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9 views51 pagesThe market price-dividend ratio is highly correlated with several macroeconomic variables but not with aggregate consumption growth. We incorporate this observation in an exchange economy with learning about the economic regime from consumption history and a latent signal. The estimated model fits well the moments of consumption and dividend growth, stock market return, price-dividend ratio, and risk-free rate and performs well in predictive regressions while a nested model with learning from consumption history alone does not.

Jan 09, 2017

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The market price-dividend ratio is highly correlated with several macroeconomic variables but not with aggregate consumption growth. We incorporate this observation in an exchange economy with learning about the economic regime from consumption history and a latent signal. The estimated model fits well the moments of consumption and dividend growth, stock market return, price-dividend ratio, and risk-free rate and performs well in predictive regressions while a nested model with learning from consumption history alone does not.

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The market price-dividend ratio is highly correlated with several macroeconomic variables but not with aggregate consumption growth. We incorporate this observation in an exchange economy with learning about the economic regime from consumption history and a latent signal. The estimated model fits well the moments of consumption and dividend growth, stock market return, price-dividend ratio, and risk-free rate and performs well in predictive regressions while a nested model with learning from consumption history alone does not.

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Anisha Ghosh

George M. Constantinides

Carnegie-Mellon University

anishagh@andrew.cmu.edu

gmc@chicagobooth.edu

Abstract

The market price-dividend ratio is highly correlated with several macroeconomic variables

but not with aggregate consumption growth. We incorporate this observation in an exchange

economy with learning about the economic regime from consumption history and a latent

signal. The estimated model fits well the moments of consumption and dividend growth, stock

market return, price-dividend ratio, and risk-free rate and performs well in predictive

regressions while a nested model with learning from consumption history alone does not. The

intuition is that the beliefs process has high persistence and low variance because beliefs

depend on consumption growth and the signal. The model fit remains largely intact when we

replace the latent signal with the innovation in the CPI, hourly earnings, or a combination of

macroeconomic variables highly correlated with the price-dividend ratio. The results

highlight the informational role of macroeconomic variables but not aggregate consumption

growth.

Keywords: macroeconomic news; CPI; hourly earnings; learning models; asset pricing

JEL classification: E3, G12, G14

We thank Daniel Andrei, Bruce Grundy, Michael Johannes, Christian Julliard, Ralph Koijen, Rajnish Mehra, Stefan Nagel, Lubos

Pastor, Anna Pavlova, Allan Timmermann, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Michael Weber, and seminar participants at the London

School of Economics for their helpful advice and feedback and we thank Yiran Fan for outstanding research assistance.

Constantinides received financial support from the Center for Research in Security Prices, the University of Chicago and as

trustee/director of the DFA group of funds, SW7 Holdings, Cook County Illinois Investment Policy Committee, and as member

of the advisory board of FTSE-Russell.

Introduction

An overload of worldwide macroeconomic, business, and political news inundates investors. Little is known

as to how investors cope with this vast amount of information, and, in particular, which subset of information

they pay attention to. In the macro-finance literature, researchers typically model investors as focusing on

the histories of a limited number of macroeconomic variables and applying a filter to rationally extract

relevant information about the economy. Prominent examples include regime-switching models, where the

regimes are latent and investors filter their beliefs about the current economic regime (hereafter referred to

as the state) from the history of aggregate consumption alone. These models fare poorly at explaining

several features of stock market data, including the high average level of the equity premium, the low level

of the risk-free rate, and the excess volatility of asset prices relative to subsequent movements of

fundamentals.

Recent literature argues that a more challenging high-dimensional learning problem confronts

investors where they need to learn not only about the current state but also about the true underlying model

and its parameters, and that such a learning problem plays an important role in enhancing the empirical

performance of these models. While parameter and model uncertainty are undoubtedly important issues, in

this paper we question the other central assumption of learning models, namely that investors form their

beliefs about the economic state from consumption history alone.

We find that two broad categories of macroeconomic information are the most highly correlated with

the market-wide price-dividend ratio. The first category consists of price levels, including the Consumer

Price index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). The second category

consists of labor markets, including the average hourly earnings, average hours of production, and numbers

of employees in private non-farm payrolls in different sectors. On the other hand, contrary to the implications

of learning models where investors are assumed to learn from the consumption history alone, the pricedividend ratio has negligible correlation with the contemporaneous consumption growth as well as an

exponentially-weighted average of current and lagged consumption growth rates.

The above features of the data, along with the observation that a multitude of additional

macroeconomic information is publicly available, suggests that the poor empirical performance of standard

learning models may be driven, at least in part, by the stringent assumption of learning from the consumption

history alone. Therefore, in this paper, we consider a learning process where investors learn not only from

the history of consumption but also from a latent signal or from judiciously chosen macroeconomic variables:

innovation in the CPI, hourly earnings, or a combination of macroeconomic variables highly correlated with

the price-dividend ratio.

1

We consider a representative-investor real exchange economy as in Lucas (1978). We isolate the role

of broadening the investors information set by abstracting from model and parameter uncertainty and

assuming that the investor knows the economic model and its parameters. The aggregate consumption and

stock market dividend processes have different means in two latent economic regimes. Each period the

investor rationally updates the probability that the economy is in the first regimeher beliefsby observing

the updated history of aggregate consumption and an unspecified signal with innovations orthogonal to those

of aggregate consumption and dividend growth. The signal is deliberately left unspecified at first in order to

investigate potential sources of signals over and above aggregate consumption, the commonly assumed

signal in the literature. The investor is assumed to have recursive preferences as in Epstein and Zin (1989)

and Weil (1990). We numerically solve for the equilibrium stock market price-dividend ratio, the conditional

mean, volatility, and Sharpe ratio of the market return, and the short-term interest rate as functions of the

investors beliefs. We estimate the model parameters using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM).

The model provides a good fit to the sample moments of consumption growth and dividend growth, market

return, market-wide price-dividend ratio, and risk-free rate.

In contrast we show that an alternative nested model in which the investor learns from the

consumption history alone fails along a number of dimensions: it generates an average equity premium of only

0.5% compared to its sample counterpart of 5.6% over the entire available sample period from 1929 to 2013,

thereby failing to account for the equity premium puzzle; it implies less than 1% volatility of the market-wide

price-dividend ratio which is two orders of magnitude smaller than the 45.5% value observed in the data, thereby

failing to explain the excess volatility puzzle; it implies a high correlation of over 50% between consumption

growth and the innovation in the risk-free rate, in stark contrast to its sample counterpart of -1%.

The success of the main model is a particularly strong result because the model has only one

additional parameter compared to the alternative model. The question, therefore, arises as to what drives the

superior performance of the main model. The crux of the intuition lies in the stark contrast between the

properties of the state and beliefs processes in the two models. In the main model the state process and the

beliefs processes have high persistence and low variance while in the alternative model these processes have

much lower persistence and high variance. In the main model the high persistence of the state process imparts

high persistence in the investors beliefs and renders the price-dividend ratio highly persistent, consistent

with the data. Also, the current beliefs are highly informative about the future and, therefore, the pricedividend ratio is highly responsive to changes in beliefs. This feature of the learning process explains why

the price-dividend ratio is highly variable in this model, consistent with the data.

In the alternative model, on the other hand, the current beliefs provide little information about the

future and this leads to the counterfactual predictions that the price-dividend ratio is essentially constant and

2

the volatility of the market return equals the volatility of aggregate dividend growth. If the state process and,

therefore, the beliefs process were highly persistent, then the mean consumption growth would be very

different in the two states, thereby imparting a counterfactually high volatility in the consumption growth

process.

The high persistence in the beliefs process in the main model, combined with the preference for early

resolution of uncertainty, yields a high equity premium and low risk-free rate, consistent with the data. In

contrast, in the alternative model the low persistence of the beliefs process yields a low equity premium.

Finally, consistent with the data, the main model generates strong time-variation in the conditional

mean and variance of the market return. Perhaps more impressive is the observation that it does so without

relying on countercyclical heteroscedasticity of the consumption growth rate (the volatility of consumption

growth in the two states is set equal to a single constant in the model)a phenomenon for which there is

limited empirical evidence. Instead, the model generates this feature of the data from the heteroscedasticity

of the beliefs process.

We further assess the empirical plausibility of the main and alternative models with predictive

regressions for consumption growth, dividend growth and market return. For the main model, the predictive

regressions yield slope coefficients and R 2 that are consistent with the data. In particular, the model generates

the low predictive power of the price-dividend ratio for the 1-year ahead as well as long horizon consumption

growth rates, consistent with the data. This stands in stark contrast with the long-run risks model of Bansal

and Yaron (2004) that implies an order of magnitude higher R 2 in forecasting regressions of the 1-year and

3-year ahead consumption growth rates and two orders of magnitude higher R 2 in a forecasting regression of

the 5-year ahead consumption growth rate on the price-dividend ratio. The superior performance of our main

model is rendered possible because it does not rely on the persistence of consumption growth to generate key

asset pricing results, relying instead on the persistence of macro variables in the information set. For the

alternative model, on the other hand, all regression coefficients have the wrong sign, further demonstrating

that the alternative model does not fit the data.

We provide further evidence in support of the main model by setting the, so far, latent signal equal

to one of the macroeconomic variables that have high correlation with the market-wide price-dividend ratio.

We find that the main model retains its good empirical fit when the signal is set equal to one of these

macroeconomic variables compared to when the signal is left unspecified. In fact, not only does the model

fare much better than the alternative model at matching the unconditional moments of asset prices and returns,

it also generates a time series of the price-dividend ratio that lines up much more closely with the historical time

series compared to the alternative model. In particular, in the main model, the implied time series of the price3

dividend ratio has correlation 0.69 with the historical time series when the signal is set equal to the innovation

in the CPI and correlation 0.70 with the historical time series when the signal is set equal to the innovation in

the average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls in the

manufacturing sector. In contrast the alternative model generates a time series of the price-dividend ratio that

has correlation close to zero with the historical series. These results provide strong support for the economic

mechanism highlighted in the main model. However, we stress that the two particular macro variables

considered here are intended only as an illustration of our central insight regarding the pivotal role of the

information set and that we do not claim that the investor exclusively learns from these variables, in addition

to consumption growth.

The paper draws on several strands of the literature. It draws on the extant literature that focuses on

learning about latent states or a single parameter as in Ai (2010), Bansal and Shaliastovich (2011), Croce,

Lettau, and Ludvigson (2015), Drechsler (2013), Li (2005), Nieuwerburgh and Veldkamp (2006)), and

Veronesi (2000). Pastor and Veronesi (2009) review learning models. Several papers highlight learning from

macroeconomic variables. Andrei, Hasler, and Jeanneretz (2016) study learning from macroeconomic

variables about the persistence of expected economic growth rather than about its level. Basak (2005) surveys

the literature on learning by agents with heterogeneous beliefs. DAcundo, Hoang, and Weber (2016) study

announcements of future increases in consumption taxes to generate inflation expectations and accelerate

consumption expenditure. David and Veronesi (2013) study learning from inflation shocks and address the

money illusion and the covariance between stock and bond returns. Gurkaynak, Sack, and Swanson (2005)

argue that investors adjust their expectations of the long-run level of inflation in response to macroeconomic

and monetary policy surprises. Finally Hall (2014) examines learning from unemployment and addresses

discount rates.

The paper also draws on the empirical evidence in Albuquerque, Eichenbaum, and Rebelo (2012),

Duffee (2005), Greenwald, Lettau, and Ludvigson (2015), and Lettau and Ludvigson (2013) that the

correlation between the stock market return and aggregate consumption growth is weak.

