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232

Part Two

Risk

The arbitrage pricing theory offers an alternative theory of risk and return. It states that the

expected risk premium on a stock should depend on the stocks exposure to several pervasive

macroeconomic factors that affect stock returns:

Here bs represent the individual securitys sensitivities to the factors, and rfactor rf is the risk

premium demanded by investors who are exposed to this factor.

Arbitrage pricing theory does not say what these factors are. It asks for economists to hunt

for unknown game with their statistical toolkits. Fama and French have suggested three factors:

The return on the market portfolio less the risk-free rate of interest.

The difference between the return on small- and large-firm stocks.

The difference between the return on stocks with high book-to-market ratios and stocks with

low book-to-market ratios.

In the FamaFrench three-factor model, the expected return on each stock depends on its exposure to these three factors.

Each of these different models of risk and return has its fan club. However, all financial economists

agree on two basic ideas: (1) Investors require extra expected return for taking on risk, and (2) they

appear to be concerned predominantly with the risk that they cannot eliminate by diversification.

Near the end of Chapter 9 we list some Excel Functions that are useful for measuring the risk

of stocks and portfolios.

FURTHER

READING

A number of textbooks on portfolio selection explain both Markowitzs original theory and some ingenious

simplified versions. See, for example:

E. J. Elton, M. J. Gruber, S. J. Brown, and W. N. Goetzmann: Modern Portfolio Theory and

Investment Analysis, 7th ed. (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2007).

The literature on the capital asset pricing model is enormous. There are dozens of published tests of the capital

asset pricing model. Fisher Blacks paper is a very readable example. Discussions of the theory tend to be more

uncompromising. Two excellent but advanced examples are Campbells survey paper and Cochranes book.

F. Black, Beta and Return, Journal of Portfolio Management 20 (Fall 1993), pp. 818.

J. Y. Campbell, Asset Pricing at the Millennium, Journal of Finance 55 (August 2000),

pp. 15151567.

J. H. Cochrane, Asset Pricing, revised ed. (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2004).

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Please see the preface for more information.

PROBLEM SETS

bre14172_ch08_213-240.indd 232

BASIC

1. Here are returns and standard deviations for four investments.

Return

Treasury bills

6 %

Standard

Deviation

0%

Stock P

10

14

Stock Q

14.5

28

Stock R

21

26

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Chapter 8

233

a. 50% in Treasury bills, 50% in stock P.

b. 50% each in Q and R, assuming the shares have

perfect positive correlation

perfect negative correlation

no correlation

c. Plot a figure like Figure 8.3 for Q and R, assuming a correlation coefficient of .5.

d. Stock Q has a lower return than R but a higher standard deviation. Does that mean that

Qs price is too high or that Rs price is too low?

2. For each of the following pairs of investments, state which would always be preferred by a

rational investor (assuming that these are the only investments available to the investor):

a. Portfolio A

Portfolio B

r 5 18%

r 5 14%

s 5 20%

s 5 20%

b. Portfolio C

Portfolio D

r 5 15%

r 5 13%

s 5 18%

s 5 8%

c. Portfolio E

Portfolio F

r 5 14%

r 5 14%

s 5 16%

s 5 10%

3. Use the long-term data on security returns in Sections 7-1 and 7-2 to calculate the historical

level of the Sharpe ratio of the market portfolio.

4. Figure 8.11 below purports to show the range of attainable combinations of expected return

and standard deviation.

a. Which diagram is incorrectly drawn and why?

b. Which is the efficient set of portfolios?

c. If rf is the rate of interest, mark with an X the optimal stock portfolio.

5. a. Plot the following risky portfolios on a graph:

Portfolio

A

10

12.5

15

16

17

18

18

20

23

21

25

29

29

32

35

45

FIGURE 8.11

r

B

See Problem 4.

rf

rf

C

C

s

(a)

bre14172_ch08_213-240.indd 233

(b)

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b. Five of these portfolios are efficient, and three are not. Which are inefficient ones?

c. Suppose you can also borrow and lend at an interest rate of 12%. Which of the above

portfolios has the highest Sharpe ratio?

