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2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.

11

Visualizing
Success
Using Positive Risk Diagrams to
Achieve Business Objectives

The PowerPoint Show of this presentation is available upon request.

It started with disaster

Piper Alpha platform The North Sea


1988

and ended in success


Satellite View

Zoom 300%

Full View
T&E product
development and
marketing
Director of T&E

RPQ phase 2
delivery
Business
Leader for T&E

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2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

with a revolutionary method for


managers
consultants and
entrepreneurs

to analyse and achieve all business objectives


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2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

by overcoming uncertainty with simplicity


VISUALIZING
UNCERTAINTY
NEGATIVE OR DOWNSIDE RISK
Modelling bad events
Minimising negative outcomes
Cause

Cause

RESISTANCE
Bad
Event

Cause

POSITIVE OR UPSIDE RISK


Modelling good events
Maximising positive outcomes
Effect

Condition

Effect

Condition

Effect

Condition

Bowtie Diagram

MOMENTUM
Good
Event

Benefit

Benefit

Benefit

Moar Diagram

The theory and origins of these diagrams will be explained in the following pages
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2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

You will now be shown a new, free and highly


effective business improvement tool, currently known
as the New Method of positive risk modelling.

It requires only 10 minutes to learn, yet within hours the


Method will have transformed your organisations ability to
analyse, communicate and achieve all of its key objectives.
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2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

Manage a small project


using a single diagram

Risk environment
descriptor
Risk Environment
Owner

Goal or target
descriptor
Goal Owner

T&E product
development and
marketing
Director of T&E

RPQ phase 2
delivery
Business
Leader for T&E

Comprehensively visualize any objective


Condition for
delivery

Condition for
delivery

Condition for
delivery

Benefit

Project
Delivery

Benefit

Disbenefit

Initiate and scope a project

Update
management
in seconds

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

The PowerPoint Show of this presentation is available upon request.

You will discover how to:

ENDORSEMENTS
VP Enterprise Risk at a major West
Coast USA university: Wonderful
Visualizing Success presentation
on LinkedIn!! May I please have a
copy of the presentation to share
with some of my Administration
and Finance colleagues?

Since launch in 2015

Principal Consultant at RPS


Energy:
I really enjoyed reading your
very informative and well
thought out presentation.
Thanks very much for sharing
this in a public forum.

Head of Business Solutions and Engagement


Management Services for a major UK
consultancy: As someone who has spent his
entire PM career always balancing the upside of
risk mgmt with the traditional down side mgmt
...it was refreshing to see someone with exactly
the same thought process but having described
it in such a structured and methodical way.

MD of Business Intelligence at a
large American healthcare company:
we are starting a consulting
practice to help our clients manage
their critical functions better. I have
been trying to envision a means of
communicating what you call positive
risk in a simple paradigm and believe
you have done a masterful job.

Head of Strategic Development at the UK's leading


consumer rights organisation:
I recently came across your visualising success document
online and was very impressed. I think that this could be
something that I could use in time (assuming I could get
internal stakeholders across the idea).

WARNING!
words ahead
You are about to view a presentation containing intuitive
diagrams and graphics. It also contains just enough words
to present a basic theory with supporting evidence.

If you dislike wordy presentations this could be a good time


to
, although your patience may be rewarded.
2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11
The PowerPoint Show of this presentation is available upon request.

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

GLOSSARY

The following pages introduce


some new and unfamiliar terms

positive risk

a management perspective focusing upon the uncertainty of desired outcomes

New Method

a quick and simple process for creating positive risk models

Moar Diagram

the graphical representation of a positive risk model: the visualization of success

Satellite View

the high level representation of a Moar Diagram, designed for senior management

ECRM

Event Centred Risk Modelling: a new paradigm offering two vital management tools

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

Designing Success
The New Method creates simple, data-rich models of goal-focused activities,
such as business strategies, project delivery and the pursuit of targets.
The graphical presentation
of these models, known as
Moar Diagrams, increase
the probabilities of success
by capturing the whole
upside environment,
enabling real-time
management and
communication of plans,
actions, risks and progress.

Migrating all Group


offices to the same
finance system
(Maconomy)
Finance Director

Subsidiary
Company
migrated to
Maconomy
successfully
IT Manager

A slightly larger version of this diagram is shown in a


later slide. For greater clarity, download the PDF file
or request the PowerPoint Show from the author.