The paper relates to models of ambiguity by Collin-Dufresne, Johannes, and Lochstoer (2016),

Epstein and Schneider (2003), Hansen and Sargent (2001), Johannes, Lochstoer, and Mou (2016), Klibanoff,

Marinacci, and Mukerji (2005), and Maccheroni, Marinacci, and Rustichini (2006). Specifically, CollinDufresne, Johannes, and Lochstoer (2016) and Johannes, Lochstoer, and Mou (2016) argue that introducing

a high-dimensional learning problem where the investor needs to learn not only about the latent state(s), but

also about the true underlying model and its parameters, plays an important role in enhancing the empirical

performance of these models. Johannes, Lochstoer, and Mou (2016) assume that the investor learns either

from consumption history alone or from a combination of consumption and GDP histories. In all cases, their

4

model overstates the mean risk-free rate by a factor of two and understates the volatility of the market-wide

price-dividend ratio. Our paper, on the other hand, abstracts from parameter and model uncertainty while

expanding the information set of the investor to accommodate learning from judiciously chosen

macroeconomic variables, in addition to consumption growth. Our results suggest that this simple

modification to the investors information set greatly improves the empirical performance of the model.

Finally the paper draws on the long-run risks literature by Bansal and Yaron (2004) and Hansen,

Heaton, and Li (2008) who argue for the presence of a small predictable component in aggregate

consumption and dividend growth. Note that our model also implies the presence of a predictable component

in aggregate consumption and dividend growth. Beeler and Campbell (2012) and Constantinides and Ghosh

(2011) point out that long-run risks models imply too high higher-order autocorrelations and, therefore,

excessive predictability of consumption growth by the price-dividend ratio. By contrast, our main model

implies an autocorrelation function for consumption growth that is close to zero at all lags, consistent with

the data. This is rendered possible because, in our model, although consumption growth is not very persistent,

the additional signal is and this enables the investor to learn about the current economic state as well as

forecast the future based on the history of the signal.

The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. In Section 2 we launch a systematic investigation

of the sources of macroeconomic information that drive aggregate prices. We present the main model and

derive its pricing implications in Section 3. We discuss the data in Section 4. The empirical methodology,

estimation results, and interpretation are presented in Section 5, along with a comparison between the main

model and the alternative one. In Section 6 we interpret the economic regimes. In Section 7 we present

predictive regressions for consumption growth, dividend growth, and market return. In Section 8 we provide

further evidence in support of the main model by setting the signal equal to macroeconomic variables most

highly correlated with the market-wide price-dividend ratio. We conclude in Section 9.

At the core of consumption-based asset pricing is the insight that asset prices reflect investors beliefs about

macroeconomic outcomes. This naturally raises a number of central questions. Given the large amount of

macroeconomic information available to investors, which subset of information do investors pay the most

attention to? How do they process this information to form beliefs about macroeconomic outcomes? In the

consumption-based asset pricing literature, learning models typically hypothesize that investors learn about

the latent economic regime from the history of consumption alone. These models perform poorly in

explaining several stylized facts of asset market data including the equity premium, risk-free rate, and excess

5

volatility puzzles. The poor performance of these models may potentially be attributed to the restrictive

assumption that the information set of investors is the history of aggregate consumption alone. In this section

we present evidence supporting this argument.

We relate the market-wide price-dividend ratio to a broad cross-section of publicly available

macroeconomic variables. The 106 macroeconomic variables we consider are obtained from the Global

Insights Basic Economic Database and may be broadly classified into the following six categories: (1) output

and income, which includes personal income, industrial production index (total as well as disaggregated by

the type of product), and capacity utilization measures; (2) labor markets, which includes the unemployment

rate, unemployment insurance claims, and employees in different sectors; (3) housing, which includes the

number of authorized permits to build houses and the number of new housing constructions started in

different geographical regions of the US; (4) consumption, orders, and inventories, which includes real

personal consumption expenditures, the Index of Consumer Expectations, manufacturing and trade sales,

manufacturing and trade inventories, ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales, and new orders

for different types of goods (consumer goods and materials, durable goods, nondefense capital goods); (5)

money and credit, including M1, M2, currency held by the public, commercial and industrial loans

outstanding, consumer credit outstanding, and the ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income;

and (6) prices, which includes the producer price index for different types of goods, the consumer price index

for different goods and services, and the commodity prices index.

The price-dividend ratio is persistent but stationary with first-order autocorrelation coefficient 0.86

which is statistically smaller than one over the entire available sample period from 1890 to 2013. We apply

transformations to some of the macroeconomic variables to make them stationary. Each of the transformed

variables has first-order autocorrelation coefficient less than 0.9, thereby suggesting that it can appropriately

be characterized as stationary. We refer the reader to Ludvigsons website for a detailed description of the

macroeconomic

variables

and

the

transformations

applied

to

make

them

stationary

(http://www.econ.nyu.edu/user/ludvigsons/Data&ReplicationFiles.zip).

We relate the price-dividend ratio to the macroeconomic variables by running univariate regressions

of the price-dividend ratio on the 106 transformed macroeconomic variables. In figure 1 we present the R 2

of these regressions. The figure reveals that prices and labor markets are two of the broad categories of macro

variables that are strongly related to the price-dividend ratio. We obtain a similar ranking when we regress

the price-dividend ratio on an exponentially-weighted moving average of the current and lagged values of

the macro variables with five and ten lags.

[Figure 1 here]

6

The price variables include the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI), and the

implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures. The regression of the price-dividend ratio on

the CPI for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for all items has R 2 = 48.2% . The regressions on the CPI-U for

disaggregated expenditure categories all have high R 2 as well: 66.0% for apparel and upkeep, 61.5% for

medical care, 58.8% for durables, 49.4% for services, 40.4% for commodities, and 19.4% for

transportation. Regressions on the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures on durables,

nondurables, and services have high R 2 : 70.5%, 27.3%, and 63.0%, respectively. Finally regressions on the

PPI variables have somewhat smaller, but still substantial, R 2 : 27.4% for finished goods, 18.8% for finished

consumer goods, and 15.9% for intermediate materials supplies and components.

The second category of variables strongly related to the price-dividend ratio corresponds to the labor

market. In particular regressions on the average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees

on private nonfarm payrolls in the manufacturing sector, goods-producing sector, and construction sector

have R 2 42.4%, 36.8%, and 20.7%, respectively. Regressions on the average weekly hours of production

and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls in the manufacturing and goods-producing

sectors have R 2 30.8% and 24.6%, respectively. Finally, regressions on the number of employees on nonfarm

payrolls in the financial sector, retail trade sector, wholesale trade, and trade, transportation, and utilities

sector have R 2 13.4%, 13.3%, 11.4%, and 10.8%, respectively.

Note that, in the consumption-based asset pricing literature, most existing learning models assume

that investors learn from the consumption history alone. Therefore, the equilibrium price-dividend ratio is a

function of the investors beliefs which, in turn, depend on the history of consumption growth alone.

However, a regression of the market-wide price-dividend ratio on the contemporaneous consumption growth

produces a statistically insignificant slope coefficient and R 2 = 1.7% ; and regressions of the price-dividend

ratio on an exponentially-weighted moving average of the contemporaneous and lagged consumption growth

rates produce even smaller R 2 = 0.72% and 0.05%, respectively, when five and ten lags of the consumption

growth are included in the regressor.

The above results suggest that a substantial fraction of the variation in the price-dividend ratio can

indeed be explained by variations in macroeconomic variables, but not by the one variable commonly

assumed in the literature, namely the aggregate consumption growth. Of course, if the information set of the

investors were expanded to include additional macroeconomic variables, then their beliefs and, therefore, the

equilibrium price-dividend ratio would depend on these variables in addition to consumption growth, a

feature that seems to be supported by the data. In the next section we formalize these observations by

specifying a learning model where investors learn about the economic regime from the consumption history,

as in the standard model, but also from an additional signal.

2.1

Model Description

We consider a representative-investor real exchange economy. We assume that the investor knows the

economic model and its parameters. We model the aggregate consumption and dividend growth rates as

having different means across two latent regimes, st = 1, 2 , as

ct +1= c , st +1 + c c ,t +1

(1)

dt +1= d , st +1 + d d ,t +1 ,

(2)

and

where ct and dt are the logarithms of aggregate consumption and stock market dividend, respectively. The

means of consumption and dividend growth rates, c , s

t +1

t +1

the two regimes and are driven by a two-valued scalar state variable, st = 1, 2 , that denotes the economic

regime. The volatilities of consumption growth, c , and dividend growth, d , are assumed to be constant

across the two regimes, motivated by the observation that strong countercyclical heteroscedasticity is not a

feature of macroeconomic data. 1 The shocks c ,t +1 and d ,t +1 are i.i.d. standard normal with zero crosscorrelation. Note that, although the shocks c ,t +1 and d ,t +1 are uncorrelated, the correlation between the

consumption and dividend growth rates is generally non-zero because the means of the consumption and

dividend growth rates are different in the two regimes.

We assume that st is a Markov process with transition probability matrix

1 2

1

,

2

1 1

(3)

See Campbell, Pflueger, and Viceira (2015)). In addition to there being limited empirical evidence supporting heteroscedasticity

of macro data, our modeling choice of constant volatility of consumption and dividend growth in the two states is also made to

highlight that our key results obtain even in the absence such heteroscedasticity. Allowing for heteroscedasticity is likely to further

enhance the performance of the model as it provides an additional source of risk premia.

i | st 1 =

i ) and 0 < i < 1 for i = 1, 2 . The unconditional probability of st = 1 is

where i prob ( st =

(1 2 ) / ( 2 1 2 ) .

We assume that the investor does not observe the regime at time t but learns from a history of signals,

( t ) . We assume that the investors history of signals is ( t ) = {c , x } = ,...,t , where x is a scalar reflecting

additional variables that investors rely on to form beliefs about the economic regime.

Most of the existing literature typically assumes that the investors history of signals is simply the

consumption history, ( t ) = {c } = ,...,t . These models fare poorly in explaining the high observed level of

the equity premium, the low level of the risk-free rate, and the excess volatility of asset prices relative to

fundamentals. The crux of our model lies in allowing investors to form their beliefs not only from the history

of consumption but also from other publicly available macroeconomic variablesa natural modeling choice

given the multitude of publicly available informationand exploring the resulting improvement in the

empirical performance of the model.

The case where the investors history of signals is the consumption and dividend histories,

( t ) = {c , d } = ,...,t , leads to as poor results as the case where the investors history of signals is the

consumption history alone for two reasons. First, dividend growth is not very persistent and, in fact, it has

an even smaller first-order autocorrelation coefficient than the consumption growth rate. As we shall see

later on it is important that the signal be persistent. Moreover, similar to the conclusions obtained for the

consumption growth rate, a regression of the market-wide price-dividend ratio on the contemporaneous

dividend growth produces a statistically insignificant slope coefficient and 2 = 1.0%; and regressions of

the price-dividend ratio on an exponentially-weighted moving average of the contemporaneous and lagged

dividend growth rates also produce small 2 = 3.4% and 11.4%, respectively, when five and ten lags of the

dividend growth are included in the regressor. These are substantially smaller than those obtained with the

inflation and labor market variables.

We assume that the scalar signal xt +1 has constant volatility but different mean across the two regimes

as

=

xt +1 x , st +1 + x ,t +1 ,

(4)

where x ,t +1 is i.i.d. standard normal and orthogonal to c ,t +1 and d ,t +1 . Without loss of generality we set

x ,1 = 0 and = 1 . Furthermore we simplify the notation by denoting x ,2 by .

9

i,=

i 1, 2 , as i and

( ct +1 , dt +1 , xt +1 ) , conditional on st=

+1

the variance-covariance matrix as , where

c ,i

i = d ,i

x ,i

(5)

and

c2

= 0

0

d2

0

0 .