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234

Part Two

Risk

d. Suppose you are prepared to tolerate a standard deviation of 25%. What is the maximum expected return that you can achieve if you cannot borrow or lend?

e. What is your optimal strategy if you can borrow or lend at 12% and are prepared to

tolerate a standard deviation of 25%? What is the maximum expected return that you

can achieve with this risk?

6. Suppose that the Treasury bill rate were 6% rather than 4%. Assume that the expected

return on the market stays at 10%. Use the betas in Table 8.2.

a. Calculate the expected return from Dell.

b. Find the highest expected return that is offered by one of these stocks.

c. Find the lowest expected return that is offered by one of these stocks.

d. Would Ford offer a higher or lower expected return if the interest rate were 6% rather

than 4%? Assume that the expected market return stays at 10%.

e. Would Exxon Mobil offer a higher or lower expected return if the interest rate were

8%?

7. True or false?

a. The CAPM implies that if you could find an investment with a negative beta, its

expected return would be less than the interest rate.

b. The expected return on an investment with a beta of 2.0 is twice as high as the expected

return on the market.

c. If a stock lies below the security market line, it is undervalued.

8. Consider a three-factor APT model. The factors and associated risk premiums are

Factor

Change in GNP

Risk Premium

5%

Calculate expected rates of return on the following stocks. The risk-free interest rate is 7%.

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b. A stock with average exposure to each factor (i.e., with b 1 for each).

c. A pure-play energy stock with high exposure to the energy factor (b 2) but zero exposure to the other two factors.

d. An aluminum company stock with average sensitivity to changes in interest rates and

GNP, but negative exposure of b 1.5 to the energy factor. (The aluminum company

is energy-intensive and suffers when energy prices rise.)

bre14172_ch08_213-240.indd 234

INTERMEDIATE

9. True or false? Explain or qualify as necessary.

a. Investors demand higher expected rates of return on stocks with more variable rates of

return.

b. The CAPM predicts that a security with a beta of 0 will offer a zero expected return.

c. An investor who puts $10,000 in Treasury bills and $20,000 in the market portfolio will

have a beta of 2.0.

d. Investors demand higher expected rates of return from stocks with returns that are

highly exposed to macroeconomic risks.

e. Investors demand higher expected rates of return from stocks with returns that are very

sensitive to fluctuations in the stock market.

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Chapter 8

235

10. Look back at the calculation for Campbell Soup and Boeing in Section 8.1. Recalculate the expected portfolio return and standard deviation for different values of x1 and

x2, assuming the correlation coefficient 12 0. Plot the range of possible combinations of expected return and standard deviation as in Figure 8.3. Repeat the problem for

12 .5.

11. Mark Harrywitz proposes to invest in two shares, X and Y. He expects a return of 12%

from X and 8% from Y. The standard deviation of returns is 8% for X and 5% for Y. The

correlation coefficient between the returns is .2.

a. Compute the expected return and standard deviation of the following portfolios:

Portfolio

Percentage in X

Percentage in Y

50

50

25

75

75

25

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c. Suppose that Mr. Harrywitz can also borrow or lend at an interest rate of 5%. Show on

your sketch how this alters his opportunities. Given that he can borrow or lend, what

proportions of the common stock portfolio should be invested in X and Y?

12. Ebenezer Scrooge has invested 60% of his money in share A and the remainder in share B.

He assesses their prospects as follows:

A

15

20

20

22

.5

Interest rate%

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

1.01

1.37

3.15

4.73

4.36

a. Calculate the average return and standard deviation of returns for Ms. Sauross portfolio and for the market. Use these figures to calculate the Sharpe ratio for the portfolio

and the market. On this measure did Ms. Sauros perform better or worse than the

market?

b. Now calculate the average return that you could have earned over this period if you had

held a combination of the market and a risk-free loan. Make sure that the combination

has the same beta as Ms. Sauross portfolio. Would your average return on this portfolio have been higher or lower?

Explain your results.