Moar Diagrams illustrate the solutions to


two fundamental business problems:
1. How to navigate successfully towards
goals or targets and
2. How to maximise the benefits we expect
those goals and targets to deliver.
Paradoxically, the origins of this technique may be traced back to one
of the worlds worst industrial accidents, more than 25 years ago.
2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

ISO 31000 (the international risk management standard)


defines risk as the effect of uncertainty on objectives.
Therefore, the probability of a risk event is always >0 and
<1 (because probabilities of zero and one are both
certainties).
So the probability of a risk event is always a positive number
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2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

The Theory

The Theory

Now consider the classic risk equation:

Risk = Probability x Outcome


If probability is always a positive number, Risk
must be negative when the outcome is negative.
This is the traditional domain of risk management.
So Risk will become positive if the outcome is positive.
Presumably, these are the outcomes we want. If so, how
do we achieve and maximise these positive outcomes?
2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

The Theory

Traditional risk management


is focused upon negative
outcomes, such as financial
loss, technical failures and
human casualties the events
we try to avoid.

This is negative risk


(or downside risk)
2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

However, positive risk (or


upside risk) is concerned with
success, profits and victories
the events we want to
happen.

Is this something we can


understand better by modelling?

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

The Theory

Origins of the New Method


In response to the 1988 Piper
Alpha disaster, the oil industry
focused intensively upon the
management of negative risk.

Royal Dutch Shell developed


Bowtie diagrams into highly
effective analytical tools.
Bowtie diagrams are now used in most hazardous industries

Bowtie Diagrams: Core Components


The event we
need to avoid

The negative
consequences

Cause

Cause

Cause

Effect

Bad
Event

Effect

Controls

Risk is influenced by the current performance of controls: Good

Effect
Moderate

Poor

Controls are implemented to prevent the event or to mitigate its effects

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

Causes or
threats

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

Two of the many reasons why Bowtie diagrams have been successful:
1) The diagrams are both
convenient decision-making
tools and suitable for
sharing (without
modification) with nonspecialist stakeholders.

Key learning
from the
Bowtie
method:

2) Controls deployed after


an event (i.e. for mitigation
or recovery purposes) are
given the same visibility as
those deployed for the
events prevention.

The probability of a bad event may be reduced by pro-active,


pre-emptive risk management. (This is well understood.)
More importantly, the occurrence of an event does not imply
the inevitability of its expected consequences. These
consequences are determined by post-event management.

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

So, Bowtie modelling is a proven method


for visualizing negative risk environments.

Visualizing Success
This presentation reveals how the Bowtie method has
been successfully adapted to visualize positive risk in
any commercial, organisational or personal context.
This transformation was undertaken in 2013-14 by
PJ Moar with assistance from professionals in the
business consulting and risk management sectors.
The PowerPoint Show of this presentation is available upon request.

Moar Diagrams: Core Components


The event we want
to happen (the goal)

The positive
outcomes
Benefit

Condition

Condition

Condition

Good
Event

Benefit

Benefit

Drivers

Risk is influenced by the current performance of drivers: Good

Moderate

Poor

Drivers enable progress towards the goal and benefit maximisation

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

The set of conditions


for achieving a goal

Positive and Negative Risk: The Key Differentiators


Negative risk management uses controls to avoid unwanted events or to mitigate their effects.
Controls are managed resources such as people, technologies, assets and procedures.
Positive risk management uses drivers to achieve desired events and to maximise their
benefits. Drivers are managed resources such as people, technologies, assets and procedures.
These two perspectives are compared in the table below:
Type of Modelling
Risk Event
Tool
Negative
(downside)
Positive
(upside)

Bowtie
method
New
Method

Visualization
Technique

Origins

Bowtie diagrams

1980s

Moar Diagrams

Satellite Views

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

Applicable Sectors
All - especially the
hazardous industries

All especially
corporate management
2013-14
and the management
consulting industry

Recommended
Software Tools
BowtieXP by CGE Risk
No commercial
products available

Contact the author for


prototype solutions

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

What is a Condition?
Each Condition is a high level sub-deliverable or
part-deliverable of the objective. Examples:

Condition
Infrastructure built
Funds secured
Marketing campaign designed

Condition
Typically between 2 and 8 Conditions are identified
in each model.

Condition
Each condition is necessary, but not sufficient to achieve the goal.
All conditions must be satisfied to ensure success.