1

(6)

The investor assigns probability pt that the economy is in the first regime at date t:

pt prob ( st =

1| ( t ) ) .

(7)

The joint probability density function of ut +1 , conditional on the information available at time t, is

g ( ut +1 | ( t ) )

=

T

T

1

1 f ( pt )

1

exp ( ut +1 1 ) 1 ( ut +1 1 ) +

exp ( ut +1 2 ) 1 ( ut +1 2 ) ,

3/2

2

( 2 ) | |

2

||

f ( pt )

( 2 )

3/2

(8)

where f ( pt ) is the probability that the investor assigns that the state in the next period t+1 is the expansion

state, conditional on pt :

f ( pt ) prob ( st +1 =

1| ( t ) )

=

prob ( st +1 =

1| st =

1) prob ( st =

1| ( t ) ) + prob ( st +1 =

1| st =

2 ) prob ( st =

2 | (t ))

= 1 pt + (1 2 )(1 pt )

(9)

=

1 2 + ( 1 + 2 1) pt .

Conditional on ( ct +1 , xt +1 , ( t ) ) , the value of pt +1 is updated via Bayes rule as

( ct +1 c ,1 )

xt2+1

2

f ( pt ) e

pt +1 | ( ct +1 , xt +1 , ( t ) ) =

,

2 c g ( ct +1 , xt +1 | ( t ) )

2 c2

(10)

10

time t. Therefore the conditional expectation of pt +1 is f ( pt ) :

E pt +1 | ( t )

=

pt +1 | ( ct +1 , xt +1 , ( t ) ) g ( ct +1 , xt +1 | ( t ) ) d ct +1dxt +1

=

f ( pt ) e

c ,1

= f ( pt )

( ct +1 c ,1 )

2 c2

xt2+1

2

g ( ct +1 , xt +1 | ( t ) )

= f ( pt )

( ct +1 c ,1 )

2 c2

2 c

g ( ct +1 , xt +1 | ( t ) ) d ct +1dxt +1

(11)

xt2+1

2

d ct +1dxt +1

p=

1 2

.

2 1 2

(12)

Our model nests the version typically assumed in the literature where investors learn from the

consumption history alone: setting = 0 results in the latter specification. We estimate the main model,

featuring learning from both consumption growth and signal histories, and the alternative model, featuring

learning from the consumption history alone. Note that the main model has just one additional parameter,

, compared to the alternative model.

The investor has recursive preferences as in Epstein and Zin (1989) and Weil (1990)

11/

1

Ut =

+ Et (U t +1 )

(1 )( Ct )

11/

1

1/ (11/ )

where is the subjective discount factor, is the RRA coefficient, is the EIS, and

(13)

1

. As

1 1 /

shown in Epstein and Zin (1989), the stochastic discount factor (SDF) is

C

SDFt +1 = t +1

Ct

Rc,t +11 ,

(14)

where Rc ,t +1 is the return on the wealth portfolio, a portfolio that pays dividend each period equal to aggregate

consumption.

11

3.2

Model Solution

We solve the model numerically through value function iteration. The highly nonlinear solutions for

equilibrium asset pricesincluding the market-wide price-dividend ratio and the conditional mean and

volatility of the market return obtained in Section 5.4highlight the importance of eschewing the Campbell

and Shiller (1988) log-linearization or any other form of approximation in solving the model.

We numerically calculate the wealth-consumption ratio, z ( pt ) Pt / Ct , as a function of pt as

follows. The Euler equation for the consumption claim is

Ct +1

1

=

Pc ,t E

Rc ,t +1 ( Pc ,t +1 + Ct +1 ) | pt .

Ct

(15)

Pc ,t

C

= E t +1

Ct

Ct

Pc ,t +1 + Ct +1

Pc ,t

Pc ,t +1 Ct +1

+ 1

| pt

Ct +1

Ct

or

Pc ,t

Pc ,t +1

C

t +1

=

+ 1 | pt

C

C

C

t

t

t +1

C

= t +1

Ct

(16)

Pc ,t +1

+ 1 g ( ct +1 , xt +1 | ( t ) ) d ( ct +1 ) dxt +1.

C

t +1

(1) We initially set z ( p=

) 30 p .

(2) We set Pc ,t +1 / Ct +1 = z ( pt +1 ) .

(3) For each value of pt , we draw ( ct +1 , xt +1 ) from the distribution g ( ct +1 , xt +1 | ( t ) ) N times and

calculate the left-hand side of equation (16), Pc ,t / Ct , as the conditional expectation on the right-hand

side of equation (16).

(4) We consider a grid of values of pt and repeat step (3) to obtain an updated function for the priceconsumption ratio, z ( p ) = Pc ,t / Ct as a function of p.

(5) We repeat steps (2)-(4) until the function z ( p ) converges.

12

Pc ,t +1 + Ct +1 Pc ,t +1 Ct +1 Ct

z ( p ) + 1 Ct +1

Rc ,t +1 =

=

+ 1

= t +1

Pc ,t

z ( pt ) Ct

Ct +1

Ct Pc ,t

(17)

and is a known function of pt , pt +1 , and Ct +1 / Ct . Therefore the SDF in equation (14) becomes a known

function of pt , pt +1 , and Ct +1 / Ct .

The risk-free rate is obtained by numerically integrating the Euler equation

1

=

R f ,t

C

Ct +t 1

+ 1

z ( pt +1 ) + 1

z ( pt )

g ( ct +1 , xt +1 | ( t ) ) d ( ct +1 ) dxt +1 .

(18)

We calculate the unconditional mean, variance, and auto-correlation of the risk-free rate and the correlation

of the risk-free rate and consumption growth via simulation.

We follow a similar procedure to numerically calculate the equilibrium price-dividend ratio, zM ( pt )

and, therefore, the unconditional mean, variance, and auto-correlation of the price-dividend ratio, the

correlation of the price-dividend ratio and consumption growth, and the unconditional mean, variance, and

auto-correlation of the market return. Finally we obtain the conditional mean, volatility, and Sharpe ratio of

the market return as a function of pt . We repeat all of the above numerical procedures in the alternative

model where the investors information set is only the consumption history.

For our main empirical results, we use US annual data over the entire available sample period from 1929 to 2013.

The starting date of 1929 is dictated by the availability of annual data on per capita consumption of nondurables and services. The asset menu consists of the market return and the risk-free rate. Our market proxy is

the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) value-weighted index of all stocks on the NYSE, AMEX,

and NASDAQ. The proxy for the real risk-free rate is obtained as follows: the quarterly nominal yield on threemonth Treasury bills is deflated using the realized growth in the Consumer Price Index to obtain the ex-post

real three-month Treasury-bill rate. The ex-ante quarterly risk-free rate is then obtained as the fitted value from

the regression of the ex-post three-month Treasury-bill rate on the three-month nominal yield and the realized

growth in the Consumer Price Index over the previous year. The ex-ante quarterly risk-free rate at the beginning

of the year is annualized to obtain the ex-ante annual risk-free rate. The equity premium is the difference in

average log returns on the market and the risk-free rate.

13

Also used in the empirical analysis are the price-dividend ratio and dividend growth rate of the market

portfolio. These two time-series are computed using the monthly returns with and without dividends on the

market portfolio obtained from the CRSP files. The monthly dividend payments within a year are added to

obtain the annual aggregate dividend, i.e., we do not reinvest dividends either in T-bills or in the stock market.

The annual price-dividend ratio is computed as the ratio of the price at the end of each calendar year to the

annual aggregate dividends paid out during that year.

The consumption data consists of the per capita personal consumption expenditure on nondurable goods

and services obtained from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. All nominal quantities are converted to real, using

the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

We obtain panel data over 1964-2011 on 106 macroeconomic variables from Ludvigsons web site,

based on the Global Insights Basic Economics Database and The Conference Boards Indicators Database.

The variables cover six broad categories of macroeconomic data: output, labor market, housing sector, orders

and inventories, money and credit, and price levels. We refer the reader to Ludvigsons website for a detailed

description of these variables. Many of the macroeconomic time series are revised ex post. Gilbert (2016)

argues that the market understands the subsequent revisions but revisions still matter.

As a robustness test we repeat our empirical analysis using a longer dataset from 1890 to 2009, obtained

from Shillers website. The return on the S&P composite index is used as a proxy for the market return. The

available proxy for the risk-free rate is the prime commercial paper rate. This proxy overestimates the risk-free

rate and, therefore, underestimates the equity premium. Since the Federal Reserve Board discontinued the 6month commercial paper rate series in August 1997, the 6-month Certificate of Deposit rate (secondary market)

is used thereafter. Consumption refers to the per capita total personal consumption expenditures. All nominal

quantities are converted to real using the CPI. We refer the reader to Shillers website for a detailed description

of the data.

5.1

Estimation Methodology

The main model has twelve parameters: two parameters of the regime transition matrix ( 1 and 2 ); one

parameter of the signal distribution ( ); six parameters of the time-series processes of aggregate consumption

and dividend growth ( c ,1 , c ,2 , d ,1 , d ,2 , c , and d ); and three preference parameters ( , , and ). We

estimate the parameters using GMM to match the following seventeen sample moments: the unconditional mean,

14

variance, and first-order autocorrelation of consumption growth, dividend growth, market return, market-wide

price-dividend ratio, and risk-free rate; the correlation between consumption and dividend growth rates; and the

correlation between the consumption growth rate and the price-dividend ratio. Therefore, we have an overidentified system of seventeen moment restrictions and twelve parameters. The weighting matrix used in the

estimation is a diagonal matrix with unit entries corresponding to all the moments except for weights of 100

on the following eight moments: The mean and standard deviation of the risk-free rate; the mean of the market

return; the mean and standard deviation of the price-dividend ratio; the auto-correlation of dividend growth; the

standard deviation of consumption growth; and the correlation between consumption growth and the pricedividend ratio. The parameter estimates and model fit remain largely unchanged if the efficient weighting

matrix is used instead; these results are available from the authors upon request.

5.2

Estimation Results in the Main Model (learning from both the consumption and signal histories)

In the first two panels of Table 1 we display the sample moments and the model-generated moments of the

consumption and dividend growth rates, market return, risk-free rate, and market-wide price-dividend ratio.

In the Data row we report the moments computed from the data along with standard errors (Newey-West

(1987) corrected using two lags) in parentheses. In the Model row we present the model-generated moments

along with the 95% confidence intervals in square brackets. The model-generated moments are calculated

analytically whenever analytical solutions are available and from a single long simulation of length one million

otherwise. T h e 95% confidence intervals are obtained from 10,000 simulations of eighty-four years each, the

same size as the historical sample.

[Table 1 here]

The model does a good job in matching the unconditional first and second moments of the aggregate

consumption growth: the unconditional mean, volatility, and first-order autocorrelation of consumption growth

are 0.019, 0.022, and 0.475, respectively, in the data, while their model-implied values are 0.008, 0.033, and

0.020, respectively. Note that the model underestimates the first-order autocorrelation of

consumption growth. Although the first-order autocorrelation of consumption growth is quite high in the

data at 0.475, this is potentially an artifact driven by temporal aggregation. This view is further supported by

the following two observations. First, the first-order autocorrelation of consumption growth is quite sensitive

to the precise sample period and the measure of consumption used. It takes the value 0.48 over the 1929 to

2013 sample period when nondurables and services consumption is used as the measure of consumption

expenditures, while it is close to zero over the longer 1890 to 2009 period where total consumption is the

measure of consumption expenditures. Second, even though the first-order autocorrelation of consumption

15

growth is high over the 1929 to 2013 period, the higher-order autocorrelations drop to zero quickly: the

second-, third-, and fifth-order autocorrelations are 0.18, -0.06, and -0.009, respectively. Models that feature

a first-order autocorrelation of consumption growth comparable to its sample counterpart typically imply

higher-order autocorrelations much higher than those observed in the data. Our parameter estimates, on the

other hand, imply higher-order autocorrelations close to their sample counterparts.