14. Look back at Table 7.5 on page 174.

a. What is the beta of a portfolio that has 40% invested in Disney and 60% in Exxon

Mobil?

bre14172_ch08_213-240.indd 235

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a. What are the expected return and standard deviation of returns on his portfolio?

b. How would your answer change if the correlation coefficient were 0 or .5?

c. Is Mr. Scrooges portfolio better or worse than one invested entirely in share A, or is it

not possible to say?

13. Look back at Problem 3 in Chapter 7. The risk-free interest rate in each of these years was

as follows:

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236

Part Two

Risk

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b. Would you invest in this portfolio if you had no superior information about the prospects for these stocks? Devise an alternative portfolio with the same expected return and

less risk.

c. Now repeat parts (a) and (b) with a portfolio that has 40% invested in Amazon and 60%

in Dell.

15. The Treasury bill rate is 4%, and the expected return on the market portfolio is 12%. Using

the capital asset pricing model:

a. Draw a graph similar to Figure 8.6 showing how the expected return varies with beta.

b. What is the risk premium on the market?

c. What is the required return on an investment with a beta of 1.5?

d. If an investment with a beta of .8 offers an expected return of 9.8%, does it have a positive NPV?

e. If the market expects a return of 11.2% from stock X, what is its beta?

16. Percival Hygiene has $10 million invested in long-term corporate bonds. This bond

portfolios expected annual rate of return is 9%, and the annual standard deviation is

10%.

Amanda Reckonwith, Percivals financial adviser, recommends that Percival consider

investing in an index fund that closely tracks the Standard & Poors 500 index. The index

has an expected return of 14%, and its standard deviation is 16%.

a. Suppose Percival puts all his money in a combination of the index fund and Treasury

bills. Can he thereby improve his expected rate of return without changing the risk of

his portfolio? The Treasury bill yield is 6%.

b. Could Percival do even better by investing equal amounts in the corporate bond portfolio and the index fund? The correlation between the bond portfolio and the index

fund is .1.

17. Epsilon Corp. is evaluating an expansion of its business. The cash-flow forecasts for the

project are as follows:

bre14172_ch08_213-240.indd 236

Years

100

110

15

The firms existing assets have a beta of 1.4. The risk-free interest rate is 4% and the expected

return on the market portfolio is 12%. What is the projects NPV?

18. Some true or false questions about the APT:

a. The APT factors cannot reflect diversifiable risks.

b. The market rate of return cannot be an APT factor.

c. There is no theory that specifically identifies the APT factors.

d. The APT model could be true but not very useful, for example, if the relevant factors

change unpredictably.

19. Consider the following simplified APT model:

Factor

Market

Expected Risk

Premium

6.4%

Interest rate

.6

Yield spread

5.1

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Chapter 8

237

Calculate the expected return for the following stocks. Assume rf 5%.

Factor Risk Exposures

Market

Interest Rate

Yield Spread

Stock

(b1)

(b2)

(b3)

1.0

2.0

.2

1.2

P3

.3

.3

.5

1.0

20. Look again at Problem 19. Consider a portfolio with equal investments in stocks P, P2,

and P3.

a. What are the factor risk exposures for the portfolio?

b. What is the portfolios expected return?

21. The following table shows the sensitivity of four stocks to the three FamaFrench factors.

Estimate the expected return on each stock assuming that the interest rate is .2%, the

expected risk premium on the market is 7%, the expected risk premium on the size factor

is 3.6%, and the expected risk premium on the book-to-market factor is 5.2%.

Johnson &

Johnson

Boeing

Dow Chemical

Microsoft

Market

0.66

0.54

1.05

0.91

Size

1.19

0.58

0.15

0.04

0.76

0.19

0.77

0.40

Book-to-market

CHALLENGE

Investment

b1

b2

1.75

.25

1.00

2.00

2.00

1.00

We assume that the expected risk premium is 4% on factor 1 and 8% on factor 2. Treasury

bills obviously offer zero risk premium.

a. According to the APT, what is the risk premium on each of the three stocks?

b. Suppose you buy $200 of X and $50 of Y and sell $150 of Z. What is the sensitivity of

your portfolio to each of the two factors? What is the expected risk premium?

bre14172_ch08_213-240.indd 237

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22. In footnote 4 we noted that the minimum-risk portfolio contained an investment of 73.1%

in Campbell Soup and 26.9% in Boeing. Prove it. (Hint: You need a little calculus to do so.)

