles

etc. Fig. 15. Shows the bias (interceptt) and weights

(coefficients) of each linear model.

Equation

n (3)

Where, Xpredicted = Predicted Outtput

Xobserved = Observed Output

N = Total number of observations

he observed and predicted

The Square Error between th

output was calculated and for all the four models and their

o 20 show graphs of MSE

graphs were plotted. Figures 17 to

versus the instance.

coefficients because they have a constant vaalue in the given

dataset. They have been included in the m

model to prevent

incorrect predictions due to confoundingg variables i.e.

variables which indirectly affect relationshipp between input

and output. These values can be used in equation (2) to

develop a prediction model.

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Fig. 17. MSE versus Instance for Height

(Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing) curve for the data

along with the 95% confidence interval for the curve is given

by the dark grey region. The LOWESS curve gives us the

general trend in the data.

As mentioned earlier the data set on which the operations

are being performed have 100 simulations with 10 class labels

and each one of these class labels occupies 10 instances each.

Hence, we can divide the x axis of the plots into 10 regions of

10 instances each. On closer inspection it was concluded that,

for example, in instances 1 through 10, the MSE value was

higher at first and then went down. This is visible in all the

regions as well. Thus, the MSE regresses towards a minimum

mean value in all the plots.

The confidence intervals in Figures 19 and 20 occupy a

broader region indicating the fact that prediction is not as

accurate. Another concern is that for a class region, the MSE

decreases first, reaches the minimum and then increases or

vice versa.

IV.

a technique for estimating multiple outcome variables which

depend on multiple predictor variables. The outcome variables

may or may not be independent of each other. This technique

is similar to Multiple Regression with the sole addition of

multiple outputs.

For estimating the model using this technique, we utilized

Neural Networks and more specifically the LevenbergMarquardt Back-propagation Algorithm.

A. Theory

The most fundamental processing unit of neural systems is

a neural. It receives various signals from the inputs, combines

them and performs anon-linear operation to produce an output.

model. It consists of an input layer, an output layer and hidden

layers. The number of hidden layers taken depends on the

specific application and type of neural network being built.

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number of inputs. On moving from one llayer to another

weights are assigned to each transition. Ann additional Bias

Unit is added to the preceding layer while movving forward.

The non-linear transfer functions which ccan be used areHyperbolic Tangent, Sine and Sigmoid Funcction Fig. 20. A

linear function can also be used but doess not match the

accuracy of a non-linear one. For our algorithhm we make use

of the Sigmoid Function which is of the form:

The data samples are random

is assigned to Training and

d the rest 30% is equally

divided into Validation and Testing.

T

p

Training; Validation;

The data is divided into 3 parts,

Testing.

ned using the given data

After training, validation and

a

testing the networks

accuracy is gauged by its

i MSE and Regression

Coefficient.

Retraining can be done if the results are not

satisfactory by changing daata, number of hidden layer

neurons or by changing the percentage assigned to the

three phases of training.

dden layer neurons for the

We used 10,100 and 1000 hid

design and figures 22 to 24 show th

he MSE values for the three

designs as the training progresses.

Figure 26. Shows the Error Histogram for the 1000 layer

network. The result is satisfactory as the maximum frequency

of instances in the minimum errror region denoted by the

yellow vertical line.

B. Back-propagation algorithm

This algorithm was originally introduced inn the 1970s.It is

a very efficient technique for calculating thee output variable

compared to previous techniques. The inittial weights are

configured and random weights are associiated with each

transition.

Figure 27. Shows the regression

training and an overall trend of the 1000 hidden layer network.

The Lines fit to 99.99% and hence the design is quite accurate

f corresponds to training,

in predicting new data. The blue fill

the green fill to validation and the red

r to testing.

work progresses

further and predicts an output based on thesee weights. In our

training example (70% of the data set), we havve a given output

and we compare that with our predicted output. Now, the

gradient of each step is computed starting from the error

function and it now propagates backwards.

This goes on till the first hidden layer. The weights are

now re-assigned. This process continues for aall the remaining

training examples until it reaches its most optimal

solution.15% of the data set is reserved for crross-validation as

shown in the Figure it fits with an accuracy oof 99%. Finally

the network is now ready to train any new

w value of input

parameter.

C. Procedure

After finalizing the design parameters, thee neural network

(Fig. 25) is designed on MATLAB.

The design procedure is as follows:

The final data which was parsed is spllit into two parts

containing the input and output variables.

The number of neurons in the hidden layer as well as

the transfer function (sigmoid in this caase) is decided.

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V.

CONCL

LUSION

s

a co-variance between

the input data set and the output. On

O comparing the efficiency

of perceptron model with that of neural

n

networks we see that

Neural Network Model converges at

a a faster rate as compared

to the regression model.

Thus Multivariate Multiple Reg

better alternative than the Multiplee Regression Model for the

data we utilized. We were able to em

mulate only 5 inputs for the

designed optical network out of which only 2 were varied. The

ge depending on the number

accuracy and efficiency may chang

of input instances as well on the number of attributes. It is

t obtain a more accurate

necessary to vary all the inputs to

model.

nough data spanning a wide

Thus, we conclude that given en

parameter list of the simulated

d optical communication

network, it is possible to create an independent prediction

model which, after training utilizes less resources and is faster

d

of accuracy than the

at predicting outputs with a high degree

traditional simulation software, esp

pecially in the field where

such licensed softwares are not avaiilable for quick analysis.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We would like to thank VIT University -Department of

Electronics for providing us witth the resources and Lab

facilities, especially licensed versiions of MATLAB R2013b

and Optisystem 13.0 for carrying out the project, Professors

G

for their guidance in

Arulmozhivarman P. and Sankar Ganesh

mining the Data from the software.

REFERENCE

ES

S Ilic, B. Jaksic, M. Petrovic A. Mark

kovic, V. Elcic, "Analysis of Video

Signal Transmission Through DWDM

M Network Based on a Quality

Check Algorithm" Vol 3, _o. 2, 2013, 416-423

4

[2] M. T. Fatehi, M. Wilson, Optical Neetworking with WDM, McGrawHill, New York, 2001

mation of filtered signal envelope

[3] M. Stefanovic, D. Milic, "An approxim

with phase noise in coherent optical systems", Journal of Lightwave

Technology, Vol .19, No. 11, pp. 1685-1690, 2001

mance of optical heterodyne PSK

[4] I. Djordjevic, M. Stefanovic, "Perform

systems with Costas loop in multich

hannel environment for nonlinear

second-order PLL model", Journal off Lightwave Technology Vol. 17,

No.12, pp. 2470-2479, 1999

O

Networks: A Practical

[5] R. Ramaswami, K. Sivarajan, Optical

Perspective, 2nd ed., Morgan Kaufm

mann Publishers, San Francisco,

2002

W

(Eds), Optical Fiber

[6] I. P. Kaminow, T. Li, A. Willner

Telecommunications V, Elsevier/Acad

demic Press, 2008

[7] G. Agrawal, Nonlinear Fiber Optics, 2n

nd Ed., Academic Press, 2001

[8] G. Agrawal, Fiber-Optic Communicatiion Systems, 3nd Ed., Wiley, 2002

[9] E. G. Sauter, Nonlinear Optics, John Wiley

W

& Sons, Inc., New York

[10] Peter Harrington, Machine Learning in

i Action, DreamTech Press,2012

http://neuralnetworksanddeeplearning.com/chap2.htm

[1]

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