The unconditional mean, volatility, and first-order autocorrelation for the dividend growth rate are

0.012, 0.113, and 0.183, respectively, in the data and 0.009, 0.172, and 0.200, respectively, in the model. The

model does a good job in matching these moments, albeit somewhat overestimating the volatility of dividends.2

The correlation between the consumption and dividend growth rates is 0.567 in the data and is higher than the

model-implied value of 0.070. Note that this correlation is difficult to measure precisely and is sensitive to small

changes in timing and time aggregation. The correlation between the consumption growth rate and the pricedividend ratio is 0.135 in the data and is close to the model-implied value of 0.148.

In the second panel of Table 1 the model-implied mean risk-free rate is 0.007, consistent with the

sample value of 0.005. The model-implied volatility of the risk-free rate is lower than the value in the data

and the autocorrelation is higher than in the data.

The model-implied mean equity return is 0.047, close to the sample value of 0.061. The modelimplied volatility of the market return is 0.281, slightly higher than the value of 0.200 in the data.

The autocorrelation of the market return is essentially zero both in the data and the model.

The model-implied mean, volatility, and autocorrelation of the price-dividend ratio are

3.400, 0.521, and 0.912, respectively, in excellent agreement with the values of 3.393, 0.455, and

0.862, respectively, in the data.

Overall the model rationalizes the high mean market return, t he volatility of the market return, and

the low mean risk-free rate observed in the data. Therefore it offers an explanation of the equity premium and

risk-free rate puzzles. It also matches well the mean and, more importantly, the volatility of the market-wide

price-dividend ratio, thereby accounting for the excess volatility puzzle. To summarize, the model fits well the

moments of consumption and dividend growth and returns, and does so without requiring implausible dynamics

of the consumption and dividend growth processes.

In the bottom panel of Table 1 we display the point estimates of the parameters, along with the

associated standard errors (Newey-West (1987) corrected using two lags) in parentheses. The point estimates

of the coefficient of RRA, 14.5, and the EIS, 0.649, suggest preference for early resolution of uncertainty. The EIS

2

A large literature in corporate finance discusses motives for dividend smoothing. Therefore, overstating the volatility of dividend

growth and, consequently, that of the market return should not necessarily be viewed as a shortcoming of the model.

16

is substantially lower than is typically required in models with recursive preferences. For example, in the Bansal

and Yaron (2004) long-run risks model, the calibrated value of the RRA coefficient is 10 and of the EIS is 1.5; and

in the Nakamura, Steinsson, Barro, and Ursua (2013) rare disasters model, the calibrated value of the RRA

coefficient is 6.5 and of the EIS is 2.0.

The point estimates of the transition probabilities imply that the first regime has longer duration

than the second one. The point estimates of the transition probabilities also strongly suggest the existence of

at least two regimes, since 1 is very different from 1 2 . The consumption and dividend growth rates have

higher mean in the first regime than in the second one. Therefore we identify the first regime as the regime

of economic expansion, with higher mean of consumption and dividend growth rates and longer duration

than the second regime.

Recall that the signal has volatility equal to one in both regimes and mean zero in the first regime by

construction. The estimated mean of the signal is 6.07 in the second regime. This demonstrates that the signal is

very informative as it is drawn from two very different distributions in the two regimes. Also, the signal is highly

persistent with a first-order autocorrelation coefficient of 0.78. At first sight, it may seem puzzling that the signal

has persistence that is an order of magnitude higher than that of consumption growth (0.78 versus 0.02), despite

both of them being driven by the same underlying state st . However, closer look reveals that, for given values of

the transition probabilities, the first-order autocorrelation coefficient of each of these variables is increasing in the

ratio of the squared difference between the means in the two states to the constant variance, y ,1 y ,2

/ y2 .

For the consumption growth, this ratio is 0.14, while for the signal x this ratio is two orders of magnitude bigger at

36.8. This explains the substantially higher persistence of the signal compared to that of the consumption growth

rate. We argue, in Section 5.4, that this feature of the signal plays a key role in generating the asset pricing results.

We repeat the empirical analysis using a longer dataset from 1890 to 2009 obtained from Shillers

website. The results are displayed in Table 2. The model does a good job in matching the unconditional mean and

volatility of aggregate consumption and dividend growth rates. The correlation between the consumption and

dividend growth rates is 0.45 in the data and is higher than the model-implied value of 0.08. Note that, as argued

earlier, this correlation is difficult to measure precisely and is sensitive to small changes in timing and time

aggregation. The correlation between the consumption growth rate and the price-dividend ratio is close to the

model-implied value.

[Table 2 here]

In the second panel of Table 2 the model-implied mean risk-free rate is 0.019, consistent with the

sample value of 0.018. The model-implied volatility of the risk-free rate is lower than the value in the data

17

and the autocorrelation is higher than in the data. The model-implied mean equity return is 0.051, close to the

sample value of 0.058. The model-implied volatility of the market return is slightly higher than in the

data. The autocorrelation of the market return is essentially zero both in the data and the model.

The model-implied mean, volatility, and autocorrelation of the price-dividend ratio are close to their

sample values. In the bottom panel of Table 2 we display the point estimates of the parameters, along with

the associated standard errors (Newey-West (1987) corrected using two lags) in parentheses. The point estimates

of the coefficient of RRA and the EIS are very similar to the values estimated in Table 1.

Overall the results from 1890 to 2009 in Table 2 are strikingly similar to the results estimated over the

very different time period from 1929 to 2013 in Table 1 and demonstrate that the results are robust.

5.3

Estimation Results in the Alternative Model (learning only from consumption history)

In the previous section we estimated the model when the investor learns both from the consumption history and

the signal. In this section we re-estimate the model when the investor learns from the consumption history alone.

The results are reported in Table 3.

[Table 3 here]

The model fails along a number of dimensions. First the model-implied mean equity return is merely

1%. Along with a model-implied average risk-free rate of 0.6%, this implies an equity premium of less than 1%,

in stark contrast to the 5.6% premium observed in the data. Thus the model fails to account for the equity

premium puzzle. Second the volatility of the price-dividend ratio is essentially zero, at odds with the high

volatility of 0.455 observed in the data. The flat price-dividend ratio causes the volatility of the market return to

equal the volatility of the dividend growth rate, contrary to the observed high volatility of the market return

relative to dividend growth. Thus the model fails to explain the excess volatility puzzle. The model-implied

mean dividend growth is negative at -1.6%, contrary to its sample counterpart of 1.2% and the model-implied

mean consumption growth of 0.03% is two orders of magnitude smaller than its sample counterpart. Finally the

model implies much higher correlation between the consumption growth rate and the innovation in the risk-free

rate than that observed in the data (0.54 versus -0.01). These results demonstrate that the alternative model

simply does not fit the data. The shortcomings of this model have earlier been highlighted in Johannes,

Lochstoer, and Mou (2016) and our results confirm their findings.

18

5.4

In Section 5.2 we showed that the main model fits the data well while the alternative model fails to explain

the equity premium and the excess volatility puzzles. The success of the main model is a particularly strong

result because the model has only one additional parameter, the mean of the signal x in the second regime,

, compared to the alternative model. (Recall that the mean of x is set equal to zero in the first regime and

its volatility is set equal to one in both regimes.) The question then arises as to what drives the superior

performance of the main model.

The crux of the intuition lies in the response of the price-dividend ratio to changes in beliefs, pt , and,

therefore, to changing expectations about future returns and dividend growth. In the main model, the belief

process has high persistence and low variance, while in the alternative model the belief process has low

persistence and high variance. In the main model the current value of pt is highly informative about the

future and, therefore, the price-dividend ratio responds sharply to changes in pt . This makes the pricedividend ratio highly volatile in this model. By contrast, in the alternative model, the current value of pt

provides little information about the future and, therefore, the price-dividend ratio is essentially constant.

Below, we elaborate on this intuition.

In figure 2 we illustrate the conditional variance of the beliefs, var ( pt +1 | pt ) , as a function of pt in

the main model (red line). The estimates of the transition probabilities for the main model are much higher

at 0.98 and 0.93, respectively, compared to 0.74 and 0.76, respectively, for the alternative model. If pt = 0,

0=

we have E [ pt +1 | p=

] 0.07 , var ( pt +1 | p=t 0 ) 0.06 , and, therefore, pt +1 is close to 0 with a fair degree

t

of certainty. In other words, the investor is able to effectively forecast the regime in the next period given

the current period realizations of consumption growth and the signal. A similar argument holds when pt = 1;

in fact, in this case E [ pt +1 | pt ] = 0.98 and the conditional variance of pt +1 is even closer to zero than when

pt = 0 and, therefore, pt +1 is close to 1 with an even greater degree of certainty. In contrast, when pt = 0.5

pt 0.5 ) 0.25 and it is difficult for the investor to forecast the regime next period. To

we have var ( pt +1 |=

summarize, there is a lot of uncertainty about the future when pt is around 0.5 but not when pt is near its

boundaries of 0 or 1. This implies that the investor has a strong precautionary savings motive around pt = 0.5

that declines as pt approaches its boundaries. This generates non-linearities in the equilibrium solutions for

the price-dividend ratio, the expected market return, and the conditional variance of the market return.

[Figure 2 here]

19

Note that, in the main model, the investors beliefs are a function of consumption growth and the

signal. Although consumption growth has low persistence the signal has high persistence. In particular the

parameter estimates in Table 1 imply a first-order autocorrelation coefficient of 0.78 for the signal,

substantially higher than the model-implied autocorrelation of only 0.02 for consumption growth. This

suggests that the signal is related to macroeconomic variables that have substantially higher persistence than

consumption growth. 3 Therefore pt has higher persistence in this case compared to when it is a function of

consumption growth alone. Indeed, based on the parameter estimates in Table 1, pt has a first-order autocorrelation coefficient of 0.91 in the main model compared to 0.49 in the alternative model (Table 3).

Therefore the equilibrium price-dividend ratio, that is a function of pt alone, has higher persistence in the

main model that matches up more closely with the data. The above features of the learning process also

explain why the price-dividend ratio is highly volatile in the main model. The price-dividend ratio moves in

response to changing expectations about future returns and future dividend growth. In the main model the

current realization of pt is informative about the future and, therefore, the price-dividend ratio is very

responsive to changes in pt .

The above results stand in stark contrast to the alternative model. In figure 2 we also illustrate the

conditional variance of the beliefs, var ( pt +1 | pt ) , as a function of pt in the alternative model (blue line).

The conditional variance is an inverted U-shaped function of pt as in the main model but, unlike the main

model, it has a value higher than 0.14 throughout. When the variance is 0.14 the conditional volatility is 0.37

and the 95% confidence interval for the distribution of ( pt +1 | pt = 0 ) covers almost the entire permissible

region. This means that the investor observes the realization of Ct and accurately infers the regime at date t

because c ,1 = 0.027 is very different from c ,2 = 0.024 and the volatility of consumption growth is low at

0.017. However because of the low persistence of the regimes (driven by the low persistence of consumption

growth) this provides little information as to which regime the economy will be in next period. Thus there is

a lot of uncertainty about the regime next period although there is low uncertainty about the current regime.

Once Ct +1 is realized the investor accurately updates her beliefs regarding the regime. This implies that pt

has low persistence and high variance.