23. Look again at the set of the three efficient portfolios that we calculated in Section 8.1.

a. If the interest rate is 10%, which of the four efficient portfolios should you hold?

b. What is the beta of each holding relative to that portfolio? (Hint: Note that if a portfolio

is efficient, the expected risk premium on each holding must be proportional to the

beta of the stock relative to that portfolio.)

c. How would your answers to (a) and (b) change if the interest rate were 5%?

24. The following question illustrates the APT. Imagine that there are only two pervasive macroeconomic factors. Investments X, Y, and Z have the following sensitivities to these two

factors:

6/25/10 9:07:47 PM

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238

Part Two

Risk

c. Suppose you buy $80 of X and $60 of Y and sell $40 of Z. What is the sensitivity of

your portfolio to each of the two factors? What is the expected risk premium?

d. Finally, suppose you buy $160 of X and $20 of Y and sell $80 of Z. What is your

portfolios sensitivity now to each of the two factors? And what is the expected risk

premium?

e. Suggest two possible ways that you could construct a fund that has a sensitivity of .5

to factor 1 only. (Hint: One portfolio contains an investment in Treasury bills.) Now

compare the risk premiums on each of these two investments.

f. Suppose that the APT did not hold and that X offered a risk premium of 8%, Y offered

a premium of 14%, and Z offered a premium of 16%. Devise an investment that has

zero sensitivity to each factor and that has a positive risk premium.

GLOBAL QUESTIONS

25. Can you tell which stock in Table 7.6 on page 203 has the highest CAPM rate of return?

If not, what more would you need to know to answer the question?

26. Look back to Table 7.9 on page 211. Consider an equal-weighted portfolio of the eight

stocks listed.

a. What is the beta of each stock relative to this portfolio? (Not the beta relative to the

market portfolio in its country or to a world market portfolio.)

b. Suppose the portfolio of eight stocks has an expected risk premium of 8%? Can you

pin down the expected risk premium for each stock? Why or why not?

c. One could calculate an efficient portfolio of the eight stocks. Would knowledge of this

efficient portfolio be helpful to an investor in designing a worldwide investment strategy?

REAL-TIME

DATA ANALYSIS

You can download data for the following questions from the Standard & Poors Market

Insight Web site (www.mhhe.com/edumarketinsight)see the Monthly Adjusted Prices

spreadsheetor from finance.yahoo.com.

Note: When we calculated the efficient portfolios in Table 8.1, we assumed that the

investor could not hold short positions (i.e., have negative holdings). The books Web site

(www.mhhe.com/bma) contains an Excel program for calculating the efficient frontier with

short sales. (We are grateful to Simon Gervais for providing us with a copy of this program.)

Excel functions SLOPE, STDEV, and CORREL are especially useful for answering the following questions.

Visit us at www.mhhe.com/bma

1.

bre14172_ch08_213-240.indd 238

2.

a. Look at the efficient portfolios constructed from the 10 stocks in Table 8.1. How does

the possibility of short sales improve the choices open to the investor?

b. Now download up to 10 years of monthly returns for 10 different stocks and enter them

into the Excel program. Enter some plausible figures for the expected return on each

stock and find the set of efficient portfolios.

Find a low-risk stockExxon Mobil or Kellogg would be a good candidate. Use monthly

returns for the most recent three years to confirm that the beta is less than 1.0. Now estimate

the annual standard deviation for the stock and the S&P index, and the correlation between

the returns on the stock and the index. Forecast the expected return for the stock, assuming

the CAPM holds, with a market return of 12% and a risk-free rate of 5%.

a. Plot a graph like Figure 8.5 showing the combinations of risk and return from a portfolio

invested in your low-risk stock and the market. Vary the fraction invested in the stock

from 0 to 100%.

b. Suppose that you can borrow or lend at 5%. Would you invest in some combination

of your low-risk stock and the market, or would you simply invest in the market?

Explain.

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