Examples: 3 applications of the New Method


Some conditions
for achieving the goal

Goal, target or
project deliverable

Technical infrastructure implemented

Business
transition to
new finance
system

Users trained
All functionality tested successfully
Funds for acquisition secured
Target company selected
Agreement of the Board obtained
Warehouse stock optimised
Marketing campaign designed
Delivery logistics contracted

Acquire
company in
new market

Successful
launch of online
retail site

Drivers are located here

Some benefits from


achieving the goal
Report financial data in real time
Reduce errors
Enable 24x7 access for all users
Sell products via acquisitions brand
Reduce back-office costs
Halt advance of major competitor
Enable shift to global markets
Gain access to younger demographic
Improve shareholder confidence

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

What is a Driver?
A driver is any type of resource, capability,
process or action directed (by management)
towards achieving a specific objective.

The modeller uses


experience and
judgement to identify
and describe each driver

The following are all examples of drivers:


The application of a procedure
An internal or external communication
A documentation task

A technical solution
The analysis of data
A training programme

The PowerPoint Show of this presentation is available upon request.

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

Moar Diagram: full version including positive effectors and disbenefits


Condition

Risk environment
descriptor

Benefit

Condition

Goal

Benefit

Condition

Disbenefit
Positive
effector

Any factor likely to significantly support the


performance of a driver is known as a positive
effector (PE). Each PE is advanced by a driver.

If any significant negative consequences


(disbenefits) are identified, they are added
to the model and mitigated by controls.

Projects
Successful delivery is the goal

Subsequent benefits are expected

Initiating or Scoping Major Projects


SENIOR LEADERSHIP INTEREST
PROJECT MANAGER FOCUS

PROJECT SPONSOR FOCUS

THE PROJECT TASKS

THE BUSINESS CASE

Condition for
delivery

Condition for
delivery

Benefit

Project
Delivery

Benefit

Here, most drivers and controls are shown without


colour, indicating activities which have not started.

Disbenefit

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

Condition for
delivery

The Moar Diagram is a rapid and effective workshop


tool for project initiation and scoping.

Managing Small or Non-Complex Projects


SENIOR MANAGEMENT INTEREST
PROJECT MANAGER FOCUS

PROJECT SPONSOR FOCUS

THE PROJECT TASKS

THE BUSINESS CASE

Benefit

Condition for
delivery

Project
Delivery

Benefit

Condition for
delivery

Completed tasks are marked black.


Drivers scheduled to start in the future remain white.
Green indicates on-schedule and on-budget.

Disbenefit

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

Condition for
delivery

A small project may be managed using only the


diagram and shared in real-time
with other stakeholders.

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

A Project Management Revolution?

As illustrated in the
previous diagrams,
the business case
remains in focus
throughout the
project lifecycle.

Does this improved


visibility increase
the probability of
project success?

The PowerPoint Show of this presentation is available upon request.

From Theory to Practice


SYMBOLS
A necessary
condition

A positive
effector

An expected
benefit

An expected
disbenefit

COSTS

Risk
environment
descriptor

Goal or
target

The relative cost of a driver or


control is indicated by red bars.

Driver
descriptor

Control
descriptor

Low

Moderate

High

SIZE AND COLOUR INDICATORS


The theoretical or assumed effectiveness
of a driver/control is indicated by its width.

The current performance/status of a driver or control


(i.e. representing its uncertainty) is indicated by a colour.
Poor

Weak
Non-Essential

Moderate
Desirable

Strong
Essential

Moderate

Future Start

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

Good

Unknown

Completed Task

Diagram Exemplar
2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

This diagram contains at least one example of each component characteristic


Risk environment
descriptor
Risk Environment
Owner

Goal or target
descriptor
Goal Owner

All
ownership
is clearly assigned

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

Real-World Example:
A small business project
T&E product
development and
marketing

A single Moar Diagram


simultaneously
communicates the
objective, the scope,
the plan, business
benefits, costs, staff
responsibilities, current
progress and risks.

Director of T&E

RPQ phase 2
delivery
Business
Leader for T&E

For greater clarity, download the


PDF file or request the PowerPoint
Show from the author.

Another Real-World Example:


Migrating all Group
offices to the same
finance system
(Maconomy)
Finance Director

Project to achieve
the financial
integration of a
subsidiary business.

Regular maintenance of a single diagram is sufficient to keep a


small project on track and demonstrate progress to sponsors.
For greater clarity, download the PDF file or request the PowerPoint Show from the author.

Subsidiary
Company
migrated to
Maconomy
successfully
IT Manager

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

A small finance project

Theoretical Example:

This acquisition scenario


features some positive
effectors (grey symbols).
Many post-acquisition drivers
must remain dormant (white)
until the deal is signed and
confidentiality ends.
For greater clarity, download the PDF file or request the PowerPoint Show from the author.