Note also that the model-implied first-order autocorrelation coefficient of the signal is not implausibly high. The macro variables

most highly correlated with the market-wide price-dividend ratio, namely the rate of inflation and the change in average hourly

earnings of production in private nonfarm payrolls have autocorrelation coefficients of 0.78 and 0.90, respectively, and are,

therefore, potential sources of the signal.

20

The above feature of the learning process explains why the price-dividend ratio is flat in the

alternative model. The price-dividend ratio moves in response to changing expectations about future returns

and future dividend growth. The current realization of pt provides little information about the future and,

therefore, the price-dividend ratio is unresponsive to changes in pt . To help improve the performance of the

model, Johannes, Lochstoer, and Mou (2016) introduce model and parameter uncertainty. Even though the

investor learns from consumption alone, model and parameter uncertainty slows down the learning process

and imparts higher persistence in pt compared to the persistence of consumption growth and this improves

the model fit to the data.

In figure 3 we display the wealth-consumption ratio as a function of the probability of the economic

expansion state, pt , in the main model (red line) and the alternative model (blue line). The wealthconsumption ratio is decreasing in the state probability in both models because the income effect dominates

the substitution effect. This is because the EIS (that governs the strength of the income effect) is substantially

smaller than unity and the loading of expected consumption growth on pt (that determines the strength of

the substitution effect) is small in both models: the coefficient of pt in E [ ct +1 | pt ] is 0.011 in the main

model, using the point estimates in Table 1; and the coefficient of pt in E [ ct +1 | pt ] is 0.025 in the

alternative model, using the point estimates in Table 3.

[Figure 3 here]

In figure 4 we plot the risk-free rate as a function of the probability of the expansion state in the main

model (red line) and in the alternative model (blue line). In the alternative model the risk-free rate is (almost)

linearly increasing in the probability of the expansion state pt . Similarly, in the main model, the risk-free

rate is also low during recessions, consistent with the empirical evidence, and mostly increasing in the

probability of the expansion state. However the risk-free rate is a nonlinear function of the probability in this

model and, for very high values of pt , is decreasing in pt . The latter feature of the model obtains because,

when the probability is very high, the substitution effect for the dividend claim is very strong (because the

mean of the dividend growth rate is very different in the two regimes and the transition probabilities are very

high). Therefore, investors buy this asset rather than borrowing against the future to smooth consumption.

This does not happen in the alternative model because the income effect always dominates the substitution

effect in this model (because the mean of dividend growth is less different between the two regimes and the

transition probabilities are lower than those in the main model).

[Figure 4 here]

21

In figure 5 we display the price-dividend ratio as a function of the probability of the economic

expansion state, pt , in the main model (red line) and the alternative model (blue line). In the main model the

price-dividend ratio is increasing and convex in the probability of the expansion state (red line). This

nonlinearity justifies our approach of eschewing the Campbell and Shiller (1988) log-linearization or any

other form of approximation in solving the model. Note that, in the main model the price-dividend ratio is

increasing in the probability pt while the price-consumption ratio is decreasing in pt . This is because,

although the income effect dominates the substitution effect in the case of the price-consumption ratio, the

substitution effect dominates the income effect for the price-dividend ratio. The increased strength of the

substitution effect in the latter case is driven by the loading of expected dividend growth on pt , 0.2, which

is an order of magnitude higher than the loading of expected consumption growth on pt , 0.01. By contrast,

in the alternative model the price-dividend ratio is (almost) flat in the probability of the expansion state (blue

line) because the current beliefs are not very informative about the future. The latter model is, therefore,

unable to generate the observed volatility of the price-dividend ratio.

[Figure 5 here]

In figure 6 we display the expected market return as a function of the probability of the expansion

state. The alternative model implies that the price-dividend ratio is almost constant over time. The expected

dividend growth is an increasing function of pt . Therefore the expected market return is an increasing

function of pt (blue line), leading to the counterfactual prediction of a procyclical expected market return. In

the main model, on the other hand, when pt 0.5 there is maximum uncertainty about the current regime.

The estimates of the preference parameters suggest a strong preference for early resolution of uncertainty.

Therefore the expected market return is at its highest around this point (red line). As pt increases from 0.5

towards 1 there is less uncertainty that the economy is in the good regime. Therefore the expected market

return is decreasing in pt over this range. A more formal way of stating this is that, over this range of pt , an

increase in pt causes a sharp increase in the price-dividend ratio and this has the effect of decreasing the

expected return that dominates the increase in the expected return arising from the increase in the expected

dividend growth and the increase in expected future price-dividend ratio due to the rise in pt .

[Figure 6 here]

The situation is more complicated for pt between 0 and 0.5. As pt increases over this range, there

are two competing forces. On the one hand there is more uncertainty about the regime that causes the

expected market return to increase; and, on the other hand, there is a lower probability of being in the second

22

regime and this causes the expected market return to decrease. The former effect dominates because of the

strong preference for early resolution of uncertainty, causing the expected market return to increases with an

increase in pt over this range. A more formal way of stating this is that, over this range of pt , an increase

in pt causes a less sharp increase in the price-dividend ratio (the function is less convex over this range) and

this has the effect of decreasing the expected return that is dominated by the increase in the expected return

arising from the increase in the expected dividend growth and the increase in expected price-dividend ratio

due to the rise in pt .

In figure 7 we display the conditional variance of the market return in both models. The conditional

variance of the market return depends on the conditional variance of the price-dividend ratio and dividend

growth. The conditional variance of both of these variables depend on the conditional variance of pt +1 . Now

the conditional variance of pt +1 is an inverted U-shaped function of pt being the highest when pt 0.5

and declining when pt approaches its boundaries of 0 or 1.

[Figure 7 here]

Consider first the alternative model. In this case the price-dividend ratio is almost constant and,

therefore, the conditional variance of the market return is driven only by the conditional variance of dividend

growth. The latter is small to be consistent with the data and so the conditional variance of the market return

is small and almost flat (blue line).

Consider next the main model. When pt 0.5 there is maximum uncertainty about the current regime

and the conditional variance of pt is at its peak. In this model, the price-dividend ratio responds sharply to

changes in pt . Therefore the conditional variance of the future price-dividend ratio is also at its peak at

around pt 0.5 . As the conditional variance of pt +1 declines when pt approaches its boundaries of 0 or 1,

so does the conditional variance of the future price-dividend ratio. This explains the inverted U-shape of the

conditional variance of the market return.

The Sharpe ratio is a measure of the market price of risk and empirical evidence suggests that it is

strongly countercyclical. In figure 8 we display the Sharpe ratio in both models as a function of pt . Contrary

to the data, the alternative model implies that the Sharpe ratio is small on average and not very responsive to

the regime probability. On the other hand the main model implies that the Sharpe ratio is an inverted Ushaped function of pt . The Sharpe ratio sharply increases as pt increases from 0 to about 0.5 because of

increased uncertainty about the future; it remains relatively flat in the range (0.5, 0.75) of pt because the

23

uncertainty about the future is the highest over this range; and it decreases sharply with further increases in

pt because of a sharp decline in the uncertainty about the future for very high values of pt .

[Figure 8 here]

To summarize, the main model, unlike the alternative model, generates strong time-variation in the

conditional mean and variance and, therefore, in the conditional Sharpe ratio of the stock market return. And it

does so without relying on heteroscedasticity of the aggregate consumption and dividend growth ratesa

phenomenon for which there is limited empirical evidence.

In Section 2 we showed that, regardless of the specification of the information set that the investor uses to

form her beliefs, equilibrium prices are functions of these beliefs. In particular, in the alternative model, the

price-dividend ratio is essentially constant, while the risk-free rate is a linearly increasing in pt . In the main

model, on the other hand, the price-dividend ratio and risk-free rate are both non-linearly increasing in pt .

Therefore we may invert the expressions for the price-dividend ratio and risk-free rate to extract the investors

beliefs on a year-by-year basis. This is a particularly convenient way to extract the beliefs, especially in the

main model, since we do not observe the information set of the investor and, therefore, do not know the

identity of the signal xt . Since pt is a known function of xt (equation (10)), the time series of xt may also be

obtained.

In figure 9 we present the time series of the beliefs, pt , extracted from the observed price-dividend

ratio and risk-free rate for the alternative model (blue line) as well as the main model (red line). 4 Also shown

in the figure are the NBER-dated recession periods as shaded rectangles and the major stock market downturns

in the twentieth century identified in Barro and Ursua (2012) as black-dashed vertical lines.

[Figure 9 here]

In panel A of Table 4 we report the sample mean and volatility, along with the associated asymptotic

standard errors in parentheses, of the consumption and dividend growth rates, price-dividend ratio, risk-free

rate, and market return for the main model in three subperiods. Specifically we present these summary statistics

for the five years over the period from 1930 to 2013 in which the probability that the economy is in the first regime

Note that, in each year t, we have a system of two equations (one for the price-dividend ratio and one for the risk-free rate) in

one unknown, pt . We extract pt by minimizing a weighted non-linear least squares criterion function. The weighting matrix used

is a diagonal matrix with the diagonal entries equal to the inverse of the variances of the price-dividend ratio and the risk-free rate.

24

pt is below 20%, for the 21 years in which pt is between 20% and 80%, and for the 58 years in which pt

exceeds 80%. We also display the corresponding model-implied moments along with their 95% confidence

intervals. The model-implied moments are computed from a single simulation of length one million years. The 95%

confidence intervals for the model-implied moments are obtained from 10,000 simulations, each of length 84

years (equal to the length of the historical sample). We split the sample into three subsamples to examine

whether the nonlinearities implied by the main modelin particular, the non-monotonicity of the expected

market return and its conditional variance in the beliefs pt are supported by the data. Note that, given the

small size of these subsamples, particularly the first one, the standard errors are large and differences in the

point estimates across the three subsamples are often statistically insignificant.

[Table 4 here]

Consistent with the predictions of the main model, the data implies that the mean market return is

highest when 0.2 < pt < 0.8 and declines when pt < 0.2 or pt > 0.8 ; the volatility of the market return is

highest when 0.2 < pt < 0.8 and declines when pt < 0.2 or pt > 0.8 ; the mean price-dividend ratio is

monotonically increasing in pt ; the mean risk-free rate is monotonically increasing in pt ; and the mean

consumption and dividend growth rates are higher when pt > 0.8 compared to when pt < 0.2 and their

volatilities are similar across these periods. These results lend strong support to the economic mechanism

highlighted in the main model.

In panel B of Table 4 we report the corresponding statistics for the alternative model. The predictions of

this model are contrary to the data along several dimensions. The mean market return is monotonically declining

in pt in the data contrary to the monotonically increasing function implied by the model. In other words, the

model predicts a procyclical expected market return, at odds with the strongly countercyclical pattern observed

in the data. The model fails to account for the strongly countercyclical volatility of the market return observed

in the data. It predicts that the volatility of the market return is very similar across the three subsamples (13.9%,

14.4%, and 13.9%, respectively). The mean price-dividend ratio is monotonically increasing in pt in the data

contrary to the flat function implied by the model. The mean consumption and dividend growth rates are

monotonically declining in pt in the data contrary to the monotonically increasing functions implied by the

model. These results further demonstrate that the alternative model does not fit the data.

Predictive Regressions

25

We further assess the empirical plausibility of the main and the alternative models with predictive regressions

for the consumption growth, dividend growth and market return. Both models imply that the expected

consumption and dividend growth rates are linearly increasing in the beliefs. However the models differ in

their implications on the expected market return: the alternative model implies that the expected market return

is linearly increasing in the beliefs, while the main model implies that the expected market return is an inverted

U-shaped function of the beliefs.

In Table 5 we present the results of the predictive regressions for both models. In panel A, we present

the results for the main model. The time series of the beliefs, pt , is extracted from the observed price-dividend

ratio and risk-free rate as described in Section 6. In panel B we report the corresponding results obtained from

a single long simulation of the model of length one million years.

[Table 5 here]

The main model predicts that the expected consumption and dividend growth rates are linearly

increasing in pt . Consistent with the model, the coefficient of pt in the predictive regression for consumption

growth is positive but statistically insignificant. However, note that, the coefficient implied by the model,

0.011, is within the one standard error interval of the coefficient 0.015 obtained in the data. Moreover, the R 2

of the regression is 3.3% in the data, close to its model-implied value of 1.9%. For the dividend growth

forecasting regression, the coefficient of pt is positive and statistically significant. Also the coefficient

implied by the model is within the one standard error interval of the value obtained in the data. The R 2 of the

regression is 9.3% in the data, smaller than its model-implied value of 18.1%.

As shown in figure 5 the model implies that the expected market return is first increasing and then

decreasing in pt . Therefore we include pt2 as an additional regressor in the predictive regression for the

market return. Consistent with the model, the coefficient of pt is positive and the coefficient of pt2 is negative.

The R 2 is small at 2.0% in the data, consistent with its model-implied value of 0.1%.

In results available from the authors upon request, we also show that the model generates the low

predictive power of the price-dividend ratio for the one-year ahead as well as long horizon consumption

growth rates, consistent with the data. This stands in stark contrast with the long-run risks model of Bansal

and Yaron (2004) that implies an order of magnitude higher R 2 in forecasting regressions of the one-year and

three-year ahead consumption growth rates and two orders of magnitude higher R 2 in a forecasting regression

of the five-year ahead consumption growth rate on the price-dividend ratio (see, e.g., Beeler and Campbell

(2012)). The superior performance of our main model is rendered possible because it does not rely on the

26

persistence of consumption growth to generate key asset pricing results, relying instead on the persistence of

the additional macro variables in the information set.

In panels C and D of Table 5 we present the results corresponding to panels A and B, respectively, but

for the alternative model. All regression coefficients have the wrong signthe coefficients on pt for the

consumption growth and dividend growth forecasting regressions are both negative and even statistically

significant in the latter case, contrary to the implications of the model; for the market return forecasting

regression, the coefficient on pt is negative and that on pt2 is positive, contrary to the predictions of the

model. These findings further demonstrate that this model does not fit the data.

We provide further evidence in support of the main model by setting the signal equal to a particular

macroeconomic variable or combination of macroeconomic variables that have high correlation with the

market-wide price-dividend ratio. Unlike the main model in which the signal is left unspecified, in the first

example, we constrain the signal to equal the change in CPI for all urban consumers (CPI-U). Thus equation

(4) that describes the dynamics of the signal is replaced by the following equation:

CPI t +1 = CPI , st +1 + CPI CPI ,t +1 ,

(19)

where CPI t +1 is the change in CPI over one year and CPI ,t +1 is i.i.d. standard normal and orthogonal to

c ,t +1 and d ,t +1 . Equation (19) has three parameters, CPI ,1 , CPI ,2 , and CPI , which is two more parameters

than that in equation (4) in which we set x ,1 = 0 and = 1 . However the CPI dynamics now have to match

four additional moment restrictions, the mean, variance, and first-order autocorrelation of inflation growth

and the correlation between the price-dividend ratio and inflation growth.

The estimation results are presented in Table 6. Even though the signal is forced to be the CPI growth

instead of being left unspecified and there are two more overidentifying restrictions in the estimation, the

model does almost as well in matching the data as the main model does. In the first panel we see that the

model matches the moments of consumption and dividend growth as well as the main model does (in Table

1). The autocorrelation of consumption growth and the correlation between consumption and dividend

growth are lower than those in the data.

In the second panel the model matches well the moments of the risk-free rate, market return, and

price-dividend ratio, with one exception: the model produces expected market return which is 2% lower than

27

in the data. Recall that the main model (in Table 1) also produces expected market return which is 1.4%

lower than that in the data.

In the third panel the model matches well the volatility of CPI growth and the correlation between

CPI growth and the price dividend ratio, but lesser so the mean and autocorrelation of CPI growth. In the

fourth panel, the estimated RRA is almost identical to the estimate in the main model but the IES is 1.9 which

is higher than in the main model. The other parameter estimates are reasonable. In particular, the two regimes

are very persistent with persistence comparable to the persistence of the regimes when the signal is left

unspecified in Tables 1 and 2. Overall, the model retains its good empirical fit when the signal is constrained

to equal CPI growth.

[Table 6 here]

In addition to assessing the model fit for the unconditional moments of consumption and dividend

growth rates and returns, when the signal is constrained to be an observable variable, such as the change in

the CPI, we can compute the correlation between the historically observed price-dividend ratio and that

implied by the model. This is because the model-implied price-dividend ratio is a known function of the

investors beliefs, which in turn is a known function of the history of the consumption growth and the change

in the CPI. Therefore the time series of the consumption growth and the change in the CPI can be used to

obtain the time series of the model-implied price-dividend ratio. Using the parameter estimates in Table 6,

the model-implied time series of the price-dividend ratio has a correlation of 0.69 with the price-dividend

ratio observed in the data. The alternative model, on the other hand, produces a correlation of zero between

the model-implied and historical price-dividend ratios. This is because the model-implied price-dividend

ratio is an almost flat function of the beliefs in the alternative model.

Finally, we provide further evidence in favor of the risk channel highlighted in our model. The rate

of inflation is chosen as a potential signal because of its high correlation with the market-wide price-dividend

ratio. If innovations to the inflation process drive variations in the price-dividend ratio due to the mechanism

highlighted in the model, then the innovations to the inflation process should also forecast future cash flow

growth. We confirm that this is indeed the case. In particular the rate of inflation forecasts one-year ahead

dividend growth with a statistically significant slope coefficient of -0.76 and 2 = 7.8% in the historical

sample. The corresponding model-implied values of the slope coefficient and 2 , obtained from a single long

simulation of length one million, are close to their data counterparts at -0.63 and 9.4%, respectively.

Formally, the simulated 95% confidence intervals of the slope coefficient and 2 , obtained from 10,000

simulations of length equal to the historical sample, contain the respective sample values. Moreover, not only

does the rate of inflation forecast the one-year ahead dividend growth, but it forecasts longer horizon growth

28

rates as well: it forecasts the two-year ahead dividend growth with a statistically significant slope of -1.29

and 2 = 8.8%, and the three-year ahead dividend growth with a statistically significant slope of -1.52 and

2 = 8.1%. As with the one-year ahead dividend growth, the model-implied values of these statisticsslope

of -1.22 and 2 = 13.7% for the two-year dividend growth, and slope of -1.76 and 2 = 15.9% for the

three-year dividend growthare close to their data counterparts. This lends further support to the central

insight highlighted in the model.

As a second example, we set the signal equal to the change in the average hourly earnings of

production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls in the manufacturing sector ( EAR )

and as a third example, we set the signal equal to the second principal component of changes in the

macroeconomic variables ( MACRO ) . Both signals are highly correlated with the market-wide price-dividend

ratio. The results are presented in Tables 7 and 8 and are strikingly similar to the results in Table 6.

[Tables 7 and 8 here]

Recall that the target of our paper is to highlight the pivotal role of expanding the information set of

the investor beyond the consumption history in addressing several seemingly puzzling aspects of asset market

data. In this section we show that CPI growth, average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory

employees on private nonfarm payrolls in the manufacturing sector, and the second principal component of

changes in macroeconomic variables are major, but not necessarily, exclusive components of the set of

signals that affect the level of market prices and returns.

Concluding Remarks

The market-wide price-dividend ratio is strongly correlated with two groups of macroeconomic variables,

price variables including the rate of change in the CPI and PPI and labor market variables including the

average hourly earnings, average hours, and number of employees in different sectors. However the pricedividend ratio has very small correlation with the aggregate consumption growth, the one variable that

investors are assumed to learn from in an extensive literature on learning in financial markets. This suggests

that the poor empirical performance of these learning models may potentially be explained by the stringent

information set imposed on investors, namely the assumption that they learn from the history of consumption

alone. In this paper we explore the role of expanding the information set of investors in explaining several

stylized facts of stock market data.

29

We present a model of a real exchange economy with learning about the state of the economy from

the consumption history and a latent signal. Overall, the model rationalizes the high mean market return,

t h e volatility of the market return, and the low mean risk-free rate observed in the data. Therefore it offers an

explanation of the equity premium and risk-free rate puzzles. It also matches the mean and, more importantly,

the volatility of the market-wide price-dividend ratio, thereby accounting for the excess volatility puzzle. Finally

it is also consistent with the low predictive power of the price-dividend ratio for future consumption growth. The

signal allows the investor to update her beliefs regarding the probability on whether the economy is in an

expansion or recession state. The model demonstrates that the market rationally processes macroeconomic

information in forming beliefs and setting prices.

We re-estimate a nested version of the model in which the investor learns from the consumption history

alone, a specification commonly used in the literature. The model fails to address the equity premium puzzle

and the observed high volatility of the market return relative to dividend growth. It significantly understates the

volatility of the price-dividend ratio. It also performs poorly in predictive regressions.

Our analysis highlights the pivotal role of expanding the information set of the investor in addressing

several seemingly puzzling aspects of asset market data. In particular we show that CPI growth, average

hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls in the

manufacturing sector, and the second principal component of changes in macroeconomic variables are major,

but not necessarily, exclusive components of the set of signals that affect the level of market prices and

returns.

30

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33

The table reports estimation results and model fit for the main model using annual data over the entire available sample period 1929-2013. The

parameters are estimated using GMM. Seventeen moment restrictions are used in the GMM, namely the mean, variance, and first-order autocovariance of the consumption and dividend growth rates, market return, risk-free rate and the market-wide price-dividend ratio, the covariance

between consumption and dividend growth, and the covariance between consumption growth and the price-dividend ratio. The number of

parameters to be estimated is twelve. Panel C presents the parameter estimates along with asymptotic standard errors in parentheses. The standard

errors are Newey-West (1987) corrected using two lags. Panels A and B present the sample moments (with standard errors in parentheses below)

and the corresponding model-implied moments (with simulated 95% confidence intervals in square brackets below) for the consumption and

dividend growth rates (Panel A) and asset prices and returns (Panel B). The confidence intervals are obtained as the 5th and 95th percentiles from

10,000 simulations of the same length as the historical sample.

Data

Model

Data

Model

E [ c ]

( c )

AC1( c )

.019

(.003)

.008

[-.001

,.016]

.022

(.004)

.033

[.028,

.038]

.475

(.149)

.020

[-.207

,.218]

E [ d ]

( d )

AC1( d )

corr ( c, d )

corr ( c, p / d )

.012

(.013)

.009

[-.087

,.071]

.113

(.019)

.172

[.135,

.199]

.183

(.208)

.200

[-.159

,.402]

.567

(.133)

.070

[-.172,

.278]

.135

(.156)

.143

[-.126,

.347]

Prices

E rf

( rf )

AC1( rf )

E [ rm ]

( rm )

AC1( rm )

E[ p / d]

(p / d)

AC1( p / d )

.005

(.005)

.007

[-.001,

.011]

.030

(.005)

.008

[.000,

.009]

.672

(.121)

.911

[-.032,

.955]

.061

(.019)

.047

[-.022,

.104]

.200

(.018)

.281

[.150,

.417]

.009

(.217)

-.002

[-.271,

.181]

3.393

(.080)

3.400

[2.802,

3.664]

.455

(.049)

.521

[.000,

.649]

.862

(.054)

.912

[-.031,

.955]

14.503

(.0000)

.649

(.0001)

.990

(.0007)

Parameter Estimates

1

.982

(.0019)

.930

(.0006)

-6.067

(.0038)

c,1

c,2

d,1

d,2

.010

(.0033)

-.002

(.0011)

.050

(.0002)

-.148

(.0007)

.032

(.0004)

.152

(.0002)

34

The table reports estimation results and model fit for the main model using Shillers annual data over the entire available sample period 18902009. The parameters are estimated using GMM. Seventeen moment restrictions are used in the GMM, namely the mean, variance, and firstorder auto-covariance of the consumption and dividend growth rates, market return, risk-free rate and the market-wide price-dividend ratio, the

covariance between consumption and dividend growth, and the covariance between consumption growth and the price-dividend ratio. The

number of parameters to be estimated is twelve. Panel C presents the parameter estimates along with asymptotic standard errors in parentheses.