Strategic
business growth
and development
Business Leader

Acquire target
company in new
geographical
market
Head of
Acquisitions

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

A Strategic Business Acquisition

DREAD THE RED

Red symbols are used to represent under-performance, negative


outcomes and costs. A preponderance of red should attract the attention
of management.
An expected
disbenefit

Underperforming
driver

Underperforming
control

A negative
outcome

High cost
controls and drivers

The PowerPoint Show of this presentation is available upon request.

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

Diagram colours and symbols have been designed to communicate the


status of a positive risk environment in seconds.

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11


The PowerPoint Show of this presentation is available upon request.

https://maildr.moar.com/owa

Satellite Views
for Senior Management
The Satellite View is a high level
representation of a Moar Diagram.
All text and non-essential detail is
excluded.

This enables the current status of a


risk environment (such as a project)
to be reviewed in seconds.

Software Options
This type of positive risk modelling is not
currently supported by a dedicated software
tool. However, an adapted version of
BowtieXP (by CGE) has been developed.

Risk environment
descriptor
Risk Environment
Owner

Goal or target
descriptor
Goal Owner

Contact the author for more information.


Software developers creating tools for the
New Method will receive free support and
advice from the author, upon request.
2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

Until software becomes available, try


using custom sticky notes or Excel

A New Method for

Visualizing Success

Click the document to view


and/or download a free guide to
the Method (via Slideshare)

For high quality diagrams use graphical tools, such as MS PowerPoint or Visio

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

Workshop Techniques
and Outputs

2015 PJ Moar
peter.moar@gmail.com
version 3.11

Event Centred Risk Modelling


VISUALIZING
UNCERTAINTY
NEGATIVE OR DOWNSIDE RISK
Modelling bad events
Minimising negative outcomes
Cause

Cause

RESISTANCE
Bad
Event

Cause

Bowtie Diagram

POSITIVE OR UPSIDE RISK


Modelling good events
Maximising positive outcomes
Effect

Condition

Effect

Condition

Effect

Condition

MOMENTUM
Good
Event

Benefit

Benefit

Benefit

Moar Diagram

The ECRM paradigm delivers two powerful management tools

ECRM models are sufficiently


versatile to be used in the
management of our own lives!

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

Personal
Models

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

SUMMARY
The New Method of positive risk modelling aims to maximise the probability of successful
outcomes in goal-focused environments.

Data acquired via the Method is visualized as Moar Diagrams.


Each Diagram identifies an objective and its expected benefits; it clarifies the ownership of
drivers and controls, using colours and shapes to highlight both costs and performance risk.

Satellite Views offer senior management an informative, high level insight to the contents
of a Moar Diagram.
Project initiation or scoping using the Method becomes a fast, outcome-focused activity.

Small projects may be managed and communicated through a single Moar Diagram.
A new analytical paradigm has emerged: Event Centred Risk Modelling (ECRM).
The PowerPoint Show of this presentation is available upon request.

Acknowledgements
The following business and risk management professionals kindly offered objective
and constructive feedback during the development of this new tool:

Richard Popplestone, Principal Consultant, Risktec Solutions Ltd


Pete Radcliffe, Independent Management Consultant, Ferryhouse Consulting Ltd
Paul Banford, Bioscience IP Ltd
The team at CGE Risk, with special thanks to Ben Keetlaer
Vicky Billingham, Business Leader for Training & Education, Risktec Solutions Ltd.

FEEDBACK

Your comments and criticisms will be very welcome.


Please write to: peter.moar@gmail.com
The PowerPoint Show of this presentation is available upon request.

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

Anticipating Your Questions


Question: The New Method incorporates positive effectors which improve the performance of drivers. Why are
there no negative effectors?
Answer: Negative effectors have been trialled. Intuitively, they are useful. However, the New Method is designed to
mirror the Bowtie method. The latter incorporates only one type of effector, known as an Escalation Factor.
Therefore, in order to mirror the Bowtie method only one type of effector has been adopted for the New Method.
During testing it was found that every negative effector upon a driver could, in fact, be re-written in the form of a
positive effector. Try it. It does work! For this reason, there are currently no negative effectors on a Moar Diagram.
Question: Is a condition equivalent to a requirement?
Answer: For many users of the New Method the term condition will be synonymous with requirement. However,
requirement has a specific meaning in professional project management, so to avoid confusion it has not been used
in this presentation, nor is it mentioned in the accompanying guide to the New Method.
Question: Is the New Method conducive to quantification?
Answer: The New Method is broadly qualitative (as is the Bowtie method). However, attempts have been made to
quantify Bowties, so similar attention will probably be given to models created by the New Method. Please publish or
share any attempts to do this.