The standard errors are Newey-West (1987) corrected using two lags. Panels A and B present the sample moments (with standard errors in

parentheses below) and the corresponding model-implied moments (with simulated 95% confidence intervals in square brackets below) for the

consumption and dividend growth rates (Panel A) and asset prices and returns (Panel B). The confidence intervals are obtained as the 5th and 95th

percentiles from 10,000 simulations of the same length as the historical sample.

Data

Model

Data

Model

E [ c ]

( c )

AC1( c )

E [ d ]

( d )

AC1( d )

corr ( c, d )

corr ( c, p / d )

.020

(.003)

.005

[-.001,

.014]

.035

(.003)

.040

[.034,

.044]

-.063

(.219)

.029

[-.166,

.194]

.011

(.011)

.005

[-.091,

.087]

.116

(.015)

.196

[.163,

.217]

.182

(.172)

.201

[-.089,

.350]

.450

(.084)

.081

[-.122,

.244]

.160

(.081)

.178

[-.057,

.330]

Prices

E rf

( rf )

AC1( rf )

E [ rm ]

( rm )

AC1( rm )

E[ p / d]

(p / d)

AC1( p / d )

.018

(.006)

.019

[.009,

.027]

.051

(.006)

.010

[.000,

.010]

.426

(.135)

.951

[-.009,

.973]

.058

(.016)

.051

[-.013,

.127]

.180

(.013)

.260

[.184,

.336]

.020

(.172)

.042

[-.162,

.195]

3.235

(.063)

2.998

[2.513,

3.450]

.424

(.050)

.508

[.000,

.513]

.865

(.055)

.951

[-.009,

.973]

Parameter Estimates

1

14.646

(.0000)

.768

(.0000)

.974

(.0000)

.977

(.0001)

.967

(.0000)

-7.804

(.0000)

c,1

c,2

d,1

d,2

.010

(.0000)

-.004

(.0000)

.081

(.0000)

-.102

(.0000)

.039

(.0000)

.174

(.0000)

35

Table 3: Model Fit and Parameter Estimates in the Alternative Model, Annual Data 1929-2013

The table reports estimation results and model fit for the alternative model using annual data over the entire available sample period 1929-2013.

The parameters are estimated using GMM. Seventeen moment restrictions are used in the GMM, namely the mean, variance, and first-order

auto-covariance of the consumption and dividend growth rates, market return, risk-free rate and the market-wide price-dividend ratio, the

covariance between consumption and dividend growth, and the covariance between consumption growth and the price-dividend ratio. The

number of parameters to be estimated is eleven. Panel C presents the parameter estimates along with asymptotic standard errors in parentheses.

The standard errors are Newey-West (1987) corrected using two lags. Panels A and B present the sample moments (with standard errors in

parentheses below) and the corresponding model-implied moments (with simulated 95% confidence intervals in square brackets below) for the

consumption and dividend growth rates (Panel A) and asset prices and returns (Panel B). The confidence intervals are obtained as the 5th and 95th

percentiles from 10,000 simulations of the same length as the historical sample.

Data

Model

Data

Model

E [ c ]

( c )

AC1( c )

E [ d ]

( d )

AC1( d )

corr ( c, d )

corr ( c, p / d )

.019

(.003)

.000

[-.010,

.011]

.022

(.004)

.031

[.027,

.034]

.475

(.149)

.348

[.121,

.507]

.012

(.013)

-.016

[-.049,

.017]

.113

(.019)

.141

[.119,

.162]

.183

(.208)

.054

[-.178,

.250]

.567

(.133)

.273

[.067,

.452]

.135

(.156)

-.888

[-.921,

-.842]

Prices

E rf

( rf )

AC1( rf )

E [ rm ]

( rm )

AC1( rm )

E[ p / d]

(p / d)

AC1( p / d )

.005

(.005)

.006

[-.001,

.013]

.030

(.005)

.019

[.017,

.020]

.672

(.121)

.500

[.284,

.655]

.061

(.019)

.011

[-.023,

.043]

.200

(.018)

.142

[.119,

.162]

.009

(.217)

.060

[-.177,

.252]

3.393

(.080)

3.620

[3.619,

3.621]

.455

(.049)

.002

[.002,

.002]

.862

(.054)

.473

[.255,

.635]

11.064

(.000)

c,1

.027

(.066)

.556

(.003)

Parameter Estimates

1

.981

.740

(.002)

(.030)

2

.762

(.005)

c,2

-.024

(.057)

d,1

.033

(.030)

c

.017

(.022)

d,2

-.060

(.016)

d

.133

(.059)

36

The table presents the sample means and volatilities (along with standard errors in parentheses) and the corresponding model-implied moments

(along with simulated 95% confidence intervals in square brackets) of the consumption and dividend growth rates, market-wide price-dividend

ratio, risk-free rate, and the market return in three subsamples. The subsamples correspond to time periods when the probability of being in the

first regime, , is smaller than 0.2, lies between 0.2 and 0.8, and is larger than 0.8, respectively. The time series of is recovered from the

observed time series of the price-dividend ratio and risk-free rate period-by-period using a least squares criterion. Panel A presents the results

for the main model, while Panel B does for the same for the alternative model. The standard errors are Newey-West corrected using two lags.

The 95% confidence intervals are obtained as the 5th and 95th percentiles from 10,000 simulations of the same length as the historical sample.

pt < 0.2

Data

c

d

p/d

rf

rm,t+

1

Model

Mea

n

Volatilit

y

.018

(.011)

.027

(.003)

-.028

(.041)

.127

(.021)

2.794

(.058)

.158

(.023)

-.074

(.009)

.031

(.005)

.111

(.019)

.113

(.016)

Mean

-.002

[-.024,

.019]

-.153

[-.253,

-.048]

2.372

[2.372

,

2.374]

-.008

[-.008,

-.008]

.036

[-.075,

1.108]

Volatilit

y

.033

[.015,

.046]

.151

[.073,

.219]

.001

[.000,

.010]

.0001

[.0000,

.0004]

.394

[.138,

.932]

pt < 0.2

Data

c

d

p/d

rf

rm,t+

1

Mea

n

Volatilit

y

.022

(.005)

.022

(.003)

.031

(.033)

.158

(.035)

3.238

(.142)

.473

(.065)

-.029

(.006)

.028

(.031)

.103

(.030)

.184

(.038)

Model

Mean

-.028

[-.032,

-.023]

-.055

[-.100,

-.016]

3.622

[3.622

,

3.623]

-.013

[-.013,

-.012]

-.009

[-.054,

.035]

Volatilit

y

.014

[.011,

.018]

.134

[.104,

.165]

.0005

[.0004,

.0006]

.001

[.001,

.002]

.139

[.107,

.171]

0.2 < pt < 0.8

Data

Model

Mea

n

Volatilit

y

.013

(.008)

.031

(.008)

.012

(.031)

.129

(.033)

2.921

(.047)

0.200

(.040)

.007

(.008)

.028

(.004)

.126

(.046)

.223

(.043)

Mean

-.002

[-.055,

.074]

-.058

[-.394,

.294]

2.745

[2.494

,

3.121]

.004

[-.002,

.013]

.730

[-.809,

1.322]

Volatilit

y

.025

[.004,

.046]

.156

[.015,

.314]

.251

[.011,

.386]

.006

[.000,

.010]

.574

[.051,

1.182]

pt > 0.8

Data

Volatilit

y

.021

(.002)

.016

(.003)

.016

(.012)

.107

(.025)

3.615

(.045)

.349

(.023)

.012

(.003)

.019

(.002)

.039

(.023)

.189

(.019)

0.2 < pt < 0.8

Data

Model

Mea

n

Volatilit

y

.020

(.003)

.014

(.002)

.018

(.014)

.067

(.012)

3.439

(.086)

.323

(.044)

.007

(.001)

.007

(.000)

.052

(.035)

.181

(.025)

Mean

.002

[-.003,

.007]

-.019

[-.114,

.088]

3.619

[3.618

,

3.620]

.005

[-.001,

.010]

.015

[-.088,

.114]

Volatilit

y

.007

[.003,

.010]

.138

[.064,

.216]

.001

[.001,

.001]

.008

[.004,

.010]

.144

[.064,

.216]

Model

Mea

n

Mean

.011

[.002,

.019]

.050

[.011,

.088]

3.664

[3.660

,

3.664]

.011

[.011,

.011]

.047

[-.046,

.098]

Volatilit

y

.032

[.027,

.038]

.150

[.125,

.179]

.009

[.000,

.030]

.0001

[.0000,

.0004]

.246

[.136,

.419]

pt > 0.8

Data

Mea

n

Volatilit

y

.014

(.007)

.028

(.007)

-.010

(.024)

.110

(.031)

3.473

(.159)

.544

(.089)

.034

(.003)

.014

(.002)

.051

(.046)

.224

(.037)

Model

Mean

.031

[.026,

.036]

.031

[-.016,

.076]

3.618

[3.618

,

3.618]

.027

[.026,

.028]

.036

[-.015,

.079]

Volatilit

y

.014

[.011,

.018]

.136

[.102,

.166]

.0003

[.0002,

.0005]

.002

[.001,

.003]

.139

[.106,

.173]

37

The table presents model-implied predictive regressions for the aggregate consumption growth, dividend growth and market return.

The model implies that the expected aggregate consumption and dividend growth rates are linear functions of the probability of

being in the first regime , while the expected market return is a highly nonlinear function of . Panels A and B present results

for the main model, while Panels C and D present results for the alternative model.

Main Model

Panel A: Data

c

Panel B: Model

c

rm

-.001**

[-.147,

.167]

.011***

[-.156,

.159]

-.132***

[-.727.

.853]

.175***

[-.804,

.772]

.044***

[-.090,

1.256]

1.952***

[-6.574,

5.244]

-1.952***

[-5.267,

6.393]

.019

[.000,.105]

.181

[.000,.356]

.001

[.012,.314]

rm

Intercept

.007

(.008)

-.097**

(.040)

.101

(.093)

Lag p

.015

(.009)

.137***

(.047)

.124

(.335)

-.191

(.283)

Lag p2

E[rm|p]

R2

.033

.093

.020

Alternative Model

Panel C: Data

c

d

rm

Intercept

.024***

(.004)

-.050**

(.021)

.105***

(.055)

Lag p

-.009

(.006)

-.069**

(.033)

-.172

(.221)

Panel D: Model

d

-.012***

[-.020,

-.001]

.026***

[.010,

.038]

-.036***

[-.079,

.009]

.045***

[-.023,

.111]

-.011***

[-.059,

.038]

.053***

[-.380,

.479]

-.005

[-.428,

.423]

.143

[.023,.031]

.021

[.000,.118]

.024

[.002,.140]

.124

(.215)

Lag p2

rm

E[rm|p]

R2

.025

.052

.013

38

Table 6: Model Fit and Parameter Estimates Using the Change in CPI as the Signal, Annual Data

1964-2013

The table reports estimation results and model fit for the main model, when the signal x is set to equal the change in the CPI for all urban consumers

(CPI-U), using annual data over the entire available sample period 1929-2013. The parameters are estimated using GMM. Twenty-one moment

restrictions are used in the GMM, namely the mean, variance, and first-order autocovariance of the consumption and dividend growth rates, the

rate of inflation, market return, risk-free rate and the market-wide price-dividend ratio, the covariance between consumption and dividend growth,

the covariance between consumption growth and the price-dividend ratio, and the covariance between the rate of inflation and the price-dividend

ratio. The number of parameters to be estimated is fourteen. Panel C presents the parameter estimates along with asymptotic standard errors in

parentheses. The standard errors are Newey-West (1987) corrected using two lags. Panels A and B present the sample moments (with standard

errors in parentheses below) and the corresponding model-implied moments (with simulated 95% confidence intervals in square brackets below)

for the consumption and dividend growth rates (Panel A) and asset prices and returns (Panel B). The confidence intervals are obtained as the 5th

and 95th percentiles from 10,000 simulations of the same length as the historical sample.

Data

Model

Data

Model

E [ c ]

( c )

AC1( c )

E [ d ]

( d )

AC1( d )

corr ( c, d )

corr ( c, p / d )

.020

(.002)

.012

[.006

,.016]

.013

(.002)

.015

[.012,

.018]

.513

(.161)

.025

[-.280

,.272]

.016

(.012)

.020

[-.056

,.055]

.072

(.010)

.081

[.056,

.101]

.269

(.187)

.274

[-.252

,.533]

.253

(.171)

.090

[-.248,

.357]

-.046

(.147)

.179

[-.127,

.440]

Prices

E rf

( rf )

AC1( rf )

E [ rm ]

( rm )

AC1( rm )

E[ p / d]

(p / d)

AC1( p / d )

.014

(.004)

.015

[.013,

.016]

.019

(.002)

.002

[.000,

.003]

.680

(.136)

.604

[-.078,

.802]

.056

(.023)

.037

[-.031,

.075]

.179

(.022)

.203

[.072,

.344]

-.013

(.271)

.010

[-.464,

.401]

3.617

(.095)

4.235

[3.478,

4.436]

.401

(.047)

.450

[.022,

.656]

.891

(.064)

.918

[-.074,

.943]

Data

Model

14.233

(.0000)

d,1

.038

(.0263)

1.908

(.0000)

d,2

-.087

(.0070)

E [ CPI ]

( CPI )

AC1( CPI )

.041

(.006)

.019

[.002,.061]

.027

(.005)

.039

[.026,.050]

.778

(.115)

.347

[-.259,.593]

-.675

(.064)

-.676

[-.820,-.455]

.989

(.0014)

CPI ,1

.009

(.0064)

Parameter Estimates

1

2

.989

.935

(.0027)

(.0054)

CPI ,2

c

.078

.015

(.0132)

(.0027)

c,1

.013

(.0034)

d

.068

(.0001)

c,2

.005

(.0031)

CPI

.031

(.0052)

39

Table 7: Model Fit and Parameter Estimates Using the Change in Hourly Earnings as the Signal,

Annual Data 1964-2013

The table reports estimation results and model fit for the main model, when the signal x is set to equal the change in average hourly earnings of

production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls in the manufacturing sector ( EAR ) , using annual data over the entire

available sample period 1929-2013. The parameters are estimated using GMM. Twenty-one moment restrictions are used in the GMM, namely the

mean, variance, and first-order auto-covariance of the consumption and dividend growth rates, the change in the average hourly earnings, market

return, risk-free rate and the market-wide price-dividend ratio, the covariance between consumption and dividend growth, the covariance between

consumption growth and the price-dividend ratio, and the covariance between the change in the average hourly earnings and the price-dividend

ratio. The number of parameters to be estimated is fourteen. Panel C presents the parameter estimates along with asymptotic standard errors in

parentheses. The standard errors are Newey-West (1987) corrected using two lags. Panels A and B present the sample moments (with standard

errors in parentheses below) and the corresponding model-implied moments (with simulated 95% confidence intervals in square brackets below)

for the consumption and dividend growth rates (Panel A) and asset prices and returns (Panel B). The confidence intervals are obtained as the 5th

and 95th percentiles from 10,000 simulations of the same length as the historical sample.

Data

Model

Data

Model

E [ c ]

( c )

AC1( c )

E [ d ]

( d )

AC1( d )

corr ( c, d )

corr ( c, p / d )

.020

(.002)

.011

[.005

,.017]

.013

(.002)

.017

[.013,

.020]

.513

(.161)

.022

[-.282

,.261]

.016

(.012)

.010

[-.083

,.050]

.072

(.010)

.092

[.065,

.112]

.269

(.187)

.261

[-.248

,.496]

.253

(.171)

.081

[-.250,

.336]

-.046

(.147)

.164

[-.141,

.409]

Prices

E rf

( rf )

AC1( rf )

E [ rm ]

( rm )

AC1( rm )

E[ p / d]

(p / d)

AC1( p / d )

.014

(.004)

.014

[.012,

.015]

.019

(.002)

.002

[.001,

.003]

.680

(.136)

.510

[-.077,

.735]

.056

(.023)

.041

[-.028,

.080]

.179

(.022)

.199

[.083,

.334]

-.013

(.271)

.004

[-.456,

.397]

3.617

(.095)

3.656

[2.725,

3.881]

.401

(.047)

.471

[.025,

.645]

.891

(.064)

.930

[-.073,

.947]

Data

Model

14.517

(.0000)

d,1

.032

(.0271)

1.980

(.0000)

d,2

-.097

(.0074)

E [ EAR ]

( EAR )

AC1( EAR )

.042

(.006)

.021

[.003,.066]

.024

(.005)

.037

[.024,.046]

.902

(.115)

.386

[-.254,.609]

-.642

(.064)

-.696

[-.819,-.457]

.989

(.0027)

EAR ,1

.010

(.0081)

Parameter Estimates

1

2

.990

.950

(.0051)

(.0052)

EAR ,2

c

.074

.017

(.0136)

(.0064)

c,1

.013

(.0046)

d

.068

(.0005)

c,2

.006

(.0032)

EAR

.029

(.0051)

40

Table 8: Model Fit and Parameter Estimates Using the Second Principal Component of Changes in

Macroeconomic Variables as the Signal, Annual Data 1966-2011

The table reports estimation results and model fit for the main model, when the signal x is set to equal the second principal component of changes

in macroeconomic variables ( MACRO ) over the period 1966-2011. The parameters are estimated using GMM. Twenty-one moment restrictions

are used in the GMM, namely the mean, variance, and first-order auto-covariance of the consumption and dividend growth rates, the change in the

average hourly earnings, market return, risk-free rate and the market-wide price-dividend ratio, the covariance between consumption and dividend

growth, the covariance between consumption growth and the price-dividend ratio, and the covariance between the change in the average hourly

earnings and the price-dividend ratio. The number of parameters to be estimated is fourteen. Panel C presents the parameter estimates along with

asymptotic standard errors in parentheses. The standard errors are Newey-West (1987) corrected using two lags. Panels A and B present the sample

moments (with standard errors in parentheses below) and the corresponding model-implied moments (with simulated 95% confidence intervals in

square brackets below) for the consumption and dividend growth rates (Panel A) and asset prices and returns (Panel B). The confidence intervals

are obtained as the 5th and 95th percentiles from 10,000 simulations of the same length as the historical sample.

Data

Model

Data

Model

E [ c ]

( c )

AC1( c )

E [ d ]

( d )

AC1( d )

corr ( c, d )

corr ( c, p / d )

.019

(.002)

.008

[.002

,.013]

.013

(.002)

.014

[.011,

.017]

.450

(.181)

.032

[-.295

,.269]

.010

(.011)

.007

[-.072

,.060]

.067

(.010)

.092

[.063,

.105]

.270

(.197)

.280

[-.265

,.443]

.323

(.139)

.098

[-.263,

.333]

-.021

(.156)

.182

[-.200,

.406]

Prices

E rf

( rf )

AC1( rf )

E [ rm ]

( rm )

AC1( rm )

E[ p / d]

(p / d)

AC1( p / d )

.015

(.004)

.016

[.014,

.017]

.018

(.002)

.002

[.000,

.002]

.639

(.150)

.518

[-.108,

.835]

.046

(.025)

.037

[-.027,

.088]

.183

(.023)

.194

[.070,

.345]

-.018

(.281)

.007

[-.459,

.394]

3.610

(.102)

3.742

[2.822,

4.225]

.415

(.048)

.656

[.005,

.698]

.896

(.064)

.966

[-.096,

.967]

E [ MACRO ]

Data

.000

(.231)

-.044

[-2.728,1.528]

Model

( MACRO )

AC1( MACRO )

1.011

(.153)

2.195

[1.010,2.435]

.758

(.120)

.662

[-.258,.726]

.703

(.065)

.843

[.414,.886]

Parameter Estimates

1

c,1

c,2

14.119

(.0000)

1.751

(.0000)

.989

(.0093)

.988

(.0240)

.978

(.0439)

.010

(.0173)

d,1

d,2

MACRO ,1

MACRO ,2

.005

(.0165)

MACRO

.043

(.1048)

-.060

(.1939)

1.296

(.0658)

-2.504

(.2045)

.014

(.1211)

.077

(.0208)

1.232

(.4931)

41

Figure 1: The R 2 in univariate regressions of the time series of the price-dividend ratio on each of the 106

macroeconomic variables over the 1964-2011 sample period.

42

Figure 2: The conditional variance of the beliefs, var ( pt +1 | pt ) , as a function of the beliefs in the main model (red

line) and the alternative model (blue line). The conditional variance is computed using the point estimates of the model

parameters in Table 1 for the main model and in Table 3 for the alternative model. The sample is annual over the

entire available sample period 1929-2013.

43

Figure 3: The equilibrium wealth-consumption ratio as a function of the beliefs in the main model (red line) and the

alternative model (blue line), computed using the point estimates of the model parameters in Table 1 for the main

model and in Table 3 for the alternative model. The sample is annual over the entire available sample period 19292013.

44

Figure 4: The equilibrium risk-free rate as a function of the beliefs in the main model (red line) and the alternative

model (blue line), computed using the point estimates of the model parameters in Table 1 for the main model and in

Table 3 for the alternative model. The sample is annual over the entire available sample period 1929-2013.

45

Figure 5: The equilibrium price-dividend ratio as a function of the beliefs in the main model (red line) and the

alternative model (blue line), computed using the point estimates of the model parameters in Table 1 for the main

model and in Table 3 for the alternative model. The sample is annual over the entire available sample period 19292013.

46

Figure 6: The equilibrium expected market return as a function of the beliefs in the main model (red line) and the

alternative model (blue line), computed using the point estimates of the model parameters in Table 1 for the main

model and in Table 3 for the alternative model. The sample is annual over the entire available sample period 19292013.

47

Figure 7: The conditional variance of the market return as a function of the beliefs in the main model (red line) and

the alternative model (blue line), computed using the point estimates of the model parameters in Table 1 for the main

model and in Table 3 for the alternative model. The sample is annual over the entire available sample period 19292013.

48

Figure 8: The conditional Sharpe ratio as a function of the beliefs in the main model (red line) and the alternative

model (blue line), computed using the point estimates of the model parameters in Table 1 for the main model and in

Table 3 for the alternative model. The sample is annual over the entire available sample period 1929-2013.

49

Figure 9: The time series of the beliefs, pt , extracted from the observed price-dividend ratio and risk-free rate, using

the point estimates of the model parameters in Table 1 for the main model (red line) and in Table 3 for the alternative

model (blue line). The sample is annual over the entire available sample period 1929-2013.

50

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