The PowerPoint Show of this presentation is available upon request.

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

Anticipating Your Questions - continued


Question: Should drivers be listed in chronological order, from left to right?
Answer: This is not essential, although it is intuitive to do it this way. The modeller can choose between using the
order of expected start date or completion date. Chronology does not affect the overall purpose and value of a Moar
Diagram, which is primarily concerned with providing a visualization of risk and a reference point for stakeholders.
Question: Have you considered applying Event Centred Risk Modelling to lifecycle analysis?
Answer: This is a good idea and something which could be developed. It should be easy to indicate the points on
each lifecycle diagram where either Bowtie modelling or the New Method can be successfully applied. For example,
the New Method helps with project initiation and scoping, whereas the Bowtie method may be used during the
design phase of a project. We could also look at product lifecycles, asset lifecycles and change lifecycles.
Question: I am confused about the relationship between positive risk and opportunity risk?
Answer: You are not alone! This presentation has attempted to clearly define positive risk and contrast it with
negative risk, which seems quite easy. However, risk management theorists often use the phrases positive risk and
opportunity risk interchangeably, which implies synonymity, although they frequently discuss opportunity within the
context of negative outcomes (e.g. the opportunity for one outcome to be less negative than another). This is a
confusing area of risk management theory and has been purposely avoided within this presentation.

The PowerPoint Show of this presentation is available upon request.

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

Anticipating Your Questions - continued


Question: Why is it called the New Method? Is there a more meaningful or memorable name?
Answer: The naming of this technique has been problematic. It is inappropriate to call it either Positive Risk
Modelling (too generic) or Bowtie Modelling (closely associated with safety risk management). Fortunately, this
new method is not under the control of any authority. It is in the public domain and unprotected by patents, trade
marks or design rights. Its further development will be determined by personal preferences and professional
consensus. Users of the technique may adopt any name they choose.
Question: Have you considered applying this technique to Professor Erik Hollnagels risk management paradigm
known as Safety-2?
Answer: According to Hollnagel, the conventional approach to safety risk management focuses on unwanted events
and outcomes. This paradigm is known as Safety-1. Hollnagel argues that we can improve safety through a focus
upon desired events and outcomes. This positive mindset is referred to as Safety-2. Surely, it is reasonable to
assume that if the Bowtie method is effective in supporting Safety-1, then the New Method will support Safety-2.
However, Professor Hollnagel has kindly confirmed in writing that his theory cannot be represented by the type of
linear method of analysis shown here.

The PowerPoint Show of this presentation is available upon request.

About the Author


PJ Moar is a management consultant specialising
in business technologies, product innovation,
entrepreneurship and risk management. Peter is
based in the UK with substantial international
experience in many sectors.
Will your organisation benefit from the visualization of risk environments?
If so, contact Peter now to arrange your first ECRM workshops:
p.moar@moar.com

http://uk.linkedin.com/in/pmoar

Moar Ltd is a UK registered company No. 08281339

UK VAT Registration No. 152323738

Share the Benefits


Moar Diagrams are free to employ in any commercial or non-commercial context.
However, you are encouraged to share some of their benefits by supporting or
promoting one of the following international organisations:
Mines Advisory Group (MAG)
Working in more than 40 countries since 1989, MAG saves lives and builds futures by
reclaiming land contaminated with the remnants of conflict, such as landmines, cluster
munitions, bombs, shells and mortars. Please donate here:
http://www.maginternational.org/get-involved/donate

Challenges Worldwide (CWW)


Operating in some of the worlds poorest economies, CWW enables entrepreneurs and
enterprises to improve their skills and grow businesses, generating income and
sustainable economic growth. Visit CWW here:
http://www.challengesworldwide.org/

Thanks

The ECRM paradigm offers a unique commercial opportunity for software developers.
One simple modelling tool could supply four large markets:
Management consulting

Corporate management

Project management

Risk management

many millions of professional users worldwide.


Contact the author for free support in the development, testing and marketing of a
commercial ECRM application.
The PowerPoint Show of this presentation is available upon request.

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

The Software Challenge

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

Moar Diagrams

A revolution in business modelling?

Visualizing Success
The End
This presentation may be freely distributed and shared. However, no part may be sold or published
without the authors express permission. Please contact Peter Moar: peter.moar@gmail.com

Version Control: This is version 3.11, which may not be the latest. The latest version will be found on
Slideshare, accessible via this shortened link: http://tinyurl.com/Viz-Success

The PowerPoint Show of this presentation is available upon request.